In the Sunday Papers
July 6th, 2008
Two columnists in the Independent consider the long-running Brown saga, with John Rentoul declaring that Labour awaits “The Issue” to topple Gordon, while Alan Watkins in the above piece argues that “tomorrow never comes” for Labour MPs:
“His colleagues, if they do it at all – if they get rid of the Prime Minister – will do it tomorrow. But tomorrow never comes. A hurdle is erected for Mr Brown to jump, or, at least, to scramble over somehow. He either falls down or, more ingeniously, manages to avoid the obstacle… Mr Brown is still in his place.”
Glasgow East features strongly elsewhere, with Andrew Rawnsley wondering whether a “Glasgow kiss” could prove fatal for Brown, while Matthew d’Ancona says that of the two by-elections, Glasgow is very much the main event. The Mail on Sunday says that no fewer than four potential candidates have turned down Brown’s personal pleas to stand in the by-election.
The other main political story is the fallout from the Ray Lewis resignation. The Sunday Times reports on the clash between the Conservatives and the church, with Nick Boles accusing church leaders of negligence. The Mail has further coverage, with allegations that Lewis took “some of the proceeds of a charity raffle and emptied a fund set up to help the poor in Nigeria”.
Meanwhile an editorial in the Sunday Times talks of Boris’ “magnificent own goal”:
“Boris’s time in office was always going to be tumultous but few expected it to be this rocky so soon.”
Finally, it’s a big afternoon for sport, so if you are planning to bet on either Federer v Nadal or the British Grand Prix, don’t forget to go via the site betting links and help keep PB going.
Double Carpet
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Given that bad times look on the cards, won’t any potential challengers want Gordon to take the hit?
1, I suppose it also depends on potential challengers’ risks of losing their own seats. No good Brown taking the hit if you lose your seat for the next term.
What’s most staggering is that it took them an age to find somebody who wanted to be a candidate in a seat where Labour got 60% of the vote last time.
I find it hard to see how the Ray Lewis problems reflect on Johnson. At the time he was appointed there was no indication that these problems were going to surface and many of those papers now saying this reflects badly on Johnson were actually lauding him for having appointed Lewis. Do they feel the affair reflects badly on them as well?
Since a successful two week campaign in Glasgow East effectively means a meal ticket for life, the apparent difficulty Labour are experiencing in finding anyone to stand, doesn’t say much about their prospects of holding this seat.
I’m on bestbetting.com all the time. I normally go from my ‘favourites’ list, but I’d be delighted to go via PB.com. But I can’t find an simple link down the righthand side of this page.
Maybe you could make it easy for me to get it right?
Betting suggests a coming Brown replacement will halve chances of Tory landslide. Not sure about that. A New Labour retread like Miliband will be unlikely to change a thing, just irritate people.
David,
I normally go via the top betting link (GE seats) and re-navigate from there - will pass on your comments to Mike.
I think last month’s pay day saw even MPs and journalists cotton on that it really is the economy rather than Gordon Brown’s mannerisms depressing Labour support, so a new Prime Minister would not help.
6 I think it likely that those voters who are now “anyone but Brown” will initially be much more positive about Labour - but will be even more bitter and veangeful against Labour if nothing improves - and improves quickly. And that means people feeling less insecure about their personal circumstances. The financial pundits are generally reckoning we are in for two years of hurt, so anyone replacing Brown would be advised to call an almost immediate election, on the back of whatever bounce they can get from ridding the country of Brown. But I still can’t see it peventing a Tory majority.
If the subject wasn’t so serious, it would be amusing to note the number of papers headlining knife crime alongside the Ray Lewis story. In practice, there may be little alternative to politicians working with Lewis, whatever he did 10-15 years ago, as he appears to have a successful track record with ‘dead-end’ youngsters. In the current climate, those who censor Lewis (and Johnson) (e.g. Livingstone, Blears) run the risk of appearing to treat knife crime/gang culture with a lack of seriousness.
I hope Johnson’s inquiry into Lewis’ record goes ahead. The story is still murky, and we need a mature account of the man’s crimes (if any), their significance (if any) in terms of being a Deputy Mayor, and more generally how politicians should seek to enhance his initiatives.
9
I think its going to be worse than 2 yrs, a… or maybe even longer than that. I cant see how two yrs will be enough to pull back from the appalling deficits that are to come on the PSBR and the trade gap. We may get over rock bottom in two yrs, if we are lucky and if Labour cut public spending…….
10 Good post. If national Govt. were doing their job and getting on top of the problem as they should be, then Boris wouldn’t need Lewis and his local initiatives. He’s only clearing up their mess, after all.
It’s fascinating seeing the extraordinary political somersaults by some Tory posters over the resignation of Boris Johnson’s Deputy. Keep it up lads, not too late for the Olympics.
THe Brownites v the Blairites…
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1032362/Dont-diss-let-Cameron-Blair-tells-Brown.html
13 Don’t get us started on the Olympics….!
1 - never understood the argument about Gordon “taking the hit”. It seems to make a highly dubious assumption that Labour would dump any replacement who lost the election, and also seems to ignore that if the “hit” is as Big as predicted, it won’t be a “future PM” job on offer anyway.
9 Often is seems in times of crisis there is an atavistic desire for a sacrifice and IMHO the resignation of Gordon Brown would serve this. There would be an improvement in Labour ratings with a new leader but doubt this would survive through the electioneering - the Government is disjointed and directionless and its hard to see Miliband able to pull the PLP behind him, nor any other leader. I think the defeat would still be big, just not disastrous. Though losing a third of MPs will still feel like a massacre its better than losing half.
There are in the new generation - Purnell, Miliband, Burnham etc - people who understand what Labour needs to do but its hard to see them being able to rebuild while in office and while the 80’s/90’s generation are still so prominent.
15.
14. What was interesting in this post was a reference to a Jack Straw leadership team. This is in the same week in which we’ve seen a big cut in Straw’s price for next Labour leader to joint favourite with William Hills:
‘One MP claimed that Mr Straw’s ambitions were not restricted to playing the elder statesman who tells Mr Brown to go. His allies are said to have discussed a leadership campaign.’
At the Henley by election Labour had a candidate without a campaign and now at Glasgow East Labour have a campaign without a candidate.
Then there is H&H where Labour have no campaign and no candidate.
I know Brown does not like elections but this is getting ridiculous.
It is hard to see the Ray Lewis ’scandal’ resonating with voters. It is more important than the ‘epidemic’ of knife crime? No. Does it irk voters more than MPs upholding their financial status quo? Doubtful.
It’s unfortunate but simply not that important.
I think the public’s perception of our Chancellor would soar if only he had a mind of his own and thought more like Sarkozy.
From Bloomberg
France’s Sarkozy Questions If ECB Rate Increase `Reasonable’
By Simon Kennedy
July 5 (Bloomberg) — French President Nicolas Sarkozy recommenced his criticism of the European Central Bank today, asking it was “reasonable” for it to have raised the region’s key interest rate this past week.
The ECB lifted its benchmark rate to 4.25 percent, its highest in seven years, on July 3 after inflation accelerated to a 16 year high in the 15 nations that use the euro.
Sarkozy, who has repeatedly attacked the Frankfurt-based bank for focusing too much on inflation and not enough on growth, asked delegates at a Paris meeting of his Union for a Popular Movement party “if it was reasonable to raise rates, while the Americans have rates at 2 percent.”
‘Curran rides to the rescue of battered Brown’
“Curran’s decision to stand may also have been influenced by the fact that her Holyrood seat is to be merged with a neighbouring constituency, potentially depriving her or fellow MSP Frank McAveety of a seat.
Scotland on Sunday can also reveal that internal polling research by Labour shows that the party’s majority in the seat has fallen from 13,500 in 2005 to as little as 5,500.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/Curran-rides-to-the-rescue.4260619.jp
‘Labour’s poisoned chalice: fourth choice Curran to fight by-election’
The article also mentions 2 new names that are entering the frame for the SLAB leadership election: Hamilton South MSP Tom McCabe and Eastwood MSP Ken MacIntosh.
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2381327.0.0.php
Sunday Herald/TNS System Three
Scottish independence 3-monthly tracker poll
Fieldwork: 25 June - 1 July 2008
“The Scottish Government should negotiate a settlement with the Government of the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent state.”
Agree 39% (-2%)
Disagree 41% (+1%)
NR/DK 21%
“TNS managing director Chris Eyon said of the findings: “While this is clearly a positive situation for the SNP compared to August, when support languished 15% behind opposition, it is interesting to note that the actual level of support is now only 4% higher than the opening reading. The difference is in the level actively opposed, which has declined by 9%, although the majority of these are now undecided rather than supportive of independence.”"
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2381319.0.support_for_independence_slips_slightly.php
3: The main issue about Boris is the suggestion that he had been informed about the allegations but either didn’t take them in or didn’t bother to look into them. That’s damaging because it chimes with existing doubts - “amusing but not serious”. The defence that the letter to Boris raised it in the middle of a long letter reinforces the impression that Boris doesn’t really bother with details, like reading letters all the way through. The interview where he agreed to be asked about a document he’d not read was another example. Too much charm is dangerous in exposed positions - people can get used to thinking they can schmooze their way through anything.
Anyway, weren’t we told before the election that even if this were true it wouldn’t matter because Tory Central Office were ensuring that Boris had a top-quality team, people like Mr Lewis, who would do all the detail for him?
‘It’s catch-22 for the Nationalists’, by James Mitchell, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde
“Meanwhile, Labour’s abysmal performance may be also stalling the onward march of independence. Voters may be content to see Alex Salmond govern Scotland but have doubts about whether the country is fit for independence when they view the political system as a whole. Choosing a constitutional preference involves more than choosing a governing party.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2381360.0.its_catch22_for_the_nationalists.php
How ironic! Maybe Broon’s gross incompetence is all part of his masterplan to save the Union?
23. I think there’s confusion among a lot of voters on what “independence” means. I suspect many of the agrees thinks it means something akin to “freedom for Scotland” without ending the United Kingdom.
21 - Something like “Brown criticises ‘independent’ Bank that he created?”
20. It’s important because it reinforces a sense that Boris is accident prone and incompetent. It was only a few weeks ago that he had to sack one of his senior advisors for saying that if black Londoners didn’t like Boris they should leave the country. I think it’s inevitable that there will be some mistakes in any new administration but how the media pieces it together is [sadly] the important bit.
McCain confuses his African countries:
http://thepage.time.com/pool-report-of-mccains-straight-talk-express-chat/
‘Rumbles: Give Scotland full control of economy’
“In an interview with the Sunday Herald, Rumbles signalled he favoured putting the concept of expanding Holyrood’s powers to the people: “I’ll give you a clue. The name of our party: liberal and democratic.
“I very much believe in the benefits of the UK: defence, foreign affairs, international relations. But we need to be in charge of our own economic affairs, and that means full fiscal autonomy.”
He backed the parliament controlling the social security system, as well as receiving a portion of North Sea oil revenues: “Just as Shetland has had a chance to benefit directly from oil revenues, so should Scotland.”
An SNP spokesman said: “We welcome Mike Rumbles’s comments. The first thing he did after declaring his leadership ambitions was open up the question of an independence referendum, and call for it to be decided by the LibDem members. We also very much welcome his comments on significantly increasing the Parliament’s powers.”"
http://tinyurl.com/5rxmln
‘Scots MEP cleared after investigation’
http://www.sundayherald.com/news/heraldnews/display.var.2381361.0.scots_mep_cleared_after_investigation.php
Andrew Rawnsley “One minister tells me that the local party has fewer than 200 members. I hear from another Labour MP involved with the byelection campaign that the Glasgow East party has no canvassing records at all.”
So after they select on Monday they will have 2 weeks and 1 day to identify the Labour voters and get them out to vote.
They also have no staff as the MP seems to have only hired family for the constituency work. How could a constituency with so much poverty have its case work handled from the MPs front room?
Rotten to the core, Labour deserve to lose.
24, Boris’ main issue is a suggestion?
Well, who made the suggestion and is it true?
If the answers are Ed Balls and no I’d suggest that the rest of your post is worth as much as a tax commitment in the last Budget.
Undoubtedly it’s not good news for Boris, but given the present political and economic climate (ie economic downturn, knife killings and 33 Labour ministers tipping the balance in favour of retaining the infamous list) I do not believe the average man down the pub will be ignoring soaring fuel and food prices, government self-interest and job cuts to focus on the deputy mayor of London.
Two political careers on the line, Brown-n-Boris, will either last much longer. For Brown it could be, ‘I don’t belong tae Glasgie’
I Have my doubts whether Boris will last another three years and ten months of this, ‘I have decided this politics thingy isn’t for me, I’m returning to my first love, journalism’
‘When even a safe seat can be no guarantee’
Sunday Herald Editorial
“A rock-solid Labour seat would normally have them queueing up: time-served union officials, party apparachiks, councillors - the list should have been huge. Instead, as we reveal in the newspaper today, the MSP Margaret Curran is at best fourth choice after others shunned the opportunity, causing a panic among Labour officials that Glasgow East was as unwanted as the last pullover in a jumble sale.
Once again opponents have been shown they don’t need to do too much - Labour are their own worst enemy. You couldn’t, as they say, make it up.”
http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opinion/display.var.2381282.0.when_even_a_safe_seat_can_be_no_guarantee.php
32 Even more damning when asked as “How could a Glasgow constituency with so much poverty have its case work handled from the MPs front room - in Aberdeen?
32. Yes I read that about running the surgery from the MP’s house and it’s very worrying. I know several older MPs who have done that kind of thing. It’s really not on. I think I heard that years ago Geoffrey Robinson used to run surgeries from his Jaguar.
34, hahaha. I suspect you are attempting to become a lefty version of Ave It.
Boris: lost two senior chaps inside a year.
Brown: reneged on referendum promise
Northern Rock
25m records lost
endless tax u-turns, most notably 10p
playing politics with British troops
Also, Boris has actually won an election.
