Will it be another gaffe-free performance from Obama?
October 15th, 2008
So here we are - the final debate of the 2008 US Presidential Election which is taking place at Hofstra University in Hempstead, Long Island. Although tonight the main focus on the economy the big question is whether, even at this late stage, John McCain can force Obama into an error that could change the race.
If the junior senator from Illinois survives then he could become an even hotter favourite than he already is.
A Politico analysis summed it up like this: “..the challenge confronting McCain is an opponent who rarely gets thrown off his game. Once considered a potential liability, Obama’s calm and cool nature is emerging as his overriding virtue and strategy in a campaign transformed by a financial crisis — and it’s a trait well-suited for debates that allow little of the give-and-take that might fluster the Democrat. By all accounts, the even-keeled temperament reflects the real Obama. But it is also part of a fiercely protected public image that he is selling to voters, meaning the odds that McCain scores points from either forced or unforced errors may be low.”
But McCain is a gambler and he might just have a surprise up his sleeve though it’s hard to work out quite what.
As usual the whole event will be covered in the UK on both SkyNews and BBC News from abour 2 am.
If you have not yet made your prediction on the number of electoral college votes that Obama will get the PB online “poll” will stay open until noon on Thursday.
Live “Next President” betting odds.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
First!
Maybe not gaffe-free, but no knock-out for McCain and it’ll be his swansong…
If two keys aspects in US politics are ‘the big mo’ and ‘the economy, stoopid’ then Obama should have it in the bag, but I’m still not convinced that his advantage is as great as it seems. Sadly, racism will play a part, and the US polls haven’t always been reliable: witness the Kerry campaign team claiming victory in 04…
452 (previous thread)
Eastross
Troy was not in Africa but in what is now Turkey.
Perhaps you meant Carthage?
fifth!
4 - And to be really picky, Sheba was very possibly in the Yemen, not Africa.
452/Easterross. “Surely the point is that given he was a child in 60s America ..”
No he wasn’t; by his own account, and the official record, he was a child in 1960s Indonesia…
I’m sure Obama won’t suggest unemployment can be cured by getting everyone lagging lofts.
reposted from last thread:
to see how the polls were in 2004 at this time in the campaign have a look at the State polls
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/special/polls/index.html
3. Except that in 2004 the polls were pretty accurate in that for weeks beforehand they had predicted a narrow Bush victory.
Kerry’s team were just engaged in wishful thinking based on highly dubious exit polls which, as on previous occasions, had a left wing bias.
tories
Just watched a report on SkyNews from Haiti. Following the storms, they featured a woman who has been reduced to feeding her kids dried mud.
We are living in the lap of luxury. Don’t you ever feel a tiny bit embarrassed having to pretend that the UK is some sort of hell on earth?
Oi, knobs.
There I am building up a three grand position on the party leaders at next election, I take out the pathetic stupid bids, and now you lot start feeding in bids to try and stop me squaring up and doing it all again at the next nonsense story about Brown (and yeah, I am hedged against him dying or Cameron meeting with an accident).
What do you have to say for yourselves? I’m not bidding more than 1.15 to exit that, I’ll just hold till expiry where you all know I’ll be right
So stop it!
(Oh, and by the way if you build them up to more than about 1.8 I will take you out ;))
11 - Gabble you are such good value.
Gabble
If you had watched a report on a wretched situation somewhere else in the world during 1979-97 would you also have taken a pragmatic view and thought…”hmmm, maybe living in the UK with Thatch/Major in charge ain’t so bad after all”???? Just wondered
I am very bemused.
Obama Hussein sounds a cross between Ossama Bin Laden and Saddam Hussein. Even his running mate Biden sounds like “Bin Laden”
I would not believe he could win. The fact that he is in the lead sugesst that a) People are keeping their vote to themselves or b) Obama has the “luck of the devil” like Tony Blair.
Obama is another Blair. I’ve listened to his speeches, full of soaring rhetoric and saying nothing. He is smarmy, shallow and stands for “Change”, ie everything that is not that country.
So, if Obama is another Blair, then he probably will win. He will do to the US what Blair has done to the UK.
Just to say - I think i was the first on PB to highlight the lack of dividend payments to commercially owned shares in RBS & HBOS due to the govenment wanting preference shares repaying before dividends! Not bad for a stupid unemployed b*st*rd, who was formally a Financial Adviser!!!
Cannot wait to start lagging lofts!!!
13 - Don’t fight Gabble. Embrace it.
Darling struggling on Newsnight and the interviewer was Emily Hopeless…
11. No = because it could happen here!
hello free speech please
16. Great post, idiot.
18 - True enough. I wasn’t expecting him to show humility!
19 struggling you say. So can I assume that Tories want the dividend provision for RDS share holders to remain
When even Biden manages a whole debate without gaffes, I think the likelihood that either Obama or McCain will slip up badly is rather low.
I was expecting some sort of trap/trick from McCain in the last two debates and they didn’t surface; I can’t see any surpices tonight.
23 - I’ve figured that if we continually agree with the Gabble, it will suffer a logic failure.
Gabble — Don’t *you* ever feel a tiny bit embarrassed, full stop?
PS: The “soldier of truth” has been slacking — he forgot to tell us the FTSE fell 7% today.
19 yes and the Treasury now say that the banks misunderstood the deal they made!
As Debbie sang “move over Darling….”
23. To be fair, Biden waffled on and took his speech advisers stance to an extreme - he was up against Palin - the left say she is useless but she was on level terms in that debate, so the write up’s say!
11 “Just watched a report on SkyNews from Haiti. Following the storms, they featured a woman who has been reduced to feeding her kids dried mud.”
It just shows you what socialism does. I hear the same things happen in Zimbabwe and North Korea.
Perhaps if all Haitians come to live in Britain, it will enrich us with multicultural vibrancy.
Of course, that which has made Haiti so successful, can come with them.
Then we can all be in fear of machete weilding Tonton Macoute.
27 - So the Treasury is stitching up the banks, and Gordon has shafted Iceland. I’ll say one thing for HMG - they’ve become expert at making enemies.
Huffington Post says Colin Powell might endorse Obama after tonight’s debate
That would be game over, I suspect
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lawrence-odonnell/colin-powell-is-ready-to_b_134777.html
OK, you betting experts. Here’s some fun for you:
SportingIndex suspended their US election market tonight (as they do every night). It was suspended at 334-340.
Predictions please: at what level will it resume tomorrow?
452 previous. “I see that with 600+ votes now the pb.com voters are less McCain orientated than Betfair punters reckoning his chances at only 10/1 compared with 11/2″.
Not necessarily. Each member of the pbc community is predicting what they think is the most likely single outcome but you can’t aggregate these responses to get a collective group-think. For example, I voted 330-359 so by definition gave that 100% of my votes and 0% to the rest, but I’d never put the implied odds from those percentages to a market.
Were it possible technically, a pbc view of how the market could be created by allocating percentages against each of the options and then averaging them - effectively asking each contributor to create their own ’shadow book’.
Gabble = Dirty European Socialist’s slightly higher-functioning older brother?
19 - In fairness to Alistair Darling, it’s very difficult commenting on a detailed quiz when the terms of the deal remain private.
32 that’s 334-340 for Obama, of course!
33 - I spend half my day hearing the word “stochastic”. Can’t we stick on politicalbetting with gratuitous abuse and slyly teasing the trolls?
Darling has just been interviewed on Newsnight.
I find him increasingly impressive. Throughout the emerging crisis he has not ducked an interview, has been quite open and forward about the extent of the problems that we face and has not sought to gain any personal political capital from the crisis.
He looks and clearly is genuinely worried about the difficulties we face and appears to be doing his best in circumstances not of his making without seeking to blame others.
Not that my enthusisam for him is in any way influenced by my recent bet on him being next Labour leader at 100/1. No connection whatsoever!
