YouGov marginals poll points to a Tory majority of 110+
September 11th, 2008
There’s a new poll out this afternoon from YouGov which was commissioned by Channel 4 news and which suggests that David Cameron is heading for a three-figure majority.
The poll has been done on a format that I have never seen before - those questioned were limited to 60 key constituencies where Labour is defending majorities of between 6 per cent and 14 per cent. So it’s unlike the standard marginal polls that we have seen in the past where the two parties are much closer.
YouGov’s Peter Kellner writes on the C4 website: “..But if the Tories make inroads into our Battleground Britain seats, then they will be the largest party; and if they scoop the lot, they will have an overall majority (and unseat, among others, Ruth Kelly, the transport secretary, and Tony McNulty, the home office minister).
That would need a swing of 7 per cent. Our poll indicates that the current swing is 12 per cent. Such a swing would give the Tories a majority of around 150 if the election were held this week. One casualty could be Jack Straw, the justice secretary.
Could these seats behave differently, if and when voters realise they live in a key marginal? We asked people later in our survey how they would vote “if you were convinced that the only two parties with a realistic chance of winning in your constituency were Labour or the Conservatives?” Some voters switch from Lib Dem and minor parties, with Labour picking up more than the Conservatives. But the pro-Tory swing is still a sizeable 10.5 per cent, enough to give David Cameron a majority of 110.”
The notion behind this poll makes a lot of sense in the current political climate. Standard polls of marginals don’t add to our understanding at all.
There’ll be a full report on the survey on C4 News at 7pm.
Mike Smithson
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Is this the same Peter Kellner who few days ago was saying that Labour could still win the next election?
1 Good point! I suspect the Tories who rubbished that claim, might not be too silent about this. Poll seems to describe the current postion quite well IMO.
1. No Kevin MacGuire said Kellner said Labour could still win the election.
I hope the Beeb are live for the McNulty result
Is thare any % for each party in these 60 marginals?
1. i think it is possible to analyse one poll whilst still acknowledging that change is possible in future.
1. Labour could win - the election isn’t tomorrow - but as the piece says, there’s a heck of a mountain to climb if they’re to do so.
(From previous thread… this one bears watching for those interested in congressional races this year) Here’s the most amazing poll I’ve seen yet in this election cycle, showing Republicans actually leading Democrats by five points in the generic congressional ballot. If this is anywhere near true, the Democrats might find themselves very disappointed in congressional races across the country. I’m not sure why GOP fortunes for Congress seem to be picking up, but it is an interesting development and bears watching. For comparison, a Harris poll of likely voters taken two weeks before the 2006 mid-terms had Democrats leading the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 33%.
USA Today/Gallup Poll. Sept. 5-7, 2008. N=823 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4. RV = registered voters.
“Now, turning to next year’s congressional elections — If the elections for Congress were being held today, which party’s candidate would you vote for in your congressional district: the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate?” If unsure: “As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic Party’s candidate or the Republican Party’s candidate?” Options rotated.
Democrat 45% Republican 50% Other 6%
In part response to Noisy Summer on the previous thread, may I reiterate the advice given here by Mike and others that if you believe these polls, and think a large Tory majority is on its way, you should sell Labour rather than buy Tory. You then eliminate the significant risk that ‘Others’, notably the SNP, do very well.
OK?
James I still am not sure I understand what you are getting at in the last thread. Can you try again, as it seems an interesting perspective.
1 - His precise words were: “At the time of writing this article the bookies are offering odds of three-to-one against Labour emerging as the largest party at the next general election. If you are persuaded by the above analysis that those are attractive odds, and you bet your mortgage on Labour winning, I must warn you: I offer no guarantees if you end up losing your house.”
Here are the headline figures
Con 45
Lab 32
Lib Dem 13
Other 10
[Excluding Don't Knows and Woudn't Vote]
I think it’s quite funny, watching some sections of the MSM trying *anything* that might make things look a bit less bad for Labour - and failing.
11 That is just in those 60 constituencies with Labour majorities of 6-14%.
And there lies the core of what James is tugging on, I think.
11 -Lib Dem 13. Really?
60 ‘battleground’ seats, and 2,144 voters.
Somebody stop me if I’m wrong, but that is only 36 people in each seat. What a rubbish sample. It means nothing.
4. The figures were 45/32/13 excluding don’t knows and won’t votes.
11.
That’s…not actually that bad for Labour…or am I being an idiot?
Obviously, if the election were tomorrow, it’d be horiffic. But it’s recoverable.
Come on Conference, do the right thing…
11. LD’s needing yellow taxi’s!
55 from previous thread- Be careful about buying the media line that the ‘lipstick on a pig’ incident is merely a trivial distraction and nobody cares about it. Maybe that’s true and maybe it isn’t. But don’t believe ABC News’ spin based on their brief interviews with a few “swing voters” on the street. According to an Angus Reid poll, fully half of American adults believe the media are trying to help elect Obama, while only 11% believe they are trying to help elect McCain:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31737/reporters_are_helping_obama_say_americans/
Given this, most people are likely to take the media’s story that nobody cares about ‘lipstick on a pig’ with a grain of salt, attributing it to the media’s desire to snuff out the story as quickly as possible.
15. Yes, but a ‘regular’ poll is, say, 1200 people spread across 650 constituencies.
14. presumably a disproportionately high number of these are Lab-Con seats?
Can someone confirm - is this 60 seats where Labour have between a 6% and 14% lead *over the Conservatives*, or just generally?
I’m still unconvinced by the sampling of a subset of constituencies that have nothing necessarily in common except the margin of victory on massively variable turnout in 2005.
It’s great for the news cycle (it answers the obvious criticisms of the Crosby Textor poll of the 30 most marginal) but I’m not sure it actually means that much.
It’s not random sampling of voters nationwide, it is a skewed sample of voters with massively different concerns and locations, without a sufficient sample in each constituency or region, and without an obvious means of weighting these groups except by constituency.
17 - These are seats that Labour already holds. It represents a 12% swing, which is pretty humongous.
18 - It’s not surprising that the Lib Dems have a low score, they were already in third in these constituencies, since this is a poll of Labour/Tory marginals.
17. It’s bad for Labour because it was only polling constituencies which Labour won in 2005 with a majority of between 6% and 14%, so it is a turnaround from a 10% lead to a 13% deficit. Brown trouser time.
15 - I don’t think it means nothing, it is a means of taking the political temperature in those seats. It is like saying 1000 people in 650 seats that’s only one and a half people per seat etc
12 Marcus
You, I and the rest of the intelligent world (population: pretty small) know that the only thing than can possibly make things look a bit less bad for Labour is the length of time to the next GE election - about 18 months in my estimation.
Something unexpected may happen, especially with those damn fool scientists messing around with that CERN thing on the France/Switz border.
25 - The interesting question is how you do your sampling in such seats. They presumably are comprised of quite different proportions of voters from the spread across the whole nation.
25 - But 650 seats is the whole.
This is an anomalous subset - had they done majority as number of votes it would have been a different sample, had they excluded extremely low or high turnout the sample would have been different.
I’m not convinced that a selected sub-set tells you anything about the whole, unless that sub-set is deliberately random.
17. Isnt it absolutely horrifc for Labour..given The Conservatives must be as much as 25% plus ahead in safe seats (e.g Henley, Sevenoaks, K&C) then in seats with healthy 2005 Labour majorities you would expect Labour to be much closer. After all on a seat by seat basis there is no electoral advantage for Labour..they would have to recover al of that 13% defecit..
20. and 25. Ok, I retract the flippant ‘nothing’. I’m still sceptical.
given that all of the sample seats are ones where Labour had a lead of at least 6%, this is a dreadful result for our governing party.
The swing is massive and it would take something beyond anything ever achieved in the past to overturn it.
I can’t honestly see a crum of comfort for the Labour candidates in these seats - other than, perhaps, that some might survive because swings are never consistent in all seats.
We are looking at a result that takes out many of the cabinet - and that hasn’t happened for a very, very long time
given that all of the sample seats are ones where Labour had a lead of at least 6%, this is a dreadful result for our governing party.
The swing is massive and it would take something beyond anything ever achieved in the past to overturn it.
I can’t honestly see a crum of comfort for the Labour candidates in these seats - other than, perhaps, that some might survive because swings are never consistent in all seats.
We are looking at a result that takes out many of the cabinet - and that hasn’t happened for a very, very long time
31. 1997!
7. Stars. How many congressional seats are up for grabs? Senate seats too, I suppose? It seem’s to me that the last elections, 2006 which saw the Democrats gain both houses eas the important one. Am I wrong, and could the GOP regain Congress if whwt you say is true?
Lot’s of questions, sorry.
31 - 11 years is not a very, very long time!
Is anyone else getting poll fatigue? Every poll is appalling for Labour, but they won’t hold an election for two years so the polls don’t make any difference. Everyone knows Labour will get shafted, there doesn’t seem to be a poll which can show Labour in anything other than disarray.
22 I don’t have the expertise to comment on the important polling details of something like this but what is clear is that this fits in to the picture created by polls over recent months, by-elections, mayoral election local ections etc etc. Almost all the evidence we have is for a big conservative majority and one much bigger than the spreads suggest. The prime argument against seems to be that no party in the parliamentary position the Conservatives currently are has ever gained such a big majority. I don’t find the history argument anything like as persuasive as all this polling and voting evidence. My money is where my mouth is.
35, You say that as if it were a *bad* thing.
35. but they won’t hold an election for two years
You mean about 20 months surely?
38, Yes, can we please stop saying “two years” when it isn’t?!
I was amused by Brown’s fuel gimmick - people have been on the telly saying it is a load of bollocks all afternoon!
