Canada heads for an October election
August 31st, 2008
Will Canadian Liberals benefit from the Obama buzz?
A guest article by Jack Peterson
This week, the eyes of the free world will shift from Denver, where Morus has been keeping tabs on the Democrats for PB, to the Twin Cities of Minneapolis-St Paul, where John McCain will accept the Republican nomination and try to distance himself from President Bush. However, political punters would be well advised to keep an eye on events a few hundred miles to the north, where Canada stands on the brink of an election call.
Having survived a series of confidence votes, the minority Conservative government of Stephen Harper, in office since February 2006, seems set to dissolve parliament and take its record – of cutting the federal sales tax, taking tough stands against inner-city crime, and extending Canada’s Afghan mission – to the country. Monday 20th October has been mooted as a possible election date.
Liberal leader Stéphane Dion, a francophone former academic, has made notable moves to burnish his party’s centre-left credentials since taking over in December 2006. Last November he launched a poverty plan designed to cut child poverty by 50% over the course of a Liberal government, and this May he outlined proposals for a national carbon tax – taking his case for action on the environment into the Conservative oil heartland of Alberta in an impressive act of political courage (or recklessness).
However, whilst Stephen Harper’s net approval rating of –10% suggests that the government is eminently beatable, Dion’s rating continues to plummet almost as quickly as Gordon Brown’s, reaching –50% in the most recent Angus Reid poll. Overall, the Liberals and Conservatives stand neck-and-neck, with even Stephen Harper predicting that the election will result in another minority government – and few Liberals are confident enough to believe that their party will wrest back power.
The fascinating thing about Canadian politics is that national trends are by themselves an inadequate indicator of party performance, with party fortunes differing widely between regions and provinces – especially when energy and the environment become major campaign issues. Poll data on the excellent Paulitics blog suggests that the Liberals have bolstered their position in their Ontario and Atlantic Canada strongholds since the January 2006 election, making it harder for the Conservatives to win a majority, but have failed to dent the Conservatives’ lead in British Columbia and the Prairies.
In Quebec, the Liberals will look to regain seats from the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Montreal, but the Conservatives are the stronger challengers to the Bloc in most of the rest of the province. To the left of the Liberals, the NDP secured over 17% of the nationwide vote and 29 seats in January 2006, and it will also be interesting to see whether the Green Party’s poll surge in the relatively liberal provinces of Ontario and British Columbia (to 11-12% in each province) can be sustained, and turned into seats on election day under the first-past-the-post voting system.
There is also the Obama factor. Will Dion’s Liberals benefit from having an articulate and charismatic young Democrat make the case for liberalism and an active federal government south of the border? Or will Obama’s star quality make Dion’s scholarly and slightly patrician manner look tired and uninteresting by comparison?
The invaluable Election Prediction Project offers a seat-by-seat breakdown of party prospects, with input from local activists. As far as I know there are no betting markets open on the Canadian political scene at the moment, but it’s worth watching for future developments.
Jack Peterson is a regular poster on PB and will be keeping an eye on Canada as the autumn political season unfolds.
Other useful weblinks:
Canadian politics and the 2006 election from Wikipedia
Detailed 2006 results from CBC and Elections Canada
International opinion polls from Angus Reid and the latest prices from Bestbetting
MessageSpace Advertising
Congratulations Mike! the words fascinating and Canada in the same sentence, gotta be a first.
Hang on! what happened to Pierre Trudeau, did I miss something?
All we need are some markets on this one. there might be a picking or two.
Quite honestly, Canada leaves me cold. No pun intended.
Great article - I was amused by this: Dion’s rating continues to plummet almost as quickly as Gordon Brown’s, reaching –50%
To be honest i think Obama will have nill affect North of the US border.
Those rating’s are interesting, think that should break it for the Canadian Tories - better the devil you know………
Sorry to go off topic so early but I’ve just posted this on the previous thread.
re 291 The critical thing is is whether the mainstream media pick it up. I can see the angle being on how thorough was McCain’s vetting?
Palin’s emergence has been so speedy that it could become a negative for McCain.
Palin, of course, is not the nominee yet and there must just be a chance that she is replaced.
Maybe Ladbrokes should have waited for final confirmation before paying out. The Betfair market is still open and I’ve just laid Palin at 1.01
Blimey I see that the last Canadian election was held on 23rd January - and we worry about people not turning out here in November. Large chunks of the country would have been permanently dark and metres deep in snow.
re 6 Mike you’ve persuaded me and I’ve risked a fiver for the chance of £500.
Lucky old Canada - an October election. Can we have one too? Pretty please?
6. If any main -media pick up and publish this, I can see Palin’s lawer’s issuing lawsuits by the dozen. Is PB covered?
But what if it’s true?
re 6 and another four hundred quid just matched
Not a single seat predicted to change hands in that Election Prediction Project thingy…
I suppose it could change…
The Liberal looks a muppet, with dual citizenship to boot..
Forecast: Tories win seats from the Liberals, Liberals gain some from Bloc..
@10:
Then Sarah Palin is the most inept politician that has ever lived.
Let’s just take it as read that it’s an embarassingly desperate libel from Daily Kos, that has lost all sense of perspective since they smelled the danger that Palin poses to their beloved ball of gas.
Sorry, Mike, but I feel this is just mudraking conjecture that’s really quite pathetic. Just as the Obama muslim smear and the Michelle Obama ‘racial slur’ stories were crude and pathetic ways of attempting to put a negative spin on a candidate the opposing supporters were scared of.
Its impact will be exactly nil. As someone on the previous thread said, are we to really think Palin is so stupid as to have her daughter photographed with her, pregnant, if she wanted to cover this up?
Ridiculous and absurd story and it does no-one any credit to get involved in it IMHO.
If anyone wants to know more about the upcoming election in Canada this website is pretty good for a constituency by constituency guide.
http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_fed/index.php
I would think another Conservative minority is on the cards. I can’t see the Liberals picking up seats in Western Canada whereas the Tories still seem unable to pick up seats in and around Toronto or improve their performance in the Maritimes.
6 Mike, this Palin story was bouncing around in Alaska before the VP pick. Planet sized if, but if there is any truth to this story, then Palin might not be the only one off the ticket. Given the millions he has spent to date on his campaign, I’d be surprised if “Flying Man” Romney hasn’t got a team of the finest PI’s money can buy crawling all over this. I understand he didn’t take the news well!
6,11 That was me! Surely someone said to her: “Right, cards on the table, is there anything and I mean anything about which you need to tell us?” Good spot Mike btw.
6. I just went to bet on palin 1 minute ago, at Betfair but there is now no price on Palin. What gives Mikw?
14. you say the impact will be nil, but 10% of americans do think that obama is a muslim.
People need to pay attention to Canada…it has lots of oil….
One side issue from Hurricane Gustav, apart from the short tern affect on oil is the issue of US enbergy independence and whether, if Gustav does seriously mess up production in the Gulf of Mexico that the debate over drilling in Alaska becomes less conetentious.
By the way where does Congress stand on Alaska drilling at the moment, given both candidates seem to be in favour?
18 There’s currently £3,780 available to sell at 1.02
6.
Your personal views/ political sentiment setting in again! CNN and none of the other main news agencies have mentioned it; I should imagine 24-48 hours would be enough for the newshounds to investigate it and prove it’s validity.
To be honest i think it is pretty sick that a story involving a handicapped child only a few months old and another minor has found it’s way on to the internet.
As you said when Obama failed to pick HRC, Obama does not deserve to win and people putting this out in his name nails that on! Obama’s vision of hope disapates by nut’s on the internet for the most disgusting explotation of children i have ever heard.
re 18 you can now back Palin on Betfair again.
19, And hes ahead in the polls and they woudlnt have voted for him anyway. Impact of the allegation about Obama, nil.
19. Good point.
I still don’t see this as anything but a disgusting smear that isn’t going to get high prominence. And if it does, I don’t think many are going use it to form a highly negative opinion of Palin -I expect most voters will be very turned off what is very much a conspiracy theory that, rather disgustingly, involves a politician’s children.
18 WC Are you sure you’re looking on Betfair’s Republican VP market?
Re 14 I am looking at this solely as a gambler. A little bit of uncertainty has entered the equation and a small punt at an effective 100/1 seems reasonable value,
AVE IT!
27., I cant argue with that. I made a fair amount on the day of Edwards wife announcing she had cancer because I was convinced that there was no way she was going to tell him nto to keep going, never mind what Edwards himself wanted.
Sometimes we bet on misery, but to be honest in this case, I think its more an unlikely than like story and you may have done your money. We shall see though.
C’est la Vie.
Regarding this Palin ‘bombshell’, I think the Daily Kos has been watching too much Desperate Housewives because this is lifted straight from that show. Republican matron Bree Van der Kamp’s 16 year old daughter became pregnant so her mother staged a pregnancy and passed the child off as her own only to be blackmailed over it.
This might be libelling Palin and ABC might want their plotlines back.
I guess the Democrats need something to stop that ‘God sent hurricane’ video blowing up in their faces (as it rightly should).
re 27 people seem to be reluctant to take the £421 which is available to back at 1.01
26. Thanx Peter. This time found the odds, and yes I was looking at the right VP market. But to bet 100 to win 5; that’s not for me.
14 Matt, people said the same about the “Edwards baby” rumours. If he had been the Dems candidate, I reckon that story would be breaking …just…about…NOW! Which would have thrown a huge rock into the election puddle.
This is primarily a betting site (although also a fine meeting place for those who don’t). The art of clever gambling is taking a view in the light of all information. Some of that information will be low grade. But it is better to be aware of it and then weight it in your betting accordingly. Some folks will give it zero credence. Some may want to cover an exposure just in case the smoke leads to fire.
Palin has, for most Americans, been produced like a rabbit out of a hat. They know very little about her. Much of what they do know revolves around her views on a woman’s right and duties in relation to giving birth. As low as this story may be, it is no lower than the swift-boating of Kerry - it is a function of modern US presidential politics. Kerry’s strength - his record for valour in war - was trashed. I don’t know if there was any merit in it. Personally, I think it was done in a despicable way by despicable people. But it probably cost him the election. If you are going to bet on the US election over here (or vote if you are in the US) this stuff is a factor.
You think the whole thing sullies this site. It is a fair position to take. But it is for Mike to close it down as a topic - if he thinks it is gratuitous and irrelevent.
Are these Canadian so-called ‘liberals’ the same ones who include supporters of torture such as Michael Ignatief?
re 33 weathercock you have it the wrong way round. You would lay Palin for £100 meaning that if she is not the nomination you would win your £100, if she is chosen then you’ve lost two quid. Not as good odds as 20 mins ago but still seems worth a punt to me.
i think what we can safely if this was the other way around, the republicans would use this smear very effectly. indeed, look at how bush’s team (now mccain’s team ironically) trashed mccain in 2000 with those slurs in south carolina.
STEPHEN v STÉPHANE
Very clear that Stephen Harper MP & PM calculates that Canadian Tories can win at least another minority and possibly a majority against split opposition, esp. as Stéphane Dion continues to struggle as leader of the Liberals, and the lefty/labour NDP stuggles to find a raison d’etre, along with the Bloc Quebecoise in la belle province (where separatism seems less likely today than in Scotland).
Last week saw item in Globe & Mail that polling was looking good for Conservatives in Quebec, esp. in Quebec City region. Note that last provincial by-elections in Quebec were postive for Tories and negative for both Liberals and BQ.
Shoring up of Grits (Liberals) in Maritimes makes sense to me; they’ve never been Harper’s kind of turf, nor he their kind of Prime Minister. Opposite is true with respect to Prairie Provinces (esp. Alberta) and (to lesser extent) British Columbia (note that many BC provincial liberals including BC Premier Gordon Campbell have strong ties with Harper’s Tories via the old western Reform Party)
What is the dog that didn’t bark in the posting above? ONTARIO
As always, the electors of Canada’s largest and historically predominate province have the power to determine the next government. Question is, how will the use it?