If more Republicans were in the vein of Eisenhower and Powell instead of Palin and Santorum, the GOP wouldn’t be facing electoral wipe-out.
34 - I forgot about DES, he was quality. But hand it to Gabble, he’s better entertainment than merely a DES clone!
38 - I don’t agree, I’m afraid. You rightly say that Alistair Darling hasn’t sought to make political capital out of this and looks worried, but that isn’t enough. He had a tough job tonight, but he didn’t do it particularly well. At the end of the interview, he looked like a man at the limits of his briefing.
Interesting, though. I wonder if 100-1 represents the longest odds ever on a sitting Chancellor of the Exchequer becoming next leader of his party?
Darling struggling - HBOS is a millstone round Lloyds neck - shareholders of Lloyds need to summon up the strength and put this millstone back round Gordon’s neck which is where is where it came from
Barclays and Lloyds are well run London based banks which do not need government support - whereas the reckless Yorkshire centric banks of Halifax, Bradford and Newcastle and the over expansionist Scots need help and should be taken into full government ownership with full government influence in their business until the taxpayer is compensated fully for the risk
Firstly, don’t write McCain off, he has that happen to him many times.
secondly the bank deal looks awkward, certainly share prices have done very badly today world wide.
Thirdly I was right about an oil price crash.
I did tell you so, so there
re 33 but surely all those who think that Obama will get less than 270 reckon that McCain will win the election and it matters not how those who thinks Obama will win split.
36 I predict 334-340 Obama, are you offering a prize btw?
45 Sorry, can’t afford a prize unless you can engineer a sudden improvement in my ’sell Labour’ position. Times are hard, you understand…
42 - Newcastle definately isn’t in Yorkshire…
Looks like the markets are beginning to get into a downward spiral again. Does the government have a Plan B if the recent bail out doesn’t work?
IG quoting FTSE 100 Daily 3863.
Back to where we were before the bailout.
Dow about 400 points above it’s intra day low of last week.
Meanwhile Gabble wants to talk mud pies.
Re 38 Stjohn “Not that my enthusisam for him is in any way influenced by my recent bet on him being next Labour leader at 100/1. No connection whatsoever!”
No I would not connect the two either
In all seriousness he does come across much better than Brown, is not joking about banks going bust and does not seem hubristic about the last 11 years that have led us here.
Those intending to stay up for tonight’s debate shouldn’t expect too much excitement - I expect Obama to play it ultra safe.
42. Morgan. I got the impression that Darling either did not support the LTSB-HBOS deal or possibly was not even consulted and possibly hopes shareholders will reject it?
42 - Halifax was OK, until the Tartan skirt wearers from North of Hadrians Wall got involved.
48 - An emphatatic NO. And all the more embarassing for Gordon given how much he stacked on the bank recapatilisation plan, both domestically and globally. This may be like John Major’s devaluation not an option speech about 48 hours before Black Wednesday.
51 But will McCain play it ultra safe?
44. Not necessarily. Although those who think Obama will get more than 270 by definition expect him to win, it doesn’t mean they’re 100% sure. As long as they’re more than 50% sure they should be voting that way, although the way this poll is set up even that isn’t necessarily the case.
Suppose someone thinks the odds are 60-40 to Obama but within the sub-divisions Mike’s supplied, the 60 breaks down 30/20/10/0. Should s/he vote for one of them to register for Obama or - as is the object of the exercise - for the sub-270 which is believed to be the most likely outcome, even if it’s odds against?
To take another example, suppose there are only two options and ten people all believe the balance of probability is 55-45 the same way. There’ll be a unanimous result of 10-0 but that masks the fact that they are all very undecided.
Did anyone watch newsnight and the truly scary story about credit default swaps?? the figs involved are truly staggering.
52 That can’t be right:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ef5082ca-854a-11dd-a1ac-0000779fd18c.html
“In a statement, John Hutton, secretary of state for business and enterprise, said the public interest conditions normally applied only to media ownership and cases where national security was involved. He said that on the advice of the Treasury, the Bank of England and the Financial Services Authority, he would apply it in this case too.”
How could the Treasury give its advice on such an important matter without Alistair Darling being consulted and supportive?
47 not Yorkshire agreed but Northern parts yes
Re 31 Morus, I have just read that article, and wondered if anyone had considered the possibility that Colin Powell might endorse McCain? After all the Powell doctrine involves sending in as many troops as possible to secure your objectives, a bit like the surge, but from day one, which McCain has been arguing for since day one and is showing results?
54. The problem for Brown is he leaps into a credit gaining position whenever he thinks he has the innotiative, it normally works that after a few days it fails. Brown is a loser - he is the kiss of death to whatever he assigns himself too.
41. Don’t know, but other chancellors who must have been very long odds to become the next leader of their party:
Lamont post-Black Wednesday
Lawson, who explicitly ruled himself out on a number of occasions
Barber, especially after inflation got out of control
Sixty-third! (for now, until the numbering goes wrong as posts come out of moderation)
Re 57, Maggie Thatcher Fan, “Did anyone watch newsnight and the truly scary story about credit default swaps?? the figs involved are truly staggering.”
Yes I did and its b*ll*cks.
Lehmans $400 billion CDS’s settled for a transfer of cash of $6 billion. In the grand scheme of things its peanuts. It is also Will Hutton spreading fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD).
That said I think you should not be able to use a CDS unless you can show an underlying interest, and then only to the value of the interest you have for transparency reasons.
58. antifrank. Fair enough. He must have been aware and been consulted. But he didn’t seem very supportive of the merger to me. Just my impression.
In the interest of science, could I ask interested volunteers to take part in a little experiment I have devised…
We have lots of arguments here over polls, their meaning, their significance, their portent, etc, and in particular Mike’s criticism of averaging …
Well, I’ve come up with a little program that scientifically measures the accuracy of one’s ability to read polls, and the empirical validity of the poll average. The data collected could be quite useful, and as far as I know, such an experiment has never been conducted before… (drum roll, shades of the Hadron collider
)
You will need Excel and Internet Explorer to participate, and Explorer must be open before you run the Excel program.
What you will see is 6 simulated polls taken around the same. You don’t know, of course, what the true underlying level of support for the party is, but it appears to be somewhere in the range 35-45%
You must select the poll that you think is closest to the true value, and the program then tells you whether or not the poll you selected was beaten by the average of the six polls. i.e. the average of 6 polls was closer to the true result than the single poll you selected. You can do this several times, (say 15-20), exit and your overall score versus the average is displayed. Then (hopefully) your scores are uploaded to a Google Doc spreadsheet, where I can then analyse the collective result from all who participate. On a technical note, the process involved is quite interesting, and not supposed to be technically possible, but I seem to have got it to work by a workaround. There are a several interesting applications that could flow from this test, in relation to PB.C polls, competitions, etc, and even collective betting possibilities…
So, if you would like a little diversion, please download
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/avgame.xls
There are three Worksheets, TEST1, TEST2 and TEST3, which look superficially similar, but are actually subtlely different. Please have a play on each sheet, say 10+ trials each. You can repeat ad infinitum if you are really bored…
I promise there is nothing malicious in the code, and it only transfers the program data to Google Docs.
Reminder. Don’t press play until/unless you have a copy of IE actually open… Note Firefox or other browsers won’t work. It must be Internet Explorer, although you can continue to use your other browser at the same time. Just make sure a copy of IE is open and running before you press play…
Cheers
Hi Benedict, Thanks, Hope u r well. I found it a bit difficult to follow, but the numbers themselves sounded scary.. the entire worlds GDP….. WTF is that all about?
65 - It was my impression too. He seemed remarkably distant from his own Government’s policy. Almost as if the Government is prepared to sanction the deal unravelling.
What time does the debate start? I have an American Politics lecture at 9am, so I might do an all-nighter
31- Two issues with what you said, Morus. First, it’s already game over. But even more importantly, do you really believe Colin Powell’s endorsement would be the coup de grace? I can’t name one endorsement that’s ever decided a U.S. presidential election. Can you?
