Could the next polls put Labour back in contention?
October 17th, 2008
What if Cameron’s no longer seen as Prime Minister-designate?
For reasons that I’ve never been able to fathom most of the regular monthly polls that we see in the UK are published in the final part of the month. So this weekend and in the days after that I am expecting at least two ComRes polls, two YouGov polls, one ICM survey and the October political monitor by Ipsos-MORI. There might be others including the non-registered BPIX.
One or possibly could come overnight.
The big question will be whether, and how large, Labour’s recovery has been and whether this has been at the expense of the Tories. It would certainly not be good for Labour if after this exceptional weke when Gordon has been feted round the globe as “the man who saved the world” if this was not reflected in the latest polling number.
For if Labour’s polling deficit is down into single figures then the commons seat calculators could be showing a hung parliament or even Labour with most seats. Thus poll shares of C40%-L35%-LD15% would suggest a commons with Labour the biggest party on 302 seats, the Tories on 294 with the Lib Dems on 25.If say two polls are in this vicinity then that could transform the whole political environment.
What to beware of when the polls come out:
My guess is that if there has been a sharp move to Labour then we’ll see quite a lot of movement on the commons seat spread-betting markets. I’ll certainly be waiting, logged on, ready to bet!
NOTE: Today’s Daily Politics Com Res poll, as usual, is of zero value. It is not past vote weighted, there is no element of filtering on certainty to vote and simply should not be put out in this form. The BBC should get a grip on its polling and insist on modern methodologies which ComRes do with their voting intention polls.
This is paid for by your licence fee and those interested in politics should expect better.
UPDATE 4.30pm SPREAD BETTING PRICES
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Yes
Actually, I mean “unlikely” but just wanted to be first and awkward
For Jan, previous thread….
284 Yes, it’s interesting how the Trackers have started to lean a bit back to McCain. I’m not sure why and I would happily accept the obvious explanation that he’s winning voters over were it not for the contrary indicators, for example in State polls like Missouri today.
I would also be happy to take the ‘value’ about McCain if I did not suspect that on the day the enthusiasm and organisation of Team Obama will be worth a couple of percentage points. This is not factored into the polls and is one reason why Anne Selzer thinks they actually understate That One’s advantage.
Interesting stuff. Still heavily greeen on Obama and not backing off - yet!
No chance at all of Labour pulling back - people arent swallowing this - from previous thread
No one that i speak to is in any way fooled by this Brown Saviour rubbish. No one. The Beeb can keep going all it likes, no one is going to believe it when we have the highest inflation for nearly 20 years and unemployment rocketing by 150,000 in a couple of months, before the current financial crisis. All major capital spend by most companies is now on hold and costs are being aggresively cut. The banks are pulling the plug on businesses and individuals left right and centre , bail out or not. The situation in the real economy is deteriorating very rapidly in the run up to Christmas and we’re only at an early stage in this downturn. We could easily see another 2 or 3 years of rising unemployment. I doubt very much whether in this scenario the government can claim “the green shoots of recovery” are appearing.
by James A October 17th, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Snap election, or would that be seen as bad form from Gordon when he should be saving the world 24/7?
Also from previous thread, and relevant:
292 - Brown will stay following a Glenrothes defeat (which may or may not happen) but should they lose, that’ll be it for the Labour Government.
Even a win may simply be delaying the inevitable.
A defeat for Labour in Glenrothes will psychologically damage them beyond repair. They are starting to at least believe that they’re getting some kudos and therefore votes over this.
A loss will be devastating to their current fightback
None voting intention questions and the Daily Politics.
How topical.
On one level, if Labour aren’t right back up there they are in trouble.
We have had Gordon the wonder man [?]
News black out from the Tories.
If that doesn’t do it, nothing will.
And if they lose Gelnrothes, thses polls won’t mean much.
Its the short term media narrative that is the problem for the Tories.
4. Whilst i’d agree a labour recovery in the polls could well be a “dead cat bounce” given the likely state of the economy/inflation/rocketing unemployment going forward, in the short term I think Mike is right and there will be a bounce in the polls.
As i say i’m not sure the position will last but in the short term i think Brown has come out of the last 2-3 weeks crisis with increased political capital, and much better than most global leaders. I’d expect the Tory lead to be down to a region of 6-9% in any polls this weekend.
4. I don’t know about that James. Plenty of people (including my non-Labour self) seem to think that Brown is giving the perception of doing a decent job in this crisis. Let’s see what the polls see.
You can quote facts all you like but “perception” is the key word here.
I expect any polls this weekend to show a half-decent single digit Tory lead.
If it’s neck and neck (or worse), I think we’ll see the knives coming out for Cameron and Osborne. Which would be an astonishing turn-around in less than a month.
But any major swing back to Labour will prove that the big Tory leads over recent months were pretty soft ones.
9 but i like to stick to facts, Stickers. They’re more reliable than the perception brought about by the deceitful spin which you so dearly love.
6: ‘A loss will be devastating to their current fightback’
Yes. Paradoxically losing the by-election would have been easier to shrug off when Brown was universally regarded as a blooper. Losing it as Superman however will surely mean curtains.
10 - the usual suspects will have the knives out for Cameron and Osbourne even if it’s a decent single digit lead.
They can’t use David Davis as the saviour this time, so it’ll have to be John Redwood
As the economists are always behind events, I predict over 2.5 million unemployed June 2009.
On that basis, if Labour wins a GE, pigs fly.
Its not the lead that matters. What matters is how well the Tory vote holds up.
If it does. Cameron has cracked it.
11. James, you’ll never win an election by relying on the facts
12. I agree. The stakes are higher now. They’d written it off anyway won’t wash anymore.
15 - This is my belief also. If the Tory vote is upwards of 42%, David Cameron has nothing to fear. If it’s south of 38%, the Tories are in trouble. If it’s in between those two, I’d say the Tories are still quite well-placed.
14 - 3 million plus unemployed didn’t help Kinnock. Mind you, neither did his own party.
15 - agreed. It’ll be interesting to see how many people have made their mind up already (which 40%+ for the Tories would do). If that’s the case, then attempts by Brown/Labour to try to woo them again could just simply harden their viewpoints
16 Oh. You a LibDem?
Given the initial positive press Brown got for his plan, it is inevitable that Labour will see a rise in the polling.
However, the news on unemployment, house repossessions, inflation, small business failures etc etc etc will eventually feed through into the polling.
The Conservatives have to play the long game. Labour will be tainted by economic failure once this initial (false) crisis phase has passed. That is the long term narrative.
What the polls say now is frankly irrelevant to the long term future of our country.
Also for Jan from the previous thread:
284 “I repeat my belief that the election will be tighter than current polls”
Jan - that being the case, do you think there’s value in one or more of Ladbrokes offerings below?
Obama to win (ECVs):
290-309 ………10/1
310-329 ………8/1
330-349 ………5/1
Equal bets on each of the above three bands produces effective odds of 2.55/1 to cover him winning the 60 ECVs as shown.
Lower bands are available if you feel really bearish about his prospects!
This is the most SNP-sympathetic editorial I have seen from the Scotsman Group in a long time:
‘SNP conference: Salmond needs to nail Brown’s laughable claim’
First, Mr Salmond, and indeed Tory leader David Cameron, need to nail Mr Brown’s laughable claim that he never actually said there would be no return to boom and bust and to remind him of his statement in 1997 that “I will not allow house prices to get out of control and put at risk the sustainability of the recovery”.
When the going got tough under Mr Blair, Mr Brown’s reputation for being Macavity, the cat who was never there, was much documented and once again he is trying to duck responsibility. But this time there’s no hiding place and Mr Salmond is too slick to let him get away with it.
To paraphrase Mr Cameron, now that the rescue ships have reached the harbour, the debate about how the ship hit the iceberg begins in earnest and this weekend Mr Salmond has the perfect platform from which to launch the assault.
http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/SNP-conference-Salmond-needs-to.4603187.jp
No. Yes they will be up in the polls. That does not mean they will be in contention as Brown will only go in 2010 because he has to and by then the ‘real’ economy will have tanked.
20. Not any more Sally. I couldn’t see the point in voting for a 3rd party who refuse to go into coalition. I now lean SNP but I’m more interested in the betting than politics these days.
16 - posts like that just make me realise why i never went into politics.
17. 18.
If the Tories have 40 or over in most of the polls, then that’s it.
I am not sure they will mind. Even the we just move on to Glenrothes which a potential banana skin and is not very far away
Yes, vote share is what matters. If the Conservatives are on
40%+, they’re heading for victory.
Unlikely Mike IMO…
… however if a “you can’t trust Cameron” meme begins to emerge then there might be a chance of a 1992esque campaign. Worth remembering thought that if even that was repeated and Dave did a Kinnock and knocked off 80seats from the Govt’s majority we’d be in hung parliament territory.
IMO Dave will have to do something pretty special to lose from here. Sadly.
13
Sorry you’ve broken the, ‘unwritten law’ you must not mention John Redwood, the usual suspects will shortly go onto the attack.
Everyone is totally confused about everything at the moment, and the polls will reflect that.
I expect a modest Labour improvement they’ll be on 33/34, the Tories might just hang onto 40%. Vince Cable, could be the Libdems saving grace, he’s been on TV quite a lot and has been impressive, he certainly had the better showing on PMQ’s. So think perhaps the Libdems’ might be cheered up by the polls.
At the moment though predictions are really, ‘leading with the chin’
As I’ve said over the last week, I’m expecting the lead to be down to high single figures. Most people (whatever Janes A might wish) are giving us credit for good crisis leadership, and floating voters are now pretty open-minded about how they’ll vote next time. That’s not the same as a mad rush of enthusiasm - if the lead in any poll is under 5% I’ll be very surprised. And conversely, if they’re over 10% I’ll be disappointed.
As for Glenrothes, I’m not sure it’ll be as seminal as all that. If we win, it’ll be spun as ‘relief, but still big swing against Labour’ (I don’t know anyone who expects us to increase our majority!); if we lose, we’ll say ‘that’s by-elections, but the swing is less than Glasgow’ (as I’m pretty sure it will be). Life will go on either way: politics is nearly *always* more of a long haul than commentators suggest.
I need some more data for my studies, please.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/avgame.xls
Mike I don’t know what forecasting engine you are using but it’s not very good!
40:35:15 is more likely to produce something like..
Con 289
Lab 287
LD 34
Nats 19
Oth 3
NI 13
Brian Taylor, BBC Scotland’s political editor:
As billed, John Swinney duly turned defence into attack at the SNP conference in Perth. He confirmed a series of measures to benefit the Scottish economy, such as one hundred per cent rates relief for the smallest businesses. Then he opened out into condemning Labour and the Prime Minister, in particular. Instead of Superman, Mr Swinney views Gordon Brown as his alter-ego: mild-mannered, bumbling Clark Kent. Labour’s financial credibility, according to Mr Swinney, “stands in tatters.”
Privately, SNP strategists here in Perth say they’re surprised that Mr Brown engaged in an attack upon the SNP (in a BBC Scotland interview) so soon after welcoming consensus towards the economic recovery package. They say that, by doing so, he opened himself to attacks which would not have been possible had he remained perched on his pedestal.
Well, maybe.
Me, I think that Labour detestation of the SNP is visceral.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/briantaylor/2008/10/superman_or_clark_kent.html
IMHO it is Scottish Labour’s ‘visceral’ hatred of the Scottish National Party which will sink their own party, and the Union with it.
When Nat-Basher-in-Chief Jim Murphy starts foaming at the mouth then they will shed voters by the tens of thousands.
Jonathan - do you see any shoots of recovery in the Labour Party? Any talented young politicians who the brown brigade have not managed to nobble?
How are the spread-betters responding to all this?
Cameron’s speech has received some positive feedback on the internet. I wonder if that might affect any polls that haven’t concluded their research yet.
I would predict a high single figure lead for the Tories atm.
Expect a Labour increase and think we might see a fall to 40% or just below for Conservatives.
Was disappointed with Cameron’s seech because I think he now needs to be using Gordon’s words against him. The ‘no more boom & bust’, ‘won’t repeat house price bubble” and perhaps more importantly to compare the IMF and BoE warnings over years with Gordons statement that international and other institutions failed to warn of risk. Get hard on Gordon now and repeat for 18 months.
i think if asked the question “do you think Brown has handled the crisis in a positive manner” you may get a different answer with “does this change how you intend to vote at the next election”
which i gues for most would be a no , including the swingers. People want change, as the locals, London, by-elections, etc show. Nothing else has changed - apart from that things have got a whole lot worse.