The delight for Labour is that even a majority of one will be seen as a triumph against adversity.
“Eleven Labour Glasgow City Councillors, including Councillor George Ryan, who last night suddenly pulled out of the contest to represent Labour in the crucial Glasgow East by-election, were reported to the Standards on 18 June 2008 in connection with a controversial land deal in the city centre.”
http://www.allmediascotland.com/media_releases/2952/eleven_glasgow_labour_councillors_under_investigation
38
Give Boris time, he’s only on the nursery slopes!
“A Labour MP used almost £500,000 of taxpayers’ money over six years to help run an office from his home which was staffed by his wife.
David Marshall, 67, who has quit to spark the Glasgow East by-election on July 24, used the expenses to pay for a constituency office and staff.”
http://www.mailonsunday.co.uk/news/article-1032385/Labour-MP-spent-500-000-taxpayers-money-running-office-home-staffed-wife.html
Stuart, all very significant posts, thanks for the updates
Re comments above about using the site’s betting links for all you needs rather than just politics - please go here
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Many thanks
41, oh come on. By this time Brown had already caused the first run on a British bank. To compete with Brown Boris would have had to accidentally ordered the stock exchange to be blown up and then e-mailed the personal details of everyone in the capital to the Albanian mafia.
43. Thanks test!
Nice to know I can be of service. I remain profoundly disappointed that Double Carpet does not even bother to give the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish papers even a cursory glance. Especially when we are in the middle of an important by election in Scotland. Surely the big-selling Glasgow-based Sunday Herald and Sunday Mail should be punters’ first port-of-call?
Is there any connection between Henley, Glasgow East and the Deputy Mayor of London? In my opinion yes and it is character assination. An attempted one in Henley, a feared one in Glasgow East and a real one in London.
I do not know whether Ray Lewis has done anything wrong or not, but there is an independent inquiry being set up. We have a long tradition of people being innocent until proven quilty. This is now even more under threat by the way we have set up systems and procedures whereby ticking boxes, both literally and figuratively, has become even more important that actual right or wrong. If someone has done wrong then they should suffer the consequences. But remember the old biblical adage: “Let he who is without sin cast the first stone”
So the consequence will be that we will get even more “pygmies” putting themselves forward for public office and as a result a further deterioration in the quality the output of government.
38: You forgot Brown has ruined the economy!
This Boris story is pretty small beer. I’m not from London so I had no idea he’d even appointed this guy as his deputy, doesn’t seem to be a conservative politican even (??). Instead he’s someone with a track record of working with disaffected youth, with success. On paper a great appointment, courageous and totally the right sort of thing to do. Backfired a bit with some nebulous skeleton in his closet, but it looks like the usual storm in a tea cup, shame.
Who would have thought even 5 years ago that the tories would be employing a black inner City youth worker in a position of seniority? Pretty clear evidence of huge change in the tories, Cameron really has made them electable no matter how much Labour spins this story. The same old petty points scoring seems to be more important to them than the gang culture and violence which so badly needs addressing. Lame.
46 Don’t just blame him, Stuart - I made the mistake myself from force of habit, being English. The news from the Scotsman about the internal poll reducing the majority to 5500 is massive. As soon as you posted, I was kicking myself for not having the common sense to be checking the Scottish papers - shan’t make that mistake again.
Meanwhile….as the great Jack W would say, George Osborne plays a total blinder on the Andrew Marr show with a policy I think could be as strong for us as IHT - Tories to tax fuel in a whole different way with a “fuel duty stabiliser” - ie, when the price of oil goes up fuel will be taxed less but when it drops fuel will be taxed more.
This would keep the fuel price steadier, avoid shocks to the economy and under the Tories fuel would cost 5p less today while we all feel the pinch.
I think it’s just outstanding. Osborne is a superstar.
‘Prime Minister backs Iain Gray to lead Labour in Scotland’
“IAIN GRAY has emerged as the front-runner to become Scottish Labour leader after being backed by Gordon Brown.
Gray has overtaken Andy Kerr in the race to replace Wendy Alexander after doubts whether his rival will stand.
Kerr was the bookies’ favourite but is considering withdrawing for his family’s sake.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/07/06/prime-minister-backs-iain-gray-to-lead-labour-in-scotland-78057-20634053/
“Ryan was expected to be the party’s candidate to replace David Marshall but it is understood he quit after allegations of housing benefit fraud dating back a decade resurfaced.”
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/07/06/margaret-curran-drafted-in-to-stand-for-labour-in-glasgow-east-by-election-78057-20633573/
“On a visit to the area, the First Minister said: “They don’t have a leader in Scotland, they don’t have a candidate in Glasgow East, and they have a Prime Minister who refuses to come to the constituency.
“Labour have forfeited any right to represent the people of Glasgow East.”
He added: “Curran will go into the election as the 5th, 6th or 7th choice knowing her party is in chaos.
“It is looking good for an SNP win in the third safest Labour seat in Scotland.”"
http://www.sundaymail.co.uk/news/scottish-news/2008/07/06/alex-salmond-mocks-labour-over-lost-weekend-78057-20633570/
A poll showing a majority of 5500 for Labour is GOOD news for them, rather than bad news, isn’t it? Pretty comfortable for a by-election.
45
In about two years time, that’ll look like small fry.
Before Boris became Mayor, I posted, ‘Pity the chairman of the Conservative Party, every Saturday evening he/she will be sitting at home waiting for the phone to ring. As soon as the first editions of the Sunday’s are in, brrrrr, brrrr, it’ll be the duty press officer at Conservative Party HQ, What’s he done now, Oh gawd! did you say goat?’
Morris Dancer at 33: Who made the suggestion? The Church of England. See
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/jul/06/boris.london1
But I do agree with you that people don’t care very much about these things (I don’t think they cared much about Lee Jasper either). If Boris makes a mistake that affects people - council tax goes up because he forgot to check the details of a deal, for instance - then it will reinforce the pattern and cause damage. On its own, people will just think “bloody politicians, sigh” and move on.
What would in fact happen if coldstone is right and Boris chucks it in at some point? A new election, or the Assembly picks someone, or what?
11. Recovery of the economy is also affected by ‘confidence’, whatever the dire state of the stats.
With Brown in office there is none. A Cameron regime with a big majority could be enough to kick markets back into life from their current coma.
The end of the credit crunch is way off but in the US home-buyers are returning and numbers of houses selling is rising even as prices fall. The light at the end of the tunnel is at least visible. Once the US bounces back up - maybe with new President and new confidence, the UK would find it easier to lift in its wake.
Right now every journo is writing the doom and gloom story. The fashion can change so quickly that you might miss the turning point.
51 Alex down from 13,500 to 5500 - before the SNP even really attacks there? And don’t forget IDS and Cameron are going tomorrow. IDS has respect up there. I bet we take some Labour votes too.
23. Bad news for you, Stuart, I fear.
That is the most positively-spun question you could ever hope to put to the Scottish people, as it kinda implies a continuing relationship with the UK in a nice cosy “negotiations towards a settlement” while also aspiring to independence.
I think if you simply and more honestly asked: “Do you want to separate Scotland from the rest of the UK” you’d get maybe 30% agreeing and 50-60% disagreeing.
But I could be wrong…
Incidentally I am in the suburbs of Bilbao right now. Doing some research for the next Tom Knox - a week in the Basque Country. It’s interesting to see how Basque independence is doing, and to contrast it with the Scottish situation.
For instance, I think the Basques have another referendum this year - asking for more autonomy but not quite-the-full-divorce.
Given that the Basques already have their own language, parliament, police force, culture, cuisine and government (with full tax raising powers), plus a violent history of antagonism towards Castile, and a strong tradition of autonomy, and a stark racial divide with other Spaniards, its remarkable that they aren’t already independent.
Yet they aren’t. The lesson appears to be that it is surprisingly hard for regions/states to completely secede from stable democracies. cf Quebec.
49
Test/ are you quite sure this is a brilliant idea? What incentive do the oil companies have to keep prices low if they know the Govt will just reduce the tax on fuel. I’d need to see the detail……..
53 - Well coldstone isn’t right, so not really worth bothering with
I would like to recommend this man to be Foreign Secretary in Cameron’s government.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1032360/Tory-MP-accused-letter-rant-German-Euro-team.html
Have you noticed, that it’s the dear ‘ol Mail and Mail on Sunday, that seem to run the more anti-Tory stories: how things have changed.
Unlike Brown and Livingstone, Boris doesn’t duck the tough decisions. He got rid of drinking on London Transport. It was about bloody time, but Red Ken wouldn’t have dared.
Boris pushes out unsuitable staff. If Labour had done that, Brown would not be Prime Minister now, but Blair ran everything on a ‘do nothing’ basis. Look where it has got us. I prefer the Boris approach.
57 - Well Oil companies don’t control the price, do they?
The “New York Times” on McCain struggling with the practicalities of the media age :
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/07/06/us/politics/06mccain.html?hp
‘The strange tale of Labour and the missing candidate’
“At the party’s John Smith House HQ, campaign manager and Scotland Office minister David Cairns was tearing his hair out.
Despite the party’s plummeting fortunes since then, the first signs were looking good, suggesting the vote was holding steady. Cairns was preparing to head to the constituency on Saturday for the official launch – alongside Ryan.
And then the idea of Margaret Curran emerged – from the Glasgow party, not No 10, it is understood. The selection of the MSP for Glasgow Baillieston had an added attraction. Until yesterday, she was facing being bumped out of Holyrood due to boundary changes.
Labour insiders were last night suggesting that they may well have turned accidently upon the right candidate. Curran is popular among Labour voters in the East End and Labour remains confident it can win the seat on July 24.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/latestnews/The-strange-tale-of-Labour.4260630.jp
Oh and looks like the inquiry has been dropped:-
On Friday the mayor said Mr Lewis would be reinstated if he was cleared by an inquiry into the allegations led by former chief prisons inspector Martin Narey. But last night City Hall sources said the inquiry would be dropped. A source said: ‘He wants to clear his name and we would like that to happen, but now he has resigned it is not appropriate to spend taxpayers’ money on an inquiry.’”
57 exactly Opec controls the price and it is set for the global economy. CCHQ has this (via conhome)
“If a Fair Fuel Stabiliser had been introduced at the 2008 Budget:
> Fuel would be 5p per litre cheaper.
> This would save up to £3.50 on each tank of fuel for a Ford Mondeo, or £2.60 for a Vauxhall Astra.
> If, instead of rising, oil prices had fallen below the $84 forecast in the Budget, then fuel duty would have risen.
> In either case forecast government revenues would have been unchanged.”
Nick Palmer makes an excellent point when he says that charm is not enough—it is also necessary to flog through the detail as well.
Charm is not a sufficient chacteristic for a leader, and labour MPs clearly also believe that it is not even a necessary condition (or they wouldn’t have chosen GB). But it is certainly a useful attribute.
TB was always good at charm, and very weak on detail. But to start with at least, he arranged to surround himself with enough able people to handle the detail for him. GB, like MT before him, handles too much detail himself. This has the (unintended?) effect of making it harder to surround himself with able people.
How good will Boris be a getting the right people around him? A poor start. But there is no indication that he wants to ‘micromanage’.
Anybody want to open up a book on how long before Labour desperately try to claim this policy as their own?
I’m taken aback by its simplicity and brilliance - showing the Tories are on your side while Labour abolishes tax relief for the poorest
61
No they dont, but the point I was trying to make was that the incentive to keep prices low isnt exactly going to be a top priority is it??. As I said, one would need to see the detail….
57 Competition should - and as Mr Palmer pointed out there will not be much of an impact on tax revenues as people would spend their cash elsewhere on goods or services attracting VAT.
Do agree its not as simple as it sounds - the government will have to have a guide price, so they’d plan on petrol at £1.1 a gallon, what happens when oil drops to $60 and there’s no fall in price at the pumps. Need to be a tapering mechanism so if oil doubles in price the pump cost goes up to an extent, if it halves it drops, but by less than it would have in both cases.
Voxpop in Glasgow East:
“”LABOUR?” growled pensioner Davie Robb outside the Centaur Bar in Easterhouse. “That lot are so hopeless that Chipperfield’s wouldnae take them on as clowns.” He and his cronies wheezed with laughter as they pointed to a red and yellow poster that is hanging precariously from a lamppost.
A child’s toy blackboard with “Get your free sticker to show your support” etched amateurishly on it gave no indication that this crucial poll could well decide whether Brown stays in Downing Street.
Three middle-aged woman, smoking and huddled together in the rain outside the Consul Suncenter, shook their heads when asked if they would vote. “What difference would it make, son?” said one. “We cannae go outside at night because of all the kids hanging around the streets. “I’ve had my windaes put in twice already, so don’t even think about putting my name in the paper.”
Five men outside Griers Loungebar spoke in unison when asked if they’ll vote.
“No!”
“They are all bloody conmen on the make,” barked one.
Back at Labour campaign HQ, a poster boasted ‘Labour Party Mugs. Only £5 each!!!’. Enough said.”
http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/politics/Look-who39s-not-talking-in.4260525.jp
64. So the man remains quilty because we are not prepared to investigate whether he is innocent or not. Seems this then brings the “42 day” issue into equation. A further downward turn of the screw as far as the integrity of the country’s politics is concerned.
59. coldstone: Have you noticed, that it’s the dear ‘ol Mail and Mail on Sunday, that seem to run the more anti-Tory stories: how things have changed.
Dacre wants a peerage.
67
Are those the same Tories who introduced: the fuel escalator, the gas levy, (domestic gas prices were raised by 9% above the rate of inflation for four years) who attempted to put vat at 17.5% on domestic fuel?
Of course not these are, Cameron’s Tories not to be confused with another political party trading under a similar name.
67 Perhaps Labour are already considering it - Labour are already convinced of the existence of Mr Osborne’s Mole in the Treasury, maybe there is one….
