Does Dustin’s exit make a “No” vote more likely?
May 26th, 2008
Wikipedia Commons
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Ireland votes on the Lisbon Treaty in 17 days’ time
The annual Eurovision extravanganza has just ended, and although Terry Wogan may be calling it a day due to the increasingly “political” nature of the voting, this provides plenty of trading opportunities for punters.
Another possible political aspect of Eurovision that has been mooted is that of the Irish entry Dustin the Turkey, who enjoyed the accolade of being the event’s first non-human entry, but only made it as far as the semi-final of the competition. Might the failure of the popular TV puppet slightly dampen enthusiasm for Europe as the Lisbon Treaty referendum approaches?
A poll this weekend by Red C for the Sunday Business Post shows Yes 41, No 33, with a substantial (but falling) 26% undecided - Yes is up three and No up five since the previous poll. It’s thought that turnout on polling day will be crucial if the government wants to secure the passing of the treaty.
The polls have also confirmed a bounce for Fianna Fáil since “Biffo” took over from Bertie - with FF now enjoying a large 16-point lead over Fine Gael following the leadership change from Ahern to Cowen. Will Cowen’s honeymoon be longer-lasting than Brown’s? He may be helped by the fact that Irish parliaments are much more likely to run the full five years, and thus avoid having to consider a snap election.
On the markets, Paddy Power offer Yes at 2-7 and No at 9-4. There is also a Betfair market, but volumes are thin and prices are currently not as good as the PP quotes. My gut feel is that it will be a narrow win for the Yes camp with about 53% of the vote - what do the Irish experts on PB think?
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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The Irish will indeed vote Yes. They know they might as well, because even if they vote No, Europe will just keep coming back and demanding a Yes vote until the people get it “right”.
And that’s if they’re lucky. If they are unlucky they won’t even get a second chance to get the decision “right” - the government will do what France and Holland did - simply ignore any unpleasant referendum results, and decide that No actually means Yes.
So come on Ireland, save time and money, and vote Yes, because you don’t have any choice anyway.
Didnt the Irish vote the wrong way on Nice only to get asked again. Referendums on EU are pointless as the French and Dutch know only too well
Ireland will vote yes..though Dustin, the rogue builder, dodgy backhand loving leader of the Poultry Party (Fianna Fowl), and singer of many great songs such his Springsteen cover retitled as ‘Born in Little Bray’ (had a first cousin who was on the dole, got a job with the council, diggin a hole… cos he was, Bornnnnnn in Little Bray….) is a bit of a hero to many, including me.
He’s also detested by many in Ireland as well by the way.
Anyway, from last thread:
Question. Even in the middle of the row over the 10p tax issue how many really expected a bit of a revolt over car tax?
I certainly didnt and I think it reflects how serious things are for Brown.
Look at it this way. The more there is such trouble, the more there are whispers, the more difficult his position becomes and, most likely, the worse Brown’s ratings with the public will get. This could set off more whispers, more people stirring it up, more rebellions…which in turn will impact on Brown’s public standing.
Brown’s team need to stop this rot or else it could easily be terminal due to the spiral effect its creating.
Obama can win without the white working class (providing he comes within 10 points):
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/26/us/politics/p26caucus.html?_r=2&ref=todayspaper&oref=slogin&oref=slogin
Yokel, is Yes pretty much a dead cert and thus value at 2-7? Cheers.
5 - Shh, don’t tell them - knowledge is power….
4 I was in India when the Budget & post Budget Polls came out but IIRC it seemed to be the Car Tax that was one of the main issues I read about on my return. I think after the 10p Tax farrago Labour MPs are very sensitised to any tax issue that will come back and bite them. Darling has a hard job in the PBR this year - he has to find the cash to cover the losers in 10p, any fuel tax will be unpopular (even if oil prices drop before then) and the last thing the party needs before next years Euro/Council elections is an unpopular budget.
5
Link for those without NYT subscription:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/05/25/the-white-working-class-forgotten-voters-no-more/
CAPTION COMPETITION :
1. True identity of Jack W revealed.
2. Spanish immigration issue “Most Wanted” photo of PB escapee !!
3. One of “Clegg 30″ reveals all !!
4. A few days as Guest Editor of PB takes it toll.
5. Hillary Clinton sacks make-up artist !!
6. Guardian “Page 3 Girl” unlikely to be a roaring success.
10. Chelski unveil new manager.
6. I’d never back at those odds cold and in this case they are too stingy and over estimate the odds on a yes though not by tons. There is very dedicated opposition there but I suspect a certain amount of steam went out of the issue as a whole after the last referenda.
It would take a turnout inbalance, I think, to deny a yes vote or some controversy we didnt expect and can’t currently see.
If I was to take a stab the don’t knows are probably not going to tilt heavily for a no. I think the no’s may have greater motivation to begin with so for that many current don’t knows to make up their minds against the treaty to tilt the balance looks a bit of stretch.
10. You’re a handsome devil, Jack.
Thanks Yokel - and the fact that Bertie has stepped down means one less reason for some people to vote No?
14. Thats been mentioned certainly as helping the yes cause but it would have put the likes of Fine Gael in a difficult position as wanting a yes vote but fancying a protest.
i cannot see how next years budget can be anything but horrific, if things go really well economically, they might be able to squeese through without a snowballing PBR, but the £600 rise in personal allowance is not accounted for in the future budget projections, and the increases in road duty is going to hit a lot of people very very hard, and i suspect many of them wont be expecting it.
Of course, the scorched earth policy is possible, and just balance your figures by stealing from Camerons first three budgets.
13 Test. Indeed … Mrs Jack W is a very lucky lady … as I keep telling her !!
2. A no vote would be a massive tactical weapon for Cameron though, it would mean that the Lisbon treaty could be unpicked by an incoming Tory Government.
18 The problem with the EU as correctly pointed out - the treaty is already in effect so the Irish might as well vote ‘Yes’ When we do get the opportunity to vote, who says it will be a vote on the treaty? More likely a question on continued membership of the EU which will produce a different result. Anyway immigrant voters will be used to shore up the ‘Yes’ vote so it doesn’t make a jot of difference.