Re 66, Rod, “You will need Excel and Internet Explorer to participate, and Explorer must be open before you run the Excel program.”
Can’t help, internet explorer does not run on Linux/Unix.
Re 67, Maggie Thatcher Fan “Hi Benedict, Thanks, Hope u r well. I found it a bit difficult to follow, but the numbers themselves sounded scary.. the entire worlds GDP….. WTF is that all about?”
It is like reinsurance. If you added up all the contracts (reinsurance included for say the twin towers you would end up with a very large figure, much larger than the actual liability.
Re 70, Stars and Stripes “First, it’s already game over.”
Really? McCain a cert?
re 64 Benedict good to see you back. I see that you now have a - cough - blog.
72- Obama a guaranteed win.
Re 74, Stars and Stripes, what odds a McCain win?
Re 73, Chris A, “re 64 Benedict good to see you back. I see that you now have a - cough - blog.”
Many thanks, I am back when I can but alas have many more calls on my time…
A blog? As it happens I do its here:
http://aconservatives.blogspot.com/
74- not quite that simple with young Benedict. You see McCain once spoke at a Tory conference, and for that our chivalrous Benedict has given his undying loyalty, even though McCain has morphed into a cantancerous old git, showed monumental lapses in judgment, made the worst VEEP pick in history, bla, bla..
Obama is very likely to win.
Why?
In actuality, it could have been a very tricky campaign for the Democrats - they went with an untested first-term Senator, up against a very experienced GOP veteran, considered somewhat of a maverick. It is easy to see how they could have failed.
They have won by default, because the global crisis has shown McCain up. His suspending of his campaign coupled with his complete idiocy over potentially boycotting the first debate have shown that he is not Presidential. Sarah Palin could have been a great pick but she was mishandled, IMHO, and played to the prejudices against her in the Couric interview.
I am quite glad Obama is the victor now. I worry about his empty rhetoric but I am sure he will provide the US with a boost of energy. I do, however, worry that he is another ‘Blair’ and we’re going to get 4 years of soundbites and little action. Prove me wrong, Obama (you have done before, I hope you will do again).
Re 76 Tyson, Actually I have noted the number of times McCain has been written off, died, been buried only to come back.
Frankly I though he was a useless speaker at the Conservative party conference. Obama is a much better orator. That said, I and Michael White of the Guardian both think McCain is still in the race.
Yes Palin does seem like a loony choice from here, but then so does promising to attack Pakistan.
54. So what will happen if the FTSE and DOW drop heavily over the next couple of days and the we see more runs on baking shares?
@66. Amazing idea! Looks like a very interesting psychology experiment. I’m sure you thought of it, but you might be able to find out how much outlier polls skew our perception (like the 14 pt. lead for Obama yesterday). Assuming there are no flaws in your program, my scores seem to show I should simply take the RCP average at face value and not try to guesstimate which poll “fits”. I did feel there was a certain learning effect, though. I also didn’t really take into account you had given the possible range with all the statistical implications (normal distribution etc., hope I don’t spoil anything), because in real life, I can only guess that range.
My scores are pretty bad. The average beat me:
TEST1: 73%
TEST2: 36%
TEST3: 47%
Sorry, Rod. It didn’t work. Something to do with macros.
79 - A run on baking shares is probably a sign that we’re all on hte breadline!
77- I’d like to agree with you, but I’ve predicted an Obama win of about six points right from the get-go. It was almost inevitable that the Dems would win this election. Hillary would have won it had she been nominated. As it so happens, Obama will win it. I think many of McCain’s actions, as well as Obama’s actions, are being seen through the prejudicial light of the polls when in fact the outcome has more to do with factors larger than the candidates themselves.
82 - Or that we’ve run out of dough.
81 I had the same problem. You have to enable macros. On Office 2007 click the office symbol, then excel options, then “trust centre” on the left, then “trust centre settings”, then “macro settings”, the “disable all macros with notification”. click ok. then you will be given a warning and click run or something similar and it will work.
75- A McCain win, I would have to put at no better than maybe 15 or 20 to 1. There is just too little time and too few things that could happen to sway the race enough for him to win.
79 insurance cos are the next ones to watch.
profits at energy cos, viability of heavily invested new oil fields in doubt too as the commodities bubble continues to collapse.
people that think we are in any way out of the woods because of the weekend bailout are in for a shock. a severe recession (most severe since WW2) is very likely.
84 - At least we can still leaven the mood, eh?
Quick question: Why would Colin Powells endorsement make a blind bit of difference?
Newsnight was a giggle tonight. Emily desparately trying to spin for Gordon and failing with the woman from the EU;
1.You have all implemented the Brown plan.
No, the plans are not all Brown plans, they are all different. There is a mix of ideas from the British plan but also ideas from others.
2. But Gordon was the fast off the mark; you needed a kick up the bum.
No. We all acted at different paces because some were in more trouble than others and had to act more urgently [ie us!].
3. But Gordon was the driving force.
No. It was the G4 who ALL put ideas on the table at that meeting and decided to move forward with other nations, each nation doing its part.
The President of the EU was directing operations.
All the time she spoke she had a half smile on her face.
They think Gordon is a spinning prat - not a superhero. He has done his bit [no doubt] but he’s overegged it and they have seen through him.
I am begining to like the EU. More than Brown anyway.
Re 86 Stars and Stripes “75- A McCain win, I would have to put at no better than maybe 15 or 20 to 1. There is just too little time and too few things that could happen to sway the race enough for him to win.”
So how much would you take at 20 to 1?
88 - I think we’ve proved that we can rise to the occasion, cupcake.
89- I already asked that question at 60 and have yet to elicit a response…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/leading_article/article4951327.ece
All call to arms to the Tories.
The Times has concerns about the bail out.
Regarding Powell… I just don’t see why he would endorse, unless he endorsed McCain. Obama is in a good position to win. His ability to be CiC will not be a major issue at this point. If McCain isn’t very very lucky tonight, there will be no change of (actual) momentum. Powell might play a role in a future Obama administration. Endorsing now would diminish his “bipartisan” credentials and might in fact look as if he really wanted a job.
By contrast, a Powell endorsement would help McCain quite a bit. If he (McCain) performed well tonight, showing Obama respect and distancing himself from the past eight years, a subsequent Powell endorsement may add fireworks to the reboot. The media would be all over it. While this would, from my perspective, be a great political move, I’m not sure it’s doable with Palin on the ticket. I simply cannot imagine Powell endorsing a ticket with a VP Palin, nor can I imagine her fitting into any campaign narrative beyond “doggonit, let’s get the darn pitch forks!” This is clearly not John McCain’s GOP, but hers. They have done Powell no favors, why should he throw them a lifeline?
I don’t think Powell is going to endorse. If he does, I’m afraid it will be a mistake either way.
You know when the Tories are worried
* Speculate on, or rather WISHING our countrys economy fails, not just a bit but a lot..What lovely people.
* They also resort to the scot angle, how predictable
News people.
This time next year, inflation 1% Interest rates under 3%, Petrol under 70p a ltr, Utility bills cut by 10-20%, the banking system back to normal. Unemployment will unfortunaely rise, but hopefully not too much ( at this point all the tory types will be wishing it breaks 3m…nice people. ) I doudt this very much most economists have wildly differing opinions on the figure, that in my book raises hope. Remember right wing economics predicting the min wage would cost 2m jobs., and the Euro would only last a year..wrong as ever
91- Sorry, but I don’t actually bet! It’s all imaginary dollars for me. But to be serious for a moment, I would be willing to risk perhaps $1,000 even at that price if I were a gambling man. I would consider it pretty much guaranteed money at this point.
To put it another way, I would expect a guy in McCain’s position to come back and win in this situation maybe once per century. Since there are 25 presidential elections per century, his odds may not even be that good!