Osborne has to make this a Tory policy, think through the answers to questions like that posed by MTF, and then if it appears in the Autumn PBR it will be an obvious theft, derailing the Great Autumn Re-Launch.
65 re my 68 Thanks. Oil companies always make out that they make little out of the retail business, but never point out that the serious money is made from the refining of crude oil.
Economic conditions change then so do the policies, Coldstone - and if your view is Cameron’s Tories are a totally different beast, that is a problem for us how? It helps the whole Tories have changed thing.
39. A majority of one for Labour would be an outstanding achievement given where things are now.
On the main lead, Watkins seems to have it right to me. Brown is highly likely to remain PM through to 2010, Glasgow East notwithstanding. I know there’s talk about how he ‘couldn’t survive’ a defeat there, but the fact is that he can; all it takes is for him to do nothing. If something does force Brown out before the general election, it’s unlikely to be a by-election defeat but something much closer to home - either literally, in the case of his wife advising him to give it up, though I think that very unlikely unless the job is genuinely and seriously affecting his health, or politically, by way of a senior cabinet minister resigning and launching an attack on Brown a la Howe or Lamont.
Beyond something like that, why bother? True, Brown is not proving a very effective leader of the Labour Party or the government, but would anyone else do better?
Will they solve the problems in the economy in time for the next general election? No, because many of the problems are external to the UK, those which aren’t will take longer than two years to fix, and part of the solution involves sorting out the structural deficit in the government’s accounts, which will cause political pain.
Would a new leader resolve divisions, or open them up? There is one status quo; there are many alternatives. Brown might well sulk mightily after being kicked out, but what about the other candidates who failed to get the job? And there are serious policy questions to answer? Hold firm to the New Labour line which has been successful three times - but against a different sort of Tory Party - or stage a managed retreat to core vote territory?
Will a new leader start getting funding in? If so, where from, and how? What promises will have to be made during a leadership election in which the unions still have a third of the vote? Indeed, at what point can a two-month leadership contest be held? During this Summer perhaps, but then there’s not really a useful gap until next Summer, after the Euros. For that matter, who is going to pay for a leadership election and the various campaigns?
There are of course massive risks in keeping Brown, but there are also massive ones associated with trying to remove him - and they are much more immediate. Best to put off the decision.
50. Thank you SD. I had missed that. GB interfering with the Labour leadership in Holyrood has been repeatedly flagged as a big no-no. For him to do it during a by-election campaign is another whole page of the suicide note. You are right about the degree of media filtering that will be imposed on the folk of Glasgow East, and its importance for prediction/betting.
66. poor people around Boris? Most of them put there by Livingstone.
There are 130 odd press agents appointed by Livingstone still in situ. Boris will have to push a few more out yet before he’s free of the Livingstone corruption system.
Is there no end to Gordon’s incompetence, He couldnt even manage to charter a BA plane to fly to the G8..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/nickrobinson/
65. OPEC do not control the oil price, though they’d like people to think they do. It’s not long ago that they dropped their $22-$28 target range for crude, by which point it was already way above that ceiling, and has continued to increase since.
OPEC are able to influence the price somewhat, one way or the other, but have rarely been particularly effective in controlling supply (the early ’70s is the big exception, but should be viewed as an exception), and have almost no control over demand.
#24
Did you read the Secret Dossier of Blair and Campbell? Have your read chapter and verse of the EU Constitutional Treaty. Do you even bother to personally read your constituents mail? I’d doubt it somehow. Stones and glasshouse, stones and glasshouses.
#30
“I very much believe in the benefits of the UK: defence….”
Geesh, here we go again! Scotland has a large land-mass, an even larger EEZ. and a wee-little population (with a miniscule tax-pool), but expects that their [belief in benefits should be funded by the English. Sorry, it ain't gonna' 'appen!
Ray Lewis:
He hid something, but now it is the open. Is it as bad as the abuses of Mandelsohn, Prescott, Oaten, or Hughes. [Don't start me on the current cabinet, or their election-campaigns.] If found not to have done anything criminal - and that is the benchmark - I would like to see Mr Lewis put back in his role.
By the way, I might have missed this during Stuart’s many posts, but won’t it go down badly with Scots if a Labour MSP is seeking ‘promotion’ to the Westminster parliament? I’d have thought that the SNP would want to make a lot of play about Labour not treating it seriously and using it as a ‘wee pretendy parliament’ (thankyou, Billy Connolly), to train future Westminster MPs?
Lib Dems nowhere in sight in any of the current contests.
Maybe the following quote from Boris Johnson could be suitably applied to the Lib Dems as they affect the future of British politics.
The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition.
76
‘Put not your trust in Princes’
83. David - “… won’t it go down badly with Scots if a Labour MSP is seeking ‘promotion’ to the Westminster parliament?”
Honest answer: don’t know. We will have to wait and see how the SNP choose to play this Curran development.
All I can say is that she is a more plausible candidate than Ryan or any of the ones Gordon Brown wanted (Purcell, Quinn, McTernan or McAveety)! I tend to agree with the Labour spin that they may even accidentally have ended up with the best candidate to hold on. Not being ‘Brown’s candidate’ is surely in itself a big plus.
77. The ‘decision’ is with the unions that are now bankrolling the party. GB meets them the day after the Glasgow East result.
83. SLAB gave Alex Salmond a lot of stick for being both an MP and an MSP. The SNP can just play that back.
13
No Henry, as a non Tory myself, what is interesting to see is the sad old Labour hacks desperately trying to portray this as inevoitable sleeze on the part of Johnson even though any sane person would realise that everyone - including the papers and Labour party - were caught out by this.
As has alerady been said, if Livingstone and Labour had done anything like a decent job then Lewis would not even be necessary. The fact that they have so let law and order and youth initiatives slip is an indictment of their whole time in office.
24
Desperate stuff from Nick ‘Everyone is a potential criminal’ Palmer there.
‘The Law of Unintended Consequences’, by Mark McDonald, Deputy Leader of the SNP Group on Aberdeen City Council
“Labour will, in all probability, be standing Margaret Curran as their candidate.
The SSP have announced Frances Curran as their candidate.
The ballot paper will therefore be laid out with FRANCES Curran first alphabetically and MARGARET Curran below her.
Could make things interesting when the votes are being cast, how many people might look down the ballot and see the name Curran and instinctively put the cross in the box?”
http://granitecapitalcity.blogspot.com/2008/07/law-of-unintended-consequences.html
This may be a useful blog to keep an eye on if you are interested in Glasgow East:
http://notworkingfortheclampdown.blogspot.com/
Many thanks to Stuart Dickson, for his useful posts.
I just put 122$ @ 2.02 on betfair on the SNP to win in Glascow…
‘Labour by-election ‘lost weekend”
“Former Scottish Labour spin doctor Lorraine Davidson said defeat would spell the end for the prime minister.
Ms Davidson, who now works as a political columnist and journalist, said: “I think it’s as simple as this: if Labour loses the Glasgow East by-election I think Gordon Brown is finished.
“Because it basically means that anyone in the PLP (Parliamentary Labour Party) with a majority of less than 13,500 is going to say, ‘if Gordon Brown’s the leader, we’re away as well’.
“You’re really talking the bulk of the PLP. It’s complete and utter meltdown.
“So if Glasgow East is lost I think you will see a challenge to Gordon Brown. I just do not see how he can survive it.”
However, Ms Davidson added that she did not feel there was the same desire to give the government a “good kicking” as she had detected at recent by-election defeats.”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/scotland/7491928.stm
Typical lazy BBC journalism, but fascinating nonetheless.
75
Although it is worth pointing out again that the givernment takes between 50% and 75% tax on every barrel of oil produced in the UK North Sea. That is before they then take another 65%+ on each litre of petrol sold.
Since we are on the subject of oil just a note to spare a thought for the families of the Piper Alpha men since today is the 20th anniversary of the disaster today.
92. Merci Philippe!
88
I agree, in fact Boris was so upset by Labour’s GE election victories that he had no choice but to shag Petronella Wyatt, so her abortion was Labour’s fault as well.
Oh! sorry about that, just call it, ‘An inverted pyramid of piffle’
94
apologies for the double ‘today’ I was going to say more but thought I would leave it at a simple note and then screwed up the grammar.
Right, I’m offski. I am going to have a lovely, cheery Sunday now.
See you all later…
Nick Palmer you are being so very disingenuous in trying to make Boris out as a failure for employing someone who your Mayor - one K Livingstone - said last week that he wished he had had on his team, and whose work with young tearaways is beyond dispute.
The same pattern emerges again from Labour, attack the man for mean political advantage and ignore the real issue, in this case the problems of young people and the knife crime which they nurture in London.
You may not have noticed that the recent young people’s march protesting knife crime deaths went to City Hall and spontaneously gave Boris a round of applause for his determination to do something about it. After years of fine talk at last there is someone who wants to act.
And Boris has shown a willingness to act swiftly. When it became clear that Lewis had not told the whole story to Boris then Boris sacked him. A stark contrast to Livingstone and Jasper.
The real fear of the left is not that Boris will fail, but that he will succeed in doing something about those issues that London residents feel are important. And in so doing he will show the vacuousness of the Labour administration.
Perhaps it is time for you to take a lead from Cameron and support Boris in measures you believe are right. Cameron did it on education and the nuclear deterrent, perhaps you should do it on knife crime and on those your ex-mayor believes are well placed to deal with it. A positive approach.
Or is your priority simply to tear Boris down in revenge for losing the election?
For Crewe & Nantwich, we had an excellent blog at Crewe tv to give local reports. Is there anything similar for Glasgow East?
96
I fail to see the point you are trying to make? Whqat bearing exactly does that have on the Lewis situation (outside of course your petty partisan party politics - I love alliteration)
59, ’tis a well-documented phenomenon. Apparently Dacre loves Gordon, in an entirely platonic fashion.
80, hahaha. Maybe he tried, but the pilots didn’t want to risk having a Jonah onboard.
Anyone else see McNumpty Vs Davis on Sky?
A pity they only had 15 minutes. They covered 42 days, CCTV and knife crime briefly, but left out ID cards which is a damn shame.
51 What poll.
15. Where did you see that.
I don’t see it as partisan, Lewis was Boris’s choice, (He could have been Ken’s, but wasn’t) if there are ramifications from that choice, then Boris has to bear them.
Leadership means responsiblity, Boris has to take that responsibility for his choice.
102
I did wonder whether BA were giving Gordon the cold shoulder??
How did Davis fare against McNumpty?
105, McNumpty stuck to the government line, and had no real reply to the public prosecutor chief not wanting it, nor did he have a proper response to the fact that most CCTV isn’t up to evidential standard.
More agreement over knife crime, with Davis making the point about bureaucracy not helping the police.
Davis victory, though it has to be said that McNumpty, whilst espousing the arguments of a fool, is less offensive than Balls and less blatantly idiotic than Blears.
If we want to be helping the poorest, we should be cutting income tax, not fuel duty. We should be getting ourselves off our addiction to oil.
104 - It is depressing enough to see a once amusing poster regress, so often to the level of metaphorically flicking the contents of a soiled nappy across the room and deriving pleasure from it, but for God sake please drop this sanctimonious ‘responsibility’ guff.
From the Telegraph:
The record-breaking total of 3,071 laws introduced during 2007 was more than double the annual total passed during Lady Thatcher’s heyday in the early 1980s.
Phil Orford, chief executive of the Forum for Private Business, said: “This appears to make a mockery of the Government’s supposed commitment to meeting an EU target to cut red tape by 25 per cent by 2010. It is steadily increasing under this Prime Minister.
109 And on reflection this cannot include laws passed in the Scottish parliament, or the Assemblies in Wales and Northern Ireland.
That suggests a truly enormous regulatory burden falling somewhere.
From Benedict Brogan
http://tinyurl.com/6opeys
Brown flies out with press to Japan on a plane with no beds.
Because he dithers about deciding his travel plans they have few choices on what planes are available to rent.
and I thought that a good PR practice was to always look after the media…… Brown clearly knows better.
Morning all, just been watching the David Davis v Tony McNulty debate on SKY. What a rude ignorant twat McNulty is. He persistently interrupted every time Davis tried to answer his points to the extend Davis asked him if he just wanted to make a speech.
Stuart you are doing a blinder today! I was pleased to see John Purves cleared because he is the sort of chap who wouldn’t seek to cheat anyone out of anything but probably like many older Parliamentarians, past his “sell by” date.
Glasgow East just gets better and better. Was reading yesterday’s Scotsman and it is looking gloomy for Labour, Margaret Curran notwithstanding.
Scotsman couldn’t find more than 1 traditional Labour voter who doesn’t intend to vote SNP. Seems to be the view Labour has had long enough.
The thought of Ken Mackintosh, Douglas Alexander and David Cairns wandering around Easterhouse telling people to vote for no-one since they dont have a candidate is wonderful. More telling perhaps that Labour are going to use telephone canvassers from England. That will go down well in Glasgow East. Each side of almost every conversation will have absolutely no idea what the other is saying even though both will nominally be speaking in English!
Margaret Curran will probably be the best of a bad bunch. However the most interesting information I have picked up so far is the huge % of households where canvassers are getting no reply when knocking doors. In a constituency with 25% unemployment, this indicates lots of voters are already away on holiday. Could we be looking at a 25% poll or less? Suddenly the 3,000+ votes Cllr Mason secured last year in the council seat within the constituency (which was the highest personal vote secured by any councillor I believe in the entire city) could prove to be 50% or more of the finishing number for the winning candidate.
Stuart keep them coming.
49 etc
Is Osborne the new William Huskisson ? Will we be erecting statues to him dressed in a Roman toga. Does Cameron = Canning. The new liberal / reforming Tories after the dark days of the Iron Duke / Lady ?