I hate the EU.
(just thought I’d come on board to say that)
20
Casino, Do you have any betting tips for the weeks to come?
21. Very sweet of you to ask Philippe, but I’m not so hot on the betting tips here!!
I know nothing the other guys don’t!!
I think Gordon Brown will stay and the Nationals will win in New Zealand this Autumn if that’s any help?
Other than that, I’m not aware of anything
20, as do I.
I hope they vote No because, as Gaz says, it will not only delay the treaty until they rewrite it again, it’ll give the Tories the chance to promise a referendum.
Sadly I suspect they’ll vote Yes, but it’s not a certainty.
“Scottish Tories aim to return between four and 10 MPs at the next Westminster election campaign, according to deputy leader Murdo Fraser.”
http://tinyurl.com/6ym9jv
So, now the SNP have set a target of 20+ seats; and the Tories have set a target of 4+ seats. What target will the Scottish Lib Dems and Scottish Labour be publicising?
Answer: they’ll just be delighted to hang on to more than 50% of what they’ve got
10 Jack W
Only you, Jack, only you could cheer me so much on an arthritic day like today.
By the way, have we stopped talking about Barack Obama and H Rodham Clinton because the readers of pb have finally recognised the dead parrotness of Clinton and the inevitability of Senator Obama?
Malcolm
24, Scottish Labour’s unique method of gaining electoral appeal has been well-documented, what’s the Lib Dem problem north of the border?
Said this before, and I’ll say it again.
Renegotiating EU membership will just cause too much sh*t and heat for Cameron when he takes over at No.10 - so he simply won’t do it.
He’ll maybe scrap the social chapter and pass a “no more” integration clause - but that’s it.
Renegotiating EU membership would f**k off most of Europe and dominate an entire parliamentary term and I doubt Cameron cares that much to do it. I also think he won’t want to once he makes “friends” with his fellow foreign leaders.
So, we will be stuck with it.
Unless… he has some real cojones I’m not aware of.
20,23 - I don’t hate the EU I think that the concept that nations should collaberate where possible is good. The problem is that the EU has become process driven rather than outcome driven and that is very bad news. The EU’s instinct when a problem arises is not to solve the said problem in a practical way but to design complex multi-lateral architecture to ensure that in future said issue cannot arise. It solves neither the problem at hand nor the arising of future issues. Personally I believe that Europe would probably function a lot better on an ad-hoc basis rather than the overbearing ossified formalism that we endure today.
Irish Parliaments last longer than UK Parliaments. Perhaps something to do with STV, which represents the wishes of the electorate better??
26. Morris Dancer
- 8 years of coalition government with Labour: 1999-2007
- poor leader in Nicol Stephen
- no clear USP to offer the electorate
- almost invisible in the media, as the SNP, Labour and Tories tottally dominate the newspapers/airwaves
- by far the fewest members of the main 4 parties, strongly concentrated in their pockets of strength, ie. they are totally absent in vast swathes of the country
- Kennedy kicked out; Campbell humiliated
- who is their GB leader again?
- etc, etc, etc
26.Being in power with Labour for too long.
Developments in the ‘assassination story’ in the States. A Fox News pundit appears to have said it would be a good thing if Obama were killed. And then laughed about it. And the anchor didn’t even call her up on it.
This happened after she (commentator Liz Trotta) got confused between Obama and Osama:
“and now we have what … uh…some are reading as a suggestion that somebody knock off Osama …uh..um..Obama [after being prompted by the FNC anchor]….well both if we could [laughing]”
Hat tip: Daily Kos (full story and video is here: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/5/25/15389/8576/115/522617)
24 - Stuart Nick Clegg said he hoped to have 24 Scottish MP’s in two elections time.
Not so sure myself!
“I don’t hate the EU I think that the concept that nations should collaberate where possible is good. ”
James - you make the mistake that the EU *IS* a forum for nations to collaborate where they agree.
It isn’t.
It’s a huge, undemocratic, arrogant juggernaut that’s become bigger than nation states and, in many ways, unanswerable to them. Particularly their voters.
I’m no xenophobe, and certainly not hostile to collaborating with our neighbours, I just hate the EU. Don’t draw the wrong conclusions from this statement.
Capiche?
32
Shame on ‘em!
30 + 31, cheers:)
33, doubling the number of MPs is his target for every part of the country, I think. Completely arbitrary, and I doubt he has a strategy (other than try to oppose both Labour and Tory at the same time).
People wanting to kick out Labour will go for Tory by default, unless Clegg positions Lib Dems as firmly anti-Labour.
34 The EU juggernaut is too big …. we will sucked in whether we like it or not.
33 - “he hoped to have 24 Scottish MP’s”
In what sense does Clegg hope to “have” them?
33. Max
Oh yeah, I had forgotton about that peach! I have only one thing to say to that: Ho Ho Ho.
Anyway, I very much doubt that Scotland will be sending any representatives to the Westminster parliament come 2014/2015.
27. He won’t have any choice, Casino.
You presume the EU is gonna stop integrating once Lisbon is signed?! The EU exists solely TO integrate, it has no reverse gear, indeed it doesn’t even know how to pause, like a unicycle that falls over when it stops.
As soon as the Treaty is ratified, Brussels will start on the next round of integration - direct EU taxes, an EU army, EU criminal justice, etc etc. All these are in the pipeline right now - they’re just being held back so as not to “upset the Irish”.
By the time Cammo is in power these proposals will be seriously underway. That’s when the final and inevitable trainwreck will happen - Tory government in the UK versus integrationists in Brussels.
Cameron might not want such a clash. He may not have the cojones to handle it. But it will happen anyway.
39 Lets drink to independence!!!
37. Democracy was born in Europe in Athens 500 years before the birth of Christ. Its last resting place will be Dublin.
34 Casino
Tony Benn and I both voted against joining; glad to have you along with us for the reasons you give, the same objections that we had way back when.