33 I think most of us are looking at the lay side of the market, i.e. at 1.02, laying £50 for an outlay of £1 or multiples thereof.
36. Thanx Chris. I get it now.
off topic but looking at all the predictions for Hurricane Gustav it seems likely it’s going to be as bad as 2005, with a storm surge at New Orleans of over 20 feet and 10 inches of rain just tomorrow alone.
I think you can filter people by whether they are speculating with their moneyt that its true and those, and Ilm sure that includes some on this very site, who are praying that its true.
I think you can filter people by whether they are speculating with their money that its true and those, and I’m sure that includes some on this very site, who are praying that its true.
Palin - it seems that the recent flurry of activity on Betfair has dried up, at least for now.
*Ignatieff*, sorry.
30. American political muckraking is nothing new, but to drag an innocent disabled baby and a 16 year-old girl into it is nauseating in the extreme…
Not only is this libel, but it may be criminal libel in some states of the US, with penalties of up to 20 years in jail.
http://www.dba-oracle.com/oracle_news/news_states_criminal_libel_web_internet.htm
Mike, be very, very careful…
41 Gustav seems to have lost some of its power over Cuba and now some questions whether it will be quite as vicious as feared - something to do with the upper air atmospherics. However there is still very considerable concern for the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port - “the LOOP”. Katrina hit it, but not with full force. There is a very informative piece here:
http://www.economicpopulist.org/?q=content/gustav-eying-gulf-oil-and-loop
“The loss of the LOOP for an extended period means that 13% of America’s oil import and about a third of our refining capacity will go poof overnight. That’s bound to have some impact on gas prices. And Gustav looks like it will have a much more devastating impact on the LOOP than Katrina did.”
And higher gas prices would hit the Republicans hard in November.
As it is, it woudlnt be the first time a grandparent has taken over the parental duties.
If teh story is true, it could go negative or it could play very positive for Palin.
47 MM- Why would this hit the Republicans particularly?
35 Dion defeated Ignatief for leadership of the Liberal Party of Canada.
Canadian “big L” Liberals are historically so-named because they were adherents of classical Manchester Free Trade anti-Corn Laws liberalism. Saw themselves as Whigs upholding the British constititution against Tory tyranny.
After more than a century as Canada’s “natural party of government” the “Liberals” could indeed be more accurately named the “Corporatist Center Party of Canada” or something similar.
47. Hurricanes do lose power while going over land.
49. Because doubtless Obama can turn water into oil.
48 Perhaps the real story is simply that Palin was just feeding her daughter too much of her notorious moose stew! Expect her to be slammed on DailyKos for poor parenting skills!
49 Because fair or not, governing parties get blamed for rising gas prices - just ask Gordon!
34 Mark “As low as this story may be, it is no lower than the swift-boating of Kerry”
It is far lower, due to the girl. Kerry is an adult.
I didn’t like the swiftboating either, although presumably all is forgiven since the chap (Boone Pickens) who paid for it all was in Denver last week being feted by John Kerry and Nancy Pelosi
Today’s Gallup Tracker:
Obama leads 48-42. Was 49-41 yesterday.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/Gallup-Daily-ObamaBiden-Ticket-Leads-Points.aspx
@53:
To me, the real story is how Palin’s selection seems to have elicited a wave of grotesque misogyny from Camp Obama.
Round about now, they must all be confirming Hillaryites’ worst expectations about what kind of people Obama has surrounded himself with.
Interesting how support for the Canadian Conservatives blossomed during the election campaign *itself* in 2006.
It could happen again…
If it doesn’t, and without a strong showing in Ontario, the Conservatives won’t win a majority, but I’d expect a stronger showing in BC, Quebec and maybe a handful of ultra-marginal gains in Ontario. The Liberals probably won’t lose too much ground in the Maritimes and may even make gains in Quebec, so I’d expect modest gains of +10 ridings taking the Conservative government to around 135 seats.
CON MIN government.
I rather agree with Rod and Martin on this. It’s the sort of story like Elvis being alive and 9/11 being a fake which is presumed to be false unless strong evidence appears to the contrary. Even from the betting viewpoint, it surely needs a bit more evidence to be worth considering, and if it’s just wild speculation then as Rod says it’s unpleasant stuff.
Was reading Cherie’s book about the episode with Peter Foster. Apparently, as he got closer to prison his stories got wilder and wilder, capped with the allegation that Tony was the father of Carole Caplin’s child. Even the Mail and News of the World rolled their eyes and ignored it.
The search term “Sarah Palin Rumour” produced 330,000 results on Google.
58 good analysis and in line with Ave it Worldwide projections…………
57 “a wave of grotesque misogyny from Camp Obama.”
Enlighten us, do.
‘Poll: Cowen’s popularity hits new low
- Lisbon ‘No’ support down by eight per cent as 14 per cent now say they are undecided’
“The only encouraging finding for the Government is a perceptible softening in sentiment towards the Lisbon Treaty. The poll has found that if a referendum were to be held again, 44 per cent would vote ‘No’ — a drop of 8 per cent since our last poll four weeks ago; 42 per cent would vote ‘Yes’, a 1 per cent increase since our last poll; while 14 per cent now say they do not know how they would vote, a 7 per cent increase.”
http://www.independent.ie/national-news/poll-cowens-popularity-hits-new-low-1466488.html
Apparently Palin took sides on a ballot when it’s illegal for her to do so. Comment is this:
Gov. Palin recently came out against Alaska ballot measure 4, a clean water initiative. It is illegal for the governor to take sides on a ballot initiative, but she did anyway, breaking the law. Her Department of Resources web site had an information page that was clearly against measure 4, and they were forced to take it down.
Measure 4 was aimed at stopping the huge Pebble mine project, which scientists believe has a very high probability of polluting the watershed that drains into the largest salmon producing river system in the world, Bristol Bay. Palin’s illegal stand against ballot measure 4, and the millions of dollars of misleading advertising by the two foreign mining companies behind the Pebble, who have a terrible track record of pollution, helped the initiative fail in last Tuesday’s election. The Pebble mine, if allowed to proceed, will likely become Alaska’s worst environmental disaster. The scope of this project is just unbelievable. Even the Juneau Empire (owned by a conservative Georgia newspaper chain) came out in favor of last Tuesday’s ballot measure 4.
in response to:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/29/sarah-palin-on-the-enviro_n_122382.html
48 and previous. We should know very soon whether there is any there there with respect to the Palin child/grandchild allegation. Until then wouldn’t touch it with a barge pole.
IF child>grandchild allegations are false (and that’s my personal bet) then it will be to the discredit of blogoshere in general and Daily Kos in particular; plus a small hit against Obama-Biden and a slight win for McCain-Palin. EXCEPT that even the refutation will highlight the untraditional aspects of Gov. Palin’s candidacy. Which in turn could be a good thing for some voters, such as fellow hockey moms and religious conservatives; but a bad thing with many older and/or more traditionalist voters.
IF child>grandchild allegations are true, then there is no good news for the GOP. Because protecting the family will take a back seat to deceiving the voters, first in Alaska and the other 49 states. The coverup is ALWAYS worse than the “crime”.
@62:
You’re not telling me I’m imagining it? That one way or another, all of the panicked smears and attacks the Obama-botherers have unleashed on Palin in the last couple of days have had the foul stench of misogyny about them.
She really brings out Team Obama’s most loathsome characteristics.
48 - I understand what you mean, but I think it would take something of the shine off her.
To be so pro-life, and to be prepared to live your principles, by taking a pregnancy to full term even when you know the child has a serious disability, is something that I’m sure can be respected even by those who are pro-choice.
But, if this gossip (and it is nothing more than that) were true, then it would be a pro-life mother forcing her world view on her daughter, which would have the pro-choice lobby up in arms - “Sarah Palin is anti-choice - and not privately. She is happy to see women forced to have children, even in circumstances of severe disability” or “Sarah Palin believes in abstinence only sex education - how did that work out for Bristol Palin”
I don’t like that two of her children have been dragged into this, and I wish they hadn’t been, but this is much more serious that the Troopergate thing, which I think has been overblown, and sadly could have a huge impact on the effectiveness of McCain’s choice - true or not.
56. so no real immediate big bounce for the palin selection then?
Hands up, who hopes its true?
And for gods sake some people have the balls to admit it.
“The search term “Sarah Palin Rumour” produced 330,000 results on Google.”
“Dirty European Socialist” yields some 6,600. Terrifying, isn’t it?
@69:
I’m guessing ukpaul.
67. Is it her forcing anything though? Again we don’t know.
@70:
And a search for Obama Muslim returns 8.9 million results. So?
70. Obama is a muslim elicits over 200 000
71 - I think you should withdraw that immediately.
59. It’s a lot worse than that, Nick. It is the malicious sexual defamation of a minor, which, as I said, could well be CRIMINAL libel…
*DO NOT TOUCH*
@75:
Oh, I forgot. He doesn’t approve of “going negative” does he?
71. I’d let people speak for themselves.
Today’s Rasmussen:
Obama leads 49-46. Was 49-45 yesterday.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/general_election_match_up_history
I hope it’s true, and I also hope that somewhere there’s film of her saying the universe is only 6000 years old and Harry Potter is satanist propaganda. I can dream, can’t I?
@80:
I hope it’s all true. The baby, the whitey tape, the birth certificate, neither Obama nor McCain being eligible, Joe Biden being a lizard, the lot…
It will make an interesting race.
Another and better look at S. Palin:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26462569
69 I simply can’t believe that anyone would be THAT ambitious that they would (a) do it in the first place (risking that as an elected official this might come out) and (b) would risk the far higher likelihood of it coming out in the glare of the office of VP.
Or rather, I’d rather not believe that somebody could be that self-centred.
That said, there are some odd elements to this story that has kept it alive. Why did she travel over 10 hours on commercial flights back to Alaska after her waters broke? Then travel a further 45 minutes to a minor hospital, rather than the specialist one in Anchorage? I guess a short staetment from her could clear the air - but that would give it far more publicity. I wonder just how many Americans have even picked upon it being aired yet?
77 - Some time ago, when others noted your propensity to braying arrogance in argument, you had the insight to realise that this was counter-productive, that no offence was intended, and proferred some muted kind of apology. We’re there again.
re 69 I have no feelings either way if it’s true or not. I don’t know the woman, but I will win £500 if she’s not the candidate so will be happy.
Yokel your concern for her seems at odds with your views that Barry George should top himself because that’s all he’s goof for.
69 - I’m a strong Obama-Biden supporter who certainly hopes that the rumor/allegation re: Sarah Palin are NOT true. That would be a personal tragedy, a family tragedy, plus a tragedy for the state of Alaska and American politics.
And will say again I do NOT believe the rumor/allegation. And won’t believe it unless & until there is HARD evidence.
re 83 two words to that - “Mark Oaten”
66. Oh yeah, like there would have been absolutely no mysogyny at all from the GOP if Hilary had been on the ticket?
68 “so no real immediate big bounce for the palin selection then?”"
That must concern the McCain camp. They have now played their joker…and it hasn’t got their man close enough.
Has the Republican Convention officially been postponed, btw?
89. from what i’ve read it won’t be postponed whatever happens, but it might be scaled back to the extent you get mccain giving his speech via satellite. from the point of view of him getting a bounce from the convention its going to hurt him isn’t it?
If true, surely it reflects nothing but credit on Palin?
90. Depends. People might like the approach.
83 - Alaska woman are pretty tough bunch. With plenty of attitude to boot. Including belief they can do it all: run the state, travel the world and give birth, it’s all in a good day’s work for a Chrisitian superwoman!
86. SSI tell how would they get hard evidence?
It seems to me to get such evidence would require some sort of legal move would it not and take months to achieve?
