Should an opposition leader be doing this?
August 15th, 2008
Or will the move just highlight the slowness of the government’s response?
In what appears to be a highly unusual move for an opposition leader it’s been announced that David Cameron is to fly out to the Georgian capital, Tbilisi, tomorrow to meet political leaders.
The move seems designed to show solidarity and international support for a government and country that must have felt very isolated in the past few days.
On the domestic front Cameron’s move will highlight the relative slowness of the Government in reacting to the crisis. Gordon Brown only made a public statement after Cameron had done the same.
Internationally, and not just at home, Cameron is being seen as the next Prime Minister and is being treated as such. The danger for the Tory leader is that he could be seen as going beyond what someone in his position should be doing.
Whatever it creates a problem for Gordon. Does he also make a visit that will look like a copycat move or does he condemn Cameron’s actions?
Watch this space.
Mike Smithson
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Yeah, why the hell not…
Somebody from the UK should be seen to be doing something, I guess.
The danger is that it could be seen, as Obama’s Berlin rally was, an overreach for someone who is not yet in the top job.
However, David Cameron is a class act and should be able to carry the trip off in the right sort of tone as (one could argue) Obama did.
Cameron going to Tbilisi tomorrow to speak with Saaki. Now there’s a leader! Arf, Arf.
by weathercock August 15th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
Before I saw the new thread announcement.
Why Not?
With Brown’s Jonah skills, if he turned up, it would probably immediately turn into a full regional war
Why not? He is the only leader we have. Gordon is too busy planning his 1000th relaunch for september…….. computers for chavs etc
Hm, interesting move. I suspect it’s more for domestic consumption than anything else. Keeping in the news and positioning himself as prime-minister-in-waiting is important to consolidate the opinion-poll lead. And getting further experience in world affairs, which is no bad thing.
I suspect it’s also a subject he feels deeply about - that certainly was the impression given by the statement he made yesterday.
Anyway it will add to his Foreign Diplomacy skills, and put up 2 fingers to our Great Leader. ;
I see Cameron is back to what he knows- performing stunts.
4. good point.
Personally. I am just grateful that one of our senior politicians has the backbone to go out there and represent this country.
Brown and Miliband continuing lack of consistent visibility over this issue just gives the impression of Britain dithering and no longer having any influence. It is embarrassing for this country to have such poor leadership.
At least Cameron by stepping in is attempting to keep Britain in the picture.
Gordon Brown and his government have in effect left a power vacuum over recent weeks in politics and in the media, it has allowed Cameron to step up and act like a PM. I would not be surprised if Brown’s dithering over a response to the situation in Georgia has exasperated some other Western leaders, and if Cameron is prepared to show solidarity instead…
I suspect that all the back room politiking within the Labour party, as well as Brown being distracted with planning some sort of fightback/relaunch to save his premiership over the recess meant that they have completely taken their eye of the ball.
Harman seems to be invisible, the more importantly, relations between Brown and his Foreign Secretary are at an all time low too.
8 - It is a stunt, but it’s a well-judged stunt. It’s astounding how lethargic the Government has been on this subject and David Cameron is filling the void. Foreign policy is the one area where the Government has an in-built advantage over the Opposition, and it is throwing that advantage away.
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Just you watch the Millipede catch the next plane.
As usual a last or last but one posting on the previous thread so before being serious here it is:
217, Martin, I don’t know about your other “admirers” on PB but the thought of “Agent Coxall” working your way through the Russian Special Forces frankly is a thought too far. Are there enough lube and condoms in the world
It must be heartbreaking for the Queen to think back on her life. When she became heir presumptive on the death of her grandfather in 1936 she was destined to become Queen Empress of 1/3 of the world’s population. 72 years later she presides over a tiny island and a few other tiny islands in far flung parts of the world with Gordon Brown as her PM. At least her likely next PM is her 5th cousin and her new London mayor is her 6th cousin.
by Easterross August 15th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
I am delighted David Cameron is going to Georgia tomorrow. As a British citizen I have been both embarrased and disgusted at the silence of our elected Government on the matter of Russian aggression towards Georgia for an entire week before Brown emerged to announce he had given President Medvedev a serious talking too, so serious indeed that the Russians have now dug in and halted their withdrawal. Millibland took a week to interrupt his holidays. His kids are young enough to not know he was interrupting his family holiday and frankly the future of European oil and gas supplies is far more important.
I am certain the people will see David Cameron’s actions as appropriate and statesmanlike and I would be surprised if the British media dont take the same view. With no election in sight,he can hardly be accused of electioneering.
Yes he should.
He sets the agenda on everything these days. Britain needs leadership and Brown is unwilling to provide it. The EU Presidency will take care of things is not an answer.
12- I wonder if he could bring some huskies with him, or maybe haul out the shadow cabinet to help build some huts for the displaced populations, with huskies- now that would be good.
Agree though as stunts go this is a blindingly good one
Maybe Brown and Milliband really do believe in the EU project and think they would be better leaving everything to France? Otherwise, they have just screwed up big time.
17, if Brown or Miliband had bothered to do something the window of opportunity for Cameron would never have arisen.
Miliband probably should have gone. Brown’s too Jonahish to send to a potential warzone. But if the government can’t get its act together why should the Opposition not take the lead?
It does seem like a bit of a dangerous move. What can he really accomplish in Georgia? He can’t make any promises, unless he wants to tell them to offer stubborn resistance for the next 22 months until he can come to power and ride to their rescue. When he comes back to the UK, what will he say that he was able to do? Could he be perceived as getting in the way of official British diplomacy in a very delicate and volatile situation? This definitely seems as if it could come off as an empty gesture and leaving Cameron at a loss to explain what it was he was trying to do (if not mere showboating).
If Cameron can pull this visit off well enough, that’s practically Labour finished.
Even if he has minor success, it will just add to the aura of inevitability that he’ll be next PM, and won’t do his PM-in-waiting stature any harm.
The Government’s record over this will look even worse if Cameron doesn’t come back humiliated.
There is a precedence for something like this - remember when John Major and Tony Blair went up to Dunblane together, as though he was serving his apprenticship as PM?
It was noticable that Secretary of State Rice called in to see Sarkozy to discuss the situation and not Brown or Miliband.
I think under a Cameron Government, Britain would once again punch its weight on the international scene.
19.”17, if Brown or Miliband had bothered to do something the window of opportunity for Cameron would never have arisen.”
Spot on!
The way the media handle this will be the key, if they highlight the slowness of the governments response or the fact that neither Brown or Miliband were preparing to go and meet other leaders at this time then its very damaging for Brown and the government.
You have to ask yourself if any of the previous 2/3 PM’s would have allowed this power vacuum to occur?
Although it makes him look statesmen like and ready to lead, it could give DC ammunition to use against Milliband should he ever face him at PMQs (which I’m not convinced of yet) “Where were you during this conflict”
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On balance, despite being a non Cameroonie and believing Georgia brought this on themselves by an ill considered response to a local domestic problem (they took the bait) - Yes.
Brown and his coterie of cretins have left the field free for anyone with an IQ above 1 to walk in and take the political kudos.
By the by, extremely sadly (even though they got this very badly wrong), I don’t think the great british public give a toss about Georgia either way so don’t see any poitical benefit whatsoever by doing so or not.
This is not a Berlin Wall moment.
20. I cant see Cameron carrying messages for the government, when thay could send someone themselves. More likely it’s a move to increase his international exposure while putting the boot into Gordons face.
Sorry for badly written last post
22 - if she then starts calling Cameron (even at the same time as Brown/Milliband) the game really is up
hopefully after the visit to Georgia he will make one to Moscow. someone needs to tell these russian “sons of bitches” to back off or else………….
20 - It’s pretty well risk-free. No one can be expecting him to make any commitments: he’s leader of the Opposition, not Prime Minister. He’s adroit enough in his speeches to avoid saying anything other than warm words. Meanwhile, the mere act of being there shows solidarity with the Georgians, who presumably will be happy to have any chums at all, especially in a major EU country.
In domestic terms, the Russians are still deeply distrusted and generally seen as the villains of the piece in this affair. It makes David Cameron look like a man of action and statesmanlike, and the Government look enervated and ineffectual (a fair characterisation of it on this issue).
The Russians, of course, will be deeply cheesed off, but I doubt that’s a major consideration for David Cameron today.
29 Drug Test for No 29 Nurse !
26. This is not a Berlin Wall moment.
No, it’s a Tbilisi moment. lol.
26 - the general public probably doesn’t care about the specifics of this, but most will be aware something is happening and will be treated as a Bad Thing.
The benefit will be if the public see Cameron out there and think nothing of it (as they would if Milliband was out there) - the image of being in charge already sticks
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21
There is a precedence for something like this - remember when John Major and Tony Blair went up to Dunblane together, as though he was serving his apprenticship as PM?
Hmmm tell me how many British children have been murdered in Georgia?
Well its back to the cold war, MacCain in the Whitehouse. Cameron in Downing Street! I’d better start building that shelter and getting in lots of tinned food.
Gordon’s handling the news well:
http://www2.b3ta.com/host/creative/65807/1218071593/gordontramp.jpg
On the other hand, perhaps Dave is just trying to get away from his grumpy pals.
http://waugh.standard.co.uk/2008/08/gove-admits-tor.html
I think it’s too obviously a publicity stunt. This is Russia’s backyard. Even the US have to try rather hard to make any difference there. The EU together is pretty much powerless. The UK alone is entirely powerless. And Cameron? Well…
He might well be the next Prime Minister of the UK, but at that point the Georgia mess will be resolved - one way or the other. The British government has already issued relatively strong statements. So Cameron’s visit doesn’t even have much of an added benefit in terms of fluffily meaningless ‘international solidarity’.
If he wanted to exert what little influence he has at this point, he would try to push Brown into a stronger stance, thereby hoping to influence the EU to consider actual sanctions. Or he could go and organize a benefit concert or something.
To me it’s pretty clear he’s exclusively going for a photo op here. It won’t harm him and might even help to underscore the idea that he can lead and Brown can’t. Inconsequentially standing around to have pictures taken instead of really helping people is a standard procedure in politics, and we have to live with that. Standards therefore are very low. To do so in a country that is actually at war, and in which people are probably still dying nevertheless strikes me as especially unsympathetic.
35 - what I mean is, it’s a major event that people are interested in, and the Opposition leader is there almost in the same capacity as the sitting PM.
It might just be protocol but it does raise eyebrows when it happens.
Besides, look at the grief Cameron got last year in the floods when he was in Rwanda. Difference a year makes…
This is just the time to go upsetting the Russians.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4541613.ece
33 I agree in very large part…..
There is a danger that sticking your head above the papapet can sometimes (metaphorically!) result in receiving an unwelcome object in the temple though.
I appreciate the attempted ‘World statesman’ building block is extremely tempting and on balance wouldn’t criticise.
It is though something of an unecesary risk with precious little upside.
Would offer the view there’s a danger of reopening the ‘gesture politics’ debate unecessarily (vis - bicycle and car behind and Huskies in the snow)
Won’t make a scintilla of difference either way of course domestically. Gordon and the groovy gang are on death row awaiting merciful release.
Things (apparantly) could only get better……….
Actually overall it isnt a bad idea just show that at least someone in this country is sympathetic to where the Georgians are now (whatever the start of the punch up). The government has been quiet whilst the US and it appears the Germans have been saying to the Ruissians that they are pushing it too far.
I just wonder who’ll be the first European country to break ranks…
Perhaps Cameron will do a reverse Chamberlain and come back waving a piece of paper saying war with Russia in 22 months time .
The Germans find themselves in a particularly tricky situation here. They may wish, more than any other EU nation, to be emissaries of peace in helping to rein in this kind-of European conflict, but they are particularly poorly situated to browbeat the Russians into cooperation given Germany’s well-known efforts over the past several years to increase its dependence on Russian oil and shut down its best alternative energy source, its nuclear power plants.
43- That would give the UK plenty of time to build up its military-industrial complex before the coming nuclear Armageddon.
The Germans might be a little nervous over their gas supplies, Ruhrgas won’t be too happy if the Russians shut down their source.