The EU is just one huge unelected capitalist club.
Malcolm
44. It shares many more traits of a socialist club, then capitalist.
40 - and the UK will be marched into the Euro once Lisbon is secure. Hatred of Gordon Brown will reach fever pitch.
45, that can’t happen.
People generally are eurosceptic. Ceding control of monetary policy to Fritz in Frankfurt won’t be acceptable.
What has happened to political betting tonight? Has someone slipped LSD in the URL?
@44:
The important thing is that it is unelected and unrepresentative. Be you a socialist or a capitalist, the EU doesn’t represent you. It only represents itself.
40/44. Why don’t eurosceptic labour MPs make a move on the leadership and stop Brown integrating Britain into the EU? By the time Cameron’s elected it will be too late, and he might well not have the stomach for a confrontation. It’s always been Labour that fought hardest for British independence. In 1940 the Conservatives wanted to negotiate with Mussolini/Hitler - apart from Churchill. He needed the support of Labour MPs to continue fighting.
34
“It’s a huge, undemocratic, arrogant juggernaut that’s become bigger than nation states and, in many ways, unanswerable to them. Particularly their voters.”
Matthew Sinclair’s response to Nick Cohen’s article this weekend
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/centreright/2008/05/the-class-card.html
Introduced me to the term ‘tranzi’
http://sinclairsmusings.blogspot.com/2007/02/tranzis-eu-and-more-history.html
“One of the most important ideas in conservatism today is the identification of transnational progressives as the new challenge to liberal democracy’s preeminence as a universal philosophy; the next stage of history which refutes Fukuyama’s prediction that there might be no new universal challenge. It’s an idea which has been gaining speed for some time but is now becoming increasingly important as an identification of the internal threat to the Western community. It is the key socialist response to the failure of Communism and the challenge globalisation poses to European Social Democracy.”
I dont think either price offers particular value right now. ‘Yes’ should win but we were in a similar position before NICE 1 which ended up being defeated. I expect more undecideds to break ‘no’ than ‘yes’ so the ‘yes’ odds might be particularly bad value come polling day. Turnout will be key though, both overall and differential turnout between Dublin and the rest of the country (Dublin oftens votes in a different direction to the rest of the country in referendums).
Completely unrelated to betting I have found the Irish Lisbon campaign to be the most dreadfully boring and appallingly argued campaign ever. A clearer argument against holding referendums on minor treaties there could never be (the government could probably get away without having one legally if there wouldnt have been such a political fallout from not putting it to the people).
47 - it’s been like that all day.
Roll on Henley!
42 - Talk about melodrama
37. That’s defeatist talk.
40. SeanT - I’m just expressing my cynicism that he’ll do something substantial about it.
I hope I’m wrong. I really do.
43. If it was socialist, would you be up for it?
I don’t see that Britain is likely to join the Euro anytime soon.
If you remember at the time, the euro enthusiasts were cock a hoop about all the supposed benefits it would bring, not to mention all the millions of jobs at risk if we didn’t join. I think now most people would accept any benefits are likely marginal and it’s unlikely the traditionalists will want to cede soverignity.
52 - it was quite sensible this morning, but when the discussion turns on whether the EU is a capitalist club or a socialist superstate that is going to impose the Euro, it’s not so much political betting as political fantasy/nightmare.
46/53. Oh yes it can. These events are dramatic, except that few watching right now are much interested. Freedom once lost will take a lot of regaining.
55. If Brown falls, Milliband is highest in the betting to replace him. Milliband is a eurofanatic who would press for the euro.
47 Its the ” morning after” - all the recent elections, polls, rumours its a wet Bank Holiday Monday and in the background is the threat of Two More Years. If you thought we had enough waiting for Hilary to recognise its all over, wait until this time next year and wondering whether Gordon has got the message yet….
6/12. Double Carpet/Yokel. I don’t know enough to give an informed opinion. But I would be very surprised if Ireland voted No. So I am tempted at 2/7. I know PfP has had a bet at 1/3. I would be interested in others’ views, especially Mike’s?
@50
“Tranzi”, I like it.
A conveniently unpleasant label for people who respond badly to being more accurately labelled ‘traitors’.
60 - we voted no to Nice the first time…
58, the euro would be a glass jaw and Cameron would shatter it.
Plus it would make the Lib Dems look even more Labourish.
59 - I don’t think we’ll be waiting that long for Gordon Brown to get the message. I think he’s going to be delivered that message very personally in the next few weeks at the latest.
62. Thanks Neil. I hadn’t seen your post at 51 and as I say I am not well informed on this one. I won’t be betting unless someone makes a persuausive case.
63. The Euro can be imposed on Britain under QMV after Lisbon. LIb Dems, Conservatives or whoever make little difference now.
62. Tougher reach this time though. no?
I would contend that GB only had power whilst he was at No 11 - he could thwart anyone there incl TB by holding on to the money , As PM his power depends on him being a vote winner which he is not but no one dared point this out to him whilst he was Chancellor - now he is exposed as a loser his power sips away and is more rapidly eroded by all the enemies he made whilst in number 11 and climbing up the very greasy pole inside the labour party .
54 Casino
“If it was socialist, would you be up for it?”
Je ne comprend pas.
Malcolm
62 and all the work that went into the Nice Treaty on how countries votes count in qualified majority voting has undone anyway by the Lisbon Treaty which brought back in what was first proposed.
Strange - we had to have the Amsterdam Treaty to be fit for enlargement, but apparently it wasn’t enough so then we had Nice Treaty specifically to deal with enlargement and enable the EU to function effectively when the new members joined. But….then we had to have the Lisbon Treaty to deal with the consequences of enlargement and enable the EU to function effectively…..
Relax, Tapestry! David Cameron has no intention of allowing us to go into the Euro. I don’t know where all this wild talk is coming from today. Lisbon will not stand under a Tory govt. Relax.
66, merde.