92 - well as they say a bun is the lowest form of wheat!
Rasmussen “Colin Powell: Most Valuable Endorsement”
“A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that voters are not likely to be impressed by high profile political endorsements. Out of a list of fifteen different public figures, publications, national associations and politicians, only one endorsement – Colin Powell’s – would have a significant net positive impact on voters. ”
That was in February though.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colin_powell_most_valuable_endorsement
Re 87 James A “79 insurance cos are the next ones to watch.”
If you mean the ones who have stock market investments (Like the Japanese firm that went bust last week) you may have a point. The way the bank bailout is structured does not take account of the damage that may be done there.
“profits at energy cos, viability of heavily invested new oil fields in doubt too as the commodities bubble continues to collapse.”
Profits at energy companies are still there at current oil prices, except perhaps for Ken Livingstone’s favourite oil man.
“people that think we are in any way out of the woods because of the weekend bailout are in for a shock. a severe recession (most severe since WW2) is very likely.”
Well, no, having given it some thought, it will not be as bad as that. We will be living with the aftereffects for 30 years, and it will not be good, possibly worse than the early 90’s, but not so bad.
80. Well done (in getting it to work, I’m getting quite a bit of data through already!) I don’t want to give too much away at this stage about what’s going on. I want people to employ their own strategies to “guess” which poll is closest to the true value, and when the experiment is over I’ll reveal all.
81. Sorry about that. I guess there will be configurations of individual’s machines that may need tweaking, but perhaps the solution offered at 85 helps?
93. I see. I think that a Powell endorsement would have next to no effect. I think a lot of swing voters might think Powell was endorsing Obama because of something entirely unrelated to foreign policy.
96 Oh really Sally.
So the Tories are going to break cover and back dividend payments…Music to none Tory ears, good luck selling that.
The Times story Sally was an attack on the Tories, it was sniping at silence, it was a clear shot at your buddies.
Re 96 Stars and Stripes “91- Sorry, but I don’t actually bet! It’s all imaginary dollars for me. But to be serious for a moment, I would be willing to risk perhaps $1,000 even at that price if I were a gambling man. I would consider it pretty much guaranteed money at this point.”
Well, it is a betting site..
So if you are prepared to risk a $1,000, on a bet you think has less of a chance than a 25 to 1 shot, but at 20 to 1 there is much margin in it for you, but in short you will only take $50 from me for a potential $1,000 risk?
For the Republicans it’s a good election to lose, not that it’s in their nature to see it that way.
A Democratic President, House and Senate presiding over two years of intense economic misery will see a backlash in the mid terms that could leave him a prisoner of a hostile congress before he’s hardly begun.
Of course, Obama could be an extraordinary man who’ll subtly shift America’s focus from the land of infinite possibilities to a more pragmatic view of its role in the world, but it’s a tough ask.
Nothing in the Audacity of Hype suggests that he knows how to do this.
In four years time welcome to Mitt V Hillary.
87. It’ll be grim if that is the case.
90. Sounds funny. I would think EU leaders are already having Brown swanning around claiming credit for everything they are doing.
94. The Tories supported the plan, so if it does turn out to be a disaster, they won’t be able to say too much about it.
And with that I’m signing off to go get some sleep and save myself any more embarassing spelling mistakes. Enjoy the debate those that are staying up for it.
103. Palin v. Frank.
Re 100, Rod, “81. Sorry about that. I guess there will be configurations of individual’s machines that may need tweaking, but perhaps the solution offered at 85 helps?”
It will not help me, as I don’t run anything Microsoft on my home PC at all.
99. “A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that voters are not likely to be impressed by high profile political endorsements”
Hmm, I’m not entirely convinced by that. It’s a bit like a survey asking people ‘is your shopping choice influenced by adverts?’ - of coyrse everyone is going to say no.
PS. A belated thanks to Aidan for the Glenrothes figures on the previous thread. It makes me wonder how ‘Labour strategists’ can be quite so confident about what they’re telling Gordon Brown (and then leaking to the BBC), but I suppose if a poll comes out showing Labour gaining another 5% I might have to take their point.
O/T - great final frame deciding win just for my childhood hero, Steve Davis. Well done Steve - 2nd ranking event quarter final in a row.
Re 103, Derek “Of course, Obama could be an extraordinary man who’ll subtly shift America’s focus from the land of infinite possibilities to a more pragmatic view of its role in the world, but it’s a tough ask.”
Yes, the peanut farmer Carter tried that, it appeared not to work as a two term strategy.
97 That’s Rank bad!
102- I’d take more if you were offering! Seriously, though, I’m in the U.S. and couldn’t be wagering with you anyway.
Re 94, Sally C , that is a good thoughtful article. I agree that the 12% interest rate demanded of our banks is also very counter productive.
103- Mitt vs. Hillary? No chance. It will be Obama running for re-election. I have no idea at this moment who the GOP nominee will be. It may be a relatively good time for the GOP to be leaving the Dems in complete control, and therefore complete responsibility, at a time when many unpopular choices are going to have to be made, but they would be better off if they come out of this within shouting distance of a real comeback.
Sally it is more than a failed BBC stunt. Brown rushing around spinning himself as superman is seriously annoying other European leaders.
He, as Brogan reports, begged to get into the meeting of Eurozone leaders so they let him. As far as I can establish he was there for the first part of their meeting, then went to the garden to do his press conference while they got on with their own meeting followed by a photo op without the Saviour of the World.
So there has been mighty spin there about him leading them to the promised land, and that irritation will be having consequences in the UK’s position.
The clumsy attempt by Mateliss to reinforce the Saviour of the World image and story backfired seriously as you could see with the French Finance MInister - who makes Darling Brown look like beginners fumbling in the bushes - fuming at the inanity and stupidity of the line of questioning.
The Minister rightly emphasised that all countries will have different recipes for their particular situation, and the outline of the ‘Brown Plan’ was actually outlined on 4th October at a group of four meeting in paris, a plan which gave a life line to the UK which was and is by far the most seriously rocky EU country, Brown then characteristically dithered about causing some further loss of confidence and only acting when he could not longer avoid it.
While Darling and his team worked through the night Brown went to bed, to rise the next morning to proclaim we were all to be saved by his savvy solution.
Pace.
Re 111, Stars and Stripes, “I’d take more if you were offering!”
I could be offering $50 for a $1,000 if McCain wins, I could probably lay that off at a profit. (I win whoever wins)
“Seriously, though, I’m in the U.S. and couldn’t be wagering with you anyway.”
Now that is just a cop out!
Surely the most valuable skill any incoming President can possess is the ability to surround himself with first class talent?
The second most valuable is the ability not to over-govern.
are bless 118 and sallys little tantrums, the truth is hard to swallow isnt it.
Brown and Darling made a plan, announced, them implimented the plan.
Since then the EU and the US have followed ( copied ) their plan… Praise indeed
116- I’d say that sound judgment is the most valuable skill. President by committee just isn’t very effective when you’re talking about what is literally the highest executive position in the world. The first-class talent can inform that judgment, but can’t replace it.
113. If an Obama presidency turns into a re run of Carter never discount Hillary coming back into the race to ’save the Democrat party’.
I remember Obama’s keynote speech in 2004. At the end the cameras turned on the great and the good in the VIP area watching the speech. Everyone rose and applauded and there wasn’t a smile to be seen on the Clinton’s faces. There’s a visceral loathing.
109 Good evening,Benedict,its sunny old just-about-Labour Patrick-you may be intrigued to know,that I would almost certanily rate Jimmy Carter as the worst post-war US President-and from my viewpoint I should be backing him as a Democrat!
(I do vaguely remember as a very little boy in the late 70s,the news would mention ‘President Carter’ and then he was bumbling around like a blue-arsed fly trying to fix it!.