A recent report in IIRC the Guardian said that Gordon wasn’t speaking to Miliband direct but to the FO ministers (incl Malloch Brown). Doubt its that bad (so Miliband wants his job, why should that make it difficult to talk to him?) but Brown isn’t someone who makes decisions quickly and he’s probably a lot happier letting Sarko make the running. No-one really rates Brown or Miliband anyway, they read the political briefings and see the Government is on the rocks.
UK though is perceived, in Russia and elsewhere, as a power separate from the EU (Russia spends a lot of time insulting/harassing the British Council, Embassy staff, British firms and finding “British spies”). A visit from the Leader of the Opposition might not have meant much a year ago - today when he’s seen as likely new PM it will have an effect.
I don’t like it. It might be me being partisan but I’m not comfortable with Cameron being our representative in a foreign conflict area, no one’s voted for his government yet. I can see a bit better now why Obama’s foreign tour wasn’t well received. It seems arrogant and presumptuous.
40, ah, the bully shakes his fist and you think the right response is to back down? Good job lefties weren’t in charge when the Falklands were invaded.
Russia are aggressive, not thick. They won’t nuke Poland in a month of Sundays.
Also, it’s interesting that at 35 you reach the conclusion we’re in Cold War 2 because McCain might win the White House (possible) and Cameron will win the next election (likely), and not because Russia has invaded another country.
No one voted for Gordon either. That must be why he is doing nothing.
50. Yes but Labour won the 2005 GE. They are our government, Cameron is not part of it.
http://www2.b3ta.com/host/creative/65807/1218071593/gordontramp.jpg
51. If they started behaving like a government maybe Cameron would not be going. Come election time Labour will try and paint Cameron as inexperienced and lightweight. Trips like this help negate that attack. This is good experience for DC and it’s not his fault Brown and Miliband have been so feeble and marginal.
35/49- Don’t worry, guys! Obama will win, and then upon a wave of His mighty hand, the Russians will apologize for having lost their cool and all will be put right.
One as yet unanswered question for the people who talk Russian might and why we are best to just run away from challenging it is if Russians were so powerful how come they may have been taken by surprise by the Georgian action in South Ossetia?
Whilst Russia may have been looking to wind the Georgians up there is evidence that they were caught unawares by the Georgian action despite having considerable troop numbers and intelligence efforts in the area including South Ossetia itself.
They may have been as shocked by it as anyone.
This a PR stunt. In normal circumstances this would not be good for Cameron. The vanity/arrogance of the guy is clearly growing.
53- “This is good experience for DC and it’s not his fault Brown and Miliband have been so feeble and marginal.”
But what are the poor Georgians to think of all this? Will they think, “Here’s an important leader from Britain who’s here to help us somehow” or “here’s a British politican getting good experience and scoring points off his country’s PM”? Which should they believe?
If Bush pushes the Russians too far, (imagine), they might just retaliate by leaving US. astronaughts stranded on the ISS, (international space station).
With NASA taking their fleet of Shuttle craft out of commission, and the new Ares launch wehicle having problems, tell me who needs who?
51 quite so, but he is clearly not prepared to allow the UK to become a backwater and irrelevance as it is under the inept and disgusting gargoyle Brown - Merkel and Sarkozy are seen out and about doing something, Brown and Milliband do nothing - Britain needs to be involved in shaping the future of Western/Russian relations so good on DC for taking the initiative.
Frankly Labour are a disgrace on this and it higlights the weakness of the clown prince who has fialed over Burma, Zimbabwe and now Georgia and betrayed the country over manifesto pledges on Lisbon. Shame on Labour.
57 They are not going to ask the latter, they are going to use it for their own ends.
Yes, the left always sells out to the nations opponents - I cannot understand one Labour MP coming on here and defending Russia. Russia is no longer an ideological bulwalk against the left that former communists can cite as a champion. No, Russia has an evil and corrupt underbelly; Any apoligist in this country is a traitor to there nation! What was fair about the way Russia turned off the gas a couple of years ago: they are a manipulative and dangerous nation.
I hope Cameron’s visit to Georgia re-focuses the nations (UK) need to re-arm and re-resource the countries armed forces. Labour have starved the forces whilst constantly deplying them to war. Not the best srategy IMO.
54. Balls.
59 *failed not fialed
Should Cameron be going? No - Miliband should, but as he’s not, there’s no reason for Dave not to go.
Providing he doesn’t try any independent diplomacy (and he must know not to), there’s not much downside risk. It’s not undermining the government’s international position, it’s giving him useful foreign experience, it’s showing solidarity with a country being threatened by its more powerful neighbour without making any commitments, it might even provoke Brown and Miliband into doing something more than wringing their hands.
Cameron is absolutely right to go. He will be criticised by some for his lack of experience and criticised by others for getting stuck in. Either way I am pleased that he has the guts to go and stand alongside a democratic country that is being bullied by an autocratic regional bully.
Interesting that Clegg seems to be as silent as most of the government on this.
64. Legover is doing just that.
48. But DC is not going their as the UK’s representative!
While a little risky to DC it is very important that at the next GE he can demonstate a good knowledge of international affairs -hence his large number of foreign visits in past year. It certainly demonstates not just GB’s but also DM’s weakness one of whom may well be his opponent at the GE.
49
What if your wrong? Russia is in a fractious mood, we could be on the brink of another Cuba! I think publicity seeking politicians should be very careful about how they behave. This is a little bit different than flashing your pecs and your flowery shorts on a Cornish beach.
A Conservative Government did not declare war on Russia when it went to war with Finland. A Conservative Government did not declare war on Russia when it invaded Poland, although we did on Germany.
As for the Falklands, perhaps if the then government hadn’t sent out lots of signals that it wasn’t interested in the place, removing the guardship etc, the Argies wouldn’t have been given the green light.
Just read a couple of blogs on this issue on Three Line Whip. Cameron is going, not on his own initiative but because the Georgian leaders asked him to go.
They liked his firm tone at his press conference yesterday and they asked him to come.
I think that puts a different complexion on matters for posters lke G and Jonathan. The rulers of the victim state request a senior opposition politician to come when the PM and FS have been conspicuous by their silence and he goes. Miliband remains on holiday; DC is delaying his to do this.
One is a leader. One is fit for office and can and does take decisions. One acts.
So that’s where Gord is hiding.
http://edition.cnn.com/2008/US/08/14/bigfoot.body/index.html
59. Interesting example, Zimbabwe. How many of the people who were demanding military intervation there to protect minorities from the abuses of an (imperfectly) elected government are the same as those rebuking Russia for intervening at all (as opposed to excessively) in Georgia?
The Russians are truly brilliant, though. They know that the U.S. and EU countries may howl and grandstand, but nobody will stand up to them in the end. Their opponents are simply too weak and vulnerable to raise the stakes as high as the Russians are willing to raise them. In the end, Russia will get what it wants in what is informally recognized as its sphere of influence.
Firstly, suggesting to Poles that they back down to accommodate threatening neighbours is not a productive concept. Your are likely to hear some interesting swearwords, though.
Second, why are the Russians miffed? Well, when you launch an ICBM, it has to follow the Great Circle Route - you can plan with this here.
http://www.acscdg.com/
Anyway, to get a missile to pass near Poland you have to
1) Be attacking South America.
2) Antarctica
3) Russia itself.
4) Eastern Europe.
Yes, the missile would have to be passing over (within a hundred miles either side, say) the interceptor site. This is because the ICBM will be doing 10,000mph. To overhaul it is a stern chase is impossible - the physics of possible fuels mean that such an interceptor would have to be bigger than a Saturn V. No, their isn’t a way to magically invent a better fuel - current fuels are at the limits of what can be done chemically.
One Russian statement is that they claim to believe that the US might slap a nuclear warhead on the interceptors and turn them into IRBMs - but a shot from a Trident sub just off the European coast would do exactly the same thing. The Americans offered inspections but the Russians demanded a permanent base on the interceptor site - the Poles said no to a permanent Russian military presence….
So, the Russians see this as a threat to their plans to dominate Brazil, the penguins, themselves or Eastern Europe by threatening the above with a nuclear strike…..
70 The world is full of inconsistencies indeed.
68. Calm down, he is leader of the opposition not the PM (Yet!), lets remember that the French President has been involved, Merkel has been lobbying the Russians and is soon to meet it’s president and of cource the US Sec. of state has travelled to europe. What has Brown done? He has announced that he is going to write another book………
Opposing everything when Labour were in opposition never did them much good - Indeed they continued to get routed in 1983, and 1987: Only in 1992 when Labour had lean’t some of the lessons of the previous defeats did they make headway.
68
I wonder about you test I really do!!
Of course the Goregians asked him to go, they are looking for allies.
What we don’t know is the sort of advice Bush is getting, we may be on the first rung of an escalating situation.
We all want to hope that a present day version of this guy hasn’t got Bush’s ear.
Curtis LeMay
During the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, LeMay clashed again with President John F. Kennedy and Defense Secretary McNamara, arguing that he should be allowed to bomb nuclear missile sites in Cuba, even though he himself estimated that his planes could take out only about 90 percent of these sites (post-crisis analysis hypothesized that such attacks would have missed significantly more missiles than that). He opposed the naval blockade, and after the end of the crisis, suggested that Cuba be invaded anyway, even after the Russians agreed to withdraw. LeMay called the peaceful resolution of the crisis “the greatest defeat in our history.”
68. That worries me. It sounds as though Cameron is being manipulated by the Georgian government. I’m not sure Georgia is the victim state, I don’t think things are that clear cut and it deeply worries me that Cameron thinks things are that simple and is willing to using this conflict for political purposes.
Very interesting. The Georgians invited Cameron to go, because he took the same stance towards the problem as Bush.
It makes sense.
Bush is shallow, dangerous and insane.
And the Tory posters here approve of what Cameron is doing.
67. If you look at the original article, the question of Poland putting itself at risk is in the context of of the missile defence system which will be based on its land. I would have thought that was a statement of the obvious. The point is not that Russia is seeking to do this but that it is willing to publicly imagine a Cold War scenario that far advanced.
As it happens, Russia has a point on this one. The Americans are in breach of their treaty obligations in building it (I can’t remember which treaty off-hand; I think it’s one of the START ones), and it will be of limited use initially. Besides, if a ‘rogue state’ did want to send a nuke to the States, it seems most unlikely that it would do so on a ballistic missile that would leave a footprint back to within a few feet of where it took off and inviting a massive and immediate response, against which it would be powerless. Such a state would be more likely to deliver it in the back of a transit or sail it into a port. The cost differential and publicity attached to developing the alternative delivery systems would also tend to favour the covert over the hi-tech.
So if it’s not aimed at rogue states, who is it aimed at? Well, who else has ballistic missiles around there? The reason why missile defence systems were banned in the first place is the risk of one side developing a first-strike capability; that reason still applies now.
And what’s more, the election of Obama in November will confirm in the eyes of the world that the U.S. has absolutely no taste for forceful foreign intervention for the foreseeable future. After all, who can imagine Obama, who built his campaign around a pledge to end the war in Iraq, has any inclination to get U.S. forces committed anywhere else? This will be welcome news almost everywhere around the world, including in countries like Russia who will receive the message that there is no credible threat to their territorial ambitions. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Chinese ramp up their tone on Taiwan within the next year or two, either.
67, blimey. The Argentine invasion was the fault of the eeevil Tories. Here was I thinking the Tories were running the country when the British troops kicked the Argies off the islands.
68, assuming that’s true, it makes Cameron’s going hard to criticise but more significantly makes it even worse for Brown/Milipede.
77. All cats have four legs; my dog has four legs; therefore my dog is a cat. Makes sense.
81- Sorry, David, there’s a flaw in your logic. I once saw a cat with three legs.
82. Really? I use my eyes.
83- Wow, now things are getting really psychedelic!
80
The roots of the Falklands War were in the negotiations by the British Government in 1980.
The Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Mr. Nicholas Ridley)
With permission, Mr Speaker, I wish to make a statement on the Falkland Islands. We have no doubt about our sovereignty over the Islands. The Argentines, however, continue to press their claim. The dispute is causing continuing uncertainty, emigration and economic stagnation in the Islands. Following my exploratory talks with the Argentines in April, the Government have been considering possible ways of achieving a solution which would be acceptable to all the parties. In this the essential is that we should be guided by the wishes of the Islanders themselves. I therefore visited the Islands between 22 and 29 November in order to consult Islands councillors and subsequently, at their express request, all Islanders, on how we should proceed. Various possible bases for seeking a negotiated settlement were discussed. These included both a way of freezing the dispute for a period or exchanging the title of sovereignty against a long lease of the Islands back to Her Majesty’s Government. The essential elements of any solution would be that it should preserve British administration, law and way of life for the Islanders while releasing the potential of the Islands’ economy and of their maritime resources, at present blighted by the dispute. It is for the Islanders to advise on which, if any, option should be explored in negotiations with the Argentines. I have asked them to let me have their views in due course. Any eventual settlement would have to be endorsed by the Islanders, and by this House.
[Editorial Note: A large majority of Islanders meeting with Mr Ridley expressed clear and consistent opposition to his 'leaseback' proposal]
By entering into negotiations with the Argentine government, it was obvious that British interest in those islands was errr, ‘limited’ Also under the British Nationality Act two thirds of the Islanders would have lost their British nationality.
re 82 - I guess that made it hopping mad
78. No. The relevant treaty was the ABM treaty which specifically stated that withdrawing was allowed if circumstance changed “significantly”. The Americans stated their intention to withdraw a number of years ago, and did.
The proposed site might well *not* be illegal under the treaty, incidentally. Less interceptors than the Moscow setup….
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abm_treaty
Also, see my (72) post. The system *cannot* threaten the Russian deterent, unless they choose to attack -
1) Eastern Europe
2) Brazil
3) Antarctica
4) Themselves
85, Let the islanders decide does not equal “Please invade.”
68 - In that case, if he was asked, then it’s very dangerous for Cameron to go, he will be seen as a pawn in a much larger game.
86. IIRC the failure of Labour in the 1970’s to order decent siezed replacement aircraft carriers was part of the problem as well. Instead the UK got the three joke ones!
86- You certainly didn’t bottle it this time, Mike!
88
Why was the UK government negotating anyway? Why didn’t the government say, ‘The Falkland Islands are British soverign territory, their status is not up for negotiation’ We wouldn’t negotiate on the status of the Channel Islands with France would we?
“My friends, we have reached a crisis, the first probably serious crisis internationally since the end of the Cold War. This is an act of aggression.”
Is he mad? What about 9/11 and the fallout from it?
92, so, you’re admitting that the Conservative government never actually said, “Psst! We don’t really care, would you mind awfully invading please?”
92. Policy of the UK since the 60s - get rid of all colonies/dependencies.
Maggie managed to stamp out some of it, but it is now an ingrained part of FO culture. Hence the comedy with the Turks and Caicos - they tried to threaten them with having the aid cut off to get them to leave!!!
90
That may be sort of true, although the Heath government refused to order the Sea Harrier to fly from what was then called the, ‘Through Deck Cruiser’ the Sea Harrier was ordered by the incoming Labour government. The Thatcher government (John Nott) had of course in its white paper called for significant reductions in the surface fleet, Invincible was to be sold off to the Australians.
94
I never said they did, I said the signals that the UK government were sending out, were consistent with a lack of interest in the Falkland Islands status.
97. Yes, there were errors by all parties in government in the run up to the falklands. What surprises me 25 years on is they still have not got one barrel of oil out of the area!
At least Labour had the sense to get a couple of proper aircraft carriers this time! Could of done with 3 and not two!
Coffee House blog has this Cameron to Georgia this weekend, Miliband to visit next week
“David Cameron has stolen a further march on the government by heading out to Georgia before either the Foreign Secretary, who is going next week, or the Prime Minister. With Russian troops only 15 miles from Tbilisi, the Georgian government is keen for any signs of international solidarity and so Cameron can be assured of a warm reception. He will be there at the same time as a host of key players on the world stage—Condi Rice is in Tbilisi at the moment and several European leaders are expected there over the weekend—and his presence will highlight just how MIA Britain has been during the crisis to date. Amazingly, Miliband has yet to meet with the Georgian Ambassador to London.”
The last part is the most telling point, Miliband has yet to meet with the Georgian Ambassodor to London…
And surely the removal of the watchdog HMS Endurance from the South Atlantic in 1981,in retrospect,was a momuntental tactic howler-I respect Lord Carrington for resigning immediately as Foreign Secretary upon the Argentinian invasion
98
Ahem there’s a bit of a conspiracy on the oil and gas, even though there is some evidence that there is some there, there are those that say there ain’t.
Some even go as far as to say, that one oil company that was in the process of being taken over, claimed there was, and they’d found large deposits too boost its share price, to get a better deal.
I can’t confirm the truth of any of it, but it does seem suspicious that some oil and gas hasn’t managed to surface by now.
102.
Yes, very strange!
If Cameron wants to fly out to Tiblisi tomorrow thats up to him. In the grand sceheme of things, on the ground, it’ll make little differant. This will be settled between the Americans and the Russians. But if David Cameron thinks he can make a differance and make himself look important and show show Brown up in the process, then good on him.
NOt really Coldstone. The piece you quoted shows that the UK govbernment were very interested in what was hapening and also that they were concerned about teh stagnation of the islands. In fact they were taking a positive step.
Given that all decisions would be based upon respecting the wishes of the islanders I fail to see how these negotiations between two countries about how to move forward peacefully could in any way be considered a negation of interest on the part of the British.
Since it is a miserable wet Friday evening in contrast to yesterday, Below is the profile of the existing Tory PPC for Glenrothes, assuming he decides to stand at the by-election:
Maurice Golden - Glenrothes
Maurice is 28 years of age and lives in Newport-on-Tay. He is an Environmental Campaigns Manager for Keep Scotland Beautiful and firmly believes we must continue to reduce, re-use and recycle our waste.
Maurice joined the Conservative Party 1997 and has previously served as Chairman of the Dundee University Students’ Conservative and Unionist Association. In addition, Maurice was President of Conservative Future Scotland for three years.
At the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary Election Maurice was selected to fight the seat of Central Fife. He fought a positive campaign on the local issues and increased the Conservative vote in the constituency. Maurice has also stood as a Local Government Candidate.
Outside of work, Maurice enjoys playing football, travelling and writing. He has lectured in ‘Policing the early Nineteenth Century’ and has produced Research Papers in the diverse fields of History and Environmental Law.
Maurice is a graduate of Dundee University.
102. Having worked for an oil company….
The geology is right for oil. Right rock formations and all that. There is *some* oil. The question is whether there is oil in big enough fields to be worth extracting at *any* price. No good if you get a few hundred barrels and have to drill another hole.
No one has found a useful field there yet.
106. He also has no chance! Nevermind!
101
Not breally. The Brazilians do extremely well out of their oil and gas fields further north and all the indications are that there may well be considerable amounts of the black stuff down there. The two points you miss are that
1. Much of the interesting bits would be within the antarctic proper where exploitation is (rightly) forbidden.
2. Even with the oil price as it is now, exploiting the stuff down there would be bloody expensive and difficult. Given that there is a massive world wide shortage of oil rigs and that there are probably only two dozen or so in the world which could explore in those water depths and they are all tied up on long term contracts, it is not surprising that oil companies have concentrated on exploring and developing in areas which are slightly more accessible.
106
Anon. Snap. I am in the business myself.
107. True, very True! Maybe they have good potential lobster fishing?
I don’t eat any seafood (Other than seaweed!)but i watched this program on lobster/Crab fisherman in the bearing sea: think it was on channel 4! I found it terribly interesting and some of the Crab’s looked quite tasty actually! It was in the bearings straights off alaska. Shame they suddenly stopped showing it - very interesting the ‘crop’ they harvest apparently like the convergiant zone between artic ocean and ice pack and the warmer pacific current.
This is pathetic. The same people who are calling on Gordon Brown to ‘do something’ are exactly the same people who would denounce anything he does has an empty gesture when it has no impact whatsoever.
The USA and the whole of EU can’t do much about the situation. There is absolutely nothing that the UK can do.
What would David Cameron do if PM? Tell the Russians they’d been very naughty boys?
Someone posted some Lib Dem propaganda through my letterbox so I quickly posted it back out.
112. But the fact that the UK cannot do anything is the Labour governments fault due to defence spending cuts. What is defence spending down to 2.5% of GDP or something rediculous? We should have a 3 Nimitz class aircraft carriers at least, 1000 more tanks and about 500 more aircraft. Plus more nuclear war heads and the phased re-introduction of tatical nuclear weapons!
104
Sorry don’t accept that at all. It was obvious that the then UK government, (The political colour is irrelevant) was looking to reduce defence costs. The Falkland Islands was a defence committment to far, as far from the UK as Tokyo. The decision in the 1981 defence white paper, to reduce the RN’s surface fleet including disposing of the Invincible meant continuing to ‘defend’ the Falklands would be impossible.
The British government by even negotiating was showing its desire, to get out of its committment, The government of the Argentine took a gamble because it believed the UK government didn’t think the Falklands were worth defending: it was wrong.
Two reasons why the UK sent a task force, Mrs T knew she was finished if we couldn’t get them back, she gambled she won.
Most importantly the RN knew that their real enemy was in the MOD, and once they had succeeded, he would be the one to be sunk and not them.
113
I hope you’ve got bloody deep pockets, God knows what that lot would cost, when you think of the cost overruns on defence projects.
As for the aircraft carriers, don’t know how popular the re-introduction of national service would go down, each aircraft carrier would require 6,000 staff plus all the support staff you’d need to increase the RN by about another 40,000; good luck!
115. Fair comment - Just out of interest Coldstone where are you personally on nuclear weapons: just out of interest!
Brown can’t condemn Cam for doing it as he’d look like an idiot.
Meh, he looks like an idiot permanently anyway. David Cameron is only doing the same thing Obama is doing and it is less likely to backfire on Cam than it is on Obama.
116. Excellent! They would of course have to be British made!
Although we would need some of the US. planes to fly off them!
Spot on decision, Gordo has disappeared off the face of the earth, Millband is likewise pathetic in doing sweet FA, perfect timing for DC to show he is the PM in waiting. .
118. It has to be remebered that Cameron is leader of the opposition Obama is just a candidate in that sense Cameron is doing the right thing and i have no problem with it.
113. Martin! the last 2 conservative governments were equally remiss in making great spending cuts; chopping up the Army, reducing the Navy and cutting awaths in our Air Force.
Yes the Thatcher Government was guilty; Maggie didn’t have the strength to outvote her wets on this.
Seems fairly risky, partly because it plays to the ’stuntman’ image (huskies and all that) which he’s made a determined effort to live down, but mainly because it ties him closely to an extreme nationalist leader who may well do things that embarrass anyone who’s embraced him. I don’t think he’d go if he were PM and I don’t think GB should go either - it’s classically a foreign minister’s issue, as Miliband or Rice can go as part of their normal jobs without obviously taking sides.
In reply to Fluffy Thoughts on the last thread (165ish), I wasn’t getting £90K in 1997 to design web pages - I was szetting up and managing a 10-person department. It was in Switzerland, where salaries are generally higher than here.
113- why do the UK have to have nuclear weapons when our allies are silly enough to pay billions for them.
And why do we bother having an army either? Only ends up in pointless deaths in pointless conflicts.
98. I went to the Falklands last February and the islanders seem to firmly believe they have offshore oil and gas reserves about the same size as the North Sea before exploitation and are all looking forward to being millionaires in the next 10 years. For those interested there are only about 3500 resident Falkland Islanders and British immigrants are welcome but it will take 4 years of residency to qualify for a share in the anticipated oil bonanza. A fondness of geese, penguins,sheep and the isolated outdoor life along with a hatred of all things Argentinian is desirable if you wish to apply.
122. Yes, new beginnings and all that!
To be fair it is only the last 5 years or so that have exposed our shortcomings! Options for change was right at the time - a resurgent russia was not forecast on this scale at least!
You might not know this but i am not really a Thatcher fan: she frankly was embarrasing at times! Truely cringe worthy!
122- Nick I really do not think you need to justify your previous career to anonymous posters on pbCOM.