If that happened we should leave. Foreigners dictating our monetary policy is unacceptable.
67 - for sure yes, and less suprise element too
63 - no it can’t. Don’t be ridiculous.
71. If the Government has ratified the treaty by the time the conservatives get in, there is nothing we can do, we cannot unpick the locks.
Gordon Brown’s collected speeches reviewed
http://www.socialaffairsunit.org.uk/blog/archives/001788.php
(Found via order-order.com)
66 not 63
77, I was about to say, how anyone could call a morris dancer ridiculous is beyond me.
Hey nonny nonny!
70. The Irish vote against Nice was due to fear of the common European defence policy overriding Irish neutrality. Ireland was given an opt-out on defence, and a few softeners, and Nice sailed through the second time with the economy booming.
This time the EU is being very careful to make sure the Irish have no idea as to what’s in the Treaty, and only 5% of Irish believe they understand what it’s about. The farmers are up in arms as they see the EU WTO negotiations selling them out, and under Lisbon Ireland will lose lose their WTO veto, although some Irish MInisters are denying this!
The other issue being rasied by the NO campaigners is that once Lisbon is signed, the Irish corporation tax rate of 12.5% which brings in much FDI and jobs will come under pressure from EU tax harmonisation policies. The NO vote still has a chance but Ireland is unlikely to shake herself free even if they vote NO.
61. I really dislike this increased use of the “traitor” phrase. It brings back memories of jingoism and thus undermines the eurosceptic cause. It also makes the fatal flaw of assuming that those that favour the EU are deliberately trying to hurt Britain, which is untrue. These people aren’t malicious, they’re just ideologically blinded to the problems with the EU. We need to understand our opponents to defeat them.
71. It is a commonly held view amongst left-wingers that the Tories will save them from the EU. Sadly thanks to Blair/Brown, there is now little chance of that happening. Whatever course the EU goes on, Britain is locked in, and the key has been thrown away. Cameron would need a majority of 400 to take on Brussels.
I wasn’t all that left wing, last time I looked.
It’s all going to be OK. That’s my belief. Vote Tory and keep your chin up. You can trust David Cameron (not to withdraw from the EU, but he won’t keep things this way).
10.
” Guardian “Page 3 Girl” unlikely to be a roaring success.”
But she’s top hole at gobblin’!
Does Amanda Platelets hold the copyright to that picture?
I see Tony McNulty has adopted Gordon’s approach to statistics:
“”Nine, six months ago Gordon Brown could do no wrong - he was 20 points ahead, Cameron was floundering because of the grammar school issue and everything else.”
20 points ahead? Labour haven’t been 20 points ahead since a Mori poll in early 2002. As I pointed out a day or so ago Gordon had double digit leads in a couple of polls then in the Labour Conference week.
I do hope the rest of the Cabinet have the same grasp of reality.
84, somewhat worrying that so many ministers have either serious short-term memory problems or the inability to count, or both.
Oh, and a caption competition entry:
Hazel Blears makeover considered remarkable success.
DUSTIN WAS ROBBED!!!!
Now Dustin knows how Al Gore feels deep down.
85. History is what they say it is. It fits the narrative they want to portray, it helps to make it seem like the polls are in a massive state of flux, and that nothing has really changed, next week Brown could be ahead by 20 points etc.
The manipulation of historical events and trends to justify contemporary policy is of course exposed with chilling accuracy by George Orwell….
How the UK interacts with Europe during a Cameron government will depend quite heavily on the econmic situation at the time, I think. If the UK gets through the coming downturn reasonably well and avoids recession, then I think people will be happy with a moderatly eurosceptic regime.
If, on the other hand, we have a prolonged and severe recession we may see some quarters claiming that membership of the euro and closer european ties would protect us from such global volatility (particularly in the eurozone managed to avoid the wordt of the recession) Labour would make wildly obliging noise’s towards Europe, and in such a situation I’m not sure how the country would react to a eurosceptic Conservative government.
Incidentally, I do believe Cameron’s administration WILL be eurosceptic. I don’t but into this arguement at all, that just because he doesn’t go on about it, Cameron has suddenly converted to the european cause. I think his administration will be the most eurosceptic we’ve ever had. Much more so than Mrs Thatchers government.
90 Cameron’s not won yet, you know.
91. It does appear however that Brown has lost…
As I said last night, on balance, I would expect the treaty to pass by about 53%-47%.
People are not particularly enthusiastic about European integration, but the foaming-at-the-mouth, swivel-eyed loonery that seems to underlie a lot of “Euroscepticism” in the UK doesn’t exist here in any appreciable degree outside the ultra-Catholic fringe.
As far as the level of support for the treaty, the highest levels of support are likely to be in urban middle-class areas (constituencies like Dublin South-East, Dublin South, Dún Laoghaire, Wicklow, Cork South-Central), and the lowest levels are likely to be in peripheral rural constituencies (Donegal, Kerry) and one or two working-class urban constituencies (Dublin South-Central and South-West, Cork North-Central).
91. Its in the bag though.
Con gain everything!
94 Not yet
Though I tend to agree that Gordon has lost it.
82./90 The economy in the UK has run out of rope. We’re spent out, borrowed out and out of ideas. Inflation is running high mostly caused by Brown’s expansion of the state and loss of control of spending, which is not being rectified.
The Euro area has been lucky to have ten years of world growth to keep it going. The European recession is just beginning, but while the US has seen its currency fall, and has financial reserves and resources to deal with their troubles, Europeans are seeing their currency increase, and there are very few countries in a sound financial position. The stresses on the Euro will start to kick in as of now.
There is no virtuous economic picture to aid the collpasing political one.
Test is centre ground then.
BTW, Yokel, what does Dustin think of the new Tea Sock?
96. How can Labour recover from this situation? What is the route from which they can turn this around? Whatever they do, I can’t see beond them losing the next election. The only question is by what margin they lose.
99. Remember though, we are all governed by opinion polls, if Brown can scrape 35% in a handful of polls, the narrative will be of the ‘bounce back’.