… and I know some people might call me sensitive over the ‘mud-slinging’, but I do *not* like this level of mud-slinging. There are a lot more negative attacks that can be made on the Palin and McCain campaign than these conspiracy theories that drag innocent kids into the spotlight.
I thought the Obama campaign was supposed to be all about a positive movement from change, away from the ‘old’, cynical politics? Do Obama’s supporters still practice that?
90, 89; certainly there has been a bounce; Zogby had McCain up two on Obama (forget Jack W’s voodoo polls with Barr and Nader and look at the headline numbers) and Scott Ramussen said Palin had trodden all over the bounce Obama should have gotten from his speech (muted it was his quote, I think).
You will see from the following Horowits piece, how the liberals and left cant stand the thought of Palin. It literaly makes them vomit.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/norman-horowitz/sarah-palin_b_122794.html
From the police reports of the Palin daughter’s road accident in September, if she WERE to have been attending a doctor at that time, it could only be Dr Robert C Myers MD of Wasilla AK, whose office happens to be next to the junction the police reported the car accident was located near. Guess Dr Myers’ phone is going to be red-hot with the National Enquirer etc?
Keep in mind that the Labor Day weekend seriously messes with the national polling as well as campaign communications by and via the media.
Indeed, appears that GOP masterminds may not have accounted for this rather predictable factor in their own strategizing & planning for their national convention viz-a-viz the Democratic convention schedule.
And they certainly didn’t plan for Gustav.
Actually, believe GOP and McCain are making a BIG mistake by going into a tizzy over the new huricane.
–is stark and timely reminder of Bush Republican historic incompentence re: Katrina
–gives the appearence of over reacting yet again to a crisis; when it would make more sense and be more of a confidence builder if Republicans went about their business on behalf of the nation, but took stong action as a connvention on behalf of Gustav vicims, for example raising beau coup dollars for relief, and releasing the entire Louisiana delegation to return home to help as volunteers.
91 Credit with some, perhaps. But if I tried to claim someone else’s child was actually mine, presumably that would involve fun and games on the Birth Certificate that might not be wholly within the criminal law? It might have been done with the best of intentions - but what if the reason were that it would otherwise be politically damaging to my career? Not sure where the “credit” would be for me in that.
97 So far not a peep from main-media on the Palin story.
94.We don’t need hard evidence! Just a little bit of common sense, and a basic knowledge of obstetrics would blow these stupid rumours out of the water.
96 test. I include Barr and Nader in the published polls as they will be on the ballot. Remember Florida 2000 !!
101.. Except for this piece:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lee-stranahan/why-dailykos-embraced-the_b_122790.html
99-Damned if they do & damned if they don’t aye re conf.
Financier O/T 270. Excellent analysis, this should be a thread on its own. A Conservative manifesto along these lines, with a clear exposition of the disastrous Labour performance that has led to it, would be ideal and might eventually get us out of the mess we are in. Would it win or lose the election for the Conservatives?If it loses, the country loses.William Hague would understand, hopefully he is thinking along the same lines.
102 - think you make a very good point. Personally as single guy am far from qualified to render a judgement. But clearly there are plenty of woman (and fathers) out there who have a much better frame of reference.
104 - among other things Sranahan notes that”The whole story is based on an insulting view of fundamentalist Christians; that they’d be so freaked out by a teenage pregnancy that they’d have the Governor — the most highly visible and public women in the small fishbowl of Alaska — fake a pregnancy to cover up the sins her of daughter”.
Can testify that strong religious conservative women in this day and age are more likely to embrace an erring daughter and publically support than to try to hide her sin as in days of old. And anyone who has seen an episode of “Northern Exposure” can appreciate the difficulties of maintaining such a charade up in America’s Last Frontier . . . even if you weren’t the Governor.
102. I think you misinterpret the reason why I asked that question.
My point is that there is little point the media or Democrats pursuing these stupid rumours (I would go further in my condemnation of them) because they ain’t going to be able to prove anything without portraying themselves in a really distasteful light.
I’m an Obama supporter, who also likes McCain, and thinks Palin was a wonderful pick. I would be very sorry indeed if what is malicious gossip at the moment turned out to be true.
I think the pro-choice lobby (and the pro-life lobby too) can be awfully immature and hate-filled. There is something utterly admirable about someone who has a belief (in this case, that abortion is wrong even when the child has a serious disability) and is prepared to endure such hardship because they feel that such a path is virtuous. I think that would confound the pro-choicers who think that people are only pro-life because they’ve never had to face such a difficult decision, or because the hate women. And I speak as someone who believes it would be utterly wrong to overturn Roe vs Wade, in spite of my moral opposition to abortion.
If the child is not hers, then look at this morally, not politically, to begin with. The pro-choice lobby would see it as forcing a young woman to go full-term with a fetus with Down’s. But on a personal level (and I reckon that it is likely that her daughter is/was pro-life as well) being prepared to take responsibility for your daughter’s child to save her what would be extraordinary shame from her community (I think it too cynical to think Palin did this for political reasons) takes a degree of virtue as well, in spite of being politically difficult.
Beyond the lie (which I can forgive when it is something this difficult, and is about her daughter, not about her) I wouldn’t actually think worse of Palin for this, though I think it would end her chances of the Vice Presidency - this could be a Thomas Eagleton moment.
Palin Rumor - look to the Anchorage Daily News to get to the bottom of this story, one way or another.
104 - The Huffington Post story is written by Lee Stranahan. Many won’t recognise the name, except that he was banned from Daily Kos (you normally have to claim 9/11 was an inside job to get banned) for insisting (heavily insisting) that the John Edwards story was true.
To his credit, plenty of Kossacks thought he was vindicated and owed an apology after Edwards admitted it - at the time he was accused of being a troll. Even though he was a progressive blogger, he had no track history of posting diaries on Kos before he raised the Edwards’ affair.
A good blogger - I always found him convincing, though I didn’t believe the Edwards thing until it was admitted either.
Why do you have to be a “liberal” or “lefty” to be pretty put off by Palin. I can’t imagine too much of the UK right think much of her either!
109-have you thought about a career in Amateur Dramatics- you are so far up yourself it is unbelievable-such pseudo intellectualism is so false-Are you the second coming.
Anyone wishing to bet against Palin becoming GOP VP nominee at 50-1, might instead wish to consider backing either Romney or Pawlenty, both priced at 200-1.
113 - another fan…*sigh*.
‘David’ I thought you were Palin’s biggest fan - why aren’t you pleased that I’m writing nice things about her? I’m saying whether true or not, I think she’s a good person, even if this destroyed her chances, and I hope it won’t.
All other accusations: guilty as charged (you’ve not seen the worst of it)
MODERATED
114 - If (and it’s a huge if) Palin was dropped, McCain would surely have to choose a woman, wouldn’t he? He couldn’t relent on the historic step of putting a woman on the GOP ticket for the first time, surely?
117 - The point of that was to say Bailey hutchinson is about 150-1, and Rice must be longer odds. That is the value bet if you think Palin will be dropped, rather than laying her or betting on the men.
There are markets on this election. Intrade.com has markets on the party with the most seats. http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=426590&z=1220207114109
Cons last price is 65.
115-I’m glad you agree with me-yes very pro Palin but your last paragraph was so over the top-i’m surprised you are’nt on the Messiah’s payroll.
117 In that case, Kay Bailey Hutchison is 100-1, they then go 170-1 the field.
See what’s been started, Mike? @116, for instance.
For the good name of PB.C (if nothing else), suggest you close this down NOW….
Only comments about the betting aspects caused by the possible uncertainty will be allowed from now on
116. Do these people know nothing about photoshop and other digital aids to alter perception and call a lie the truth?
Wasn’t it Goebbles who said: The bigger the lie, the more it will be beleived?
119 - I’m sorry! My online persona gets to be (even) more bumptious than I could ever get away with in person. What can I say? I heard the guy speaking in person - even if you have doubts about him (and I do) the rhetoric is infectious!
I don’t think I’m on bad terms with anyone else on the site, and I would hate us to be. Truce?
121 - It’s difficult Rod, because this is such a potentially massive story. But I do take your point - kids should be off limits, so I’m happy to drop this if others are?
96. zogby is rubbish though
The Times now running the story
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4647965.ece
Chris A
You show me where I’ve shown sympathy for Palin.
126. “utterly unfounded internet rumours” their learned friends have made sure they stress….
So should you….
124-Truce accepted with one aside-Hitler’s rhetoric was infectious too.
From the last photo in the Kos article, it’s NOT true.
Photo as at March 2008 (when the allegation would have it that the girl was 7 months pregnant) is pretty much equal “bump-wise” to the photo of her in “late 2007″ (so at least 5 months earlier) and is not that of a heavily pregnant teenager.
It is that of a teenage girl, with a very slight inclination towards a little chubbiness (see cheeks) who is due on. Both times.
I wouldn’t risk ANY money on this rumour being true - it’s patently not.
99 Sorry. Disagree.
I’m certain that we both hope Gustav blows itself out. Job done.
If on the other hand it hits NO or anywhere near and the new super improved arrangements save the day it will be a massive coup for both the GOP and NO’s excellent ‘no sh*t’ mayor.
“They’ve learnt” “They’ve changed” “They were prepared” can only
be GOP+
Especially with GWB on the front line and having to ‘unavoidably’ mis or be lat for the convention.
I think the undergroud might suggest that there is some ramping going on.
Rumours dont have to be true of course for ramping to succeed and any allegation of ramping would of course be like this story, merely a rumour.
132. underground? I meant ungenerous.
Sky: GOP to hold news conference at 9pm (GMT?) on changes to the Convention….
129 - Good! (on the aside…so I’ve heard, but slight shame about the content…)
The rumour is almost certainly untrue. But if it is true, it is to the credit of Palin that she moved to protect her daughter and the child, and that is how it will be seen by her constituency.
Now, perhaps Palin may in any case decide this game is too rough for her and pull out to protect her family but I’d want a sight longer than 50/1.
Think about the rumours — some true, some absurd — that swirled around Clinton and Bush. They still won (twice). Obama remains favourite for 2008.
Oh gawd.
I go away for a few hours, and I come back an The Internets have gone shocking.
On Canada - I expect another Tory minority government, although perhaps with a few more seats than last time. Dion is not an effective opposition leader, and Harper ran a very savvy campaign last time around.
138. Harper has good hair, the type of a middle aged day time TV soap opera actor.
Overall I think its always a plus in politics.
Hmm, do betfair do by-elections? Nothing up for Glenrothes as yet.
OT — are we expecting a 9/11 anniversary effect?
from last thread, here is Stanislav’s take on Gordon Brown. I found it a good read. Hat tip morus.
http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/showthread.php?t=715470
70.
The Obama rumour *has Results 1 - 10 of about 1,480,000 for barack Obama Rumour.*
Don’t forget there was a RUMOUR that Palin would be VP the other day adding to the hits.
Think those who believe it have been had - Indeed a simple birth certificate will show this is cobblers. Inlike the situation where a man fathers a child, bit difficult not to identify where a child comes from at birth!
Those who munger this rumour are mad - not a thing on it in the US media - I have tried cable networks, leftwing press (New york Times) and all sorts of stuff nothing in the US!
There are 4 entries for ‘Ave it 08′ on google!
138. The most interesting thing in a parliamentry system about Canada is the Liberal leaders popularity -50 vs. the Canadian PM’s -10%. I should imagine this will benifit the Tories as the devil you know is always preferable to the one you do not! Quite possibly a case of differentiated turnout!
143. Inlike = Unlike
Results 1 - 10 of about 7,500,000 for Ave it 07.
Yous is famous Ave it
131 - You make some good points. BUT you characterisation of Mayor Naguin in NOT one of them. It’s a sign of the extreme shellshock of what remains of the New Orleans electorate that they re-elected him. Whereas statewide Louisiana voters ran off fellow incompentent Gov. Blanco. While on the national level voter would rather have a rancid pigskin on a stick than another week of W and the Cheney Adminstration beyond the constitutionally-required minimum.
