Will today be Gordon’s Eastbourne?
May 22nd, 2008
Could an appalling result start a chain reaction?
On October 18th 1990 a by-election took place in the Sussex seaside resort of Eastbourne to fill the vacancy caused by the the death of Ian Gow, the previous MP and close friend of Margaret Thatcher who had been murdered by the Provisional IRA. The result, as seen above, was a massive swing to the Liberal Democrats.
The result, reproduced from Wikipedia above, particularly in view of the circumstances of the by-election, set off a chain of events throughout the Conservative party and little more than a month later Margaret Thatcher’s reign was over.
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Could the same happen after Crewe and Nantwich? Could an appalling outcome cause a similar reaction within the Labour party and lead to more pressure on its leadership?
Everything, of course, depends on the scale of the defeat - if that indeed is what happens today and here the polls might be helping Gordon. For if Labour does better than what ICM and ComRes are suggesting then it could be seen as almost a victory. Whatever, the polling numbers have raised the bar for David Cameron.
There is consolation for Gordon in the nature of the Labour movement which is nothing like as ruthless as the Conservative party. For Gordon was given the leadership last year on a plate even though eighteen months of polling numbers suggested that he would make Labour less electable - not more.
We should know the result in the early hours of tomorrow morning.
Mike Smithson
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I do wonder what effect all the ‘Tories on for a massive win’ publicity will have on the result. Rather unpredictable, especially in regard turnout.
How counterproductive has all the mass campaigning been?
BF Leaders Market:
Just four extant options of which two are marginal to say the least.I hav assigned aa combined 4% to the chances of Cameron departing.I know this figure looks high but it reflects the business I have done in the market.
Now for the business !
The market puts Brown/Cameron at 50% and sinking and Cameron Only at 46% and rising.
It is such a shame that there is so little liquidity.They have bet me 1-3 Brown /Cameron against the three ’sensible’ options but not for enough to get excited.
Given your stated preference,Mike, I expect Cameron Only to b e favourite this time tomorrow.
Good luck to the teams of workers in Crewe. Any updates on polling levels across the constituency would be most welcome!
I suspect the next 48 hours on here could be busting the records….
O/T
“Consider an election next year. Voters hate fag-end governments which put off what they fear, so why not deny the Tories such assistance with a contest in summer 2009?”
Iain Martin, Telegraph
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/05/22/do2201.xml
I hope today is not an Eastbourne.
Think the best result for us is a smallish win today, that leaves Brown in place until the GE - wounded, dour and brooding.
The parallels with 1990/Eastbourne are not pleasant - Thatcher went within a month and Major won the subsequent election and went on for 5 years. Whilst that was good, seeing the same with Labour this time wouldn’t be.
Let’s just lay off Brown for a bit - in my view he is directly related to the size of our majority at the GE.
Why would we want him to go, unless it is at our hands in a General Election?
That said - happy hunting to the team in C&N today.
a win in a safe Labour seat would be outstanding. Labour are getting into moronic expectation management with a front page guardian story saying they expect us to win by 8000. Yawn, stop spinning.
6 - on the basis of Labour “predictions” of recent elections, i think we can expect a Conservative majority of at least 10,000.
BTW Labour spinning is utterly stupid. There is no doubt that there are large numbers of “Labour only” voters who are utterly disillusioned with the Govt. However they are of the “peg on the nose” variety, and as such are only likely to be motivated by some prospect of a Labour/non-Tory victory. Spinning the expectation of a Conservative landslide is only likely to exaggerate the size of their victory.
Have been delivering in Crewe West since 4 am and am in need of a bacon sandwich!
I don’t think the comparisons are valid for a whole load of reasons.
First of all on the mechanics. The Conservative rules in 1990 meant that they were able to put in place a new, legitimate leader, elected after a fair contest accepted by all the MPs, in a couple of weeks.
The Labour rules on the other hand cannot see a new permanent leader in place until a year next September (!) if followed properly without Gordon stepping down. Even if they somehow manage to circumvent the rules (or Gordon steps down voluntarily) that still leaves them with a caretaker leader/PM for many months. There’s bound to be disagreement about who even gets that job!
And secondly on policy. After Thatcher went Major had some clear advantages compared to today. He had a clear popular measure to be introduced, associated personally with Thatcher (abolition of the poll tax) and a popular war that was about to be fought. Labour cannot even decide about the problem let alone the solution.
What a consolation that is, Mike!
Does anyone else think there might be a sting in tail for Timpson personally, here? Although it is nice to be a star in a by-election, he is left in a rather poor position for his future career. After all, though we may win this now, there is a good chance that this particular seat will swing back to Labour in a general election including most scenarios in which we win a majority. In the meantime however he can hardly be out interviewing for other more winnable seats, as he has to be seen keenly defending this one. So his actual career in parliament will be cut short in two years and he will have to wait another four to get back in!
What was best about the Eastbourne election was that Mrs Thatcher had - just a few weeks earlier at the Conservative Party Conference - described the Liberal Democrats and their new logo as like a ‘dead parrot’.