Mike Smithson thanks for originally pointing out the faults of the politics/Com Res poll last time and thanks for rightly slamming the ineptitude of the BBC Daily Politics show in the article above. Of course Anita Anand is even more inexperienced than most BBC journalists in what makes a reliable poll.
Have Labour closed the gap? Yes. How much will it be down to? I would guess a 7 to 10 point gap. Who will that pose problems for? Maybe the LDs because that is the party losing more polling vote share. If we see them nearer to 10 than 15 watch the pressure mount on Clegg. Back in 97 the party trusted more to run the economy was the Conservatives…. Glenrothes is Gordon’s real big test.
What is interesting from a media narrative point of view is the way most commentators still expect Brown to encounter problems from the recession.
They COULD get carried away when they see the results I suppose. Its not like they don’t have form. They will no doubt qote the pollster which puts Labour in the best position - the exact opposite of what they should do.
But if they think the recession more than likely will trip Brown up then the media will still think that there is a good chance Cameron is on his way to Downing Street.
Put it another way, if this doesn’t do wonders for Brown, then they know Brown will definately will not win an general election.
The very substantial hike in Labour support since their conference simply shows just how volatile political opinion is at present. I suspect this principally is an expression of relief more than anything else. Relief that we still have a banking system in this country (at least for now), no matter (for now) just how incredibly bad all the other indicators may appear.
I suspect Labour’s support will hold up for another few weeks, maybe until Christmas, before crashing to new lows in Q1 next year.
There could soon be some great opportunities on the GE Seats spread-betting markets if I am correct.
36.”Cameron’s speech has received some positive feedback on the internet. I wonder if that might affect any polls that haven’t concluded their research yet.”
I am going to stick my neck and say that the media narrative, and that is what it is, has decoupled from the public on this crisis.
Just as mortgage rates decoupled from the base rate.
[15] - That’s what the recent polls over the conference period looked like. It seemed as though Labour were winning back some Lib Dem voters as a way of stopping the Tories.
Although I think the opinion polls are often given undue prominence, Nick Clegg will also be hoping for an increase in his rating.
42.Stick my neck out. Arggh, my keyboard keeps sticking when trying to type a quick post!
Agree with #18 in how poll averages will be received.
42 - You’re brave, but you might be right. The main emotion I’ve encountered is anger on spending all this money on rich bankers.
Its irrelevant. The Tory party will not kill off Cameron, the Brown bounce will fade as more people lose jobs and houses and an early election is as likely as a rush to buy mortgage backed derivatives.
Immaterial polls, Tories down, Labour up, 2010 election, Labour crushed as they deserve.
46. Hence why Cameron was so right to focus on “no bonuses for bankers” imo.
Here’s another take on last thread’s “Joe the Plumber” story:
http://politicallydrunk.blogspot.com/2008/10/demonizing-joe-plumber-obama-campaign.html
I guess we Americans are now all warned what we’re in for if we manage to publicly challenge Obama or his Government in the coming years: systematic destruction and humiliation at the hands of the media. We know this doesn’t work both ways because, for instance, what have we ever heard about the background of that woman from Wasilla who made so many allegations about Palin? Let’s all be quiet now and steer clear of any danger, and maybe a democracy will reemerge after some period of time, just like in Venezuela…
35 - I was suprised today that Yvette Cooper had the cheek to say that the opposition had gone back on their word for bi-partisanship support of economic rescue measures. Firstly because they stated they still fully supported the measures. But secondly GB used the last questions (i.e. no reply) to get partisan on DC last week, what did they expect - everyone to roll over?
49. Attacking him will backfire big time imo. Just a guess.
31. Whatever Nick might wish I have spoken to no one fooled by the Labour spinners and the BBC. Brown is part of the problem not the solution and he ceratinly is directly responsible for how bad the crisis is in Britain compared to other territories. Brown’s debt fuelled profligate boom is trurning into catastrophic bust and not even the Beeb and the odious AListair Campbell is going to help him hide from that.
Labour may well receive a short bounce thank to the sycophantic spinning of their chums in the Beeb but it will be no more than a welsh mist.
Frankly if any of the polls still have the Tories on double digit lead and Labour are not ahead in any of them, that’s a result.
Bob, I disagree on the knives out for Cameron thing.
People will moan on the blogs [esp. Toryhome]. And behind their Daily Telegraphs.
The panic merchants will do their stuff. But Cameron isn’t one of them.
But he is completely safe. And these people will vote Tory anyway, whatever.
I agree with Nick Palmer when he says people underestimate the cvlaue of the long game. The trouble for them is they haven’t decided what to do yet and they are slowly running out of time.
I have no idea as to what a new set of polls will show, but I do know there is more and more evidence that Brown has a tiger by the tail, and the disappointment with the reality of a recession is going to be enormous.
Look at the current Daily Mail story, “A third of homeowners think the value of their property has not been affected by the recent housing market downturn, research shows.
Around 32 per cent of people said they thought their home was worth either the same or more than it was 12 months ago, according to property valuation site Zoopla.co.uk.”
i think the media / westminster bubble is out of step with the public on this and i think sticking my neck out , the polls will be a surprise, not showing a bounce for Labour of any real substance, if at all.
People arent that stupid and all this blaming everyone else for our problems over and over and over and over again that Brown and team are indulging, will not wash.
People are suffering now with massively higher debts than they had in the 80s and simply cant service them even at low interest rates. so the “high interest rates under Tories” wont wash either.
The reposession courts report that “high interest rates” are never, ever, cited in a pleading in repo hearings - its nearly always the unemployment or divorce, and its been this way through many, many recessions.
The “strange triumphalism” of Brown at a very grim time has also got people’s backs up and they know when they are being spun to.
54. That 32% is where the Labour bounce comes from.
41 …. then again, if I’m wrong and Labour’s increased support really is here to stay, then the odds (Ladbrokes’ 2.5/1, Betfair’s 2.65/1) for a “No Overall Majority” outcome at the next GE look outstanding. You pays your money …..
Always remember, the Tories need a minimum net gain of 115 seats even on the new boundaries to achieve an overall majority - a big ask.
As Gordon is lauded across the globe by Nobel prize winners and heads of state alike, Cameron and the Tories are staring into the abyss. Their dire poll rating over the last few days are set to worsen. Cameron’s backbenchers, who have been despairingly watching Gordon and Alistair’s triumphs with envious eyes, are already in open revolt over the Heathrow third runway and a vote of no confidence in the leadership is all but inevitable. The only question now is who will the Tories want as leader of the opposition during Labour’s historic fourth term. To me, Ken Clarke would be effective and is the Tories best chance in at least keeping to manageable levels Labour’s fifth-term majority; though by then he could turn out to be a John McCain to (probably) Ed Miliband’s Obama.
Of course the polls may close, especially with Brown’s lie in claiming credit for the ‘Swedish’ bailout plan (only Brown could try such a blatant con trick). That the media let him get away with it is amazing. It’s like the porkies that Blair use to come out with.
I still remember Blair coming on the news in 1997, looking at the camera straight and saying Ecclestone’s donation had nothing to do with withdrawing the ban on tabacco advertising. We now know this was a blatant lie (the decision was actually made at a meeting with Ecclestone it’s now been revealed).
To think we are handing out taxpayers money so that that bankers can sit at their desks doing nothing - this is what Brown is really doing, as banks aren’t being allowed to fail any more.
I don’t think the bailout plan will be anything but unpopular in the medium term. When we go into recession, and money is tight people want the money spent on themselves, not on idle bankers!
I suspect the polls will show we are still firmly in two party politics.
SNP support and membership ‘growing’
Andrew Pyle, who is celebrating his 18th birthday, was presented with his membership card by First Minister Alex Salmond at the party’s annual conference.
http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5jzhBV3aVPuGq2uneshT2j8stJZHQ
What is the Scottish Labour Party at now? About 13,000?
Scottish Tories? About 12,000?
Scottish Lib Dems? About 4,000?
The SNP has never been the largest political party by membership before. A great watershed.
Certainly I have been stuck by the dissonance between the main media outlets and their Saviour of the World stuff, and the audience on Queston Time, Five Live and the emails read out on the panorama programme.
People I know simply can’t bring themselves to talk about Brown, and some of them wear red rosettes. But that might just be me, so I’ll stick to the voxpop bits.
58 — certifiable!
As I stated earlier there will be some tightening around now, the plumber stuff will accentuate this for a day or so but, slowly as corrections are apt to be, this will change when the fact that it was based on a lie becomes more commmon knowledge.
You really have to wonder how the McCain campaign can use, as their main point in the final debate, someone who they claim is neutral but who turns out to be someone who registered Republican and who is a tax dodger. It beggars belief that they hadn’t checked this out.
58 I see satire is alive and well
I love it - Brown spends billions of taxpayers’ money to prop up the banks, as he’s acclaimed by the media as a genius??? Given the alternative was to let the banks collapse all he did was choose the lesser of two evils. Hardly the work of a mastermind.
[54] - Really?
Psychologists have a lot of fun explaining this sort of thing. It’s an ostrich-like survival mechanism.
63
I dont think he needs certifying, he probably is already..
58 - Hooray, the return of Adrian Harper! All we need now is Brian Dead to fire off a missive and all will be well with the world.
50. i thought the bipartisanship was meant to be because we needed a plan to save the country’s economy, rather than some petty tit-for-tat ceasefire?
59.
‘When we go into recession, and money is tight people want the money spent on themselves, not on idle bankers!’
Those interviewed today about Northern Rock repossesions were saying much the same.
The media narrative has only just started to be more analytical. Its only just started creeping into the TV media.
These polls will have been conducted too early.
It just might be hang on to your pants time for the Tories.
Nemtynakht - have you deliberately come up with as difficult a new name as possible?
51- Unfortunately, Americans seem to be largely of a mentality right now that there is no such thing as going too far in championing the Democratic cause. Such moments are historically dangerous because they set precedents for behavior to come. Setting the precedent that it is okay to systematically destroy the one guy who manages to poke his head out of the crowd and challenge an elected leader with a real question sets a tone hostile to free speech and democracy, and creates a very real chilling effect for people who might take a notion to ask any similar real questions were they to have the opportunity to do so.
PA reports:Labour gained in the latest council by-elections amid further signs of the Brown bounce in the financial crisis.
Party candidate Cathy Scott took a former BNP seat at Dewsbury East, Kirklees Borough, West Yorkshire.
However the previous councillor had become independent before he resigned.
Labour, which won another of the ward’s seats in May’s main polls, did see its majority cut by a Liberal Democrat surge from third place.
The declaration came today after a daytime count.
Analysis of four comparable results this week gives a projected nationwide line up of C 39.4%, Lab 29.9%, Lib Dem 23.7%.
The 9.5% Tory margin was down 1% on last week.
Earlier Lib Dems lost a seat to independent at Churchdown Brookfield, Tewkesbury Borough, Gloucestershire.
But they also recovered one at Tudor, Watford Borough, Hertfordshire after the resignation of a former party councillor who had become an independent.
RESULTS:
Kirklees Borough - Dewsbury East: Lab 1513, Lib Dem 1405, BNP 690, C 345, Green 58, Ind 17, Ind 15. (May 2008 - Lab 2090, BNP 1467, Lib Dem 1087, C 657). Lab gain from Ind. Swing 8.1% Lab to Lib Dem.
Redcar and Cleveland Borough - South Bank: Lab 652, Lib Dem 288, BNP 206, Ind 101, C 59. (May 2007 - Three seats Lab 874, 852, 751, Ind 260, BNP 249, C 179, Lib Dem 169, 138, 45). Lab hold. Swing 7.8% Lab to Lib Dem.
Tewkesbury Borough - Churchdown Brookfield: Ind 598, Lib Dem 508, C 364, Lab 62. (May 2008 - Two seats Lib Dem 751, 727, Ind 688, 388, C 336, 313, Lab 93, 70). Ind gain from Lib Dem. Swing 7.6% Lib Dem to C.
Watford Borough - Tudor: Lib Dem 932, C 486, Lab 273, Green 91, BNP 83. (May 2008 - Lib Dem 847, C 695, Lab 192, Green 72). Lib Dem gain from Ind. Swing 7.7% C to Lib Dem.
46.”42 - You’re brave, but you might be right. The main emotion I’ve encountered is anger on spending all this money on rich bankers.”
The media are concentrating on Brown the superman saviour of the Financial markets, the stock market going up and down like a yoyo, all the while trying to weave in their own opinion of what the Tories or the Libdems should be doing right in amongst all the excitement.
The public get it, there is a recession coming, and its been a nasty sharp wake up call.
Quiet simple, they have already moved on to the more pressing matter of how its all going to effect them individually and locally in their area.
