PaddyPower pay out on Obama
October 16th, 2008
Now there’s no need to wait for my 50/1 winnings
For the past few days I’ve looking forward to the big pay-day that I expect on November 5th - the day after the US presidential election when it looks as though Barack Obama will win a convincing victory.
Well that’s been brought forward nearly three weeks. PaddyPower have just paid out and I’m just about to transfer winnings on my bets at 33/1 and the one I will bore people about for years to come - the 50/1 that was recommended here on May 26th 2005.
Well done PaddyPower. Well done all those other PBers who got on at long prices.
UPDATE: Reuters is carrying this picture from the debate last night
Mike Smithson
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Congrats to all those who won, but isn’t this rather jumping the gun by the bookie? What if Obama loses? I don’t think he will, but I certainly wouldn’t pay out early.
Indeed, it’s a done deal.
Good adveretising - anyone going to reinvest in the same market
1 - Paddy Power often do that with big betting events. Its get them lots of publicity.
1- It just seems that the bookie is building positive publicity in a fairly risk-free way. Probably good business.
Will they still take a bet on Obama then ? And do they pay out instantly ?
McCain is 44th POTUS.
Well done Mike. Paddy Power of course paid out on “Yes” in the Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum so it’s nice for you but doesn’t necessarily mean they know anything.
However, this line from the latest Diageo/Hotline Tracker struck me today:
“Obama now holds a commanding advantage in battleground states. The Dem nominee leads 55-33% among LVs in CO, FL, MI, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, VA and WI. A week ago, in the survey completed 10/8, he led these voters 50-42%”
Obama’s national lead hasn’t moved much in that time by Hotline’s reckoning (it’s 8% now and was around there on 8 October). So going from an 8% to a 22% lead in the key states he needs is really striking and underlines how his superior budget and organisation in those states is having an impact I think.
Congrats Mike and the people who followed his advice.
Meanwhile, Reuters is running this picture:
http://tinyurl.com/53lz8u
Brutal.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7671046.stm
If the tories had suggested this I can imagine the outrage from the the comrades on here.
What an unbelievable bureaucratic nightmare. Where are the thought police?
8- I am convinced Obama will win but I don’t believe those numbers for a moment. If Obama leads by 22 points in a collection of swing states, he logically should have a similar lead on a national basis. That is ridiculous.
A repost, not something I have done before….
How many ex BBC people left to work for Labour or the Conservatives since 1995? I will kick off with 13 that joined Labour.
1 Ben Bradshaw MP and Minister
2 Tom Kelly, Tony Blair’s official spokesman
3 Phil Woolas Labour MP and Minister he was a producer on Newsnight.
4 Chris Bryant Labour MP joined the BBC as Head of European Affairs
5 Martin Sixsmith - BBC Foreign Correspondent 1980 - 1997 Following the 1997 election he left the BBC to work for the Labour as Director of Communications.
6 Joy Johnson - BBC Political News Editor 1992 - 1995. In 1995 joined New Labour as Campaigns Director.
7 Celia Barlow Labour MP for Hove. Between 1983 and 1995 she was a Westminster reporter and finally Home News Editor at the BBC. Her husband
8 Sam Jaffa was BBC North America Correspondent. Stood as Labour candidate for Eastleigh in 2001.
9 James Purnell, Work and Pensions Minister. He was BBC Head of Corporate Planning.
10 Lance Price - BBC Journalist 1981 - 1998. In 2000 he became the Labour Party’s Director of Communications.
11 Ed Richards - Ex BBC Controller of Corporate Strategy, in 1999 to become Tony Blair’s senior policy adviser on media etc.
12 Bill Bush - Ex BBC Head of Political Research
13 Catherine Rimmer - Ex BBC Political Research
and the infamous Jane Garvey quote about how pleased BBC staff were with a Labour win in 1997. Sums it all up.
“I do remember… the corridors of Broadcasting House were strewn with empty champagne bottles. I’ll always remember that…..”
Congratulations Mike.
Now we’d like another tip like that, please!
Crikey that picture of McCain is bad! He looks like he is croaking it!
8 - Yes a bit like the Yougov marginals and the tories - they seem to be aligned better with the voters where they need to be.
RodCrosby - filled in your avergae thing a few times today - perhaps you can reply - is it measurable where parties receive support. I mean tory policy previously probably favoured rural / white / middle class, but the party would win these seats anyway so the additional voted in FPTP don;t add up to much. Much as Labour has had better headline polling figures but if this inly occurs in seats they would win anyway then does it matter?
Betting-wise I think the ability to interpret this would be good for spreadbetting.
9 McCain and Miliband related? Who knew?
11. Not necessarily. Palin + “red meat” campaign tactics may simply have made solidly red states even redder, whilst losing them traction in swing states. Winning OK by 50% does JM no good at all if he loses Virginia by 5%.
I’ve put the picture up in the story. It’s awful.
19. Practicing for Halloween ?
11 - Perhaps. I accept it looks a bit of a logical stretch to race ahead like that without that being followed nationally.
But big places like California and Texas aren’t getting much beyond the national campaign so aren’t so subject to moves. If the wheels are coming off the McCain campaign, it does seem from state polls to be in a number of key states - particularly those Kerry won (MI, NH, WI) and a few Bush ones (VA and FL particularly striking just now).
18- I don’t buy your theory that McCain is building momentum in traditionally GOP states while collapsing in swing states. There’s no precedent for such a trend that I can point to nor any credible evidence for it. If you can point me to evidence of a huge recent McCain upswing in conservative states, I’ll reconsider.
Where’s Roger to assure us that it still won’t happen.
8. What are LVs?
Do I detect a change in the narrative today. Even Mr Michael White sounds iffy about the Saviour. Creeping concern that once again in the media that they may have made themselves look foolish as they did in TETNW and David Davis?
It is not in full flow yet but with the Independent, Guardian, Sun, Telegraph all running pieces of concern, it might be a beginning.
FTSE - down 6%.
21- But for your theory to be correct, McCain must be building support in conservative states (and possibly liberal states) to compensate for what he’s losing in swing states. Do you have evidence of that?
Well Done Mike. Roger’s “no” is even funnier.
A technical question re. the election rather than the bet. What would happen if, God forbid, Obama fell under a bus between now and election day? Has it happened to a previous candidate?
Great snap BTW
25:
Sorry. I can’t figure out what TETNW means.
12.
Lucian Hudson went from BBC World to be Head of Communications at DEFRA.
Tories:
Chris Grayling MP is a former BBC news producer.
Andrew Scadding - former BBC Current Affairs producer - was Deputy Head of Media for the Conservatives, and was succeeded by
Nick Longworth, a former BBC World Programme Editor. [N.B. Scadding is now back at the BBC as Head of Lunching Politicians.]
er… that’s it.
John McCain will be delighted to hear that PP have paid out, given their somewhat sketchy track record in this area…
That is begging for a caption competition!
Where’s Gabble? Brown’s bailout wheeze seems to have miserably failed. FTSE tanking.
29:
Ah.. Got it. The Election that Never Was.
I was in Trafalgar Square today for the Olympics parade. I think that many of the crowd were cheering in delight at what Boris said, in celebration of his usual style and in expectation of the way he does it - not necessarily meaning that they agree or approve of what he actually said. It’s a bit like the distinction between “laughing at” and “laughing with” someone.
I am however annoyed with the wicked biased BBC; I was expecting the parade programme to finish promptly in time for the 1 O’Clock News, so I set my video to stop recording at 1:05. The last exciting bit with Boris went on until about 1:15, so I won’t have got it recorded.
27 - In fairness, the deep red and deep blue states just aren’t polled that often (e.g. on electoral-vote.com, the latest poll for Tennessee is 29 September, Texas is 8 October, California is 9 October).
As I say, I think 8% to 22% sounds too far. But if Obama is doing at all better in the swing states mentioned than nationally (even if not 14% better) that is bad news for McCain on top of the fact that he is simply behind in national polls.
30. Add.
And, of course, Guto Hari, went from BBC political correspondent, via US correspondent, to Director of Communications for Boris.
[He also raised Welsh content on BBC News to well above 5% in concert with Heeeuw Edwards.]
Gordon refuses to rule out snap election !
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23574085-details/PM+refuses+to+veto+election/article.do
Gordon orders fuel price cut !
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23574084-details/Brown+orders+fuel+price+cut/article.do
35- The theory sounds utterly ridiculous to me. Unless there’s real evidence of a McCain surge in conservative and/or liberal states, I won’t hesitate to call the 22 point figure garbage.
24 - LVs = likely voters (as opposed to RVs = registered voters)
Does Roger’s ‘no’ to Obama at 50-1 and ‘yes’ to Barclays at 600p+ officially make him the worst punter on the planet?
22. Well solidly red states tend not to get polled that often. But a look at 538 suggests that post Palin TX, OK, AK, UT, AL have got redder - whilst Florida, Virginia, Colorado, North carolina and to an extent Ohio have shifted strongly to BO.
36: ‘Guto Hari, went from BBC political correspondent, via US correspondent, to Director of Communications for Boris.’
Which is ironic when you consider Hari was dragged over the coals for pro-Labour ‘impartiality’ himself:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1510678/BBC-admits-to-bias-in-news-report.html
28. The election on 4th November would be the same as it is already - the election of people to be in the Electoral College. I reckon the Democratic Party would simply tell their electors to vote for Joe Biden on 15th December. Or Hilllary. As long as 270 or more electors all vote for the same person, that person would be the next president.
The nearest equivalent was Horace Greeley, who died in 1872 after the popular election in November but before the Electoral College election in December. The Greeley electors voted for various other candidates, but three members of the EC voted for Greeley anyway, and their votes were adjudged to be spoilt/wasted/invalid because they had voted for someone who was not a “person”. In that case in 1872, it didn’t matter because Greeley had lost the popular election in November anyway.
38 - The polls just don’t exist for those states so I’m not sure what I can do…
37. Bullying as usual. Oil is priced in dollars. The pound has fallen against the dollar. The oil price fall does not, therefore, translate into an automatic cut in price at the pumps. And it has been falling (Diesel in my area has dropped 10p a litre in the past two weeks) without Gordon ‘ordering’ a cut.
And the Treasury still takes 80% of the price.
Well done and thanks to Mike! Well done and thanks also to Paddy Power!
So what to do with the winnings? Reinvest at 1/9 Obama. No, I don’t think Paddy Power will pay out again immediately! Back the SNP at 1/2 to win Glenrothes? Or await Mike’s next 50/1 winner? The best price I got following Mike’s tip was 12/1 with Hills and I got 8/1 from Paddy Power.
I thought that photo of MCcain was a mock up when I first saw it. The camera can be very cruel.
Coming to the BBC debate late. Re several two threads back. You don’t need a TV at all to be liable.
Whilst watching the 42 days vote at http://www.bbc.co.uk/parliament earlier this week I was amazed that they have a big reminder on the page that you need a TV licence to watch it. It really is ridiculous.
Great news. My PP account is looking very happy. Hat tip to Mike for alerting us to BO.
Thanks for those who have played with the widget - not enough yet to draw robust conclusions, unfortunately.
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/avgame.xls
16. I’m not sure I get your question. If you are asking what are the regional swings, then we don’t know for sure since sub-samples are too small to draw conclusions. However, we know in Scotland, from national Scottish polls, that Labour are doing significantly better relative to the Tories than elsewhere (although of course the SNP performance is more relevant to the seat outcomes). There may also just be a hint that Labour are doing a bit better in London.
However, the analysis I did a while ago indicates that regional swings have in the past and will continue to have minimal impact on the overall outcome of the election. The natural tendency for them to cancel out is very strong.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/16/rod-crosby-asks-will-regional-swings-help-the-tories/
In case this hasn’t been posted, this week’s QT Panel will be:
Secretary Geoff Hoon
Shadow Secretary Dominic Grieve
Julia Goldsworthy
Clare Short
and James Caan
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/question_time/7669221.stm
How big is your actual 50/1 win? What was the original stake?
I don’t know if you’ve all been following the growing narrative in the U.S. mainstream media that McCain and Palin rallies are filled with vile racist hatemongers, presumably the sort of folks we always somehow knew populated the ranks of the GOP. According to the Secret Service, one of the stories fuelling this narrative was penned by a journalist who, as it turns out, is the ONLY identifiable person who heard a member of a McCain rally crowd call for the death of Obama!
http://www.timesleader.com/news/breakingnews/Secret_Service_says_Kill_him_allegation_unfounded_.html
It has apparently gotten so bad that the U.S. media now just makes up stuff and runs with it, putting themselves forward as the only witnesses to the subjects of their stories, thus enabling them to broadcast throughout the nation what a bunch of horrible racists Republicans are.
If the only journalistic standard left is “hmm, what would I like people to believe about Republicans today?,” and then spreading lies inspired by those musings, then the U.S. media have truly gone to the very bottom of the barrel.
Mike, I think you should donate a small portion of your winnings to Rogerdamus.
Some kind of booby prize for worst PBC prediction ever.
Robusticus Sorry, didn’t mean to be Delphic.
50. 1 Tory, 3 Lefties and a Hollywood Actor.
Who says the beeb is biased ?
re 37 What insane nonsense. The government “orders” a fuel price cut. It doesn’t need to order, it can do it at a stroke by reducing fuel duty, yet it plans to put it up by 2p on 1st October.
So basically what Brown is saying to the oil companies is reduce your fuel price so people won’t notice when we put it up again on 1st October.
I don’t know how and in which context Reuters provides the picture of McCain shown in the update above, but I don’t think it’s appropriate. I’m sure you could find stills in which Obama looks stupid. Isn’t Reuters supposed to be neutral?
41- McCain has perhaps gained 10 points in Texas and there’s been no change in Alabama, while the other states you mention have negligible populations. Still no adequate evidence for the theory…
Dear Michael, Username:
Well, after Andrew Marr failed to land any punches worthy of the name during last night’s 9 o’clock News, we’ve decided to pay out on Mike Smithson as the next Chairman of Question Time.
We figured it was only a matter of time - and punters might as well get their winnings now rather than wait 3 weeks for a result that is pretty inevitable.
Enjoy.
57- Reuters, the AP, AFP, NPR, PBS, the BBC, etc. They’re all supposed to be neutral, but none of them are.
Hmmm. Long McCain/long lone gunman?
60. don’t tell me - they all have a natural guardianista bias.
(OT)
Using the USA social security actuarial statistics for life expectancy from 2003, (and assuming that they are similar for people in the UK), I calculated the probabilities that the 34 Blue Peter presenters have of being already dead (based on their age and gender). For example, Christopher Trace, having been born in 1933, would be 75 years old and has therefore got a probability of 58% of still being alive; Michael Sundin, having been born in 1961, has a 93% probability of being still alive.
In spite of the fact that the three dead BP presenters all died young (59, 41 and 28), my calculation was that there is an expectation that 30.97 out of the 34 should still be alive - almost exactly correct. Happy 50th Birthday BP!
59.