10 - Not necessarily. I suspect that C&N is far more marginal that the results at the last election suggest (Dunwoody’s personal vote). If he wins then in a Conservative election victory he will have a pretty good chance of holding on. And from that point on, who knows? There are many great politicians who have built enormous majorities on the back of marginals when they were first elected.
Eastbourne was merely one in a long string of heavy by-election losses by the Conservative government. I just can’t imagine the Labour Party coming to a collective realisation that there is a viable alternative leader who would incontrovertibly be better than Brown.
It is yet to become clear whether 2008 to 2010 is the equivalent of 1995 to 1997, or the equivalent of 1985 to 1987, but it isn’t the quivalent of 1990 to 1992.
13 - To be fair, they don’t need to come to the conclusion that there is a leader that would be “incontrovertibly” better than Brown. Merely that they wouldn’t be incontrovertibly worse (that would be quite a trick) and could be better.
BTW I read somewhere that the Conservatives didn’t lose any set of elections (ie local, Euro) in the UK until the end of the eighties. That would presumably rule out 85-87 if we’re doing comparisons.
Alex if Brown quits then a new de facto leader would be put in place by the cabinet. That is Labour’s rules I understand.
Anyway this politics, after all, and there are no rules when all is said and done. What is needful must be done and there are no second prizes for MPs, only consolation in a well funded sinecure. They then have the money, sometimes the prestige but it is rarely enough. Ambition is dead.
I predict (this is my proper prediction this time):
Con 15,610
Lab 8,870
LD 8,260
UKIP 680
Green 590
OMRLP 310
ED 270
Gemma 250
CToPaD 150
Ind 80
15 - I know. But s/he would be a caretaker leader by definition, in place until the party could get a leadership contest organised.
14. Maybe it’s 1916 to 1918? The general election will be countermanded by the people’s revolution
I predict
OMRLP 68,537
Con 3
LD 2
Gemma 1
Green 1
Others 0
8. Any feedback from the streets of C & N?
From the Independent - a street that I delivered near Crewe Alexander ground.
Very positive for Lib Dems as I found, but interesting to hear what the Tory policy on Polish “immigration” will be.
The people vs Gordon Brown: Revolution in Bedford Street
….”One of the main issues in Crewe that I think could help the Tories is their policy on immigration; they are tougher than Labour and that is what Crewe needs because the number of Polish people coming to live here is far too high at the moment.”
http://tinyurl.com/47jq7p
20 - Mrs Twigg seems to be a bit confused! What does she think LibDem immigration policy is?
13. I’m not sure that looking for specific ‘equivalents’ is particularly useful. There are aspects of what’s going on now that parallel each of those periods.
As Alex rightly says at [9], although Brown is part of the problem, he is only that - part of the problem. Perhaps even more pressing is the way that the public has lost confidence in the whole New Labour project. It’s not that it’s written off forever, but the results against the cost seem out of kilter to many. Brown’s ineptitude and preference for playing political games to ‘get one over’ on the opposition just strengthen the impression that they don’t really care.
However, parties in trouble don’t always act sensibly or logically, and it’s possible that Brown will be seen as the sole cause of Labour’s difficulty - possible, but unlikely. In 1990, Margaret Thatcher saw the cabinet individually and they told her that the game was up. Brown is no Thatcher, but despite that, how many of today’s cabinet would be willing to do likewise? I think it’s more likely that they’d blame anyone but Brown - Labour dissentists for causing splits, the media, the public for ‘not understanding’, the Tories for vacuous opposition, the global economy - and so on.
And to some extent they are right - the Tories’ problems were only partly down to Thatcher; more pressing was the Poll Tax and the political imperative to repeal it. Backbench Tory MPs saw that the only way to do so was to remove the leader - and then promptly learnt the wrong lesson that removing the leader wins you an election and spent the next ten years working on that basis during which time the party never looked like winning an election.
Removing Brown - cumbersome and difficult though the process is - only makes sense if there is a better alternative, but unless the basic problem is identified and a solution suggested to deal with that problem, how can anyone come to an opinion as to whether the solution would work. Howe was able to kick things off in 1990 because he knew that Heseltine lay waiting in the wings, with a decent diagnosis and prescription for the Conservative’s troubles. Although Major ended up winning, he bought into Heseltine’s view - and won the election.
Without knowing that someone understands the problems, what is the point of launching into a bitter leadership fight? Perhaps some in the cabinet (Denham?) do ‘get’ what’s gone wrong, but they can’t say so, precisely because they *are* in the cabinet - Heseltine wasn’t.
My prediction is that either Brown will go because he feels it’s no longer worth staying, or he won’t go at all before the election, irrespective of what happens in Crewe and Nantwich, or indeed, in future by-elections.
O/T The Labour government in New Zealand (who are also trailing badly in the polls( have just announced a massive ‘give-away’ tax cutting budget with some benfit increases also being brought forward. It may not be enough to save them at the upcoming election, but it should certainly help shore up their core vote.