Anyway, hope you had a very good holiday.
119. I have heard that Gordo declaimed this evening on the evil Soviet’s, sorry, Russians. from his Southwold bunker.
126: thanks, tyson - it was great. As strenuous as the day job, but totally different, so feel perky and refreshed.
New Economist/YouGov poll :
McCain 40% .. Obama 41%
http://www.economist.com/media/econ11aug2008_tabs.pdf
129. Really these flash polls you keep posting Jack are getting boring. They wont begin to make sense untill well after the conventions. Say October.
Should Cameron be doing this?
No, probably not. He’s not PM and, whilst he won’t (I presume) be speaking in front of an adoring audience of thousands, the difference between his visit and Obama’s tour is, I feel, one of degree, not of kind.
130. As long as its complete info, its useful if you bet.
Thats for 131.
or 132 even.
131. Britain needs to show solidarity with those nations that fear renewed Russian aggression. The EU offers nothing to Georgia.
Cameron’s visit is saying to Russia that when the Americans decide to fight - whether it be over the Baltics who are NATO members, over Ukraine or even over Kosovo, Britain will be onside. Putin broke the negotiated terms of the Sarkozy/Medvedev meeting. He respects only one thing and that is military power, and a determined opponent.
He knows Germany and France are weak as shit, so someone has to show him that he cannot run amok around Eastern Europe. Brown’s hiding in his bunker as he does in all crises. Cameron has to show leadership, or Britain is on a par with the yellow bellies in France, Germany and Italy.
128- Nick- I think a holiday is supposed to exhaust you in a nice way- walking, sight seeing, sports, too much sun (not in the UK of course) and so forth…
I spent a week of mine at a golf hotel in Cornwall. Fantastic- but at breakfast I noticed my solitary Guardian resting next to a huge stack of Mails and Telegraphs for the other residents, and we had pictures of Charlie and Queenie plastered around the hotel for our (dis)pleasure.
Still during a week of golf, eating, drinking, more drinking, golf, and (did I mention) drinking no one, but no one mentioned Gordon or David, the credit crunch, the EU, the US election which kinda reassured me that outside pbCOMworld things are alot more normal.
Options for change was never right. It was based on the misguided idea that there was to be some sort of peace dividend from the end of the cold war when anyone who knew anything at all about military history knew the world would become a more, not less, dangerous place.
The idea of a peace dividend was circulated by the same idiots who thought that the EU was responsible for maintaining peace in Europe.
Complete morons.
Evening all
If David Cameron has been invited to Tbilisi by the Georgian leadership, then there’s no reason for him not to go. He’s not going as an official representative of the British Government so he can do what he likes. I suspect it will have very little political impact here as I don’t think the vast majority have given this conflict much thought at all.
Presumably William Hague will be accompanying him or perhaps he is on holiday at present.
The fact remains that Cameron has the luxury of Opposition. In Government he will need to establish a working relationship with Russia so he has to be slightly careful what he says now because he will have to deal with Putin/Medvedev from mid-2010.
132- sorry weathercock old boy but some of us are betting on these markets on a daily basis and using these polls as a reference point to make some money (at the margins admittedly).
So, please continue JackW- much appreciated. Saves me from scuttling around.
After all this is a political betting site and the US election will be the biggest political event in history.
138
Is that surprising , giving the expensive hostelry you stayed at. How much was it?? £130-£150 a night?
124. Isn’t Putin an extreme nationalist leader? He is the one following irredentist policies and invading the territory of his neighbours. Or does being ex-KGB exclude a person from such a description?
132 weathercock. In which case I dare say you have no interest in British polling until April 2010 !!
Polling changes markets …. remember the name of this site ??
Tyson - If you went to a resort somewhere in Cornwall, it must have been a Lib-Dem sort of area.
I hope the Telegraph and Mail-readers who were staying at your hotel really appreciated the area as much as you did. It’s really nice to get away from the Tory mind-set, isn’t it?
123, the Tories oversaw the end of the Cold War, it was natural defence spending should fall to an extent. By contrast, Brown and Blair have been effectively joyriding with the military but refused to give it the money it needed for the extra duties.
That said, I think both parties should commit to large increases in defence spending, if only to bring basic equipment, housing and medical care up to scratch.
Further, ghurkas should be guaranteed British citizenship if they want it after a certain length of service, and have full equal rights to their British comrades.
137 Fantasy world Tap! No doubt in your world Putin is quivering with fear in the Kremlin at the news of the Tory leader’s visit. At most he’ll get a footnote in the Kremlin’s copy book.
I doubt the White House will be pleased either. Who the hexk is this Cameron guy? None of his business. It also sets a great precedent for others to follow. If he acheives power it will be fun seeing opposition pols flying here there and everywhere flying the flag.
IMO he shouldn’t have gone, simply because he didn’t need to. That boy just can’t resist a photo op. In the current climate, where he walks on water, no doubt it will work out well. But he is moving from confidence into arrogance IMO and should be more careful.
Cameron has to be careful, though. Is he going to Georgia as private citizen Cameron? MP Cameron? Opposition Leader Cameron? PM-in-waiting Cameron? What do the Georgians expect? How will he comport himself and how will the media report it? If he appears to be meddling in foreign policy or sabre-rattling against the Russians, he could look amateurish and unprepared to be in government.
Three cheers for the EU Following EU pressure on the costs that mobile phone users have to pay for data roaming in Europe T-mobile has cut the rate from £7.50 a MB to £1.50. For junkies like me that will save a lot of money.
59. Interesting example, Zimbabwe. How many of the people who were demanding military intervation there to protect minorities from the abuses of an (imperfectly) elected government are the same as those rebuking Russia for intervening at all (as opposed to excessively) in Georgia?”
Who cares? Russia has repeateedly proved it’s a threat to our allies in Eastern Europe? There’s not much we can do about Georgia. But we should certainly be looking to back up Poland and the Baltics when their turn comes.
145 perhaps it was one of Mebyon Kernows areas of influence rather than the orange brigade.
149. Thank God. Those broken promises were all worth it in the end. Peace in Europe and slightly cheaper expensive texts.
117.
A modern carrier would have a much smaller crew - the current US carriers are essentially a 60s design. The next generation are looking at crews of a third or less….
I want 4 - and a contingent 4. And a young, fat, drunk, Liberal as the First Lord of the Admiralty. And an insurance based welfare state. And a settlement in Ireland…..
147 yes, he arrogantly accepted an invitation to go, what a self-serving cad. It would have looked much better if he had told the Georgians to buggar off and I am sure the lefties on here would not have made hay with it had he done so.
153. Yes the Nimitz class is outdated but that sort of size is what we need top spec!
One of my favourite films is The Final Countdown with the Nimitz! Top film! The bit that makes me laugh is when they go through the worm hole; the first time and Kirk Douglas starts hiting his own head - Very funy!
Not the affect they intended i am sure!
142-MTF- pretty much in that range.
I think it was the golf though rather than the cost that influences political preferences. Socialists do not particularly like trying to hoof a little white dimpled ball into a hole. Anyway, I think lefties are much more likely to book cottages.
145- C Clifford- Cornwall is delightful. You can feel the alternative, independent spirit, but the people there are so friendly.
154.
More interesting does this prove the old point that power has passed from the government to the opposition in this country: It looks to me like Cameron is PM in waiting and the Conservatives are a government in waiting.
Always interested to see NickP back, even if i am a bit dissappointed with his stance on Russia! Still Nick should be an interesting reference point for the Labour party conference this year! If you don’t mind me asking Nick are you going to this years?
132 Weathercock
They mean plenty to us punters! You do realise this is a betting Site?
Carry on, Jack!
Strong argument here on Kathleen Sebelius’s chances of being Obama’s running mate.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stephen-hancock/the-other-woman-running-m_b_118986.html
Look out for tomorrow’s Sun splash. It’s straight to the point.
160. eh? you tease what you on about?
154.”147 yes, he arrogantly accepted an invitation to go, what a self-serving cad.”
Absolutely, its apparently very unsympathetic to turn up in Georgia while the Russian tanks are few miles down the road as well.
161 - It is about Russia. I don’t want to say any more (not on a public site using my own name obviously) but as soon as we put it on the website I will post it. Presumably someone watching Sky News will mention it before then.
156 cottaging for lefties…
seriously though, I remember you asking about hols, I went to NE Scotland, topography brilliant, the jocks for the most part were most welcoming and hospitable. I cannot reccomend it enough. The Royal Marine Hotel at Brora was just utterly superb. (golf course adjacent for those who like chasing a dimpled ball..)
My wife went gold panning and came home with a few microscopic flakes, great fun, weather much better than here.
148
very good point, but at the moment DC doing something whilst the Govt loks paralysed and ineffective is the right move IMO.
PS
Scottish peoples views about Gordo are unprintable on a family website. IMHO Follow Easternross on the Fife by election. He knows whats what.
163. Great! I understand! Most intersting i should imagine!
On a more political (To the UK note) wonder if the Sun is going to defect to the Tories - I should imagine the Sun are on the Tories side on this?
Why on Earth would we need National Service to expand the Navy to the size it was about a decade ago? We didn’t need it then.
Slightly OT, but this “percentage of GDP” spent always does confuse me a bit - it’s a moving measurement. If GDP has doubled since time x but spending on category y has decreased from (for example) 8% of GDP to 6% of GDP, then I’d call that an increase in real terms.
After all, over the past 15 years, my spending on food as a percentage of my annual income has dropped considerably as I’ve moved on in my career - but I think that the quality of food (and the number of mouths fed) that I purchase has increased. So I tend to disregard most arguments based on “percentage of GDP” spent in whatever category.
If there was a well-publicised pending trip by Brown, I might agree that there would be questions raised about the timing. But if Gordo is going to sit in Number 10 rather than offend the Russians, all power to Cameron in getting off his backside.
164.”Scottish peoples views about Gordo are unprintable on a family website.”
MTF, some of us have been telling you that was the case for a while.
164. cottaging for lefties
Why do they call it cottaging anyone know - obviously ot is a way of picking someone up for some how’s your father if you are of that persuasion!
168
, but enjoyed reading papers one doesn’t usually come across, the Press and Journal, Scotland on Sunday etc etc
Yes I know, but given that Scotland has been pretty much Labour since time immemorial, its hard to take it in. Once you are on the ground, it becomes fairly clear.. No copies of the Daily Mirror in the Royal Marine Hotel incidentally
To All you betting guys. I apologise, carry on betting and posting.
169
Wiki says
Cottaging is a gay slang term referring to anonymous male-male sex in a public lavatory (a cottage or tea-room), or to the practice of cruising for sexual partners in public lavatories with the intention of having sex elsewhere.[1] The term may have its roots in the English cant language of Polari, or in the fact that many self-contained English toilet blocks have in the past resembled small cottages in their appearance.
170. Yes I know, but given that Scotland has been pretty much Labour since time immemorial:
I wouldn’t say that only from the 1970’s onwards really! The emergence of the SNP gives it hat appearance IMO.
164- rather fell into that one.
Next year Scotland. West Coast
So far today Russia has said that Georgia can forget about the enclves and has moved troops to within 35 miles of Tbilisi.
It has also threatened to unleash nuclear megadeath against Poland, so yes I think it is entirely appropriate that Mr. Cameron goes to Tbilisi.
172. Most interesting even though i am not of that persuasion.
So L*sbians cottage as well? Or do they meet elsewhere, I should imagine they are less likely to engage in it as casually as men due to phychollogy.
171- no worries weathers- to be honest when I first ventured on this site 2/3 years ago I thought they were an odd lot here obsessed with polls, that is until I learned a trick or two.
164 West coast , full of midges,”zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz” we went to Ullapool and places futher up on the west coast and got bitten… you have been warned…
Also fuel is 20p a litre more expensive on the west coast, Lord knows why….. Topography is still fantastic.
175. What they have threatened Poland with a nuclear strike?
Putin and the president of Russia are completly bonkers.
177- by the way I still do think folk here are a rather odd lot mind. Haven’t changed on that one!