With Compliments of Ian Dale
Poll Result: And The Next Question Time Host Is…
Iain Dale 4:28 PM
Well, it’s a two horse race according to readers of this blog. And Andrew Neil wins it by a short neck from Jeremy Paxman.
Andrew Neil 30%
Jeremy Paxman 28%
Eddie Mair 11%
Martha Kearney 6
Andrew Marr 4%
Jeremy Vine 4%
All the others were 3% or less. 677 people voted.
Get on before Shadsy notices
40 Roger worst and best: his Oscar tipping is unrivalled.
58 - Texas is a pretty huge state though (24 million - 7-8% of the US total) so if he is up there over the past month or so against the prevailing national tide then that’s fairly significant in terms of how he is doing against the average in states which are more relevant to the election.
As I say, I think the Hotline number must be a statistical blip to some extent but if it has ANY truth it is a problem for McCain in addition to the simple “he’s a few % behind nationally” problem
I think we are being a bit harsh on the BBC. They are making great strides in developing a stance more independent and critical of the government. This should be ready for adoption soon, say in 2010.
49 - Yes sorry looking back was poorly phrased.
The regional swings article was very interesting, and as you pointed out in that article (i think) it is difficult to have big regional swings because they either even out, or affect the overall result.
My question is perhaps - how valid are these marginal polls? I think Labour have recently moved up but as they shore up the vote from the left, which will not win them any marginals. Therefore the fact that they have had a 4% rise may not make that much of a difference actually in the seats where they need to do well.
I would be interested to know how many seats of the 650 at the next election have a chance of changing hands. I remember reading about a system at the last election which catergorised seats in an election by supermarkets, newspapers etc and was quite accurate, is that the way forward?
O/T
26 from a few threads back
Sorry but the RBS and HBOS bailouts were for one political stunt only - that is to make Scotland’s two biggest financial institutions under UK government control hence no apparent case for independence. If I ran these banks, RBS sell off Natwest and HBOS would sell off Halifax plc. Simple - no need for government money.
Gordon Brown keeps on spinning about if Scotland were independent then it too largest banks would not have been bailed out - my solution about puts this argument to the sword, an independent Scotland may keep the pound so the Bank of England would continue to control Scottish Banks. What’s the difference? Scotland and England can become sovereign nation states again or remain in some socialist union where everyone is unhappy.
PS Are these not loans to these banks?
64
4% of people voted for Jeremmy Vine. WOW!!! To me he is just a figure of ridicule after his just appallingly ghastly appearance ans a cowboy on the local elections coverage. Whatever possessed him to do it is beyond me.
52 & 60. You’re getting a bit desperate. I saw, in passing, some film of a Palin rally a few days ago and there were certainly some very unpleasant chants and shouts going on when she mentioned Obama including some that sounded very like the words you’re claiming were invented.
May not have been the same rally, of course.
66 - Remember the Hotline sample sizes. They are only c.850 over 3-days. For the battlegrounds that is down to 350 leaving massive margins of error. Plus the battleground samples are probably not weighted appropriately (similar to looking at Scottish sub-samples)
However all the evidence suggests a stronger ground game for Obama and he is drowning McCain with his TV spending. Plus 538 suggests he is more likely to win the electoral college than the popular vote.
66- A ten point swing to McCain in Texas equates to about a 0.7% swing to McCain on a national basis. This doesn’t go very far to support the theory of a big pro-McCain swing in conservative states explaining national polls in light of a huge pro-Obama swing in the swing states.
By the way, you mentioned one other state with a non-negligible population: Oklahoma. Polls there show no post-Palin bounce for McCain, just as is the case in Alabama. Also, the post-Palin bounce for McCain has pretty thin polling support, and may itself be illusory. Conclusion: the theory fails.
SKY News: Brown: “Our Action Plan Will Work”
The use of “our” is clearly as sign that the whole thing is unravelling.
Tomorrow, it will be the “EU Plan”. Saturday, the “Swedish Plan”.
Sunday’s papers will be full of the “Tories Plan”
69. The problem with your solution is that both have been trying sell divisions - Direct Line, Churchill and some Australian assets - for weeks without success. And these would be easy to unscramble, unlike NatWest and Halifax from back-office systems.
And who are the likely takes for Halifax and NatWest that would make an ‘easy’ purchase at a good price?
In the current climate these buyers don’t exist.
Gordon Brown will be demanding reductions in the price of wheat to help hard pressed families, copper to help hard pressed electrical component manufacturers and any other commodities he has noticed are already falling - this achievement will of course confirm his superhuman powers over natural forces.
73- Sorry, I meant to say in the last paragraph of post 73 “Also, the post-Palin bounce for McCain IN TEXAS has pretty thin polling support, and may itself be illusory. Conclusion: the theory fails.
55. It’s another James Caan. He’s a rich businessman, and therefore less likely to be a “leftie” than a Hollywood actor.
69. Brown did say earlier in the year that he would do anything it took to stop the SNP. He is certainly twisted enough to beggar the country to get his way.
78. Like Duncan Bannatyne you mean ?
A LONG way O/T and not even at all relevant to PB but it made laugh a lot! I honestly saw these stories one after the other and the picture in the second one cracked me up
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/3195671/Northerners-less-likely-to-wash-their-hands-after-going-to-the-toilet.html
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/telegraph/multimedia/archive/01010/wayne-rooney_1010121c.jpg
68 - As I think David H has pointed out before improvements with the base CAN help in the marginals. Most marginals will have core voters as well as swing voters. Winning back those core voters will help in marginal as well as safe seats. An example would be a swing seat with 45% core Conservative voters and 45% core Labour voters with only 10% swing voters. Here disproportionate turnout will play a big role in the result.
You may be right that the increase in Labour support has come disproportionately in safe seats but it is unlikely that it hasn’t helped in marginals (if only to a lesser degree)
Latest estimates/odds/value table. Interesting addition is Arkansas - Ladbrokes just cut their odds their from 9.0 to 5.0.
State RCP 538 Intrade Odds (at book) Value
Montana -9.2 10% 22 4.00 ladbrokes 0.640
Georgia -7.0 10% 25 4.00 b365 0.700
Indiana -3.8 36% 44 2.00 paddy 0.800
S Dakota ?? 8% 12 8.00 ladbrokes 0.800
N Dakota ??? 19% 32 3.50 b365 0.893
New Mex 8.4 91% 85 1.14 paddy 1.003
Ohio 3.4 79% 67 1.44 stanjames 1.051
Missouri 1.8 64% 64 1.66 stanjames 1.062
Penn 13.6 99% 90 1.14 paddy 1.077
Colorado 5.8 91% 85 1.25 stanjames 1.100
Virginia 8.6 94% 78 1.28 stanjames 1.101
Nevada 3.0 78% 77 1.44 stanjames 1.116
N Car 1.2 60% 66 1.80 b365 1.134
New Hamp 10.4 95% 91 1.22 ladbrokes 1.135
Florida 4.8 85% 78 1.44 stanjames 1.174
W Virginia -1.5 52% 45 2.50 ladbrokes 1.213
Louisiana -15.4 12% 14 11.00 paddy 1.430
Arkansas ?? 34% 38 7 paddy 2.520
40. Rogerdamus’s famous No to Obama as prez, takes some beating in bad predictions, but I actually think his famous prognostication about the credit crunch was his ultimate effort.
When shown queues of Northern Rock customers, about a year ago, and told this might be the beginnings of something serious, he said
“this will all be forgotten about by Friday”.
I understand one of Roger’s ancestors was in Sarajevo in August 1914, and was overheard saying - “oh for God’s sake, it’s just an archduke, no one will care”.
ON-topic - congrats Mike.
ON-PREVIOUS topic - the BBC are indeed biassed (I think more culturally than politically), but at least they understand a changing media narrative.
On BBC24 this evening they just showed a clip of Brown at the EU summit, where he was asked, by a Beeb reporter (I think): “prime minister, your big plan has failed, hasn’t it?”
The Inter-Galactic Banking Superhero looked somewhat uncomfortable.
The glow is already fading - and fast.
Damnit, how do I get that to format right, anyone?
re the McCain picture. The incident is on the video of the debate at 1 hour 29 minutes and 10 seconds.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7673090.stm
Gordon order petrol price cut, what next?
Gordon orders sun to shine.
It’s like the daily mash
Noiced again depsrate measures to day. Historic carbon cuts agreed for 2050 - let the buggers in government in 2035 worry about that one then when they are all on expenses in house of Lords. If they are going to set targets for 2050 why not set a total ban on carbon 2100. Might as well we’ll all be dead by then.
SNP may say BBC biased against them. Currently even with their conference opening today, the Politics page hardly mentions them, Scottish page has one story about Alex Salmond and Under Scottish Politics Brian Taylor is taking about Football. On the Politics page the conference is the 3rd story under more stories.
78. There’s another James Caan? How weird.
#74. SKY News: Brown: “Our Action Plan Will Work”
The use of “our” is clearly as sign that the whole thing is unravelling.
“The bailout which started in America”
80. Uh, no. I mean that multimillionaire tycoons are less prone to soft-left sympathies than luvvies.
37. If only Gord had the guts to actually call an election. Alas, we know he’ll bottle it and cling on to the very last year, month, week, day, hour and minute before he has to face the electorate and then he’ll have to be pulled out of of Downing St. kicking and screaming after he loses said election.
SaS - There has been lots of speculation that the RNC will start spending money trying to help stem losses in the Senate. What do you think the chances are that the DNC will spend money on challengers? Given the huge Obama spending advantage it seems to make sense. Last week Obama outspent McCain/RNC about $32m to $16m. Given the diminishing return of ads spending above this level is unlikely to make a massive difference.
However DNC spending in long-shot states like Kentucky, Georgia, Maine, Nebraska and Oklahoma could turn a couple of extra Senate seats and play to the 50-state strategy. Probably won’t happen but it is what I would do were I Howard Dean. The only complication being that much of the DNC’s income will be in the Obama VIctory Fund.
Meant to post this comment all day. Was it obvious that Labour trying to align themselves to every possibloe success would backfire.
“The plan has been well received”
“Right tell the civil servant he will get a knighthood if he shuts up, and we will say GB designed it himself. SUperman of the economy sounds good to me”
84. “I understand one of Roger’s ancestors was in Sarajevo in August 1914, and was overheard saying - “oh for God’s sake, it’s just an archduke, no one will care”.\”
EPIC LOL.
87. Carbon cuts for 2050. yeah.
Easy peasy, since some 30% of UK electricity generating capacity is in the last decade of its life and, as yet, we have no firm commitment, plans, etc for new build, it won’t be carbon emissions we’ll be worrying about but semi-permanent rota power cuts.
Talk about fiddling while Rome burns even at the cost of carbon emissions.
Evening Standard leader comment stating the “strange triumphalism” of Brown over this economic disaster is not appealing.
89 From Wikipedia
“It was around this time that I went to see the film The Godfather with some friends. As the opening credits rolled, I noticed the name James Caan, who at the time was one of the coolest actors in Hollywood.
I was called Nazim Khan, and it suddenly struck me that I could spell my surname in a different way. I mentioned this to my friends and they started calling me James Caan as a joke. Then I had some business cards printed with my ‘new’ name on for fun - and somehow the name stuck.
Presenting myself as James Caan was a great opener with potential clients, so I used it all the time, eventually changing my name by deed poll some years later, much to my father’s disapproval.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Caan_(entrepreneur)
93- If I were running the RNC, the ONLY thing I’d be concerned about right now would be saving Senate seats. To that end, I’d write off about three currently GOP-held Senate seats and target the approximately six remaining seats that need saving (i.e., Alaska, Georgia, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina and Oregon).
Of the DNC long-shots, the only one where they have a realistic shot is Georgia. But given their vast quantities of cash and brimming confidence, they will probably fritter away some of those resources in states they won’t win rather than targeting strictly the states that matter.
In my opinion, a 50-state strategy is foolish if actually attempted, but there may be some propaganda value in pretending you’re waging such a strategy if the other party can be tricked into believing it. The best strategy is always to target the most realistic and valuable prizes and refine the targeting as election day approaches. A wide net is a bad idea.
Clare Short is the only lefty on QT this week then.
And nobody on the left of the Labour Party has any time for her any more, since the Iraq War.
It’s a shame we so rarely get representatives from Britain’s biggest voluntary membership organisations: the trade unions. And when we do, it’s usually up-Brown’s-jacksy Derek Simpson.
97 Gordo will be ordering hens to lay more eggs soon, followed by a samonella outbreak…
Will we see this long awaited and much anticipated marginals poll tonight I wonder? If it favourable for Labour perhaps we’ll have an election on Thursday 4th December? Brown’s early Xmas present to the nation - out in time for Christmas!
96. I think Britain should pledge to decrease human sadness by 50percent within the next six decades, and we should sign up to the European Union’s goal, of eliminating death altogether by 2500AD.
Equally, we must make a binding and solemn commitment to increase the number of nice tunes overheard on the radio by housewives with red hair.
well he talks about the price of milk and eggs enough on tv….
Congrats Mike and to all others who made the bet.
Now I am asking myself why didn’t I know about pb.com in 2005!
102 Christmas Day falls on a Thursday this year - we could have an Xmas election!
Good on you, Paddy Power and congratulations to you Mike - I really had no idea you were on Obama at 50-1!
Does this mean you’ll be spending Christmas with your Missus at the Sandy Lane Hotel in Barbados?
99 Even you couldn’t mourn the ousting of Chambliss after his disgusting campaign to beat Clelland surely.
79. You are right, Labour is trying absolutely anything to kill off Scottish and English nationalism. The problem for Labour is how long will it be before we are completely sick of the stunts. Buying votes from Scotland will soon backfire.
Congratulations Mike!
Do we know exactly how many PBers got on at 50/1?
Perhaps a list should be compiled and we could form a sort of mini-club within PB - The 50/1 Club. We could have badges and T-Shirts made and once a year on the Anniversary of your article we could meet to have a Party. Naturally we’d invite Roger along, if only to buy the drinks.
What do you think?
99 - So you agree that the DNC should put money into Senate races?
For the GOP I don’t see much point in spending money in Alaska. If Stevens is convicted he loses, if he is acquitted he will likely hold on. Either way Alaskans know him pretty well. Of the others you mention they are a good mix. GA, MS and MN are still very winnable. The Democrats are favoured in NC and Oregon but not overwhelmingly so.
For the Democrats I think Kentucky is winnable. The last 3 polls have shown leads for McConnell of 9, 3 and 1 point(s). Maine is a cheap state and a blue one, a lot of money could go a long way. Collins is popular and should hold on but it is probably worth a gamble.
Past that you are probably right about Oklahoma and Nebraska. But the Democratic candidates Rice and Kleeb are both attractive and running good campaigns. Rice, for example, raised as much money as Inhofe in the last quarter. Plus Democrats can win in these states. Again worth a gamble if only to give these guys a better chance at future office.
107 Mike’s bet, PfP, was almost as much a secret as Benenedict’s Blog.
106. Works for me. Come on Gord, lets be havin’ you.
113
I thought he might go now, but lets think about this for a moment. To call an election now would be extremely courageous… end of story.