Could this perhaps be repeated in the UK ? Could it privide a template for GB (or his successor) ?
17 - And who would be PM or would we have a caretaker PM until the Labour party elects a new proper leader and PM. In which case you would have 4 PM’s in 2 years, one for the record books but would almost guarantee Labour annihilation at the next election.
JohnLoony I see you are predicting a 48% turnout (if the electorate is the same size as in 2005 - when T/O was 60%). Whilst the turnout is likely to drop, don’t you think that the Tory and Lib Dem votes will go up more than that (2005 Conservative was 14162, and Lib Dem 8083).
The more I look at it the more likely is a third place for Gordon Brown’s Labour Party.
Alex [21] Surely the response to an influx of people, whether from Scotland or Poland is to provide resources for local services to cope - The resources being financed by the taxes that the new residents pay.
24. 4 PM’s in two years wouldn’t be a record, though it would be highly unusual. Lloyd-George, Bonar Law, Baldwin and MacDonald were all PM between 1922 and 1924 (and Baldwin made a return at the end of 1924).
In earlier times, there have been even more rapid changes of PM. There were five during 1782-3 and four within twelve months in both 1827-8 and 1834-5.
I’m assuming that you’re including Cameron as the fourth at the moment, but there’s no guarentee that the election will be before 2010 (three years after Blair left), nor that the Conservatives will win.
DAvid Herdson Your prediction is a banker: “My prediction is that either Brown will go because he feels it’s no longer worth staying, or he won’t go at all before the election”.
The other alternatives are?
I would also take issue with your getting too fixed on the rules. If Brown has to go a way will be found, and Alex, if the cabinet put in a PM that is it, any change will need a challenge and that is very unlikely because by the time any weakness is apparent the election will be upon them, and if he or she turns the ship around a bit and saves enough seats then the ex-PM is fairly secure, I would have thought.
26.
Thinking about the resources needed, *before* the influx, not ten years later, would have been a better bet. Now, if there’s a global recession, things are going to get very nasty.
25. The absolute number of votes for the main opposition party is the thought which occurred to me as I wrote that prediction, and I’m in the middle of investingating the subject at the moment (I’ll tell you in a few minutes)
Why is it often said/assumed that Callaghan would have won an election in October 1978, despite the heavy losses in by-elections in 1976 and 1977?
28. Sorry, should have been more specific: Brown will go because he feels it’s no longer worth staying, or he won’t go at all before the General Election. In other words, he won’t be forced out by others.
21 - People think LibDem policy is what they want it to be, and the LibDems seldom disabuse them.
31 - They invest too much into the Winter of Discontent.
It’s not going to be 1990.
By 1990 Thatcher had been in charge of the Conservative Party for 15 years, there were countless old enemies on the back benches lining up with some very frustrated and ambitious newer MP’s determined to clear what they believed had become a roadblock to progress and Eastbourne provided the final evidence.
Also the fact that we lost Eastbourne so heavily was not forseen so there was a much greater shock effect.
The win today may be emphatic but it won’t be a Labour rout and Brown will survive; I actually think a lot of Labour voters *will* turn out simply because of all the negative publicity and the growing triumphalism in some sections of the Conservative Party and media.
I dread us having a ‘Sheffield Rally’ moment, I really do.
One parallel is that the Conservatives had spent a good deal of time attacking their own supporters, partly as a result of its economic policy and ERM membership, and partly because political genius Ken Clarke thought it would be a good idea in the longer term to reform the police and professions.
Labour is now the same. Working class people are bearing the brunt of our economic woes, and crime. They are also the target of nanny state interventions against smoking and leaving school and so on.
Marcus, it could well be 1990.
By 2008 Gordon Brown has been in charge of the economic policy of the Labour Party for 15 years…..
Just back from Moscow somewhat wrecked!
http://i230.photobucket.com/albums/ee102/S…rdust/terry.jpg
The economic horror show is continuing. Though I think it is a virtual certainly that the election will bein 2010, I can see the appeal for Labour of running away and letting the Tories get eaten by the monster.
Labour party supporters in C and N might think to themselves today that it is better for them not to vote, or even to vote Tory, in the hope that it is indeed a rout for Labour and that Brown is forced out, at least giving Labour a chance at the next GE.
35 Marcus. How are your blulhsits this morning ?
(BTW … Nasty Conservative Piles)
John Loony - correct. Callagahan would have almost certainly lost in 78, which is why he didn’t go to the polls. Ditto Brown in early Autumn 07.
That they then proceed to do worse than they would have, had they gone to the polls is a different question and involves hindsight judgement
22 “My prediction is that either Brown will go because he feels it’s no longer worth staying, or he won’t go at all before the election …..”
Do you know what, David, I think you may well be right!
16. and 25.