It’s an obvious good move. There is a serious international problem. He wants to find out about it and show some support to the communities there. The people there want to talk to someone who almost certainly will be the next PM of the 4th biggest economy and 2nd most powerful country in NATO. No brainer.
178. Yes Ullapool is very nice! Did you see Grunyard island: they did germ welfare experiements using anthrax on there - I wonder if they have cleaned it up yet?
181. Don’t think the UK is the 4th anymore; due to sterling depreciation against the Euro the press said that France is bigger now: Plus China has overtaken us and possibly india too!
177 I only became obsessed by polls after the Tories took the lead. B4 them I used to take the Smithson rule to heart. If it was bad…it was a rogue. Ironically, I only found PB.com about the time DC came on the scene. I was all set fo vote for DD until DC made that speech…… and I changed my mind……. I am glad I did too.
181- unless Labour ditch Brown and bring in Miliband. 6 more years of targets, plans, reviews, consultations, Blears, Kelly, HIPs, reviews, to look forward to. Cannot wait.
182 no I didn’t but we saw a lot of the inner part of Scotland on those A roads with passing places. I had to stop for a nature call, and I looked at the triangular sign that said passing place and someone had altered the a to an I. I thought it most appropriate. In took a picture of it!
Good night all you pbEr’s. Off to watch a movie and finish off an exceptionally good Pinot.
177. Tyson. I’m a betting illiterate; How does one do it?
185
There wont be six more years. that’s why i think Gordo is done for. Will a voter go into a polling booth thinking I want Gordo as PM for 5 more years. Its unthinkable.
184. The thing i find interesting about Cameron is he looks and sounds like a leader, a PM! As said before i was struck by some co-workers about how positive they were about him in the leadership election when i saw him in Macdonalds in Leeds railway station!
Cameron though has always struck me as someone with potential, I always remember seeing him at Tory HQ: I was struck by his good manners and his amiability. Some folks with his background can be a bit up themselves but he seemed down to earth! Shame i never went for some pints with him! It would have been more enjoyable than the dull and pointless people i worked with!
186.
Yes they can be quite tight those places! Glad you used them for another purpose!!!
171 Weathercock.
No probs. Ego te absolvo.
178.”164 West coast , full of midges,”zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz” we went to Ullapool and places futher up on the west coast and got bitten… you have been warned…”
MFT, spent our holiday on the shores of Loch Torridon in Wester Ross. Great holiday, but I was eaten alive by the midges and still have the scars to prove it. Only two things seemed to discourage them, Avon’s skin so soft( I kid you not, squaddies swear by it) and standing next to an SNP activist drinking Isle of Jura.
190
I asked my wife about DC, She is not enthused by him, but she did say if her vote counted(my seat is Tory as can be) she would vote Conservative to keep Gordo out. She is very a political and I thought this quite striking.
I would be interested on Easterosses thoughts on this:
If Salmond is going to be a key part of the SNP election campaign at the next General election surely he is going to have to stand for the westminister parliament again?
If Salmond did not stand for Westminister the SNP could be shooting themselves in the foot and missing their unique opportunity to promote their agenda. Whilst i think Salmond would be a rare attender in the Commons - it would be pretty pointless for the SNP to campaign on Salmonds record in government in Scotland if he is not actually a candidate!
Think the SNP need to show some clarity on this in my opinion.
Well looking at skynews, its becoming more obvious we’re moving into a Cuba type situation. Georgia feeling confident of the West’s support and urged on by Cameron will probably send its forces back up against the Russians, and well’WW3′ by midday tomorrow.
I’ll probably end up living in a Cornish tin mine next to seant, and have to put up with him telling me its all the EU’s fault.
194. Yes, Love is an interesting thing - If the person i loved turned out to be communist i still would want to be with her!
I doubt she is a commie though!
196. Yes i have been thinking caves recently as well!
195 - he is not standing. That is clear enough.
Not really. Cornwall County Council is Lib Dem…. The MPs are all Lib Dem…. There may be a parish council or two that are Mebyon…. But the important thing is that there is not even a parish council that is run by the Tories! Cornwall is a marvellous place.
Lots of picturesque cottages too. Why do Tories want to pervert everything? I suppose they just can’t help it.
199. Could he front a campaign and win as many seats as some models predict by doing this? Could be a bit embarrasing IMO.
Evening all, I see my friend MTF has been busy this evening. Exactly one week ago he, his most charming wife and I were putting the world to rights over dinner in the small hotel run by friends of mine looking down over the Dornoch Firth.
You should all be aware that Mori are doing the groundwork for a poll as my mother had a charming young man on the phone this week. She who is not at all political was delighted to be polled. They were going big on who people think can clear up the economic mess i.e. Blair v Brown v Cameron. Also lots on Scots views on Westminster v Holyrood.
I will post more once I have caught up on all your postings.
A Labour win in the Rhondda!!
Council by-election result
Only one council by-election last night, but a great result for Labour and a hilariously bad one for the Tories (6th, with 1.6% of the vote).
Cilfynydd Ward, Rhondda Cynon Taff CBC. Lab gain from LD. Lab 331 (43.5%, +5.0%), LibDem 252 (33.1%, -19.9%), Ind 85 (11.2%, +11.2%), Plaid 69 (8.8% +0.2%), Green 14 (1.8%, +1.8%), Con 12 (1.6%, +1.6%). Swing from LD to Lab of 12.5% since 1 May.
posted by Luke Akehurst at 8:05 AM
Well thats unusual.
196. What you have to look at though is the overwelming suppiority of Nato over Russia. Not just in missiles if you add France, UK, Isralies etc into the equation but the non-nuclear forces. If we have to go to war so be it. It won’t happen IMO!
175. Sounded like something out of a Dale Brown novel - mind you they will playing the “mistranslated” card, I’m sure. I wonder what the Polish for “Our nuclear power program is completely peaceful and our space rockets are definitely only good for launching satellites” is?
203. So the Conservatives didn’t stand there last time?
202
Possibly the result of a rather nice bottle of Vieux chateau gachet 1998!! (lelande de pomerol) !!
I wonder how much the Tories had to pay out to get those 12 votes in Rhondda.
Lucky they have the Ashcroft millions to fall back on.
199 - if you live north of the Tweed you can see that he gets a fair amount of publicity compared to May 2007 and cannot see that changing even if it would be negative publicity. He would thrive on that I am sure. In the 2005 GE the SNP were almost invisible compared to the publicity given to the others. I cannot see that happening the next time now that he fronts the Government up here. You should read what ChrisD and Easteross have been saying for a while. Ditch the 2005 results and use the 2007 Holyrood results instead. Scotland has changed.
195 Martin, you have to start to begin to understand the new Scotland. I am sure Marcia will confirm what I am about to write. Maggie Thatcher Fan hadn’t realised the mood change in Scotland was so strong until he was here for a week and he was staying in LibDem country so you can imagine how much more extreme and polarised the views are further south.
Call him by whatever title you wish but be clear Alex Salmond is the Prime Minister of Scotland. The media are finally starting to recognise this. I meet few people of any political view who speak of him with anything other than respect. People may like him or loathe him but they respect him.
His Government has proved to be far more competent and successful than almost all outside the SNP could imagine. For the record I have always reckoned he had the making of a stateman.
I have been present when he has been with a small group of fairly high powered business leaders, when he has been with a wider group of europhiles, when he has been in a room full of hostile political opponents and when he has been working a large room of mixed company. Like David Cameron and Tony Blair the man has some of that gold dust which draws people to him.
Alex Salmond has already said that Scotland will be best served if a good number of SNP Westminster MPs are returned. History supports that. Between 1974 and 1979 with 11 MPs, the SNP had a great deal of influence and ultimately helped Margaret Thatcher topple the Callaghan Government.
Alex Salmond has already piloted through his party’s conference a change to the SNP constitution so that they can work with the Tories. He has said that in the right conditions he can support a David Cameron Government. He himself told me that his people and David Cameron’s people speak regularly. In Scotland he works well with Annabel Goldie the Tory leader though clearly there are many things the Scottish Tories will not support.
We have the ingredients for the SNP to secure a great deal from a David Cameron government if DC doesn’t get a decent majority.
To conclude Alex Salmond will not stand for Westminster even though there are many of us would love to see him take on Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and have said so (in my case to his deputy Nicola Sturgeon). However when the GE campaign officially begins, he will be giving his Westminster team huge support.
Tony Blair went all over the world as opposition leader deliberately seeking photo ops to make him look the part.
This doesn’t just make Brown look bad, it makes Milliband look bad too.
On the last thread I said as a joke in answer to the question, ‘Who is running Britain?’, that the country is decending on auto pilot. That is how it feels these days.
I am sure there are domestic considerations but he might just feel very angry at our embarrassingly inadequate response.
208. I don’t doubt that or your collective wisdom! As a non-scot it just strikes me as odd he will not be a candidate in an election that could mean a SNP win in seats and votes: I thought the SNP line was they win a majority of westminster seats = Indepence.
Labour gain a seat in the Rhondda! I suppose that counts for good news for them, these days.
Re 194
I asked my better half what she thought about Nick Clegg. She said “Who?”.
As already posted, the problem with DC’s visit to Georgia is that it could be seen as a publicity stunt. All he can offer is words of support with perhaps the suggestion of actual help when he gains power. It would look better if he could have talks with Russia as well. He is not, after all, a representative of the British Government and so could act in a personal capacity.
211 - that all changed with the setting up of the Scottish Parliament and the party insists there must be a referendum.
210- But isn’t there something unseemly of touring war zones in foreign countries with the purpose of making your own country’s government look bad? There is an old adage in American politics which has been much abused but which I believe is a good one for true patriots: politics stops at the water’s edge.
211.Martin check back through some of the threads before the Scottish elections, not one Scot (of any political persuasion apart from Libdems) had any doubts that Salmond would win that seat FPTP.
Would you walk away from being First Minister of Scotland to go back to being the leader of a smaller party at Westminster, especially when you are political stardust for your party North of the Border?
209. True, you have have changed my mind on it! But if interested folk never ask!
Personally i like Salmond! He comes across so well on the telly and interviews!
I have no doubt that there has been a sea change in scotland from what you and Marcia say! Maybe i am being, dare i say it academic in my questioning! But if those questions are never asked we are poorer for it!
Ok, is marvellous to recieve your feedback and thoughts and i am sure the next election will make the state (or components) of the UK stronger, no matter what the result might be! My preffered option would be Scotland being completly self governed but in a contradictory sense still under the defence umbrella of the UK. Maybe this will suit everybodies purpose rather than the arrangements at the momement where every side feel cheated.
78 G
He has a much better understanding of the situation than you give him credit for [no surprise there]. You obviously haven’t read all he has said. He has made specfic critisms of Georgia’s conduct in the escalation.
The over simplistic analysis is yours.
215.When the government leaves a political vacuum because its disintegrating before your eyes, I think that changes the political rules.
You would be better asking how its got to this, I doubt that any other PM and Foreign Secretary would have allowed things to drag on so long without taking some diplomatic action, and therefore giving the opposition this opportunity.
It says something when the Georgian government felt able to invite Cameron to visit after hearing his statement, while our own Foreign secretary is yet to even meet the Georgian Ambassador in London.
216. No that was not my point! It was just that the SNP might put in a stronger performance if Alex was a candidate! It is obvious to me that my thinking is not shared by others!!!!
Nevermind, I have a good PB record orhwerwise (Predicting certain events)! Maybe i called it wrong on this!
208. marcia: Ditch the 2005 results and use the 2007 Holyrood results instead.
Has anyone calculated notionals for the Westminster constituencies based on the 2007 Holyrood results?
200 Pervert = Conservative in a LD area. I think note deary.
There’s an old saying that might be appropriate here.
“Fools rush in…”
Night all. Hope it all goes well.
219- I suppose the invitation to Cameron is likely a clever ploy by the Georgians to 1) embarrass the Labour government that is slighting the Georgians and 2) shame them into taking some sort of action in defense of Georgia. Cameron is only too happy to play along.
215. That’s a very good adage. I think that’s one of the reasons why Brown’s Iraq visit was rightly pilloried. This has enough of a grey area for Labour to exploit and cast doubts on Cameron, but like on the northern cities report they will let it slide.