Contrast the way that the Neo-Cons including McCain always do the Chicken Little act in the midst of any crisis, to the British response to IRA bombings. Remember being in London on the tube and hearing announcments (funny how quality of squawk box always improves at such times!) that various parts of the underground, department stores, etc where temporarily out of service.
USA is a big country. We have at least a disaster a day. Going about our business does NOT mean that we are callous to our suffering fellow Americans. Far from it, its the best way to honor them and raise the wherewithall to give them a helping hand. Just like we hope they will do for us if (or rather when) needed.
But points you raise do show this cuts more than one way depending on audiences, messages and ravages.
And with you 1000.07% in hoping that Gustav peters out. Unfortunately, it’s following classic track of killer storms such as Betsy and Katrina. But believe right not Gustav is slower that Katrina, meaning there’s greater chance of deflection left (west) or right (east) of current tracking.
IF storm goes left (west) then believe it is greater threat to oil patch, both off and on-shore. In addition to the direct blow to low-lying parishes of south-central LA would put Gustav’s dangerous northeast quadrant (dangerous because the most powerful winds and hardest rains) right over New Orleans, its burbs and the River Parishes.
IF storm goes right (east) then bad news for either/both Buloxi, Gulfport and the Mississippi Gulf Coast and/or Mobile and surround parts of south Alabama.
147, famous, but SO last year:p
143 - In fairness, whilst I agree the rumour is nonsense, a birth certificate would sadly not prove anything. Like the “whitey” tape, it is particularly unpleasant as there is very little the target can do.
This will almost certainly blow over. Palin’s bigger concern is that the trooper firing business will roll on and it appears her “principled” stance on the Bridge to Nowhere was rather different last year.
Palin rumour: obviously untrue (and criminal libel). Certain to rebound.
Cui Bono.
AVE IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
151 - Rebound on who though? Like the “whitey” tapes it almost certainly has nothing to do with the opposing campaign. It is a malicious internet rumour spread by nobodies with nothing better to do - and a few people will believe it I’m afraid.
SAVE THE BABY
In the space of hardly 24 hours, the youngest member of the Palin clan has become more politically prominent (in some circles) than John-John and Baby Ruth combined. Hard not to deplore this, unless of course you happen to be a press baron or blogmaster.
My heart hates these rumors. I oppose Sarah Palin’s partisan and ideological politics. But I like the cut of her jib plus the fact she and Obama together represent both the Last Glass Ceiling AND the Final Frontier.
My head tells me that, unless the management of the McCain campaign are not a pack of blithering idiots, they will have been hip to the rumor/allegation that son>grandson. And gotten to the bottom of it. Meaning that Gov. Palin passed that particular test with flying colors.
PROVIDED of course the criminally moronic incompetence that has rotted out the Cheney Administration and turned W into a punchline for the rest of human history has NOT affected Team McCain.
But my real reliance, is upon the good sense and basic values of Gov. Palin. Plus the thinness of the gruel that is passing for evidence so far.
Also put my reliance on the Anchorage Daily News. Which as Sen. Stevens call testify has a certain reputation for ferreting out the inconvenient truths of Alaska politics.
152. AVE IT for ever!
52 - for once, I concur with PB’s Poet Laureate
Credit crunch will lead to crime wave: Home Office warns Downing Street
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/lawandorder/2657335/Credit-crunch-could-lead-to-crime-wave-Home-Office-warns-Downing-Street.html
Yes my car Window and Sat-Nav were a leading indicator of this!
Oh Ancient Jacobite and Yokel, and other historically minded and crotchety-dispositioned PBers, just occured to me that the Sarah Palin rumor is but an echo of the allegation that the youngest son of James II was actually not his issue but instead had been smuggled into the Queen’s bedchamber in a warming pan.
The Palin rumour is ridiculous! She is Governor of the state and couldn’t have possibly have faked a pregnancy (or covered up her daughter’s). I’m quite sure a nurse, doctor or receptionist would have sold the story before now. And there is no way she would have accepted the McCain veep offer knowing the increased public scrutiny she would have been under.
However, I’ve also laid Palin (10 to win 1000) just in case it is true.
157. *sigh.* This is getting more and more depressing every single day.
Can we not have an election and at least allow another party to have *a go*? Because Labour look like doing nothing but exacerbating the situation and screwing up the country for the considerable future.
155 TY
159. Irony!
160. Yep!
The “Palin Rumour” seems to have now made an appearance in the media:
ttp://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4647965.ece
@161:
I’m going to register Ave It ‘09 as a trademark, and then you’ll be screwed.
158. We need more warming pans with winter on its way in.
They will be the next big thing on QVC, you wait and see.
Correction
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4647965.ece
BREAKING NEWS - Sources within the Obama campaign are reluctant to confirm new reports, that Democratic vice presidential nominee Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware is actually a woman.
“If this turns out to be true,” says on highly placed source, “then we’ve shattered yet another glass ceiling.”
164-Don’t you read these threads-try 126.
168. He will have certainly *broken the crack*!
Sometimes I mistake this site for a politics site (stupid me). The most pressing issue (to me) is the UK economy, and here on the site Palin’s kids are being discussed. Should I find it distasteful that people are betting on the strength of this?
McCain just on live (carried on Sky News) postponing most of the Convention. Good speech, like a cosy grandfather of the nation.
169. Oops. Missed that. Apologies.
@171:
The story is distasteful, attempting to measure the likely betting outcomes is not.
171. I find it sick personally! But i never get involved in the betting as such, just the politics and my view of them.
171. I’ll reserve judgement on betting on it but the whole story is utterly tasteless, not to mention the legal implications. If it is ran with it will only backfire on the Dems.
166 You Brits are just gnashing your teeth because we’ve got baby Palin and all you can muster is the Angst of Alstair Darling.
And this from the nation that gave us the Profumo Scandal and the Thatcher cabinet!
174. Exactly. I can’t see the problem with it.
Shockingly, I’m with both the Martins: this story (like the ‘whitey’ tape) is utter rubbish.
and the Thatcher cabinet! ??????????????????????
Profumo Scandal IN THE 1960′S.
177. Never fear, we’ll have a Tory government again in a couple of years and then we’ll be back on an even keel scandal wise! Labour have been a dour lot, despite Mandy’s best efforts.
My point was that is there no dirt that will be dug up to try and gain political advantage. Is American politics any dirtier than our homespun stuff??.
180 - your point being???x10
177, And this from the country that gave a whole new meaning to the phrase ‘A Monica’
I don’t suppose the Palin story is any different than using any other evidence to support your view an outcome may occur; thus in a betting context, it’s an important story to bear in mind.
But, as others have said, the story itself is pretty disgusting and in no way, shape or form should the Democrats be seen to associate with it (I do have faith that Obama will know to leave full well alone).
The GOP convention will be purely functional with no political rhetoric over the next couple of days. How will this affect McCain’s chances? There is bound to be less media coverage than the Democratic convention with Gustav about to hit.
182 - we share and enjoy a rich tradition of political calumny. Gilray and “Maw, Maw, where’s yer Paw?!?”
@186:
It’s what McCain’s wanted all along. He and Palin can now play their ‘man and woman of the people’ routine.
From the depravity of the that initiated that rumour to the doom and gloom of ‘Private Fraser’s’ reincarnation…….
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/economy/2657205/Alistair-Darling-to-unveil-biggest-downgrade-of-economic-forecast-since-1992.html
183. and the Thatcher cabinet
Yes what about the Thatcher cabinet? Don’t get that!
188. Agreed.
Two possible outcomes, the second more likely IMHO:
1. The lack of media coverage and ‘wow factor’ from the GOP convention blots McCain and Palin out of the political narrative, leaving them without a convention bounce and putting them at a clear disadvantage as we move into the campaign proper.
2. A scaled-down GOP convention, with *no Bush* (pardon the expression!) allows McCain to look like an independent elder statesman, reassuring in times of need. It allows him to draw clear parallels between the flashy showbusiness of the Obama campaign and his seemingly more down-to-earth style. If he pulls off a good ‘father of the nation’ speech at the end of a week where GOP problems have essentially been neutralised, he could get a nice little bounce leaving the race neck-and-neck again.
188-Oh come on Martin even by your standards thats a tad cynical.
186. It is going to be a great contrast to the Democratic Convention but if the country is in batten-down-the-hatches mode then it will surely play well.
I have no objection at dirt being thrown at politicians (I enjoy it far more when Labour get the brunt of it) but I thought the press reporting Ewen Blair getting hammered was not exacly fair (How many of their own kids or even themselves have behaved similarly) and as for targeting Mrs Palin’s family, Thats just totally unacceptable. I hope the voters treat it accordingly. I suspect the more she is attacked, the better it will be for the GOP.
180 - do see that I should have said Thatcher-Major cabinet. The “Back to Basics” boys (and odd girl like Edwina Currie).
185 - US coverage of Palin over holiday weekend is still very positive. However, reports do raise issue of her qualification. Plus noted that her speech in Washington, Pennsylvania (very near my old stomping grounds in western PA) was identical to her annoucement speech. Also that the crowd booed when she mentioned Hillary. So some intimations that Paline must move to prove she’s ready for prime time.
186 - Cynic in me says that the GOP is using Gustav as excuse for ditching the bulk of their convention, in particular the parts featuring Bush and Cheney. And even most of the rest of it except of course for one night or so that focuses on McCain and (perhaps) Palin.
Using the hurricane as cover may also allow Team McCain to deal one way or another with the Baby Palin rumor. Conceivably they could use it as a club to beat Obama and Biden around the head and shoulders: how dare they rely on such shoddy smear tactics? However this may be a bit too high risk even for the Original Maverick.
188. Good point. If they can pull it off successfully then it might work in their favour. Still the lack of convention coverage is bound to hurt them I suspect.
194. I was also very glad that the press didn’t publish certain rumours relating to Blair’s family around about the time he made his pledge to serve a full third term, as well (if people are reading this and think ‘what?’, I’m sure you can appreciate I’m not going to post it up on here, but I daresay there’ll be somewhere on the internet that still has the ’story’).
195 - One consequence of shortening the convention and cutting most of the crapola: this screws Republican candidates for Governor, Senate and US House. Because virtually every one with half a chance of actually getting elected or re-elected is on the schedule.
This may be just the latest example of how the GOP is putting all it chips on the presidential. That it’s already conceded Congress to the Democrats. And the governorships of key states, in particular states where the men and women elected in 2008 could have a major impact upon congressional and legislative redistricting in 2011-12.
182.. and I think US politics is *slightly* dirtier. That’s largely because a little bit more dirt tends to get thrown on moral issues. That’s partly because in the US campaigning on moral issues like abortion and homosexual rights is the done thing, whereas in the UK it’s considered to be largely a matter of individual conscience (however much Brown tries to wreck that consensus). As such, if you’re a Senator who, has, say, a deeply conservative record on abortion, the media are more likely to delve into your private life to work out if there’s ever been any contradiction in your stance, or personal experience, etc.
Internet rumours and the like crop up about politicians everywhere, though. Look at Guido’s site if you think the UK blogosphere has higher morals!
198 - the way the lower-tier speechs work, is that the clips get extensive airplay on the local news in the politico’s home state. Plus they can use edited version for their own campaign comercials.
And if they really get lucky, like (and this was highly predicatable) the Governor of the great State of Montana, then they get a bit of national exposure which is helpful both at home and abroad.
198. Yep, I think they’ve essentially conceded that the Congress is basically going to go overwhelmingly Democrat.
As was theorised on here a few days ago, though, it does perhaps give McCain a bit more of a chance in that it tends to be fairly rare for the House, Senate and Presidency to be held by any one party.
198-On that analysis then I take it that you consider no “crapola” took place at the Dems. convention then-dream on Obama.