Big by-election losses:
Number of votes for the party which won the by-election in the preceding general election, and in the by-election, and the relative percentage
After 1987:
Vale of Glamorgan (Lab): 17978 23342 (130%)
Staffs Mid (Lab): 13990 27649 (198%)
Eastbourne (LD): 16664 23415 (141%)
Ribble Valley (LD): 10608 22377 (211%)
Monmouth (Lab): 13037 17733 (136%)
Kincardine & Deeside (LD): 17375 20779 (120%)
After 1992:
Newbury (LD): 24778 37590 (152%)
Christchurch (LD): 13612 33164 (244%)
Eastleigh (LD): 21296 24473 (115%)
((( Monklands East (SNP): 6554 15320 (232%) )))
Dudley West (Lab): 28940 28400 (98%)
Perth & Kinross (SNP): 18101 16931 (94%)
Littleborough & Saddleworth (LD): 19188 16231 (85%)
Staffs SE (Lab): 21988 26155 (119%)
Wirral South (Lab): 17407 22767 (130%)
Conclusion: in order to get a big increase in the absolute number of votes for the main challenging party, it is necessary to squeeze the third party and/or minor parties, and have a big turnout. I think there will not be a squeeze of the Lib Dem votes in Crewe & Nantwich; the turnout could be interesting if my prediction is wrong.
41…piles…OF VOTES!
P.S. I think it is easier to squeeze the Lib Dems and Labour tactically in favour of each other than it is to squeeze the Lib Dems tactically in favour of the Conservative Party.
Do you have the numbers of Simon Hughes’ win which I believe is the record holder (for a major party anyway)?
In the absence of a formal PB.com competition, maybe we should each be allowed a guess on the C&N outcome, mine would be a Tory majority of 4,276.
JohnLoony’s prediction at 16 looks plausible to me: I don’t think expectations here are too significant in the wider scene, so we can be reasonably frank with each other. Since I was in Crewe on Sunday I’ve not had more involvement myself (partly tied up in commitee, and the Dalai Lama’s visit which I’ve had some involvement in) but second-hand reports in the last few days have been pretty bad. I don’t expect the Tories to top a 10K majority but I do think they’ll win comfortably.
After that, we’ll all push off for a week’s recess and life will go on. I agree with much of David Herdson’s general analysis and neither expect nor want a leadership challenge. There are things I do want in terms of policy and presentation that I won’t discuss here.
49. I know it’s a “what if” but what if the majority is over 10K or close to it? Start of meltdown or has it already started?
I already have a bet on elsewhere; I am going to guess a 14% swing to Con from Labour on a 45% turnout, but can’t be bothered to work out what that means in actual numbers.
48, I’ll stick with my politicshome figure of a Tory win of 1,723. (And yes, I know that’s more pessimistic than almost everyone else).
Meltdown has already started — loyalty time delay and Blair’s grin masked it.
47. Simon Hughes’s victory was a record in terms of % swing from one party to another (Lib went up from 6% to 56%, Lab went down from 64% to 28%).
The absolute figures were
1979: Lib 2072; by-election 17017 (821%)
(incidentally, I seem to remember that it was an amusing moment when the returning officer accidentally said “one thousand, seven hundred…” before correcting himself)
49 After that, we’ll all push off for a week’s recess and life will go on.
Blimey, you lot certainly like your holidays - you’ve only been back a month!
54 - Interesting if you add the Liberal by-election vote to the number of the post you get a palindrome.
Also when I say meltdown I mean they’ve set in train a process of turning a tribal vote into a floating vote. Doesn’t mean they won’t get that floating vote in some circumstances. Frank Field is safe as houses for example.
OT but an interesting point I heard is that ousted / defeated leaders have been removed from office because of perceived failure in an area of supposed expertise
Eden - a foreign policy expert - Suez
Callaghan - the Union man - “The Winter of Discontent”
Thatcher - claimed to feel the pain of middle England - Poll tax / local taxation
Brown - Enabled labour to “own” economic competence as a value - ousted becaue of economic failure??
Nick [49]- Thanks for that - I am pleased that unlike the Tories who, when in a hole, say its all about getting their message over better. What is needed are some policy changes.
In particular all parties have ignored the serious effect that high oil prices are having on the economy. Petrol and Diesel are literally the lubricant that makes the economy work.
Retail prices of fuel need to come down immediately - Partly this could be achieved by examining the practises of the energy companies. Why is Diesel going up faster than petrol? Why does the price of gas slavishly follow the cost of crude oil? Partly the tax needs to come down.
I know that this will upset the long term aspirations of those who want to reduce the amount of CO2 produced but so be it. Things are serious and about to get very much worse.
58 John W Interesting thought.
39
Agree.
Post 2010 is going to be very difficult economically and politically.
How do you tell an electorate that they can no longer afford their prior lifestyle?
And that the increasing % of elderly needing care means taxes to care for them will have to rise?
And that driving 20,000 miles a year alone in a car will not be affordable.. and will be actively discouraged.
Nasty times a coming.