218. I’ll remember that when I want to lead a country. He is visiting at the request of the Georgians, that to my mind seems naive and like he is being used for political points, I could be wrong. Cameron’s not perfect, you are allowed to criticise him Sally.
Cameron’s visit to Georgia will be seen as a sign of support from the next British PM.
Long term, Short Term, Gordon Brown is irrelevent.
149 - I really want out favourite birthday boy (Mr Knox) to come on and read that post before his insobriety causes him to slumber. I imagine the response could be spectacular!
ON TOPIC - I think Cameron is within his rights to go and visit these places, as much as Antarctica or Rwanda or anywhere else.
If the representatives of HMG, messrs Miliband and Brown choose not to visit, that is to their detriment and ours. I think they should have been there a week ago. Mr Cameron should not feel constrained.
217 I realised that he is different to the normal politicians when we invited Alex Salmond to have a meeting in Dundee in late Nov 2006 under the ‘AN Audience with AS’. I have to admit is was really set up to promote our candidate for Dundee West. We put out invitations around and on a very wet Friday evening (it was really pouring down) we thought we would be lucky to fill a dozen or so seats in the Marryat Hall - over 300 people turned up and from the questions and a rather enthusiastic public I thought there is something stirring here.
224. The US. could take Russia on with one arm behind there back!
You must be very proud of such a miltary?
220.”216. No that was not my point! It was just that the SNP might put in a stronger performance if Alex was a candidate!”
Martin, the SNP might have a much stronger performance if Alex Salmond is First Minister of Scotland in an independence referendum.
221 - if you have the patience and time you can find out the exact voting figures for each consituency by studying the 2007 votes cast by ballot box. The link to the voting figures is:
http://www.scotlandoffice.gov.uk/our-communications/documents.php?doctype=pubs
182 Martin, the island of Gruinard was decontaminated 20 years ago of anthrax and handed back to its owners.
In my earlier posting I meant to say that my mother had the young man from Mori on the phone this evening, not this week.
I wonder how often Nick Palmer will be expected to travel up to Fife by train between now and October?
If any of you are planning a wee trip up to the Highlands, my advice is to fill your petrol or diesel tank full in either Tesco or Morrisons in Inverness because that is the least expensive fuel in the Highlands, currently 111.9 per litre for unleaded. An hour north from Inverness where MTF was staying the same unleaded is now around 120 per litre. The SNP Government has “begged” Labour at Westminster to apply to the EU for an exemption which then permits the Government to introduce flexible tax rates in ultra rural areas as several mainland European countries have done. Labour has flatly refused and we will not let this countryside hating Government to forget it come the GE.
Identifying the Russians of Russia: This is a very nice thing to understand. Brown is easy to learn and can be very profitable. I know when it comes to an interesting reference point, a Local Government Candidate usually suggest to not follow the Labour governments fault, but I’ll explain in change.
229- I actually think it would be pretty tough to contend with the Russians on their own territory (or on territory near Russia, such as Georgia). In a hypothetical scenario where the U.S. did everything in its power to defend and liberate Georgian territory in outright war, I don’t really see a happy ending to that effort.
127: yes, I’ll be at the conference, Martin. I skipped it for a couple of years when it started to seem repetitive, but went last year and enjoyed it.
By the way, lots of past thread themes have been quietly buried, haven’t they? Is Labour going bankrupt? Nope - the creditors have all agreed to convert their loans to gifts or defer repayment for 5 years. Are the unions preparing for a conference coup? Nope - the deadline for resolutions has (I think) passed. Is there a round-robin signed by numerous dissident MPs? Nope - or if there is, they’re jolly quiet about it. Is there anyone out there who *still* thinks they know the PLP and they’re certain GB will be forced out by the conference?
231.
Thanks, marcia.
209. Easterross. Great post. I have always been a big Alex Salmond fan. Partly because he is a fellow punter. But you are right he has a bit of gold dust. Not sure whether you have made a prediction to date on how many seats the SNP will win at the next GE? I would be interested in your best guess?
On Miliband’s lack of response to the Georgian situation: I would guess that he has been reluctant to project himself above Brown on this issue -in the light of recent events- and as usual Brown has dithered. Brown would view any comments by Miliband suspiciously as an attempt to increase his profile and positioning as the heir apparent. So, on thread, into this vacuum steps Cameron. A bold move but not as risky or presumptive as Obama’s Berlin rally.
Newsnight are now discussing a new “Cold War”. McCain’s chances appear to be increasing by the day and the polls are moving in his direction. If Jan from Norway is looking in I would be fascinated to hear his view on McCain’s chances.
Newsnight saying that Russia is an ecomic super-power - I don’t think so!
Russia is not even a Miltary super-power, they do not have any global reach maybe regional but certainly not global. yes some western states are semi-dependent on russian exports but in a world market - gas can always be imported from elsewhere. Russia may well slit there own necks in the long run IMO.
Strangely after Cameron’s visit was announced Gordon Brown managed to call Georgia and promise humanitarian aid and say the Russian invasion was a “completely unjustified violation of Georgia’s territorial integrity” (Miliband doesn’t seem to have been involved).
As the UK’s stated position seems to be on the lines Cameron is taking I cannot see that he is in any way compromising UK interests. Just a shame Gordon Brown & government are consumed with navel gazing and leaking titbits on their re-launch to friendly newspapers.
232. Thanks! Interesting post as ever!
221 LS, I prepared 8 sets of predictions covering all Scotland in June. Mike has them and intends to publish them along with those from other PBers covering Wales and English regions in the months ahead. We had the Highlands and for daring to suggest the SNP might take 2 seats from the LibDems, I got my head in my hands. Since then we have seen the LibDem vote collapse in Glasgow East losing almost 3/4 of their 2005 vote (12% down to 3%) and we await their result in Glenrothes with interest given that they won the adjacent by-election somewhat spectacularly in 2006 (before the SNP sweep in Scotland in 2007).
234.”Is there anyone out there who *still* thinks they know the PLP and they’re certain GB will be forced out by the conference?”
Nick, is there anyone in the Labour party who still thinks that they can win the next GE with Gordon Brown at the helm, that the PLP, cabinet Ministers and the PM won’t carry on briefing against each other in the press while the Unions set government policy?
PS. Can you afford a GE now, next year or even the year after?
215. Sadly Blair with his weapons of mass destruction and 90 days and Gordon with his 42 days ended any gentleman’s agreements about boundaries.
Not that I would want Cameron to decend to their level.
Cameron’s touring has been relatively low key and not always to war zones!
In this instance, having been invited, what would be made of a refusal?
As for making the Government look bad…..well… you can’t make as a silk purse out of a sow’s ear.
228 Marcia, you also had the advantage of having Joe Fitzpatrick as your Holyrood PPC. I knew Joe when he was a student in Inverness and he showed signs of being a bright chap then. Apart from Alex Ferguson increasing the Tory majority over the SNP from 90 to over 3000 in Galloway, Joe winning Dundee West was my favourite result of the night.
Completely O/T and Apols if this has previously been posted on PB.com, but I just couldn’t resist.
Steve McClaren - what a complete clog!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3ZfiIACbM0
I have noted it, Tory Boy. I was not saying that a Tory in a Lib Dem constituency had to be a pervert. Forget it.
I was talking in that part of my posting about the word “cottage”. For most people, that is a home, for somebody, if not for oneself.
For the “normal” Tory, it is an investment opportunity. For some of our more depraved Tory friends on here, it means sex.
I am not keen on either, by the way. I prefer the rural way of life.
237. One thing the EU could do is to announce with great fanfare a continent-wide plan to switch to a large percentage of energy production from nuclear power in, say, twenty years. That would really screw Russia, because their belligerent attitude to the west is founded on the belief that they can rely on their oil and gas reserves to keep the economy booming without taking the steps necessary to opening up the country to investment - in other words, without ridding the country of the ludicrous corruption that ensures the current elite stays in power and drives off foreign companies.
Who ever said that eurosceptics don’t come up with anything positive about the EU? Of course, it won’t happen because the numptocrats in Brussels have pinned their cloud-cuckoo-land hopes for a future federal state on the green vote.
234. Thanks Nick! Hope you are well!
Should be interesting anyway!
It may well be one of those conferences where the government anounces quite a few new policies! Even if the leadership is not a question! I cannot say what the PLP thinks or indeed the Labour party! It must be an interesting time due to some of the chatter!
I suppose the Labour party is at a point where it may look at a more socialist agenda due to the obvious pressures from some people wanting a new leader.
I have just seen the sun headline about Russia threatening poland! Takes me back a few years! Hopefullly it will amount to nothing! Russia seem to be asserting themselves at this time - what is worrying is nobody has knowledge of their fall back position!
244. Peter. LOL! The interviewer speaks better English than he does!
236 currently my prediction is Labour down 14, LibDem down 4, Tories up 6, SNP up 12 but within that there are around 10 seats which could go in more than 1 direction. I had Glenrothes to go SNP and if there was to be a byelection (remembering I was writing in June) I predicted Labour would be toast.
Nick, maybe Labour has been able to persuade its lenders to keep it afloat but sadly that is not the case for the record number of people going bankrupt, the 60,000 who have become unemployed over the past 3 months even by the dodgy figures your Government adheres to and the entire non-commercial property sector has ground to a halt. Also during the past week estate agents have reported 25% of current buyers have pulled out of house purchases because your incompetent Chancellor hinted he might impose a stamp duty holiday and then didnt have the courage to admit or deny it when challenged by the media. Welcome home Nick.
242- I guess the invitation does give Cameron excellent cover and effectively subdues any criticism. But he still has to be very careful how he plays it. The more low-key, the better, and he can let others do the promoting of his voyage.
I always liked the pig with lipstick analogy better myself, but there’s no accounting for taste, is there?
243 - my first memory of him is of a skinny lad (when he had hair - ginger I think) when he first came to meetings all those years ago. He is very bright and a workaholic MSP too and cultivating a good personal vote. He always seems hyperactive.
Well here’s our leader column on the issue. Seems like we support Cam (and bash the Gov)
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
Russia is not a superpower. It is a dangerous power, as is North Korea and Iran - but it is not a superpower.
234 - So all is well in the Labour Party?
Keep repeating it, Nick. It might come true.
234- Are you sure you aren’t Nosferatu, MP for Transylvania? You seem to often do your posting at all hours of the night here at PB, which means you either are awake by night and sleep by day or you never sleep. Quite amazing!
Olympics…In 2004, Russia was 3rd. 2008, 8th, behind Australia, South Korea and Italy.
248 stjohn - Incredible isn’t it? When i heard it (over and over again) on Radio 5 Live, I thought he must be taking the pi$$, but having now watched the video, I honestly don’t think he was.
How long has he been in Holland? - It must be all of two months.
253 Military…big yes - but could it conventionally defeat a country like Turkey? Perhaps yes. Perhaps no.
Population….140million and falling.
253 Russian Population…I doubt if russian women, addicted to their svelt figures and leopard skin trim boots would go back to the slave, drudgery of the mothers and grand mothers.
249. Thanks Easterross. So I make that 18 SNP seats if we are using the last GE as the benchmark.
Now just waiting for the vote from Norway…?
258 - Without using Nukes Russia is pretty knackered militarily. In a way, that is what makes them now so scary.
257. Appointed on 20th June: http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/europe/7427342.stm
252 David, forgive my ignorance but are you a well-known journalist type? I like the piece in your paper and as I said earlier today I am sure that is how many people aware of the Georgian crisis will be thinking.
Clearly the Georgians like others including both Obama and McCain are viewing David Cameron as the coming man, the one they will be dealing with in under 2 years time.
It is interesting to compare this also with Alex Salmond. I was invited to a reception he hosted for the Croatian PResident and Deputy PM in Edinburgh a few months ago. The President consistently referred to Eck as “Mr Prime Minister” and Eck was accorded the status of PM by what will after all shortly be the Head of State of the 28th member of the EU.
It is lovely in all this world crisis stuff to see the Norwegian king ordaining his Ambassador to knight a King penguin at Edinburgh Zoo today. Never thought I would be jealous of a penguin
257. Peter. I hadn’t heard it before. I bet it was even funnier on the radio. It wouldn’t have been so obvious that it was just an abjectly awful attempt to ingratiate himself with his newly adopted country.