The Mail describes Mandy’s Russian friend:
” But there is another side to him, with the FBI having asked the U.S. State Department to cancel his American visa. Currently, he is denied entry to the United States. Yet now, over caviar and blini, the tycoon was debating with the EU’s trade supremo such esoteric matters as Russian timber tariffs and the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
We know this because there was a third diner at their table - Mandelson’s old friend and former Westminster aide Benjamin Wegg-Prosser, now a Moscow-based internet tycoon. “
Who is Adrian Harper — Gabble without the FTSE fixation?
58 spin and more spin, total nonsense. Labour leaning people in the political bubble underestimate the real anger out there about the mess this country hasended up in, worse than others because of our high debts levels which the government did nothing to reign in. and they’re not that stupid when told living standards are rising when they can see around them, that they are actually falling, fast. and that’s just for those not yet made redundant.
We have more outstanding credit card debt in the UK than the rest of Europe combined. And as much if not more debt per head than the States, without the balance and scale of their economy. We are also 18 months to 2 years behind them in the bursting of our housing market bubble.
Star prize for the person who can guess how this ends?
Just to stir things up a tad!!!
George Osborne will lose the Tories the next election if he’s still in the position of Chancellor on polling day.
Everybody and their dog can see this
70 sorry ed but miss your point
Labour openly criticise opposition last week at PMQs and also at 42 day detention ‘emergency’. They also openly claim the opposition doesn;t have a plan, yet they are supporting the governement for the good of the country. And when they criticise GBs economic record over 10 years but state they support the bank rescue they get accused of not being bi-partisan. Mind you cooper would struggle to frame an argument against a five year old.
Unconfirmed Rasmussen tracker - M-46/O-50. No change.
[66] - You’re being slightly unfair, after all Brown was the first of our current bunch of world leaders to propose this method. In the US they were going to do something else - just buy the bad debt for a high price. The prospects of outright bank collapses to follow that of Lehman’s have receded for the immediate future.
Sometimes, when faced with the choice of two evils, people do actually choose the worst.
79 Herbert - you pose quite a difficult proposition for him to achieve.
72 - someone suggested it when it was said that my posts and ChrisD’s posts were getting mixed - it is something egyptian and I just copied and pasted to be honest. Hopefully it is not something offensive and I have been stitched up.
I can;t spell it myself and added the formerly known as so i could look up my own posts more easily.
Borwn got quite alot of ’superhero’ stickers’ when they put his cut out in London [another good use of licence payers money on the Daily Politics].
But he got more ‘zeros’ than ‘heros’.
One chap punched it.
I think we are in a period when politics will be polarised between those who see today’s troubles as being partly Labour’s fault and those who don’t and/or who depend on the state one way or another.
In the long run, some in the state sector will find their jobs go anyway.
To paraphrase S&S’s #73 post:
“When *we* do it, it’s fully justifiable and at worst over-zealous (a la McCarthy).
When *they* do it, it’s the beginning of the end of democracy in America.”
81. appears to be no real bounce for obama from the third and final debate, nothing from ras, r2000 or zogby
Latest Diageo/Hotline tracker :
McCain 40% .. Obama 50%
Note - Yesterday - M-41/O-49.
http://www.nationaljournal.com/hotline/dailytracker/
77 - Adrian Harper is our most subtle spoof poster, easily misunderstood if not read carefully!
Hague should be Shadow Chancellor, the problem is he would over shadow Cameron.
I have said on prevous occasions Willam Hague is the best P.M.this country never had IMHO.
Timothy according to the French Finance minister the ‘Brown plan’ was outlined at the Group of Four meeting on 4th October in Paris by the US Treasury Sec.
He got it, as did Cameron, from the Swedes. The Americans and Cameron had the decency to give a hat tip to the Scandinavians. The Saviour of the World simply stole it and called it his own genius.
Adrian Harper where have you been lately, the site is not the same without these pearls of wisdom. Now where is the professor….
Rasmussen tracker numbers at 81 confirmed :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
79 if darling can be chancellor
87 & 88
A study in bad timing…
They will be up and down depending on who it is for the next week or so, they might stabilise before the end but the nature of trackers emphasises this movement. Personally I tend to look at the major two because of sample size but also standalone national polls.
[77] - “Adrian Harper” has made some priceless posts in his time, has something of a reputation as a satirist on here.
See, for example, this priceless post at #27 last year:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/07/26/is-an-early-election-the-cautious-approach/
“…Perhaps Dave [Cameron] should be persuaded from standing as an MP at the next election if the Tories don’t want to loose that seat as well.”
89 He’s very good.
Wonder if there will be as many comrades on here in a few months. They seem to be coming out of the woodwork as Labour seem to creep back out of their lows.
After the effects of the economy are felt over Christmas, and massive retail closures and redundancies in Q1 2009, I think we will be back down to Gabble and coldstone.
85.”I think we are in a period when politics will be polarised between those who see today’s troubles as being partly Labour’s fault and those who don’t and/or who depend on the state one way or another.”
That is what I am wondering Sally, are we going to see a polarisation between Labour and the Conservatives in the next set of polling figures? And will it be narrowing of the gap in the centre ground, or will it be a hardening of Labour’s core vote while the Tories prove their support in the marginals is anything but soft?
Labour have been saying the last couple of weeks that there’ll be no cuts. if this is true, then we can expect borrowing to now go through the roof. interest rates will be cut but the currency will devalue as the country becomes relatively more of an economic basket case than most other western nations. people will be poorer, and we will import inflation from overseas. Labour won’t reign in borrowing lest their massive new client state will revolt. Back to square one, 30 years ago. International embarrassment and poverty beckon.
[91] - Er, yes, I knew that the “Swedish model” had been discussed in the media as a possible solution before Brown implemented it. However, he was the first to take the idea and run with it this time around, making it easier for others to follow.
66
‘The art of politics is the ability to choose between the disasterous and the unpalatable’
J K Galbraith.
54
There is of course this view of the ‘recession’
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/oct/17/britishidentity-gordonbrown
If you are fortunate to keep your job, (most will) this can be a ‘good time’ inflation and interest rates will drop sharply, some people will benefit, in fact the majority will.
There’ll be casualties, but the recession will not last forever, the political fall out for the government, may no be as big as some expect.
Latest Battleground tracker :
McCain 45% .. Obama 49%
Note - Yesterday - M-44/O-50.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/BG_101708_2-way-ballot-trender.pdf
78 I’m coming to conclusion that Cameron should have been much harder in his conference speech and at PMQs, saying he would work with Government and support necessary actions to stabilise the markets but that this was a disaster for Britain, the culmination of Brown’s disastrous chancellorship. He accepted the press narrative that the crisis required a measured response, which at the time I went along with, but Gordon’s exultant PR driven metamorphosis to Superman shows that Cameron let him off the hook.
Last Tuesday was a greater disaster than Black Wednesday, a similar failure of Government economic policy, and should have been hung round Gordon’s neck. Leaving the ERM was the right thing to do, it was the base of recovery, it stabilised markets but John Smith didn’t criticise it, he recognised that it was the report card on Major’s policies and showed the depth of their failure. Maybe too late but Cameron & Osborne need to find a name that resonates for last Tuesday - Bail-out Tuesday perhaps - and continually refer to it as a day of failure.
97.Yes, he is so good that more than a few of the regulars on here have fallen hook, line and sinker at some point. I know I have..
80. they are the ones dealing with the situation. they can say what they like as far as i am concerned as long as the actions are the right ones.
if the Cons are saying they will be bipartisan and not criticise (the wrong idea IMHO, i think there has never been a more important time for opposition scrutiny), they should probably stick to it.
98
I’ve never gorn away, Labour’s travails will not affect my posts I can assure you. If i don’t post it won’t be because of that, it’ll be ‘cos I’m otherwise engaged.
Evidence if BBC extravagance and disrespect for the licence payer grows. Brillo, Portillo and that other woman they have on, are all off to the giant Obama victory party with half of the Newsnight mob, Five Live including the cat, the newsroom and Uncle Tom Cobley and all.
Compare that to the commercial operators who have to earn a living.
Who will give the best coverage?
98. It will not be that bad. As someone on here said, Brown will sort it out by ordering sales after Christmas.
well that abot raps it up for the Tories — thye are finished the tories are finished i say!
dave Cemera On and George ‘Gideon’ Osbourbe have been absent without leave while gordon brown and alistair darling have privatised the banks of the world!! A triumph plane and simple. andf dont just trust me you tories — the man who won the Nobel prize for literature [Harold Pinter] said Gordona nd alistair were saviours and the US man Hank Marvin shodld take note!
Even tories I know are disgusted with Camara-On and the boy ‘Gideon’: Where have they bean they demand? Where indeed. ha ha ha ha haha!!!
“The majority of people will benefit from a recession.”
Now you’re just being plain stupid.
Test
58 - only just seen it - funniest post this month - so far.
106 - Your post is internally inconsistent. If you believe that there has never been a more important time for opposition scrutiny, then the Conservatives should abandon their bipartisanship.
Timothy afraid not, it was a UK banker who ran with it, drafted it and bullied the Saviour of the World to do something. And even then he left Darling and team and bankers to work overnight. He went to bed.
ps - been watching Murray pulverize Monfils. Great fun.
For the punters here, wouldn’t it be great if all the large online bookies had a specific category entitled “Politics”, so that one wasn’t forced to go through “Specials”, followed by geographical or other sub-categories to arrive at a particular market?
Are you listening Aaron?
49-S&S-Very disturbing-Just like the 1st year of Labour Govt.,attack anyone who dares to disagree with the message accompanied by a complicit media in thrall to everything & you have a “police state ” in effect.
I agree that it’s too soon to say how all the current events will work out in terms of voting intention or indeed actual votes. The media’s fixation on the ultra short term and on leads rather than vote share makes most of the commentary even more useless. One possibility to take very seriously is that the crisis in finance and the coming recession will not benefit any party but simply add to a general disillusionment with the entire political class. You might be able to get good odds on turnout at the next GE right now - I would not be surprised to see it go down.
Another point is that the Guardianistas are getting very excited right now about a possible return of socialism. The thinking is:
This is a crisis of market capitalism
This will make people lose faith in market capitalism
Therefore they will turn to socialism
but of course the conclusion doesn’t follow - there’s an additional premiss that there is only one alternative to the present system. As Vince Cable has pointed out in the NS, the more likely beneficiary is nationalist state capitalism.
102 coldstone are you still at school or something? or have any financial committments?
for every 1 person made redundant 10 fear for their jobs. it is harder to make money in a recession when your suppliers contractors and customers don’t have cash or dont pay you.
Inflation ISNT going down at the moment, it is forecast to do so in the next couple of years. Try saving some cash at the moment - great if you can. most people can’t , indeed are cash negative.
Recessions are generally good. For the very rich. For everyone else it’s a piece of shit.
113. two separate points. i never thought the bipartisan approach was the right one, but having selected that approach they should stick with it, or they will end up in the worst of both worlds. stuck in a punch and judy slanging match, but with no ammo because they didn’t oppose at the key time.
114. Alone?
106 ed I can only assume you are deliberately misunderstanding.
Obama supported the bail out in the US. He didn’t try and mess it about for political reasons. But that does not mean all hostilities are off.
Nor does it mean for Cameron that if yoyur opponents rejects your hand you have to keepit out.
In this case, Cameron will be soft on the bailout, butnot the rest.
I know the only way you will get off the hook is for everyone to write you a blank cheque. But you are not going to get it.
Enjoy your polls for now.
Republicans complaining about the US turning into a police state, RAOTFLMAO!
120 - You can’t split the points out like that. Either you think it’s really important to have opposition scrutiny, or you don’t. If you do, then the Tories should be strongly discouraged from continuing with what you regard as their past tactical error.
86- Who said the McCarthy inquiries were right? Me? You? You’re beginning with a flawed premise, so you’re wrong.
[114] - Witan, going by the opinions of many posters to this site, going to bed and leaving Darling to sort it out was the best thing Brown could have done. It showed an extraordinary level of self-awareness…
On the subject of what the BBC spend the licence fee on, how about some good old-fashioned political balance? Just about every other year I can remember, BBC Scotland has provided at least two days’ worth of live coverage from the SNP conference. This year, mysteriously, there appears to be absolutely nothing. After the extensive coverage given to the Labour conference (not to mention the free publicity Gordon Brown has been getting on a nightly basis ever since) it’s outrageous that the SNP aren’t being given fair and equivalent treatment.
They do have a three-minute Party Conference Broadcast tonight. I hope for their sake they make it a good one, because it somehow has to balance out about twenty hours’ worth of Labour coverage.