59
Diesel is going up faster cos demand is rising faster than supply. Sales of diesel cars in Europe are nearly 50% of total new car registrations.
madasafish you make me feel like an optimist.
58 Also, Major - England become a third rate outfit at cricket.
63
I trade oil companies.
It has been on the cards for years.
The warnings have been ignored.
Saudi cannot produce much more an dits major fields are coming near the end of their life.
Mexican output has peaked.
Ditto UK.
Ditto Russia.
New supplies in 2009 will give temporary respite.
Forecasts are spike to $200 per barrel this year… entirely feasible.. Then a 30-40% fall..?
Madasafish - correct. And because it is an unpleasant truth it is barely being addressed at all.
Re. 42, I agree (though Callaghan and Brown did themselves no favours by appearing to be marching their troops back down the hill). Had Callaghan gone in 78 (and lost), we’d probably, as with Wilson in July 1970, be asking why he didn’t wait slightly longer. Then again, a Tory GE victory in October 78 wouldn’t have been nearly as good for the Tories, when the Winter of Discontent happening while Thatcher was PM would just have taken as further proof that the Tories couldn’t work with the unions.
Re. 5, I wouldn’t worry, if it’s worth having a new Labour leader, it’ll be to minimise the scale of defeat at the GE (and possibly hold on to some seats in the south-east, such as Southampton Itchen) not to secure victory. If Brown goes, it won’t just be thanks to MPs in marginal seats wishing to save their own skins, it’ll be the wish of the Labour Party to avoid a 1983-like defeat from which it would take the party fourteen (or even twenty) years to recover. That said, if Balls became PM, the Labour Party could look forward to a defeat on the scale of 1931.
What did it for the lady in 1990 was not Eastbourne but her screeching, “No, Mr. Speaker, No, No, No”. Her much respected but cruelly abused pet sheep, Geoffrey, roared, leaped the fence, unleashed a barrage of cricketing metaphors, and the rest, as they say, was….
Who do ewe think is going to do the same to Gordon?
Which branch of show business is Gord in?
I think Cherie Blair has got in right in her autobiography
These relentlessly gossipy memoirs are devoid of any serious politics, and they’re all the better for it. “Speaking For Myself” will probably be a huge seller — proof, if any were needed, that the Blairs always understood that modern politics is just a branch of show business.
Continuing
Rochdale 1970 and 1972: Lib: 14076 19296 (137%)
Sutton & Cheam 1970 and 1972: Lib: 6023 18328 (304%)
((( Dundee East 1970 and 1973: SNP: 4181 13270 )))
Isle of Ely 1970 and 1973: Lib: n/a 17390
Ripon 1970 and 1973: Lib: 4583 13902
Berwick-upon-Tweed 1970 and 1973: 6741 12489
Glasgow Govan 1970 and 1973: 2294 6360
Walsall North 1974 and 1976: Con: 12455 16212
Workington 1974 and 1976: Con: 12988 19396
Birmingham Stechford 1974 and 1977: Con: 11152 15731
Ashfield 1974 and 1977: Con: 12452 19616
Ilford North 1974 and 1978: Con: 19843 22548
Liverpool Eedge Hill 1974 and 1979: Lib: 6852 12945
madasafish have you seen this article.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.jhtml?xml=/money/2008/05/22/ccoil122.xml
Thanks John, btw where do you get your figures from - or is it secret OMRL data?
John Loony is quite right re. working-class disillusion with the government. The 10p tax rate affair will just have cemented a feeling that, as John Loony put it a while ago, it’s all stick and no carrot. When people do take low paid jobs, they often get hammered with marginal tax rates of over 50%. Tapering off levels are often set at ridiculously low thresholds, and penalise aspiration and self-betterment. I know, for instance, someone who, just because she moved from part-time hours (in a low paid job) to full-time hours, had her entitlement to free dental care withdrawn, leaving her hardly any better off.
47 there is an excellent by-elections section in Wikipedia with all the numbers you could ever want
Try again: I assume that the use of the word lesb1an 5 times was too much for aunty Mike’s filter.
OT Tom Harris’ blog (a transport Minister) is amusing:
Regional variations in lesb1anism
“It’s a pity that none of the lobby journalists appeared to be in the gallery during the exchange between Geraldine Smith, the Morecambe MP, and Chris Bryant, MP for Rhondda. Challenging Geraldine’s support for Iain Duncan Smith’s amendment to the Bill on the basis that it would discriminate against same-sex couples, Chris suggested Geraldine had not sought the opinions of lesb1ans in her constituency. She replied (and this is subject to correction by Hansard): “Actually I talk to lots of lesb1ans in my constituency. Maybe lesb1ans in Lancashire are just more down to earth than lesb1ans in the Rhondda.” Fantastic!
When was the last time you heard an exchange like that in the Commons? In fact, when did you last see a title like this for a blog post?”
His thought on what Labour MPs who had told their whip that they were in Crewe, got up to was also interesting!