FWIW,more seriously,I wish Barack Obama every sucess,in the 90-something% chance it does happen.I was deeply,deeply moved by William J.Clinton’s e;ection,and saw it as a pivatol,hopeful moment.It is the case Clinton had been Govr of Arkanas far longer than Senator Obama has been in Illinois-but hope does historically have to take precedence over experience.(FDR ‘32,Kennedy ‘60,Clinton ‘92-and: the one you’ll hate -Blair in ‘97-as likely as not to be followed by ‘2010-the sequel’;author D.Cameron
31. Lawrence O’Donnell doesn’t seem to me like the sort of person who’d have contact with Powell. It’s informed speculation - Powell did say he was waiting for the debates - but I wouldn’t say more than that.
Re 86. fivethirtyeight.com puts McCain at 4.9% at the moment, which fits your estimate, but I think that Nate Silver’s model is underestimating him. In a close election, I think 538 would do an excellent job of estimating the probabilities, but in one’s that aren’t close, the guy that’s behind needs large events outside of his control to close the gap. Those events are not normally distributed in frequency; they have fat tails, occurring more often than predicted by a normal distribution. Just as hedge funds failed to take this into account, so do all the models of this election that I’ve seen. I would personally put McCain at about 10%-15%, which is where Betfair has him.
Caveat: if Obama is showing these numbers, or even half his current lead, on November 3rd, nothing can stop him.
It should be interesting enough - McCain has to take some risks, but as Mike says Obama should be good at handling off-the-wall attacks. I used to agree with Al Fresco about his rhetoric being empty, but his book persuaded me otherwise and I’m genuinely puzzled that Derek calls it ‘Audacity of Hype’ - it’s thoughtful, balanced and by no means hyped up.
Back home, in a way it’s quite irritating that we’ve not had a poll all week - when we do, I guess any rescue bounce will have settled somewhat and if the Tories are still ahead by 10% everyone will go ho-hum. But it should give a clearer picture of what people think - a poll taken 2-3 days ago would have been generally rubbished as froth.
The Times queries are phrased reasonably enough, and there’s room for debate on most of those issues. But in reply to the query ‘What if there is another run on bank shares?’, the answer is that share movements didn’t trigger the crisis: they’re a symptom of investor judgment, not a short-term problem in themselves (in the same way, I’ve never claimed that a recovery in share values will show we’ve triumphed). The urgent problem was shortage of capital and credit. A run on deposits would be serious, but shares should be allowed to go up and down without panic.
118- Ted Kennedy tried to knock off Carter and it didn’t work. The only realistic chance is if Obama’s so wildly unpopular that he doesn’t even run for re-election. That would be very surprising.
The Times can only get it half right when it says:
Gordon Brown hijacked the EU summit in Brussels yesterday by challenging Europe’s leaders to move to “stage two” of his bank rescue plan and calling for an international conference to reorganise financial regulation.
The new spring in the Prime Minister’s step was much in evidence as he upstaged his fellow leaders by arriving first and fitting in two press conferences before the summit had even started. As word spread that Mr Brown was having his second presentation, the European press corps crowded in, some taking chairs from the room next door, where President Sarkozy, host of the summit, was yet to appear.
Not to be outdone, the French President issued his own two-page paper several hours later. It called for an overhaul of the financial system and “a new form of capitalism”. He echoed the need for a world forum, claiming that he had proposed such a meeting to the United Nations last month..
This is no way to treat your host who you must depend upon to get things done, the current President of the EU and France. First upstage him physically then steal his thunder before he gets into the room. And while upstaging him claim again that it is all your own work form start to finish. Note ‘to move to “stage two” of his (Brown’s) bank rescue plan.” Not that other leaders had anything to do with it at all? What a berk.
The Times seems to think this behaviour was a success, but those who have any feel for European politics will see it as old fashioned British grandstanding. And we all know where that gets us in the corridors of power in Brussels.
How long can the media go on with this silly superman thing? Are they all so scared of what is happening they are clinging on to the familiar as a lifeline? Or is it old fashioned British hubris? Or are they purposely pumping up Brown because they are as aware as we are that he will take it too far and self destruct wonderfully, leading to more great headlines.
Whatever it is it is not helping the EU work together happily.
Re 119, Patrick, my fear over Obama is his need to do things like say he will take military action in Pakistan rather than being reticent about it. The Bush government just does it. (That said, they do not realise the political cost of doing it and so should only do it for exceedingly high value targets).
123. Yes, well, Brown got it right before any other government, and the newest Nobel laureate for economics said so (login req’d). He has a bit more latitude with Europe than normal.
114.”Sally it is more than a failed BBC stunt. Brown rushing around spinning himself as superman is seriously annoying other European leaders.”
I thought it very interesting that the French Finance Minister very pointedly refused to play Maitliss’s game, and in fact highlighted Darling involvement rather than Brown’s.
StJohn, that bet might be worth something.
re 121, Nick Palmer “A run on deposits would be serious, but shares should be allowed to go up and down without panic.”
Alas runs on shares are all panic.
That said I do find the governments demand for a 12% interest rate odd when it insists that banks lend nearer 4.5%. Sounds punitive to me
Is there a betting market on who would be the New Speaker of the HoC’s, or is that too presumptuous despite all the other options for PM etc?
Also, what about odds on the turnout for the US elections?
re Assassination: the critical period for Obama (if elected) is the period between the election and the certifying of the vote. As scholars have noted, an assassination during this period would not only remove the President-elect, but could quite possibly overturn the will of the people and hand the White House to the defeated Republicans. The 1873 Greeley decision means that Congress will not certify the votes of a dead man, and if he was killed before the college cast their votes, the Democratic electors could possibly split between Biden and Clinton, throwing it to the House, where deadlock might eventually produce a Republican president…
It is notable that both FDR and JFK were the subjects of assassination attempts during this period…
Ladbrokes “McCain Firewall Finder”, aka Stop at a Winner, has that look of a mug punter’s betting game - rather like the seemingly never-ending Veep markets, where many of us just kept picking one supposedly likely candidate after another.
Against my better judgement therefore I’ve had a small punt on the “winning” State being Missouri at a price of 12-1.
I notice 538.com have reeled in Obama’s ECV count by around 7 votes this evening and I suspect that this may be on the back of a disappointing poll for him in MO.
Doubtless, I’ll be back with at least another couple of picks before the contest is decided.
128 Christina - it’s probably still to early to assess likely candidates to be the next Speaker, but if you ask Shadsy nicely, he might open a book - do you have your own favourite contender?
Certainly several bookies are offering odds on the turnout for the US elections - usually centred on whether it will be more or less than last time (circa 57% IIRC), or whether it will exceed 60%.
It’s very quiet on here tonight, presumably this means few have decided to stay up for the final Presidential Candidates’ debate.
132. They’re all busy testing my little toy
Three consecutive posts without reply - I think it’s my bedtime.
I was going to say “Goodnight All”, but that would seem to be something of an exaggeration, so I’ll just say Goodnight You!
131.”do you have your own favourite contender?”
Well one or two blogs tonight are reporting that Ken Clarke has been putting feelers out to see what kind of cross party support he can expect.
Not sure if Michael Martin wants to retire just yet, but I really do think that we need a change.
129. What a cheerful thought at this time of night. But surely the Democrat electors would find some mechanism for settling on an agreed candidate, and the vast majority would abide by that in order to block the Republicans? And even if they didn’t, the House delegations would?
131.Ta, for the information on the US election turnout.
I vote for a moratorium on assassination speculation - we can’t make a realistic assessment, and it’s the sort of thing that can give betting sites a bad name.
128: is Michael Martin standing down? Otherwise I don’t think there’s a mood to change him - the Tory grumbles of last year have so far as I know died away. A good long-term bet if MM eventually does stand down could be John Bercow, who is now on the Speaker’s Panel (which means he chairs committees - pretty much a precondition for consideration). He’s a scintillating chair - witty, polite, and unpompous - and sufficiently centrist and willing to work across the Chamber to be acceptable to all sides.