119 How long before people start asking why prices are not fallimg when the rate of inflation goes down?
It always happens. The economic ignorance of the nation is staggering
If you know/believe that violent crime has gone through the roof in the last eleven years then you’ll know/believe that the coming recession will be worse than any we’ve had for a long time.
110
The 1930’s was a time of stable prices and improving standards of living. The areas that suffered were the tradional industries such as coal mining etc.
In the Midlands the car manufactering industry was founded, Cowley etc. In London and the South East unemployment was low and the ‘new industries’ producing electrical goods boomed. Places like Slough sucked in labour from all over the country, particularly from the valleys of South Wales.
Only certain parts of the country were, ‘depressed’ the rest of the UK boomed.
“Who said the McCarthy inquiries were right? Me?”
You’ve certainly flirted with that position.
123- Again, what angle are you coming at this from? Since you don’t seem to share our concern, I take it you’re in the totalitarian camp and favor systematic silencing of dissent as long as it furthers the correct ideology.
Doesn’t seem the right of centre types thought much of Cameron speech this morning. Nelson at the Speccy and Guido both posted basically stating “Is That It”.
Be interesting to see if as the Tories start to appear more and more to bash Brown, if they can make it stick and propose something different. I think on a lot of other issues the “no Tory policy” claim isn’t particularly true, I am pretty sure that they have thought up a load of stuff to counter what they would say is Labour’s failings over the past 10 years (if they are any good is another matter), and will be plastered with them come the election. However on the economic issues, I think they are having to rewrite any plans they had as we speak. Before the bubble burst I think people thought the economy is ok, but there are lots of social problems that need addressing. The government sound like they have completely run out of any idea of how to do anything different, so any suggestion of some sensible change was gaining a lot of traction.
Post past two weeks, Osbourne for me is the crucial, and IMO weak, link that could make or break it now for the Tories. He doesn’t have the same smoothness of Cameron during tv interviews, and often sounds lost (rather than boring in the case of Brown or Darling) when really pushed on economic matters. I assume Cameron is going to stick with him, thus the Tories are going to have to get him well briefed and really up his game, otherwise for all the progress Cameron has made neutralizing the “nasty” party tag and being more reasonable sounding (then say Howard of IDS) the election could easily be turned into a single issue game.
‘We will provide cash for council tax freeze, Swinney says’
http://news.scotsman.com/latestnews/We-will-provide-cash-for.4604510.jp
‘SNP call for review of stamp duty charge’
http://www.theherald.co.uk/news/news/display.var.2461309.0.SNP_call_for_review_of_stamp_duty_charge.php
The “”New York Times” reports that McCain is looking for a narrow victory strategy :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17campaign.html?_r=2&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
119
I’ve lived through more than my fair share of recessions, I always survived,(until I accepted early retirement) as did just about everybody I knew.
“Only certain parts of the country were, ‘depressed’ [in the 30s] the rest of the UK boomed.”
So history books need to be rewritten — substitute “Great Depression” with “Roaring 30s”.
Totally agree with you Mike regarding the ridiculous poll shown by the Labour Broadcasting Society aka the BBC, their mission in life to keep Labour in power is being seriously cranked up another notch. The way that the question is worded ‘Putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn? it is completely & utterly irrelevant, other than the fact that people would struggle to put party differences aside don’t the pollsters realise that only the current economic team in power is able to deal with the current problems so why do they continue to ask this question - the question asking people who do they trust the most to run the economy in general shows Cameron/Osborne leading Brown/Darling & has done for quite a while now.
The BBC should hang their heads in shame because I don’t believe for one second that Comres have only asked one polling question – what about the general running of the economy & who will best raise your living standards questions haven’t been posted on the BBC site - I find that disgusting if they are only going to cherry pick the polls that are favourable to Labour but not the polls that are favourable to the Tories.
Watching the 1 o’clock BBC news this afternoon the newsreader spoke to a political reporter standing outside the House of commons who then delivered the news about the Daily Politics Com Res poll but my question is why does it take 20-30 seconds from an outside broadcaster to deliver the news about the Com Res poll when it could have been put onto the autocue for the newsreader to read out - so am I being paranoid in thinking that delivering the news outside House of commons sound better than what it really is for Labour given the un-weighted sample of the poll or that the reporter was already there for something else or even that this is another typical example of BBC wasting our license payer’s money.
“I take it you’re in the totalitarian camp and favor systematic silencing of dissent as long as it furthers the correct ideology.”
Clueless as ever!
133 I saw it and don’t agree.
Cameron has a better understanding of tactics than Nelson who is ‘all guns blazing’ all the time.
And Guido? Appealing to the mainstream is not his thing.
On Topic - No.
136, doesn’t that exemplify the “I’m all right, Jack” philosophy?
Speaking with my grandmother the other night Coldstone. Who remembers the 1930’s & bought her house from the bank, it having been repossed in the depression. She would beg to differ on your analysis of how good life was back then, leading as it did up to the mass slaughter of 50 million people at the end of that decade in WW2. The 30’s were a great time. now i know you’re a troll.
124. i think the bailout plan, which was hatched in a very short time and will have a major impact on the country’s finances for years to come, should have been subject to as much scrutiny as possible.
given that it wasn’t opposed in any way, now is a bad time for the “opposition” to start complaining about it, in my view.
122. Obama seemed to deliberately avoid getting into too many specifics on the bailout in the US, probably a good idea in his case, as favourite for the presidency. if he now started trying to attack McCain for supporting the bailout, you would think him petty and misguided, wouldn’t you?
136 I’ve lived through more than my fair share of recessions, I always survived,(until I accepted early retirement) as did just about everybody I knew.
You call this “living”?
You’re barely existing, you poor fool.
138 - I also noticed that the beeb had Cameron’s speech 4-5th on the running order, with actually very little in the sound bites Basically sounded like a lot of hot air Brown bashing. They then followed this by saying Brown remains in concilitary mood (cough cough, thing like PMQ 10 days ago and various suggestions of Thatcher causing this crash haven’t shown any cease in hostilities).
In comparison, Sky have been running with it as the primary story, and been no mention of this DP poll.
The difference is really becoming chalk and cheese.
139- It’s interesting that you have no real answer, just ad hominem attacks. It’s becoming more and more evident why you’re an adherent of the left.
On this thread alone, we’ve had people:
Claiming recessions are a good thing for a majority of the population
Equating Obama with Hugo Chavez and totalitarianism
Predicting Labour will remain in power until 2020
Question to top next thread, I propose –
“Is PB.com now officially nuttier than the BBC’s Have Your Say and The Guardian’s Comment is Free?”
137
You are confusing the UK with the USA. The UK did suffer, but only in certain areas. In fact for middle-class people living in the South it was a remarkably afluent time. Young women, (my mother was one of them) were available as domestic servants, only to keen leave their depressed areas for work.
Towns such as Coventry and Birmingham, and in the’ industrial estates’ that were built along the aterial roads out of London, boomed and expanded. Lord Nuffield did not become the country’s richest man by accident.
104.I disagree Ted, this was Labour’s Black October. The opposition parties offered the right level of support, and it was refused. There is only one main hostage to fortune in all this, and its the man that also claimed that he had ended boom and bust.
Cameron’s instincts have proved right so far imo. He should stick with them.
How come I’ll be voting Conservative at the next election then, Stripsey?
140 - I agree about Nelson (who always does very poorly on tv, compared to his interesting insights on the Speccy blog), and also about Cameron (regardless of political leanings).
However, I stand by my point regarding the importance of Osbourne, I really think that rather than having to show votes he isn’t completely useless (against the background of Darling who wasn’t doing very well either, obviously hinderer by Brown still controlling everything), he now becomes as import as Cameron to show the country that as a team they can do something to help people through the impending economic problems. The social issues and what they claimed was going to be slightly more responsible public spending far behind in the vast majority of people’s concerns.
137 The period 1930-33 was the Great Depression, in the UK, when output contracted sharply, and unemployment rose rapidly, but the period 1933-39 saw very rapid economic growth, although unemployment stayed high in some parts of the country. Most people saw their living standards rise sharply in the latter period.
Sometimes, the term the Great Depression is used to cover the whole period 1920-1940, in that unemployment was always fairly high, and in some parts of the country, very high indeed, even when the economy was growing rapidly.
Overall, we got off very lightly compared to the USA, France, Spain, and Germany, all of whom witnessed far more severe slumps, which in the case of the last two, destroyed their political system.
152- Only you can answer why you want socialism for America and conservatism for Britain. And you still haven’t explained why you detest McCarthy and yet embrace the destruction of those who use their constitutional right to question Obama, and on top of that somehow love the Tories.
145
I shan’t bore you with my personal details, but I’m quite happy with my life.
133.Not very subtle I am afraid Oracle.
154
I’d go with that!
100. I agree.
A reduction in interest rates may precipitate a deep recession, rather than prevent it. It’s the law of unintended consequences.
It’s agreed reducing interest rates will cause a fall in the pound. With sterling inflation running at 5-8% depending on which measure you accept, and returns on UK bonds falling below 4.5% (due to the cut in interest rates), holding the pound becomes an act of charity, rather than rationality! You actually lose money over time.
However the falling pound causes an automatic rise in inflation (as imports appreciate), and we so dependent on them as we manufacture so little, that demand for them in relatively inelastic.
This rise in inflation would further undermine the currency as real returns further erode and become even more negative.
Any one buying sterling denominated bonds would thus lose on two levels, falling nominal returns, and real currency depreciation.
The desire to buy UK bonds falls, while the UK need to sell them is increasing dramatically.
We have a recipe for a possible UK default on its debt. This is almost exactly what happened to Russia in 1998 when it experienced rising inflation, but its interest rates were kept too low, and the desire to buy its bonds suddenly fell. It couldn’t sell any new debt, so couldn’t raise revenue to fund its borrowing and deficit, and ended up defaulting on its existing debt. The economy went into deep recession. And it was all caused by short-sighted decision to keep interest rates too low.
This would occur here if fewer lend to the UK, the £50-150 billion the UK needs to finance its huge balance of trade deficit and borrowing, at the falling exchange rate. It a realistic possibility. The B of P figures are as important today as they were in the 1970’s.
157 - ?
Sky and ITV have a more realistic and unbiased view.
The BBC is really out there on its own at the moment, a lot of people are saying this - completely out of step with other news organisations.
146. It’s top story on the BBC website.
149. Yes that’s a fair assessment Coldstone. But surely the fact that parts of Britain prospered makes the deprivation of the north, the cities and much of Scotland and Wales during the 30s all the less excusable?
If rearmament and economic development had been concentrated in the special areas, the bottlenecks of the late 30s would have been less severe. And if the National Government hadn’t signed away eighty years of free trade at Ottawa, the recovery would have been that much stronger.
140 I’d actually argue that Cameron is more strategically astute - he is willing to concede short term tactical gains to achieve longer term advantage. The military analogy is that of “shaping the battlefield” - getting your enemy to behave in a way that in reality more suits your own overall battle plan.
I still think an election is a long time off and with the economy so volatile and unpredictable at the moment too much policy holds as many dangers electorally for the Tories as too little. I think Cameron is trying to develop a narrative (with some policy morsels thrown in to reassure the restless and counter arguements of them being policy light) whilst being careful not to commit to policies (which might seem sensible now) that may not necessarily be appropriate in years time.
It’s a difficult challenge for the Tories.
137 The Thirties were indeed for much of the UK population a pretty good period - look at the 30’s housing estates, bakelite radios, increase in car ownership, read the books (Enid Blyton in particular). They were terrible in the North East and Glasgow.
The Great Depression was far worse in the US. Europe and the British Empire. In the UK it finished in 1932 with recovery after that in all but regional pockets of unemployment. Austin Chamberlain was a pretty good Chancellor, he invested in doing up the infrastructure, rebuilding factories and other Keynesian measures. The Jarrow March stood out because the marchers passed through the prosperous South, representing the forgotten North East.
165. Austin Chamberlain wasn’t chancellor in the 30s, so I think it would be hard to credit him with any precocious Keynesianism.
164 Or the other way of looking at it was that Cameron said little because he had little to say.
Of course, the former is quite shrewd if you suffer from the latter.
McCain and Obama poke fun at themselves and each other at the Al Smith Dinner. Both very funny.
McCain :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAjAtYqczkk
Obama :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5SWQJWm6Tg
162 - As I stated yesterday on the debate on bbs bias, it isn’t uncommon for website and tv to have different slant on things. During the David Kelly saga the website was extremely hostile to the government. I did notice that as part of the cuts that the news team for tv and internet were being merged.
I also have noticed that often by the time 6pm and 10pm comes they are normally in sync. Be interesting to see if the website has relegated his speech by the end of play.