One bloke who ran an insulation company said it is just not physically possible to insulate 9 Million homes before the winter! Good point that! Maybe when Gordon got his felt Tip and Crayons out and started drawing pictures of warm houses, he did not realises that he would have to draw lots of little men to insulate them.
When Brown does not remind me of Adolf Hitler spouting Mein Kampf, I think of Zippy or the aptly named Bungle in Rainbow being the principle occupant of No.10 Downing street. Of the Two Zippy is perhaps the best prospect because at least you could Zip his mouth shut!
Wonder if Brown has ever heard the phrase - If you are in a whole stop digging?!!!!
17. Charlie your still an optimist regarding Labour, I wouldn’t bet on it.
7 cabinet members lost their seats in 1997
Swings such as are indicated in polls such as this one, would suggest a larger cull in 2009/10
That new footage of John McCain limping in 1973 must be worth a few more points in the polls. Just think Obama would have been doing his Coccaine etc at that age - one a war hero the other a drug addict.
14/18 - Actually 13% seems rather high for the Lib Dems. You seem to be forgetting that this is a poll of some of the Lib Dems’ worst seats in the country - it by definition excludes seats where the Lib Dems are first or in most cases second (possibly they have included a couple of seats like Watford).
That new footage of John McCain limping in 1973 must be worth a few more points in the polls. Just think Obama would have been doing his Coccaine etc at that age - one a war hero the other a potential drug addict.
No wonder Obama has stopped spending money in Georgia… a new poll shows him down by 18 points there.
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17445106/detail.html
Mac…46
Obama.44
http://diageohotlinepoll.com/
40/42/44 - Chez Day, where the sun is ALWAYS past the yardarm.
44- Well, much the same could have been said about young George H. W. Bush vs. young Clinton, hero naval aviator vs. dope smoker. These sorts of things are of fairly limited value these days.
36. either that, or the polls are self-reinforcing - a poll taken over a selected subset with unknown sampling and adjustments gives exactly the same results as all the other polls. shock horror.
45. Yes I notice the Montana, and North Dekota have swung heavily to McCain in recent state polls! As I said they would, i expect south dekota has as well. The sudden chang in washington state must be a worry for Obama maybe Palin appeal there?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
27 It would be quite easy to sample correctly, as census data is available by Parliamentary constituency. Basically, the picture is much the same as in nationwide polls.
I’m starting to think Labour’s best option might actually be mass suicide, like the Japanese on Okinawa when the Americans invaded.
Seriously. Where is their conference this year? Is it Brighton? They could hire a fleet of buses, all climb on board, and then just drive the buses off Beachy Head, committing an act of weird crazy communal political seppuku, simply unprecedented in human history. I envisage Jack Straw’s nose smashing into Harriet’s bosom as they all topple in flames down the enormous cliffs, with Ed Miliband literally EXPLODING as he hits the sand.
OK, it would be messy. It would dominate the news cycle for an uncomfortable few days. But it would still be better than the total spanking they are gonna get at the next election.
The 60 seats have an average notional Labour majority over Conservative of 10.36%, so the poll represents a swing of 11.68%, exactly where the running average of national polls has it.
So much for the theory of anti-Labour tactical voting…
47. Yes but Clinton smoked but he did not inhail!
Obama has admited to it!
They did not have images of Bush snr coming back from prison camp, temporarily crippled! Also Obama ain’t no Bill Clinton!!! Wonder if McCain will quote that at Obaam or the ain’t no JFK! In the presidential debates like Benson did to Quayle?
Bush Snr was also incumbant, McCain is not!
BIRD - you’re right, all the polls indicate a big majority, and the spreads probably are being a little cautious. That said, I’m basing that on the general stability of the Tory lead in proper, national voting intention polls. I wouldn’t risk money based on this sort of polling, that is at best innovative and illustrative, but at worst could be quite distortative (if, unlike this time, it happened to give a different result to the national polls)
Alright, I’m done for the day. Good night all.
Some of the idea’s, Like duh, I gotta idea, that some Liberal types in the US media come up with are pretty laughable. Real 1st year university idea’s. Pityfull really:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-feldman/the-winning-frame-has-eme_b_125642.html
49- I felt that one of the Bush campaign’s biggest mistakes in 2000 (and it was really pissing me off at the time) was Bush’s expenditure of millions of dollars in California. It was clearly wasted money that could have been better spent in states like, oh, let’s say Florida. The argument was that it would be demoralizing to the GOP troops to simply ‘give up’ on California, so it was better to pretend to fight for the state by wasting millions of dollars. Obama may also have made this mistake by pouring money into states that wouldn’t really decide the election anyway. Not only is that money now gone, as those states predictably trend to McCain anyway, but this opens up a bad narrative for Obama (e.g., “Obama abandons efforts in State X,” “Obama campaign sees formerly targeted State Y slipping away from them,” etc.).
The seats surveyed are on the last page of this presentation…
http://www.c4news.com/facingthecrunch/Facing%20the%20crunch.html
58 on the last thread. Suppose that a party wins 40% in one election and 30% in the next. It looks as though their support should go down by a quarter in every constituency, because a party can’t get fewer votes than zero in any one seat. In practice, it doesn’t happen like that at all. There will be close to a 10% percentage fall across the board.
55. Yes, I quite agree - Obama has suffered from fuzzy math!
Broxtowe has a Labour majority of 4.7%. So it would not be in this sample. However, the poll suggests the 60 seats safer than Nick Palmer’s would all fall and more besides. On this basis he looks like a lost cause as of now.
51 - I believe that Labour are in Manchester this year, the Conservatives are in Birmingham, the Lib Dems are probably in Harrogate or Eastbourne or somesuch.
60. Can you answer my questions on 34 Stars?
59 - Well yes the Palmer Patented Broxtowe special weapon would need to be very very special indeed to buck this sort of a predicted result!
New film has just been found showing McCain’s release in 1973.
Just shown on BBC News Channel.
Not a mega deal but I would think useful for McCain.
58- We recently saw a poll showing that, in all countries surveyed, the world wants a President Obama rather than a President McCain. However, a new poll also shows that the world outside the U.S. can’t decide who is responsible for the 9/11 attacks: fewer than half attribute them to al Qaeda while, for example, nearly a quarter of Germans believe the U.S. government was behind the attacks!
http://in.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idINIndia-35417520080910
Given this mindset, one has to wonder what it is these people see in Obama that makes them so overwhelmingly in favor of him. I’d love to see a poll of actual REASONS that people around the world support Obama, not merely whether they prefer him or not.
62. Cannot wait for the photographs of Obama off his head!
It would be a real hoot, if Obama had been in a P*rno or something like that and was off his head!
Think McCain might win eveything but DC!
lets not forget its almost a year to the day that we were told “it could be a 1997 style result”. At least one of his predictions turned out to be correct! (arse laughing off)
63. Probably because he is not Bush and they liked his (Obama’s) european tour.Ironically the UK is probably the most rightwing country in europe amung the large countries despite having bearded Socialists in power for 11 years!
59. Anything more than a 1.7% national Tory lead and Broxtowe is an odds-on Tory gain…
67. Rod - are you still predicting a hung parliament ?
64- It’s very hard to imagine the circumstances under which a Democrat could fail to win DC. If any presidential candidate ever manages to win ALL the electoral votes, I’m sure it will be a Democrat.
SaS. The rest of the world see McCain as Dubya Mk II. Enough already !!
69. Even the south?
70- And lots of them apparently believe Bush and/or Israel orchestrated 9/11. That’s why I’d love to see their stated reasons, so I wouldn’t be left to merely surmise…
63 S&S
Any person interested in politics who visits the US will note immediately that the whole political spectrum is to the right of Europe generally; this certainly applies to the UK and probably most other European countries too.
It follows that most ‘lefties’ and quite a few ‘righties’ will auomtically gravitate to your more ‘left-wing’ Party.
I think you need look no further for an explanation.
Incidentally, I think on closer examination, such visitors would learn that left and right don’t actually translate all that well to the US political scene, but that’s another matter and a bit more local knowlege is needed to understand and explain it.
Nuff said for the moment though.
68. Yes, I think there will be a hung parliament, not least because I expect Brown to resign in 2010…
72. What % did the lizards get ?
73 polgies for typos….
71- Sure, a Democrat could conceivably win the South. After all, the Republican candidate still wins most of those states by “only” 10 to 20 points. But the Democrats always win DC by about 70 or so points.
74. 2010 ? Too late by then.
74. And Brown resiging make a hung parliament likely because…?
78- Isn’t that Labour’s best remaining strategy? Hope that Brown can be cajoled to leave on the eve of the 2010 elections and then the replacement rides his/her personal bounce into the election? Is there a better plan?
New Democracy Corps/GQR National and Battleground States poll :
National
McCain 47% .. Obama 46% .. Nader 1% .. Barr 1%
Battleground States
McCain 48% .. Obama 46% .. Nader 0% .. Barr 2%
Note - All sampling 6-8 Sep.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/dcor_091008fq9.pdf
80. It’s what I expect to happen.. If Labour can rise above 30% it’s a hung parliament…
New Insider Advantage Poll for Florida :
McCain 50% .. Obama 42%
Note - McCain 19% AA. Mmhhhhh.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/Ins_Adv_Poll_Position_Florida_General_Election_91108.pdf
82- If Labour could use a new leader to “bounce” themselves into opposition vs. a minority Conservative government, that would be a huge accomplishment in itself! Such a leader could then play the hero who saved the day, rally the Labour troops, and get them off to a good start in fighting back against a hobbled Tory government.
S&S
If it helps, I can tell you why I would prefer Obama and the Democrats to win.