138 1st Para - I agree.
2nd Para, 1st Sentence - I don’t!
136. You have a touching belief in human nature (and of Clinton in particular…)
“vast majority” - a small minority voting for Clinton could send it to the House…
“House Delegations would” - at the moment it would take just ONE Democratic congressman to deadlock the House…
140. Well, others want the discussion closed down, so I won’t labour the point. But if Obama is heading for the landslide victory he appears to be it would take more than a handful of votes for Clinton to send it to the House.
138.”128: is Michael Martin standing down? Otherwise I don’t think there’s a mood to change him - the Tory grumbles of last year have so far as I know died away.”
NickP, I pointed out in my later post that there was no indication of Martin standing down. And you are having a laugh with us when you point out there is no mood for change, and the caveat that it was Tory grumblings alone is a wee bit cheeky too.
138. Please note I was not speculating on an assassination, merely outlining the possible consequences, in response to others’ speculation…
142 Indeed and I recall that, despite enjoying the good life, Mrs Martin had made it clear that she very much wished to see her husband retire at the next GE.
Is tonight’s debate again on the Beeb?
130 With vote 538 now calling West Virginia Dem,by 54%-46%,that totes to a 380-158 Obama victory.Night Benedict White + others,I’m absolutely Donald Ducked,so will retire-syanora!!
Just something I’ve been pondering and wondered what others may think.
Could the ugliness of some Republican rallies and Q&A sessions have the opposite effect to what we imagine they will have?
Yes they will be off putting to swing voters but could they also make them think that electing Obama could be divisive for American society and thus opt for McCain for the quiet life since he’s said he doesn’t agree with those sentiments (whilst still having those peoples votes)?
Just a thought.
141. I’d think that through again, but since others find it distasteful, I won’t elaborate…
144.PfP, exactly, I remember typing away about the situation on here with lots of steam coming out of the old keyboard. And my ire was aimed at all the main political parties and their handling of the situation. And as for the media, they were not too impressed either.
Check the out the Beeb’s mainpage, hasn’t it already started? I thought they said 1am our time, which I thought was strange and a bit earlier than normal. Apologies if I have got it wrong.
146. Patrick, why have you defied the media narrative of the last few days and gone from voting Labour - albeit only ‘just’ - to having a completely open mind? The saviour of the world deserves more gratitude from you.
On the subject of the Speaker, I think Menzies Campbell stood last time round and finished nowhere. Just shows how partisan those votes are if such an eminently suitable candidate doesn’t have a prayer, simply because he’s from the third party. It would also have saved the Lib Dems an awful lot of hassle if he’d become Speaker in 2000.
Nikkei down 9.5% on 40 minutes trading.
re The Speaker; isn’t Paddy Cormack determined to get it?
152. “isn’t Paddy Cormack determined to get it?”
Come to think of it, Cormack also stood last time round. Tam Dalyell nominated him, and started his speech with the words - “the person I am nominating is not perfect. He has a tendency towards pomposity.”
With friends like that…
138 If you want to get John Bercow as Speaker, you’ld need to do it before the next General Election. You might get your Labour colleagues to vote for him, but support from the Tory benches would be a bit thin.
Morning Peeps! All ready for the third and final round.
Seem McCain has got to knock him out to draw, but you never know. I’ll have my finger on that Betfair lay button just in case Obama decides to drop his pants and moon the audience.
And even that might not be enough to stop him.
Back soon.
150 “It would also have saved the Lib Dems an awful lot of hassle if he’d become Speaker in 2000.”
You mean without Ming to yield the knife Kennedy might still be around?
154. Bercow would have to be the youngest Speaker since… 1600-and-frozen-to-death, surely?
One day perhaps, but not the next Speaker…
It would be a Jewish first, btw…
151. Whoops.
153.I think that any MP with a real knowledge and love of the Parliamentary process should get it. Wasn’t there a bit of a controversy about the result last time?
156 PtP I’m aware you are taking an active interest in Ladbrokes’ Stop at a Winner market - how do you rate my pick in 130 above? If you don’t which state is your current favourite?
156. That’s one possibility. But if Kennedy had been ousted anyway, Campbell wouldn’t have been available to become leader, so they’d have been spared that. I’m pretty sure they would also have been spared the disaster that is Nick Clegg, as he didn’t have a high enough profile at the time. Off the top of my head, I’m not sure who it would have been instead.
Others names mooted over the years were Alan Hazlehurst, Sir George Young, Richard Shepherd, Alan Beith…
161.Jon Craig was musing about it earlier. Ken Clarke For Speaker?
This bit made me laugh.
“”My Labour spies tell me Ken Clarke is thinking of running for Speaker,” a senior Tory (a veteran of John Major’s government) whispers in my ear, before adding mischievously: “Anything to stuff George!”
The George he is referring to is, of course, George Osborne, the Shadow Chancellor, who some MPs claim has been rather outshone by Ken Clarke, the former Chancellor, during the current economic crisis.”
Now when both Labour luvvies (with impeccable sources), Benedict Brogan and Jon Craig are briefing from Labour sources and getting a dig in at George Osborne, you know that a little old financial melt down is not going to stop a Brownite vendetta.
Now that is one political scalp that Gordon Brown wants…
I didn’t know Hillary would be in the audience. Now if she endorses McCain tonight that should mix things up a bit!
Just over a minute to post time.
158 Despite the poor Tokyo opening, IG’s spread for both London (- 180 points) and Wall Street (- 80 points) have both actually hardened somewhat.
A welcome to the night shift.
Wow, Schieffer might make McCain seem positively middle-aged.
McCain speaks first. There was a market on who would speak first.
168. It’s by coin-toss, isn’t it?
167. I love him. He sounds just like Jimmy Stewart, all Midwestern and folksy. God bless America.
167. Schieffer is 6 months younger than McCain…
151. The Nikkie has trampolined a little in the last few minutes - but is still around 8% down. Not far off another “crash”.
If this again spreads to the FTSE and the DAX etc later on, and thence to the NYSE, we will see tradin g lower than they were at their worst last week - i.e. before Supergordon saved the world.
We may still be heading for such a severe recession it will edge towards the definition of “slump”.
And on that cheerful note, I’m going back to bed. I only got up to see how England did. Thank God for Wayne Rooney and yer man Capello, otherwise we’d all be slitting our wrists.
Nitenite.
Could that be Chris Evans and John Prescott line dancing together on the roof of the conference centre at the top of this thread?
McCain engaging with “That One” tonight.
I’m here for the debate!
170. He’s a Texan..
160 Well, PfP, that reminds me of he tourist who was lost in Ireland. He asked a local the way to Dublin. The local thought about this and replied ‘Well, you shouldn’t really be starting from here.’
What I would do is identify the approximate area where the blue peril is likely to stop and back four or five adjacent options.
At the moment, I’m not sure quite where that area is. Maybe after tonite, I’ll have a better idea.
I like this format a lot better than the others I’ve seen. Some actual back and forth getting started.
172 seanT - pleased to see you have such an intense interest in the result of the England game - it’s only been over for almost five hours!
174 Saw a great T-shirt, StJohn, bearing the legend ‘This One is voting for That One’.
Btw, Obama’s Intrade price went up 3 points to a new high of 83 before this debate started. Very odd.
McCain’s body language towards Obama reminds me of Hillary’s when she debated with Obama. Amusement at the younger man’s “naïve” views.
181. Maybe people taking the value before Obama seals the deal tonight?
First good hit by McCain:-
‘If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run 4 years ago’
181 Very odd - yes, 83 is a prime number I believe.
Nice line there from the Old Boy - ‘You are not running against President Bush. You wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago.’
Neat.
I disagreed with my party more than you disagreed with your party. Who cares?
McCain is sounding a little whinny about the negative campaigning.
Touch of emotion there from McCain!