10 - The Blairites show Gordon what will happen to him if he clings on.
Just back from Wembley - great day out watching the County get promoted. Hope LS enjoyed it - and comiserations David Roe when you read this.
I suspect the issue of increased car tax will be very damaging to the Government. It is the retrospective nature that will annoy people most as many average families who have bought a larger car say 4 years old now find that they will be paying significantly more car tax whilst its trade-in value has fallen.
The Government claims this is all about “environment measures”. But unless it introduces a scheme such as in other countries to purchase and destroy the older, so called more polluting vehicles then it can only be seen as a tax raising measure. This will affect, in particular, families who need larger cars to transport the kids around and who are not sufficiently well off the afford a newer model.
100. If Brown claws his way back to 35% I still don’t think that would make much differance in an election campaign. Brown Vs Cameron during a 3-4 week election campaign would be nothing less than a walkover, IMO.
Labour may well recover to some degree, but when the time comes that people have to choose are they really going to vote for Brown over Cameron? Its not going to happen.
101. tpfkar.Well done! Hope you had a great day.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/sun_says/article244723.ece
Click on the cartoon at the bottom. It amused me mildly!
98 I havent had a chance to see Dustin in action for a bit I have to say. Work has sadly meant that I dont get to see his regular late afternoon TV work these days.
103
Pray… please advise what senario might see Brown on 35%?
101 - Aye, Ta. The better team won. many congratulations.
But two playoff defeats in two days has really made me glad the bloody season’s over! But Dale are only a team I have affection for rather than my true love. Winning today would not have made up for yesterday anyway.
N1 tpfkar.
New Zealand cricket = Gordon Brown!
102 - Pretty much our take on it a the currant bun.
99 Its two years - lots can happen.
In Dec 1988, Gorbachev, at height of his power established the Congress of Deputies to democratise the USSR, less than a year later the Berlin Wall was breached, less than two years later Germany was united.
Aaronovitch in the Times is very disenchanted with Gordon.
“…..it would probably be better for Gordon Brown to continue and, in the knowledge of his likely electoral defeat, to begin to lead. In so doing he may actually render a greater service to the party he says he loves than his predecessor eventually managed to do. He may just as well not eff off.”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article4009758.ece
107. The polls can be strange, it only takes a few good polls for the whole atmosphere to change.
It could be a big event like a terrorist incident, or even the economy recovering.
The Government has received an awful drubbing for the last five months, while Cameron has had very little real scrutiny. The whole thing with Conway could have been a major disaster, it wasnt, but events like that can have strange influences.
101. I certainly did, thank you
A belter of a game - far better entertainment than either of the “greater” play-off finals - and a wonderful advertisement for what was our division
111
They say a week is a long time in politics, but to my mind the Tory machine is now well oiled. All DC has to do is sit and wait and hear the lack of sound that is the vacuousness of the New Labour vision. People are sick to death of stealth taxes, sick to death of the dissembling, sick of announcements and re-announcements of the same money, often achieving nothing, and just want a change.
112,107 - Ipsos-Mori (or ICM) might produce a surprise like they did in January & February - remember YouGov 8% lead for Cons and Mori’s 1% lead for Labour on the same day. Or in April ICM turning out a 34% vote share for Labour and only a 5% lead for the Tories just before YouGov turned up a 16% lead (which many claimed must be a rogue).
113 - I thought both teams looked a bit nervous in the first half. Two goals but that was pretty much from the only two meaningful attacks. In fact, considering there were five goals there were not many chances carved out.
115
Bearing in mind Smithsons rule about not believing polls that dont support your point of view, I am inclined to dismiss anything but You Gov who have been consistently on or very close to the money. Even Jack’s ARSE seems pretty reliable………..
Jack are you still awake. What’s the ARSE saying about the next polls?
117
The more scary article in the Times is on economic prospects. If it is anything like true then Gordon’s certain political extinction is least of our worries.
“When the crisis hit last summer the US Government’s deficit was a little more than 1 per cent of gross domestic product …. The UK deficit at this cyclical peak is closer to 3 per cent. A serious downturn in the British economy risks a ballooning of that deficit - with potentially dire consequences for the pound and domestic financial markets. This month’s desperate U-turn on the lower income tax rate was not a positive step in that regard.
It is hard to resist a rather obvious conclusion. Every Labour government since 1929 has been undone by one or more types of economic crisis - financial, fiscal, currency, inflation. The great achievement of new Labour is that it has avoided that fate. Until now.
Now, as if to make up for lost time, it looks like Britain is going to have all four of them together. Changing the leader isn’t going to change that.”
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/columnists/article4009709.ece
International Atomic Energy Agency :
Iran nuclear arms research “serious concern”
Via Drudge: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSLAW00006520080526?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=22&sp=true
Iran’s gonna be an important issue in the Presidential campaing between Obama and McCain.
118
It bears repetition. Ken Clarke, probably the most underrated Chancellor of modern times said “Labour Chancellors always run out of money”
CON
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EVERYTHING
116. There’s some truth to that, but a lot of that is attributable to some top-quality defending. We hit the side-netting twice and Rochdale did once as well, plus there was at least one fantastic save by Tommy Lee.
**NEW TAX ROW** **NEW TAX ROW** **NEW TAX ROW**
Look at tomorrows paper headlines..
All the media are now gunning for Brown over the Car Road Tax rise.
Another running sore to further eat away at Labours (rapidly diminishing) support.
This ain’t going to go away.
123. Could we have a second mini budget?????
123
I was reminded of the Labour funding scandal that was kicked into the long grass. When will the report be out?
It’s all deadly. Labour are f**ked.
Btw, anyone a fan of Terminator 2?!
This YouTube homemade movie spoof is hilarious!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mTCgIHpQXE
126
Of the 57 or so reviews Gordon has announced, how many have reported./.. I cannot remember even one reporting
When getting a poll next. Seems ages since we had one.