107
sorry Socrates but I cannot agree. All economic commentators agree that fuel duties hit the poorest in society proportionatly more. Whilst we may agree that it would be good to have far better public transport in Britain and it is something we should be trying to sort out, for the foreseeable future it is simply not a viable alternative for the majority of people and in fact the costs make it more viable for the rich than the poor.
Oil is too good to burn, that I agree with. But the txation policies being used will not deal with that problem and nor are they designed to. They are simply another way for the government to raise short term funds without considering the serious middle and long term consequences.
103 Punter see Stuart’s post at 22
O/T. Massa starting 9th in a what is likely to be a wet race. Just backed him at 24/1 on Betfair, which seems remarkably generous to me.
114, we also have to consider the uneven effects of fuel duty throughout the country.
London is serviced by a tube system, which few other cities enjoy. Infuriatingly, Balls stated in the latest Yorkshire Evening Rag that if Leeds had a ‘better run’ council (it’s a Lib-Conservative coalition) we might have had more funding for things like the tram system we were promised.
Rant over, rural versus urban is also a major factor. If you’re in the middle of nowhere you have little choice (short of being a fit cyclist or a superfit runner) but to have a car, and by definition you’ll have to make longer journeys.
I think the only answer to the energy crisis is to apply an enormous funnel to Balls’ mouth and use the extreme quantity of horse manure produced there as fertiliser to grow crops for biofuel.
111: Flying to Japan on a plane with no beds? The poor little lambs, having to travel the same way everyone else does.
Credit where it’s due, good to see Gordon ditching the “Blair Force One” plan and keeping the costs down.
49: I’m sorry; it’s a spectularly stupid idea. Please go read the Oil Drum or The Petroleum Economist.
What happens if oil goes to $200, or $300, does the government start subsidizing oil? And where does the money come from to pay for this reduction?
Not only that, but do you really think that discouraging fuel saving (at a time when the UK is a net oil importer, for the first time in a quarter century) is a good idea?
This is the same kind of logic as the “summer gasoline tax holiday” in the US.
You clearly know next to nothing about economics. And more frighteningly, Mr Osbourne skipped introduction to micro-economics.
116, good luck. Massa’s been pretty good recently, but I can’t see him winning this. Didn’t see qualifying, but staggered Webber was second. Raikonnen/Hamilton will probably win (dull, safe bet, I know).
119 where will the money come from? From raising duty when the price is low, hence the term: stabiliser.
I think I’ll take George Osborne’s view over yours any day of the week. Let’s see how the press covers the idea tomorrow, shall we, Robert?
18 Where did you see that.
119
Is it rally so stupid when the alternative is the massive inflationary surge we are seeing as a result of the hike in oil prices combined with the economic illiteracy of the current Labour regime?
You use the logical fallacy of taking the idea to its most extreme conclusion. No one is saying that the givernment should be subsidising fuel prices per se. Simply that it makes sound economic sense not to exacerbate an already bad situation by taking more and more tax from people.
107. Socrates: If we want to be helping the poorest, we should be cutting income tax, not fuel duty.
The one tax change I would like to see is fixing the income tax personal allowance at 1,920 times the hourly national minimum wage. That would take a large number of people out of income tax entirely and would also mean that an increase in the NMW would see *everyone* benefit.
The current figure for the personal allowance would, therefore, be just under £10,600 - not far off the £10k that I have seen advocated somewhere.
121: errr… except that requires the price of oil to fall below $87. Right now, Brent futures for 2012 delivery are… wow… more than $40 higher than that.
What you are suggesting is as economically and financially illiterate as the government playing commodity futures. This ’stabalizer’ is - at heart - no different to the government selling millions of dollars of oil short. (That is, it is betting on the price of oil to decline.)
119.
When asked why can’t the government simply charge a fixed amount of duty per litre, government spokespeople always try and change the question.
Not read the thread yet but there are two reasons why the Johnson thing is pretty much nothing, maybe a first shot to see where the media stand but in essence an empty issue.
Firstly, as stated before, his employ in various positions of authority is the initial problem, politicians tend to use those who have been successful in high level positions. Who allowed Lewis to gain those positions? Is it the government and CRB failures? If so this issue is 90% a government problem and 10% a mayoral one, competence is based on trust in the past, if you can’t trust teh past then teh past is to blame.
Secondly, remember Livingstone, he was personally involved in corruption as the mayor with his knowledge of Jasper, Johnson appears to have had no official link with Lewis until his apointment. As such the censure of Johnson need be minuscule.
It is useful for the tories to see who is desperate enough to jump on anything though that they have made more of this than is there, they can then aim their fire at them or butter them up as necessary.
Thre are interesting parallels as to how the US right wing commentariat is approaching Obama, changing their views as befits the present attack (is Johnson racist or does he employ dodgy blacks?) or blaming him for things beyond his control (who has issued support and so on).
Now to read the thread….
124
Nice idea but is it viable economically? How much would it reduce government income by? Note I am not at all opposed to reducing government income substantially. Just I am interested in how much this particular scheme would cost.
107. The poorest pay little or no income tax. Cutting indirect taxes helps them far more.
119. While I disagree with the idea, I think you’re making a flaw. The stabilised is designed to keep revenue equal, so you’d never get a negative tax rate.
124. I would personally like to see the personal allowance go up to about 15k, with something like a 35% flat tax rate beyond that.
129. Then cut it on goods, not on bads.
125: Actually, it’s even more financially illiterate than the government playing commodity futures. If governments do this kind of thing, the price signals that oil is in short supply are reduced and the markets don’t compensate as much as they should by reducing demand. Which makes the volatility in the price of oil even worse.
90 - that was what I was thinking when they just had the list of candidates on BBC News24. You couldn’t script this one - Labour’s x th choice candidate and has the same name as another candidate but is lower on the list, and also has the word ‘Socialist’ in their description - brilliant!
What’s so brilliant about all these by elections is how they keep exposing the fractures in the NuLabour coalition.
C&N exposed the traditional white working class Labour vote in decline. Henley then exposed the middle class idealistic GMW Labour voter in decline, and now Glasgow East systematically exposes the traditional catholic working class west of Scotland vote in decline as well.
Brown believes in Brutishness but flies to Saudi on a French plane and to Japan on an American plane.
What does that say about him and what does it say to the host nations about British industry and services - that we do not believe in our own so why should anyone else.
128. Richard Tyndall: Nice idea but is it viable economically? How much would it reduce government income by?
I wouldn’t expect the change to be made in isolation, and apologise if I gave that impression.
I would imagine that it could be brought in alongside other measures that would make the whole package revenue-neutral, but I will quite happily admit to not knowing enough about the tax system to be able to give an estimate on how much it would cost!
134. Economic nationalism is why the French economy is so bad, we don’t need to return to it here.
123: there is a belief, prevalent in the Labour Party, the press, and - alas - the Conservatives, that the price of oil has risen because of excessive speculation. Or that the current rise is somehow a temporary bubble or spike.
The price of oil has risen because: (a) China and India are industrializing and using more of the stuff; (b) production is in decline in many (basically all non-OPEC) parts of the world; and (c) new reserves are more difficult and expensive to extract and refine.
Unless you can overturn the laws of economics, geology and physics, these will not change anytime soon.
So, the idea that the government can make this “tax neutral” by capitalizing on future low oil prices is farcical and absurd.
As to inflationary; you forget that the smaller the portion of petrol that is excise duty, the more susceptible the price is to fluctuations in the underlying. So, if tax is 80% of the total cost, then a doubling of the price of oil has a 20% change on the price at the pumps. Where taxes are low - i.e. the US - there has been a 200% change in the price of petrol at the pump.
134 Whoops, a Freudian mistake by my auto spell checker of Brutishness for Britishness. But then the cap fits whichever you choose.
134. Witan: Brown believes in Brutishness
Great typo!
132
Not true because you are dealing with two separate issues - one is the price of oil and the other is the price of fuel. Since the overall government take on the oil that goes to make fuel is about 89% of the original value of the barrel of oil, then they have plenty of scope for adjusting the revenue take to ease the burden on the consumer.
This becomes even more imperative when you hear that Local Councils have had to spend an extra £200 million on fuel this year and will therefore have to use up their contingency funds to cover the costs because their fuel budgets will be exhausted by October…. which will mean higher council taxes as well.
The idea that the government can simply continue to take an ever increasing amount of money out of the economy through fuel taxes is ludicrous.
130: my preferred tax system too!
I don’t see how any stabilisation system can be tax neutral in the context of continued rises in oil prices.
“Have you noticed, that it’s the dear ‘ol Mail and Mail on Sunday, that seem to run the more anti-Tory stories: how things have changed.”
Of course, they like the most authoritarian party and now that’s labour. The most useful yardstick as regards my views is that I am most likely to dislike what teh Mail likes.
Robert
“production is in decline in many (basically all non-OPEC) parts of the world”
Not true in Norway. Which is Non OPEC and also until recently the third largest oil exporter in the world. That has only changed because of inceases in export from other (OPEC) countries which has been faster than that in Norway.
Socrates if the head of government doesn’t think it important to use his own nation’s services why should anyone else?
We are not talking French protectionism here, rather the need for the government to promote the UK services and industry by action not just by spending vast amounts on embassies and trade delegations all over the world. And many of those people will have their head in their hands that Brown has done it again.
140. “The idea that the government can simply continue to take an ever increasing amount of money out of the economy through fuel taxes is ludicrous.”
Only idiots around GB plan that. Most external advocates of petroluem tax know that a high price will change consumption patterns, lowering how much petrol is consumed.
Robert, you are possibly being deliberately obtuse. It doesn’t “require the price of oil to fall to $87 a barrell” or whatever. It doesn’t set the price of oil, doesn’t keep it at a given price. The system of flexible tax rates ensures the price of oil will be more stable, ie fluctuate less, than it would do otherwise. It doesn’t mean it’ll be static. So the price of a barrel means little.
If oil prices fall, tax rates increase; if they rise, rates decrease; revenue-neutral, not a price control. It merely reduces pain of rising oil. It doesn’t eliminate it.
108 - Once ‘Grumpy Old Man’ now ‘Tetchy Little Kid’.
145
But that is based on the idea that people are using their cars as a luxury rather than a necessity. Of course that is true for some people, but most need their cars for basic day to day survival. More importantly, we need a viable haulage system and we need councils to be able to do things like take our rubbish away. The high cost of fuel is an economic disaster for the country even if we did have a viable public transport system - which we don’t.
It is the duty of the gorvernment to ensure economic stability. That is spomething Brown has singularly failed to do at any time and he is turning a crisis into a disaster by refusing to consider easing the tax burden from fuel duty.
And it would be a flexible scale - of course. If oil went to $300 a barrell fuel tax would be kept as low as possible. Every commodity goes through cycles. A senior oil trader I spoke to recently sees a significant fall by this time next year, for example.
barrel. Sorry for the typo again.
Richard, 143: not true. See http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4112
Norwegian oil production has been declining for five or six years. Last year - and despite record oil prices - it dropped 7%.
141. It’s quite easy. You would have a system where the tax per unit equals the amount of revenue, divide the price, divide the number of units.
Thus say you have £100,000 total revenue, and the price is £100 per unit and 100 get sold per (say) month. Your tax would be 100,000/(100*100) = £10. If the price went up to £200, causing only 80 to be sold per month, your tax becomes 100,000/(200*80) = £6.25.
144. The government, like everyone else, should use the best offer available, and use other policies to encourage British firms to be the most competitive. Otherwise you would get increasingly inefficient British companies relying on the fact they can always business from the govt.
148. Around me I know plenty of people of all incomes who have started cycling to the train station more, car-sharing etc. Mobility might be a necessity but car use isn’t, and it is clear to all that high petrol prices are changing consumer behaviour. (And indeed, changing business investment behaviour to better fund research into alternate fuels.)
I do appreciate that there is a limit to how much behaviour can be changed over the short-term, and thus some poor people are paying much more of their income towards fuel. The best way to help them is to give them tax relief from other sources, in a way that wouldn’t stop the beneficial changes in behaviour.
Anyone out there know who foots the bill for the G8 meetings.
The current waste of space is estimated to cost in excess of £200 million.
Will a UK politician speak out against this obscenity ??
153: but the point, as Edmund in Tokyo made clear, is that by playing with the tax rate you are muddying the economic signal that oil is in short supply. In the short-term that might be helpful, in the long-run it is disastarous.
Test is right that the best way to tax petrol is a straight “x pence per litre” system. Doesn’t scale with price. Doesn’t mess with the price signals. But, for our economy, it is better that the level is higher rather than lower. (If you don’t believe me, compare the average fuel economy of an Americal car with a British one. We drive more fuel efficient cars because petrol is more expensive. And as a result we suffer less when oil prices rise.)
148 “most need their cars for basic day to day survival”.
Do you know the meaning of the word ’survival’?
Re Glasgow East, the fact that Labour are putting up Margaret Curran and the SSP are putting up Frances Curran should confuse a fair number of Labour voters. Unbelievably 50% of the electorate in this constituency have no qualifications of any sort and sadly adult literacy issues is a major problem there. I would not be surprised if a couple of hundred people vote for Frances instead of Margaret and that could be crucial to the outcome if we are looking at a 25% turnout.
Socarates and others, I am not an economist but I do live in the countryside. All those expounding “uber Green policies” are either very rich or live invery urban communities.
I live 7 miles from the longest trunk road in the country, the A9 which is roughly 250 miles long, running from Stirling in the south to Wick in the north. Therefore I do not live in “the wilds” like many on the east coast. However I do live 4 miles from the nearest bus stop, train station (where the train only stops if you phone ahead to ask it to do so) village, shop, post office, pub, school, hotel etc, 8 miles from the nearest bank or supermarket and 15 miles from the nearest hospital where I will be going to visit my grandmother in under 1 hour.