I vividly remember seeing Tricky Dicky campaigning in Union Square, San Francisco, in 1969. I alays thought I would never see a worse US President. Nixon was however competent in hi own way. Bush isn’t. His Iraq adventure is just one example of the way he has undermined confidence in the USA throughout the world and thereby weakened its democratic and secular States. His courting of the more fanatical religous zealots at home in the US has achieved similar results.
Now you may not agree with me, but you cannot dismiss me as the kind of nut that thinks the US, or any organisation other than Al Qaeda, was behind the 9/11 attacks.
Does that help?
I thought DC had no electoral votes anyway though.
80 if jonah Brown resigns and endorses Cameron then Labour do have a chance otherwise forget it……….
Latest Diageo/Hotline Tracker :
McCain 46% .. Obama 44%
80 - would be seen as a deeply cynical move by the electorate, and on current polling Miliband, Straw, Harman, Johnson and anyone else you care to mention is no more popular than GB.
I personally would see it as yet more confirmation that GB should never have become PM if he wimps away from an election fight right at the death, save a sudden deterioration in his health, which I wouldn’t wish on my worst enemy. But given his history with the 1978 Hamilton by-election, the 1992 and 1994 Labour leadership contests, then I wouldn’t rule out one last cowardly act!
I see Ochil & South Perthshire was included in the list of 60 seats - errrrrmmmmm SNP Channel 4? Good case to exclude that one IMO but I guess 60 was a nice round number so I’ll let them off that one - Channel 4 should be praised for carrying out a poll with a new methodology to keep us punters talking.
86 Philip T. DC has 3EV’s.
85- Yes it does, PtP, and I’ve always appreciated your perspective. I know there is a wide array of reasons why people around the world oppose Bush and/or McCain, some of them better than others.
88 Link to D/H tracker - http://diageohotlinepoll.com/
86. It’s had 3 since the XXIIIrd Amendment (1961)…
S&S (again!)
Incidentally, I should add that in no way do I equate Bush with McCain. I have said on this Site elsewhere than I have a lot of respect for McC and wouldn’t be at all downcast at his victory personally. The GOP has a lot to answer for though….imo, of course.
74. Rod you are a weird mixture of smart and deluded.
You really think Brown suddenly resigning three months before the GE, to be replaced by… Milipede or Harperson or Jack Dromey or Chas & Dave… would suddenly switch everything around? Like, how? How does that work?
Really? What’s the clever process at work here that I’m just not getting? Do the voters suddenly see a new prime minister they didn’t vote for, again - conveniently installed JUST in time for the election - and do they turn to each other and say “darling, remember that horrible Labour party led by that awful lying Scottish idiot?
“Yes darling?”
“Well now they’ve suddenly and conveniently replaced him with Chas & Dave, the bearded 80s cockney singing duo, famous for hits such as ‘Gertcha’ and ‘Snooker Loopy’”
“I say, that’s wonderful news, now we can vote for them again!”
“Yes, rather”
How shall I put this. I’m filing this idea under… Deluded.
New PPP poll for Colorado :
McCain 46% .. Obama 47%
Note - All sampling 6/7 Sep.
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Colorado_911.pdf
82 - There are some flaws in your scenario
It doesn’t take into account the rise of the SNP which will see the Labour stranglehold on scottish seats broken.
But more significantly, it ignores the fact that Brown does not have it in his make-up to step aside. I know we spend a lot of energy typing about various scenarios of his departure - but most people seem to agree that he isn’t the sort to walk.
The Labour Party mechanisms mean at least a 6 week campaign to elect a new leader. Any new leader might enjoy a brief bump in the polls but timing that to coincide with the GE campaign is risky.
The only way a new leader will be able to make a lasting impact would be to set out a completely new set of policies and personalities. I cannot see this being possible in the last weeks of a parliament. A change has to happen by the middle of next year for there to be any hope of revival.
Then we have to take note of the effect of the LibDems. They would have to make it clear that how they would approach a hung parliament. There will be waverers who would hate the idea of a vote for the LibDems leading to a coalition with Labour (or the Tories).
The country doesn’t like uncertainty and will vote to ensure that there is a clear winner.
91 Thank you, S&S.
In case it isn’t obvious, I’ve visited your country often, like it very much, and have a natural affection for its citizens. I guess that’s why it pi**es me off when I think it is being badly led.
Couple of threads ago, someone said that the world won’t change if McCain becomes President. I think that’s exactly the point of people who hope that he never gets near the presidency. The world is in a pretty sorry state and something needs to change.
It looks as though, thankfully, it is happening in this country and being British that is more important than anything, were it to happen across the Atlantic as well then at least we could have a relatively clean sheet in rebuilding global alliances and so on.
Looks GE2010 election night will show:
A double decker coach for Labour MP’s (red).
A Train for the Tory Mp’s (Blue).
A small taxi for LD MP’s (yellow).
A single decker coach for the SNP & Plaid.
A padded cell for the DUP (Gordon Brown will be in there as well with his felt tips & Crayons).
Nick Clegg will still remind me of Neil Kinnock!
82. Do you seriously believe that in two years time the British public will be ready to sign up for another 5 years of Labour? People are already sick of Labour. The prospect of waking up in May 2010 to another 5 years of Labour, with the added attraction of Lib-Dem support will fill the vast majority of people with utter dread.
Even if Brown goes, voters will still be keen to punish Labour for inflicting Brown on all of us without ever holding an election. Just because he’s cleared off won’t mean that the majority of people won’t want their say on what Labour have done. Brown. Recession. Tens of billions of public debt, etc….
98- Well, we have had better days! For example, many people here are worried about bank collapses, much like what you’ve dealt with in the UK with Northern Rock. If either Obama or McCain wants to really start talking about addressing something people care about, that would be a good issue…
On that note, the NYT is predictably complaining about McCain’s wolf ad. It is a funny ad, whether you’re outraged by it or not! You can watch it here:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/mccain-ad-the-wolves-are-out-against-palin/
82. Obviously depends on Lib Dem and other percentages. But I would be very surprised indeed if a 10% Conservative lead in the national figures does not result in an overall Conservative majority.
This is based on a detailed examination of the 2005 results and a statistical allocation of the changes in share. If the Conservative share increases overall by 10% (from say 33% to 43%) then the increase will not be 10% in each and every seat.
The share in an inner city seat, for example, where the Conservatives polled 10% in 2005 will not increase to 20%. This means those seats where the Conservative share was 30% to 50% will be the ones where the increase in share will be concentrated.
Furthermore, if the outcome was actually a hung parliament, it would show the boundary distribution was more biased than anyone has suggested. Unless that is there were other significant factors such as the Lib Dems polling very, very much better in their current seats than the national polls are predicting.
101, 97, 95. I never said I expected a new leader to win, merely to help Labour recover enough for there to be a hung parliament..
104. Well a hung parliament implies a Labour government, and the Prime Minister gets the first stab a forming a majority. You think the British people are going to risk that? I don’t.
104. Well a hung parliament implies a Labour government, as the Prime Minister gets the first stab a forming a majority. You think the British people are going to risk that? I don’t.
103. “This means those seats where the Conservative share was 30% to 50% will be the ones where the increase in share will be concentrated.”
Where’s you evidence for this? Today’s poll negates that idea, for example..
35.”Is anyone else getting poll fatigue?”
Sean, this is the start of the Conference season after what is seen as relatively quiet period for polling because of the summer hols.
This poll from C4/YouGov is just the start.
And anyway, I can’t confess to feeling poll fatigue, after the last 15 years of dire polls for my party its nice to be consistently in the lead.
89. The difference this time being that he’s already on the escalator. In the cases you’ve cited, his decision was not to get on in the first place. I think it’s far more likely that he’ll be pushed than will jump. You’re right about 2010 being far too late - it would look desperate and cynical if done for anything other than genuine health reasons, and even they might not be believed.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 48% .. Obama 44%
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
104 - I was looking at the possibility of a hung parliament. I said nothing about a Labour victory - to even achieve a hung parliament means a huge swing back and I don’t see the evidence to support that happening
106. Most of the British people have no idea who their MP is, the marginality of their seat, or how the electoral system works. There’s just millions of largely uninformed decisions on polling days, and the dice will fall where they may…
The Labour conference is indeed in Manchester - as every year, now. The usual galaxy of fringe events to choose from, one of the more striking ones being “Allies or rivals” - a debate on cooperation with the LibDems, with Ming Campbell speaking. Are the LDs doing a similar one at the Tory conference? Or either major party at the LD conference?
On topic - with usual caveats for this type of poll, as Rod says, it looks as though the swing in the semi-marginals is exactly the same as the country as a whole, which goes against a number of theories (superior Tory targeting, incumbency Labour advantage, tactical voting either way). The ‘if you were sure it was a two-horse race’ finding, with a 2% lower swing, in turn goes against the ‘non-Labour voters just want them out’ theory.
FWIW I don’t think that people answering polls are thinking much about local factors at the moment, so the match with the national swing is plausible. I remember a survey by the Times in Broxtowe in 2004 which IIRC was unable to find anyone at all who said they supported Labour - I was much-teased about it here at the time. I’d expect local factors to figure more prominently when people are actually choosing between named candidates, though a 10% national swing would certainly sweep me away.
112- That’s just what I was thinking! Voters aren’t really sophisticated enough to purposefully engineer particular overall outcomes.
107 - People are very resistant to that point, as I found out on the previous thread, when the unholy alliance of ed and SeanT bit my head off. Mind you, I still think you’re wrong about a hung Parliament in 2010.