114 - Courage? Gordon wrote the book
I think you should re-invest some of it on yourself to be Next Question Time host, Mike.
12 & 30
Patrick Mercer MP. Former BBC Defence correspondent on the Today Programme
re 87 given the 15% depreciation of the pound since June the petrol price is exactly where you’d expect given the latest crude oil price when oil was last at this level in dollars.
re 106 the fact that Christmas day is a Thursday is neither here nor there when it comes to an election, the fact that it is Christmas day is, as elections are not possible on the variousdies non Saturdays, Sundays and bank holidays.
Damn these people who put money on Obama
Re: Pres debate last night. Don’t know if it’s been said already (just been catching up) but got it on CNN now, seeing it for the first time today, and McCain’s eyes look, well, weird. He really doesn’t look like a well man.
As for a caption for the picture: How about “McCain sees Palin without her makeup on”?
117. A senior editor on the Today prog left several years ago to work at Cons Central Office.
Does Paddy Power’s generosity know no bounds?
They are now offering handicap bets both priced at 5/6 on either McCain + 160 ECVs winning or Obama -140 ECVs winning, with a 33-1 price for an exact tie on this basis.
If my arithmetic is correct, the tie is achieved at 399-139. Surely no one is expecting Obama to secure 399 or more ECVs and therefore backing McCain +160 looks terrific value.
Perhaps Jack W or another expert would indicate how far down the list of would-be GOP states Obama would have to succeed to deliver 400 ECVs - there must be some pretty fancy odds on offer for states at the lower end of such a list.
121
Leaving the BBC… begs the question why did they leave the BBC???
122. I think the tie would be at 349-189. PfP
Damian Green MP was also a financial correspondent on BBC radio
99 Depends what you mean by a ‘50 state strategy’. My understanding of what Dean meant by it, and what Obama is now implementing, is that the Democratic Party should be building and campaigning in every state.
That does not mean believing they can win every state in a Presidential election.
What it could mean is that Obama and the DNC might move resources around in such a way as to maximise their holds and gains in marginal Senate, House and Gubernatorial races alongside securing victory in the Presidential.
The stratgey certainly seems to have worked in that the campaigning and capacity building that has gone on during the past four years does seem to have done the groundwork that has allowed some new states to be in play that wouldn’t have been dreamt of five or six years ago.
John Loony,you are truly a sad sack.
Mike Smithson is just about the best tipster on the entire internet and this is one of his many triumphs.
This sickens you I know and you try to give yourself comfort by suggesting he didn’t have a big bet on Obama because that once again makes you feel big…or bigger.
Let me tell you a little about Mike.
One day in 2008 we both embarked on a betting odyssey.I began the session opposing Mike and at the end of it he was my White Knight.
To make it short,I won about £800 from a losing position.He won over £3000 from a winning position.It was all over in a couple of hours !
37.According to Benedict Brogan’s sources, Brown “rules out snap election”.
”
There’s been some fun to be had this week speculating that Gordon Brown might be tempted to bank some profits by calling a sudden election on the back of his economy-saving Messiah moment. Labour united, polls narrowing, plaudits all around… and just enough time to go to the polls before the bill for the Age of Irresponsibility comes due. My colleagues in Brussels rightly thought to ask the PM the election question earlier, knowing full well that whatever answer he gave it would be a story. He hedged by talking about getting on with the job and the economy having his undivided attention, and so by convention that means he hasn’t ruled it out.
But I’ve spoken to a number of Brown Central folk about this in recent days, and I’d be cautious about putting money on the idea of a sudden election. Why? First, impossible to find anyone who believes that the situation has changed that much. “Breathing room” rather than “turnaround” is how current conditions are being described, and as today’s latest market bloodbath shows, the only certainty is extreme volatility. Second, don’t underestimate how much the horror of last year’s on-off election remains seared on the Brown Central consciousness. The fact is, they just can’t face it.”
128.Sorry the link is here
124 Shadsy, you’re quite right of course, silly me.
Please ignore my post at 122 everyone.
Latest Gallup trackers :
Registered Voters
McCain 43% .. Obama 49%
Likely Voters
McCain 47% .. Obama 49%
Likely Voters Plus
McCain 45% .. Obama 51%
http://www.gallup.com/Home.aspx
128 - maybe an admission that the very real attempts made last week to portray Brown as the superhero isn’t resonating so much as first thought? Interesting use of “breathing room”.
Why mention a snap election anyway if that’s the case?
131 - Slight tightening today in the trackers, 3 moved to McCain (Rasmussen, Gallup and Battleground) and 1 to Obama (Zogby) with 3 flat (TIPP, Hotline and R2K). Nothing dramatic but suggests the race will tighten rather than balloon - will be interesting to see what effect the debate has. I reckon we will see a modest movement to Obama.
122 PfP. 400 EV plus implies a number of third tier McCain states begin to fall including Georgia, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.
131- Jack W
Stupid question maybe but what do they call “likely voters plus”?
100.
“up-Brown’s-jacksy Derek Simpson.”
Explains why he always looks like he’s gort a bad attack of Irritable Bowel Syndrome.
McCain at 14 on Intrade :
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
135 - This assumes higher minority and youth turnout.
74.
76.”Gordon Brown will be demanding reductions in the price of wheat to help hard pressed families, copper to help hard pressed electrical component manufacturers and any other commodities he has noticed are already falling - this achievement will of course confirm his superhuman powers over natural forces.”
But when is he going to demand that someone turns water into wine, preferable a robust and fruity one?
135 Chris (B). Its Gallups increased AA, latino, new registration turnout model. One might also call it the Selzer model.
It is a good job McCain is not Gordon Brown. Guido would have had all sorts of evil captions if he was running after Chameron with his tongue out like that.
That photo might well be McCain’s salvation. It is so awful a lot of people will believe it must be a fake, photoshopped by terrorist Obamaistas - and vote mcCain in sympathy at the disgraceful treatment.
132 anonymous and dangerous - I can’t believe that a 2008 election is a realistic prospect. Even if the thought has crossed the minds of Brown’s advisers, they must now realise that Brown Bounce Mark 2 (also known as the ‘Smithson Media Narrative Bounce’) is already fading, and the market volatility is simply too great. The financial sector is still highly dangerous, and they wouldn’t want to risk a nasty surprise just before polling day. In any case, they are totally unprepared, the party finances are dire, and you don’t normally hold elections in the dark days of winter.
2009, however, can’t be completely ruled out, if it looks as though the wider economy is going to continue to deteriorate throughout 2009 and into 2010 (which I think is very likely). They might be tempted to cut and run before the full horror has hit the electorate.
138-140- Thanks!
It will be interesting to see if this Selzer model is closer to reality.
25 Add the Times to that list.
95. Brilliant
32 - quite right. Come out of your rabbit hatch Gabble - no hiding on a day like this!
Seriously, another absolutely futile move by the BoE to curb loan disclosure. Has it not occurred to anyone in Threadneedle Street that investors require all the information they can get their hands on in these uncertain times? Economics 101 courses required for all of them me thinks.
The press are turning as people realise all Brown did was what anyone would do when faced with the cash points running dry - the economic problems remain the same.
Companies renewing electricty and gas contracts this autumn set 18 months ago, face a 80-140% increase in costs. A lot more than residential customers. sure isnt going to help budgets.
Stupid question maybe but what do they call “likely voters plus”?
The traditional ‘likely voters’ figures rely on the same sort of people voting as usually do; given the nature of this election that would probably leave the pollsters fighting the last war, hence some of them trying to project what will happen rather than hoping that there will be no change.
Latest Muhlenberg/Morning call Pennsylvania tracker :
McCain 37% .. Obama 53%
Note - Yesterday - M-38/O-52
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/muhlenberg1016.pdf
147- ukpaul
It’s a very interesting approach. Let’s hope it doesn’t end in “zogbyitis”.
If anyone compares the latest two videos, they will see why Paddy Power is paying out. Obama’ video nails McCain on being a 90% plus Bush acolyte from McCain’s own lips; McCain, in his, defensively moves onto the same Obama-chosen ground, trying to shrug off the last eight Bush years as being a bit like athlete’s foot rather than a raging flu, before asking voters to chose his brand of sock talc. Even I could have done him a better video. Doomed.
111- I disagree with you about Alaska. It doesn’t matter that people know Stevens; the issue is whether they will be convinced to vote for him or not, and much of that depends on the spin surrounding his trial. The RNC would be grossly negligent to ignore Alaska, which is a very cheap media market anyway and so it would cost them little to intervene there.
And of course the DNC should be spending its money on Senate races. They should ignore the presidential race, spend a little on House races, and pour their resources into Senate races.
Spending money on losing races in Nebraska and Oklahoma is a strategy for a party that has so much money that they don’t know what to do with it. If those Democratic Senate candidates have successful futures in those states, it won’t be determined by the DNC’s expenditure of resources in those states today. Frankly, I would not imagine that the near future will be very rosy for Democrats in those states anyway as I expect this year to be their high water mark.
Mike,
Congatulations, but, as every schoolboy is (was?) taught: “It’s not whether you win or lose, but how you place the bet.”
Warning: Only adults with a strong disposition should view this site. Ensure your keyboard is placed more than a vomit-length away from your chin before the upload is completed.
http://www.palinaspresident.us/
126- Moving resources around to win marginal House and Senate races is the opposite of a 50-state strategy. In fact, it is much better than a 50-state strategy because it focuses on winning presently available and winnable seats rather than speculative future successes. State party building should of course be done primarily at the state level and with rational assistance from the national parties, but pouring resources into unwinnable states and campaigns in a presidential election year in order to execute a 50-state strategy is foolishness.
126- One other comment for you. Cause and effect can be tricky things. I’d suggest that strengthening Democratic ground operations (call it the 50-state strategy if you like) in many states “that wouldn’t have been dreamt of five or six years ago” is more effect than cause. That is, the Democratic boats have been rising and ground-level enthusiasm has been building accordingly. Those ground organizations in turn aren’t causing Obama’s success, but rather both have similar causes. You might as well have said that LBJ’s landslide in 1964 was caused by growing success on the ground for Democrats, but by 1968 LBJ was so unpopular that he didn’t even try to win another term in office and left Humphrey to try to win what turned out to be a losing battle against Nixon.
New Christopher Newport Uni poll for Virginia :
McCain 46.8% .. Obama 53.2%
http://universityrelations.cnu.edu/news/2008/10_16_08poll.html
According to the Times the local government spending watchdog has begun an internal inquiry after it emerged that it had invested £10 million in collapsed Icelandic banks this year.
Councils’ spending watchdog had £10m in collapsed Icelandic banks - Times Online#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=2015164#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=2015164#cid=OTC-RSS&attr=2015164
151 - You are right that Alaska has a cheap media market but I think the race hinges so much on the trial that any spending is unlikely to have much effect.
Oklahoma has a Democratic Governor. Nebraska already has a Democratic Senator. In the US it is possible for individuals to get elected in states of a very different partisan hue. Kleeb and Rice may not win this time but the closer they get the higher their name recognition will be and the greater chance of success they will have in future races.
Re: 50-state strategy. There was a big disagreement between Dean and Emanuel over this in 2006, with Rahm making the argument you do. Yet the Democrats still made 30-gains that year. There is obviously a trade-off to be made but the argument for the 50-state strategy is that it puts you in a position to take advantage of situations that arise unexpectedly. I don’t think a dogmatic 50-state strategy is the way to go, but sometimes long-term investments pay off.
I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a video message from Bin Laden in the run into polling day. He released one on the weekend before the 2004 poll and that pretty much overshadowed everything else. IIRC it forced Kerry to join with Bush in condeming Bin Laden. Conventional wisdom has it that Bin Laden wanted Bush to be re-elected as because of Iraq he is such a divisive and polarising figure in the world that it would be harder for America to build up alliances in places like the Middle East and Pakistan. A Democrat in the White House won’t get people’s hackles up so much.
#128 One of my colleagues quipped:
Gordon Brown is a “super-hero”?! Bit like praising an architect whose skyscraper has collapsed for personally shovelling the rubble into the skip!
Please ignore 157 Old story dressed up.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7674122.stm
The Mandygate thing could yet turn out to have some legs…
122 - For myself, I’m thinking carefully about those “fancy odds”. I’ve seen nothing in John McCain’s performance recently that will contain a landslide.
Re new polls:
The question is? Is he the Messiah or just a very naughty boy?
It’s downhill from here. He is reading stories to his kids entitled, ‘How Daddy saved the world’.
If Cameron is ahead is it over for Brown and Labour?
Can it get better than this?
The media narrative over the bailout is just getting serious at the margins, but so far has not crept in. Any polling now is in the euphoria phase.
The news will get back to the real economy.
Every paper [possibly with the exception of the Mail - I never look] has commented on the Brown’s debt and regulation.
There are rumours they are going to change the basis on which they calculate it for the pre-budget report.
No one loves him so much they will not smell a Brown rat.
The by-election. Labour have put it back on the table. In these circumstances its now a must win for Labour. Its his own back yard.
Even if he gots the Scots backs up over RBS and HBoS, and it goes down because of that, the London MSM will not be able to interpret it other than bluntly.
160 I’m not a great Steve Bell fan but his cartoons yesterday and today illustrate the probable short lived nature of Superbrown.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/cartoon/2008/oct/15/gordonbrown-banking
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/cartoon/2008/oct/16/brown-banking-crisis
160.
“praising an architect whose skyscraper has collapsed for personally shovelling the rubble into the skip!”
Whereas Chamereon was the guy who drank at the golf club with and was funded by the builders who made the Brown building out of radioactively-contaminated cement mixed with too much sand.
158- I don’t argue that it is impossible for Democrats to win gubernatorial or senatorial races in either Oklahoma or Nebraska, but I do argue two things:
1) The Dems aren’t going to win the Senate race in either Oklahoma or Nebraska this year and
2) It is not realistic to suggest that spending money in those two states this year will set up either candidate for a future victory. Such a return on investment would be so highly speculative as to constitute reckless spending by the DNC. If either candidate has future success, it will be because of factors other than 2008 DNC spending.
And, if history is any guide (and it usually is), I would expect both Oklahoma and Nebraska to have become quite hostile environments for enterprising Democratic up and comers seeking statewide office.
Pretty shocking graph from Fraser Nelson of tax increases
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2396306/the-brown-bust-tax.thtml
155 I think that was more to do with LBJ’s psychology than his chances which given everything were still well up there alright. It’s been revealed recently that he very nearly didn’t run in 1964 because he felt he might not make it. Even in 1968 if you look at how close Humphrey got in the end despite the huge shock of entering the race late, RFK and everything. Johnson with incumbency and still the persona to win in the South would surely have been competitive against Nixon his equal in dirty tricks.
Another report on how the U.S. mainstream media ignores incidents of left-wing hate against McCain and/or Palin and highlights such incidents by the right against Obama in order to fraudulently argue that the GOP is the evil party. With media like this, it should come as little surprise that Obama will easily win this election.