I have been a little preoccupied with other things today so I have not read all the threads and do not know if anyone else has noted the second string of the class war being unveiled.
Blunkett was the messenger demanding a review of boarding school allowances for the military, overseas posted aid personnel and those manning the UK missions abroad.
These are paid to staff posted overseas and moved regularly. The allowance ensures children of such parents get a UK and relatively stable education for their kids.
But someone had been ready and waiting and had briefed Sky that they allow kids to go to Eton or Marlborough with only a £1,000 contribution from the parents and really more state boarding schools should be built and all the kids sent there. They’d be lucky.
It all seemed far too ready made and ignored the point that New Labour have lived by since the beginning, that to succeed they must work with the market. Without security of education the military will lose lots of key staff and lots of FCO and DFID staff will refuse to be posted overseas as it is a key issue for them.
If there is a third string to this Toffs, privilege, private schooling line then I will be fairly sure what is Gordon Brown’s big idea to recover the voters: the old fashioned socialist politics of envy and leveling down.
Interestingly, Miiliband is reported to be ready to save the party from the left wing nutters. So the risk of giving in to the old guard is clearly understood.
If this is the plan it will split the party, turn off the electorate and the Labour party will doomed to relive the 1980’s all over again.
Keep an eye out for the third string.
I don’t know what sort of track record “Red C” has as a pollster - frankly I’ve never heard of them - had it instead been “Rod C” then, of course, we would be able to treat the results as being the absolute gospel truth!
If I might be permitted to second guess, for stjohn’s benefit in #60 above, what Mike’s view’s might be, I expect these would be very similar to the situation in the recent London Mayoralty election earlier this month where, with 3 weeks to go, Boris’ lead over Ken was very similar to the latest polling figures in the Irish referendum. Mike stressed then that he simply couldn’t see the gap being closed over such a narrow time frame and so it proved, thereby funding holiday after holiday for our host.
The difference here is that a whopping 26% are apparently undecided. However, on the other hand, this is a more straightforward two horse race with no LibDem or fringe candidates as it were to distort matters.
In my own mind, I’m very confident of a “Yes” result, but am I absolutely sure? No, Oi’m not, to be sure, to be sure.
Sorry, Oi’ll be getting me coat.
128. Maybe Yougov has been served with a D-Notice……
123. I hope this one gathers momentum. Frank Field with have one of his turns and come a week on Wednesday we will all be getting a Bentley delivered to out front doors courtesy of Broon.
120 - As do Conservative ones. The budget deficit reached a peak of 7% in 93/4, which meant tax rises and a squeeze on spending. The current situation is not great, but the idea that the Conservatives were a paragon of fiscal virtue is fantasy.
133 yes but by 97 Gordon inherited a bucketful of money that he proceeded to squander. Incoming Tory Govts always have to put right the excesses of Labour Govts. In this case its 11 yrs worth and the National debt I believe is over 600 bn as opposed to the 300bn Labour inherited. It costs about 20 billion just to service the increased debt and 36bn to service it all. (figs my estimations and are not accurate)
133. Remember, though, percentages can be manipulated, the sheer scale of the increase in public spending over the last five years means you have to screw up to a much higher degree to get the same percent debt. Yes, that was when things where bad, we were just coming out of an unpleasant recession. At the moment, we have the high level of debt *without* the impact of the slump.
What happens if we have a serious slump? That £40 billion is going to balloon to £100 billion very very quickly.
128 woody
We’ve been rather lucky, haven’t we?
Malcolm
136
yes your posts have been most infrequent.
133 - In the late 80s, Lawson budgets were producing surpluses and reduced tax rates. Where have the surpluses been in the past few years that should have gone against the debt we’ll need to get through the next few years?
136. the D notice might be right
130 pfp
You mentioned Boris the fop. How have the lives of Londoners changed since he took office? Is he still popular? Has he put forward any interesting and exciting proposals? Do you still have bendy-buses or has he swept them from London’s roads? Has he re-introduced the sedan chair?
Being here in the US I hear very little about Boris the Londoner. Is it possible that he might be the new Giuliani?
Malcolm
130 Peter, I don’t know enough about it to bet. Neil and Paddy Matthews’ views above are interesting.
Here’s a link to a paper echoing that Nice 1 apparently looked like this at this stage, and that it’s all about turnout: http://www.independent.ie/national-news/yes-side-fears-large-swing-among-undecided-voters-1387014.html
133 Agreed, most governments fall due to economic failure or incompetence.
So at end of a major recession the deficit reached 7% (bottom of cycle). This time we have a deficit of 3% at top of cycle before a recession - not great.
140 It’s early days Malcolm, but no sign of any sedan chairs as yet in Oxford Street.
128. woody. I have a feeling that one of the next couple of polls is going to have an approval rating for Gordon Brown that will be make dire a land of lost content.
130. Peter. I agree with you it has the feel of a Smithson certainty but we have yet to hear from the man himself.
As to your post, if I didn’t know you hailed from Putney via Derby, I could have sworn I was in the land of James Joyce, William Butler Yeats and Oliver St.John Gogarty.
142. Recessions typically dump government revenues by about 8%. If we are 3% under at the peak, we will be 11% of GDP under at the bottom. Under our Maastricht Convergence Criteria, signed up to by J Major, we have agreed not to breach 3% in any one year!!
141 Sparky - we meet again on this topic!
I’m sure you are much more more of an expert on Irish politics and voting behaviour than am I. My betting position on the referendum is based wholly on what the polls are saying and the unlikely prospect, IMHO of the “No” voters closing the gap over the next three weeks.
143 Though Boris’s new flying cycles have added new interest on London’s streets
http://newsimg.bbc.co.uk/media/images/41882000/jpg/_41882494_bike-pa416.jpg
137 Hilda
How are things? Lovely to get a special message from you. Today is Memorial Day here in the US so we have been remembering those that have given their lives for GWB in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Has Pretty Boy Dave explained his Iraq vote yet? Voted the same way as the discredited Tony B Liar and dismal Brownstuff if my memory doesn’t evade me.