Does anyone have a list of cabinet ministers that would be under threat from this kind of swing? Going on current boundaries, I reckon its the following, but some boundaries are changing so it won’t be 100% accurate:
Less than 5%
Ruth Kelly, Jacqui Smith
5%-10%
John Hutton, Alistair Darling, Jack Straw, Des Browne
10%-12%
John Denham, James Purnell
12-15%
Geoff Hoon, Shaun Woodward, Ed Balls
15%-20%
Alan Johnson, Douglas Alexander, Hazel Blears
20%+
The rest
So, on this poll, eight under direct threat with three more in severe danger (and I know Ed Balls is one whose constituency is quite dramatically changed), and a further three by no means out of the woods, especially if tactical voting comes into play. Quite a few seem to be in the fortunate position of having a healthy lead and no clear challenger among the other two/three parties.
112. Yes right - tatical voting in 1997, 2001!
People are more aware than you think! Never think the electorate is dumb, they know exactly what they are doing - Almost like an ant colony - the individual has little inflience but as a whole!
! Curtains for Labour!
Parrot not pig?
“Aides traveling with Ms. Palin have reported back to associates that she is a fast study — asking few questions of her policy briefers but quickly repeating back their main points — who already has considerable ease and experience before cameras.”
Seriously? Is this where we are at seven weeks before the election?
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/us/politics/11palin.html?_r=3&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
63-the world wants a President Obama rather than a President McCain.
I am proof this is not so! It should read, “polls show the majority (sic) of the world wants a President Obama”.
Ask them why this is so? Because he’s not Bush? He’s black? He’s from Hawaii? I’ll be surprised if many gave concrete answers.
And rebuilding “global alliances” does not wash. Lest we forget it was Fat Bill and Bomber Blair who first discarded the UN.
116. Look’s as though thing’s are hanging fire.
107. It certainly does not. The Conservative vote ranged from circa 7% in a number of constituencies through to around 60% in the safest. A 10% increase in national share will not translate in the spectrum shifting to a range from 17% to 70%. Indeed some of the low Conservative shares could stay to same or even fall back if there is tactical voting in constituencies where the Conservatives have no hope based on “Anyone but Labour”. Therefore to give a 10% increase overall when in 20% or so of the seats the increase will be much lower, or possibly negative in a number, means than in the rest it will be over 10%.
Labour had a majority in England alone of around 80 seats even though they polled fewer vote. This was because they had a particular concentration of seats where they polled up to the mid 40%s. It is these seats at the top end of the range that will fall if the Conservatives start to approach a 10% lead. And it is by winning in England with a few from Scotland and Wales that will give the overall majority.
regarding DC (my current workplace)
- the district is so dominated by Dems that a special at-large city council is reserved to a “non democrat”. Says it all…
- people are getting more confident of gaining a représentative in the House soon. A bill creating the seat (and “compensating” the gop with a new seat for utah) only failed by a few votes last spring.
120 - Blair has gone (though justice should have seen him go in 2005), Bush is going (and similarly justice should have seen him thrown out in 2004) and Clinton (who suffered with the Lewinsky scandals and impeachment proceedings so he did pay in the end) is long gone.
Blair’s party is about to pay, as long as Bush’s party is about to pay then we will have reached some sort of renewal point.
What chance of an SNP decapitation event and Brown personally losing his seat? Now that would be funny!
118 - ‘aides report that she a fast study’ - which begs the question: what has she been waiting 44 years for? Or was ’studying’ only something she became interested in when the chance to be VP came along?
Meanwhile McCain lies about factcheck! What sort of person lies about a fact checking organisation, knowing that they will be checking what he says?
“A McCain-Palin ad has FactCheck.org calling Obama’s attacks on Palin “absolutely false” and “misleading.” That’s what we said, but it wasn’t about Obama.
Our article criticized anonymous e-mail falsehoods and bogus claims about Palin posted around the Internet. We have no evidence that any of the claims we found to be false came from the Obama campaign.
The McCain-Palin ad also twists a quote from a Wall Street Journal columnist. He said the Obama camp had sent a team to Alaska to “dig into her record and background.” The ad quotes the WSJ as saying the team was sent to “dig dirt.” ”
http://www.newsweek.com/id/158265/output/print
120. I revert again to Labour’s popular vote. Down from 13m+ in 1997, to 10.7m in 2001 to 9.5 in 2005 (I’m recalling these figures offhand, so they may be mildly awry)
Merely extrapolating them on trend takes them down to 8.5m in 2010. Has any party ever achieved power with 8.5m popular votes, in modern British history?
Moreover, I think we all know the trend has worsened for Labour in the last year. So they will likely accrue around 8m votes at the next election, maybe even fewer.
The Tories are gonna win a working majority, unless something MASSIVELY CRAZY happens.
125 - “Update, Sept. 10: Furthermore, the Obama campaign insists that no researchers have been sent to Alaska and that the Journal owes them a correction.”
127- But the Obama campaign refuses to say if they’re employing anyone already on the ground there to root around for dirt. Hmmmmmm…
126. No. Labour’s winning vote last time was the lowest for any party / governing coalition since Labour in 1929 - and they only formed a minority government. The last to win an outright majority with such a small total was the Conservatives in 1924, before the last of the major Reform Acts granted the vote to all women (before 1928 it was restricted to over-30s with property qualifications).
128 - So what? They lied, if they believed something else then they should have said that. They didn’t, they lied, they got found out.
You want Obama to lay down and play nice, I know (Rove said the same in his column today).
You think you and Rove have his best interests at heart?
129 - We must also look at those figures in the light of the number of registered voters at those elections.
Our democracy is suffering due to low turnout - and none of the parties have the answer to this.
130- I don’t care about Rove, but I’m flattered that you place me in the same cadre as one of the greatest political strategists of our time! I’m just letting the folks know “the rest of the story,” which was not disclosed by your post. Obama’s hands aren’t as clean as you’re leading people to believe they are. But if he wants to play dirty, far be it from me to scold him…
Wow! Gordon does democracy! Sort of. Though he’ll probably get more sensible suggestions here than from the PLP.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2078041/browns-got-his-notebook-at-the-ready.thtml
BTW - this £900m insulation thingy - the energy companies have said that there’s no guarantee (meaning it’s a dead certainty) that the cost won’t be defrayed by increasing the gas/electricity bills of customers. It also turns out that the previous energy efficiency programme was run on the same basis - a spokesman said that it put about £38 a year on dual-fuel customer’s bills. Odd that nobody mentioned that before now.
131. Low turnouts are not necessarily a bad sign, though they may be. They can be indicative of an electorate that is relatively content with both the status quo and the other serious options available, or they could be a sign of general disillusionment (and with a diverse electorate, possibly both). They can also the result of an election where the result is assumed to be a foregone conclusion and where there’s seen to be little reason to actively protest one way or another.
On thing I don’t think helps turnout is the tendency towards identikit candidates who are jumped on by the media - and as a result, their own party managers - whenever they say something controversial or contrary to the party line.
Talking about playing dirty I never quite understood why the Obama camp got uppity about him being referred to as Barack Hussein Osama. If that is his name, so it is. If it’s not his name, then clarify it. JFK had no problem with his middle initial, and I am sure JFK is BHO’s “hero”.
If it means he has to spend valuable time denying the Muslim “slurs”, all the better. We’re not voting here for the president of the tiddlywink society, and the Dems always play dirty so fair is fair.
135 - Dog whistle time.
‘Uppity’?
You know what you’re doing, very clearly.
Evening all, what a wonderful poll. But it should be no surprise. AFter all it was a poll of the marginals which created the first Brown trouses moment last year when the marginals poll showed the Tories were up to 10% ahead in most of them and that was before Brown abandoned the GE which never was.
Folks remember that the 2005 English boundaries have been swept away and even without a single changed vote the Tories would pick up around 15 seats and Labour lose around 10.
I would like to see a similar poll on Tory-LibDem marginals as I reckon it would lead Nick Clegg to reach for the vallium and bye bye 20 or so LibDem MPs.
Rod Crosby if you think Gordon Brown will resign you are deluding yourself. He doesn’t believe the economy is heading into recession. His tractor statistics are always correct. The fact that once again he has hijacked a major policy announcement which one of his cabinet colleagues should be fronting clearly shows he truly believes he is an electoral asset and nothing is going to change his mind. He has waited 24 years to become PM so he is going down fighting. As I said this morning, I hope he does lead Labour into the GE so that this country never inflicts another Labour government on itself in my lifetime and I hope to live for at least another 40 odd years!!
131. I don’t think low turnout itself is disastrous, given our voting system you might wonder why so many people actually bother to vote anyway. Apathy bothers me because it means that politicians can do what they want and get away with it, all in the knowledge that middle England is reading Hello or watching the soaps.
New Civitas poll for North Carolina :
McCain 47% .. Obama 44%
Note - Undersample of AA by 3 points and 2004 AA turnout by 7 points.
http://www.nccivitas.org/files/September%20Pres%20CTs.pdf
136-It is clearly a dog whistle, but no more of a dog whistle than screaming about Christian evangelicals/creationsim/etc. If it’s a question about GOTV both sides will be doing their utmost to galvanise their “base”. Like in lova and war, everything is fair. I expect the B”H”O issue to rear its ugly head in the coming weeks.
122. if only those nasty voters would agree with you
I will need to live into my nineties to have any chance of paying off my mortgage given how much Gordon Brown has stolen from my pension fund and everyone else’s!It has fallen 25% in the past 12 months courtesy of Brown’s stewardship of the economy and that is with Standard Life
Re 131. There is a two word answer to low turnouts which we will see at the next general election - Gordon Brown.
My guess is that we could see a shift from the 60% of 2001 and 2005 to nearly 70%.
People turnout when they want change and, as I argued yesterday, much of the new Tory support comes from non-voters from previous elections.
New Insider Advantage Poll for Ohio :
McCain 48% .. Obama 47%
Note - Crosstabs on this poll a mess. Almost certainly wrongly published.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/InsiderAdvantagePollPositionOhioGeneralElectionPoll91108.pdf
140 - The stuff about creationists is people saying what they mean, not hiding behind a dog whistle.