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MjM4NjFjZTc5MGJmMzkzMDE1NWUzZDlkOTEzOWUxMzQ=&w=MQ==
Extraordinary day’s trading today. VIX peaked at over 80, never thought I would see the VIX over 60 let alone 80! Then sudden drop in many commodities, including sudden $50 drop in Gold. Looks to me like this unwinding of all the Lehman toxic options round options expiry date is going to cause one hell of a see-sawing market in the short term.
Good tipping Mike - your round next time! All the best; gs
There are two possibilities about the Canute stance on petrol prices.
It is a smart move demanding a cut because oil prices are bound to keep falling so prices will eventually fall and our Saviour can claim he has forced the oil sheiks and the retailers into retreat.
Or Brown central do not understand the effect of the pound’s plummet on commodities priced in pounds.
I suppose there is a third, that it is simple bull jumping on passing wagon.
Upshot is if prices go down prepare to puke at triumphant bellowing followed by excessive pain as a recessions becomes a depression.
If they don’t go down, prepare for Grumpy to reappear in the narrative.
169- I don’t know if Johnson could have won in 1968, but people were certainly ready to see him leave by then. His polling numbers were in the 70’s at the beginning of his presidency but were averaging in the low 40’s by 1968.
Great article below from my favourite financial blog (Mish Shedlock):
Not Enough Money in the World: The Real Monster in the Meltdown Closet
Written by Chris Floyd
Thursday, 16 October 2008
Their purpose was a market solution to make securitisation less risky; in fact, they make it more risky, as we are now witnessing. The collapse of Lehman Brothers - the refusal to bail it out has had cataclysmic consequences - means that [Lehman] can no longer honour $110bn of bonds, nor $440bn of CDSs it had written. On Friday, the dud contracts were auctioned, with buyers paying a paltry eight cents for every dollar. Put another way, there is now a $414bn hole which somebody holding these contracts has to honour. And if your head is spinning now, add the three bust Icelandic banks. They can no longer honour more than $50bn of bonds, nor a mind-boggling $200bn of CDSs….
While every bank tries to pass the toxic parcel on to somebody else, the system has to find the money. So will compensation for the near valueless contracts and thus now uninsured debt ultimately be made - and by whom? And because nobody knows - not the regulators, banks or governments - who owns the swaps and whether they are credit-worthy, nobody can answer the question. Maybe holders of insurance policies will get the cash due to them, but will that weaken somebody else? The result - panic.
This is the ultra-dangerous downward vortex in which the system is locked. It is why share prices are plummeting. As recession deepens, there will be defaults on securitised bonds and the potential collapse of more banks outside the G7 ring-fence. Nobody knows what proportion of the $55 trillion of credit default contracts that have actually been written will be honoured and who might bear losses running into trillions of dollars.
http://www.atlanticfreepress.com/content/view/5408/81/
I do hope none of you lot took part in this disgraceful melee?
http://tinyurl.com/3zw4p3
And if you did are you open for offers?
There’s an upside to the downside!!
172 and let us not forget that it is Conservative - well that buffoon shadow CofE Osborne’s policy that would at this time be putting up petrol duty hand over fist .
[84] - Yes! The BBC are culturally biased because they are all [to a large extent] London metropolitan types. Such people are perfectly capable of supporting the Tories, particularly when they are given a decent excuse to unleash their hatred of [rather than pity for] the working class.
On the day-to-day news they mostly take their lead from the newspapers, because they are mortally afraid of being the odd one out and saying something different to the rest of the media. That would be too controversial.
Latest ARSE (BUTT)/Daily FAB tracker :
McCain 43.8% .. Obama 50.4%
Note - Yesterday - M-43.1/O-50.6
…………………………..
ARSE (BUTT) is sponsored by the Daily Felines Adore Broxtowe.
There some surprise as Obama supporter gives birth to twins !!
http://snapshot.parade.com/main.php?g2_view=core.DownloadItem&g2_itemId=731224&g2_serialNumber=3
Donations to :
http://www.cats.org.uk/
173. Ironically, if Johnson had run in 1968 (and won), Humphrey would in all likelihood have become President (for a short time), since Johnson died just two days after the expiration of the 1969-73 term.
The pressures of the Presidency would surely have seen Johnson die in office, with Humphrey succeeding…
Thinking of what Mike did on Sunday, closing his Conservative ‘buy’ positions for a loss because the market was moving towards Labour, I did the same on Obama when McCain closed in on him. For a while it looked like nearly a 50-50 contest. I lost heavily, thinking McCain could win. I should have trusted my instincts and held my nerve. So, using this lesson, whilst I have lessened my exposure slightly (and for a loss) on my long Conservative positions, I am happy to be holding buys on seat markets which suggest a majority of around 40. I think the actual figure will be somewhere around 70. Mike’s actions sounded good on Monday and Tuesday as the markets continued to move towards Labour, but now we see them coming back to the Conservatives again - you can buy them at 346 seats. Mike, you must now be showing losses on your current positions. Do you wish you’d held your nerve, or are you happy with your actions? I do respect much of the advice you give on this web-site, but weren’t Sunday’s actions borne of the panic that has gripped the financial markets recently? Didn’t you make the same mistake as me when I closed down Obama positions which would have ultimately won me thousands?
170? It didn’t stop Bush II or Reagan. C’mon the media is the same as it has been for decades. The reality is the economy and the wreckage of a Party that W left him was just too much when the economy was the straw on the Camel’s back. Bush had an unparalleled opportunity to build a big tent in 2002. At the time people were even speculating he could win NY! But he chose to build the base and not the Party. McCain has reaped the consequences. The only way Bush has been transformational is the same way Hoover was.
Brown denies election possibility, Brogan repeats this, Palmer repeats this.
That is it then it is on.
One last test though. Roger is a snap election on the cards?
[176] - Although the practical implementation would have been difficult to say the least, I can at least see the theoretical attraction of Osbourne’s proposal. A stabler petrol price has its attractions, and the idea was always to raise the same amount of tax, but to keep the peaks and troughs of the price closer together.
176 - Do remind me, at what level did George Osborne set the after tax petrol price?
173 IIRC W’s ratings in 2004 were not too dissimilar and he pulled through when everyon was saying if he was below 50% he was in trouble. Johnson v Nixon would have been fascinating almost certainly the dirtiest contest in the known world at any point.
181- The fact that the warped media lens through which hapless viewers see the world was not enough to stop Bush or Reagan does not mean that what they do is honest or a good thing for democracy. Did Bush screw up? Yes. Does that legitimize the media’s actions? No.
I do wonder if headlines like this is the Mail and similar stuff in the broadcast media is whistling to keep their own spirits up, or setting up SoW for a mighty fall:
Hope for new mortgage deals as banks respond to Brown’s £37billion rescue package
182, I don’t think there will be one, but I imagine if there were something bubbling Labour wouldn’t do a repeat of last year’s catastrophe and actually keep it secret.
167 - Spending on OK and NE would be speculative, but the Democrats can afford to be speculative this cycle. Also, I wouldn’t be so quick to rule out a shock in one of these races. When right track is in single figures and the economy is tanking even red states may give Democrats a second look. The chances of the Democrats winning either seat is low (probably 10%) but not non-existent.
Do you agree that Kentucky is a potential (if outside) chance for a Democratic pick-up?
http://tinyurl.com/4z6gqf
“”Joe the Plumber” isn’t a plumber — at least not a licensed one, or a registered one.
Mr. Wurzelbacher said he works under Al Newell’s license, but according to Ohio building regulations, he must maintain his own license to do plumbing work.
He is also not registered to operate as a plumber in Ohio, which means he’s not a plumber.”
“Linda Howe, executive director of the Lucas County Board of Elections, said a Samuel Joseph Worzelbacher, whose address and age match Joe the Plumber’s, registered in Lucas County on Sept. 10, 1992. He voted in his first primary on March 4 of this year, registering as a Republican.”
“In December, 2007, the Ohio Department of Taxation placed a lien against him because $1,183 in personal property taxes had not been paid, but there has been no action in the case since it was filed.”
That the McCain campaign lacks even the most basic checking system to ensure they stop making these sort of errors is pretty incredible.
185- Here are Gallup’s numbers for Bush (job approval) around the period of the 2004 campaign. You see that he was bobbing right around 50% approval:
10/29-31/04 48% approve 47% disapprove 5% unsure 2,014 polled
10/22-24/04 51% 46% 3% 1,538
10/14-16/08 51% 47% 2% 1,013
10/11-14/04 48% 49% 3%
10/9-10/04 47% 49% 4% 1,015
10/1-3/04 50% 48% 2% 1,016
9/24-26/04 54% 44% 2% 1,006
9/13-15/04 52% 45% 3% 1,022
9/3-5/04 52% 46% 2% 1,018
Can someone post the spreadbetting prices on ECVs very quickly please?
An indication of the favourite bracket for Dem Senate seats (inc or exc Lieberman and Sanders?) would be grand too…
Congrats once again to Mike and all who filled their boots!!
186 I’m just saying that the Media in the end was not the cause of what is happening to McCain. If they were as powerful as they like to think no Republican would have been elected for fifty years. Their impact is very much only at the margins.
190- Lynch him!
The problem for Brown now is his own history of electoral dissimulation and hype.
The more he says there won’t be an election, the more people will think there will be, based on the experience last year.
The less he says about it, the more people will think it is going to happen as anoraks start to assume he has learnt his lesson and is keeping his powder dry.
189- I think the Dems should go after McConnell if only to give him a scare and keep him tied down at home, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he’s defeated. I’d put his chances of losing his seat somewhere between 10% and 20%.
186 - The way you talk about ‘the media’ you would think it thought with one mind and spoke with one voice. The reality is that the media is made up of thousands of journalists with different agendas. There will be general biases (likely more metropolitan for example) but the public generally are aware of these (numerous polls attest to this).
The US has one of the most pluralist medias in the world. People get their news from numerous sources. With the internet this is the case even more. Your argument seems to suggest Americans are little more than cattle waiting to be shepherded by the media.
ConHom has an interesting article about a Crisis in Tamworth?.
“The Government’s announcement of an “Emergency Team” to be sent into Conservative-run Tamworth Council over Icelandic investments appears to be under this category.
Cllr Jeremy Oates, leader of Tamworth Council says:
“Tamworth Borough Council is not in any immediate financial difficultly, and this years budget will remain unchanged. There is no threat to services or wages at Tamworth Borough Council. The only help we require is to get the investment back.
“I am shocked about hearing an emergency team is being sent to us. We neither asked for or need one.
“This looks like more of an attempt to shift attention onto local councils and away from government. This government should be sending in people to help us get our investments back but they are not doing this. They have offered us no help to recover the Tamworth tax payers money from Iceland.
“What makes this more surprising is government auditors have rated us three out of four stars for financial control for the last three years. This government has continually said we are very good at handling public money, what has changed in the last two months?”
One hour twenty after the Mail headline at 187 this appeared in the same paper online:
Fresh blow for homeowners as Lloyds becomes latest bank to INCREASE cost of its tracker mortgages
Are they trying to send people demented?
193- I don’t agree that the impact of the media is only at the margins, and I don’t think even the media believe that either in their heart of hearts. Look at how apoplectic the western media were about what they saw as Berlusconi’s domination of Italian media both during his previous term as PM of Italy and again in the most recent elections. Were they so angry because of something they believed to be of no consequence? No, they themselves believe that they have an enormous impact on the electorate, particularly by maintaining a narrative over time, and they’re right. They were so angry about Berlusconi because they believed he was successfully swaying voters with right-wing propaganda they way they see themselves as swaying voters with left-wing propaganda.
re 176 yes and restoring some stability to petrol prices - which can only be a good thing.
194 - Using people like this is asking for trouble, especially if they can be linked to one party or other. Remember ‘Jennifer’s Ear’.
He also owes over $1000 in back taxes, he won’t be happy when the authorities get onto him because they’ll look weak if they don’t recover them pronto.
Comment on the Herald :
‘Gordon Brown has said that he will be concentrating on the big issues in the Glenrothes by-election. He is planing to sell them outside the Boots branch in town.’
here’s the full picture of what mccain was doing in that photo
http://i256.photobucket.com/albums/hh164/mm21_bucket/mccaineatsicecream.jpg
203, be terrible if an angry mob egged him, wouldn’t it?
I hope he loses. Not just because of the political consequences, but, far more importantly, we might just get a new Downfall spoof.
176 Its Lib Dem policy apparently to fight to protect the BoE independence or sorry it isn’t, its Lib Dem policy to put the MPC under the Chancellor’s orders (the first one was their September Economic Policy and it’s October now, what will November bring…)
187, 199 Quite extraordinary!
re 187/199 First Direct (i.e. HSBC) reduced my mortgage rate by 0.5% this week. I feel reasonably safe as well because I having an offset mortgage have no assets in cash whatsoever.
192 - On intrade the favourite band for Dem Senate seats is 56 - 60 excluding the indies (71 v 11.5 (51-55) and 11 (61-65))
197- Like Hollywood types, journalists tend (note “tend”) to succumb to a herd mentality and groupthink. There are lone wolves who diverge from the pack, some of whom find islands of solace at places like Fox News or National Review, for example, and yet others who just keep their mouths shut and try to do their jobs, but the evidence suggests that the vast majority go with the herd.
ConHom also reporting that Tories call for transparency on Iceland deposits crisis.
“Shadow local government minister Bob Beill MP has written today to John Healey MP calling for an end to the leaking of information about councils’ exposure in a “piecemeal” and “speculative manner”.”
206, I thought they were abstaining from taking a stance, and wanted a referendum on whether or not the FSA should be split up?
192 - On Spreadfair the Democrats are 333 - 347 and the Republicans are 188 - 202
209- That’s right on target for what I predicted here months ago: 58 Dem Senate seats.
195. A 2008 election is 50/1 with ladbrokes. Very few punters seem to be taking the slightest notice of any speculation.
212 Is that perhaps the November policy?
210 - This may be true, but how does ‘the herd’ decide which direction to go in? And how does it decide to reverse course? The answer is that it doesn’t. This cycle has seen conventional wisdom change numerous times. Mostly that is the media readjusting to the way the public has acted.
See the aftermath of the debates. After every one most of the pundits in the media have called them draws or McCain wins on points. The polls have then gone to Obama and the media has readjusted its view accordingly. In other words cause and effect are working in the opposite direction.
The lack of attention to Ayers and ACORN may not be a media conspiracy but because the public just don’t care.
209 - Thanks Kieran.
217- It’s hard for the public to care about something they don’t know anything about.
214 - You predicted 58 without Sanders and Lieberman?
170. By Heavens, you really are desperate.
220- With Sanders and Lieberman. If Lieberman leaves the caucus, then 57.
221- Desperate for what?
C&G don’t appear to be cutting the rate. What the hell is the point if all they are doing is taking the chance to make a bigger profit?
Can someone in parliament get onto this, they need to shamed in a very high profile way? Otherwise there will need to be a massive interest rate cut to help get things moving.