Mind you, I have to confess to have spoken equally awful English to non-English speakers in the past. But as his interviewer spoke English very well, he ended up looking extremely foolish.
After the first Gulf War the Russians..or the CIS..or whatever they were at that time realised they were knackered miltarily anyway. They just watched a surrogate taken apart.
In fact the 1st Gulf War sent shockwaves through many militaries formerly believed to to be powerhouses as they realised that big as they were the Americans in particular and West in general would stuff them like a christmas turkey in any conventional conflict.
Despite all the talk of the Iraq invasion being a disaster, the actual invasion was a roaring success, which just pressed the point home. The post invasion phase was a horlicks until recently, mind you.
260 I now would be surprised if it is less than 20 for the SNP and more than 25 for Labour. There are enough 3-way or even 4-way marginals around so that when you factor in little local difficulties, the totals can change quite a bit. For example the Tories could pick up anywhere from 4 to 10 seats and I have tended towards the lower end.
The two key factors are what the Scots who deserted the Tories in 1997 do. Clearly most of those living in SNP seats will stay SNP with 1 possible exception but there are roughly 200,000 voters who have deserted the Tories in the past decade in SCotland and even accepting possibly 25-50,000 of them are dead, there appears to be a strong growth among students in support for both the SNP and Tories. If the GE is held during term time then student votes could be crucial in Aberdeen, Edinburgh, Dundee, Inverness, Glasgow, Stirling, Dumfries and Carrick etc.
266 Sorry I forgot the second key factor is what happens to the 3rd party in each seat and where the SNP were. You should also reflect upon the council elections on the same day in 2007. With the move to STV, there is now a clearer idea of how voters think in each constituency.
SKY just played the Steve McLaren tape. To quote a well know TV advert: PRICELESS!!!
265.Yokel, interesting post. Looking at the media pictures this week, the Russian military looked very old and tired compared to the Americans. I thought that the Afghan War and the end of the end of the Soviet Union seriously depleted Russia’s military stock, it does not seem long ago that we saw pictures of their Navy rusting away dockside?
266; Interesting Easterross. Out of interest, what do you have down as the six Tory seats in Scotland?
Also, what happened to your Scottish regional predictions threads? Did I miss them or has there only been the Highlands one? When will be seeing them Mike?
224
Even foreigners look at the polls. Mr Cameron is likely to be the next PM, so establishing a good relationship with him now would be good politics for the Georgians.
261 “Without using Nukes Russia is pretty knackered militarily. In a way, that is what makes them now so scary.”
I can see Russia going nuclear to avoid losing. Putin is a character direct from the Sopranos/Casino.
That is why nuclear deterrent is important.
Just FYI, the “Estonian Navy” on Wiki has been hijacked by Russian Nashi type hackers.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_of_Estonia
I’m not sure what they did aside the vandalism so, if you look, make sure you have Javascript switched off.
Just how sure are the Sun that the British Government have been inactive on the Georgia-Russia issue? How sure are the contributors to this site that the Government has not been acting behind the scenes during this crisis? I dislike Gordon Brown as much as any contributor to this site, but I think the criticism being leveled at him and the Foreign Secretary at the moment is unjust.
Maybe they have been inactive, maybe they haven’t.
WE SIMPLY DON’T KNOW what has been happening in diplomatic circles. The players in the game don’t tell us, or journalists, what is going on until everything is a done deal.
266.”The two key factors are what the Scots who deserted the Tories in 1997 do.”
I agree, do they vote SNP or Tory if they really want to give Labour the boot at Westminster? Equally, if you are a former Labour voter who switched to the SNP in 2007 because you were relaxed about them beating Labour, do you stay with them for the GE if it helps the Conservative party get into power? And what to do if you were a Union supporting Libdem voter until 2005?
Tactical voting galore for a multitude of reasons at the next GE, it going to cause a few surprises.
Brendan Barbour of TUC to hold talks with David Cameron!! Brown nightmare. Unions fund Tories? Maybe not but quite a coup for Cameron
“What worries me is that McCain’s eagerness for more conflict in the world - pushing Russia and China into a corner - is not in the best interests of the United States. It may be moral; it may be exciting; it may provide the great national purpose McCain thinks we all need to feel. But it ignores the hard trade-offs involved, and perpetuates the whole with-us-or-against us bluster of the last eight years. We need more of that? More enemies? Less diplomacy? More conflict?
Count me out.”
Short memories or short term thinking?
http://andrewsullivan.theatlantic.com/the_daily_dish/2008/08/coyne-on-georgi.html
bizarre headline :
MEP helps 20 Cows get pregnant
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/7556951.stm
how was it for moo?
271- The Russians wouldn’t hesitate to use tactical nukes if they thought it was in their interests.
269 Tholster, you will have to wait until Mike chooses to use them and on the advice of Morus, you will have to wait until you see the predictions to see the potential Tory gains.Strangely I can see everyone winning seats, even Labour
273.Sarkozy is brokering an EU ceasefire deal backed by the Americans between Georgia and Russia. Merkel was visiting the Russian President and Condi Rice has been in Georgia. And David Miliband has been invisible, and has failed to even meet the Georgian Ambassador to Britain.
Got to love the BBC
Only reference to Dave’s trip is on the politics page
GB nowhere as`highlighted above
So Browns press goons issue release that Brown has`”phoned” the Georgian president
So now, Brown “comment” is on front page news ticker and Cameron trip has disappeared
I am getting increasingly confused as to who pays for the BBC - The Labour Party or the license payer
263 - No. I am a complete nobody who only gets let loose occasionally to write on Big Brother and American politics for the website. Even then it is only because the reporters are all in bed by the time American votes are finalised!
I’m a sub at Sun Online, basically.
Previously, I was Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland editor at Dod’s for a few years and have written a lot of constituency profiles for the first four editions of Dod’s Constituency Guide.
Russia will use a ceasefire to do what it likes. If Georgia resists,Russia will use it to escalate (again).
The lamest argument of the rapist and murderer - dont resist or it will only make it worse for yourself. Of course they prefer the victim to lie still.
263 - The penguin story is excellent. Some great pictures too.
For those who missed it!
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1565369.ece
277 Marcia, Alyn spends part of every holiday doing “ordinary jobs”. He has done for several years now. He is also quite open in stating he works closely with his fellow Scottish MEPs of all parties. He has a particularly good working relationship with Struan Stevenson the leading Tory. They have worked closely together on farming and fishing issues. He is a really good guy and I would not be surprised if he is the first Scottish MEP elected in 2009
Russia’s threats to Poland, Georgia, Ukraine & Baltics are nothing new. Those countries remember very well.
However, consider if Germany became nazi again and attacked Israel. The 2nd time, they would not make such passive victims.
276- “What worries me is that McCain’s eagerness for more conflict in the world - pushing Russia and China into a corner - is not in the best interests of the United States. It may be moral; it may be exciting; it may provide the great national purpose McCain thinks we all need to feel. But it ignores the hard trade-offs involved, and perpetuates the whole with-us-or-against us bluster of the last eight years. We need more of that? More enemies? Less diplomacy? More conflict?
Count me out.”
Now I’m going to change just three words: McCain to Roosevelt, Russia to Germany, and China to Japan. With those edits, this could very well have been a quote from a tract of the America First movement, circa 1940.
“What worries me is that Roosevelt’s eagerness for more conflict in the world - pushing Germany and Japan into a corner - is not in the best interests of the United States. It may be moral; it may be exciting; it may provide the great national purpose Roosevelt thinks we all need to feel. But it ignores the hard trade-offs involved, and perpetuates the whole with-us-or-against us bluster of the last eight years. We need more of that? More enemies? Less diplomacy? More conflict?
Count me out.”
Highest rate of repossessions since 1992. Great statistic for Mr “No return to Tory boom and bust”
287 - Very good point. Putin is the danger here, not McCain. If McCain attacked Mexico I would think he was at fault.
Not a wise move by Cameron. I can’t see how this helps him at all. Risky, very risky…
Anyway, off to cider country tomorrow very early for a week. Not a LD constituency in site - I will be in Normandy.
288- As long as it’s all bust and no boom, you can’t really call him out as a liar on this one.
281 Everything will change after the next election. Give the BBC goons enough rope…
Good night all, hopefully by the time I rejoin you, that excellent girl from Mansefield will have got her second gold medal, Ben Ainslie will have earned his knighthood, the 3 blonds will have all gone gold and our rowers and cyclists will all be seeing gold.
I feel so safe in my bed because Gordon Brown is running the country. Sorry that was a pre-sleep nightmare.
280 - that’s what’s so interesting about this whole thing from a Labour leadership perspective. Surely, if Miliband was planning a leadership challenge, he would be using this perfect opportunity to get himself on the media on a regular basis, and be seen as a “leader-in-waiting”?
The fact that he isn’t shows either:
a) he hasn’t got the bottle; or
b) he has poor political antennae for failing to recognise this opportunity; or
c) he is being constrained by Brown (pending reshuffle); or
d) he isn’t planning a leadership challenge.
282 Don’t sell yourself short, David. Tell ‘em about your triumph on “Eggheads”.
276 McCain has to make a choice if he becomes President between Russia and China. IMHO with resurgent imperialism in Russia the USA should continue the China policy its had since Nixon, as China currently is not looking to be confrontational and its prosperity is built on trade not oil.
China cannot be happy with Russian actions on Georgia as it is very strong on territorial integrity and sovereign rights, particularly because of the minorities it has in all its border regions particularly in central Asia and Tibet.
SBS have a safe journey and a pleasant trip. See you safely back soon.
288 - with unemployment up by 60000 whatever happens to house prices (and I think we know what will happen) things can only get worse in the short term.
281.nadds, I noticed that too. I did wonder if the Beeb had enjoyed a heated phone call from somewhere in the No10 bunker about not giving the visit any prominence. Not surprised that after days of dithering, we now see the Brown camp going into frenzy. You can just see him dropping everything and working round the clock to try and salvage something for his position rather than the government.
He does not have either the skills or natural political ability to be a good PM.
I see from Nick Palmer’s post that the Labour party’s position is that the democratically elected leader of Georgia is “an extreme nationalist leader.”
And, ergo, it was legitimate for the even more democratic Russians to subvert parts of Georgia and then invade it?
Nick, wouldn’t you say Putin and his Presidential Puppet are dangerous and extremist nationalist leaders of Russia, or is it OK in Russia but not in Georgia?
Is your old affinity with Russia as the home of ‘the workers’ international revolution’ stirring again?
297 - Merci. Bonne nuit!
290.SBS, have a good holiday, we were in rain soaked Brittany last year.
If you thought the UK economy was in trouble read this
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/08/15/cneuro115.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
Gerald Warner thinks Russia may affect the US presidential election:
“…an international crisis that is not merely diplomatic but an actual shooting war, in which the United States is intimately involved, is manna from heaven for McCain.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/gerald_warner/blog/2008/08/15/obama_could_be_a_worse_casualty_of_georgia_crisis_than_saakashvili
282 - You’re being too modest. You’re at one of the best anglophone newspapers in the world (seriously) and it is a great brand. Being with the online edition is about the smartest move a journalist can make at the moment (I think broadsheets made out of paper will be like vinyl records in 5-10 years), as referenced by Jonathan Isaby moving from the Telegraph to be Dep Editor at ConHome.
I know the chap who does roughly your role at the Mirror Online, and trust me, you are very very well placed indeed.
Incidentally, I had the new Bebo TV star, “Sam King” in my living room the other night - he’s a friend of my flatmate. Reckon that’ll really take off? The daily episodes are getting about a million viewings. Up your professional street (next gen reality TV)?
280 Merely relating a list of actions performed by various people IN THE OPEN, does not prove or disprove my point.
I am not saying that the British Government has been active on this issue. I am not saying that they have been INactive (Though it would not surprise me in the least).
All I am saying is that WE DON’T KNOW FOR SURE.
Diplomacy that goes on behind the scenes is supposed to be secret. Putin could be talking to Bush at this very minute, while we are all being distracted by talk of DC going to Georgia.