Whoops I hadn’t finished editing
Continuing
Rochdale 1970 and 1972: Lib: 14076 19296 (137%)
Sutton & Cheam 1970 and 1972: Lib: 6023 18328 (304%)
((( Dundee East 1970 and 1973: SNP: 4181 13270 (317%) )))
Isle of Ely 1970 and 1973: Lib: n/a 17390 (n/a)
Ripon 1970 and 1973: Lib: 4583 13902 (303%)
Berwick-upon-Tweed 1970 and 1973: 6741 12489 (185%)
Glasgow Govan 1970 and 1973: 2294 6360 (277%)
(easy to get big scores if there is a big swing to the third party instead of the second)
Walsall North 1974 and 1976: Con: 12455 16212 (130%)
Workington 1974 and 1976: Con: 12988 19396 (149%)
Birmingham Stechford 1974 and 1977: Con: 11152 15731 (141%)
Ashfield 1974 and 1977: Con: 12452 19616 (158%)
Ilford North 1974 and 1978: Con: 19843 22548 (114%)
Liverpool Eedge Hill 1974 and 1979: Lib: 6852 12945 (189%)
(Maybe my prediction was wrong in predicting a relatively low turnout).
50. I know it’s a “what if” but what if the majority is over 10K or close to it? Start of meltdown or has it already started?
It might be fun if dozens of Labour MPs commit hara-kiri in despair and we get loads more big swings in by-elections.
madasafish - But if the market is working, diesel car drivers would buy less diesel. What pray are they going to switch to?
O/T - The Guardian cartoon is merciless today, it hasn’t got its own link but you should be able to see it here.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/index.html
73. I don’t remember talking about the 10p tax rate
72. I got my figures from
1992: Times Guide to the House of Commons
1987: Times Guide to the House of Commons
1974: “Britain Votes 1: 1974 to 1977″ by F.W.S. Craig
1970: “British Parliamentary Election results 1950-1970″ by F.W.S. Craig
and my own records of by-election results
79 that is a brilliant cartoon.
What if everybody voted for whoever they thought was going to come last? What if people voted on the assumption that the candidate with second-most votes wins?
Oregon Update - O-59/C-41 - 99% reporting.
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#OR
Nick at 49. I’m away at the moment and things look different when you’re not deluged by the 24 hour drama queens that think the world’s falling apart. Gordon probably doesn’t need to go but the party does need to restate what it stands for. A dose of sackcloth and ashes for some of it’s recent rightwingery is a necessary start.
But most important is for someone to get a grip and remember what the Labour Party should be. Denigrating the Tories isn’t something Labour as market leaders need to waste their time on. The public can figure out their deficiencies for themselves.
80,73 — JohnLoony is not John L. The former is a serious politician, and I a mere punter.
48 I predict a C&N Tory majority of 5,500.
The “Telegraph” looks at Obama’s 50 state strategy and its potential to overwelm McCain. Incidently this report picked up by Drudge :
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/democrats/2002809/US-elections-Barack-Obama-juggernaut-%27will-crush-John-McCain%27.html
O/T - Oil price breaks through $135
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7414093.stm
79
Is it just me, or is that cartoon in shockingly bad taste?
Birmingham Ladywood 1966 and 1969: Lib: 3580 5104 (143%)
Acton 1966 and 1968: Con: 13600 12242 (90%)
Meriden 1966 and 1968: Con: 29250 33344 (114%)
Dudley 1966 and 1968: Con: 22671 28016 (124%)
Orpington 1959 and 1962: Lib: 9092 22846 (251%)
Fulham East 1931 and 1933: Lab: 8917 17790 (200%)
Dartford 1918 and 1920: Lab: 6256 13610 (218%)
78
You jest of course. As you know, on average UK new car purchases are mainly fleet - leased for 3 years. Inelastic demand in the short term.
71
yes.
It’s very good. I read it at 5am due to insomnia:-(
But if you read carefully, it says prices will fall… in 2 years’ time… maybe:-)
Waht is does not say is: China has had an apalling winter. Oil demand rose 1 million barrels a day… and for all I know may be continuing.
What it also does not say is the US is increasing its strategic oil stockpile (for war with Iran) and China is building up its own. Both increase demand .. and will eventually stop.
49. Well what are we to make of that? On the face of it, about as downbeat an assessment as one might expect from a Labour uber-spinner. But of course Labour has been ramping up the expected size of a Tory win in recent days, in an attempt to be able to spin the final result as ‘disappointing’. So we must be careful.
Reminds me of the ‘Kremlinology’ one used to have to engage in to decipher pronouncements from the Soviet regime years ago. Quite an appropriate comparison, in many ways…
89 - it’s not just you. It’s a disgrace that it has been published in a national newspaper.
84 “A dose of sackcloth and ashes for some of it’s recent rightwingery is a necessary start.
But most important is for someone to get a grip and remember what the Labour Party should be…”
And what exactly should the Labour party (in government) be, Roger?