So if my 72 year old mother and I wish to visit my grandmother using public transport we have to walk for 4 miles and then wait 1 hour for a bus which will then take 3/4 hour to go 15 miles. The bus will cost around £3-4 each way so for us to take public transport would cost between £12 and £16 and up to 3 hours to get there. If I drive, it takes me 15 minutes and I can also stop off at the supermarket in the neighbouring town and buy the Sunday papers (as our local shops don’t open on a Sunday), top up petrol which incidentally is costing £1.21 per litre for unleaded and £1.33 for diesel as of yesterday and then visit my grandmother.
We dont have access to mains gas as the national pipeline stops in Alness, 15 miles to the south so we can only have electric heating, oil, tank gas or solid fuel.
In FRance and several other countries within the EU, Governments charge lower tax on petrol in rural areas in order to compensate for public transport inadequacies. In Britain the Westminster Government has refused to seek an order from the EU permitting this, even though the relevant Commissioner has indicated he would look favourably on such an application.
Its time the Westminster Government started to tax petrol following a similar system to the weighting insurance companies apply to policy weighting. It would be relatively easy to apply a range of taxes on petrol stations depending on their postcodes. Before any suggests it, it is ludicrous to think urban drivers would drive 4 or 5 miles out into the countryside to take advantage of lower petrol prices due to variable tax levels. It would cost them more than the saving achieved.
This Labour Government has waged war on the countryside and those of us who live in it and its time it remembered we are not some sort of “living museum” to be admired by city types on their holidays or weekends away. Milk doesn’t get created in tetrapacks and meat and bread don’t “grow” in plastic bags or containers. Soon we wont have any farmers left to grow and produce the food which city types take for granted in Waitrose, Sainsbury, Tescos, ASDA, Morrisons or any other shop!
Off to see granny in hospital so back later.
130. Socrates: I would personally like to see the personal allowance go up to about 15k, with something like a 35% flat tax rate beyond that.
An interesting proposal. Using figures of £15k and 35%, the numbers work out like this:
Annual income: net benefit
0-6035: zero
6035-15000: positive, increasing
15000: local peak, +£1793
15000-26953.33: positive, decreasing
26953.34-40835: negative, increasing
40835: trough, -£2082.25
40835-82480: negative, decreasing
82480: zero
82480+ : positive, increasing, unbounded.
I guarantee you that will get spun as “helping the super-rich”, especially if introduced by a Tory government - even though the net benefit doesn’t return to its local peak until just under £120k…
Eastercross: “In FRance and several other countries within the EU, Governments charge lower tax on petrol in rural areas in order to compensate for public transport inadequacies.”
Eminently sensible. But I thought this was mostly achieved today through the liberal use of ‘red’ diesal in farming communities
151
A drop that the Norwegian government said was entirely due to a lack of rigs and infrastructure due to high costs. The amount of oil reserves in Norway is still vast but the government is maintaining a policy of limiting exploration and development as a means of controlling the growth of the industry.
At present only a third of Norway’s total resources have been developed and an area larger than the whole North Sea still awaits any meaningful exploration. It will certainly keep me in a job until I retire.
156
in economic terms it means being able to go to work to earn money and get to the shops to buy food. You may live in a city where these things are easy to do without a car. Many people do not and are therefore penalised.
I would also guess that you have never had to carry all your shopping home on a bus with a couple of kids to deal with at the same time.
157. Indeed remember the notorious ‘Literal Democrat’ in 1994 Euros. I wouldn’t liked to have been that individual that night with the Lib Dems nearby…….
157
Oil tank .. OUCH, it costs me £2000 to fill my tank (61p a litre for 28 sec kerosene), and it its not nicked, lasts two months in a cold winter.(we have had several thefts recently in our area) I have had to buy a wood burning stove and forage for wood as I can’t afford to have the central heating on all the time.
163 Are you driving a Tank?
The Ray Lewis episode indicates some of the problems the Tories will face. How they deal with it will be interesting. They want to use the private, voluntary sector to help bring alienated groups back into the wider society. The people likely to be able to reach out to these groups are likely to be from within those groups. I doubt if Lewis would have been effective if he had been a happily married chartered accountant who’d led a blameless life. They are not going to be saints. They may well have racy pasts.
If the Tories are going to put money into these groups they need to be sure it is accounted for correctly. Otherwise, what is a good idea will sink with the first corruption scandal.
In retrospect it was also an error putting Lewis into a high-profile political position. We need to encourage these people and use their talents but it is not fair to put them in frontline political posts. Better this is learned now than when the Tories win the next election. We might not just have lost a deputy mayor but, by ruining Lewis’s career, some young people might have lost the chance to escape a life of social alienation.
160: although I think you’ll find that’s not what you claimed. You claimed production was growing, even though it is down sharply from its peak despite a substantially higher oil price.
In the last three years, I’ve met with the managements of Statoil, NorskHydro and Revus. While rig shortages are no doubt a factor, they all agree that the easiest reserves were the first to be exploited.
164
Try oil fired central heating yourself.. its v painful, the cost has increased horrendously (double in a year), far worse than petrol and diesel
157. I appreciate that some people don’t have that much choice which is why I would want tax relief in other areas. But there are other things that could also be tried: bigger subsidies for alternative fuel cars etc.
However, ultimately I think people need to appreciate that there are going to be different benefits and costs in living in different locations. If you choose to live in the city you have to deal with much greater living costs on all sorts of things, and people should factor that in when making life decisions. It’s not for government to come along and make sure the tax system evens out every commodity price for every type of neighbourhood.
158 - this shows the difficulties in flat tax. I am in favour of tax simplification, and I quite like the idea of flat tax - but where oh where to set the rates and threshold?
154-I agree.
But how much was pished up against the wall for other jamborees? Bali anyone? Durban anti-racism “conference” (remember it?), etc
163. The government should certainly be using some of the windfall to dramatically subsidise people converting to more efficient heating systems.
162 - His intervention in Winchester in 1997 was even more notable - during one of the recounts, when it looked as if Oaten had lost, he is supposed to have lruched towards the Literal Democrat, shouting “I’ll f***ing have you, Huggett!!” (insert suitable joke here).
169. I suspect most people from about 35k-80k would be inclined to support the system either because they approve of tax simplification, or because they want to help the poor.
158. Did you factor in NI, out of interest?
157. Interest point here from Easterross that could have implications for the Haltermprice and Howden by-election:
‘I am not an economist but I do live in the countryside. All those expounding “uber Green policies” are either very rich or live invery urban communities.’
The Greens have never stood before in Davis’ seat. They are 2/5 to win the contest without Davis with William Hills (available online again). My gut feeling is that Easterross is right - the Greens do best among urban intellectuals. I think by and large those that enjoy the rural life and want to preserve the environment in seats like this Davis’, vote Conservative.
And what about the far right National Front - how will they do in a very white semi-rural seat? They’re 5/1 second favourite behind Davis. I’d have thought they’d poll better in deprived urban areas where racial tensions sadly can be exploited. Will they poll worse than the BNP had they stood? The National Front have never tried to hide their thuggishness.
It’s partly because of the strutural weaknesses of two of these opponents that I think Jill Saward has an excellent chance of doing well. She’s by and far the best communicator among the ‘other’ candidates and if the polls are right she is representing the majority view on 42 days and CCTV. I can’t see how she can be other than the favourite in this market.
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2193132
171
I don’t think there is a windfall.(unless someone knows better) I read recently that sales of petrol and diesel were down 30% so I reckon the Govt isn’t making any money out of the high fuel price.
175. A few grammar errors in there. Apologies!
175 Favourite to win?!
178. No favourite to win this market - betting without Davis.
178. Look at all the media coverage she’s won:
http://www.trueliberty.org.uk/press/press.htm
175 - Greens are starting to outpoll labour in these type of seats if Henley is anything to go by. They wouldn’t have beaten the lib dems but I would expect labour to have come fourth, another reason why they didn’t stand.
As for the NF I again disagree, their vote is nothing to do with urban/rural, it is the fear of encroachment by immmigrants. As such, H&H on the outskirts of Hull may be pretty fertile ground for them. I don’t think they’d quite beat labour but, as per Henley, they would be pretty close. I doubt that most voters would understand the difference with the BNP but there should be some depession of their vote because of it.
If Seward does well it will be a sad day for democracy, a government using such a proxy is unconscionable, partly because of the push to support but also because democracies should never be run by those who are angered from personal experience.
She presages a vigilante society and who would want that?
181. ‘If Seward does well it will be a sad day for democracy’
I beg your pardon?!! If she does well then it will be because she wins plenty of votes. An elementary party of the democratic process. I find it a bit odd that you find the potential ’success’ of an independent candidate defending victims more unsettling that the National Front polling well. I think that’s screwed up.
174. Socrates.
No. Just comparing with the current tax year’s income tax rates.
181. ‘a vigilante society’????? By saying that CCTV helps conviction rates. What’s vigilante about that?
184I am sure I read tha the evidence suggests that CCTV is marginal in clearing up crime, most of the footage is so bad it cant be used in court.
185. Do you think the Tories should be campaigning to reduce the amount of CCTV cameras then?
186. Nick Clegg has already said that he thinks CCTV cameras should be cut by a third in town and city centres.
Nick Palmer. You really are becoming tiresome over this nit-picking about Boris. I appreciate that given the dire situation of Labour you will atempt to capitalise on Conservative mistakes. But this desperate attempt to divert attention is pathetic. You talk about Boris’s supposed lack of attention to detail, what a pity Ken didn’t show much either. That way the missing and misused millions from London’s taxes might not have gone astray. Just remember that Boris is still finding his feet and is at least trying to do the right thing for everyone and, unlike Ken, not only the faction that voted for him.
But, most importantly, just who has been hurt by this apart from Ray Lewis? answer: nobody. There has been no corruption, no discrimination against any race or religion, no hand in the till, no stirring of racial hatred as there would have been with Ken. We would have had claims of “racism” and “smears from the right wing press”. And don’t forget that on this week, in Time Out, Ken was regretting that he hadn’t had Ray Lewis on his team.
So, I recommend that you take your pretend balanced view and examine it carefully before your next post.
182 - She is a stooge, a labour put up. At least the NF are putting themselves in front of the public, as hateful as they are.
184 - That the people who mete justice should be the people who have been wronged. It’s a Wild West attitude.
189 The NF regard the BNP as far too liberal
104. Boris has taken responsibility by finishing him.
At last we find a leader that does take responsibility - unheard of in Britain since 1997 or maybe even 1990.
Blair ducked every challenge, including the sacking of Gordon Brown, for which we now are paying a heavy price. Our ‘no one must be allowed to fail’ culture merely ensures continual failure. Boris is the vanguard of the fightback, in which success will be rewarded, and failure confronted.
It’s time.
190 - ‘Seab’? Have you changed your name?!?
I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again:
Ms Saward does not have the right to emotively campaign for the police to be given the power to retain my DNA like some rapist’s just because she’s bitter at the judiciary for failing so egregiously to adequately punish hers.
I’m sure a majority of the public would be in favour of the public execution of paedophile child murderers. Would this automatically legitimise the right of, say, Sarah Payne’s mother to campaign for election on this platform?
It’s wild-west, rabble-rousing, lynch-mob politics.
192- I think it is because of his love of all things Swedish that he is trying to sound like a Swedish car!
Actually, bannedhorse, Jill Saward isn’t seeking to win this election because she is bitter at the judiciary; she is seeking to win this election because, after working with more than 3,000 victims of sexual violence and abuse in the past 22 years she can see major problems with the criminal justice system and how it deals with victims of crime. She isn’t campaigning for the police to retain your dna “like a rapist” - by including everybody on the dna database everybody would be treated equally; unlike now where some people who are on it are innocent of any crime but treated with suspicion.
By the way - before you say those “innocent” people should be remvoved; the inclusion of this category of people on the database has empowered the police to solve 114 murders, 55 attempted murders, 116 rapes, 68 other sexual offences, 119 aggravated burglaries and 127 drugs offences.
It is for this reason - ie, that it works in detecting crime - that Jill Saward is campaigning for the dna database to be widened - so that we can all be safe. She is not doing so out of some personal grudge.
And, as I’ve pointed out on another blog - if Jill Saward really is a Labour party candidate do you think you could ask the Labour party to provide some funds? Jill Saward is standing as an independent because she is an independent. She is not now, nor as she ever been, a member of a political party and has received no backing from any political party; although individuals in a number of political parties have offered their personal support.
Gavin, if the police want the broadest spectrum of the population on the DNA database, then they should do so by a programme of consent. And if politicans want it too, then they should persuade the population, not do it by bullying or sneaky stealthiness. Give people modest tax breaks/reductions in council tax, for example - in a harsh economic climate, I reckon you’d get 90% coverage within 12 months.
Well done Lewis Hamilton - exceptional drive in the wet.
anon at 126: no, they say, truthfully, the duty per litre is already a fixed rate. I think you’re confusing it with VAT, which is levied on almost all expenditure, and gives a fairly stable yield regardless of the price of individual goods.
The “Fair Tax on Fuel” is obviously appealing to voters but I genuinely can’t see how it would work. As I understand it, the proposal is that if the price of fuel rises, the duty comes down and vice versa, with no other tax changes. Problems with this that immediately occur to me:
1. If there is a sustained rise in oil prices (which many think quite likely), there will be a sustained fall in revenue. test argues that all commodity prices are cyclical, but this is far from always the case in the short to medium term - we could easily see an entire Parliament with oil rising continuously, playing complete havoc with the finances.
2. How would Osborne plan his budgets, with a major element varying from year to year? Say he decides that £X billion of spending minus tax should be injected into the economy, or £Y billion taken out, both perfectly normal things for any Chancellor trying to get balanced growth. If oil went up in price, he’d automatically take less tax, so injecting more than intended, increasing inflation at a time when fuel was rising. If oil went down, he’d take more tax, deflating the economy when he hadn’t intended to. Would he constantly have mini-budgets to rebalance?
3. What exactly *is* the price of fuel? It varies from garage to garage. Unless the government were to get into defining a mandatory national price, presumably this would need to based on wholesale prices, say Brent crude. That fluctuates every day, sometimes significantly. Would the levy keep jumping up and down? We’re familiar with motorists topping up before a Budget rise - would they need to start second-guessing the price of Brent crude every day?