219 - The CNN poll suggests otherwise. They asked if Obama’s connection to Ayres mattered. These were the results:
Not at all 51
Not much 11
Somewhat 14
A Great Deal 23
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/15/debate.poll/index.html
180. Too soon to call time on Mike’s strategy, but I do recall suggesting that he might find he was chasing after a loss and might find he got whipped on the rebound as well…
215 On reflection, the thought of Gordo being bounced into a GE which he would lose .. odds ought to be 5000-1. Gordo does NOT do Courage, never has, never will.WRT his book, as Sir Humphrey Appelby famously noted in Yes Prime Minister….. Always get rid of the most difficult bit in the title….
224. A very big rate cut is coming. But that will probably help the banks even more as it will steepen the yield curve allowing them to borrow short at low rates and lend long at a fat margin.
228
How does /will it affect the FTSE
228, the MPC will definitely go for a cutting trend, not so sure they’ll go for another 50 basis points or more. They tend to move more cautiously and slowly than the Fed.
225- But if you read the entire article, it becomes clear that those who were polled bascially think McCain is the devil. My guess is that it was predominantly Obama supporters who watched the debate, probably driven by Democratic excitement at their expected victory, while Republicans stayed away.
224 Banks/BS need as much revenue as they can to get their assets built up to survive the downturn and further shocks.
another attempt to explain that mccain photo
http://i256.photobucket.com/albums/hh164/mm21_bucket/mccainphotoexplanation.jpg
Just updated my ECV tracker to include more recent polls. It’s now showing:
Obama - 350 (+1 since yesterday)
McCain - 188 (-1 since yesterday)
There’s been movement in the swing states both ways but overall it’s just better for the guy from Illinois. McCain seems to be holding better in the swing states than the safe ones, some of which have seen fairly marked shifts to Obama.
224 etc. The banks / BS’s also have to fund their lending through the money borrowed from either the money markets or depositors. The LIBOR is dropping only slowly and there is a limit to how low savings rates can go - and as Ted rightly points out at [232], allowing their deposit base to erode further by reducing the incentive for people to safe with them carries risks of its own.
Tennis tip, about to start: Karlovic to win 2-0, odds 9.2 at betfair.
Karlovic is around 4.0 to win in normal time, but against this quality of opponent his chances are mostly contained in winning two quick tiebreak sets. Once Djokovic gets a read on the ridiculous freakshow giant Croat’s serve, the match is over.
On 538.com, their spikey chart, which I confess, I still don’t fully understand, is now showing Obama’s range of ECVs as being far more spread out, over a range of 330-400 votes - presumably this is because a number of states have suddenly become more iffy, both in terms of him winning/losing them as the case may be? Just a couple of days ago the chart seemed much more concentrated on him winning between 350-380 seats.
I guess this means that punting on the ECV markets is now more difficult, but that there could be better value at the extremes of his support range.
208.
HSBC reduced the interest rate on my current account, from 0.1% to 0.0%, it was marketed to me as an improvement in service, for which i should be grateful.
I am glad, as they reminded me what sort of organisation they are and I am off somewhere else.
Door, stable, shut, after horse bolted…..
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/16/creditcrunch-marketturmoil
235. Eroding the deposit base isn’t a serious concern.
New Rasmussen poll for New York State :
McCain 37% .. Obama 57%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/new_york/election_2008_new_york_presidential_election
236, I really like watching Karlovic play. It’s like a game of tennis from a fantasy novel, with a human against a giant from the mountains:p
239.”In an interview with the Guardian, Turner warned that a new cadre of higher-paid regulators would ask tougher questions about the health of financial institutions in the wake of the credit crisis.
Turner admitted that the Financial Service Authority had tried to regulate Britain’s big banks “on the cheap” in the past but that a new and more stringent regime was now on the way.
“There will be more people asking more questions and getting more information than we were getting before”, Turners said. “There is no doubt the touch will be heavier. We have to make sure it is intelligent and focused on where the risks really are.”
So, all we need is a cadre of *highly paid* officials at the FSA, and more of them, and this will be sorted?
239. This Lord Adair looks like he’ll keel over and die before he can affect anything.
238 Think about it. When you have been with HSBC, most of the others seem incompetent.
Watchdog did a piece on banks. Santander were dreadful. I know someone who works there. Says its a nightmare.
HSBC was the very clear winner of the BBC survey.
237. 538 does a run of 1000 computer simulations each day using the model they come up with and recent poll numbers. The spiky chart shows how many times (on the y axis) a particular number of electoral votes were won by Obama (the x axis).
238 Gaz - I wouldn’t be in too big a hurry to leave HSBC if I were you, but like you I hate such ridiculous attempts to dress up changes as improvements, when in fact the reverse is patently the case, i.e. treating customers as idiots.
Does anyone else remember the late, great Patrick Hutber, a giant of his day, when Business Editor of The Sunday Telegraph, who encapsulated just this concept in “Hutber’s Law”, i.e. IIRC, Improvement really means Deterioration.
Panorama on BBC 1 is very interesting - the government is getting a pasting.
“No more boom and bust?!”
238 Not to Iceland I hope.
210. Yes, Bill O’Reilly is clearly an intelligent, independent thinker, whereas Wolf Blitzer is a herd-following partisan.
Come on!
239 - I am always wary of people who say that there is no chance of something occurring. Reminds me of those who said that a certain ship would always stay above the waves. It is now rusting at the bottom of the Atlantic!
246 Thanks Socrates, I’ve got that and I believe the number is actually 10,000 “simulations” (this is where I start getting lost), but am I right as regards the sudden widening of ECV numbers?
248 - great, they’ve had Stephen Timms on from the Treasury and, er, Will Hutton to try and give an impartial view of the situation.
253, Hutton was on that Newsnight trial a few nights ago. Irritating bloke. Quite like Stelzer though when he mocked the BBC’s choice of American footage.
248 - watched the first 10 minutes of it before switching back to the snooker. Alan Sugar acting all sanctimonious - I just can’t stand that man, ever since he coseyed up to Gordon, have always found him a somewhat slimy character. Typical Beeb production with all the ‘emotion stuff’ and no hard analysis. Didn’t even want to bother with Ros Altman or Peston - I’d just end up screaming at the TV and going mad!
253 - good job that I didn’t get to them either then!! Double screams avoided!
An assassins bullet would change everything. Paddypower are jumping the gun.
238 - 1st direct (part of HSBC group) sent me a letter today to say they were removing my overdraft. Fortunately couldn’t care less as I’ve never used it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/3210414/Peter-Mandelson-met-Russian-oligarch-twice-for-dinner.html
The plot thickens… Didn’t Wegg-Prosser used to work for the Guardian ?
Unconfirmed Rasmussen state polls for :
Oregon M-41/O-54 .. Connecticutt M-39/O-56 .. Ohio M-49/O-49.
252. Yeah seems so, but it might simply account for the pollsters with different leans polling different states. Previously the lower limit had been heading upwards, so I guess its a bit of a reversion for the mean. The upper limit however had been bunching up at around 370. I guess it reached a point where it finally broke through in a couple of big states (I’m guessing Georgia, maybe Mississippi).
252. The increased dispersion of the forecast distribution could be due to
i) increased uncertainty in the polls
ii) a higher proportion of the larger ECV states becoming marginal
or a combination of both. I wouldn’t worry, PfP.
252. On the up side, 350 should be relatively easy for him and it’s not too hard to go from there to 370 or 380. It will take a lot for Obama to get to 400 but it’s not completely out of the question. He’d have to win everywhere where he’s already leading or close, plus probably Georgia and somewhere else.
On the RCP averages, Obama has a 7%+ lead in states worth 277 ECVs. Were McCain to rally in the swing states he could easily keep Obama down to 300 and possibly less. That said, 277 is a pretty important number.
New DFM Research poll for North Dakota :
McCain 41% .. Obama 44%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/10/16/142014/02/937/632664
262. Or also just statistical randomness. If you run the same model with the same input numbers in several sets of 1000, sometimes you will get a set with a spread thats closer together, and sometimes you’ll get a set with a spread thats further away.
Am I right?
DOW UP 4.68%
263. I think the main issue is that we just don’t know how important turnout operations are. We’ve never had this much of a gap. Historically you had decent ones on both sides, or a decent one on one side and a poor one on the other. In 2000 and 2004 we had a good one for the Dems and an excellent one for 2008. This year we have a really, really excellent one on one side and a truly appaling one on the other. We have no idea whether this could make a three point or a nine point difference in the right states.
Jack@264 : pretty devastating that, given Obama had given up campaigning there, and now he’s +2 and +3 up in the last polls.
Bet365 have North Dakota at 3.5 btw
267 - Also there are a number of Southern states that come into play if Black turnout exceeds expectations. Georgia is the most obvious example but even Mississippi, Louisiana and South Carolina are possible. Obama has to do better among white voters - but the economic situation may allow that.
266 - what about the FTSE today Gabble?!!
247. Yes I do and Hutber Law is very useful. I read somewhere several months ago that the Government was driving the theory of running an economy on borrowing to destruction. That can now certainly been seen as a pre-emptive view.
The real problem at the present time is that the Government in the last budget failed to start preparations for the downturn. Even now is not prepared to recognise the problems. The current frozen housing market, rising unemployment, ballooning Government debt and static growth moving into recession has little to do with the recent banking crisis. That will come later and on top of an already difficult downturn.
Darling was right when he said the economic prospects were the worse for 60 years. Trouble is he has been Chancellor for over a year and did little to address the underlying weaknesses before the banking crisis added to the problems.
North Dakota available at 11/4 at centrebet
268 Andrew. Obama largely pulled from the state after the Palin pick appeared to close down the state. However as the shine has rubbed off from Palin the state appears to have come back in play.
I understand that Obama has taken media spends in the state and is also moving some resourses back to Georgia and also in West Virginia and Kansas.
You are wasting your breath Gabbe. You lost whatever small credibility you had yesterday with your feeble excuses about only reporting the market when it closed as a reason to avoid accepting that the shares had taken a bad day.
I tend to share the belief of many that the day to day fluctuations - down as well as up - are pretty meaningless in the round since each provides its own risks and opportunities. But your feeble attempts to make political capital out of gains whilst ignoring losses simply confirms that you pathalogocally incapable of being either logical or truthful about anything you say.
Lord Adairs admission today that the FSA had tried to do regulation on the cheap, had been fearful of acting despite its own recognition of the risks does undermine the Gordon Brown narrative. Why was regulation weak? who was responsible for putting it right? why weren’t the FSA able to put in place the regulations and regime Adair claims they wanted - the only place such decisions could be made was the Treasury.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/oct/16/creditcrunch-marketturmoil
266. And thats due to the Brown plan is it?
You still failed to answer the question posed about you consider a timeline for proving the bailout plan was successful, a week?
Its not a difficult question for someone who seems to speak with such unquestioning certainty.
265. Not really. The whole point of the sample being 10,000 is to minimize those fluctuations. At that level the effect of randomness will be minuscule…
It’s most likely ii) @262…
thrown in with a bit of i), due to
a) slightly smaller state poll sizes today, or
b) a slightly higher proportion of Nate’s down-weighted polls going into the mix.
272: I’d heard that rumour yes - any idea if the ads have started yet?
Makes me think Montana might be worth a nibble too.
Gabble. Selective use of stats eh Gabble, SO Gordo… I wonder if you bet, If you do, you must be skint.
Sorry if this has been answered upthread, but when does “swearing in” take place for the next POTUS?
re 281. It always takes place on January 20th
281. January 20th
275 - all we require now is an Ave It / Gabble contest on reporting stock market declines / advances! I think I know whose money I would be on to win that one!!
282 Thanks. That’s when Centrebet pay out. Hope nothing untoward happens to him in the meantime.
271. Darling is hopeless but the real blame lies with Brown and also Blair for their foolish spending splurge in Labour’s second term. The public finances were in a fantastic condition in 1999-2000 but Labour squandered the position, apparently really believing they had abolished the economic cycle. Staggering irresponsibility.
248
Not really.
BBC throws some early punches to gain credibility then throws the match later.
It all turned out to be everybody’s fault.
It’s as predictable as all-in wrestling.
285. Stories of assasinations and so on are overplayed. He’s more chance of fallinmg down the stairs.
Some people just love drama, Sparky but the facts are if he was under such a big threat his security would be a lot more visible, heavy and close.
On topic:
Since we’re congratulating each other, thanks to whoever it was last March who tipped Biden for VP.
I’m on at 40/1. Unfortunately VCbet have not yet paid out!
Rob
Generic question: when betting, and the outcome is not very likely but maybe in the 50-50 band or 60-40, do people try and lay for a guaranteed smaller profit, or leave it and cross their fingers for an ucnertain but larger profit?
I just about always lay.
Thanks to another great tip from Andrew, I’m all green for the Karlovic match, laid at 3 for a few quid if he doesn’t win 2-0 and twice as much if he does.
Off Topic - just been reminded its 21 years today since the Great Storm - ah we had real weather in the old days didn’t we.
Weird got a comment in moderation and no idea why. Gist is a query as to whether people prefer to try and lay for a smaller guaranteed profit or cross their fingers for a larger uncertain one if the odds seem to be about equal or maybe 60/40.
petrol at under £1 litre causing a lot of positive comment in pubs and clubs up and down the Principality.
Could this be the turning point for GB?
288 History’s not my strongest suit, but even I can think of quite a few noted US politicians who’ve met a bullet…. but you’re right, he’s almost there, and it’s extremely unlikely. I would be nice to have it this side of new year mind. But then January’s a long month, so it’ll be nice then too. Touch wood.
292
Evidence…?? Who is talking about it, in which pubs??? its not under a quid where I am, its 1.079 and diesel is 1.179
282 - It gets moved if the 20th of Jan is a Sunday I believe.
292 Obviously you’ve been in them all and are a touch p1ssed.
Near topic. Now would be a good time for bookies to open books for 2012. Any chance of those with contacts in the industry putting the case?
Even before next month’s election, the contest for the GOP nomination looks fairly open. McCain is about 8/1 to win this time so ought to be 12/1+ for 2012; that leaves a lot of other options and potentially another Smithson classic.
For the Democrats, it’s obviously much clearer, and Obama would have to start odds-on - probably about 1/3 now? - but two Democrat presidents (Truman and Johnson) refused to run a second time when domestic difficulties made it look like they’d lose the nomination.
179- Jack W- what a lovely, cuddly, cat.
292. No because he said the rise was due to global demand. He can hardly claim credit for falls - Sorry phrased that badly no one will believe him! He will claim credit because he is a tool!
294. Petrol was 99.9p at Asda in South Bradford this afternoon. I think diesel was 107.9p.
Falls in fuel and energy prices will help ease the pain that some felt with the rises earlier in the year, but that’s likely to be offset now by an increasing fear of unemployment.
300, he called for a fall, and it happened. I believe right now he’s calling for the sun to rise sometime in the morning, and for leaves to start falling from trees.
299
Gordo = King Canute
His words have as much force as trying to tell the waves to go back…
With apologies to Ave it 08
289- ukPaul- gave the Biden link here
Supermarket fuel… firstly its poor quality by comparison, from what I have read ?? Secondly, supermarkets will adjust their prices within store to compensate. There is NO SUCH THING as a free lunch.