141 - I wasn’t aware that agreeing with the majority on any issue was a pre-requisite! If all that people did was agree with the status quo we’d have no politics and perpetual one party government.
re 140. We will also see the McCain age issue emerge which I think has much more potency than Obama’s ethnic origins.
139-I still think NC, like GA and MT, ND, SD are off the radar now. Not sure where I read it, but the “consensus” (such as it is, and of today) seemed to boil down to NH, PA (poss), MI, OH, WI (maybe), IA (surprise GWB win in 2004 and so only on the lsit for politeness), FL, VA, NM, NV (likely). And CO, which seems to be shaping up as the FL 2000 and OH 2004 of 2008.
Gone is the exciteable talk of a 40 state win for BHO.
I see our sister party in Canada is within shouting distance of overtaking the Liberals:
http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/view/31736/conservatives_ahead_ndp_gaining_in_canada/
Can anyone who knows the Canadian scene better than me comment? I’ve heard that the NDP is quite traditionally socialist. Is there a potential vote (as for the LibDems in England) from people who have voted Liberal before but would vote for them if they thought they could win in their ridings?
144 - Looks like they have the Hispanic and AA figures the wrong way round.
So a swing of 12% in these marginals gives 150 majority,a swing of 7% no overall majority but toires largest party.
The difference is c a 3% swing between back to Labour from Tories before 2010.Sucha swing happened back to the tories from labour between 1995 and 1997.
Ithink that Kellener is right not to rule out a hung parliament what are the odds on this at present?
rogerh
Good advice on this site last night about buying McCain EC votes - in profit already!
In the US Presidential campaign I reckon the Democrats should pay for a film on that bizarre creationism museum in the bible belt which has tableau of children running around with Dinosaurs and then ask the American people if they really want a woman who believes in such nonsense to be a heartbeat away from being CiC.
Also interesting today’s report General Petraus (or however you spell it)that the war in Afghanistan is not going well i.e. the allies are losing. I wonder if that will be reported heavily in the US, especially since Dubya is pulling out 8000 US troops from Iraq to send them there.
149 ukpaul. Yes and likely the two middle age ranges.
The idea that Obama’s campaign isnt looking for dirt on its opponents is complete fantasy.
Of course they are, its standard practice in US presidential elections.
146 - Do you think that will matter so much if Sarah Palin continues her successful start as a vice-presidential candidate?
OT big big issues for Lehman Brothers. It appears they cant find enough cashflow funding
Bill unsurprisingly says Obama will win “handily” :
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080911/ap_on_el_pr/obama_bill_clinton;_ylt=Ar_qtqPEUcVmqHeEYW0J_kOyFz4D
146-Possibly, and I don’t discard the issue. But everyone hopes to be “old” one day, and most people know “old” people. Can the same be said about Black people? I still think it’s the elephant in the room. BUT, I also agree the other unknown is how much having a black man on the ticket will glavanise the black vote, and the trendy youth vote.
138. Low turnout may not be “disastrous” but it is pretty depressing.
On the other hand, if you give people a choice on something really important they WILL show up. Look at the European referendums in France, Holland and Ireland. Much bigger turnouts than expected.
And what was the European elite’s answer to those big turnouts? To ignore the votes, to dismiss them and belittle them, to try and sidestep them with fake rewrites of the Treaty, and finally to make the proles vote again cause they got their vote “wrong”.
Disgusting. Absolutely disgusting. And its even worse in this country: you lot, the British left, you promised a referendum in your manifesto, then you took it away from us, and then you lied about why you did it.
Go jump in a toxic puddle you hideous little stick insect. Labour and the Lib Dems are a noisome bucket of slugs, covered in the Puke of the Nations. You are poisonous hypocrites. You moan about the people’s “apathy” then you treat the people’s votes with arrant disdain. Then you airily wonder why people don’t vote.
I live for the day when every single lefty in Britain is covered in boils and lesions. If there is any justice, that day will come soon.
Would the Lib Dems really prop up Labour at Westminster if the Tories came within, say, 15 seats of a majority?
Channel 4 news hyping up the marginal polls survey. Words like meltdown and incompetence being used. All this speculation about a hung parliament if Brown resigns seems crazy to me. Brown isn’t really the issue - he’s just making it worse! No evidence that Straw or Milliband could make things better… I’ll have a look on Betfair and start offering to lay a hung parliament if there are punters who wish to back it!
152. the trouble with unusual, radical politicians - Thatcher/Bush/Palin - is it’s not always automatically obvious how to deal with them.
Listen to what the focus groups are saying, the concerns people have about Palin and keep ramming home whatever that message is to the voters.
146- The age issue was so potent in 1984 (at that time, Reagan was older than McCain is now) that Mondale used it to pocket both DC and Minnesota!
152-Here in northern Kazakhstan CNN is all about the 7th anniversary of 9/11.
I agree with Mike on turnout. I believe that is one of the stories from the by-elections of the past 3 months. In all of them including David Davis’ H and H, the turnout has far exceeded the expectations of the so called experts and in both Crewe and Glasgow East it has been fairly close to the 2005 turnout and of course in London it was the huge turnout in the outer burghs which pushed Boris into the mayor’s seat.
Talking Scotland, if there is an increase in turnout then that will favour the Tories because in the past decade the Scots Tory vote has more than halved and in many seats the suspicion has been tory supporters have sat on their hands. The Euro elections may, as others have said, act as a clear straw in the wind.
144 As things might change mightily between now and November Jack when are we going to get the ARSE prediction showing
John McCain is the 44th President of the United States
it might only happen once and I don’t want to miss it
160 - If the Tories got that close to an overall majority, in practice the Lib Dems might well not have the opportunity (the Tories would look to cut a deal with the DUP and the SNP, I imagine).
If the Tories were ahead of Labour but needed Lib Dem support to govern, the Lib Dems would be unwise to support Labour in preference to the Tories, but that is very much their default position (cf 1974-79, 1997 and the attitude of most Lib Dem supporters on here).
The Ch4 poll could move the commons seats spreads further?
Note that InTrade seems to be predicting Betfair/Sporting 24 hours in advance at the moment. We saw it last night and may see it again tonight with McCain now 51% on InTrade. Could be a straightforward way of moving positions into profit on the spread markets?
102 It’s a nice ad, S&S. It’s pretty harmless really and well within the bounds of the more knockabout stuff you are bound to get in any normal contest. It did occur to me that it could backfire a little though. I mean, doesn’t the lady shoot wolves from a plane? Maybe these wolves in the ad are relatives looking for revenge?
Or maybe they are just Democrat wolves, parachuted in to nose out the dirt?
All good dirty fun!
166. He’ll probably predict Obama just sneaking it in the EC, albeit McCain winning the popular vote…
160. Won’t happen.
168 I do hope so, London Ricardo!
I’ve been deeply disappointed by the reluctance of Tory punters to back their opinions with hard cash.
148. Nick would you describe yourself as a socialist?
I used to know a fair bit about Canadian Politics as i did a module on it at Univeresity! Alas it seems to have changed since the mid 1990’s! I suppose the Bloc could be described in similar terms then to the SNP now! The bad news for you is your the Tories at the next election here, like they were in 1993! Maybe you and Geoff Hoon on local factors will beat the pincer movement to become the two?
On a serious note do the unemployed get any help? Mind you I suppose Labour would be glad if i froze to death or had no electricity?
Looking at those tracker polls there seems no sign of McCain’s lead/rise falling.
On Monday we were told, wait till mid week (presumably now), then it’s become early next week. When can we expect the race to “settle”, at least before the face-offs?
In any case, it seems the BHO camp has had a wobble. I suspect how the rest of the race pans out depends on how they react to these events. I do not think Palin’s interview on Saturday will have any negative effect on the Reps. If Obama is not careful, he could end up being the Dean of 2008. He too, had great grassroots/youth/internet support and where is he now?
168 London Ricardo - These discrepancies are odd. Does anyone know why they occur?
160. It’d be unlikely, since Tories 15 seats from a majority would still mean Tories about 10 seats ahead of Lab+LibDem combined…
Harrow East going blue by 10000 at the GE would be a truly Enfield Southgate moment and apart from seeing McNulty blown away, the only thing which could make it even better would be hearing Hazel Blears explain how it would be a good result for Labour.
166 kingbongo. Long time no drums !!
…. keeping hail and hearty ?
New ARSE (BUTT) projection Friday afternoon. Mondays result was a tie. Not too sure McCain will edge it tomorrow. Some of the swing states, especially Ohio and Colorado are right on the edge.
160. If the Tories were within 15 seats of an overall majority, the Lib Dems *couldn’t* prop Labour up without other parties as well.
There’ll be 13 or so Northern Ireland MPs (excluding Sinn Fein, who won’t sit), at least a dozen SNP and possibly more than double that, a handful of Plaid and maybe an independent, Green or Respect, so there’ll be an Others block of at least 30 and possibly as many as 50.
I’d say the point at which a Tory administration becomes more likely than a Labour one is with the Tories roughly 15 seats short of Labour. Both the fact that Labour would have been kicked out, and that the Tories would have more votes nationally (and especially in England, to which much of Westminster’s legislation now applies alone), would be the arguments the Lib Dems and others give to vote down a Labour Queen’s Speech, if it goes that far.
Mike I wonder what the chances are now that the first seat to declare at the GE might be a “safe” Labour seat falling to the Tories? The sound of a Tory gain in a city like Sunderland is mouthwatering.
177. the only thing which could make it even better would be hearing Hazel Blears explain how it would be a good result for Labour.
You have gotten our friends being defeated in Sheffield Hallam and Eastleigh.
CK might be in trouble as well due to the SNP surge - they may try decapitating CK!