When President Obama starts sending law-abiding Americans to prison simply for exercising their constitutional right to silence when accusingly questioned by a kangaroo court regarding people they encountered as much as 20 years ago, then the right can get worried. In the meantime they can reflect on why some still hail McCarthy as a hero despite him doing precisely that.
166 Was still thinking about Austin cars as an example of 30’s southern prosperity! Neville I meant.
Oracle - could it be the Rupert Murdoch factor with his impending switch of the Sun back to supporting the Tories as they all but publicly did after DC’s conference speech - time will tell but it will be interesting to see that once the Sun make the announcement in what direction Sky news go. I have been said all along that the Sun would switch back their allegiance to the Tories - there was a report some months ago that Murdoch had approved the Sun switching back but that he still harboured private reservations about Cameron but the bottom line is that rich successful businessmen don’t like to be seen backing lost causes which is also another big reason as to why Labour’s big money donations will also dry up as they already have been doing in recent years since the last election.
140. guido is both clueless and supremely self-confident on economic matters - a bad combo
Either Cameron is a socialist or Obama’s a conservative (well, he’s being supported by quite a few).
Thr former is a point of view that a section of our Conservative party appear to ascribe to by the way. The difference with the US is that the fringe group they represent here is actually the group driving force behind the party there.
170- But not until then, huh? I guess you’ll choose to remain blind and indulgent of free speech suppression in the meantime. Good for you… you should be proud of yourself.
‘Council tax frozen, business rates relief extended’
http://www.publicservice.co.uk/news_story.asp?id=7398
I see similarities with 1979. The economic problems are different now but the situation is just as dire and the electorate just as confused about the remedy. Thatcher won in 1979, but it was no landslide. Labour still performed well in some areas, where their core vote looked to Labour for protection from economic hardship. Indeed, some argue that if Callaghan had gone to the country in October 1978 he would have won.
Callaghan made a big issue about being the only one able to deal with the unions (seems like a different age now but this was seen as important in 1978/9), not unlike Brown’s claims to economic competence. There are of course differences: Thatcher was less attractive as a personality than Cameron and the Libdems were far weaker.
I still reckon Cameron will win in 2010, and deserves to do so, but I’ve never subscribed to these who have expected a landslide.
172 - I actually think Sky has become noticeably anti-Labour over the past 12 months. For me I find this interesting coincided with the government (well competition commission) blocking him buying up ITV. It was reported at the time he hit the roof.
There was an interesting article in the New Statesman a week or so ago, regarding the weird world of media influences (i.e Torygraph editor being a big Brown fan). It stated that in their opinion Murdoch as you stated isn’t convinced by Cameron, but Osbourne is a good friend of Murdoch Jnr. Also interesting was that during the Labour conference there was a serious meeting between Murdoch Jnr and Brown in his hotel room.
Why US politics is better than UK politics and why Cameron’s Speech is not the most viewed on the BBC website despite being the editorial lead.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7675927.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7675935.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7675993.stm
Good stuff.
164 the economy isnt volatile and unpredictable. it is very predictable now, that we are going into recession - no doubt about it.
162 - Looks like Cameron speech is already slipping on bbc website. Come 10pm I reckon it could be, as with the tv news, relegated to 3-4-5 running.
167 - You make a valid point but until we get to the election properly and get to see the manifestos then you can’t really prove or disprove that opinion/perception.
178 - So that could be informing Brown of an imminent switch back to The Tories or giving Brown his last orders to buck up his ideas or even seeing how DC’s conference speech panned out which was of course after the meeting in Brown’s hotel room - watch this space is the expression as they say!
Anyone know if the Christmas special of the Thick of It is on DVD yet?
QT audience last night in Stoke on Trent (not exactly natural Tory territory) seemed to understand the difference between doing what was necessary in a crisis and responsibility for causing the problems in the first place. They did not respond positively to Hoon’s boasting and bluster although they did respond to Claire Short’s comments on the need to reverse the destruction of the UK manufacturing base.
While the Beeb it not known for getting a balanced audience there was little evidence of any warmth or support for Brown’s actions over the last few weeks in the articulate comments that they made.
It suggests that any Brown bounce will be limited in size and of short duration.
177
The main reason Thatcher won in ‘79 was the unions, not the economy as such, although they were related. The ‘Social Contract’ had broken down, the reason why Labour was elected in the first place in ‘74. The general feeling in the country was, ‘Something had to be done about the unions’ Thatcher promised to do it, that was her, ‘trump card’
181, shocking the BBC isn’t keeping Cameron top of the headlines. They’ll be harassing him during interviews next.
The speech, from what I’ve seen, seems to be a good first step in a prolonged attack on Brown. It highlights past errors and paints a general picture of the Conservative approach to the economy.
However, as rightly pointed out here, it does lack immediate answers to the pressing questions, questions which may well remain in 2010. Cameron/Osborne do need answers to these.
I’d also like to propound a possibility as to why the speech didn’t contain everything it might’ve. Perhaps the Tories, having been starved, understandably, of media coverage lately are simply drawing out their economic announcements. A speech today, one a few days later etc etc.
187 Good Post MD. It’s good to see that your not an uncritical supporter.
If risk rises, interest rates should rise. Cutting interest rates creates risk of default and economic recession, as the reward of hold the asset is now negative. This is true of a country just as much as it is true of a bank.
This bailout works only in keeping idle bankers highly paid, it fails in keeping the economy afloat.
And cutting interest rates will cause a flight of capital.
None of the decisions taken have been properly thought out.
177. The electoral system was neutral in 1979. That’s why Thatcher won. It isn’t now, and that’s why Cameron won’t win (a majority)…
180 I take your point
185 - Good, which was what people were saying once the dust settled - rather like the dying days of the last Tory government in that anything that was said was dismissed in an instance as people were simply not interested as they had already made up their voting minds.
On the topic of why support for Obama outside the U.S. is so widespread, it seems the reasons are fairly obvious: hatred of George W. Bush and therefore the Republicans, first and foremost, and a related belief that Democrat Obama will take a much less muscular (i.e., weaker) approach to the exertion of American influence around the globe.
Regardless of who wins the election, it’s inevitable that American global influence will wane because of America’s growing economic weakness as well as the growing influence of other power centers, such as China, Russia, and the oil-rich states of the Middle East. Obama’s natural domestic policy inclination and reflexive opposition to Bush’s approach to international affairs will accelerate the trend.
So will the world get what they want from Obama? I’m sure of it. America’s influence in the world at large will continue to fade as both domestic and foreign opposition to America’s role in the world drives the already so-inclined Obama to focus on domestic issues, Iraq pullout, and increasing reliance on whatever can be managed through the UN. Russia and China principally, but also other economic and military power centers, will gradually fill the void and the Europeans, in particular, will have to decide where they fit in the new world order. This will inevitably involve increasing European accommodations with Russia and China as well as the oil rich states, all of which will be well-positioned to exert ever-increasing leverage over Europe and the U.S.
188
Tis me I don’t support I do critical, I have preferences, and it certainly isn’t for the Conservatives.
‘See things as they are, not as you would like them to be’
185, QT was a little dull (Grieve not as good as I thought he might be, Miss Goldsworthy looked delightful though). Most interesting moment was Hoon’s pronouncement that not backing a Stasi database means you want terrorists to kill everyone, and the audience reaction to that.
187.”I’d also like to propound a possibility as to why the speech didn’t contain everything it might’ve. Perhaps the Tories, having been starved, understandably, of media coverage lately are simply drawing out their economic announcements. A speech today, one a few days later etc etc.”
I think that we still don’t know just how bad this is all going to get, or even just how the public finances are going to be by the time of the next GE. I honestly believe that Cameron and Osborne are prepared to take a hit in the polls and the usual bashing on some sites rather than make themselves hostages to fortune. When you are in government you can implement your policies, you can also back track and do the opposite before an election, including nicking and claiming credit for other parties policies.
But as an opposition you tend to be fenced in if you nail your policies down to early.
This is completely off topic but has anyone got a link to the exceptionally camp Gordon Brown pic.
The most visionary bet was from a punter who gambled £39 in 2005 when Mr Obama was listed at 50-1 and has now won £1,985.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/Home/World-News/Paddy-Power-Bookmakers-Are-Paying-Out-Bets-On-Barack-Obama-Winning-The-US-Presidential-Election/Article/200810315122990?lpos=World_News_Carousel_Region_3&lid=ARTICLE_15122990_Paddy_Power_Bookmakers_Are_Paying_Out_Bets_On_Barack_Obama_Winning_The_US_Presidential_Election
185 - As somebody who although doesn’t live in Stoke, has close links to the city for a long time. I feeling I get from people I speak to, is of a feeling of being let down over the past 10 years by what they naturally see as their government. Local economy hasn’t really improved, wages are still low, jobs poor quality, poor hospital and a lot of anti-immigrant sentiment. Of course they still are no Tory fan and the beard/sandal issue of the Lib Dems is equally unpopular.
I think Stoke is a place where a real scary shock could take place on election night. The likes of the BNP have found local people who aren’t violent skinhead nutters, rather local people who talk about looking out for local people problems (which none of the major parties really can say anymore). They have been very successful in the local elections and with the downturn in the economy likely to really hit hard in the area I can see people voting for much more extreme parties this time around.
196, there’s also the non-dom factor. Labour stated, in the Commons, that no figures were kept on non-doms. But when the Tories announced a policy to raise cash from the non-doms Labour suddenly conjured the figures up. They may well be wary about a repeat performance.
95. battleground has closed up a bit as well so i am happy enough with my timing !
184 Only the Series 1 Christmas Special £7.98 from Amazon.
198. Was that Mike?
Interesting post on Bloggerheads about Total Politics not being answerable to the Press Complaints Commission.
http://www.bloggerheads.com/archives/2008/10/total_politics_magazine.asp
The Daily Mash on the ‘Markets’
http://tinyurl.com/5k64a8
Bush hasn’t had a ‘muscular’ foreign policy just a stupid one. What we want is intelligent foreign policy, not a weak one.
Still, intelligence is weakness as far as some are concerned, it’s easy for them to get confused over it.
Colin Powell is going to endorse Obama on Sunday.
200.Exactly Morris Dancer! We have the government coming up with a financial rescue package for the present crisis, but what about a grand plan for seeing this country through a recession?
Lots of lofty commands to Banks, Energy companies and the petrol forecourts about passing on cuts to the hard pressed *taxpayer*. But what about the government doing the same?
Local councils hit, sorry you are on your own mate.
Petrol prices, what about a fuel duty cut etc, etc.
Where is the governments big plan, some political journalist was demanding a contrast from the Tories on what we should do, a contrast to WHAT. Finding a job lagging lofts?
207. Nice job lined up ?
207 - Not confirmed, although the fact that he’s on ‘Meet the Press’ that day is leading people to believe that is the case.
196. Another possibility as to why Cameron isn’t flooding the airwaves with half-baked plans may be because he believes we’re going to get hit hard by recession no matter what.
So far we’ve had the combined genius of the Fed, the Eu, the Treasury and Vince Cable trying to sort this out and nobody sees a plan offering salvation that they can believe in.
In such circumstances there’s little to be gained and much to be lost by shooting your mouth off and being shown to be as wrong as everyone else.
202.I got that one PfP, but I only discovered the joys of the Thick of It when I saw the final episode which IMHO was brilliant. Particularly the bit about the Labour Minister going into a blinking frenzy on Newsnight, would love to get a copy of it.
210. Well if Powell confirmed it then his endorsement would be today!
211, good point, plus the government, rightly or wrongly, will cop the flak for a recession. No more boom and bust will become Brown’s epitaph, I think.
They should ditch the £32bn on the two databases (ID and Stasi-style communications monitoring) pronto. Not only unpopular, unnecessary and intrusive, they also cost a bomb when we have no cash to spare. Cameron should raise these briefly at PMQs, I think. Easy contrast, simple message, government looks rubbish.
[193] - You are mistaken. Support for Obama, in Europe at least, is not on the basis that “Obama will take a much less muscular (i.e., weaker) approach to the exertion of American influence around the globe.”
Put simply the centre of gravity of politics in Europe is to the left of the US, as can be seen by generally different attitudes towards healthcare and Unions.
The Democrats are generally to the left of the Republicans, although there is a degree of blurring at the interface that is surprising compared to European politics.
That’s why Europe would prefer to see Obama elected.
211. Yes those calling for frenzied policy announcements should look at Vince Cable - a few months ago he was the sage of Westminster.
Several flip-flops later the shine has come off his brain.
211.Check out my post@208, Cameron and Osborne are not going to hand Brown their policies on a platter with plenty of garnish without hearing what the government have ordered off the menu. And for what, a little bit of air time during Black October.