82: Yes, I’ve read the Treaty and the Constitution and two different comparisons - see my website. And yes I read my constituents’ mail - I defy you to find a constituent who thinks I don’t. I’ve not read the Secret Dossiers of the Elders of Labour or whatever it is you’re referring to.
Boris’s defenders’ main argument on this thread has been that Ken would have done the same, did worse, or whatever. It’s a fall-back position. Unlike most of you I’ve been in a working environment with Boris - seriously, don’t expect too much when it comes to detail.
But how much is the Treasury leeching out of road users per litre? No garage ever states Petrol 116p per litre (tax is x p per litre).
198 You just can’t leave Boris alone can you? If his main problem is not getting involved in the minutiae of everything so much the better for Londoners. Effective leaders know how to delegate, not a charge that could be levelled against the present, and hopefully very temporary incumbent, of No 10 Downing Street.
181 - if I may offer a local view from H&H’s neighboroughing constituency, the BNP and their ilk have never made any real impact around here. The NF hoodlums will be nowhere.
201. Thanks Andy D, that’s helpful. What about the Greens?
198. Nick, maybe you should resign your seat and fight a by-election on the current taxation arrangements on fuel?
The Tories could put up their candidate with the alternative taxation arrangement you oppose. Not sure *local factors* will save your bacon though!
198. “Unlike most of you I’ve been in a working environment with Boris - don’t expect too much when it comes to detail”. Anyone in his position - CEO of a large organisation, Mayor even PM - has to ensure they do not bogged so much in detail that they fail to get “the vision thing”. Particularly true of a Prime Minister.
181 - Unfortunately we are seeing in local elections an increasing presence by the BNP/NF in such areas. Nearly every week I am shocked by a high vote for them in an area presumed to be poor ground for them.
apols if already been asked but…
is HenryG Manson the same person as HenryG who has been posting here for ages?
198
Perhaps we should invite Boris to come here and tell us what its like being with you in a working environment.
The Lewis affair is very unfortuante but then again he is at this time guilty of nothing - same as that Hain chappy of yours when he resigned ‘to clear his name’, doesn’t stop a belaguered Labour party led by the squirrel-in-chief wading in like feeding time at the zoo. Its like the the good old again except Labour have no substance or soul now.
Quick work on the Tory proposals there - surprised if your maths is that good that you and the rest of Labour weren’t so quick to see the catastrophe of the 10p tax issue….
207
*good old days again
On the government requesting shops stockpile food:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4276490.ece
Is this the same government that sent leaflets round saying we should have a few days food just in case of a terrorist outrage - A dirty bomb perhaps?
The Government is without doubt completly irresponsible not having any food stores. What if sellerfield had an accident? People would not be able to go to the shops etc and surely truck drivers would stop deliveries? The government needs to reapraise the *stockpile* question as contigency of food supplies is central to national security.
The government is weak on national security, they obviously have not looked into the details!
186 I was merely making the observation that most CCTV images were useless and couldn’t be used in court. There seems little point in having many of them, I guess in small shops they rely on the deterrent effect. Personally, I don’t like the idea of my image being caught on CCTV 300 times a day as appealing.
Executive Mayors, however, need a much more detail-oriented approach than many other jobs. It’s not so much about detailed micro-management of the sort Brown is accused of (something that workaholic PMs, like Peel and Heath, are often guilty of) but ensuring that the management you do put in place are carrying forward our agenda, and are co-ordinating effectively with each other and also with the many other organisations the GLA had to work with. I’ve always thought that this would be a big problem for Boris; he definitely floundered on the detail during debates, and he’s not coming from a London background. But this isn’t fatal. All administrations have teething troubles, and, as long there isn’t a systemic failure on Boris’ watch, he should be able to cope.
198…VAT does not give a fairly stable yield regardless of the price.the higher the price the higher the yield.i really don’t think Mr Palmer that you have any idea what it is that you are saying.you got mixed up the other day regarding tax allowances,if you remember!
209
Good points there - the way I see it is that its the responsibility of each subject to be able to survive (food and water wise) for a minimum of 3-5 days without assistance which gives government (local and national) a chance to put in place responses - after that the onus clearly is on the government as all bets are off for your average man, woman or child in the street.
This government however I wouldn’t trust to last 5 minutes in a crisis - if they are not implicated in it themselves by inaction or incompetence (witness last summer), they will find a way to disappoint
211. You would not expect a CEO to investigate an employees details, particularly when there are thousands of employees. It would be left for HR to do this or some other person. It is completly rediculous for Labour to claim this is some sort of failure of Boris.
People in glass houses should not throw stones: Hain, Harmen, Alan Johnson, Benn and that women in Scotland who has just resigned all did things in their name and none of them were jeered at by Labour loyalists. Maybe HH, Benn and Alan Johnson should resign as well? They have obviously failed to look at the details and none of them were CEO’s?
205. The natural consequences of a Government that puts a sign outside its offices saying ‘No Whites, No men, No dogs’.
213. I keep my own basic supply of canned food, dried mash and also pasta! I bought about 20 packets of speggetti recently from Asda @ 23p a packet! 10Kg of the stuff! That was not just in case of an emergency but because it was a bloody good deal!
202 - I’m afraid I don’t really know how to call the Greens’ chances, and wouldn’t want to mislead any fellow punters by saying otherwise.
In a wholly unusual by-election like this I guess lots of things are possible, and while accepting that H&H is substantially different to Hull, the Greens could be encouraged by some reasonable figures here earlier this year. For me though, all bets are off.
Why don’t the government just cull the Lords instead of doing it this way?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article4276492.ece
195. In the words of Ben Franklin:
“They who would give up an essential liberty for security, deserve neither liberty or security.”
214 - For conventional posts, yes. For political appointees, who do not go through conventional recruitment processes, it is responsibility of some in Boris’ position to ensure that the proper procedures are in place to identify problems like these before they emerge. If Boris had been aware, and got Ray Lewis to make a full disclosure of his side of the story before he was appointed, the story would be dead by now and Ray Lewis could have stayed in place.
217. DD will win by a mile - No doubt about it. It will be a case of does Davis get 70, 80 or 90 percent of the vote!
216
lol - you need to get one of those pasta thermos things - that way if the power and gas are out you just need a fire to boil water and you can still cook your spaghetti in the pasta thermos
219
Absolutely - it would be perfectly equitable for every person in the UK to be branded with a unique number which must be used and logged for all purchases and interrogated once a year to ensure they have done no harm, it would be equal treatment if we all had to have an ID card and produce it to a police officer on demand and we could all have tachographs for humans fitted so our movements were logged. All of these would improve the security of the country.
218. We need a second chamber. But why 400 of them? What’s wrong with 100? It works great in the US Senate. If Nick P’s here I’d like his thoughts.
Nick - hand on heart, is there anything in terms of detail you want to get off your chest? you know, a vote in parliament where you troop through the lobby and ask one of your mates ‘what’s this about’?
thought not. Ray Lewis was given a job to show how seriously Boris takes knife crime and gang violence - a pity you and your chums in the remnants of the LAbour party are too busy practising the politics of poisonous personal vilificationto take the matter seriously - why worry about the problem when there’s some tasty ad hominem attacks we can make.
As you haven’t mentioned it can I take it you have sent Helen and DOuglas House the money from our Boris bet? I am assuming it’s a financial detail you won’t have overlooked, it’s only £30 so won’t put the expenses claim under strain.
221 DD to win next week - then in 2010 Con gain all Yorkshire inc Sheffield Hallam!!!!
222. Good point!
225 Fortunate for you Ave it as a comfort as Watford slide to the Conference….. Watford=Wimbledon HA HA HA HA
166,
“the easiest reserves were the first to be exploited”
I don’t know who you are meeting with but from an exloration perspective that is not accurate or rather it is no longer accurate. The ‘easiest’ reserves in Norwegian waters were exploited in the central and southern areas of the North Sea and are still being exploited. In fact many of those originally thought to have become uneconomic are now being redrilled and have long lifes ahead of them - Talisman’s Yme project being a good example.
But the main hindrence on exploitation has not been economic but political. Exploration north of the Haltenbank and into the Barents Sea has been hindered by the miserly way in which the Norwegian government has distributed licences. So in the forthcoming round of licening only a third of the requested areas for exploration have been granted licences. As I said, Norway has currently begun developing less than a third of its potential reseves so any discussion of Peak oil as far as Norwegian production is concerned is very premature. Put simply, they haven’t even started to look at what they might have in much of their continental shelf so you simply don’t have the information on which to base such claims.
223. I quite agree - could use the euro constitiencies model as a way of electing them.
People of ability and specific experience can always be asked to attend a commitee. The commons could protect it’s supremacy by outlining a “bill of statue” that advises of the constitutional supremacy of the commons. Labour would be better off concentrating on this as it least it would be a lasting legacy for Brown: If he can resist fiddling it to suit Labour!
225. You might say that………..
195. Gavin Drake: 114 murders, etc.
Do you have a source for those figures?
227 Punter = LOL to the power of Mark Senior!
231 Wartford FC = So cheap you could buy it Ave it…HA HA HA HA HA
199. Dr Spyn and others interested in fuel prices this PDF on unleaded costs is enlightening:
http://www.ukpia.com/Portals/0/Repository/Documents/UKPIA%20UL%2095%20av%20pump%20price%202000%20on.pdf
Unfortunately the 2008 figures understandably are not shown and I haven’t found a monthly tracker.
Further information is available here:
http://www.ukpia.com/fuel_prices_historic_data.aspx
198. Nick P. I’m quite surprised that a mathematician such as yourself cannot see the possibilities that George Osborne is proposing. I envisage an approach from Osborne where the rate of VAT is maintained at 17.5% but the rate of fuel duty is allowed to ‘float’ using some pre-defined thresholds.
So consequently in your point 1 when prices rise consistently the revenue from VAT still increases but the fuel duty rate actually falls. The likely effect would be to stabilise the amount of tax revenue from fuel instead of the current situation that provides significant increases in overall tax revenue when fuel prices go up and vice versa when they fall.
If anything it could make budget projections for tax revenue from fuel more accurate.
After all isn’t the increase in VAT revenues from fuel what is allowing Darling to consider dropping the 2p fuel tax increase? Clearly with the fuel price rises this year the VAT take is way above what must have been expected.
The main thing to remember should Darling drop the fuel tax rise is that it is not an act of altruism from the Government but a simple case of them already having pocketed the additional tax proceeds.
195 - The figures you quote, e.g. 114 murderers, are of course totally made up and exaggerated - not by you I add.
Read:
http://www.genewatch.org/uploads/f03c6d66a9b354535738483c1c3d49e4/brown.pdf
It concludes:
1. The Prime Minister’s claim is false;
2. Ministers are well aware that this claim is false;
3. This figure is misleading to members of the public who are concerned about the implications of retaining innocent people’s records indefinitely on the National DNA Database.
114
“All economic commentators agree that fuel duties hit the poorest in society proportionatly more.”
Are you sure about that? I seem to recall an economic commentator saying that, while that is true in the USA, it is not the case in the UK, as poor Britons are more likely to travel by bus and bicycle.
Morality and moral stances only extends to those who claim it as their own Henry.
There is no other morality if it doesnt suit some people.
233. Thanks haven’t time to look yet, off to sand filler and paintwork
Absolutists get in an awful strop when questioned over morality because they cannot cope with any negation of their position, relativists know that morality is only a marker for a position and use the term accordingly, it isn’t fixed but changes around according to circumstance and situations.
41.
“Give Boris time, he’s only on the nursery slopes!”
Cripes, not another one dragging Chameloon downhill with his nanny!?
Could have sworn I saw Boris at Wimbledoon today. Keeping a careful eye on those backhanders? Just hoping the Ray Lewis List won’t be bringing him to a different Central Court too soon!
234. Rather undermines Jill Saward, then, doesn’t it? The figures have been a centrepiece of her by-election campaign.
84.
“The Lib Dems are not just empty. They are a void within a vacuum surrounded by a vast inanition.”
Tories having vowel-slip problems when describing their merchant banking activities?
234 Richardr, thanks for finding that. I smelt a rat when I saw the figure of 114 murderers. It’s such a shame that Ministers should lie about this, causing all sorts of well-meaning people to be taken in by the hype.
214.
“You would not expect a CEO to investigate an employees details, particularly when there are thousands of employees. !”
So Martin Day has never employed anyone in his life? No boss worth more than ninepence leaves checking out his ‘number twos’ to underlings. Your senior employees are the most important decisions you will ever make.
198 - Nick Palmer demonstrates, once again, a lack of understanding of the tax system. Not surprising really, since the Treasury and his own Chancellor seem unable to get the nation’s accounts signed off.
To make things simple,(always important when dealing with Nick)let us take the tax from fuel as 70%. If the price of petrol on 5th April is £1.42 a litre, the the tax take is £1 per litre.
If it is estimated that we will sell, nationally, 20 billion litres, then the tax take (duty & VAT) will be £20 billion.
If the cost to the supplier goes up by 3p a litre, the supplier puts his price up by 10p a litre, 7p of which will be tax.
So if we leave things as they are, we will take an additional £1.4 billion in tax, so we’d take more tax, deflating the economy when we hadn’t intended to.
If the cost to the supplier goes DOWN by 3p a litre, he would normally puts his price down by 10p a litre, 7p of which would have been tax.
So if we leave things as they are, we will LOSE £1.4 billion in tax, so “injecting more than intended, increasing inflation”
This is exactly the crazy situation we have at the moment!
So what we do is adjust the RATE of tax by bringing the percentage take DOWN when prices are rising and putting the RATE of tax UP when prices are falling so that we always end up with the SAME amount of tax - i.e. £1 - per litre.
It’s really not that difficult - do try to keep up.