191. Agree about the two scenarios, not so sure about which is the more likely.
Obama has a big spending advantage, so McCain needed the free publicity of the convention coverage to get his campaign’s message across. That will be much harder now, though the scaled back convention probably has less to do with that than the potential difficulties in New Orleans. In many ways, his fates are tied to New Orleans. If the city comes off OK, he should get some credit for what will look like a statesmanlike decision to row back on the partying, as well the news coverage of the hurricane being limited to standard fare. If there are problems with further severe flooding - even without residents being stranded like last time - there’ll be so much media attention on a fresh disaster that it will dominate the news schedules. In addition, with Republicans in the White House and Governor’s mansion, the GOP may take some criticism for not rebuilding defences rapidly enough.
Obviously, we hope that Gustav passes without too much physical damage to New Orleans - but the political damage to McCain may already be done. Once Obama starts spending his campaign war-chest, it will be difficult to compete unless there are Democratic own-goals (not impossible by any means). Now I don’t expect a convention bounce for McCain, I’ve now reversed my positions and am close to neutral on him and very green on Obama.
Ramussen commentary on the Palin polling effect:
“There have been significant changes in perception of John McCain in the two days of polling since he named Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Since then, 49% of Republicans voice a Very Favorable opinion of McCain. That’s up six percentage points from 43% just before the announcement. Also, 64% of unaffiliated voters now give positive reviews to McCain, up ten points since naming his running mate.
There has been little change in perceptions of Obama since his Thursday night speech and the Palin announcement (see trends and other recent demographic observations).”
191. Of course if George Bush was popular he would be at the convention, wouldn’t he?
199. I think US politics is dirtier/more negative than in the UK beacuse the US has a two-party syatem. There is nowhere for a ‘plague on both your houses’ vote to go.
197. Quite agree on the Blair stuff, It is unacceptable for media to put some things to the public - especially what you mention - I know.
equally Blair’s son getting pissed should never have been put into the media either.
I remember as a kid delivering newspapers and one rag had a picture of william or harry taking a leak and putting it under the headline “A royal wee” - what public interest is there of that? None.
Some of these newspaper editors are sick!
i think mccain has played this about as well as he could have done, and he certainly won’t lose any ground now, but obviously he is being handicapped by the loss of the convention.
205. I have no idea how much Bush’s approval ratings have had an impact on him staying away; but I do think it’s good for McCain that he *is* staying away.
Perhaps a possible consequence of the Baby Palin rumor, is to divert attention (at least in the short term) from more fruitful lines of investigation and potential attack. Such as:
1. TROOPERGATE In Alaska, shooting a cow moose out of season is a worse offense than tasering your own 12-year old. Suspect the opposite is true in most of the other 49 states. Either way, the real issue is the use and potential abuse of power. Plus questions re: proper judgement and sense of limits.
2. RELIGIOUS RIGHT This is not as big a hoo-doo for American voters as it is for Brits. For one thing, over hear we just about all know somebody for whom the Theory of Evolution is a real problem; we assume they are very religious, not stupid; they believe that way because its part of the rules of their church (which are always wacky at some level regardless of denomination or lack thereof). Also, having a conservative Christian on the ticket will be popular with religious conservatives so McCain is helping his base problem. HOWEVER while most holyrollers know that Pailin is one of them, that is not true (yet) of non-evangelicals. And plenty of these people are going to find having a hard-shell (if very attractively packaged) fundamentalist a heartbeat from the Presidency offputting and maybe even a deal breaker.
196. I don’t agree - Obama was seen to speek from his mock greek tragedy set whereas McCain will be sharing the people’s tradgedy.
Politically McCain looks like a leader of the people where as Obama is lecturing them from an elitist and backward platform.
Factors that may make US politics dirtier than UK, are diversity and decentralization, of government, society and culture. Which allows for more weeds as well as flowers to spring up from between the cracks.
BREAKING NEWS - Sources within HM Treasury are reluctant to confirm news reports, that the real father of Baby Palin is Alastair Darling.
“If this turns out to be true,” said one highly placed spokesperson, “then at least it confirms the Chancellor takes Britain’s special relationship with the American people and government very seriously indeed.”
210 - congratulations, you are the last person on earth who is still trying to argue that the stage at Mile High Stadium was elitist.
If nothing else, entitled you to be crowned Miss Percipacity . . .
209 and all other posts about Palin’s views on creationism/abortion etc…
Palin is going to cement the conservative base. Evangelicals will *love* her. However even if through sad misfortune she ended up as President, she would not be able to require creationism or the gaps in theory of evolution to be taught in schools.
She would also not be able to out-law abortion in the US. Appointing one more strict constructionist to the court will get rid of Roe vs Wade, but then it will be down to state legislatures (ie elected representatives) to decide the appropriate limits. Someone posted earlier a fear that a pro-life appointee might be able to argue that the right to life might trump the right to abortion - possible, but highly unlikely from strict constructionists already on the court. Ardent pro-choice people will never vote for McCain over Obama, but the constituency of women that want to see the glass ceiling broken may be tempted to go Republican. It’s the size of this constituency that makes her a great pick IMHO.
It is hard to assess the effect on the odds for the VP place with complete dispassion. But let us be under no doubt about one thing. Highly narcissistic individuals (and politics of all parties in all countries is increasingly populated with these unprincipled souls) ARE capable of doing virtually anything when it suits them and believing (a) their own stories to the point of absurdity and (b) that they will get away with it. The former Mayor of Sefton, recently released from Her Majesty’s pleasure is a classic example: played football while claiming top rate Disability Living Allowance while in the public spotlight (and he still thinks he did nothing wrong!). Jeffrey Archer also comes to mind.
A dispassionate approach to the odds on (i) a 43-year-old mother-to-be on her fifth full-term pregnancy having little or no ‘bump’ at the eighth month (ii) same woman defying every bit of medical advice in the book to take a ten hour flight back from a conference after broken waters and then take the pregnancy NOT to one of Anchorage’s excellent obstetric wards but her own ‘pet’ doctor up-country (iii) said woman bouncing back into busy public life, with no post-natal swelling or obviously engorged breasts only three days after having given birth to a Downs Syndrome child - all of these factors then combined with the strange circumstances of her daughter’s absolutely co-incident withdrawl from school would suggest that Ms Palin’s story could well be true. Ascribing a notional probability to each of the elements concerned and multiplying them in the manner I was taught in my statistics classes gives me a clear probability that it might well be an honest account. The fact that that my assessment of the probability of all these factors listed above coming together is somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of one per cent is neither here not there!
I myself had a really nasty blast of ‘Mono’ when I was 19. One thing that it did was prevent me from being safe to drive yet I was really only ‘off’ for four months. The Palin daughter had her car accident when she was driving herself to the doctors when she was still off school.
Certainly there is no way that the small, tight-knit Anchorage ‘club’ who seemed to be exclusively and intimately involved in this pregnancy could be discounted as ‘not being able to keep this quiet’. Their minions could well suffer ‘emperor’s new clothes’ syndrome with the ‘truth’ they were being told and the Governor in Anchorage has a lot more sway in those parts than Teddy Kennedy ever did in Chapaquidick.
Does anyone know whether the CIA are involved in providing assessments of intelligence on VP candidates to the presidential candidates? If this were so then it would obviously reduce the chances of this story being true because they would have doubtless gone for phone records etc.
165 HEHEHE I already ‘ave a world wide copyright!!!!!
Sea Shanty Irish, thanks, as ever, for your excellent commentary on US politics (as well as Morus, Stars & Stripes, and Socrates). I’m not vastly concerned who wins the Presidency, but just hope it’s a tight, exciting contest, with no more than 2-3% in it either way.
212: Does the kid have wildly different eyebrow and hair colour? Shame (s)he is so young, a true child of Darling would be outed instantly by coming out with a statement along the lines of “McCain is the worst candidate for 60 years - he should know he voted for all of them”
214 Have Justices Roberts, Alito, Scalia etc. given legal opinions suggesting that the right to an abortion violates the constitution?
Palin was a horrible choice in every respect.
Regarding the rumour, my guess it that it is wrong but anyone who’s water’s break but takes an 11 hour flight followed by a drive away from the best hospitals in Alaska is not a person of good character.
220. One could also argue that a woman with five children, who has just given birth to a disabled child, should not be neglecting her family to run for Vice-President of the U.S.
i might be wrong, but the story seems to have disappeared from Daily Kos - and even half their own readers seemed to find it pretty absurd when it first came out. The pictures are ridiculous - as someone said earlier, the girl looks exactly the same in two pictures, in one of which she’s supposed to be 7 months pregnant. anyone wasting their money betting on this is a fool
Maria Theresa, the extremely successful Empress of Austria, was chairing meetings of her Cabinet within half a day of giving birth to her ninth child.
71 - I’m sorry Coxall but f*ck you.
Read what I said on the previous thread.
If you are going to be a thuggish right winger then at least be sane.
You know nothing, you mean nothing, you are nothing.
221. Well, I don’t agree with that take because it sounds rather sexist (I don’t like Cameron but I’m not arguing that he should quit politics because of his son).
However, if Palin has endangered the life of her kid, or she has lied about other things then that DOES matter, espcially given her emphasis on family values.
220 - Matthew, did you see that I credited you with being the first person to ever mentioned Palin as a potential VP (you also said she’d be awful, but you’ve stuck with that view)?
Some guys at the New York Times were saying ‘whoever saw that coming?’ and I said that a commenter on this site (you) mentioned her on 20th December 2007. They were impressed!
221. By that account, no parent should run for high office if their children are young/disabled (if we’re only relating it to mothers, it’s very sexist, too). In that world view, neither Gordon Brown or David Cameron should be PM (and Blair, who had a young family, would be a bone of contention, too).
189.The economic news just gets worse.
“The Chancellor had dismayed many MPs loyal to Mr Brown by admitting that the economic crisis would be worse than people thought and that people are “p—– off” with Labour.”
Although I liked this way of describing that loyal minority of Brownites surrounding Brown in the bunker, makes it sound like their is more of them than there really is, bless.
I suspect the language used by them was worse than anything Darling came up with, and indicated a damn sight more than dismay as the political implications of the Darling bombshell hit Gordon’s relaunch hopes.
214 GOP demographic target with Palin is clearly:
1. Enthuse conservative Christian base
2. Attract Hillary supporters. But NOT pro-choice Democrats, who are the heart & core of Sen. Clinton’s fans. Instead, McCain is using Palin to go after younger and/or less educated woman (no college) who are not partisan and often opposed/ambivilent to abortion (so pro-life isn’t dealbreaker).
Problem that McCain and GOP have with #2 is the economy and Bush fatigue. Also would argue that even with (or perhaps especially among) woman, Palin’s pick undermines lack of experience as an argrument against Obama. Especially as Joe Biden is not a negative with women. Even if he’s not one of them!
223 - “Governor Palin, I knew Empress Maria Theresa, I worked with Empress Maria Theresa, Empress Maria Theresa was my friend. And Governor, you ain’t no Empress Maria Theresa”
Just doesn’t have the same ring though, does it Sean?
225. It’s not my point of view but it’s another angle of attack for some, especially given how recent the birth was.
220. “Palin was a horrible choice in every respect.”
REALLY? Come on. That’s absurd. Pat Buchanan would be a horrible choice in every respect. Rick Santorum would be a horrible choice in every respect.
There are risk to picking Palin and you may disagree with her positions. There is no way she is a bad choice in every (or even most) respect. There are also substantial benefits and opportunities too.
I happen to think that the risks in picking Palin are relatively small and it’s the actual benefits which are up for debate.
Morus - if Rod Crosby is right, and the baby story is a criminal libel in lots of states, is someone going to suggest odds on your Daily Kos friend being indicted before election night?
230 LOL!
It’s interesting that Europe in the Mid-Eighteenth century produced a number of women rulers of outstanding ability.