Petrol price has, I suspect an inordinate effect on how many people feel about themselves and their finances.Just wondering if this will have an effect on the polls.
Politics home says the Daily Labourgrah says Interest rates could be cut to 1%.. And what happens if that doesnt work?
http://www.politicshome.com/landing.aspx#3859
The election may still be close according to, er, a Fox News blogger:
http://foxforum.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/10/16/frj_1016/
Does he have a point? It’s a bit “uncool” not to support Obama and perhaps McCain supporters are being coy about their true voting intentions.
If we think that 99.9p constitues ‘cheap’ fuel then we really collectively losing the plot. It’s still expensive.
305
Valleyboy, A LOT of people fill up at the supermarket. If their petrol goes down a couple of quid and their shopping goes up a couple of quid., will they feel better off???. I doubt it.
Wait till they start getting their gas and electricity bills. Then we will see how well off people feel.
I think the idea that Gordon Brown is a shameless opportunist will catch on fast again, particularly once his economic rescue package is proven to have gone tits up and he goes to ground again.
309. Yes I will have to light the candals soon as it is cold tonight!
295. No. The inauguration ceremony has no constitutional significance. The President becomes the President on the day and time specified in the Constitution, or (by succession) the instant his predecessor dies or resigns.
You may be thinking of Zachary Taylor, who put off his inauguration for a day in 1849, because it fell on a Sunday, leading to the urban myth that http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Rice_Atchison
was President for a day…
304. Supermarket fuel comes from exactly the same source as non-supermarket fuel so I’m not sure how the quality could be inferior. I’ll start to worry when I spot Tesco own-brand refineries.
307. If that was so, thats an awful lot of liars and people hiding.
313 I read that at Honest John in the Labourgrah IIRC. Its the same fuel, its what thee petrol companies do it. I will have a look at his site and report back…..
310 I noticed last night Christine Lagarde (or whatever her name is) saying the rescue plan was formulated in the ‘G4′ meeting of the previous weekend. Its a Sarkozy/Merkel/Brown/Berlusconi plan - the 4 of them are as thick as thieves in it.
I think it was patently obvious as soon as one days decent rises in the world’s stockmarkets was hailed as a major success for ‘plan Brown’ that we were in for trouble - LIBOR is coming down sure but its still out of sync and there is clear weakness - even todays rise in the Dow masks wild swings and a record volatility.
Unfortunately when the money markets are fundamentally broken, its a long and dnagerous process to get them working again.
The banks are massively undervalued and yet there are not bids for a takeover of RBS….. fundamental and disturbing market weakness.
The Rasmussen state polls at 261 are confirmed :
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/
316 fundamental is word of the day - fact
314. According to “What Car” it’s the same stuff:
http://www.whatcar.co.uk/news-special-report.aspx?NA=215240&EL=3125465
“According to the Petrol Retailers Association, there is no difference between the standard petrol you buy from supermarkets or franchised petrol stations. In most cases the petrol and diesel is even produced at the same refinery and delivered in the same trucks.”
I tend to avoid own-brand stuff anyway as I’m a bit of a snob. I wouldn’t be seen dead driving around with Sainsbury’s fuel in my tank.
Alastair Campbell hitting the nail on the head over Cameron’s conference speech:
“There was also a nastiness there that will have surprised a few people - all that rubbish about teachers refusing to put plasters on kids’ knees and soldiers not being respected in their communities. What complete cock.”
Having picked Missouri yesterday at 12-1 (now 14-1), I’ve completed my trio of states in Ladbrokes’ McCain Firewall Finder (aka Stop at a winner), by picking Montana at 14-1 and North Dakota at 16-1.
Downandout in 273 above referred to Centrebet’s offer of 11/4 against Obama winning in North Dakota - this price has now been trimmed to 5/2 by the same bookie, which are still standout odds, especially in light of the latest polls showing Obama ahead. Another one or two like that and he’ll be odds on.
7-Eleven in America has been running a thing for the election. Choose a blue coffee cup for Obama and a red one for McCain
http://www.7-election.com/
320. Heres a question for you at 277.
320 Campbell is indeed a complete cock.
324 - Hear, hear, and anyway who is he to talk about nastiness?
319 I might have been thinking about the additives rather than the fuel per se.. I am sure Honest John said you got better MPG from Optimax than supermarket fuel and it was better for your engine, but I cannot find the report. I also think he said overall it was better to buy optimax than the ordinary supermarket fuel. Can anyone confirm svp.
320 Campbell talking about nastiness …… I love it!
320 Dyed in Some Wool Somewhere hitting the nail on the head about Cameron’s conference speech ‘I enjoyed it, it was good.’
313 My previous car had expensive tastes and didn’t like supermarket petrol, the engine ran roughly and pinked, lost power. Filled up at Shell/Esso and symptoms disappeared. Either Tesco have added something or my current car is more forgiving.
Brown has overplayed his hand according to Iain Martin.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/iain_martin/blog/2008/10/16/brown_has_overplayed_his_hand
313 Most companies put various additives into their petrol. Which? just did an article on this which had some interesting conclusions. Additives are normally “cleaners” to help make engine run better or not. Main problem tends to be in variations in Octane rating which can depend on a number of factors. Diesel also varies particularly as you head into winter when additives are used to stop it freezing.
Strangely Tesco petrol had a higher octane than Shell or Esso so was likely to produce very slightly more power.
Morris@2.91: Did you take it?
320. How great to see Ali Campbells anguish as he sees the New Labour project being flushed down the toilet. He knows the games up.
I have always thought that the widespread practice of paying out on bets before the actual event being wagered on was self-evidently ludicrous and this is a particularly preposterous example of it. Whatever happened to “a week is a long in poiltics?” There are still three to go before this election.
320. Actually it is not. Im a trained lifeguard and can NOT place a plaster on someones knee. In order for me to do so, i MUST have a qualified first aider supervising me and fill out a two page accident report. Trying living in the real world (campbell and i assume yourself do not) and you’ll understand how pathetic and time consuming health and safety has become.
And another one for you: We are no longer allowed to give out armbands to non-swimmers. They have to buy them or go without which is far more dangerous but hey, health and safety and the government know best! This country is a joke.
322. Interesting result in Utah until I twigged that Mormons don’t drink coffee!
334 - Think of it as advertising spend.
330
Can you print the text please, I cannot get it to load…
[278] - Also you have to bear in mind that Nate does the odd bit of tinkering to the model. This had a big effect a few days ago and it might be that his model has a tendency to spread over time.
Juvenile but amusing:
http://www.palinaspresident.us/
MTF, desperate for a bad news fix, denounces cheap supermarket petrol - lol! It’s a conspiracy by the Elders of Labour to ruin your engine, MTF
The Optimax type fuels have octane of over 99 compared to 95 for normal fuels. If you have a high spec really modern engine it will benefit from this type of fuel for power and mpg but will cost more to run. Older engines will not really benefit.
Components added can include detergents, dispersants, deposit reducers and/or friction reducers. Some diesel super fuels may contain antifoaming agents, and ignition and combustion improvers. They may also contain lubricants to reduce fuel-pump wear.
These are expensive chemistries, so the main difference between normal and super fuels will be the effectiveness and technology level of the additives, and their [levels of] concentration.
329 - yep. Supermarket petrol is a false economy. Would far rather pay 1p a litre more and have decent branded petrol with additives in that protect the engine.
338 - Here you go!
ames Kirkup noted that at his Downing Street press conference the PM’s demeanour was noticeably different from that of the last few days. He’s started trying to avoid looking as though he is enjoying himself.
The PM has been grinning and glorying in his alleged genius in recent days and has been feted by world leaders whose handling of the over inflated credit bubble was nearly as poor as his. Only George Bush has more to answer for and he’ll be blaming Alan Greenspan (AKA Gordon Brown’s best friend).
But now it appears that his stroke of genius with his bail-out was not quite as clearly a “good thing” as was thought. Those who view it as a calamity will start saying so much more loudly. And the FTSE was off 5% again today, reminding Britons that the carnage in the real economy is hitting home much earlier than thought.
Sitting watching the BBC’s Panorama special on the financial and economic crisis, Britain in the Red, the scale of what is unfolding was made real in human terms. This was prime time rather than minority interest Newsnight and millions will have been watching.
It will have made truly terrible viewing for the PM if he was watching. The FSA and the government’s abject regulatory failure was laid out in clear terms in a fantastic piece of popular journalism.
The government minister put up was demolished by host Jeremy Vine.
Then families hit by the recession explained the impact on their lives on film and by email - overdrafts being withdrawn, debts called in, jobs lost. I’ve worked hard for 30 years to build up two small businesses, said one woman by email, and I think I’m going lose it all: “who will bail me out?”
This is happening now, there will be much more of it and why these people are likely to be grateful to Gordon Brown is beyond me.
320-Yes Gabble the same “cock” that forced Dr David Kelly to go and kill himself in a field.
How dare he talk about nasty.
Campbell is one of the most destructive, self centered, arrogant people walking this planet today.
[290] - 21 years since the big storm? Coincidentally I was telling my daughter about it this evening, as she was extolling the virtues of a proper storm. She wants to see some trees uprooted…
330. Heres the thing, the Brown Comeback always was a load of rubbish, IMO. What has happened is that Labour has clawed back some of its core vote, hence the small upwards movement in the polls (probably the core vote has come back because Labour has actually done something socialist like nationalise the banks) Those great spinners Mandy, Ali and Dolly (the three stooges) put it out to the media that this small shift in the polls was a sign that the greatful masses were flocking back to Father Of The Nation Gord after Gords stunning achievement of coming up with a plan to spend tens of billions of tax payers money attempting to rectify the disaster he had helped create.
The media, always a sucker for Campells nonsense lapped it up and reported it as fact and Labour MP’s, always looking for something, anything, to turn up, seized on it in an attempt to cheer themselves up.
However, as we found with the Iraq debacle, just because Alistair Campbell says something is true doesn’t mean it is. As Ian Martin points out, why would people losing their jobs, their buisness’s, their homes and their generally comfortable lives suddenly decide to turn to Brown, the man who promised them no more boom and bust? It makes never made any sense and its not going to happen!
341
Nick,will you and your colleagues be following the example of Irish politicians and taking a 10% salary cut?
346
I was without power for 17 days in the 87 storm, Had to go to Derby to buy a Generator, there was not one to be found in the South of England. Harrington Generators IIRC in Matlock if they are still there. I also remember stories about sheep being blown onto rooftops. It was blooming awful where I was, had to travel miles to friends to have a bath as the water went off too.
345 Kelly - of course there are those who are convinced he didn’t kill himself.
346 - I remember that, it nearly ruined my birthday party as a tree almost destroyed the hall. My parents were relieved it didn’t as they had a magician booked etc.
Yeah he’s won. Kerry I mean.
349 Would that be all the way to Matlock Bath MTF?
Did Gabble forget to tell us about the FTSE?
NEWSFLASH
It is rumoured:
Joe the plumber allegedly is not a registered plumber
He is allegedly behind in his taxes
Source: BBC News
Tories (remember them?) on the slide in Wales.
There is absolutely no enthusiasm for them.
353 - lol. I’ve already prompted him once! Time to come out of the rabbit hutch again Gabble?
349 My abiding memory is leaving home at 5:15 to catch the first train, thinking it was very windy, wondering why I couldn’t get my normal radio station on the car radio, finding first route blocked, then alternative, then alternative alternative and so on till I decided to return home and found trees across the roads I’d just driven on. Drove through fields around them & got home to no power, trees down in garden but unlike yourself I had a genny in the garage!
A friend who was office manager for a now defunct bank (a certain trader in Singapore did them in) drove all the way to London through the storm, through fields where necessary - got there and the City was shut anyway so after checking the building he drove home - altogether he spent over 12 hours driving.
Ah, Denis has run out of things to say - he’s cycled back to the “enthusiasm” line, which continues to utterly miss the point.
Wow; Grieve goes for the juggular over the economy. Hoon looking an idiot.
Mike. Regarding the last thread re bias in the BBC, there is a huge difference between requiring a national broadcaster, at time of war, to avoid anything that will assist the enemy and putting pressure on for political advantage. The leader of any party would do what Thatcher did- for a start, our troops’ lives were at stake. In a democracy, what the BBC is doing is totally unacceptable, and the same would apply if the Conservatives were in office.
354. Oh, dear. Nothing going right for McCain!
Clare Short on the attack too; pitty she is standing down next time.
And there is absolutely no enthusiasm for Gabble’s Labourite logorrhoea either.
Those PBers, i.e. a surprising majority, who in yesterday’s poll believed that Obama would garner fewer than 330 ECVs, may be attracted by Ladbrokes “generous” odds as follows:
270-289 …..12/1
290-309 …..10/1
310-329 …..8/1
Therefore by backing each of the above 3 options, one can cover a spread of 60 ECVs, whilst obtaining effective odds of 3.33/1
Personally, I’d keep my money in my pocket, Shadsy isn’t renowned for throwing the folding stuff around.
Rather telling by contrast is the fact that Ladbrokes have chopped the odds on Obama scoring 370 or more ECVs from 2/1 to a meagre looking 5/4.
re 284 the cheapest anywhere I’ve seen around Birmingham is 104p as well. What I want to know is why the gap between petrol and diesel is still increasing. Grrr.
349 You aren’t wrong MTF:
http://tinyurl.com/3sxdbu
yawn, whining minorities.
Next.
Centrebet still have Dems-Virginia at 1.3 , which is huge value. 538 reckons Obama is 94% likely, intrade matching in mid 80s. Obama is miles ahead here, and latest polls had him +10%.
Chucked my Karlovic profits on it.
Didn’t Paddy Power pay out early on the Irish referendum voting ‘Yes’?
276. Would that be “Red” Adair Turner?
374. On the Brown comeback narrative, the following blog post from the Globe and Mail has started me thinking:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081015.WBwbradwanski20081015102618/WBStory/WBwbradwanski/
On Monday and Tuesday of last week, as the Toronto stock exchange plunged, Harper and Dion addressed the Canadian Club on successive days to outline their economic plans. Harper appeared complacent and suggested that the fall in share prices gave investors a good chance to pick up some bargains. Dion was introduced by former PM Paul Martin, gave his stump speech and highlighted the Liberals’ past record of economic management. On the same couple of days, a couple of polls showed the Liberals closing to within a few points of the Tories.
The media began declaring that the Liberals were back in the game. Speculation began about a possible Liberal minority; Dion himself let up on Harper a bit and tried to portray himself as a potential PM. When I sat down with the Canadian papers on Thursday to write last Sunday’s international slot, the Tory lead was growing again but the pundits uniformly said the election was in the balance. Some trotted out the conventional wisdom of the Liberal “Ballot Box Bonus”: the flow of NDP and minor party voters to the Liberals on election day which has tended to boost the party’s vote share by a couple of percent.