Welcome to the home of
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UPDATE September 3, 2008 Noon ADT
It has been brought to our attention that there is a COUNTERFEIT SITE now up on the net. This site is a FRAUD and has infringed our copyright. We are presently seeking legal recourse.
Contrary to initial reports, Vice-President candidate Governor Sarah Palin was never a member of our party. We stand corrected. We issued a press release today. It is posted here to those members of the media who did not recieve it.
Todd Palin was registered as a member but never participated in any party activities aside from attending a convention in Wasilla at one time
180-:-)
It’s always apinful waiting for the first Tory win (not gain!). Otherwise may be Putney, but would take Sunderland Central-COnservative WIN any day!!
What evidence is there that Palin has had a bigger positive effect on McCain than Biden has on Obama? The only poll I’ve seen suggested that 35% were more likely to vote Republican because of Palin and 23% less likely. Biden scored 24% to 16%.
So that is +12 compared with +8. Advantage Palin, right? Well, not necessarily. If we believe that Palin is picking up disaffected evangelicals (ie previous non-voters) and putting off the swingers then it might be she has a less positive effect than Biden. According to that poll, it is unlikely she’s having a negative impact.
So is the shift in the polls down to Palin, Obama or McCain?
The LibDems would never support the Tories. They hate us even more than people like Gordon Brown and Harriet Harman do. In Scotland we watched the LibDems prop up an incompetent hopeless Labour administration for 8 years and at the GE they will pay the price. I dont think there will be enough LibDems left to make much difference since any seats they win at the GE they will take from Labour.
177. That sort of result would probably mean Hazel Blears would have to be explained how the loss of her own seat was actually a good result for Labour.
I can forsee a GB departure scenario. We could get to the middle of 2010 with GB’s sanity still (relatively) intact and he realises that his GE prospects are made of fail. We all know he’s not of fond of fights he can’t win so it wouldn’t take Tom Knox to imagine a scenario where GB jacks it in to avoid humiliation. Milliband is fast tracked into the leadership by an abbreviated process. This the labour party remember; they will make up the rules as they go along if necessary. Assuming Milliband is venal enough to accept the hospital pass then this would be a preferable scenario for GB and the labour party in almost every way to GB hanging on and the whole nation doing bile bukkake over him at an election. Why wouldn’t they do this?
175 Could be a number of factors, Richard.
For exaple, I seldom bet on Intrade, because of currency risk, tying up capital and sheer unfamiliarity. You can get your head in a spin playing with a bunch of similar but different accounts. At least on Betfair, I can see where I stand and make (fairly) logical plays.
Intrade sometimes does my head in!
188 Btw, there’s been some serious selling of Obama on Betfair in the past few minutes. Lay price now 1.81.
189. First InTrade, now Betfair… Sporting’s EC spreads next to move?
October Surprise - Could well be the capture or killing of Bin Laden! Apparently Bush has signed papers to go over the Afghan/Pakistan border. Why would he do this now, other than perhaps the new civilian president? Makes you wonder if the US. fianced a campiagn to get Musharraf out?
181 Martin, Charles Kennedy will remain MP for Ross, Skye and Inverness West for as long as he wants. Locally people consider he walks on water and almost everyone in the constituency has met him at some time over the past 25 years. His majority may go down but he will never lose his seat. My seat of Caithness, Sutherland and E Ross however could be a different thing, depending on who the SNP candidate is. John Thurso has been a very good MP but the LibDems are being seen as very arrogant now but the SNP will probably adopt a duff candidate like they did last time with Rob Gibson. It is Inverness where the SNP can realistically expect to beat the LibDems and Labour fall to 4th.
187. Maybe Brown has something lurking outside the public domain? Could that be why he did not want a leadership battle? The skeleton in the cupboard may be fatal to him.
7 - S&S I think Sarah Palin is showing that she has fairly substantial coattails for Republicans down the ticket, perhaps the first VP pick since Thomas Eagleton who has materially altered the race.
Wonderful to hear Poly Toynbee and Tim Razall say Labour are lost
194. It seems evangelicals will only vote for an evangelical candidate. But how many votes will she lose to the Dems? And remember those ones count twice.
193. I would bet my increasing expensive credit crunch inflated mortgage that GB has never done anything remotely interesting or exotic enough to qualify as a skeleton in the closet. A furtive and guilt ridden teenage m@sturbation over Adam Smith’s Theory of Moral Sentiments is as far out there as he as ever gone.
194- You could be right. I’m very surprised to see GOP generic congressional numbers looking so strong and had no expectation that this year would be anything other than another disaster for the GOP in Congress. Even in fairly good years for the GOP in congressional races, it was common for the parties to be essentially tied, or the Democrats a little bit ahead, in the generic ballot. If this is a sign that something is afoot, it is the biggest story that nobody is talking about.
187.My only prediction for the next GE is that Gordon Brown will not feature in it, he will either be openly challenged, quietly pushed or he will step down in the face of an impending defeat. The only question left is the timing of his departure, sooner if he is forced, and later if he goes voluntarily. It will also make the timing of the next GE more certain too.
196- It is interesting to see how much attention the British posters here give to Palin’s religious beliefs. That seems to be a much bigger issue to you than it is to average American voters. Most people here in the U.S. see her as a typical conservative woman, with kids and a lot of energy, and don’t spend too much time dwelling on her perspective on the Bible. If she were a Mormon or some other easily caricatured sect, it would be a different story.
I am now worried that Poly Toynbee’s application for membership of the Cameroons is in the post. She is shooting down every argument of David Hills, Tony Blair’s Chief of Staff
From rcp, but pretty much sums up Biden:
He’s not an albatross, but he certainly hasn’t given Obama a boost. He has brought no balance to the ticket, not in regard to
class, gender, ideology, or anything except longevity in Washington. Worse, unlike Palin, he’s generated no enthusiasm or excitement. Biden has little appeal to the working class voters, especially women, who swarmed to Clinton in the primaries. He lacks the populist streak that Clinton had fashioned for herself. Biden is simply a weaker running mate.
192.”181 Martin, Charles Kennedy will remain MP for Ross, Skye and Inverness West for as long as he wants. Locally people consider he walks on water and almost everyone in the constituency has met him at some time over the past 25 years.”
I agree, he is not only popular in his own constituency, but also elsewhere in the Highlands and North East. I got the same comment from three different people in reaction to him being forced to resign in that first 24 hours, and no disrespect to the area, but it was “but he is from Fort William” as if that explained and made it less of a problem!
Stars and Stripes, we think she is a nutcase as is any creationist. McCain is a nice man but under George W Bush the US has become hated in many parts of Europe and only Obama seems to either recognise that or care. Most people in Britain believe the US has engaged in torture over the past 7 years at your base in Cuba. It is only a matter of time until some Italian or Spanish judge issues an arrest warrant for George W Bush on charges of committing war crimes since it seems to be them who do such things.
196 I don’t get the impression that the Republican base wanted McCain to be an evangelical they would have been satisfied with him being a conservative. The McCain Feingold Act still rankles.
199. I have no issue with what Sarah Palin chooses to believe. I do have an issue with the fact she wants to put such strange beliefs into our education policy.
New Insider Advantage poll for Colorado :
McCain 46% .. Obama 49%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/RCP_PDF/IA_ColoradoGeneralElectionPoll91108.pdf
202 ChrisD do you agree with my view that if the turnout in Scotland increases at the GE it will largely benefit we Tories becuase in the past decade many of our suporters have sat on their hands in the past decade and for us the only way is up
85. Peter - what was Nixon campaigning for in 1969?
148. Nick - the NDP’s best showing at federal level was 44 seats in 1988, incidentally a year in which the Tories were seeking re-election and the Liberals were struggling to get used to opposition. I think they’ll fall just shy of that this time round.
NDP gains in 2004 and 2006 were mainly won (as you suggest) on the back of progressive voters who defected from the Liberals in the Toronto and Vancouver areas - eg. Parkdale-High Park, Trinity-Spadina, Burnaby-New Westminster, and Victoria. The NDP continues to enjoy strength in blue-collar cities such as Hamilton and Windsor, and is well represented in Manitoba and Nova Scotia.
However, the “prairie socialism” in which the NDP was originally founded is scarcely visible at federal level, since the Reform Party and now the Conservatives have replaced the NDP as the dominant force in Saskachewan and Alberta. Quebec may represent the best prospect for NDP advances this time around:
http://www.thestar.com/FederalElection/article/497452
Finally, a bit of NDP trivia: Tommy Douglas, who was the party’s first leader and established Canada’s first state health service programme when he was premier of Saskachewan, is Kiefer Sutherland’s grandfather.
I can’t see the Tories taking any Sunderland seats, it’s more likely their first declaration will be Putney again with a heavily increased majority.
187, 198 - If Brown goes early it might be explained as a health issue relating to a member of his family.
202- It is a bit mysterious that there seemed to be an expectation that Biden would have blue collar appeal. Indeed, he was born in the heart of Pennsylvania steel country, but his persona is not a blue collar one. While his vernacular is a bit saucier than Kerry’s, he does not exude any blue-collar aura. He dresses smartly, he has a haughty demeanor, and it’s tough to see what a blue-collar voter would find in him to identify with. He seems more like a “safe” Cheney type choice but lacking any particular appeal to any identifiable group.
203 the US was none too popular under Clinton, 9/11 wasn’t planned between January and September 2001. There are photos on the internet of protests in the middle east etc where Clinton is the target.
203-Spanish or Italian self-publicising judge? I do, however, look forward to Saint Bill and Saint Tony being arraigned in front of the kangaroo court in The Hague.