215. And what are the odds of said person, while desperately trying to “conceal” said daughter’s “pregnancy”, simultaneously posing with daughter in at least two official photos, while daughter wears figure-hugging clothes?
About the same chance as Elvis crash-landing a UFO on to the head of the Loch Ness Monster….
For the benefit of those who don’t #know what I said -
“I suppose it was inevitable that those who gleefully spread the Obama/Muslim rumours around are those who are now complaining about the Palin/Baby rumours.
Myself, I think neither are worthy of mentioning, I have no sympathy, however, with the type of person who was happy with their own ’side’ doing it.”
If we can get back to non-libellous comments, this is useful in sidelining Bush and Cheney, if McCain can then have a convention without them then he will be doing well. It’s like having a party and forgetting to put the right date on the invitation of people you didn’t really want there in the first place.
Stuart Dickson (63):
I really wouldn’t put much credence in a Sunday Independent opinion poll - indeed I’d put very little credence in any “political analysis” published in the Sunday Independent in general.
The newspaper has had a reputation in the past for publishing “opinion polls” with absolutely no information given about issues like sample size or selection method and which produced results which happened to co-incide with the newspaper’s own prejudices. The “Sindo” is currently hysterically anti-Cowen.
They do now actually name the company who are carrying out their opinion polls, but the company concerned is new to political opinion polling and the sample size is small (500). There’s also a trend of hugely underestimating the Sinn Féin vote in comparison with corresponding results from the other, more reputable, pollsters such as tns/MRBI or RedC. Coincidentally, the “Sindo” is hysterically anti-Sinn Féin.
If anything, I would expect sentiment to be even more strongly anti-Lisbon at the moment. Other opinion polling has shown a swing towards the “No” side.
Is criminal libel actually enforced though? Technically it’s an offence in this country, but I don’t think anyone’s tried a prosecution since Oscar Wilde.
233 - I reckon it’s unlikely. First Amendment rights go a long way, and I don’t think a criminal trial to suppress the information would be in the Republicans’ favour, at least before the election. I have to say, I’ve never known this law be used in the US.
It is state law, and I believe Markos has his servers in California - I would be astounded if the ACLU couldn’t win this sort of case in California, assuming they have such a law.
I’m not laying, but I’d say between 1/50 and 1/100 on such a case being prosecuted in (let us say) a state Supreme Court
Don’t you just love the mother-in-laws !!
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/republican_race/2008/08/30/2008-08-30_sarah_palins_motherinlaw_uncertain_about.html
22 - To think that Santorum was once spoken of as a possible Presidential candidate - shudder.
Must say I find myself agreeing with Mrs Smithson. That Sarah Palin has a speaking voice that can be a bit irritating. Very nasal and high pitched, especially when she is trying to project to a large crowd (as at Washington, PA).
Not a huge thing. But something she will need to watch.
222. In addition to perhaps proving the Baby Palin rumor has no legs, the scepticism shown by many Daily Kos posters may be an indication that Sarah Palin is an appealing choice with many pointy-headed liberals (such as yours truly)) who like her even though in theory we shouldn’t.
226.
Thanks. However, for once I wish I had been wrong.
232.
Given that she was a ‘Brigadier’ for Buchanan in 1996 (Buchanan’s own words) it may just as bad. She also attended a Buchanan rally in 1999 (although she wrote a letter withdrawing her support for him three weeks later).
re 238 well Denis Lemon got a suspended sentence and Gay News went bust in 1977 as a result of it.
223, 230 - Reason that the Empress was relucant to turn her back on affair of state, was that whenever she did, something bad happened. Like the rape of Silesia.
242.
If Palin manages to survive it will be because too many of the left are afraid of attacking a female candidate, even though they were unafraid to go after Condi Rice and Hillary in sexist terms.
242 - I like her voice, it’s distinctive. Does it have any connotations though? Is it thought of as being typical of something? Does the Hague factor could come into play with any candidate?
Been at Lord’s all day, some great cricket between the rain. *Never* bet against KP and Freddie in a run chase.
Guido reporting more bad news for the housing market.
+++ S&P Predicting UK Housing Market to Fall 30% By 2009 +++
243 - Indeed the Buchanan link is much more interesting than anything in her private life. The only time the latter becomes important is when the voters start to talk about it unprompted (as they appear to have done with the ‘bad mother’ meme).
247. I wonder if there is any correlation between voice and polling success? I know a lot of people couldn’t stand Thatcher and Blair’s voices, but they both got elected (however, Thatcher’s political successes coincided with her receiving vocal training -her voice prior to the late 1970s was horribly shrill). I think it’s probably something that might *annoy* a voter more, but not one that would be a reason to *stop* voting for someone.
238. Don’t go to Durango, amigo…
http://www.durangoherald.com/asp-bin/article_generation.asp?article_type=news&article_path=/news/06/news060408_5.htm
I am not a lawyer, but I suggest that malicious sexual defamation of a minor *could* be criminal libel, especially as some posters on the Kos site were embellishing the basic story with even more gross, fantastical allegations…
E.g. Alabama Law (1876) says…
“[a]ny person who writes, prints, or speaks of and concerning any female, falsely and maliciously imputing to her a want of chastity; and any person who speaks, writes, or prints, of and concerning another, any accusation, falsely and maliciously importing the commission by such person of a felony, or any other indictable offense involving moral turpitude. . .”
Ala. Code § 4107 (1876)
You don’t want to be joining that hacker guy, looking at 20,000 years in Sing Sing!
235 -everyone knows that Elvis is pumping gas somewhere on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. But the UPee’s will never rat him out.
252. JFK runs a shooting school in Nebraska!
252. Al Gore combats Global warming!
What is the Daily Kos by the way?
248: Do you mean bad as in ONLY 30?
Lower mortgage payments = good
It’s that simple. BRING IT ON
251 - Note that a judicial lynching of a pointy-headed blogger in the state of Alabama for Jaysus sake, no matter how decorous or justified, at the instigation of the Republican Party, is unlike to serve John McCain’s best interests.
249. I still stand by the fact that the choice of Palin was an inspired gamble because since the announcement it’s basically *all* that PB and other political sites have been talking about. On normal days, the fact Darling said that the economy was facing its worst crisis for 60 years would have taken up 95% of the postings on here - in my view, it’s been less than 10%!
Palin has got people talking about the McCain campaign and that’s what he needed. One way or another she’s going to have an impact - as the postings on here have shown none of us really know which way it’s going to go. But for a candidate who is the clear underdog I guess a gamble is better than playing it safe.
However I think that Team Obama and their supporters have to be careful not to fall into the trap of attacking Palin as opposed to McCain. McCain is still the major opponent in November, not Palin. Negatively obsessing about her too much in the blogosphere and beyond is merely going to rebound, I think, if people aren’t too careful. Yes, she’s on the ticket, but Team Obama have to recognise that McCain will be President if the GOP ticket wins in November, not Palin.
Even assuming the main thrust of the rumour is entirely false, I still can’t believe that Palin’s odd behaviour during pregnancy will endear her to many women.
There are so many potential negatives with Palin, I’m really stuggling to come to terms with why McCain picked her. Surely he couldn’t have been risking everything in such a transparent bid to tempt disgruntled HRC fans?
258 - I don’t bother talking about UK politics much anymore because there is an inevitability about what is happening that needs no more from anyone. Why add to the chorus of people saying the same thing(other than to confuse them by showing that I agree with them half of the time
)?
As in our frequent comparison of tactics vs. strategy, this was good tactics but poor strategy, it’s a short term benefit clearly but, when the dust clears, there are many questions to be answered.
It is notable that the right have already framed what they thinj are the questions - inexperience, small town etc. - but this, again, is short termist. Democrats, in fact, have talked not about inexperience but lack of engagement with issues (foreign policy mainly) and not about ’small towns’ but about the ticket’s seemingly ad hoc nature.
Palin = ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Surely if there was any truth in it, there would be mainstream reporting. I am not talking of the Times reporting alleged Internet rumours either!
It’s Bull shit! 100% Why keep going on about? Boring. None of this is even permeating the main media in the US! It will not change any votes, just like comments on here do not change them in the UK.
Just a thought. Straw saying there will not be a challenge to Brown is not the same as saying Brown is safe and/or he will stay in post.
Did he at any point say specifically that Brown would be leader at the next election?
Is the plan to get Brown to resign, after all?
262. He said he would not challange but that is not the same as telling Brown his Number is up as PM!
264. Sorry i mean’t Witan at 263.
258.”On normal days, the fact Darling said that the economy was facing its worst crisis for 60 years would have taken up 95% of the postings on here - in my view, it’s been less than 10%!”
Bizarre, isn’t it?
259.That first comment is beyond parody! HORMONES!!!
I won’t bore you with a couple of classic examples of my behaviour that my other half still laughs about even now years later.
259 - McCain didn’t have Palin as his preferred choice, it was Lieberman (and again can I add to the kudos to the oft maligned Mr Partridge on this).
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/aug/20/gop-officials-try-to-head-off-lieberman-pick/
By the way, the next Democratic ad writes itself, a comparison of what McCain was doing during Katrina (having a party) and what he will be doing during Gustav, when he wants to be the President. If McCain had any sense he would let his party organise things and not be seen in the area (which would be bad anyway, redirecting vital security personnel).
248/257 total housing market WIPEOUT!!!!!!!!!!!!
263.”Just a thought. Straw saying there will not be a challenge to Brown is not the same as saying Brown is safe and/or he will stay in post.2
Witan, I noticed that carefully crafted statement by Straw…
madasafish on the earlier thread. Thanks for the data.
I think it all makes sense except for the expectation of greater exports as the pound collapses. So far, in the last year, UK exporters to the Eurozone have by and large appeared to simply increase margins by leaving prices in Euros stable.
There is some statistical evidence for this and business evidence.
A buyer for a large supermarket chain in Europe thought now might be the time to buy some of those UK food products for their specialist sections that were too expensive previously only to be stunned that suppliers wanted the same or higher prices in Euros as they did when the pound was worth 16% more.
It appears greed is still with us, and the greedy will no doubt blame someone else for their woes. But that is the lesson of the last ten years: it is always someone else’s fault.
267.
Good grief! You got your life savings on the US election?
Chill out man - only a couple of months left: Pace yourself!
266, Do hormons make you take an eight hour plane flight while in labour?
245 Blasphemous, not criminal, libel.
246 And was actually highly competent when she concentrated on affairs of state.
271 - You’ve lost me Martin, what are you on about, savings? I have no money, I have a mortgage and Gordon Brown is Prime Minister!
More Palin trouble here
275, Pretty bad to introduce yourself to America with an out and out lie. It may not be quite as daft as HRC’s ‘gunfire’ - but this is a key plank of the McCain campaign afterall.
Labour’s Degree free for all leaves worthless degrees…
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life_and_style/education/article4641312.ece
Apparently 1/3rd get no gain from their degree. Another 3rd can get a job making sandwhiches.
Worthless confetti qualifications from Labour?? Who would have thought it?
and more woe for Blair here.
The sooner he goes the better.
Interesting artical in the times about Darling’s reasoning for comparing now with 1948. By any stretch of the imagination i would not have thought now is like 1948. For instance Labour still had rashioning at that time. where as the free market stull rules for now - anyway!
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/libby_purves/article4647669.ece
re 277 I was thinking that when I espied a Birmingham University student (not some tin pot new university mind) on the train down to London on Friday proudly wearing his “Golf Management Studies” sweatshirt.
277. Tell me about it!
Maybe the fuel price problem will cause horse and cart to come back - so at least i can put my talents to use shoveling shit!
279. Indeed, Labour was in the process of *expanding* rationing to goods that never were rationed during the war.
This is problematic too (health warning: hyper-partisan source):
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/31/11597/0342/569/581165
Problem with small-town politics is that they are like student politics, as described by Kissinger: the most brutal, because the stakes are so small.