I was always against and was on the 2 million march in London; were you on the ball then or were you cheering on the slaughter with Pretty Boy Dave and his pals?
Best Wishes for Memorial Day
Malcolm
144 stjohn - would you be an expert in such matters then?
146 I’m no expert at all - I just think there’s too much uncertaintly and feel a bit risk-averse. As Neil say’s above, the Yes price could improve if the trend in the polls continues, but as you say, can the polls be trusted?
142 - Agreed the position isn’t good. Note I wasn’t claiming some great achievement by this government but highlighting that its record is not noticibly worse than previous ones. Also, we don’t yet know how severe the slowdown will be.
138 - The government produced big surpluses in the 1st term. Debt as a percentage of GDP is now lower than it was in 1997 if you exclude Northern Rock. This government does not have an amazing fiscal record but neither does it have an awful one either.
135 - No. The percentage is what matters. Debt is only a problem if it cannot be serviced. For a start there is the issue of inflation, but as our income (GDP) grows so does the level of debt we can comfortably service.
149. Peter. If you are referring to Irish literary matters, then the answer is no. But I am presently reading Joyce’s “Dubliners” for the first time and it’s simply wonderful.
Generally, I know a little about a lot but am an expert in nothing.
By the way, your suggestion that Chelsea’s next manager should be Martin O’Neill brought a tear to the eye of my soon to be 10 year old. Shame on you Peter from Putney! Shame on you!
151. Debt is also a problem if it gives someone else a leverage over you. I don’t know about the UK, but most US government debt is owned by the People’s Republic of China.
153 the debt is also worthless if the US wish it to be, a sovereign nation can default on its debt anytime it wishes (of course, the consequences are no one else will lend you any in future).
151
It is worse (as i understand it) in terms of taxation and spending. I seem to remember seeing that Labour had spent an extra 1 trillion pounds over the last 10/11 yrs. Do you feel a trillion pounds better of nationally. I certainly dont!
148
If you would like to rephrase that in less inflamatory language. I might even answer it.
Goodnight
152 stjohn - please re-assure your son that I really don’t expect to collect on O’Neill. He just seemed good value in a huge field and certainly looked cheap compared with the likes of Sparky Hughes, etc I did also admit on PB that my bet was also intended as a bit of a wind-up against your goodself!
The 2008-2009 season’s points spreads should be available soon - watch this space.
Red C do polls pretty regularly in the Republic of Ireland and I’m not aware of them being considered any worse than any other names that may be more familar.
155 - Spending as a percentage of GDP is higher than under Major but there were some years under Thatcher which were higher I think. However, this is a Labour government of course it will spend and tax more. In 1997 and 2001 the public wanted that because they were unhappy with public services. It is a completely different issue to that of debt.
151 - China doesn’t have any real leverage. Their holdings are so large that if they tried to sell them off the dollar would depreciate which would make their holdings depreciate. Also, if the Americans have to increase interest rates and go into a recession that will hurt Chinese exports. Chinese holdings of USD is probably a net positive in terms of tying them into the world economic system.
157 Thanks, Yokel.
156. Peter. Thanks for that. I will tell him that it was just a wind up. He’s young and I’m sure his broken heart will mend and the tears will eventually stop. I know you meant no harm.
160 What with your son and SallyC’s one it’s obvious that Gordon should ban football because of the emotional distress caused, especially in run up to examinations.
158. It’s the fact that depreciation would occur that IS the leverage. Remember this is what the US threatened Britain with over the Suez crisis, very successfully.
162 Actually, it’s a form of mutually assured destruction.
Front page of the FT tomorrow says that more than one in five subprime mortgages in the UK is in arrears. The economic problems are just beginning…
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/9a3c01d6-2b60-11dd-a7fc-000077b07658.html
161. Ted. As long as Gordon stays away from Villa Park then I will be less critical of him when his soon to be written political obituary is read.
Just for info, here’s the Irish ref poll detail on Red C’s site: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP25thMay08PollReport.pdf
Shahid Malik says we should accept that for some people carrying knives is part of their culture.
Lock the swines up! Don’t EVER accept this.
re 118 it is no achievement of new Labour it is a myth. All the Tories need to do from now on is to replay the endless Brown claims to have ended boom and bust.
166 Thanks, Sparky. Hopefully we’ll see at least one more poll before the real thing.
167 I think I’m with General Napier on that one.
Tapestry 145. It could be a lot worse as you have not taken account of increasing Welfare costs
151 After 15 years of economic growth, though, the government shouldn’t really be running a budget deficit at all. That would, in turn, give it greater leeway to borrow in hard times.
167. Sounds like the same idiocy that justifies free supply of guns in the US. We shouldn’t allow such a mindset to set in in the UK.
re 167 recently when planning for our regatta I frequently had to carry a penknife from home to the boat house. Should I have been locked up for this?
I’m no lawyer but I always thought that in English law you used to have to prove mens rea - no more it seems when you can be locked up for mere thought crimes these days.
Steve Richards: It’s the crisis of identity that needs to be addressed – not a change of leadership
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-its-the-crisis-of-identity-that-needs-to-be-addressed-ndash-not-a-change-of-leadership-834605.html
174 - So we should accept kids carrying knives around all the time and stabbing each other? If they didn’t have knives everywhere these arguments would end up in a scuffle. Now they end up in a stabbing.
Something is very wrong and saying that people organising regattas would be put out by a crackdown on knives suggests you are being Facetious.
129.”Blunkett was the messenger demanding a review of boarding school allowances for the military, overseas posted aid personnel and those manning the UK missions abroad.
These are paid to staff posted overseas and moved regularly. The allowance ensures children of such parents get a UK and relatively stable education for their kids.”
You are joking, they are even going to review the boarding school allowances of the military etc? State boarding schools, they are on another planet and its called the class war headline to save Brown and Labour’s collective butts.