Aren’t Labour governments forever destined to let down their more hard-line and core supporters by cosying up to the spivier end of big business, cr@pping on the vulnerable, cronyism, snouts-in-the-trough, putting foreigners before the indigenous working class, etc etc.
Betrayal of their own supporters is a recurring theme of Labour governments who are inevitably more “right-wing” than their supporters had been led to believe they would be. I remember similiar squeals of betrayal in the second half of the seventies.
Twas ever thus. Seems like lefty Labour supporters are forever destined to be disappointed.
All those percentage increases suggest that, on past form, we should be expecting a relatively high turnout in C&N - perhaps 55% or 60% - except that I’m not expecting one.
79. Genius
86, I thought that said 55,000 at first:p
91, interestingly, although corporate goods in April 2008 had increased in price generally by 10.3% compared to the same period last year, car prices in China fell by 1.6%. So, it would be reasonable to assume that there are more cars there and will continue to be so, driving up the usage of oil in China.
Good point about the winter though. Worst for 50 years and it’s played a part in the soaring price of food in China.
The result of C&N could be Browns Eastbourne, but of course its the same old arguement. Its much, much easier for the Tories to ditch their leader than it is for Labour to ditch theirs. Its fine in theory to talk about Brown having to go and being forced out, but when you to the how and why, it all starts to see rather far fetched.
[89] Yes it is, and it’s also very funny.
98, the extra problem is that a leadership change would create a new set of problems, such as potential bloodletting. Especially bad is the fact that Labour obediently lined up behind the Supreme Leader, so knifing him so soon would be both disloyal and, worse, expose their own ill judgement.
A sobering thought , I need a thought to sober me up after winning the decider to win the Team Knock Out Cup for my team the Duke Of Wellie B against the Windmill/Schooner last night . Not Accrington beating Man U but akin to Crewe beating Villa .
Leaving aside how we will all spin the result the Conservative win in C&N , the key thing to look for is their total vote compared to that in 2005 . Conservative voters will clearly be very enthused to go out and vote ( especially in the Nantwich part of the seat ) and Labour voters not but can the Conservatives show that they have actually convinced people who voted for other parties in 2005 to vote for them now .
FWIW majority 6-7,000 IMHO .
97
Car registrations are increasing 35% year over year in China.
Iirc it produces some 5 million new cars a year. On that basis it will be a larger producer of cars than the US by 2013-5.
Oil demand will partially reduce when their nuclear power stations come on stream but car and plane usage will more than offset any savings.
As for coal usage! Coal contracts for renewal in 2008 have trebled in price.
100 - Absolutely. To be fair though I think that they realise this and are looking into the abyss and the abyss is looking back.
88. How much of a rising oil price is happening because the dollar is losing value? Presumably if the dollar halves the price for a barrel of oil doubles but in real terms stays the same outside the dollar zone?
Our problem is the collapsing pound keeping company with the sagging dollar.
My “barking mad” take on Roger’s comments above at 84 (last time I looked) is that what is on the cards for the Labour Party is their going the same way as the post First World War Liberals. Blair severed the links with the “working class” core vote and the post-Berlin Wall re-alignment has also demolished the ideological left-right tribalism. We all have a vote but if we no longer feel any loyalty to what has now become a “brand” then the future may be insecure for any Party (including the Tories) who fail to analyse their electorate properly.
What I’m hearing from traditional Labour voting areas in the North is that changes to employment and local economics have produced startling levels of insecurity as this electorate has grown older and nearing their pensionable age. You can try to blame your Pakistani neighbours or Gordon Brown but the inevitable conclusion that most people come to is that life is shit and “why did I bother?”. This gloom is only partially alleviated by football but soccer stars with hyperinflated salaries can also increase the agony when you stop to think about it.
This is a very dangerous situation and rather than taking delight in the defeat of either Gordon Brown or his replacement we should be thinking of the possible implications for the rest of political life in this country.
Labour’s reaction too an appalling result will show whether there has been a fundamental change in the party’s character.
If Labour now sees itself as a party of government, (which after three GE victories it should) then GB’s days will be numbered.
With oil at $135 a barrel, and capitalism going through one of its periodic spasms, the UK is probably going to go through a very disturbed period politically.
After 18 years of Tory rule, and 13 years, (probably) of Labour, it is unlikely we will see multiple wins for either main party for some years to come.
104 Perhaps it is a shame we do not have the Euro instead , oil/petrol would be much cheaper ?
104
Time to enter the Eurozone Marcus?
105, I agree there’s less tribal loyalty generally, however the Tories are probably best placed to weather that. Not through Cameron being leader or a policy platform (:p) but just because we only have one big rightwing party. If you’re a lefty you have two major choices so the Lib Dems, if they dumped Clegg and grew a spine, could overtake Labour.
104. The IMF has estimated that just under 40% of the rise in oil from 2002-2007 was due to the weaker dollar, Marcus.
107 - But then we would have had lower interest rates when we didn’t need them and a failure to cut interest rates now. The UK economy would have rampant price inflation and the housing market would be in a worse state than currently.