189. Really? I thought it looked incredibly fake and he just looked like he was moaning.
Peters: that +3 jump seems to be just after the release of the latest Rasmussen polls, although only New Mex (Obama +13) of those was a battleground state.
Seems to be a little bit of an overreaction to that alone, although I guess with that and Iowa (Obama +10%ish) now seemingly sure things Obama only needs one from VA/CO/FL/OH to win outright, or NV (less likely WV) for exactly 269.
Reckon Mccain winning this question handily
Sorry if I missed this earlier, just seen it on the Scottish BBC news page.
Watchdog sorry for bank failings
“Britain’s financial services watchdog has apologised for the failure to spot banking problems which led to the massive government bail-out.
Hector Sants, chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, said it had not done its job adequately.
He said it had not ensured banks were properly protected against risk but he claimed lessons were being learned.
Mr Sants was being quizzed by business leaders at a lunch in Edinburgh, where Scotland’s biggest banks are based”
He went on to add.
”
Page last updated at 18:57 GMT, Wednesday, 15 October 2008 19:57 UK
E-mail this to a friend Printable version
Watchdog sorry for bank failings
By Douglas Fraser
Business and Economy Editor, BBC Scotland
Hector Sants
Hector Sants said the FSA had not done its job adequately
Britain’s financial services watchdog has apologised for the failure to spot banking problems which led to the massive government bail-out.
Hector Sants, chief executive of the Financial Services Authority, said it had not done its job adequately.
He said it had not ensured banks were properly protected against risk but he claimed lessons were being learned.
Mr Sants was being quizzed by business leaders at a lunch in Edinburgh, where Scotland’s biggest banks are based.
The Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS were forced to seek more than £30bn in support from the UK Government earlier this week.
Mr Sants told BBC Scotland: “We have said sorry and I am saying sorry for our supervisory failings. But this now is a global crisis and you have to ask if a national regulator alone could have taken sufficient action to ensure all UK firms survive this crisis untouched - and I doubt it.”
The FSA reviewed its role in the collapse of Northern Rock last year, which led to its nationalisation.
Mr Sants said it found the regulator should have done a better job.
Many people forgot the golden rule: do not sell or buy things you do not understand
Hector Sants
“What is clear is that a number of firms went into this crisis in the summer of 07 with business models that were not able to withstand those extraordinary market conditions.
“People expect the regulator to challenge and engage with directors to make sure they were properly managing those risks, and when we look back on our track record, prior to that summer, we were not doing that to a level I find acceptable.
Mr Sants said none of the FSA staff who had been supervising Northern Rock were still in a supervisory role.
And he admitted the complexity of financial products as they circulated round the global system was not understood by businesses or regulators.
He said: “The question is - did anybody understand the consequences of all the inter-linkages between these products?
“And the answer is that nobody really understood the overall global system and the way it would behave in the circumstances of the past 12 months.”
I think McCain’s doing quite well. Challenging Obama’s campaign very effectively without becoming personal. Obama remaining cool though under fire.
Anyone watching the CNN opinionometer?
Now McCain’s going for it! Ayers and Acorns.
195. “Anyone watching the CNN opinionometer?”
Yes. Why are women always more easily pleased than men?
197 Are we past the watershed?
197. If only this were true
I’ve changed my mind on Schieffer - he’s got some great questions tonight.
McCain living down to his mean mean mean reputation
Now that I’ve said that, men seem to be keener on the eulogising of Sarah Palin.
Did McCain almost say Palin was a ‘breast of fresh air’?
201. Regressing to the mean.
Just a Spoonerism I think: freath of bresh/breast air?
204 - Nice one
197.”Yes. Why are women always more easily pleased than men?”
There are so many answers that I could give you, but seeing as only a man could come up with that simplistic piece of male logic, I will leave you to ponder your question…
Ten years until no more oil to be taken from the Middle East? That’s a big promise.
208. McCain will be dead by then
I can’t watch today’s debate, so thanks to everyone for your reports as it goes along…
Meanwhile, the Nikkei is back into crash territory:
8583.4 (-963.0, -10.10%).
Don’t watch debates - boring.
Report from two days on the road.
Spent a lot of yesterday on Interstates; came off them at Cincinnati, Ohio and crossed the Ohio River into Kentucky and it was amazing!! Massive number of Obama and local Democrat candidate yard signs in the cities and towns of northern Kentucky. Very little sign of McCain signs. Senator Mitch McConnell seemed in big trouble in the north of the state with masses of ‘Ditch Mitch’ signs. Dined last night in a restaurant in Lexington where one of the local Dem candidates was holding a political get-to-know-me meeting. There were between 60 and 80 people at the meeting and not a free seat; lots of yawns whilst the candidate spoke and then lots of smiles and joy during the Q&A session.
Today, through southern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and western Georgia. A long but interesting day.
We drove through hill-billy country in Kentucky and Tennessee; the dirtier and scruffier the property the more likely it was to have McCain yard signs. Bags of rednecks but the count of yard signs actually came out as 50/50. I guess that this means that the Dems must be fired-up as I had pre-supposed that the region would be crazy for McCain.
Georgia was totally different; the rural west of the state was full of Southern Baptist Churches. We saw 1 Obama sign in over a hundred miles. McCain/Palin signs were everywhere; we were in Bible-punching country.
Tomorrow we leave Macon, Ga for our cottage in northern Florida and we meet up with our wealthy Republican friends. Most of them were for Guliani or Romney in the primaries and none of them wanted McCain, indeed they were scathing of him. Can’t wait to hear their excuses for voting Republican this time.
May not have internet access from tomorrow for a week; if I can pass on some observations, I will.
Hope this hasn’t been as boring as the debate; hope you are all well, especially my favourite posters - and they know who they are.
Take care,
Malcolm
Is it my imagination or is this a much more pugnacious McCain than we have seen so far?
My respect for Obama has gone through the roof. Just sitting there taking those smears from McCain - Acorn, Ayles, that Obam’s campaign has been the worst. I would have punched the lights out of McCain. He is one cool guy.
212 - Indeed, but will it help him? The CNN audience meter slumps when either of them make overt attacks on the other.
197. They like men who’re skillful with their tongues
213 - Hear, hear. I felt exactly the same
Anyone call to mind the dignified elegance and optimism of Sidney Poitier and the crusty world weary grittiness of Spencer Treacy in “Guess Whose Coming To Dinner?” watching these two debate?
Apparently Audit Commission has lost £10m to the Icelandic Bank collapse.
According to the Telegraph
The Audit Commission refused to deny that it had up to £10million frozen in Reykjavik. A spokesman said: “We’re putting together a statement for tomorrow. I’m not in a position to confirm anything at the moment.”
The commission website declares that it aims to drive “economy, efficiency and effectiveness in local public services to deliver better outcomes for everyone”.
The disclosure will be a blow to its credibility and will help the defence of councils and other public authorities who argue that their decision to save in Iceland was not irresponsible.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/3206491/Financial-crisis-Oxford-University-and-Audit-Commission-fall-victim-to-banks.html
Shut up about Joe the Plumber already. I understand what he’s trying to do, appeal to the average American, but it’s awful.
214. I think making attacks is like making sausages. It’s not pleasant, but it has a positive effect. Oh, and as a non-American I feel perfectly free in saying f- Joe the Plumber.
220. A positive effect eventually, I meant to say.
http://www.joetheplumber.com/
This guy is going to be busy!
It would be ironic if Joe the Plumber didn’t bother voting after all this.
Onto nominations for the Supreme Court - Joe the Plumber must be in with a chance.
223. I’d usually agree but McCain sounds like he’s flailing around tonight, switching at random from attack to attack.
What is this litmus test he keeps on going on about?
223. If McCain has the slightest idea he’ll have checked Joe is a brass-balled Republican with 2.4 beautiful fair-headed children and a soccer-mom wife.