They don’t have the money or the time to implement and run this, its an empty policy for a quick headline. And yet again, looking for what is perceived as an easy target to attack. Where was Blunkett and Co back on Friday after the coroners report into the safety of Nimrod? Nowhere!
123.CR, my other half heard a comment about this on Radio 4 today that summed up how unpopular this is going to be. It was noted by someone that the increase in this tax was going to hurt some of those on a low income even harder than the removal of the 10p band.
178
” It was noted by someone that the increase in this tax was going to hurt some of those on a low income even harder than the removal of the 10p band.”
I seem to recall a USA economist saying that poor people in the UK used public transport or cycled, rather than drove their own cars. So perhaps they won’t be hit by this, everyone else on the other hand, will, and they won’t be happy.
Jon Cruddas: We’re talking a language that’s failing to resonate
You have to hand it to Jon Cruddas, he is a class act, and head and shoulders above those Labour pygmies in the cabinet.
Right from the start of the deputy leadership contest he has impressed, and his whole relaxed media persona puts him in a different league from the other candidates.
I don’t agree with all his conclusions or solutions, but I like his style and especially that voice! By refusing the offer of a job from Gordon Brown, he has been able to position himself as an honest and friendly critic of his leader and the direction of the government. This is in stark contrast to others with ambitions to lead the Labour party who now find their hands are tied because they are in government, they are left to brief anonymously from the sidelines.
http://cma.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1210603.ece?token=207948578
If they do go for this then pretty much every MP that votes for it will face a swing against them. Add that to the tax rises and bills going up. Surely they won’t do it!
181.Link doesn’t work.
182-Yep, same here…
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1210374.ece
Sorry chaps, my internal preview was never likely to work as a link! I’ll be more careful next time. I like the fact that we got a picture of Mr Smugspeaker to illustrate it.
185-Thanks David!
185.Someone had a better idea on another blog, how about a taxpayer paid constituency home or London residence for the period of incumbency in the HoC with it getting passed onto their successor? We could put a government body in charge of maintaining and improving the accommodation just like they do with council and military accommodation, delicious irony beckons on that score!
The MP’s can still have a second home in either place paid for by themselves. It just means that the taxpayer only has to pay for it once with something to show for its investment, instead of forever seeing MP’s solely benefiting from an expanding property portfolio?
106 - Sorry that you’re Dunstan-deprived, Yokel. He’s truly a turkey among turkeys.
My theory is that Ireland nominated him to enure that some other luckless land would win Eurovision. Didn’t the darn think nearly bankrupt RTE when the Irish won it several times running?
Including Dana. Note that she & Dunstan both ran for President of Ireland, though in different elections.
Coincidence? Conspiracy? Or Kismet?
WHAT A DOUCHEBAG!
Bill Clinton says his wife is ahead in popular votes, and Democrats will lose in November without her.
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/video/politics/2008/05/26/sot.clinton.lose.without.cnn
189 - I oppose the Clinton candidacy and strategy.
But I think that Bill Clinton has ever right to make even wrong-headed arguments about a candidate he is actively backing. Especially when she’s his wife.
Prospect has a very good article on Jindal:
http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=vice_president_bobby_jindal
187. I’m sure there are spare an ‘apartment blocks’ that could be freed up in Brixton, Scrubs or the Ville that could suffice (Holloway for the gals - of course). They’ve already got a Government Body overseeing their maintenance and such an arrangement (given the current MP’s expenses regime) might perhaps subsidise the building of similar establishments around the country?
I hear the accomodation is great, no sharing - en suite, lots of entertainment, high quality meals and relatively close to the tube. What else could a politician expect (no legitimate drugs though - apologies to Jacqui Smith and Co)?
:o)
155 Hilda
Suicide by Iraq Veterans - is this inflamatory enough?
“Unfortunately for the government, somebody did “stumble” on it. Dr. Katz lied about the numbers before the House of Representatives Veterans’ Affairs Committee, grossly understating the number of such suicide attempts. He testified that the number for all of 2007 was 790. He also neglected the Army’s own “Suicide Event Report,” which disclosed that 2006 saw the highest rate of military suicides in 26 years!
CBS News did its own extensive research, finding that more than 6,250 American veterans took their own lives in 2005 alone. That comes to slightly more than 17 suicides every day.”
Bush, Blair, Brown and Cameron - blood daily on their hands.
Malcolm
If I was Tony Blair, I certainly wouldn’t be feeling the weight of American war vets topping themselves. The only reason I dislike people like Galloway is their overt sensationalism regarding Blair’s role in the war. Or Cameron for that matter.
187 - ChrisD I’ve heard of this idea before, and it seems quite brilliant. Even better, buy one great big block of flats in Pimlico for the lot of them, allocate strictly by need (So your constituency is where exactly, Brentford? Bottom of the list.) and pass them on to the next set of MPs when there’s an election.
Buy it and maintain it all in one go, shared security etc, and no need for these ridiculous expenses claims. If MPs aren’t happy with this, they’re welcome to get their own place in Westminster, but they can cover it themselves.
Great as long as you only have single people as MPs!
I see that Gordon Brown still has one person who wants him to stay PM:
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/david_aaronovitch/article4009758.ece
I’m not sure how much comfort he’ll draw from it though.
194 - it’s not beyond the wit of man to calculate statistically the differing needs of MP and sizes of MP’s families, and to build accommodation accordingly. Across a population of 650, that statistical evidence will be reasonably reliable.
192 - seeing as the war in Iraq would have happened, with or without the Commons vote, I don’t know what it’s got to do with the deaths of US servicemen. Whether the UK could have taken action earlier to stop it is a moot point, but the Commons vote was not a vote for or against the war, but a vote for or against British participation. Indeed, many who may otherwise have been against the war, voted in favour on the basis that a better outcome would result (other obviously than for UK servicemen who died) from a war with Iraq with Britain, than a war with Iraq without.
read Denis Mcshane in the telegraph today if you want laugh.
Morning all - new thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
194 - well at least Galloway has held a fairly consistent line. Unlike Cameron.