214
You don’t think perhaps Richard Ingrams, (who of course knows Boris) has got it right?
http://tinyurl.com/664rf8
Boris seems about 100,000,000,000,000 times better at his job than Nick Palmer.
Latest Gallup Tracker :
McCain 42% .. Obama 48%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/108637/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leads-48-42.aspx
Socrates at 223: I’m a unicameralist at heart - works fine in Denmark, with qualified majorities needed for any constitutional change (such as European treaties!). But if we do have a second chamber I agree that it doesn’t need to be huge. The snag about reducing it to 100 is that this means the Senators’ will be similar in number to Euro-MPs, and hard though most MEPs try, I think it’s fair to say that most voters don’t feel they hear much from them or even know who they are. (They could, in fact, do with a Communications Allowance allowing one annual report to each home.) Is a directly-elected second chamber with such huge constituencies that they’re out of touch a good idea? But I don’t know - how do US Senators manage to stay in touch with millionns of voters in the big states? Perhaps it can be done?
kingbongo at 224: yes indeed, I sent the £30 immediately after Boris won. I’m sorry if I didn’t mention it at the time.
jsfl at 233: no, we’ve discussed this before here, and I think there was fairly wide acceptance of the point that VAT proceeds are unlikely to be rising as fuel prices rise. To recap briefly:
(1) People don’t get richer just because they’re spending more on petrol. Assuming their total disposable income remains the same, if they spend more on fuel, they spend less on something else. The probability is that the something else would also have been subject to VAT, so it’s swings and roundabouts as far as tax take is concerned.
(2) In reality, Britain is collectively poorer when there is a sharp adverse shift in the terms of trade (such as a rise in fuel and food import costs). Economic activity tends to go down and people are less keen to spend. It’s therefore likely, other things being equal, that VAT revneue overall will actually fall in this situation.
Your calculation that a falling levy would be balanced by higher VAT revenues therefore doesn’t work. You’re right that it’s hard to finance all the things that Darling would like to do, including cancelling the 2p rise, and the VAT position makes that harder, not easier.
244 - mirthios, umm, hate to spoil your fun, but fuel tax is not a percentage. It’s a flat rate (around 55p IIRC). So your entire post is nonsense.
246-MB- you seem to be a bit of a silly prat
82 - Boris will probably not rehire Lewis even if the allegations of impropriety some years ago are found to be untrue. Lewis has (reportedly)recently told 2 porkies: (a) that he was a JP but had only been “recommended”for that office and (b) he said that he did not know of his suspension from the Church when it has been reported that he asked for the suspension to be overturned.
Shame really. Lewis had found away to turn kids around. Hopefully his expertise can still be used.
248. I’m a big fan of bicameralism. I think the Lords, for all its flaws, does a great job of pointing out flaws in the Commons. In a parliamentary system, it will also be a check on the executive that the lower house can not hope to be.
But does the constituency link need to be particularly strong in an upper house? If people need help, they can go through the Commons, as they do at the moment. An upper house is, and should be, different, in both makeup and purpose. In the US the Senate is used to be much more national (and international) in outlook than the House. A smaller second chamber would serve to be more collegiate and deliberative in outlook. It also has the great benefit that each Senator has a much bigger profile, and thus can draw media attention to issues and arguments ignored by party leadership in a way House of Commons MPs can’t (no offence!).
I really would urge you to discuss this matter with Jack Straw if you can. If you get the number too small, it can easily be increased later. But if you make it too big, self-interest of members will make it near impossible to reduce.
244 - Read it again Nick.
“Shadow chancellor George Osborne told the BBC the party was looking at plans to cut fuel duty when oil prices rise and increase it when prices fall.”
Whether you call it duty, tax, VAT or anything else you like, the proposal is the same. A marginal change in fuel duty will have the same impact - keeping the tax take on a litre to a pound and the overall tax take steady.
Don’t try to be clever - it doesn’t suit you.
Socrates at 252: yes, I see what you mean. I’ll be glad to pass that on - I can see the argument for having them tkaing a slightly more distant view, and it would fit with the one-off 15-year period.
253: mirthios - I’m hard to wind up no matter how hard you try, but with respect you are working under a misunderstanding. Mr Osborne certainly said what you quote, and one snag about it is that the duty (levy, tax, whatever you want to call it) is a flat rate, so his proposal would require constant adjustment to that flat rate. Your earlier post assumed it is a percentage, and was mistaken. The separate VAT that is levied on the whole cost is of course a percentage, but Mr Osborne is not talknig about that, and has no proposal to vary it - his proposal relates to the flat-rate duty.
254. Thanks Nick, it’s much appreciated. I think many people are looking at Lords reform from a sort of “how can we have as few negatives” perspective, when its actually a great chance to create a body of real standing and independence in our sytem. A body that could keep its head rather than be swayed by the currents of the crowd. One which could be free from the stain of being involved with the executive (forbidding Senators from being part of the government would be another great idea).
I think a system of 100 or even less could have a real sense of it being a foundation of British democracy. It could also help involve people in democracy as the public watching would recognise all the names and speakers. There would also be the benefit that a small number would mean matters would be more likely to be discussed by personal argument and discussion, rather than whipping operations.
248. Nick P. I think you are cleverly confusing the point I was making. I was speaking solely of the VAT on fuel and the pence per litre take for VAT has to be higher today than it was 6 months ago.
Now the only reason why the VAT revenues from fuel sales would fall is if there was a drop in demand thats impact outstripped the price rises. Given the essential nature of fuel I find it hard to believe that in the scenario you outlined (a persistent rise in revenue) that demand for fuel will drop so much that it will negate the greater real amount of VAT taken per litre.
Furthermore, by restricting price rises on fuel through reducing the fixed fuel duty whilst allowing VAT to be maintained at its current rate the likely impact is to reduce pressure for price rises on other consumer goods. Consequently, by doing so potentially consumers will retain a little greater freedom to purchase other goods and therefore reduce the threat of reduced overall VAT take.
Labour MPs were happy to work with George Bush; they can damn well work with Boris.
[256] - I’ve heard reports in the media that demand for petrol and diesel has fallen by 20%, due to the price increases. It’s a sad state of affairs that the Treasury doesn’t publish near real-time data on its tax receipts from revenue such as this so that we could see more clearly for ourselves (wouldn’t have thought it would be hard to do).
Also, it has been pointed out that our regime of particularly high tax on fuel has actually made it easier for our economy to survive the recent increases, because they are proportionately lower. In that sense the tax would have been beneficial by putting our economy ahead of the game and using fuel more efficiently to start with (perhaps by making distribution more efficient?)
254. Nick P:
so his proposal would require constant adjustment to that flat rate
Why? He could say that it was to be reviewed over whatever period he liked. Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, In line with the budget reports, annually or every five years if he wanted.
Nick, you are just making excuses now but no doubt when Darling includes something similar in his pre-budget report you will be gushing about it.
Federer two sets all v Nadal
259
Just wanted to make the point that its the Conservatives leading the agenda yet again,and Labour on the defensive(yet again).
258: Agreed it’s a shame the figures aren’t available. Whilst 20% may be a realistic figure I am increasingly dubious about media assertions on such matters.
However, by my rough calculations the amount that VAT has risen per litre of fuel (in real money terms) since last year is certainly in the region of 20% if not more so I don’t think the VAT take on fuel has reduced significantly. I still suspect that Darling will be able to fund the abolition of the 2p duty rise and still reap slightly higher VAT receipts from fuel.
On your last point I think it is playing semantics with percentages instead of real currency. The lower paid will still know fuel has gone up 10p per litre whether its a 10% rise or a 30% rise.
254: Nick P: “his (Osborne’s) proposal would require constant adjustment to that flat rate.”
That process may be beyond the wit of the current Treasury team - rather like bringing the Northern Rock debt onto the balance sheet - but why should that be considered a barrier to a more sensible regime than we have today.
As you admit yourself, the current increases in tax revenues from petrol are deflating the economy.
Is that really what this Chancellor is aiming for?
And, finally, why are you so sure that the proposal relates to the flat-rate duty?
Evening all.
Although I disagree with Jill Saward completely, I think that her decision to stand has provoked some rather ugly responses. So much for debating the issues.
Osborne’s plan seems an interesting idea. However I can forsee a version of Goodhart’s law coming into play as companies will change their behaviour based on the expectation that the chancellor will lower the rate of tax if they raise prices. I also disagree with it’s purpose, I’ve noticed a lot less cars on the road. Hopefully making a positive contribution to the environment.
264. Fewer not less.
264 - Isn’t it labour not debating the issues? It’s their fault she’s in the firing line, taking the heat for their cowardice.
Anyway, I just can’t agree with the vigilante justice inherent in such a candidacy, that’s even before you get to the issue of the figures she’s using as being falsified.
264. G.
However I can forsee a version of Goodhart’s law coming into play as companies will change their behaviour based on the expectation that the chancellor will lower the rate of tax if they raise prices
I think that the proposal can only work with fixed duties such as fuel, tobacco and alcohol. Other variable percentage taxes such as VAT (which is controlled by the EU anyway) won’t be changed so there isn’t much chance that business are going to think as you suggest.
I also disagree with it’s purpose, I’ve noticed a lot less cars on the road. Hopefully making a positive contribution to the environment.
Ah yes but what happens when the reduced demand you infer leads to job losses and the resultant increased strain on the benefits budget?
Rain in Guildford at the end of the fourth set, I thought then that Wimbledon would get it soon. Shame it wasn’t finished off then.
Mirthios:
“As you admit yourself, the current increases in tax revenues from petrol are deflating the economy.”
->No, I’ve said that the rise in import prices is deflating the economy. The increase in tax revenues from VAT in petrol is being counterbalanced (or more) by a reduction in revenues from VAT elsewhere.
And, finally, why are you so sure that the proposal relates to the flat-rate duty?
->Because that’s what he says. He’s talknig about the ‘duty’ on petrol - not about VAT. To adjust the VAT rate up and down in line with petrol prices would be even more bonkers.
jsfl: “Why? He could say that it was to be reviewed over whatever period he liked. Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, In line with the budget reports, annually or every five years if he wanted.”
->Sure. But then he’s not doing what it says on the tin, adjusting the duty to compensate for fluctuations in fuel price. Either he adjusts frequently to reflect the frequent changes, or he adjusts rarely and doesn’t.
But we’ve given it a good airing, so I’ll leave it there - got a non-political commitment for the rest of the evening.
264. Shouldn’t think so, it’d be easy to pick up any price fiddling - it’s a commodity with daily quoted world-wide benchmark figures, not widgets produced in Wolverhampton.
269. Nick P. I think you’re trying to put words into George Osborne’s mouth. However, that said, enjoy your non-political commitment.
Over 60 million squiddlies on betfair wimbledon men’s final, and erghh, 5k on Glasgow East
271
257.
“Labour MPs were happy to work with George Bush; they can damn well work with Boris.”
Unfortunately there are more similarities than just both being bonkers. Boris was quoting Lewis as having ‘god-given powers’ Good job London can’t delare war on anyone.
Wish it wasn’t raining. That other bonking Boris is on far too much in the quiet bits of Wimbledon and I’m sure he’s a lot better in a broom cupboard than behind a mike.
272- 5,113 matched on Glasgow East- and 157 of those are from my fair own pocket.
62,000,000 riding so far on Nadal/ Federer- though 50 notes already belong to me whoever wins
Re H&H
Can’t say I am an expert on the local issues of the constituancy but I believe they have some issues [the location of wind farms, incinerators etc].
Why would you vote for someone who doesn’t live in the constituecy, doesn’t even say they will if they win and doesn’t intend to come up much during the course of the by election campaign.
Jill Saward may have a great deal to recommended her but anyone with wider concerns is not going to vote on a single issue basis unless the rest [ie a real MP] is a given.
275 And what did you bet.
O/T. ConHome is headlining: “George Osborne announces Tory plans to give relief at petrol pumps.” Is this action for our amusement so that we’re not bothered by the rising prices?
Not saying that Federer WILL definitely win (I think he maybe won most points in both the first two sets he lost) but IF he does, maybe Toryboys on here will remember the BBC commentary team virtually writing him off halfway through the Federer parliament?
Nick 248
“how do US Senators manage to stay in touch with millionns of voters in the big states? Perhaps it can be done? ”
Originally the US Senators were not directly elected, and instead were chosen by and answerable to the state legislatures.
Perhaps each County and Borough Council could choose their representative for the second chamber ?
278 So Federer = Gordon Brown?
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!
279. That would cause more partisanship, not less.
19 “At the Henley by election Labour had a candidate without a campaign and now at Glasgow East Labour have a campaign without a candidate.
Then there is H&H where Labour have no campaign and no candidate.
I know Brown does not like elections but this is getting ridiculous.”
Good post.
267. I think it would work exactly the same for fixed taxes as well as variable, a better argument against would be that in a competitive market prices would be kept low.
I agree there will be economic costs of environmentalism. It’s pain now or greater pain later.
A great game of tennis. Unbelievable.
Was everyone watching the tennis, got very quiet here…
I hope everyone was watching the tennis - hard to imagine you will see a better match!
Shame Federer didn’t win, but they’re both incredible players. Great match.
Also, Brown = Federer? Maybe in the wet dreams of lefty diehards.
Federer’s won 12 Grand Slams, 5 Wimbledons and has been world number one for over four years. Brown has not been elected to anything beyond MP for Kirkcaldy, has bottled out of a general election, a referendum and a by-election amongst other courageous feats.
282 Percy Percy thanks.
Unbelievable match.
Finally managed to finish £15 green on Nadal.
What do PB’s tennis experts think - has the torch been passed and is that now the end of the Federer era?
Will he win any more Grand Slams, can he still beat the Sampras record - and who’ll win the US Open?
A better analogy might be Brown, a so-so club player, had a string of flooky byes as all his opponents suffered injuries - right through to the final. And in the final, he got handed his ass by someone who could properly play the game. 6-0, 6-0, 6-0….