281 you may not be far wrong. A lot of things will change…
And again: http://www.adn.com/opinion/comment/story/295464.html
272.Look, I am absolutely bored senseless by this. I could answer your question, but that might involve some good old fashioned common sense, which does tend to put a dampener on the conspiracy theories. I did reply to a point Socrates raised on a previous thread, and I felt very uncomfortable even doing that.
Mike has said that “Only comments about the betting aspects caused by the possible uncertainty will be allowed from now on”
286 - In the midst of the expected stories such as these Morus (and kudos to you for your excellent diaries, that were an interesting counterpoint to media spin in all directions) there is one overriding issue.
Was she McCain’s choice? If not, who is running the campaign?
The suggestion from insiders is that Lieberman (with Ridge as back up) was his preferred choice but that Rove did his stuff to get him nixed by GOP heads and the choice was therefore not his.
This also makes perfect sense of him only ever having met her briefly, she quite simply wasn’t on his radar.
Say the Palin story was true, which I doubt it is, then what would it really be? Nothing more than a mother trying to protect her child. That is no bad thing and, lets face it, everybody has a little dirty laundry.
Lieberman would have been an interesting choice as he sits as an Independent Democrat - why did Lieberman get thrown out of the dems? What did he do wrong?
James Forsyth over at the Coffee House Blog has a very interesting analysis of a possible change of strategy in No10, if the IoS story today about Stephen Carter proves to be correct.
Carter got
“The Independent on Sunday’s report that Stephen Carter has been demoted is hugely significant. If it is right, and I have no reason to think it is not I just haven’t independently confirmed it, it suggests that a change in strategy is coming; that the Brownites are going to adopt a more bare-knuckle approach.
In recent weeks, Carter has been advocating not trying to tear David Miliband down, he played a key role in the brokering of the Peace of Minorca, and trying to separate David Cameron from his party, Carter argues that the public believe Cameron to be a decent guy and a moderate so attempting to demonise him won’t work and that the best strategy therefore is to say to voters OK Cameron is alright but what about the rest of them. Carter’s slide down the Downing Street pecking order suggests that he has lost both these arguments and that we will soon see full-on personal attacks launched on both Miliband and Cameron.”
If true, this could get very messy.
The most exciting aspect of the Canadian general election result will of course be the results for the Communist Party of Canada and the Marxist-Leninist Party (probably more votes per candidate for the former, but more candidates for the latter).
289 - He lost the party’s primary and stood anyway as an independent. Most of his voters were republicans and the official republican candidate got a derisory amount of votes as a result.
Lieberman’s popularity ratings have subsequently gone down quickly, it seems very unlikely that he will be standing again next time.
292. Any polling evidence? I thought he got back in just two years ago by a tidy margin?
Most useful article of the day in explaining how the US and UK differ politically.
“Conservative MP Simon Burns says: I’m a Tory Democrat”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4639738.ece
“Fortunately now – and I have George W Bush to thank for this – there are numerous colleagues who are sympathetic to the Democratic party. Part of that is because the Republican party today is not the Republican party of Nelson Rockefeller and John Lindsay, it’s actually an extremely right-wing and in some ways unpleasant political party.
I am trying to avoid the word nasty for obvious reasons but it has become a nasty party. There’s no compassion.
In Britain, whether you are a Tory or a socialist or whatever, we do have the basic belief that you should help and give a leg up to the less well off in society. Well, over the past 15 years the Republican party, since Newt Gingrich and the loonies took over, has given the appearance that it just does not care. ”
It is instructive that many McCain supporters here are those who are right wing yet do not describe themselves as conservatives or conservative voters.
I haven’t been on Conhome recently but apparently there is a split on there, I’ll have to have a look.
282: True, bread was rationed post WW2 - this did not happen during the war - reason was that wheat was diverted to feed Germany - I remember it well. Rationing per se did not cease til about 1953.
270: Trading in a foreign currency can be hazardous if your costs and profits are in UK£ and especially so with the rapid volatility in exchange rates in recent years. Much of the world trades in USD and I have reverted to trading with the Middle East oil countries in their currency as until the last month that was more stable against the UK£.
However, if you are requested to quote in Euros, one will always quote a price that relates to what the market will bear as long as one can make a profit. If the client expects a quote that reflects movements in the exchange rate then he should ask for a quote in UK£ so that he can profit on the improved exchange rate.
Remember at the end of each month I have to pay wages, bills and taxes in UK£. The only exceptions come when you have locally registered trading companies in different countries that trade in he local currency.
This is not greed, it is balancing the currency swings and roundabouts and keeping one’s company solvent.
287 - I have no doubt that Ridge and Lieberman were vetoed by the RNC (who are paying), which probably made him want them more, but ultimately they were dinged.
My read of it is that McCain said “Fine, no pro-choicers. But I get free pick, and freedom to run my campaign from there on in, and they agreed, terrified he would just pick Ridge or Lieberman and force them along.”
Palin was McCain’s pick, absolutely. Especially since winning the nomination, he has been running a safe, boring, tired campaign - completely out of style for him. He really was a maverick, would answer any question - press used to love him, but not since he got the nomination. Why? Because from then on in, he was the property of the RNC. No longer.
Two pieces of evidence. The McCain video saying congratulations to Obama. Who saw that coming? The second - Palin as VP, having only met her once. Ok, we saw it, but we’re special on here. No-one in the MSM saw it coming.
A maverick streak has re-appeared in the campaign, which means that McCain is winning his fight with the RNC. But although he always had the guts to run these campaigns, and the skill to play that way, he didn’t mastermind them. That job fell to his former campaign manager, who actually helped Romney briefly this year (except he was also at McCain’s events sometimes - ever wonder *why* they hated each other? Romney was the biggest threat, and had hired his biggest asset), and who now works for Governor Schwartzenegger.
Mike Murphy.
This is entirely Mike Murphy’s style. Be unpredictable. Do what your opponent is least prepared for. Embrace a fault and call it a strength. Attack the near-strengths Be gracious, if just to buy you time. The guy is a legend, and the Palin pick has his fingerprints all over it.
293 - Too tired to search, but Daily Kos commissioned Gallup or Rasmussen to poll on Lieberman in CT. They found huge ‘buyers’ remorse’ over re-electing him as an Independent, over a Democrat; especially since he endorsed McCain. He won’t win in 2012.
Morus - you can add this one -
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/08/31/mccain-camp-didnt-search_n_122823.html
“McCain Camp Didn’t Search Palin’s Hometown Paper Archives”
The hallmarks are that this was very much a last minute decision.
294.ukpaul, I posted yesterday about the Obama supporting Tories on ConHom giving some the vapours. AHM, noted my heresy on the site.
Yes, I have seen that - Actually the reason why Bill Clinton got such a bounce was because Perot dropped out in 1992, only to re-enter later on.
There are hugely dirvegent views in some respects between the Tories and Republicans. I find it odd though that he has not advocated any like of Reagan in the 1980’s as the Thatcher/ Reagan platform were very similar then! Indeed in some areas Thatcher out did Reagan in changing the political fundamentals than Reagan did! The States has been more Conservative for a long time!
What surprises me most about the Tory MP’s artical is the fact that he backs a Democrat at a time of resurgent National Security Instability! Each to there own and all that but I can see why he might back NRC or even Bill but Obama? Baffled by that one! Hey-Ho and all that!
Martin - here’s one of the diaries that Morus mentions, in July he was 15% behind in a question asking people how they would vote now.
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/3/11710/38088
296 - To go from a once democrat to a hardline christian right winger makes no sense. Maverick is one thing, veering wildly about is another.
I will believe that he has changed back to himself when Davis is no longer a part of his campaign and when he cuts loose the Roveites brought in to do the negative campaigning we saw through the summer. In a way it’s too late anyway, he let it happen, it shows how weak he is or was.
296 - I hadn’t done any research on my complete conjecture, but then I found this
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/01/mike_murphy_an_old_hand_checks.php
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0508/Mike_Murphy_meets_with_McCain.html
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/07/mike-murphy.html
I don’t reckon he’s formally back with McCain (yet) but I wonder if in a moment of distance from the RNC, McCain decided to make a phone call to his old friend, and took his advice for once.
Axelrod vs Murphy. That’s a game I’d kill to see.
300 - If only the GOP were like the party of Reagan, if not Eisenhower.
He also states that he is now far from alone, I’d be interested to see what the split is.
301. Fair enough! I am baffled by what you are trying to prove: McCain picked a Partisan VP who get’s 90% approval ratings over a former democrat who is un-electable! Shock - Horror! Dum -de - dum!
Not been funny UK Paul are you the Democrat supporting Tory MP? If you are you are wise to keep an alias as putting it in your real name would be detramental!
302 - Maverick was the moderate position, his right-wing stuff is the move. I didn’t mean maverick in terms of the volatility. When he was moderate, he was a maverick, because he was already removed from the party, so could afford to be.
He was persuaded to swing right by the RNC, and by his campaign managers. As he has little money, and little institutional support, he has had to do so. This shows a glimmer of light, the old McCain not prepared to do what he’s told, or what the party tells him. He’s hearing a voice from the outside, and I think that’s Mike Murphy. He won’t sack Davis or the RNC lot - he needs their money etc etc. But what he might do is stop doing what they tell him, and start listening solely to Murphy on tactics. If so, this will be an awesome campaign.
“Crisis, what crisis? Alistair Darling’s just got his figures wrong”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4649026.ece
Both these stories from the Times are worth a read.
Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown present a united front, but war goes on
“The Chancellor also raised eyebrows by warning that the public were “p***ed off” with Labour, and acknowledging that colleagues thought they could do his job better. Mr Darling, clearly in holiday mood, had said the kind of things he would normally never say in public.
It was dynamite. Mr Brown, after consulting allies, called Mr Darling and told him that he had to put the remarks in context. He must explain, as the Prime Minister had, that he had been talking about world conditions, adding that Britain was better placed to deal with this crisis than past governments.”
Holiday mood!!
“Mr Darling suggested there would be no reshuffle, words that appeared to suggest he had been told as much by Mr Brown. That, The Times was told authoritatively, was not the case.”
Is my memory deceiving me, but didn’t Brown rule out a cabinet reshuffle just recently?
“Alistair Darling’s job on the line after recession blunder”
305 - That would be Simon Burns MP - he even campaigned for Hillary in NH. See today’s sunday times:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/us_and_americas/us_elections/article4639738.ece
309. I have followed his campaigning! Indeed I do know about his activities - As i say each to their own!
I wanted Kerry rather than Bush to win in 2004! I stayed up until about 4AM, only to be pissed off that the exit polls were deminishing with favourable news as time went on and i had work the next day! I was told by a mate at work the following afternoon that Bush had won! 
Many beers that evening! 
to start with 
later!
Not too bothered eitherway this time, my only question mark on Obama is his military stance. Whereas McCain from my point of view is sound - Obama is not.
In attacking McCain for being so wealthy (by marriage) that he is no longer in touch with the Americans losing their homes and jobs, and struggling to pay bills, he has inadvertently offended Cindy McCain.
Her parents built up the $100m empire from very little, and she doesn’t appreciate being attacked for it.
My hearts bleeds for her. $100m in the bank, and someone was indirectly mean about her husband when he ran for election to the most powerful job in the world. Yeah, my heart bleeds.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/cindy-mccain-te.html
307.Mike, its a hat trick for the Times, and we managed not to replicate each other!
Reading all three articles together, you don’t get the feeling that Darling is going to be remaining in his post much longer.
Looks like there might be a cabinet reshuffle after all, and its been forced on Brown, but when? Its something that Brown wanted to avoid before the conference season because of his political difficulties. The downside of one before meant the possibility of disgruntled ex Ministers stirring already choppy waters, and if you hold off on one, the threat of losing a cabinet post might discourage dissent?