But when the votes were counted on Tuesday night, the Tories led in popular vote share by 11% and took almost all the Lib-Tory marginals. The NDP and Green votes had stayed put, and some floating voters had rallied to the Tories. As Radwanski says in the blog post, the “Liberal revival” was largely a media creation, backed up by a few polls which may have been rogues (in contrast to the very real Tory collapse in Quebec, which cost Harper his shot at a majority). Bear in mind too that most of the press endorsed Harper; and that the perception of a close race helped the Tories by raising the spectre of a Dion government - this wasn’t, or wasn’t just, a Liberal-biased media talking up its darlings.
Think too of New Hampshire, where the media settled on one interpretation of how Hillary’s blubbing incident would play with voters - and the voters settled on another.
So in the light of this, I’d take the Brown bounce with a handful of salt (unless your purpose is merely to make money by betting on it). The political earth is shaking for the first time in a decade - in the US, for the first time in a generation. The composition of the electorate is changing, in ways that are difficult to pinpoint. We don’t know where the pieces are going to lie when everything settles down. But we can learn to be sceptical of narratives that are constructed by the media, and we can recognize that in this turbulent age very little can be taken for granted.
367 Well done Andrew - are you taking over from HenryG as PB’s resident tennis tipster?
What’s happened to Henry btw, haven’t seen him for a few weeks?
Yep, you’re right about Virginia too, perhaps at this stage it’s better to go for those short priced certs, although Centrebet’s 5/2 for Obama in North Dakota does look rather tasty.
Sorry, that should refer to 347.
Apologies also for the horribly long post!
Not sure if this has been mentioned previously but I’m sure the likes of seanT will have something to say about this….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3211151/Banks-in-bail-out-scheme-cannot-pay-dividends-for-five-years-under-EU-law.html
Yeah ok, Kerry’s won for sure.
375 - nice. Game, set and match to the Eurocrats. Out manouevring Gordon is a bit like Roger Federer playing the 1000th ranked tennis player in the world - all too easy!
370. Good post Jack Petersen.
Here in the UK Brown has had a big media bounce as we have faced economic apocalypse and fear still grips the financial world. This time will pass.
The kaleidoscope has been shaken. The pieces are in flux. Soon they will settle again. These multicoloured pieces. The Brown piece will have to settle away from Downing Street. The Punters will have to settle their bets. Some will be Green and some will be Red.
370 No apologies necessary - the media and popular narratives have been shown to be divergent quite often recently. My view is that it takes a while for the underlying moves to happen, though top of the head responses to polls might show a bit of volatality, but faced with the ballot the underlying comes out.
We saw last year a huge volatility during Labour & Conservative Conferences - but when faced with a possible election in reality the polls started to return to what they had been three months before.
342
Not at all NIck. It was a pure statement of fact. Shell Optimax IIRC has additives that are better for your engine and cost effective over time., Find out for yourself before you post.
OH.. and Gordo telling oil companies to cut fuel prices when HE KNOWS they are on thge way down ANYWAY is pure spin and noone in the electorate will be fooled by such postulating.
Mike - just an idea with the US elections now three weeks away, no doubt you and Double Carpet will be planning a devilishly difficult quiz covering a number of aspects.
Would it be possible, legal and desirable even to have an entry fee of say a fiver, via PayPal, to make the winning a worthwhile experience? I guess most punters wouldn’t object to PB taking a small cut for all your and Paul’s trouble in setting this up.
375 How come the Government, which says it wants to get interest rates down is charging a gouging rate of 12% - acting like a neighbourhood backdoor usurer as the poor with bad credit ratings can’t go anywhere else. Why not 1% above Libor?
Isn’t Dominic Grieve rubbish?
I can almost feel the Tory ratings plunging every time he opens his mouth. I might be a Tory voter, but even I was willing on Geoff Hoon (of all people) to skewer him on the economy, and all his other opportunistic witterings.
And Cameron wants this useless twit to be Home Secretary in the next Tory Government?
Get rid, and bring back Davis.
364 PfP - Are you willing to have another go at predicting Sporting Index’s Obama spread for tomorrow morning? It was 340-346 at suspension.
(FWIW I thought last night it would be up a couple of points. I think I’d say the same again).
384 - Numbers out of sync - that’s now for PfP at 366
380 Yes, but what isn’t spin is the fact that petrol prices would have already been appreciably lower had this government not overseen a drop of more than 10% against the US$ over the past few months.
The very substantial fall in the international value of sterling seems to be the one big factor this government has so far got away with - probably because the full effects have yet to be felt inflation wise.
360.Someone on the earlier thread alluded to the fact that there was not censorship during the Falklands war, but everything I have read about that it indicates that there was very strict censorship. In fact, there was a clear time lag between information coming through which was nothing to do with the time differences.
Take the more recent case of the news blackout about Prince Harry being in Afghanistan and Jon Snow’s completely rubbish argument about the media’s rights to report on it. He was doing a job out there, and if there is still a lot of censorship deployed by the military when dealing with these kinds of deployments. Many families never even knew where their loved ones were during the Iraq invasion, so its seems perfectly natural to me that the media did not have the right to report on Prince Harry’s whereabouts.
383 another world, On the Database thingie Dominic yet again told us how it is and what is wrong with Labour whilst Hoon was clueless. About the 3rd time in a row he has done this tonight. Hoon completely incoherent
First!
387. Indeed it was the last war where the government could sensor the media!
By the next British involvement in 1991 - the governments grip of media had begun to slip. By 2003 it had little control at all unless reporters were embedeed. I think the reason why the Falklands was the last controlled media war may well as much been for the remote location as the government having control then!
Evening all, just go back from a debate at the union; “This house has no confidence in her majesties government.” John Denham, Eric Pickles, Paul Murphy and Oliver Letwin spoke. They haven’t counted the votes yet, but from the massive queue to vote no, I think the noes had it.
Cue comments about lefty students…
383. I thought he was good. I haven’t seen him before. He was very strong on the database.
Question Time: I have to say I initially found Dominic Grieve slightly annoying, but he has grown on me throughout the show. He was caught in the headlights a bit when Hoon picked up on his tax policy, but he was good on his home turf in regards to the proposed increased powers to tap emails etc.
He doesnt have the chummy likeability of many politicians, but he looks like he might endear respect…
383. But he was good on his home turf, he seemed to have his brief nailed down, but yes Hoon did get him on the economy, he was left flapping around on the sand.
383 I though Grieve did extremely well and Hoon got a bit of a battering all night.
384 Richard - it seems that punters are lagging somewhat behind what the pollsters’ findings suggest will be the outcome, as evidenced by PBers views last night. I remember back in 1997 when everyone knew Labour was set for a landslide, right up to the results starting to come in and indeed a little beyond, the seats spread for Labour was around 30-35 seats behind what they ultimately achieved - natural reticence perhaps.
On this basis, I don’t expect Obama’s spread to alter to any extent, at least not yet.
395
Grieve missed a trick when Hoon was going on about the Govt helping people with a 2.7 billion tax cut. It was nothing of the sort, it was to get Gordo out of the 10p tax debacle and give back to people money that had been stealtth taxed from them. Harman used this line in PMQ’s IIRC.
395. I like grieve more post-QT. But whilst I do find him commanding, he just doesnt connect as david davis could. Bring him back!
398. Its nice to have a party brimming with talent….
Wow! Paddypower, I mean. Congratulations to them.
I posted a question on this very topic two threads ago, but no-one answered then. Is anyone watching now?
My question was and still is: when will Betfair settle the US Next President market. Their rules text is as ambiguous as ever. Betfair themselves tell me:
This market will be settled once there is official confirmation from the US department of state.
I *think* that that must mean when all the electoral college count shenanigans is done, but that isn’t until January 6th 2009. Here in Australia, one of the online betting agencies isn’t paying out until the inauguration, January 20th.
Look, there can’t be many of you guys reading who aren’t affected! What’s the story?
395 Agree - I know who I believed was telling the truth about the Governments proposals and it wasn’t the Government minister. Grieve destroyed Hoon with “he’s maing a bad case defending government policy”, didn’t get riled at Hoon’s charge that Julia Goldsworthy, himself, Mr Caan and Clare Short were aiding and abetting terrorism but quite clinicaly made Hoon seem less informed about the Government’s propsals than he was.
David Davis’s lines were used by Goldsworthy, DD would have been too over eager and loud, Grieve was a bit old fashioned but quite deadly.
383.”Isn’t Dominic Grieve rubbish?”
I thought that he was very good tonight, we must have been watching through different shades..
I thought that he was making a very good point quite succinctly about why there was a post code lottery on drugs, that was until he was rudely interrupted by Dimbleby and it was lost in the ether.
402 - a perfectly competent barrister no doubt. But devoid of charisma, and zero voter appeal as a politician.
Get rid.
398 Agree DD should be found a place where his strengths can be used but without his weaknesses affecting the Opposition Front Bench - he might well have gained popular support but a maverick in a major post isn’t what the Opposition needs before an election.
400 Stephen - well we all know Betfair tend to pay as late as possible and to some extent understandably, although they did pay out promptly on both the Presidential nominees, ie well before formal endorsement by their respective conventions.
I must say that I, probably along with about 99% of other Betfair punters, are expecting to get paid out on 7 November.
McCain always had it staked against him - and fate was unkind (re financial crash during the election).
The real kudos goes to those who backed Obama as a long shot!
LibDems hold Watford Tudor byelection ( technically a gain from Ind )
LibDem 932 Con 486 Lab 273 Green 91 BNP 83
May result LibDem 847 Con 695 Lab 192 Green 72
404 I reckon that DD is playing the long game from the backbenches and is prepared to rely on “events, dear boy.”
405 Thanks for that, Peter. So am I, but that’s the point. We’re all expecting it, but Betfair have other ideas.
In this instance, with the value of the market being so huge, probably 10 million by election day, and factoring in the likelihood of the result being obvious from early counting in eastern states, I think that they will have to cave in to save face. But…
Looks like it’s game over for the Tories in Watford. Lib Dems win Tudor Ward on a 5.5% swing from the Tories.
The by-election was caused by the previous Lib Dem councillor being persistently arrested for drunk driving, so the Tories should have been able to capitalise, but due to the actions of their parliamentary candidate taking the morale high ground is a bit difficult (as it were).
Still no investigation (or apology) from Cameron - despite evidence that more than one person was in involved.
407 That’s a great result for the Lib Dems and suggest the Tories have suffered badly over the Oakley affair.
Apparently as well as continuing to refuse to offer any apology or to hold any inquiry into the antics of their former candidate, Watford Tories had to issue a retraction and apology yesterday having lied about the Lib Dem Mayor in their leaflets.
Been down the pub so didn’t see QT, but as chairman of the Dominic Grieve Appreciation Society I’m quite pleased at the reviews ‘The Dom’ is getting. No, he’s not the most photogenic of politicians, though I don’t think contacts and a number two would suit him; however his uningratiating appearance combined with a sabre-like, logical mind puts me in mind of another politician since departed - I think Grieve is the Tories answer to Robin Cook!
Portillo on This Week says that Brown needs to try to call a General Election early next year to have any chance of a decent showing. Abbott says 2009 is a possibility, to coincide with the local and/or European elections.
Now I know that neither of them are noteable pundits compared with the denizens of this site but interesting none the less.
Dated September 29th, but I haven’t seen it posted here before:
Another Downfall spoof
413: ‘Now I know that neither of them are notable pundits compared with the denizens of this site but interesting none the less.’
I wouldn’t call either of them notable pundits full stop.
Diane Abbott says David Davis can come back because ‘anyone can come back’.
Jeffrey Archer for Home Secretary, anyone?
409 I believe Betfair may build in the maximum safeguards from their own perspective to cover all eventualities, although sometimes their wording is truly awful, viz “Brown Weeks”.
Once we have a new President Elect, however, I will be very surprised if they don’t pay out promptly - they can’t be seen to be lagging behind the bookies by two and a half months.
The Watford Tories do seem to be very much set in their evil and unacceptable ways, don’t they? They just donot seem to learn.
Would it help them, do you all think, if Cameron did the right thing and held a proper enquiry into their nefarious activities?
If the Cameron brief consisted of purging the Tory Party of its nasty image, this might help them - but it would mean washing a lot of dirty clothing in public.
413 - It is a valid point, I think that a government doesn’t want to be forced into a 5th year if it can find a means of avoiding it, it looks like you are delaying the inevitable. I think the problem is that the news will be bad and getting worse and the government will by then be being kicked all across the park. I think that then the backbenches will be saying hang on as the economy will turn around soon.
413 stjohn - a GE during the 1st half 2009 looks like a value bet at 4/1, particularly if there’s any truth in the recent story about Brown’s failing eyesight.
I thought Grieve was pretty good. He’s not terribly good on TV, but clearly he’s very clever and one hope will bring some dignity and thoughtfulness back to the Home Office.
As far as David Davis goes, my suspicion is that he probably wouldn’t come back even if he was invited. I would guess he believes the Cameron government may be buffeted around by events and crisis’s in a similar way that Ted Heaths government was, and should it only be a one term government (that of course will depend on whether Labour can dump Brown BEFORE the election and avoid a blood bath) he’ll be ready and waiting to offer an alternative vision on the back benches.
I see that Grieve has just made an a*se of himself over gay cruising
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/lancashire/7674874.stm
“The law is the law and there should be no exceptions”. I mean, really, does he know ANYTHING about policing and criminal justice? There have always been exceptions and priorities.
419. Agreed. When next spring/early summer comes the recession will be at its peak and the temptation will be to hang on to the autumn in the hope they can point to signs of recovery. Come autumn we may be starting to drag ourselves out of the mire, but people will still be hurting and miserable. No time for an election that, so it’ll be put back again until May 2010 with the expectation that there will be much better economic news then. Labour MP’s will also delude themselves into thinking they can repeat 1992, where, in a recession the government hung on until almost the last moment and pulled off a surprising fourth term. Never underestimate Labour MP’s ability for self denial.
417 I think you’re right, Peter.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/video.cfm?c_id=2&gal_cid=2&gallery_id=103020
Video of Joe the Plumber saying he’s just a flash in the pan.
Oh mirth!
414. DOWNFALL!
I cannot stop laughing that is much funnier than the first one!
422 - but it’s going to be interesting for GB to go from being 20-30 points behind the Tories over the summer, to potentially being level pegging or even nosing in front over the coming weeks. Particularly if the Tories continue to go AWOL and ‘novice’ Cameron keeps his head buried in the sand and acquiescing to everything the Government comes up with.
GB knows he made the biggest mistake of his career by not going to the polls last November. Will he seize his chance and cut and run, or at the worst, not leave it any later than next March, say?
418
Have the Lib Dems set up an enquiry into the activities of their former deputy mayor and councillor in Harrogate?
Fancy Nick Palmer being taken in by a supermarket loss leader ploy to get the punters in so they spend more than they would normally. Well, I never did!