‘Government is going deeper into debt’
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article21038.htm
Just on topic. I suspect there will be a limited labour recovery, but it will be based on Labour supporters returning to fold/increasing intention to vote.
My view is that if you are generally supportive of labour but felt the Government we’rent up to much, you’re more likely to be supportive now- especially now bankers and businesses are under threat,
However, I don’t think the Tory vote will fall much. i can’t see Tory voters being less inclined to support the Tories as a result, as the vehemence on this board shows. So the %age tory vote will stay about the same.
One caution for the Tories here. As far as I remember the pollng figures suggest that Cameron has the support of virtually everyone who identifies Tory - he’s not got much more upside. Labour recovery can come, in part, from people who support the party generally but who were disillusioned/couldn’t be bothered this time.
Of course, now I’ve said this there’ll be a twenty point tory lead!
206- The Europeans made their foreign policy preferences quite clear during the shameful Yugoslavia breakup and ensuing ethnic cleansing, right in Europe’s own back yard, when little was done beyond twiddling of thumbs. The growing weakness of the West has been perceived by the Russians, among others, helping to encourage their adventure and announced annexations in Georgia. That is a beginning, not an ending. Obama and Europe will have no answers to these events sufficient to stop countries like Russia and China, who know that their opportunity has arrived. None of Obama’s much vaunted brilliance will stop them. I would look for the Chinese to start getting more aggressive over Taiwan, too, in the not too distant future.
211. he isn’t auditioning to be one of the crowd
in the job he is applying for, he will be called upon repeatedly to choose quickly and decisively between unappealing options, and articulate why.
we are now getting to see how he might respond under a little bit of pressure to do that.
Could this post on the political wire blog lead to the next pb.com longterm winner?
Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) “will keynote a high-profile Christian conservative fundraising dinner next month in Iowa,” according to Jonathan Martin.
“It will be Jindal’s first visit to Iowa… The trip is a reminder that, even with a presidential election looming, caucus politics is never far away in the Hawkeye State.”
Jindal for the GOP nominee in 2012, I think that might be a good bet.
220. Hopefully the recession will f*ck Russia and China up as well so they don’t get too many ideas.
217. Putting forward a plan now would be creating hostages to fortune. It’s quite likely that the government has been massaging figures regarding debt, money in the kitty, credit-worthiness, etc. and by tying themselves to a plan based on false premises Cameron & Osbourne could come a right cropper. Better to keep quiet IMO.
That Justine Greening made some very pertinant points on Labour’s mismanagement of the Economy. My opinion of her continues to rise, good communicator, knows her stuff, the right balance between asserting point of view and listening.
In contrast Caroline Flint repeats the interviewers name repeatedly!
215- So are you saying that if Obama had Bush’s views on international policy while McCain had Obama’s views, the Europeans would still be supporting Obama? I don’t buy it. When people in other countries think about whom they’d prefer to lead a major foreign country, they think primarily about their own perceived interests, not the interests of the citizens of that foreign country. Europeans overwhelmingly support Obama not because they’d like to see Americans living in joyous socialism but rather because they think Obama will act in a way on the international scene that will be more in line with European interests (e.g., lessening the extent of America’s much-resented power in the world).
212. Christine, I’m sure you will find a torrent for it somewhere. There are a couple of sites dedicated to past UK television programs.
221. He did react quickly, indeed he led the cross-party co-operation when some people like you on here said Labour did not need it IIRC.
Indeed Cameron is leading again by scrutinising government decision making. The government has all the levers of state and information to take decisions from an opposition party does not. If Labour want to see the Tories making tough decisions just call an election and Brown can snipe from the backbenches!
222- It’s as good a bet as any at this point, but it’s definitely too soon to say. If I were going to wager a few bucks on very long-term possibilities, this would be a great one.
225 - Caroline Flint normally spends most of her time interrupting the interviewer - god she is so annoying - I hope loses her seat.
226. Yes, I think you are correct! The Europeans want peace at this time and that’s why they don’t want a percieved warmonger electing to the Whitehouse. It is a difficult balance to get though as sometimes early action is better than deferred or no action!
223 Actually Russia is very much a one-trick pony, in economic terms and depends on selling commodities to the West. If commodity prices decline then Russia feels the pinch. And given its immense demographic problems, I don’t see Russia as being much of a rival to the US in the long term.
China will be, but even China is dependent on exports to the West, and will suffer in turn as the West goes into recession.
223- Both of those countries are much more accustomed to enduring real hardship than are Europeans or Americans and I expect will be much less humbled by any economic downturn that will be the case in the West.
Previous thread 296: I back McCain both for political and financial reasons. Perhaps it is desperate to think he still has a chance, but I do. I backed him for the nomination when he was at 40/1.
22 PfP. Yes, I think there’s value in those Ladbrokes EV Obama under 349.
226 I think there’s truth in both points of view. Most Europeans are to the left of most Americans, and so would rather see a left winger in charge of the US.
Likewise, George Bush’s administration has done much to discredit American conservatism, both inside and outside the US.
But yes, I do think there is widespread resentment of the US, almost regardless of who’s President, simply because the top dog is always resented.
232. That was my view as well. Plus, a lot of the bods in China have just started to get used to their living standards going up for the first time in 8000 years so they’re going to get a bit “restive” imo. Methinks the Chinese govt are likely to have their hands full.
No More Boom and Bust will indeed become Brown’s epitaph.
229. Obama v Jindal in 2012 would be interesting. What chances Bloomberg runs, in your opinion, S&S?
232- But if you’re a pony with one trick, commodities is a great one. Russia will continue to leverage their oil and gas to great effect, particularly as Europe increases its dependency on Russian exports. Now that Russian confidence has been bolstered through their Georgian adventure and the ensuing non-reaction from Europe, they will no doubt soon be seeking to settle scores in the Crimea.
223. Mr Jones that might not be so great.
China is bankrolling Britain through buying our treasury bonds and shares, effectively funding our trade deficit and government borrowing. If they stop buying we’ll experience total economic collapse or humiliating hand-outs from the IMF.
It would completely ruin our reputation as a place to invest. The mountain of debt created by Brown has funded our high-living over the last 10 years. It could never last. The party is coming to an end.
All those people in the London suburbs who remortgaged their houses upto 100% value, and then spend the £400,000 on consumption - TV’s, holidays, nice cloths, gadgets, or dodgy buy-to-lets in Manchester, Leeds and Spain from InsideTrack have nothing to show for it. The money is all spent or lost.
And the borrowed money will never be repaid to the banks - a surprising large proportion of London’s residents are in this situation. And if it’s this bad in London imagine what it’s like in the rest of the country. The banks know it, and so do the traders.
The bailout plan is just a sticking plaster to hide the gaping wound for a few more months. It will still cripple the patient.
This isn’t Sweden where the patient caught a cold, here it’s more like cancer.
237 - He only said it about 200 times during the course of his 11 budgets but now he has said he meant no more Tory boom & bust - god he really is desperate to think people will believe that crap!
241, that’s the most peculiar thing about it. Nobody will forgot what he actually said, whether or not the Treasury ‘loses’ all the online evidence and Guido’s article mysteriously disappears.
And even if he did say it (which he didn’t) people who’ve lost their jobs and had their houses repossessed won’t sigh and say, “Well, at least it’s a Labour bust rather than a Tory one.”
234 - I’m imagining a final figure of about 310 to 320 EVs for Obama at the moment. That’s a projection forwards from today but doesn’t take into account anything unforeseen (obvious but needs to be said!)
The Republicans problem is that their party is fractured on different lines, just look at the Conservative media and its turning on itself. Who will emerge will need to stitch this together? From that religious right area Huckabee has much more about him than Jindal I feel. Their best chance is to revert to fiscal conservatism though but who is there?
239 I don’t think having your economy based on commodities is that great, because other forms of economic development are usually retarded, and you’re so vulnerable to falling prices, and other countries developing alternative supplies.
Can anyone name a labour MP they would like to go to the pub for a pint with? This is my new MP acceptability test.
238 – Let me correct myself - he is delusional which we all know anyway!
Cat is starting to get out of the bag regarding the “Boom & Bust”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NDTLUkNVFkY
Oh and….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aCQREoAmsu0&NR=1
Sorry - 237
245 Nick Palmer MP
247 & 248 - anything on not letting property prices get out of hand
244. it seems to work for the UAE for example
242 - The events over the next 18+ months are pretty much set in stone, the country is in recession, we will see unemployment figures rise as well as home repossessions, bankruptcies and a decline in living standards for the many.
Brown stated “no more boom or bust” period, no amount of Government rhetoric or spin will alter the perception of the man in the street that things are bad and he is out of pocket. A constant drip, drip of bad news will set the media narrative…. not the best scenario for Gordon in the lead up to a G.E.
238- As you might know, Bloomberg just managed a back room deal with New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, in which he will be allowed to run for a third term as mayor in return for allowing council members (including Quinn) to also run for third terms. This requires the current law to be changed, which currently has a two-term limit, which was adopted by voter referendum twice during the 1990’s. This power grab by Bloomberg in an unholy alliance with Quinn has been denounced by political leaders of all stripes here in New York.
All of that is to say that I think Bloomberg has been highly overrated and that while he is indeed an adept political chameleon with sky-high ambitions, he is simply too tainted to run a credible national campaign for President and I think he’d decide against any such bid at the end of the day. Maybe a bid for New York governor, but not President.
250 - Agreed. Also Austin Mitchell and Bob Marshall Andrews
I think the 2nd clip is the sort of thing we are going to get sick of. The election in 2010 will be the first when youtube, facebook etc is used by vast numbers of people in the UK. This kind of attack is a difficult one to combat, as the US candidates only know too well.
245 Caroline Flint…..oh and Nick Palmer
Salmond seems to be on the front foot again on Sky News - A very strong performance indeed IMO. Salmond has cited that Brown became self-indulgent and partisan by trying to attack him under the cloth of National unity.
Gordon Brown seems to share the rashness of Neil Kinnocks 2007 “grind the b*stards into dust!” comment in letting the mask slip over the last couple of days. Voters are not stupid and I think that they will blame the architecht of failure (Labour) for building a house on shallow foundations that is collapsing round our ears.
Brown =
217. Cameron and Osborne are not going to hand Brown their policies on a platter with plenty of garnish without hearing what the government have ordered off the menu. And for what, a little bit of air time during Black October.
Black October. Nice ring to it!
Someone was posting earlier that Cameron needs a memorable name for this crisis, in order to hang it round Browns neck
250 Yes I think Mr Palmer would be an interesting drinking partner. Any that do not frequent this website?
Just did the daily update of state estimators - most value is vanishing.
Virginia remains though, with Obama miles ahead you can get 1.28. Centrebet yesterday had 1.3 when I posted, today it’s 1.13
Similarly, New Hampshire with Obama 10% ahead is 1.22. Slightly less safe, Florida and Colorado at 1.36 and 1.22 respectively. Beyond that, the odds look about right.
Maybe better value in the extremes - landslide territory - with Arkansas at 6/1 and Louisiana at 10/1. There’s been a fair bit of buying on Arkansas recently, with intrade bidding up to 25%, and 538 around a similar %. As far as I know this isn’t based on polling there, but speculative based on demographics (extrapolated from polling in Missouri & maybe some others). Anyone got anything more concrete? Last Rasmussen was 3 months ago (McCain +13).
Also some possible value in the overrating of Obama - eg he seems to have hit the ceiling in Georgia and Indiana, so McCain bets there maybe worth keeping an eye on.
257, hoping for a little extra curricular activity?
Can anyone name a labour MP they would like to go to the pub for a pint with? This is my new MP acceptability test.
I would go to the pub with all of them if they were buying the pints!
242 didnt get to the bottom of this. Did the Treasury really remove all references to “no more boom and bust” from its website and did Guido’s blog post actually get removed?
257. If I was sitting in a pub next to Caroline Flint with a pint in my hand, I imagine I’d have better things to do with it than drink it.
Yes yes yes. Was a big fan of Justine Greening in 2005, have gone off her given her official pictures make her look like zippy. Would possibly vote labour if Flint was in charge….in leather
244- In the very long term, I agree with you, but over the next decade or so, I believe Russian dominance in oil and gas production will continue to strengthen their current resurgence and, barring gross mismanagement, put them in a much stronger position vis a vis the rest of the world, including most immediately their European neighbors. With a strong man like Putin in charge, I wouldn’t write off the ambitions or abilities of the Russians to aggressively widen their influence for years to come.
264, no idea. Guido’s article simply ceased to be (going to his homepage it was no longer there and the direct link to the article was a dead end). It’s a little bit convenient, to be honest.
264 - I think the Treasury changed the links to past stuff, but somebody quickly found it. Yes Guido removed his post (no idea why), but some people already have the full list and are constantly posting it.