289- had a 50 note win on the tennis. Hard graft mind.
Federer will be back. Did you see just how disappointed he looked? The guy is still the classiest act in tennis despite Rafa’s muscle.
What a match. What a match!
289, I do think Nadal will slowly takeover as top dog.
But not yet. Don’t forget, Federer had glandular fever earlier this year and missed the Australian Open because of that.
He didn’t drop a set until the final and saved 2 Championship Points in the 4th. Nadal deserved to win, but only just.
Next season, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Federer won Wimbledon again. He’s only 26.
SNP now favourites to win Glasgow east on betfair. Someone appears to have bet tuppence which has swayed things.
These are golden times it would seem:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/07/03/bcngold103.xml&CMP=ILC-mostviewedbox
292- Morris- Federer was beaten by Dukovic in the Oz semis this year.
Though agree Gordon is no Federer
294 dont forget Gordo sold most of ours for peanuts.
258, Timothy: “Also, it has been pointed out that our regime of particularly high tax on fuel has actually made it easier for our economy to survive the recent increases, because they are proportionately lower.”
I’ve heard this before and been unconvinced. Maybe I’m missing something obvious.
The way it appears to me is that the effect on any given personal budget of an increase in price of one commodity is to leave less in the budget for spending on other commodities (assuming an commodity that’s inelastic, at least in the short to medium term. Petrol/diesel fits this assumption). The proportionate increase in pain depends not on the baseline price of the commodity in question but on the size of the personal budget. If the commodity in question has a high tax base to start with, then a certain amount of “unnecessary” pain is caused to begin with.
For example, if someone (Person A) has a budget of £100 per week after income taxes (including NI) and accommodation, and has to spend £30 per week on fuel (of which, let’s say £20 is heading to the Treasury), then that someone has £70 per week to spend on other things. Compare with someone under a different tax regime (Person B) who spends £15 per week on the same quantity of fuel (with £5 heading for their Treasury); they’re left with £85 to spend on other things.
Now the price goes up by £10 (£11.75 for our Person A).
With an inelastic commodity (at least in the short to medium term), Person A now has only £58.25 to spend on other things, rather than his earlier £70. His remaining spending power (which is what he is directly most aware of) has gone down by just short of 17%.
Person B (whose tax regime doesn’t include a VAT-style tax) now has £75 per week to spend on other things. His remaining spending power has gone down by a little under 12%.
Proportionately less increase in pain for person B.
In addition, person B has less “pain” incurred in normal week-to-week life than person A, despite having identical incomes and other costs and identical fuel consumption - so the fuel tax regime that person A is under is hardly praiseworthy in that respect.
The amount of pain caused by a £10 a week increase in mortgage cost is the same as the pain cause by a £10 per week increase in the food bill, or in the fuel bill - regardless of the percentage increase in the price of the relevant commodity.
Of course, all of this is predicated solely on the particular argument that the high tax baseline on a given commodity insulates the consumer against price fluidity (which I’d accept if a kind of micro-economic Keynesianism was applied - which seems to be pretty much what Osborne is arguing, regardless of it’s effectiveness or lack of), but the effect on the consumer is that of reducing his disposable income. The environmental argument (and there is a very good argument to be made for a Pigovian tax on a polluting commodity) is outside this.
295, whoops, I’d heard on the BBC ocverage it kept him out of that championship, must’ve misheard or the perosn must’ve been mistaken.
Well, there is a debate about civil liberties going on but I’ll be damned if there’s anything about it in the media, I suppose they don’t want to admit they were wrong but such a lack of reporting is making the media look as though they are doing the government’s bidding.
As per Iain Dale -
“DD has got William Hague, Francis Maude, Liam Fox Dominic Grieve and the Shadow Home Affairs team coming tomorrow, Martin Bell on Tuesday and on Wednesday there’s a big lunchtime public meeting with Labour MP Bob Marshall-Andrews, 7/7 survivor Rachel North and Shami Chakrabarti from Liberty. And tomorrow night DD is debating with Tony Benn at the Queen Elizabeth Hall on the South Bank in London.”
To provide balance it’s also a good weekend for Purnell and Miliband, both jockeying well for when the job is available, Purnell thinking carefully about benefits and Miliband in South Africa. Has Brown given up?
299, the mainstream media, including the likes of Nick “I can read government press release” Robinson, got the Davis situation completely wrong. It was bizarre to hear them (Sky and BBC news) read out that “99% of the public response supports Davis” and then run pieces saying he was bonkers, having a mid-life crisis or had undergone a row with Cameron.
112 I’ve just spent most of the day in Glasgow East. I would be lucky if I got 50% in when I was canvassing. Of those I did get the vast majority were undecided. They were Labour voters but couldn’t decide whether or not they were going to vote or not. I doubt many will actually go to vote for another party, at least not in this election, but I got the impression that many had had enough of Labour and wouldn’t be voting.
From the converations I had today with other activists this seems to be the general reaction on the doors.
Regarding the two Currans on the ballot paper while that certainly may have an effect I would imagine a lot of people look for the party symbol rather than the name of the candidate.
The funniest thing I saw was the leaflet Labour were putting on when canvassing. It had clearly been cut in half (very badly) probably because the top half had the picture of their candidate who backed out at the last minute. It looked absolutely awful but they had nothing else to hand over when canvassing.
Another financial headache may be coming Brown’s way, too -
(from Reuters)
AIX-EN-PROVENCE, France, July 6 (Reuters) - The chairman of Britain’s Financial Services Authority (FSA) said the regulator was closely monitoring Bradford & Bingley , the UK bank whose shares have slumped on concern about its business plan.
“We have taken a close interest in it,” FSA Chairman Callum McCarthy told Reuters on the sidelines of a business conference in this southern French city.
301 As I said earlier today the Labour canvassers catchword would be “vote for Nobody” because nobody is the Labour candidate. As someone else said, remember the damage the Literal Democrat candidate did in Winchester a few elections ago. I would split my sides if Frances Curran’s total votes is larger than Cllr Mason’s majority over Margaret Curran
srh was there much evidence of the other parties out campaigning today? I would be surprised if many Tories campaign on a Sunday but any sign of the LibDems yet?
304 - saw a few Labour canvassers but far fewer than the SNP ones. Spent a day in Glasgow East and getting people in was the problem today. I would say the Labour vote was not soft but mush. A few said they would not vote and doubt if many voted before. Sadly to me a lot of apathy abounds in this constituency. Did get a lot who voted Labour last time said their second choice would be SNP and were undecided and wavering to us. They do like the SNP candidate who sees to enjoy a personal vote in the area I was in. Sorry Dan but didn’t get one LD voter today.
305. Bad sign that for the LD’s! Cannot see them them carrying off *LD’s winning here!* signs?
The locals will probably nut them! Then attack them with them!
did you get any Tories?
306 - what the LD attacking them?
307 - a few in the Mount Vernon area
hooray! It’s a three-horse race
310 - I came across a diehard Communist in Shettleston at the start of the day who was going his mile about how awful the area was and how awful Labour were. I think he said he would abstain from voting for the declared candidates by writing ‘Communist’. When I said if he had considered the SSP, he replied that they were too right wing for him and Solidarity was being led by a Tory (TS). You meet all sorts at these by-elections.
Federer will be back - he’s gradually recovering form and consistency this year since the Aussie Open.
Nadal will be seen as “the successor”, but I think this misses something: he’s yet to prove himself on hard courts. On grass, there are very few in the field truly comfortable, which is why you get old guys like Bjorkman or Schuettler in semi finals (where they promptly get massacred). On hard courts 90% of the field is totally comfortable, and he’s not done well at the slams yet:
Nadal’s record at the Aussie Open: quarter final 2007 (whipped by Gonzales), semi final 2008 (whipped by Tsonga).
Nadal’s record at the US Open: quarter final 2006 (lost to Youzhny), 4th round 08 (lost to Ferrer).
There are other worrying results, like Nalbandian destroying him twice in the late 07 season hard court masters (6-1 6-2 in Paris, and 6-4 6-0 in Madrid). Youzhny also beat him 6-0 6-1 in Chennai earlier this year.
He’s got a lot to learn on hard court - at present, barely in the top10 on that surface imo. He really struggles with flat power hitters, cos he takes such a large swing at the ball on his forehand. Very difficult for him to adapt there too, it’s such a fundamental part of his style.
We’ll see soon anyway - the Canada masters is in a couple of weeks. He made the semis last year, not the most difficult of draws, but got beaten pretty comfortably by Djokovic in the semis (another who’s repeatedly proved his superiority over Nadal on hard). Oddly enough he did better by wining it in 2005, again thanks to a ridiculously easy draw - Federer wasn’t at the tournament, Djokovic hadn’t emerged yet, and he had a geriatric Agassi in the final.
206. Yes Jimbo. I wrote an article on here recently and another Henry G was anxious that his professional reputation could be affected by the confusion. Apparently a number of people contacted him and congratulated him on ‘his article’. He works closely with MPs and I think it put the wind up him in case I subsequently wrote about hanging the royals with their own innards or made the case for how Austin Mitchell should be the next chancellor.
312. Yep I agree with that.
312 - agreed. Great final, before today I think the best ever game I’ve watched was the Safin Federer semi in the Aussie open 2005, when I was out in Australia / NZ for 6 weeks.
Also a great drive from Lewis today, have been critical of a lot of his performances from China last year onwards, but no qualms today, that was awesome - just keep concentrating on the driving and the championship will be Lewis’ - particularly as the McLaren seems to have made a big stride forward in testing since France a fortnight ago. Looking forward to Hockenheim.
Has anyone got a link to a map of the Glasgow east constituency? nomisweb are still on the old Baillieston / Maryhill / Kelvin / Pollok Glasgow constituencies! How much of the old Baillieston constituency is included in G East?
315 - and how much of G East is in the old Shettleston?
315 - you will find a map here
http://www.bcomm-scotland.gov.uk/
goodnight
http://www.election-maps.co.uk/electmaps.jsf
Thanks Marcia / Double Carpet.
Out all day weather rubbish but company great .
Re the Osbourne fuel tax proposal , you can imagine him introducing it and coinciding with a fall in the price of oil , lorries blockade motorways and the centre of London protesting that the government are not passing on the benefits of the price fall but keeping it to themselves .
Of course, Marcia, the “Communist” might well have been winding you up! Sometimes, to keep myself amused when I fought Llanelli I would imagine that I was able to “squeeze the Communist vote” (such as it was, or claimed to be). However, when I came back to reality I concluded that there were only one or two who actually would vote that way, given a suitable candidate!!
I am afraid in almost true blue East Devon, we don’t have the luxury of a Communist vote to squeeze.
Re Glasgow East
A few posters have commented that they think that there will be a very low turnout, and that the winner may only have 7,000 votes or so.
Looking at the 2005 result, the turnout then was under 50%, and the SNP got 5,200 votes. Now I am sure there will be some swing to the SNP, but they would have to get all of their voters from last time to turn out and get relatively a lot of switchers. Labour on the other hand got over 18,000 votes last time (again on a low turnout) and if half of them don’t bother this time, it still leaves enough for Labour to win.
I don’t think the SNP can win this on the back of Labour voters staying at home, they need an issue to get lots of Labour voters to switch. And despite Morus’s arguemnts I don’t see religion being it.
Disorganised as the Labour campaign may be I still don’t see how they lose this and am taking the 5/6.
Betfair US Open prices:
Federer 2.42
Nadal 3.9
Djokovic 4.0
Murray 38
Consistent with many of above comments.
Re 320
I can’t see there being many falls in the price of oil. As I understand it, the idea is that as the price of oil goes up the fuel duty goes down to compensate for it. Fuel duty is 50.35p for the most part. The price of petrol, excluding VAT has increased by about 20p over the past year. If such a scheme were to be introduced now and prices continue to escalate at the same rate then it wouldn’t take long for the fuel duty to cease all together. What happens then and where will the revenue come from to replace the lost duty?
I have just been looking as possible LD targets in the next election, if we are to believe that the LD will be chasing Labour MP’s.
I wonder if this is one of the potential targets:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burnley_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29
So the Tories know how to endear themselves to the electorate:
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/07/the-real-rab-c.html
A poll showing a majority of 5500 for Labour is GOOD news for them, rather than bad news, isn’t it? Pretty comfortable for a by-election.
No, because it’s 3 weeks before the election and will therefore easily be overturned.
Various posts above suggest people are blowing the whole Boris-Lewis fandango a little out of proportion. It makes BJ look fairly silly, but it’ll have blown over within a few days. The bloke is gone now. I don’t think Ken Livingstone is doing himself any favours by cropping up to comment on every single little thing that Boris and his administration does or doesn’t do, btw. People will see it as pure sour grapes.
On the fuel duty issue, there is a consultation on the Conservative Party website.
Having glanced at it, I can’t see the exact details of how it would work, just broad principles.
http://www.conservatives.com/getfile.cfm?file=document-fairfuelstabiliserconsultation-2008&ref=GENERALFILE/3585&type=pdf
Of course, now if the government decide not to raise the duty as planned in the Autumn, then they are at the least, operating a weak type of fuel price / duty stabilisation policy. Perhaps in anticipation of that, the Tories are getting ready to claim another copycat policy.
What’s more, the inevitable treasury claims of leaving a black hole in the finances have lost a lot of their bite following the 10p tax bail-out, and will, I expect, come from a low level, until the government decides what it will do in the Autumn Statement.
I see this Glasgow By-Election is giving several people cause to trot out dull and witless stereotypes about Glaswegians. Yawn.
There’s nothing more dull and witless than Glaswegian trots, pal.
321 - he very seriou, believing in a workes state, that there has never been a truly workers state. An enjoyable few minutes discussion. The people in this seat were very friendly even if they said they had no interest in voting.
any truth that Malcolm Powers -the hero of Henley-was offered the Glasgow seat as a reward for his work during the last by election…?