425. I think your over-estimating how close the polls will come. Without coming over too Rogeresque about this
I don’t think it’ll ever get anything like neck and neck. I think we’ll see over the next month that the public aren’t buying into the media narrative of the Brown comeback. As it become obvious that the public aren’t buying into it, so the media will quetly get back to kicking Brown. As the recession bites people will get more and more angry with Brown (No more boom and bust) and the Tories will obviously be presented with more and more opportunity’s to go on the attack.
GIN I think you are misrepresenting DD. He has said openly that he wants a new personal direction from the back benches. There is no reason to disbelieve him. From there he can take up the issues he feels important. From his recent success on 42 days that might be quite interesting for all of us.
425.
Do you live in a lighthouse?
On the idea of a Spring 09′ GE, ignore any briefings one way or the other over the coming months if Labour’s polling figures improve. The Brownites are very adept at briefing and counter briefing as it suits.
In fact, I would be highly suspicious of any talk of early GE’s or any changes in EU policy, particularly regarding the Euro. I have no doubt that Brown will try to undermine Cameron and Osborne by the usual methods. Lets face it, after bottling a GE last year for purely political reasons, anyone going to buy the reason for the government going earlier as a sign of good economic news to come?
I still don’t think that Brown will be in charge of the Labour party at the next GE, and that the timing will be dictated by when he steps down. He is the architect of New Labour’s “no more boom and bust”.
O/T
What do the Scottish electorate think of the government bailout of both RBS and HBOS? Most people in England (except staunch Labour supporters) oppose it, because we’ve been through (failed) nationalisation before. Northern Rock have become a house repossessing agent for the government, will RBS/HBOS become the same?
I have to say grudgingly that Gordon Brown has managed to preserve the UK for at least another 5-10 years, but only through stealth, coercion and manipulation- not a very healthy state of affairs. The UK exists in name only, nothing else.
427. I doubt NP ever goes near supermarkets for fear of being shouted at by cheesed off voters!
429. I don’t doubt David Davis’s ambitions are honourable (I was one of the few on here that openly supported and enjoyed Davis’s stance over 42 days and thought it was a breath of fresh air for the cynical Westminster village) But even so, Davis IS a politician and something of a professional rival to Cameron. Its kind of hard for me to believe his leadership ambitions are totally dead and buired and he must know (as all Tory supporters must) that the first term of Camerons government will be a nightmare - We’ll be talking more 79-83 than 97-01, ets put it that way!
433 Perhaps NP should be sent up to Scotland to help out RBS/HBOS!!!!
422 Can’t agree that the recession will be at its peak “next spring/early summer”. More likely to be the following winter or even beyond. If Labour wishes to avoid a bloodbath at the next GE, it should be going to the country right now.
I just can’t see the arguments for not doing so, other than just hanging on for another year’s pay and goodies.
414/424 - I’m getting YouTube saying that video is no longer available?
Weird given how many other Downfall spoofs there are out there.
After the chat on this site about the bias of bbc (in particular recent bias), I decided to see what spin they put on the panorama special this evening.
While no KO blow to anybody in particular, I actually think they were giving a reasonably fair account of where blamed lied i.e at several doors including bankers, FSA and of course for the current problems. They also let critical voices from less media savvy types complete their finger pointing at the government and FSA (rather than the hurried interruptions that often occur if a guest starts off on an unfriendly track).
However what got me to nearly fall off my seat was the VT showing GB using the now immortal phase “No return to Boom and Bust” over and over again plus other telling phases showing his previous liking for the city. I could have been watching a US style attack ad than the supposedly impartial bbc. The program concluded with the sight of a giant screen showing the size of the national debt.
I reckon some beeb executives got some friendly calls from the likes of Campbell after that performance!
432.”What do the Scottish electorate think of the government bailout of both RBS and HBOS?”
Francis, stop thinking that the people of Scotland are some faraway race that is living in a separate bubble. If the bail out plan is bombing down South, then its doing the same up North over the border.
And I don’t buy into this carry on about national identity of Scottish banks lark either. They are worried about jobs in Halifax, just as they are in Edinburgh.
416,Even as a usual-Labour voter,I would defend Jeffrey Archer on grounds of :
(a)He has been tried in the due judicial purpose
(b)He has served his sentence as prescribed by a Judge appointed by HM’s governmnet
(c)Having paid his dues,in this case a period at HM’s pleasure,surely he should be ,in fairness’s sake,a clean slate?
343. How much testing has been done about the effect of these fuel additives once they come out as exhaust gases?
437. Gordon Brown’s downfall - House prices crash
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=jbgwR1pA1k0
426 - ah the old ‘you’re all at it line’. If you don’t know the difference between a systematic campaign of violence and intimidation designed to subvert the democratic process and supported by others in the Watford Tories and the criminal actions of one or two individuals (in all parties and none) - some of whom used to post on here - then you’re even more moronic than the wilder elements in Watford Tories.
436. Well to go right now is a non starter. I mean, for a start they don’t have the money to finance an election. For another the markets are certainly not settled yet and what happens if theres a crash mid campaign? How will it look it the FTSE drops 700 points and Westminster is shut down because of an election. Moreover the clocks will be going back in a couple of weeks, which means it’ll be getting dark early, and particularly in the Scottish heartlands. Labour MP’s don’t want to be out and about campaigning when its getting dark at 4pm in the afternoon (risking going out in the dark is something thats reserved for the great unwashed like you and me, not fearful MP’s
) So an immediate election is out of the question.
As far as when the recession will be at its peak, all I can say is I was being optomistic. I was hoping it’d be spring, but your timeline is probably more likely, unfortunatly.
Speaking of the panorama program,
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=NDTLUkNVFkY
439. The political centre of gravity is further to the left in Scotland, and of course there’s a nationalist party in power, so it’s not unreasonable of Francis to at least pose the question.
Funnily enough, the first senior Scottish politician to come out against the HBOS takeover was not a Nationalist, but the Liberal Democrat leader Tavish Scott. The SNP ministers are going out of their way to act and speak responsibly on this, although it must go against their instincts to acquiesce in the takeover.
444. Mr Boom and Bust is going to have a lot of explaining to do, thats for sure.
432: Your evidence for “Most people in England (except staunch Labour supporters) oppose it”, given the opposite finding in the only poll so far? (What is it about the polls? - when nothing’s happening we have ten of them in a row, now the world turnsd over every two days and they all go to sleep)
433: problem for MPs who’ve been around for a while is that shopping is so slow, as people keep coming up to chew over the latest on the issue they raised at a surgery and you wonder whether to pretend you remember what was said before (’have you heard any more about riots in Orissa state since we discussed them?’ was one that recently stumped me as I was buying the kippers). But I’ve never had a Gibson moment (been shouted at). We’re a civil lot in Broxtowe.
447. Do you shop online?
426 I don’t know.
Did s/he run a three year campaign of criminal damage, intimidation and harassment involving more than a hundred separate incidents whilst holding the posts of first constituency organiser and then parliamentary candidate?
443 Gin - The Labour party has to find funds to fight an election soon come what may - the unions will cough up ultimately.
No Government of the day can control the FTSE, but I take your point, we remain in crisis mode.
That’s it then, a bloodbath it will be. Here’s my Rogeresque forecast - I expect the Tories to be back with a 25% lead in the polls by next March. I’ll now stand back and wait for Nick Palmer’s charity to take another tenner off me!
Oracle I agree the Panorama programme was fairly balanced. However the edit of the council leader was a little odd and my guess is they cut out a blast at Brown and the government instruction to invest money at the highest rate.
They were too light on what this means for those just retiring and those to retire soon, and the massive damage done to pensions with the market crash.
Sugar wan neither use not ornament. His usually nonsense about the great leader was not appropriate so he was left speechless. Timms couldn’t answer a straight question or even put up an appearance of doing so.
The report on the causes by the lady who I had never seen before was very good because it did not pull punches on anyone.
What was not right was to say we are all to blame. We are not. Many did not take part in the credit splurge, some that did took the government at its word about no more boom and bust, some put money into banks that were rocky but still allowed to trade carrying the FSA trade mark. Many did not vote for this shower, either, they have been foisted upon us by those who think there is a painless solution to everything.
Some were debt junkies, house price rise snobs and silly show off Rodneys and ghastly investment bank bullsh1tters. They deserve what they get.
447.
The Gibson momment was very amusing IMO - not something he should have admited too!
That must be the downside of being an MP, I would find that tough going! I never see my local MP any way! I only ever see MP’s from elsewhere in Huddersfield - Once saw Anne Taylor (now Baroness) when she was a cabinet minister in WH Smith (I ignored her as did everyone else) and then more recently the Colne Valley MP in a pub - I left a paper in her line of site with big bold writing warning of *Labour meltdown* at the polls!
445.”439. The political centre of gravity is further to the left in Scotland, and of course there’s a nationalist party in power, so it’s not unreasonable of Francis to at least pose the question.”
I think that you miss the point, the disquiet over the government bailout of both RBS and HBOS is not a left or right leaning problem. It goes right across the political divide of the public throughout the UK, and that is why I made the point I did.
Everyone has concerns and issues about what is going on and someone in Aberdeen with savings or near pension age will be thinking the same as their counterpart in Tunbridge Wells.
Its also got nothing to do with the colour of the party in charge at Holyrood, its a Westminster problem first and foremost, and its a GE first that will be the place where the voters give their verdict on this economic crisis and recession.
444 – Great Link- Lots of editing in that clip though endlessly repeating ‘Boom and Bust” however on the one long segment no mention of “Tory” boom etc?
I trust all future commentators to this site will be robustly enlightened should they inadvertently fall prey to Rogerisms.
Shadsy has put up odds for the number of ECVs the Dems and GOP will each capture in the US Presidential elections.
How about Ladbrokes doing something similar for now with regard too the next UK GE? A sort of risk averse alternative to the spread-betters GE Seats market.
456 - I think GB claimed that he meant no Tory Boom & Bust hold no water with anybody. Even if I am very generous and he meant that the 100’s of times he has said it, I don’t think the vast majority of the population gives a rats behind if it is a Tory or Labour style bust (whatever exactly they are), the question is who is going to get us through it.
454 Whilst we’re name dropping West Yorks Labour MPs, I once found myself sitting next to Alice Mahon, the local MP at the Design House restaurant in Dean Clough, Halifax
An enjoyable, varied and civilised thread tonight.
Goodnight all.
455. Well, people on the left of the Labour party would disagree with you that this is not a left/right issue, and it appears the Scottish Liberal Democrats would disagree with your contention that the independence of the Scottish banks is not a relevant issue.
442
From your response & language I clearly hit a raw nerve.
So are you saying that offences by adults against children are less serious than intimidation by adults against adults?
Is he still one of your councillors,still a member of your party?
Postscript - a cheery note on which to close, IG currently has the FTSE up by more than 200 points for tomorrow.
No need to stock up on the baked beans just yet then.
461.Fair enough. I live in Aberdeenshire, and I suspect that more than a few folk have the same concerns I do about the whole financial crisis and the upcoming recession, irrespective of their party affiliation or where they live.
462 According to this:
http://www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/Former-deputy-mayor-groomed-13.4581457.jp
He appears to have resigned.
I think you are missing the key differences between these cases.
Ian Oakley’s offences were directly related to his role as organiser and then candidate, they went on over a long period of time, there was a large amount of publicity about them when they were ongoing and his stated aim was a political one.
In these circumstances it is quite reasonable to expect the local Conservative Association to look at how he managed to carry out the quantity and type of offences he did, over a long period of time, without anyone in the local Conservatrive Party apparently ever suspecting a thing.
The Harrogate case is entirely unrelated to politics and was carried out by one man on his own computer.
462 - too right you hit a raw nerve - one that deplores the condoning of Watford Tories activities. The one that David Cameron and many other Tories don’t share - the apologists for Oakley - those who cheered him into and out of court. Those that drove him around Watford in the middle of the night to vandalise property and intimidate people simply because they were not Conservative. Those that to this day simply say he was a maverick and no longer a member of the party, but took no action when warned of his and the local party’s activities.
I’m glad you’re happy with the Tory party’s blatant condoning of Oakley’s activities - it’s destroyed their chances in a key marginal and almost certainly handed the seat to the Lib Dems. Perhaps there should be more Ian Oakleys rather than fewer - but that would be unfair on those who would have to put up with his criminal activities.
It seems as if Cameron is going to give a speech from Bloomberg HQ tomorrow on the financial crisis. Be interesting to see
a) if he gets much air time, especially from the beeb
b) if the Tories are going to continue the “support” of the government plans or if they are going to dust off the gloves and start to bash the Brown over this crisis (no idea if politically that is the right time) and
c) if they have any suggestion of any sort plans for a Cameron government during this period and for the forthcoming recession.
I think his could be quite an important moment. The immediate crisis has been seen to be passing and DC has been mostly AWOL. If he fails to look like he can re-address the balance of exposure, PR, and sounding like PM in waiting that the expected Brown bounce may stick (at least for the next few months).
As with all sound-bite politics part c) (although of real importance) has been shown to have little importance in the polling.
465
Why would the Conservative Association want to duplicate what has already been a very thorough police investigation?
The Harrogate case was related to a 13 year old child with allegations against a senior member of the local Lib Dem party, who as part of his council duties had worked a lot with youths,so not one man and his computer and not unrelated to politics.
466
So if as you claim in your rage that there were other Tories involved,why haven’t they been arrested by the police?
I wouldn’t get too excited about winning Watford from Labour but it may compensate for the loss of Harrogate.
Well Mr Falchikov and other Liberal Democrats always avoid discussion on where the money came from to shoot Rinka. Accounts of the events suggest that there was a cover up involving senior party officials, although others such as David Steel clearly had no idea what was going on.
As to Oakley, action was taken by the party on conviction and by Hillingdon Council when sentence was passed.
There is about as much evidence for mass collusion in his activites as there is in an accurate LD bar chart.
470 A former Lib Dem Mayor of Southend had a rather different attitude towards dogs.
470 - most LD activists weren’t born in the era of Rinka, you muppet.
Whereas the Tory Party clearly condones the vandalism and harrassment of Oakley.
309. Exactly , a yera ago if you were told petrol would be £1 a litre you would have been up in arms
344. As previously stated it is the exact same petrol from the same refineries.
432. Going down badly here and with the added fact that lots of people think Brown held off with rescue plans, just to make sure the Scottish banks were stuffed and thus he could try and make the SNP look bad. The clown has been pontificating about how Scotland would have been gone without his great rescue.
447. Red Meteor , Alex Neil has been speaking out against it from the very beginning, as you say Salmond played it correctly to be very statesman like on the subject and did not criticise at all.
475 I agree with this point. Brown is using the Scottish bank bailout as a justification for maintaining the union. Just imagine what people would think if the EU Parliament decided to bailout Barclays or HSBC as a means of undermining eurosceptics - it won’t happen. Labour needs Scotland so badly it wants it to be totally controlled by a permanent UK Labour government.
The SNP are England’s only friends, the bank bailout has been a hammer blow to both English and Scottish nationalism, however it needs to exposed as the political fix it is. I am sure both RBS and HBOS would have developed another strategy to deal with their problems.
Quite a few US Presidential voters must have voted by now. Anyone found a poll of how they said they voted?