This could also be big
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1219913194872&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
I’ve had two people tell me recently that Israel is planning an overt attack on Iran in the autumn - one of them specified the week commencing 20th October. Anyone else heard anything.
308. The Times article contains the following paragraph:
“Tensions between the Treasury and Downing Street were threatening to undermine Gordon Brown’s relaunch, which will begin tomorrow with a package of help for first-time buyers.”
Why do people use phrases like “package of help” as if money grows on trees and is just waiting to be handed out?
A “package of help for first-time buyers” actually means that everybody else paying taxes is going to have what they pay in tax handed out to first time buyers. Why should everyone else have to subsidise first-time buyers?
311. I suppose that’s were Clinton in 1992 was a breath of fresh air on his burger meat and milk replies (Cynic in me says: they probably researched it!). He was not wealthy by Bush, McCain, Obama, Kerry or Gore standards. Sure he had in all likelyhood a well paid Govenor job but he was not married to a fortune or inherited one!
Sure it makes McCain look out of touch but if it is inclussive of his wife’s wealth - becomes tricky as people do not always share that info: No matter how close they are (Speacially when you have more cash than you know what to do with!
).
314.I know what you mean, the media can be very lazy when they just repeat these phrases unchallenged. The *Windfall* tax is another classic example of this. It also a Brown classic as well, yet another way for him to raise tax under the guise of being generous to the less well off, but its just another stealth tax con and we will end up paying higher fuel prices.
313. No, not heard that personally but stratigically that would make sense if they wanted a strong GOP president rather than a more insular looking Democrat. Interestingly GOP’s are always seen as more inward looking but they are the ones that seem to go to war! FDR being an exception or maybe Johnson in the 1960’s! Clinton and Carter were on the otherhand were push-over’s.
JFK was an interesting one though - He squared off the threat without war: Something all Post 1960 babies should be thankfull for!
317. “JFK was an interesting one though..”
Very Interesting. According to Mordechai Vanunu, Kennedy was vehemently opposed to Israel acquiring the “bomb”, and Israel was behind his assassination…
Bob Barr just compared Palin to Eagleton live on CNN.
318 - Rod, there is no assassination in its short history that Israel hasn’t been accused of being behind.
“Davis still left the question up in the air. But it appears that there is a good chance that McCain will give his acceptance speech not in person in Minnesota but rather by satellite link somewhere in the Gulf region.”
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/211899.php
Surely he won’t be that transparent? Poor judgement if he does, I doubt that anyone would not see it as anything but politically motivated. Question - is there a need for him to be there? Answer - of course not, he isn’t local and he’s not got any specialist knowledge of the situation.
re 319. I just wonder whether Palin will decide to pull out herself rather than expose her family to all of this. Whatever the substance she and her family are paying an awful price which must be quite shocking.
320. And probably guilty of.. It’s not as if they make any bones about it..
319.
Crikey this is one hell of dirty campaign! 
Is he saying Palin has had to go some sort of mental treatment in the past?
322. I hate bullies, as do I hope all fair-minded folk. If the Democrats are behind all of this, God help them. They deserve to be obliterated. To smear a young girl and a helpless baby is sick-making…
319 - A pick where Evan Bayh’s father declined to be considered!
322. Not as larger price as those who have libled her - remeber, so far the mainstream media in the US has said Zip! The Times, PBC.com and Kos have been the main reporters of this.
321. I still don’t see your motivation in this UKPAUL to be so vacerial about the republicans, indeed it amuses me!
It will be transparent but both McCain and Obama are like flies toward shit with the storm! 
Surely they would have observed Brown suffering due to similar steps taken in extrimist here?
re 325. This is politics Rod - at stake is who gets the most powerful job in the world which affects all our lives. If you put yourself forward then you have to expect that everything will be thrown at you. This isn’t nice but it is, I fear, inevitable.
Vacerial? I can usually work out what you mean, can you rephrase that? Visceral?
The reason is because of history, because of what has happened over the last eight years. In the same way I think that of Labour, maybe you can appreciate that one and why someone could feel so determined for things to change. Their abuse of civil liberties is bad enough but that of the US administration has been worse.
327 - Martin, that’s not fair.
Firstly, The Times, Daily Kos, and Huffington Post have all run stories on this. PB.com has only mentioned it in the comments.
Secondly, the Times has 700,000 readers, Daily Kos has about 19m per month, and HuffPo has about 24m per month. PB.com is six-figures big, but it can scarcely be held responsible for being one of “the main reporters of this.”
325 - I’m inclined to agree Rod, I hope she doesn’t pull out even if true.
That said, if she didn’t mention this to the McCain people, he’ll drop her without her consent.
Here’s Jackie Ashley’s take of where Brown, his government and the plotters are just now. Nobody votes to spend more time with the undertakers
“Nobody can deny that oil and gas prices, food inflation and the unravelling of parts of the financial system, starting in the US, have had a huge impact on the global economy. It’s true that the waves have arrived here at a time when the government has borrowed heavily; it’s also true that the Tories did not oppose any of that spending and investment when it was announced. They are backwards prophets. They are poets of hindsight.”
When I think of what Jackie and other journalist were writing about Gordon Brown&Co a year ago, calling the Tories the “backwards prophets” and “poets of hindsight” is a bit bloody rich to swallow!
324 - I think he means a scandal that the VP forgot to mention in the rushed vetting that forced them to be dropped from the ticket.
328. No, Mike, if you put yourself forward, YOU steel yourself for attacks on YOU, not on your underage children. If it was being said about YOUR underage daughters on a thousand blogs, how would you feel? That’s why I said it could be criminal libel.
Criminal Libel is the kind of libel that is so gross, so damaging, so malicious, so calculated, so uncalled for, that it might make you want to “un-sheath your sword” or reach for your gun, and who could blame you? The law (in some jurisdictions) recognises that civil remedies are insufficient, and certain libels are an incitement to a “breach of the peace” or even murder, and can only be punished by the criminal law….
321 - Would you say Obama going would show statemanlike qualities and compassion?
I can’t see how visiting a disaster zone would be showing bad judgement? Sure, he might not be able to do any more than show he cares but people want their politicians to show they care.
322 - She’s not goign to run from the scandalous smear campaign being run by Kos. To be fair, smears like this against her family will probably turn decent people against the perpetrators not her.
334 - This is what I call good judgement from someone who is a candidate but not in power, not showing you care by token visits but by getting things done and by getting people to help themselves and each other.
“[Obama's] campaign plans to mobilize its huge e-mail list of supporters to volunteer or send money once the impact of Gustav becomes apparent and authorities know better what kind of help is needed. He said his campaign is coordinating with local authorities.
“We can activate an e-mail list of a couple million people who want to give back,” he said. “I think we can get tons of volunteers to travel down there if it becomes necessary.”
Your pooler asked him if McCain’s visit now is appropriate.
His response: “A big storm like this raises bipartisan concerns and I think for John to want to find out what’s going on is fine.”
“The thing that I always am concerned about in the middle of a storm is whether we’re drawing resources away from folks on the ground because the Secret Service and various security requirements, sometimes it pulls police, fire and other departments away from concentrating on the job.”
“I’m assuming that where he went that wasn’t an issue. Were going to try to stay clear of the area until things have settled down and then we’ll probably try to figure out how we can be as helpful as possible.”"
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Obama_will_mobilize_volunteers_for_Gustav.html
Picture caption today describes Palin as McCain’s ‘Stunning mate’
336 - Not much wondering necessary regarding why The Sun might praise her candidacy…..
335 - So what you’re saying is that anything Obama does is great, anything McCain does is neferious and evil.
Sarah Palin is the anti-Christ and Joe Biden is a magnet for change at the highest level.
It’s crap like this that is keeping McCain in the race.
337 - Yup. She takes a great picture. Even when very clearly pregnant.
David Roe - I imagine your colleagues at the Sun might appreciate this:
http://www.vpilf.com
VPILF (only a heatbeat away from being PILF)
335 - Didn’t you read what I posted?
One is tokenistic and one is mobilising help. One is centralising and one is enabling. If you didn’t know who they were you’d praise the latter.
McCain was asked not to go to Iowa for the floods and guess what? He went anyway. This is not the judgement of someone who puts ‘America First’.
325 Getting this hideous story albeit obliquely into the Times will open the door for the US mainstream media.
Recall during the Clinton administration, the Clinton scandals were fed to Ambrose Pritchard Evans in the Telegraph. Once he ran them, then the US papers would run the story sourcing the Telegraph.
I’m with Rod on this one.
341.I am just not convinced that McCain has the presentational or political skills to combat the Obama bandwagon. I watched him at the Tory Conference, and was deeply underwhelmed. In fact, the republican’s problem was the fact that none of their Presidential candidates seemed to have a wide enough appeal and that was reflected in the primary season. If you cannot get the base fired up, how do you propose to set an election on fire?
The Palin choice did not surprise me, but silly rumours aside, she was a choice to appeal to the core vote and take a bit of the media attention away from Obama last week.
I think it will be a mistake in the long term, she will turn off any disaffected Clinton supporters who were angry enough to vote McCain. I think you raised a good point about this not being McCain’s own choice, he is not coming across as his own man in this election, where as Obama is.
That would indicate a strength of charactor, and the Americans love a strong leader.
340 - LOL I forwarded to the news desk
344 - Any chance they can hat-tip PB.com if they run it?!
344 - They almost certainly won’t but I will mention.
Daily Mail runs with Palin story.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1051161/Critics-claim-McCains-running-mate-really-grandmother-youngest-son-new-dirty-tricks-campaign.html
346 - David - I know the Whip never gives credit for the stories it jacks from the blogosphere, but the newsdesk!?!?! (Worth a try!)
Smear debunked by fair-minded Canucks…
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/259257
photo was taken in 2006, NOT 2008….
346 - Oh yeah. I don’t actually know who the Whip is. I remember I sent a few bits over there when I worked more with Parliament.
The Daily Mail have run the story, I just read it in the paper.
I’m surprised our colleagues over the road have gone with it too to be honest.
My phrase to my colleague on the news desk was: “I wouldn’t touch it with a shitty stick”
349 - Standard and London Lite too (same stable as the Mail?)
I’m amazed they have - in-house legal teams at the Mail and Times are either bored or on holiday
350 - Standard and London Lite are both Associated Newspapers (Daily Mail group) yup.
350 - Well they have couched it in a way that “unfounded internet rumours say” so covered themselves to a certain extent. I’m not a lawyer but as mentioned before if it were my call I wouldn’t touch it with a bargepole.
Especially when it just LOOKS like a total pile of steaming crap.
See 348. I hope the editors of those papers are extradited, fast-track, and sent to the Big-House in Louisiana….
SMEAR DEBUNKED by fair-minded Canucks..…
http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/259257
photo was taken in 2006, NOT 2008….
353 - I have also forwarded that.
Thing is, attacking a woman’s kids is just so disgustingly underhand I can’t see this as doing anything but boosting her personal rating. It stinks.
I never thought much of Kos anyway but now I’m appalled.
354 - In defence of Markos himself, he has written no story about it - it is all registered users’ diaries, which can be written by anyone (I write them, and have on this)
You might enjoy my little flame war with Psyche at the end!
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/31/144326/669/400/581318
To be clear, I have talked around it here in the comments after midnight on a Sunday, but would not write a thread that could contribute to the Google/Digg maelstrom. I hope that is not hypocritical. I think it’s clear my target is those writing diaries claiming it is true…
New Thread, for those of us who missed it
Rod, you were all over he lies about Obama’s birth certificate and how they are important.
I think we can see what you are doing here.
357. I merely reported a lawsuit…
OCTOBER 14, 2008 IS A HIGH JEWISH HOLIDAY. BIGWIGS BETTER RETHINK THE DAY. DIDN’T ANYBODY IN THE HIGHER UPS CHECK DATES? VERY SLOPPY WORK. THERE WON’T BE A JEWISH VOTE THAT DAY.