226. ‘Would you have voted with the majority in Roe vs. Wade?’ The pretence is that the President doesn’t ask the question. In practice, you’ve gotta be kidding me. Of course there’s a litmus test.
The CNN meter is great and it is amazing how any attacks on Obama go down very badly. Just look at the response from women on McCain’s attacks on abortion.
I literally don’t understand how someone can be ‘pro-life’. It’s just against everything I fundamentally believe in.
Intrade and Betfair have both moved Obama’s way. I’m far from sure why but it’s a definite movement.
229. It was slightly unpopular with women but quite popular with men. It’s probably just breaking down on pro-life/pro-choice grounds.
230 - Exactly. McCain is truly repulsive. Ugh.
236. Because every minute that McCain doesn’t embarrass Obama is a minute closer to Obama being President.
Nikkei down 911.9 at lunch (9.55%).
Could be a nailbiter at the end of the day to see if it ends up 10% down.
Meant Mike at 234
239 Obama is rather dull. I suppose in this scenario, Charlie, dull wins.
237. I think CNN’s independent sample is actually quite polarized, with the women pro-Obama and the men pro-McCain.
242. Indeed it does. You say dull, I say steady, and Presidential.
236. Peter. Presumably because McCain has failed to land a knockout blow? They’re in the final round and both have fought well. I would give it narrowly to Obama on points. Obama 8.5/10 and McCain 7.5/10.
Another snooze-fest, ergo another win for Obama.
244 Sure. Good CEO type. Solid, steady, reliable….not likely to pull his pants down and moon at the audience.
I think I give this one hands down to President Obama - McCain is nasty and arrogant - I voted McCain won the debate by mistake on MSNBC poll oops
245 It’s like some of those annoying boxing contests I watched during the Olympics where one guy got ahead and spent most of the last round just running around the ring so the other guy had no chance to land a glove.
Obama’s done enough. He wins, on points.
It’s all over, Obama is next President.
McCain: “we need to make healthcare avoid… affordable”
One thing that McCain hasn’t happened during the campaign and the debates so far, as far as I know, is a significant “senior moment” as predicted by Mike.
FTSE daily changes the last five days:
-1.21%
-8.85%
+8.26%
+3.23%
-7.16%
for a weekly change of -6.57%.
I’m not going to bet which way it’s going today!
‘Good job’
McCain knows it’s over.
252 Presumably you missed ‘…fellow prisoners’, StJohn.
I have to disagree that it was a snooze-fest. At least relative to the other debates, there was a lot more energy, direct challenges between the candidates (not as much as I’d have liked, but still) and excellent moderation.
According to the Mail Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman have had a big stushie over the relaxation of the abortion laws planned for the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill.
The final line in the article is interesting it says
It emerged yesterday that Mr Brown has responded to pressure from Ulster MPs by making it clear that the Government should not support moves to legalise abortion in the Province on the grounds that it would jeopardise the peace process.
Now pardon me for being a bit suspicious but might this be part of the payoff for the DUP supporting Gordon’s 42 day Debacle?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1078046/PM-clashes-deputy-Harman-plans-relax-abortion-laws.html?ITO=1490
255. No I don’t know that one Peter.
258 He meant to say ‘fellow Americans’, and for some reason he said ‘fellow prisoners’. Everybody pretended it didn’t happen.
McCain won the debate, he effectively made Obama sound like a tax and spender, and he also disassociated himself away from Bush far better than previous debates.
Lots of Obots around tonight, with their biased spin.
260. I’m a rational enough Obamabot (that new contraction doesn’t have the same ring to it) to know that I can’t tell by myself who won. We’ll have the insta-polling in less than half an hour, can’t you hold off until then?
OK, so all you guys watching the ‘thingomoters’, who’s giving it to who?
I guess Fox scored it 99/1 to McCain, but what about the rest.
262 - Gosh, only 99-1??
There was so much irony in McCain.
He claimed Obama was running the most negative campaign, yet it was McCain who spent half his time attacking Obama.
He clearly wants to make it an election on character - but the way he attacked and patronised Obama made McCain’s character look particularly nasty.
The say Americans don’t get Irony.
260. I thought most of the posters tonight were actually quite detached about the whole thing (obviously not Charlie). For what it’s worth, the consensus on CNN seems to be that, while McCain started very strongly, he then lost it a bit.
It looks like Joe the plumber is voting for Obama after all:
http://www.ua.org/ua_endorses.asp
265 That was my impression, Red. Not that it matters much. From a punting perspective, the only interest was whether there were any real serious blows landed. There clearly were not. I’ll just wait for the audience responses and then go and find something more interesting to do.
Must be some ironing that needs doing.
CNN
Obama 58
McCain 31
CBS (undecideds)
Obama 53
McCain 22
CNN says Obama won the debate 58% to 31%.
267 I watched my wife Iron, That was more interesting!
Ok Jaz. Go ahead.
CNN insta-poll:
Obama Favourable/Unfavourable: 66%/33%
McCain Favourable/Unfavourable: 49%/49%
Crushing.
237. “I think CNN’s independent sample is actually quite polarized, with the women pro-Obama and the men pro-McCain.”
Quite simple, Obama comes across much better in these televised debates, McCain has one long senior moment in these formats I am afraid.
Are these proper polls or news website internet polls open to anyone?
They’re proper polls, done by calling voters already identified as undecided prior to the debate, I think. You can tell them apart from internet polls by their not being 80+% in favour of a candidate.
273. You mean this? I was watching it on the BBC website so I didn’t catch the split-screen awfulness.
273 Christina
Writing as a senior, Mrs Malc19ken would be ashamed and disgusted if I behaved like Mr McCain. I might be a naughty fellow when posting here but in ‘real life’ I’m the very essence of bonhomie and charm; but don’t tell her I said so or she’d be ashamed and disgusted.
Malcolm
275 thanks for your answer. That’s very reassuring. If Obama doesn’t win my whole life goes down the pan.
278 Hmmm…don’t know about ‘my whole life’ but a considerable chunk of my betting bank does, Johnboy.
Anyway, fun over; Obama won, probably, and is probably going to be the next POTUS. Can start thinking about something else for a change.
Now, isn’t it Cheltenham this weekend…?
277.Malcolm, can’t believe that I stayed up this late, but thought I would try and catch the debate on TV tonight because of the holidays.
I hope I did not offend any senior members of PB.com with my earlier comment, but I just felt that McCain lacks the ability to empathise with voters.
Malcolm is a great Scottish name by the way, not very popular just now in Scotland and losing out to the more popular choice of Callum. But as I always tell my son Malcolm, its a good Scottish Kings name.
re 252. I think McCain’s “senior moment” was choosing Sarah Palin. You know what it is about old men and former beauty queens.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/10/15/community-organiing-group-takes-advantage-ohios-early-voting/comments/
Bless them! These poor Fox News fans suddenly concerned about voter fraud and of course some of them think Obama is closely involved in telling Acorn how to carry out voter fraud!
That the 2000 election was stolen doesn’t concern them. That poor neighbourhoods - in Florida in particular - poor, mostly black areas that would predominantly vote Democrat - had too few voting stations and had to queue for hours or not vote at all doesn’t matter.
That they have a electronic voting machines that have no way of verifying votes - no paper trail - does not concern them.
That the Republicans have blocked legal challenges regarding hundreds of thousands of Americans who cannot vote because their home is foreclosed or is on a list to be foreclosed - again mostly Domocrat voters, does not worry them.
All that matters to them is that they have another stick to beat Obama with, because a few people in Acorn are bent and here is an opportunity to blame it on all Obama.
It could only happen in America!
I didn’t watch the debate but a general point is that polling has shown that whilst people can appear to be very turned off by negative campaigning, it can nevertheless be effective. Questions about who won a debate are meaningless. We should watch voting pattern polls carefully over the next 5-7 days before we can judge who really ‘won’ the debate.
The more I look at this the more I wonder what McCain is offering. Some years ago I thought he was OK, but now?