199. True, it’s the ‘creationist’ label. Leads most Brits to assume that she’s one of the ‘world created in 4004BC’ mob, which from the searches I’ve done is not the case. Creationism comes in all sorts of flavours and levels of persuasiveness - though as a biologist I’m immune to all of them. Seems her father was a science teacher and showed her fossils and talked about their age, and so far as I can find out she seems to lean towards some variation of the ‘intelligent design’ faction, which believes that complex systems imply a designer, the bunch that Dawkins foamed at the mouth about in ‘The Blind Watchmaker’.
Benedict Brogan is upping his blogging efforts today!
Actually, it’s Miliband who has to make the speech of his life
“We will naturally devote efforts in Manchester to assessing the Prime Minister’s performance. But we should also keep an eye on Mr Miliband. He too has to make the “speech of his life”. He too faces a “make or break moment”. This is his big chance to persuade his party and the public that he is indeed, as his former boss and all the others egging him so desperately hope, the Messiah. He speaks on the Monday, and by tea-time the tricoteuses will have decided whether this guy has got what it takes. Labour conference can be a scary place. So no pressure then.
Dave goes international, almost
“American readers of the weekly Time magazine may yet get a chance to see the latest edition’s cover story on the Tory leader by its well-connected London correspondent Catherine Mayer. But for the moment it’s only appeared in the UK, Europe and the Middle East editions (the Americas and Asia will have to wait to find out more about Dave). In it he’s described as “very posh” and “a tall sleek figure”. The article also tries to pin him down by talking to those who have known him a while, all of whom - funnily enough - are impressed by his ruthlessness, drive, intellect and normality. My colleague Francis Elliot, who has written a vital biography of Mr Cameron, puts it this way: “I’ve come to think that the word that best describes Cameron’s personality is glassy. Smooth, cold, so flawless and polished you forget it’s a barrier - until you try to cross it.” It’s not quite Man of the Year, but we should get used to the idea that the world is preparing for the coming of the next PM.”
69. DC is small though, so you never know what demographic change will wreak.
213- And the first attempt to bring down the WTC occurred under Clinton’s watch, well before GWB’s political career even got started.
According to Baxter, on present polling Sunderland Central would fall to the Tories by around 800 to 1000 votes, enough to ensure a recount would be unlikely. Could you imagine the effect in the Labour camp if Sunderland Central was expected to be the first result declared and the BBC suddenly announced that Labour was asking for a recount there. Brown trousers all round.
203 - Indeed, the standing of the US in the eyes of the world has gone down throughout the Bush presidency. This is very dangerous, as it is splitting the west at a time that it can ill afford such profound divisions, it isn’t just a matter of governments it is a matter of the population of supposed allies. This is partly as a result of the culture divisions, exemplified by the heavily religious population, but it is only one factor.
We need to work together but the US has seemingly wanted to dictate the terms. I fear that, in the near future, this will lead to a more permanent division. In the face of Islamic extremism and the growing power of China then, if we have the US semi-detached, we all become more unsafe.
Maggie is going to have lunch at Number 10 with the Browns on Saturday.
What will they talk about - being ousted maybe
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2008/09/lady-thatcher-r.html
214. “Intelligent design” is not the same as the belief (of the Catholic church among others) that God guided evolution. Proponents of ID have continuously argued that evolution is a fallacy.
214 - Yes, she is an intelligent design proponent.
Another thought: watching the 9/11 coverage yesterday and today reminded me just how well John Kerry actually did to come close to winning in 2004.
Remember that in November 2002 the GOP pulverized the Democrats on a patriotic ticket, and then promptly started a war which resulted in a great deal of “rallying round the flag”. 2004 could have been another Republican bloodbath, but it wasn’t. Kerry maintained the Democrats’ credibility as patriots and paved the way for the 2006 takeback of Congress.
In fact, it’s hard to see how Obama could have become the Democratic nominee if things had gone at all differently in 2004. If Howard Dean had never run for the nomination, then the anti-war Democratic netroots that springboarded Obama’s candidacy would have been a shadow of what it is today. But if Dean or Gephardt or Gore had won the nomination and lost in the general election (which they would have done), Hillary would have been a shoe-in for 2008… the safe, establishment pick. Obama’s candidature is thus profoundly path-dependent.
212. These things are a matter of scale. There’s certainly a lot more angry young Muslims around the world now than in 2000.
207.Easterross, I totally agree with you about an increased turnout benefiting us, but I am not sure it will help either the SNP or the Libdems. I have a feeling that the SNP will fail to step over that cusp they need to seriously make big inroads into Labour’s support at Westminster level, despite the current polls. I think that a higher turnout for a Westminster GE will galvanise and polarise the vote up here.
The SNP want it to be about them and independence referendums etc, I suspect that will not be the voters priority.
To be honest, we are in new territory, and like last years Scottish elections it will be that last few months as the voters minds become more focussed on an up coming GE that will be the time to really watch.
Hey I’ve just watched C4 news, ‘George Bridges?’ the Labour Party and the Libdems should be thoroughly ashamed of themselves, they’re being beaten in the polls by a party that has ‘George Bridges’ in its ranks: What an A**e!
208 So far the Canadian polls have been all over the place with
Con from 36 to 43
Lib from 24 to 28
NDP from 15 to 21
GRE from 7 to 10
BQ. from 6 to 9
The Con 43 and NDP 21 figures look to be outliers .
What I’d like to see is a poll not just of Lib Dem/Tory marginals, but of Lib Dem/Labour marginals.
It’s no wonder the Tory cheerleaders are out in force with this poll, but it’s not even half of the Tory/Labour picture let alone the other party battles.
Hopefully YouGov might do some other polling so we can get a three and four dimensional picture of the battle.
217- That’s certainly true, but it would take time. The District was actually fairly lightly populated, and had no particular political bent, until the government massively upsized during World War II. Once the downsizing happened post-war, large primarily black populations moved in to the housing that had been built. But current demographic trends see more and more whites moving in, and blacks moving out, of the capital city.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/16/AR2007051602840.html
220. Brown is absolutly barking! Nice photo opportunity for the SNP.
What baffles me is Maggie is said by her daughter to have forgotten who her husband was five years ago! She went to No.10 last year and Brown exploited her - does Brown know no shame? She may well be getting to the point where she doesn’t remember much about No.10 or even being PM.
152 re Palin and dinosaurs.
It is not at all clear that Palin is a creationist. Saying creationism might be discussed in schools if the subject came up looks like a politician’s fence-sitting. She has spoken of her father teaching her about evolution, and has declined to label herself a creationist. Certainly Palin did nothing as Governor to force creationism into Alaska’s schools.
But does it matter? President Bush was elected twice. What are Gordon Brown’s views, or Tony Blair’s, on the origins of life?
220.Just reading Carol Thatchers latest book Mike, and in it she mentions that Chequers was her parents favourite home, it will hold a lot of memories for her with Denis.
The ‘Foreign Policy’ people have put together an interesting set of questions that should be asked of Palin if they are ever given the chance to do so. I’d go further, these should be the staple questions for *anyone* who is on the ticket and who may become president.
Some are tough, of course, but this is what people need to know about their candidates. Id be surprised if any candidate would be comfortable answering all of them.
Then again, maybe pigs, babies, lipstick, moose and so on really are the issues which should define who the leader of the West is.
Seriously, can anyone look at these and say that they are not appropriate?
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/node/9741
208 Jack
He appeared, rather unexpectedly, in Union Square (along with a very considerable number of security people!) and saluted the masses from a balcony overlooking the Square. I don’t recall a speech, so he may have been dropping in rather than actually campaigning, whether for himself or somebody else.
I wasn’t that much interested in politics at the time but kind of didn’t like him much anyway. The more my interest in politics grew, the less I liked him. With the benefit of hindsight, I’d say my early instincts were right.
228. No point - LD’s a re bit part players doomed to being the party of the Yellow Taxi come the next election! CH4 news is a serious program for serious issues, they only cover jokes on 1 April each year…………
226. What’s wrong with Bridges, he is intelegent and well turned out - I know you are old Labour Coldstone but what do you expect him to wear? A donkey Jacket, Flairs and a cravate or swear like a trooper when he speaks!
Evening all
Ok, a 110-seat Conservative majority - let’s crunch some numbers. In a 650-seat HoC, that would mean 380 Conservatives and 270 Opposition so a 172-seat gain for the Tories based on electoralcalculus numbers.
How do they get there ? Let’s assume a NET 140-seat loss for Labour and a 32-seat loss for the LDs. The LDs would lose more, perhaps up to 40 from the Tories but would be compensated by a few gains from Labour.
So, that’s 380 for the Tories (I’ve assumed the Tories will be broadly neutral against SNP and PC), 206 for Labour and 37 for the LDs.
Hang on…Stuart Dickson is of the view that Labour will lose 20 seats to the SNP in Scotland so put that into the mix and you get the following
Con 380, Lab 186, LD 37 Others (SNP, PC, Green. BNP, NI) 47
That makes Labour seats look a huge sell. One other thought on the way home - I can’t rule out the possibility that the SNP will be the third party in the HoC.
233-Good set, but on 13, why talk about HIV/AIDS. If you are talking about diseases that kill millions, why not talk about malaria? (for example)
226: ‘…they’re being beaten in the polls by a party that has “George Bridges” in its ranks: What an A**e!’
Yes, I noticed him there as the token Tory while Dave Hill, Ms Toynbee and some Lib Dem bloke all agreed how irredeemably cr*p poor old Cameron was.
220. Is the man a complete moron or is he just seeing how far he can wind up his own supporters for the hell of it?
What sort of thinking goes on behind that invitation? Inviting someone who is the most disliked politician to a large proportion of what remaining Labour supporters there are to lunch with him at his (courtesy) country house, while they’re struggling with increased petrol, energy, tax and food bills. Nicely in touch with his core vote, I don’t think!