Also all the times he said it in the house can’t be erased, and I would think that the requests to bbc and sky for tapes of his previous speeches have gone through the roof (if people don’t already store them up, which would have been sensible for any political party).
“I wouldn’t write off the ambitions or abilities of the Russians to aggressively widen their influence for years to come.”
Where’s Tailgunner Joe when you need him?!
253. “set in stone” - seeing as all of the events you mention have odds attached, that sounds like very good news for gamblers!
256. agreed, i am not looking forward to the UK importing even more gutter politics from the US
267. I think they want to throw their weight around and if everyone wasn’t going to be too broke to buy their oil and gas I think they’d be naughty. But hopefully the recession in Europe will mean they’ll be too broke as well. Fingers crossed.
267. ‘barring gross mismanagement’
err…like FX reserves down $70bn in two month?
I think the lib dems win the Pub acceptability test - perhaps that could be their central marketing at next election. They can have that for free.
America needs to jail George Clooney, Sean Penn and Susan Sarandon — that’ll have Putin shaking in his fur-lined boots, just like imprisoning the Hollywood Ten must’ve had Stalin fuming, “Curses, foiled again!”
guido has a piece on ‘Blog Regulation’
BAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAHAHHAHAAH:
http://www.labour.org.uk/top_50_achievements
274, probably right. But if Boris were an MP he might swing it for the Tories.
245 - Kate Hoey
274. “every voter can have a pint with Charles Kennedy”
“While the arc of Wurzelbacher’s breakneck trip through the news cycle – from private citizen to insta-celebrity to political target – offers a curious insight into the political media culture, it also appears to offer a glimpse into the McCain campaign’s on-the-fly decisionmaking style.
A McCain source said Thursday that the campaign read about Wurzelbacher on the Drudge Report, while another campaign aide confirmed that he was not vetted. ”
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14652.html
If you can’t organise a campaign, how on earth can you run a country?
did guido explain what happened to his article though?
276, saw that earlier. The establishment can bugger off if it thinks it can curtail freedom of speech on the internet.
272- The Ukraine is in an exceptionally weak position right now, though, so the Russians may act in that arena sooner than many think likely.
274. But the Liberals used to be opposed to drink altogether…
280…isn’t it rather ‘Charles Kennedy would like to have a drink with every voter’?
270- Of course, some would be less bothered by that than others…
Pint of ‘Old Trip’ with Ken Clarke?
245-Kate Hoey.
273- Somehow, in the current environment, that doesn’t really sound so bad!
Update - I’ve updated the main article with the 4.30pm spread betting prices. Unfortunately Sporting Index’s market is currently suspended. It will be interesting to see what changes there are during the weekend.
My current position is that I am Tory seller and a Labour buyer
168: Thanks for the links, Jack W. Although I didn’t think the jokes scintillated quite to Blair/Hague standard, they’re both agreeable speeches, and McCain’s tribute to Obama (8′15″ in) is downright touching. Perhaps I’m naive, but I think he means it. I don’t want him to be president, but I like him.
Anyone who would like to have a drink with me, come to the next pb.com event. But the Labour MP you might really want as a drinking partner is Stephen Pound - he has easily the fastest repartee on the block.
217: Christina, you mean Cameron DOES have a plan, but he just doesn’t want to say what it is for fear it’ll be nicked? It’s an almost original campaign line, but Shakespeare got there first in King Lear:
“I will do such things — what they are yet I know not, but they shall be the terrors of the earth.”
BTW, we had Gordon in Nottingham today, speaking privately to a packed crowd of activists - I think it was a spin-off from a public event at Science City.
284. Yeah that’s why fingers crossed
290. ‘we had Gordon in Nottingham today, speaking privately to a packed crowd of activists’
hahaha
ahh.. the sound of one hand clapping.
290. You didn’t say what type of activists though!
It could have been packed with socialist workers, Anti-Nazi League, LD’s Tories, BNP, Trade unionists or some other group of people!
R2000
Florida
Obama 49, McCain 45
Georgia
McCain 49, Obama 43
Pretty much in line with other recent polls.
O/T Con home on last nights B/E results
“Poor result in Watford a backlash due to our unfortunate choice of a total psycho as our Parliamentary candidate?”
290, as decisively opposed to the decisive action decisively decided by the decisive leader who never dithers? (Because he’s decisive).
Brown’s action against the recession (not the financial crisis):
1. calling for petrol prices to fall, but without reducing either fuel duty or VAT
2. 164,000 job losses can be offset by having an army of loft laggers
3. um….
Brown’s done bugger all, and has access to both the levers of power and the actual in-depth information.
290 - What misfortune will befall Nottingham over the weekend? A plague of frogs? Fire? Flood? Meteorites? Be afraid.
we had Gordon in Nottingham today, speaking privately to a packed crowd of activists -
So people do have a use for telephone box’s other than urinating in!
290.NickP, will the next PBR bear any resemblance to the briefing and announcements trailed when Brown’s last relaunch crashed and burned before take off?
And can you tell me what Brown’s plan for steering us through this recession is yet, or is it still in the planning stages dependent on the next set of political polls?
On the issue of BBC polling - it is perfectly possible for them to ask just one question. Given it’s the daily politics it’s probably just a couple of questions atatched to a weekly omnibus poll - cost a few hundred quid and value for licence payers money. It might also explain the lack of weighting.
301, how is it value if the results are invalidated by improper polling methods?
That’s like saying buying rotting chicken for 5p represents value just because it’s cheap.
Comedian Al Franken angrily confronted Sen. Norm Coleman after last night’s Senate debate in Minnesota. Here’s the video, in which you’ll also see Franken’s wife intervene to try to prevent her husband from doing anything even more ridiculous:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3rwTj1PdWM
And here’s a Coleman ad featuring just a few of Franken’s explosive vignettes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJUxtfSdaX0&NR=1
If Franken wins in light of all this, his serial tax problems, and his lack of a credible background, then one wonders how any Democrat could lose any race anywhere in the U.S.
Two things. Is Adrian Harper a regular Labour cheerleader on this site? I’m only asking as such information helps newcomers who want to avoid reading drivel.
Secondly, I must have missed this latest poll shock. My own experience of talking to people is that there is absolutely zero Brown Bounce and that no minds have been changed about the man since before the crisis. He’s like Superman, but only because he tucks his shirt-tails inside his Y-fronts. But if a 40%-35% Tory-Labour vote split in 2010 would give us a Labour government, then how is this nation any different from Zimbabwe?
259 Someone was posting earlier that Cameron needs a memorable name for this crisis, in order to hang it round Browns neck
A quickie online poll over on housepricecrash
Friday Poll, This crisis needs a name has Black October leading the field
268 Link to When Gordon has used the Words Boom and Bust in parliament either written or spoken is here.
Most interesting quote is here when he says it applies to both parties.
For 40 years, our economy has had an unenviable history under Governments of both parties of boom and bust. Stop-go has meant higher interest rates, less investment, fewer successful companies, and lost jobs. It has been the inevitable result of a failure to take a long-term view
290- But this is the timeless stuff of challengers to an incumbent regime, Nick. For example, Obama is going to “change” America, give us all health care, and end the war in Iraq. As for a plan showing us how it will be done, well, even to ask the question is an intolerable offense to The One!
The pendulum of politics and populism always swings too far. The GOP benefitted from this after 9/11, why shouldn’t the Democrats now?
300 Let’s be fair - it’s not like he is claiming they filled trent bridge. I am sure most parties have excellent meetings when packed full of activists. It’s preaching to the converted.
304.I started calling it Black October on here last week when the government were trying to spin it as Brown’s Falklands moment. I see now that its been promoted to WW2 with Brown now modelling self on Churchill rather than Thatcher!
Listening to him talking about the courage of other PM’s while trying to stand in their limelight always makes me feel a wee bit queasy.
I see the BBC news is now not enough showing Cameron footage. Caught the headlines and it was rugby player assisted suicide, MOD failure in solider death, Brown says getting on with job, whatever it takes etc in response to Cameron criticism at meeting in Nottingham. No mention of what that criticism might be. BBC news really have given up trying to even give the appearance of impartiality.
312. it’s a damn catchy title Christina
I’m not sure I agree with the “Europeans like Obama because he makes the USA weak” explanation. First of all, I very much doubt that the Republican policies of the last eight years has either made America stronger (I’d argue it’s quite the opposite) or served American interest. In the real world, yelling “America first, America first” every five minutes does not automatically put America first. It’s often much better to appear generous when, in fact, you get what you want. I think the better US presidents understood that very well.
Either way, I don’t think global politics is really the deciding factor. Germans absolutely love Clinton, for example. He came to Berlin during the height of anti-Iraq protests and had pretty much an Obama-style rally. I think it would be a stretch to say that Clinton did not pursue American interest or was a hardcore pacifist (Kosovo?). To add a more telling example, as far as I know about half of the German population loved Reagan. The other half hated him, but that was probably very similar in the US.
What Bush did was continuously telling Europe to its face that we are weak, useless, and unimportant. I remember very well how, just when Germans were dying to show their support for the US after 9/11, Bush coldly rejected German offers to support the war in Afghanistan, basically saying “we were attacked, we don’t need help defending ourselves”. Of course the reaction was “well, in that case go **** yourself”. The way Bush made it so obvious he wanted to go alone in Iraq (plus some cannon fodder if readily available) of course only furthered this reaction. He doesn’t like Europeans, he shows it openly. What kind of reaction can one expect?
A great deal of Obama’s popularity (again, from a German perspective) is probably the result of the fact that he appeals to everything we LIKE in Americans. Germans tend to believe that Americans are not necessarily the most prudent thinkers, but incredibly friendly, rousingly optimistic, and open-minded. Bush played right into the negative aspects of the stereotype and reversed the positive one. Dumb, arrogant, fear-monger, intolerant. By contrast, Obama is not only associated with “nice”, and “hope”, but is also widely seen as an intellectual. Plus he’s black, which sweeps the “open minded” category.
Initially, I don’t think Europeans disliked McCain much. He had a fairly positive image in Germany, at least. Unfortunately (for him) he is in Bush’s party and runs against our new favorite American. What made it worse is that he accused Obama of liking Europeans too much, being naive and inexperienced. He basically accused him of everything we see positively in JFK. Didn’t go down all that well.
If Obama is elected, I’m sure you will see a marked improvement in America’s image in Europe (and the world), even if he simply continued the foreign policy of the second Bush presidency. McCain would have to actually work a bit to make things better, but a few respectful signs and no new war would help quite a bit. American president’s don’t have to sell out the US to make Europeans happy. At least pretending they don’t despise everything Europe stands for may just do the job.
FTSE up 4.4%
(If I say it, Gabble won’t have to…
)
313 - What I don’t understand is why the BBC are being impartial. It has tto be institutional, as before 1997 election you could Labour would be in pwer for a while, and there would be lots of benefit with regards to access, and to possible job opportunities?
Why back the loser now? It’s like the want to self destruct.
Here’s another incident illustrating the “Joe the Plumber” phenomenon in which public expression of opposition to Obama can be a dangerous thing. This 12-year old girl has now been demonized as a racist for daring to wear a McCain/Palin shirt:
http://www.myfoxorlando.com/myfox/pages/News/Politics/Detail;jsessionid=621F239D69194AC99E4514668F29DD8F?contentId=7664724&version=11&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=TSTY&pageId=3.14.1&sflg=1
313: Radio 5 live main news it was about 5th story. They mentioned Cameron but actually only played a clip of some SNP bloke!
(Although to be fair the SNP guy was absolutely spot on the money)
Anyone who believes the new spin about how Brown never actually said “no return to boom and bust” might want to watch this
http://thecrownblogspot.blogspot.com/2008/10/gordon-browns-house-price-boom-and-bust.html
187 Coldstone, with hindsight 1979 was a turning point in the fortunes of the unions. But my recollection at the time was that the key Tory promises were to cut income tax, encourage home ownership and control inflation. There was a widespread feeling that the economy was not working and the UK was in terminal decline.
The issue of the unions worked against Thatcher as well as for her. Many people saw the unions as a fixture on the landscape and the government needed to get along with them, rather than indulge in confrontation. For those who wanted compromise rather than conflict Callaghan was a much more emollient figure. Callaghan pointed back to Heath and the three day week as a result of previous Tory attempts to deal with the unions. I don’t think her policy towards the unions won the election for Thatcher.
191 Rodcrosby, your point about the bias in the electoral arithmetic now compared with 1979 is well made.
312 Is Gordon Brown the C**t for Black October? Couldnt resist.
316 - The FTSE appears to be perfectly inversely proportional to Browns popularity. It was fine when Brown was unpopular (steady over the last year), crashed when Brown had his conference bounce, now is picking up as Browns popularity starts to wane / Cameron goes on the attack.