260. Oslo here!
269. I would guess that 5 of Easterross’s hopes for gains for the Tories would be:
Dumfries and Galloway; East Renfrewshire; Berwick, Roxburgh and Selkirk; Edinburgh South; Edinburgh South West.
Hard to find the 6th one - the SNP are the more likely challengers in Argyll and Stirling.
Three Line Whip is interesting:
“Whilst one of those behind the controversial Policy Exchange report, Cities Unlimited, denied his Lib Dem credentials, further evidence reaches me of the involvement in that party of co-author, Tim Leunig.
Leunig, I can reveal, has stood for elected office as a Liberal Democrat. In 1998, he was a candidate at the London Borough elections for the White City & Shepherd’s Bush ward of Hammersmith and Fulham.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/jonathan_isaby/blog/2008/08/15/policy_exchange_and_the_lib_dems_part_3
294
Yes, Eddie, that’s what struck me. As Foreign Secretary, and a potential leadership contender, I would have thought that he would have been putting himself about.
304- Maybe Obama should have himself filmed riding around perched in an open tank hatch to bolster his image as Commander in Chief. Oh wait, somebody already tried that…
By the way, Cameron will have told the FO about his visit and they will have briefed him on the politics, military and security situation and will have provided input to the planning. They will almost certainly have someone(s) on site to do an update and act as advisor. That is standard procedure for the LHMLO.
300 You should remember that Nick Palmer is “of Russian origin”. He is also an “ex-communist”.
306.”All I am saying is that WE DON’T KNOW FOR SURE.”
Well, I think that the verdict among most people observing the government this week is that they have been missing in action.
I’m tired of battling an unco-operative desktop, so I’m off to bed.
Night all.
313 Perhaps the Labour government is following Nick Palmer’s advice on leadership & courage during a crisis, hide behind your Guardian and hope nobody sees you.
305 - I think the hits that the small micro-soaps get online suggest that they are a growth industry. How they will make money as stand-alone entities is interesting and is less clear (though as part of Bebo that wouldn’t be an issue).
I love working on the website and we do seem to get more respect than the equivalents at some other newspapers. Mainly because unlike other papers our website and paper have similar editorial policies.
It is my hope that one day we start an online edition of the Irish Sun thus enabling me to live in the Meath countryside! Assuming I get promoted to Night Editor to make the move obviously.
We’ve just started building the Scottish edition so it will be interesting to see what numbers that does 12 months from now.
234: There’s one past thread theme that hasn’t been buried, Nick — remember how Labour was supposed to recover over the summer?
Well you’re still 20 points behind.
I don’t see the problem.
If Cameron waited until Miliband / Brown had stopped dithering and gone there, he could have waited forever.
234 Nick Palmer. So you are stuck with GB for the General Election after all - what rotten luck! Re DC trip to Georgia - didn’t Paddy Ashdown make a similar visit to the Balkans, when he was LibDem leader? Can’t remember.
304. Dave B. That’s what I’ve been saying here for a while now. I think McCain will soon be level on the polls and much closer in the betting.
287 - It’s difficult to believe that any intelligent person really does see the Russians as the subhumans that you and others are painting them as, although it is a tactic of recent memory.
When people screw up you do not let them screw up again, the US administration have been a foreign policy disaster area, if they are let loose on this one then it may be terminal for them (as a party obviously but, worryingly, for the nation)
A more useless, crackpot bunch of people it would be difficult to find.
287 - I also omitted you equation of today’s Russia with Nazi Germany. I only have to presume you hadn’t thought that through, so sickening is the thought that anyone really believes that.
What is the future for Russia? According to the article below, its population will fall from 142 million currently to under 100 million by 2050.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/david_blair/blog/2007/08/23/putin_denies_russias_steady_decline_
304 - Err, McCain is the continuation of the Bush disaster in foreign policy, I know that the far right will continue to support him but, with anger at Iraq waning slightly, this will, after a week or two, only remind independents of how they were conned before and they may well shift accordingly.
They are treating the US public as stupid and with the memory of a goldfish again. I don’t believe the electorate will make that same mistake twice.
321 While I agree US policy around Iraq and Guantanomo Bay has been extremely damaging history may be kinder to the Bush presidency than it now appears. He had significant victories in getting both North Korea and Libya to cease their nuclear programmes, halted the spread of islamism, though Pakistan and Afghanistan remain a concern, Indonesia & Philippines are much improved, supported East and Central Europe, US has done well in Africa in supporting HIV/Aids and development.
Overall his presidency will be remembered for its failures but perhaps not in such a damning way as it now appears.
320 - Short term only, until it resurrects the Iraq/competency issue that Obama has profited so much from and which, in recent months, had become one that voters had begun to see as less important.
That’s before you get on to the shady links between McCain, lobbyists and Georgia where the campaign ammunition being dug up is extensive.
Two words for the electorate - Remember Iraq.
321- News flash: McCain is not in the Bush administration! Difficult distinction for some to make, but a vital one.
Who called the Russians subhuman? Classic straw man argument.
While no parallel is ever perfect in the real world, it is still legitimate to make them when they’re apt on the relevant elements. Russia is an expansionist agressor with shadowy intentions, as was Germany in 1940. A person blind to the dangers in 2008 is like a person blind to dangers existing in 1940. Whether other elements are parallel or not is irrelevant to the analogy, as irrelevant as is your argument.
325 - He appears to have helped to publicise and spread Islamism rather than reduce it.
327 - McCain is using the Bush template to foreign policy, his foreign policy is, in fact, even more hawkish.
You must have missed the numerous posts talking about Russians as somehow separate and, now, with a focus on their atrocities, it’s the same when people want any war, just look at the language used and propaganda spread.
You equated Nazis to Russians, you know exactly what that means and I’m surprised you haven’t stepped back on that.
Unfortunately this is the *US* electorate we’re talking about…
328.ukpaul, the Bush administration has made Foreign policy mistakes, but those terrorists groups need the oxygen of publicity to spread islamism, and its why they carry out atrocities such as the one we saw on September 11th.
329- What is the Bush template on foreign policy? Is McCain planning to use it or not use it, as you’ve suggested both in the same sentence?
Since you refuse to understand my point about the parallel between the apparent threat posed to America by Germany in 1940 and the threat posed to global stability by Russia in 2008, there’s no point going on and on about it. I’m sure other readers, like David Roe above at 289, figured it out a long time ago.
We all look forward to hearing more about how great Russia is and how thoroughly evil Republicans are.
331 - And all that goodwill flushed down the pan by leaving Afghanistan in danger and flouncing around in Iraq instead, turning it into a terrorist honeypot and testing ground of extremism and making it the greatest recruiting agent possible for Islamists.
They couldn’t have believed their luck that Bush was re-elected.
More of that? No thank you!
329 Well the ether has swallowed my response and I’m too tired to work out the banned word. In short Islamism was advancing in the 90’s, it no longer is.
UK Paul you are rightly demonising the Nazis compared to the current Russian regime. But what Stars and Stripes is saying is that those who suggest the US can ignore the threat to Eastern Europe are wrong and that there are parallels. Surely you can see the parallels?
Hawkishness is not necessarily wrong. My main problem with US and her Allies’ hawkishness at the moment is that it seems to be tied to natural resources rather than right and wrong.
Mugabe is a sore on the ass of the West’s military policy.
333 - Whose fault is it that Bush was re-elected? The Democrats that’s who.
I reckon Sooty (a glove puppet for those who don’t know) could have beaten John Kerry.
332 - Extend it, that should have been obvious.
Your last comment sums up your problem, it’s all black and white, good and evil, with us or against us. You seek to paint others views like that also because, by doing so, you can dismiss them without thought.
The world is not like that and people who treat it as it is get their fingers badly burnt, as the US has in the last six or seven years.
Give me a government that reacts via its head rather than its emotions, one that sees foreign policy as a game of chess rather than a shoot em up video game. The testosterone should be in the troops not the strategists.
“Since you refuse to understand my point ”
I understand with it, I just don’t agree with it.
“I understand it” rather.
335- I appreciate your efforts to reword and reconvey, David. It’s true that it’s easier to change topics and try to pick apart analogies than to address the core criticism of the original isolationist statement, and I unfortunately opened the door to that unfortunate meandering exercise in futility.
338- OK, so then you are just acting like you don’t in order to create straw man arguments. Dirty pool, brother…
For those underestimating the power of Russia (still the largest country in the World, even without the rest of the former Soviet Union), I recall that similar things have been said throughout history…
e.g.
“We have only to kick in the door and the whole rotten structure will come crashing down…” - Adolf Hitler, 1941
340 - Has your Olympics coverage improved? NBC seem to have annoyed a lot of people with it.
Is the focus of it really as it appears on Drudge with any vague rumour of cheating being the main news (or is that just Drudge being Drudge?) The Aussies ridicule such ‘whinging’, when we do it we are just a bunch of ‘whinging Poms’ (cutting but true).
335 David, in the end your standard of living and, more importantly, mine depends on energy security, without gas & oil we starve, in the cold. Ensuring that security is one of any nations priorities and threats to that will and should be met forcefully. Going to war for oil isn’t noble but its reality.
I’d love to see Mugabe overthrown and it can’t come too soon for the suffering populace; just hope Tsvangarai holds out against pressure from South Africa. But it would be a victory if the MDC do succeed in their non-violent approach rather than through bloody conflict with or without foreign help. I’ll be in Zimbabwe in four weeks time (counting wildlife in a game park).
341 - I thought that I would disagree with you was a given.
344 - (counting wildlife in a game park).
Isn’t that a nightmare? They all look the same and won’t stop moving around.
345- Wow, I need to take some antacids and go to bed! The Olympics coverage is mostly about the actual events, but the media like to sensationalize peripheral aspects. I feel more sorry for your Commonwealth compatriots in Canada, who are still looking for their first medal. Australia is coming through like a superpower, though.
A couple of articles in the Guardian Unlimited. Georgia is important. But what it tells us about global politics is far more so
The bear’s Achilles heel
347.Australia always does, and considering its population it punches well above its weight.
342 - I wouldn’t suggest we can invade without mittens but relatively Russia is much less powerful than it was 30/50 years ago.
I hear som of our sports reporters have a bet with our Aussie colleagues in Rupert’s empire that we will finish above them in the medal table. Their relative lack of success in the pool(compared to previous Games) suggests that we probably will if this weekend goes to form.
To answer the thread topic: No, the Prime Minister should be doing this.
In his absence, we’ll have to rely upon the opposition leader doing it instead though.
Instead of this horrible Georgia-Russia crisis . . .
The US media is eating John Edwards alive. And from all directions.
Frontpage story in Friday New York Times detailed the sleazy manipulations of sleazy lawyer for positively oleogenious JE.
But the real damage to JE is much more downmarket. After Lincoln was shot, someone said “now he belongs to the ages.” When the world found out that John Edwards had indeed shot himself in the pecker, it quickly became clear that “now he belongs to the tabloids.”
Note that in US “tabloids” means NY Post and a very few similar in biggest cities; also national supermarket rags like National Enquirer; but even more People magazine and assorted knockoffs; last but certainly not least Entertainment Tonight and other syndicated tabloid TV.
BTW I received a robocall today from Gov. Christine Gregoire urging me to mail in by ballot for next Tuesday’s Washington State Primary.
Reason? I’m an absentee voter who has yet to mail back my ballot. Plus I am not alone; returns for the primary are very slow across the state. Which worries politicos because of possibility their supporters will fail to vote.
So I got a phone call, because I’m also an IDed Democrat, live in Seattle, am a regular voter but have yet to vote in the primary.
Which I will.
Should note that challenger Dino Rossi and his Republican support base are also concerned about low turnout. Because they fear that the demongraphics of a low turnout situation (dominance of older voters) could help Democrats more than GOP.
Take any price above evens on Rebecca Adlington to win Sports Personality
re 355. It depends on how many golds Mark Cavendish gets
354. I’m not sure why they care. Washington’s system is such that it’s guaranteed one Democrat and one Republican will advance in every race that has shot at being competitive anyway. Washington’s new jungle primary is an even bigger joke than Louisiana’s was.
356 - I think you need to brush up on your knowledge of track cycling Mike…