221. Never said it was.
Rather believe in The Church of the Flying Spaghetti Monster, myself.
And for sure ID ain’t science.
Still, what people believe is up to them, and since belief in a deity of some sort is more common than not, it shouldn’t be of over-riding importance unless they start muttering about raptures or the like.
237 - Okay, question 21 then!
116
Balls 10-15%, come on you swing voters, you knowit makes sense….
234. Thanks Peter - I was just a bit confused!
I suppose it was Nixon’s home state so he might just have dropped in to San Francisco for a photo op.
As a long time McCain booster, I feel it is right to inform you that I have now sold enough of my McCain holdings to become green on Obama, as well as very very dark green on McCain. It has always been my plan to sell a bit at the point when McCain closed the gap.
I’m now done selling, and this does not imply loss of faith in McCain, but it was time to take profit, as McCain just reached 52 on Intrade.
Now I’m switching focus to state bets.
Maybe Obama will never recover, in which case this was unwise, but I find it more likely that the race will tighten and swing slightly back to Obama at one point or another, before McCain eventually wins.
238. Razzell made me laugh he couldn’t even bring himself to say Cameron was either popular or percieved by the public as good in his job.
Razzell mised something there though - Clegg was not even mentioned! Nick Clegg really has been a Bag of Bollocks as LD leader, Clegg’s leadership is as pointless as Brown’s 10 year insulation plan to save the old this year…………
According to Guido, Gordo wants us to stick a balklon in the cimney to save heat….
http://www.order-order.com/
246 balloon
246 even chimney!!!!!!!
226 Yes, Coldstone, he was a bit of a twerp, but that’s not important. For us political punters, the serious point of the discussion is what it told us about where we should be putting our money.
At the last PB Party, a number of us wrestled with the notion of what was the absolute floor Labour could get down to in terms of number of Commons seats at the next GE. I suggested 150 and met some scepticism. Tonite, 170 was casually suggested. I am reassured.
I have been selling (Labour seats) for a while now down to 234 and wondered if I was not overdoing it. If the YouGov report is right, anybody selling now (at current price 227) could expect a profit of up to 57 points. Whilst a Labour recovery still looks a million miles away, that’s a value bet.
235- Nixon was the author of the funniest bit of political humor I’ve ever seen delivered by a politician, though. Here he is on an old comedy show, Laugh In, where he uses a catch phrase of the day to true comedic effect:
http://www.remixamerica.org/videos/nixon-sock-it-to-me
His very appearance on the show caused a major conflict among left-wingers on the show’s staff, some of whom were afraid that the appearance would boost Nixon’s 1968 presidential campaign by casting him in a likeable light. Maybe they were right!
239. Brown is a strategic genuis! He will probably start talking about Autumn GE’s about the time of the Labour party conference.
I can just see if Brown makes it through as PM to 2010, he calls press conferences and nobody turns up. Brown’s government is like that scene in carry-on up the kyber where they eat a meal whilst been subjected to cannon fire. The only thing is when Brown’s government lifts up the collective kilts, people will not be running but laughing!
236 Evening Stodge.
Your LD figure looks a bit low, but otherwise I reckon you are bang on the money.
236. I agree with your calculations. Note the big drop in Lib Dem seats - surely also a huge sell (currently at 45)? I’m almost worried that the spread markets are so out of line with the polls - but they are moving and closing slowly, Con seats five points up in the last few days and one more point up today.
Palin doesn’t believe that creationism must be a part of the curriculum, which is something I’ve heard people wondering about. She’s basically in favour of it being discussed in class if a child should mention it.
252. Yep - somewhere in the low 40s more likely
Paul Holmes turning on Clegg; Lab Home is a joy to read -
“ferrets in the sack”. Times are good for Tories!
Aren’t these energy proposals just bonkers. Even if it were a good idea for people to insulate their homes a bit better, does anyone seriously think the main target audience will take him up on it? Many of them don’t even claim the benefits that they are entitled to, let alone manage to arrange the builders in!
243 Yes Jack, I’d always assumed he was campaigning but never really thought about it. Since he was already President and there were no major elections on at the time, I guess it was just a photo op. Mighty big turn out though! The air was thick with copters. Quite frightening.
160- very unlikely LDs would back Labour. Anyone see Independent editorial on harman today? Absolutely scathing of cheap class politics. Indy talks about “bottom of thr social pile failing to participate in the economic opportunities”. Sounded like the TORYGRAPH.
220,239 Brown really has lost the plot if he hasn’t noticed taking tea with Mrs Thatcher was a huge mistake last time he did it.
249
I can’t see Labour dropping below 220 despite the polls, the floor is probably about there. That poll giving Labour 32% (although it was not a national poll) was quite good news for them.
Interesting poll. As I was looking through the detail on C4’s website, I very much recognised it. Turns out Blackpool North is on the list, which is where I live. I answered it online on YouGov’s website so I must have given my address at some point! The Lib Dem figure is rubbish either in that it won’t happen or that the Lib Dems just are rubbish at the moment. I voted for them in 2005 but not this time.
First thing my 65 year old handyman said this morning when he heard about the Gordon Brown cavity wall relaunch was which big Labour donor/lender owns a large home insulation company? IF this is how a natural Labour voter reacts, no wonder the Tories are potentially going to wipe Labour out far beyond the marginals.
New Research 2000/DKos poll for Mississippi :
McCain 55% .. Obama 37%
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/11/12269/1910/1017/594955
Re: 252 & 253: I’ve long suggested a 35-40 figure for the LDs as I can’t rule out losses to the SNP as well (perhaps 3-4). To get to 37 (a loss of 30 on Baxter) allows me to offer up to 40 seats to the Conservatives and SNP and a pick up of 8-10 from Labour.
If the Tories are achieving say an 7.5% swing from the LDs (Conservatives +10%, LDs -5%) that’s got to be possible. I haven’t factored in incumbency of course but that’s consistently derided on here.
I see 55% support a, ‘windfall tax.’ The irony is, that the Tories will be taking over at a time, when the voters are moving leftwards, still so is Cameron!
251-Amazing to think this time last year it was all talk about a snap election, not flash-just Gordon, how Kinnockio wanted to grind the Tories into the dust, etc. One year on, it’s all about how Gordon can hang on. How many seats can Labour hang on to, etc.
Other things being equal, Gordon’s demise really can be pinponited to a day and a time: :no election, I did not see opinion polls…
How many weeks to go before this shower eff off?
So, lagging for the poor being funded by the power companies. Very queitly and over an extended period, prices will be adjusted to compensate and we will fund it ourselves via the gift of the leccy bill. And it took him weeks to negotiate this?
Moron, utter moron.
261 If you mean the poll on this thread then it’s not good news for Labour, because it was in seats they won last time, so would be expected to be higher than that.
267 Don’t forget the talk a bit over a year ago about good old Quentin Davies switching sides….
**** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD ****
Is The Great She Elephant Still In The Room ?
255 Yes, London, I think the LD ‘floor’ is easier to define than Labour’s, because of the incumbency effect (they’re hard to oust) and the fact they should be able to poach from Labour. Can’t see them going below 40, so a sell at around 48 isn’t that attractive.
267 - Yes, it’s funny how fast things can change…
250 LOL S&S!
I remember the show well but can’t recall that appearance. He certainly had a deft touch at times. The left vastly underestimated him. Seems to be a recurrent problem of the left in the USA - underestimating the opposition.
265 Well Stodge, you and I are at least the same desert, if not the same tent.
I guess our view of incumbency is the difference.
236 - My advice Stodge is keep your money in your pocket if you’re thinking of backing a 40 Lib Dem seat loss to the Tories. Unless you want to bet with me!
The 40th seat on Well’s Tory target list is Yeovil, just ahead of Twickenham, with Oxford East (not west) next. Martin Day would be pleased as Hallam would go down too.
It’s utterly ludicrous to project a 10+% Labour to Tory swing and assume that it can apply from a different party. As I mentioned on a previous thread even the current spread of 45-48 Lib Dem seats it is difficult to see to how they get that low.
The ground campaign is significant - particularly for the Lib Dems and unless people can make a case for well respected hard working opposition MPs losing to relatively unknown opposition party candidates (and in some cases yet selected candidates) then they should explain how its actually going to happen.
266 The electorate isn’t moving leftwards. Hard economic times generally see electorates move rightwards.
244 Thanks Jan. Always good to know what you are up to.
I’m doing something similar but starting from the happy position of being dark green on both. I’ll be playing ’see-saw’ with them until November now, but basically I want to keep them pretty level. I reckon it could go either way.
284
Really sean, then why is it that the banks seemed to be blamed for the credit crunch etc. What we are facing is a crisis in capitalism, if we weren’t the US government wouldn’t be nationalising the housing market.
Will Cameron be going into the next GE promoting privitization, handing the health service over to private insurance companies etc. I don’t thinks so!
If Blair got into power by convincing everyone he wasn’t a socialist, Cameron will get into power by convincing everyone he is!
Why do 55% of those polled support a windfall tax? In fact I saw one poll that said 67% did.
203. Is she a creationist? It all seems a bit ‘reds under the bed’, because she is a strong believer in christianity does not mean she is a ‘dinosaurs never existed and darwin will burn in hell’ kind of person.
212. Every morning at my primary school in England we would sing hymns, most of which concentrated around how wonderful jesus was, and how god created everything.
Nothing wrong with creationism being discussed in the classroom in religious studies, and evolution in the science department.
221. Which is not much more inplausable then somehow, somewhere, right, this thing happened like, erm we arnt to sure, but erm some inorganic thingies somehow became organic, though the odds are 1 in 1000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
000000000000
against it happening, right, but it did, yeah and erm.
riiiiiggghhht.
It’s downhill from here - this is as good as it gets for Labour.