Jonah strikes again.
317, because they’re a set of lefties more concerned with advancing their own agenda than doing their bloody jobs.
I see that sky have dropped Cameron speech right down the running order. Apparently the no. 1 story in the country is an assisted suicide, which to me is one of those stories that only normally get attention on a slow news day or after a court ruling. It is an important moral issue, but normally the sort of thing they either so a big special on several cases.
To me the failing of the MOD and what the opposition have to say about the financial issues, given the bank crisis, rising unemployment, high inflation etc is are the two big stories of the ones being followed.
323 I suppose, it’s a bit like the comrades on here, they really really really really believe the Labour Party is what this country needs. Don’t see it myself, but it does seem to be about 25% of voters.
303: You can subscribe to ComRes’s Pollwatch with gives all the public details about their polls. They say they’ve polling on the economy and “The public polls were commissioned by the Daily politics” - not clear if there were also questions privately commissioned by someone else. They say the question was “which team do you most trust to lead Britain through the current downturn” (there’s no mention of ‘putting aside your preference”) and give three results:
Sept 24/25: Brown/Darling 36, Cameron/Osbourne 30, Clegg/Cable 5, don’t know 29
Oct 1-2: 39/34/5/21
Oct 15-16: 41/30/6/22
Since the results are comparable, they’re not as totally meaningless as Mike suggests, but they should be considered only as a trend rather than a reliable percentage guide to how voters think. It seems to me a moderately favourable trend but by no means an earthquake, and that’s one reason I’m not predicting some huge swing to Labour in the next poll.
306: No, Adrian Harper is a well-established spoof poster (by implication anti-Labour). He’s quite smooth at it and takes people in sometimes, though not quite enough to leave most of us in genuine doubt (did we ever decide if The Professor was genuine or not?).
New, improved Gabble Check List update first thing Monday morning.
‘What Bush did was continuously telling Europe to its face that we are weak, useless, and unimportant’
Yes, the truth is painful. Puncturing Europe’s smug self-importance was one of Bush’s better moves, IMHO.
Bannedhorse. Official: The direction of the stock market is important for savers and pension funds over the long term, but not the main concern at the moment.
If it was Hillary against Colin Powell I think the Euro media would be split in half. I think a lot of the Euro Obamania is down to him being black.
Apologies if this has been discussed, but it struck me today the wildly different reaction of the SNP and the Lib Dems to Cameron’s attacks
SNP seem to be saying similar things to Dave judging by their conference, although they are not of course saying anything positive about Cameron. But the comments about debt and the housing bubble are the same.
Heard Nick Clegg on the radio though rubbishing Cameron and sounding basically like a Junior NuLab minister - no attacks AT ALL on the government! Does he not talk to Vince Cable!? Cable has been attacking the government for the debt bubble in a similar way to Cameron did today! Cable is so out of place in the Lib Dems, being as he is quite sensible and competent. Clegg on teh other hand is absolutely pathetic, dire, far worse than Ming who at least had some gravitas. What is the point of the Lib Dems at the moment?
Only the appalling Yvette Cooper is worse, apparently she thinks this is “juvenile point-scoring”. No - just pointing out the bleedin’ obvious.
313: this (quoting the response to a speech but not the speech) is an example of a BBC radio habit which annoys all parties in turn, but has some journalistic basis. What they do is alternate the speech and the rebuttal between successive bulletins. The yargue that many people keep the radio on all day, and would be bored to tears by hearing both speech and rebuttal repeated every hour. You can’t judge whether there’s a bias until you hear two successive bulletins.
You could say the beeb are being a bit silly not reporting his speech. From a lot of accounts it wasn’t all that great, and offered no real solutions. It is giving him more time to come up with a plan / narrative and anybody saying well he hasn’t spoken on the matter can be cut down with the fact it wasn’t reported.
I think the panorama was more effective attack on the government handling and was prime time. I’m surprised they did go with it as attack on the government at time of crisis from man with no plan. They could hang him that way, rather than trying to shut him out.
If they think that painting Cameron as a no policy man is going to work, well it hasn’t shown to be very effective so far, and it also just continues the focus on Brown spouting really the same manta or some rubbish about unemployed retraining as loft laggers.
322. you think he is 4% better today than yesterday then?
Looking at the polls, it is striking how much of a problem Ohio seems to be for Obama. If the current slight downtrend in the trackers survived the last debate, Ohio may not be too far from switching back to McCain.
Meanwhile, McCain continues to play the pre-crash map. I previously thought that could make some sense given that if the current overall lead holds, he simply cannot win (but if things change dramatically, some of those states may come into play again). Now I just read an article on Politico (which actually seems to have disappeared… could I be hallucinating?) saying that the McCain campaign will shift its focus to Virgina, Ohio, and Florida. If they change the strategy now, they will have wasted incredibly much time and money.
As predicted website has relegated Cameron speech to 5th spot (on the sidebar only) by the close of play. Apparently Bush urging patience and Kay Burley being stalked is more important now.
No.
Problem solved, Mike. Right, all out. Off to the pub.
333: The only possible plan is to give up trying to inflate the bubble and let it deflate with all the inevitable attendant pain. but that is not a popular message.
Then try and rebuild with some important differences, i.e. don;t overspend by 3% of GDP every year, don’t allow 125% mortgages, make sure people can’t get one without a deposit or telling the truth about their income…
335. Palin campaigning in areas with lots of plumbers is what matters imo.
336. I saw a bit of the Cameron speech. I got the feeling it was mainly aimed at the city folk and not really for mass consumption.
328. I didn’t say he was wrong. If I were the President of the United States, I would be much more concerned with Asia than with Europe, too. Still, as we can see with Iraq and now the economy, Europe is not quite Switzerland. Alienating Europe completely is simply not smart politics.
334 - Oh ed, take a minute to READ a post before commenting on it, please. I know it makes your lips sore, but it saves you looking like a clown.
BTW, I hope Lembit Opik gets the Lib Dem Presidency.
Mike , I just posted something and it disappeard..TWICE, can you unblock it please. There werent even any swear words!!!
330. I agree with this to some extent. The only reason I wanted Obama to win at first was because I thought it would be great for America to have a black President.
However, now I’ve seen the debates etc, it’s clear he’s also the best candidate on sheer merit.
342, for comedy value?
Radio 5 live did do an interview with Osborne aswell. But they quotes that naff polls again.
Osborne batted it away well by aking if you want to trade polls etc…and quoted another.
But that isn’t the point. This organisation claims it doesn’t report polls then uses our money to pay for what amounts to voodoo ones which will always be biased towards one party.
I feel a complain coming on…
345 - It’s either an outbreak of cross-party harmony or Sean thinks that Lembit is the best Lib Dem president a Tory could ask for.
I doubt anyone will see Gordon Brown as saviour for very long as his bailout plan is odds on to fail and only large amounts of luck could make it successful?
Secondly, the USA was went into a economic slowdown before the “Credit Crunch” and Bush was battling a recession threat long before the banks started failing, which kind of destroys the Beeb claims about the two issues being linked.
I be confident to say: Britain would have gone into recession even if the “Credit Crunch” had not occured.
345,347 He makes me laugh.
Just to show I’m not completely delusional (yet), here’s the story about McCain’s changing strategy I mentioned earlier.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17campaign.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
It’s kind of striking Colorado isn’t even on the list anymore. If McCain doesn’t compete in IA, NM, and CO, the entire hope of his campaign rests on… Pennsylvania. Well, good luck.
NRK has twice the repo rate of industry average
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7676671.stm
Landlord Brown doesn’t take kindly to defaulters…
349. definitely an MP to have a pint with
349 With him or at him?
I think it is important that whoever is in power don’t shirk from the fact that it is not a right to own your own house. It costs a lot of money to pay back, run and maintain. Labour needs to remember that equality is not everyone owning their own home, but havng what is right for them.
I heard a woman on the radio asking what the government would do for her as she has a family and a load of credit card debt and can;t remortgage to pay it off. Now she seemed to think this was someone elses fault. The financial systems have for too long not taken into account overall indebtedness when allowing credit. Only a mortgage company in my experience would ask this, and I do not know how the information is verified.
I think what is needed is a firm set of rules. 10% deposit minimum, remortgage to only 90% value of homes.
I also think that MPs would be more understanding if they weren’t quite so devolved from housing market. So give them a pay increase, but no more second homes paid for and kitted out by the taxpayer. Bubble economics that benefits mps on 2 homes rather than one. No more final salary pension scheme - wild swings of an economic cycle don’t relate to their golden investement, so why should they care about what the rest of us go through. I think the economic competence of a lot of MPs would improve if their was a risk to their on-going comfort in life.
And to those who say that it wouldn’t attract the best to the profession - what rubbish. It’s not like professional services in the private sector. MPs dont have a client base, or commercial requirements or bonus structures relating to profitablity, why should they benefit from professional salary levels without the professional responsibility.
McCain up 2 in new Survey USA poll, was 1 up two weeks ago.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=45bb3f2c-2191-49e1-9d67-a326956b75ca&c=42
353 At him, definitely.
350
“Mr. Obama responded by saying he wanted to “spread the wealth.” Mr. McCain repeatedly invoked that encounter with the man, whom he called “Joe the Plumber,” during the debate on Wednesday.
“Spread the wealth around: We will focus acutely on that,” said Steve Schmidt, Mr. McCain’s chief strategist. “Spread the wealth around is a big mistake.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/us/politics/17campaign.html?_r=1&oref=slogin
Sounds like yet another losing strategy by the McCain campaign.
355 Jan.
…. Very funny internals there !!
A six point AA deficit and Obama only winning 75% of them !!!
355 Florida!
285. I haven’t seen this reported in our press. This article is in Russian, but the headline is ‘8 million Ukrainians will be able to take Russian citizenship’. Note the date: the 22nd September. The Russians changed the rules for Ukrainians after the Georgian invasion. I wouldn’t be surprised if things kick off there in the next year or two. Russian speakers in the East of the country would definitely side with Russia against the West if the West got involved. Which means it’s game over already. Unless the EU wants a war with Russia. No. Thought not.
http://delo.ua/news/87411/
***NEW THREAD*** Peter the Punter doing what he does best.
Latest Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker for Pennsylvania :
McCain 39% .. Obama 53%
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/pa_obama_53_mccain_39_muhlenbe.php
354. No 100% mortgages. Say 90% max. If you can’t afford to save up 10% of the price - in a situation where you earn interest on your savings - how on earth can the bank be sure you will be able to repay the mortgage every month for 25 years - in a situation where you are paying interest on the mortgage.
You would think that banks would have thought of that.
That poll is now on SKY I can’t believe it.
326 - Thanks, Nick. Indeed, Adrian Harper is smooth and convincing, reminding me of one or two acquaintances who think that not only will Labour win in 2010 but that, as the Fairness Party, they’re entitled to form the government forever.
Generally, would it be too much to ask if every comment answered the question about the polls putting Labour back into contention? You could read half of these comments and be entitled to believe they’re about the US general election or are chat room messages.
Anecdotal reporting is crucial at this time. As I was certain would happen, the BBC and Sky News have done everything possible to relegate Cameron’s speech to after the ‘Fireman Rescues Cat from Tree’ story. Were there an imminente election this, of course might backfire. By enraging voters who don’t like their intelligence insulted by our Pravda-like BBC or by Mr. Murdoch, it would encourage Tory voters to get to the polling stations at the same time as promoting complacency in Labour’s support. That said, as we haven’t got an independent state broadcasting service, the truth about the voters’ feelings can only come from sources like this.
Afternoon all, incredible the different coverage between SKY and BBC re DC’s speech. However on 6 O’clock news Nick Robinson said Cameron glaiming Brown is the problem not the solution.
Interestingly SKY had on Jeremy Batson talking about economics, a politcal chap and a pollster. All agreed Brown gets a bounce now but the pollster said he expects in 3 months things to have returned to normal so I guess he is not seeing a real Brown bounce in the polls coming this weekend.
Incidentally Coldstone, Viscount Nuffield was far from being Britain’s richest man in the 1930s. Between the wars the 4th Duke of Sutherland was recognised as Britain’s biggest landowner and richest man. Even my cousin Sir John Fisher didnt have that much less than Nuffield!
346
In that interview, Osborne made a subtle jibe about ‘creditable polls’ or somesuch - does he read the blogs?
366
Is that Sir John Arbuthnot Fisher?
366
Sorry I should have said probably the, ‘Richest Industrialist’
58.
Loving your work. Will recommend for the Booker.