The Guardian seem to be suggesting that unless the Conservatives secure a 20% swing, Labour will in 2010. Hmm.
The high price of oil is going to be massively painful, but I would still rather we have the pound over the euro. And at least some good will come out of this high oil price, i.e. the enviroment will benefit, with people increasingly moving away from driving their cars all the while and and perhaps even more importantly, we should start to see a rpaid rise in people fitting green energy to their homes. I’m thinking of getting solar panels later this year.
This comment in the Guardian, will probably be the main read for most Labour MP’s today.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/22/gordonbrown.labour
That cartoon was simply brilliant, when they do political programmes about Brown’s demise, that’s the one they’ll show.
We live in interesting times!!
112: Which of their ‘great minds’ is suggesting that?
107, 108 I do expect (yet) another Euro debate to erupt as and when we find ourselves in a currency crisis-led recession which I think is going to happen between now and the end of 2009.
I can almost hear Will Hutton sharpening his pencil…..
113, my house has solar panels. Soemwhat costly but I think they pay for themselves in a few decades (plus if you sell your house they’re a cool feature to have). Just flick a switch and you get your water heated by the sun.
Can’t use them all the time, clearly, but even when it doesn’t feel too hot sometimes the panels are still hot enough to use.
O/T
Concerning price of oil,you ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
May 22 (Bloomberg) — Crude oil rose to a record above $135 a barrel in New York after U.S. stockpiles unexpectedly dropped and traders closed losing trades on bets that prices would fall.
Oil has risen 19 percent this month as analysts have increased their price forecasts because of supply constraints and demand growth. U.S. crude inventories fell 5.32 million barrels to 320.4 million barrels last week, the biggest drop in four months, the Energy Department said yesterday. Gasoline supplies plunged 755,000 barrels when analysts expected a gain.
“Everyone’s jumped on the bandwagon,” said Anthony Nunan, assistant general manager for risk management at Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s biggest trading company, in Tokyo. “There’s agreement that $200 is possible and that’s getting more people into the market. We have very little supply cushion going forward and that’s playing into the minds of investors.”
The full article is on Bloomberg.com
49 There speaks the counsellor of despair. Unless Labour gets rid of Brown many many people will give up on our chances of winning again. For the sake of your own political future, Nick, I hope you are wrong.
119
I disagree.
Do you expect Nick to tell us first of a rebellion?
His comments on policy and presentation say it all.
119. Nick doesn’t have a political future, at least not as MP for Broxtowe
The question I keep wrestling with is this: if Gordon Brown were openly challenged, would he fight for his job? I just can’t imagine it if his opponent was getting substantial levels of support.
49
A depressing post from nick! When the voters want change give too ‘em,
Still its good to see the Tories have this I.T. business sussed.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/22/crewebyelection08.conservatives
121
I wouldnt discount it, given the amount of work he is doing in his constituency. If he works hard enough its possible to buck the trend, but not if its of tidal wave proportions.
123, seems a bizarre mistake to make. Why would you send that information to anyone anyway, nevermind sending it to the wrong bloke?
Still, thankfully the people of C&N have the database masterminds of Labour to vote for.
116. Luckily Will Hutton’s completely destroyed his credibility by getting the credit crunch so wrong.
124. Look at the numbers MTF - Nick’s seat is highly marginal now. No way can he buck the kind of national swing which current evidence suggests is likely. He might just lose less badly than some of his colleagues.
But I strongly suspect a slot will be found for him elsewhere, as a reward for his sterling spinning work - Brussels seems likely.
126. As well as everything else over the last 15 years or so. He has no credibility.
Remember today, people, with respect to Crewe, we get the representation we deserve - but in this case it will be even worse!
128. It infuriates me that the BBC regularly wheel him out as some economic guru though.
129 - you’re expecting Lab hold then?
49.
“I don’t expect the Tories to top a 10K majority but I do think they’ll win comfortably.”
Nick, any half-decent Tory agent would have that (posted 8.13) on a leaflet by 10.00 and out on the streets of Crewe: “We’re Zhagged herE says Midlands Labour MP” or suchlike. That’s if they didn’t have far more powerfuls stuff to stick on Gordon.
Eastbourne? I’ll settle for a Labour GE win two years from now!
OT
With Obama just 64 delegates short of the magic 2026 why doesn’t he allow Floridas delegates to sit - he would instantly pick up 67 plus some of the 13 that went to Edwards?
Once over that 2026 what could Clinton then do?
131.
I’m expecting the blue Tory with the big smile will beat the pink Tory with the nasty leaflets.
130.They wheel out Keven Macguire regularly as a political pundit too….
I read somewhere recently that the Beeb and sky have to say that Iain Dale is Conservative leaning commentator, sky duly did so a couple nights ago as an afterthought. The only problem, he was sitting to Keven Macguire and I waited in vain for him to be called a Labour….
From the Guardian on C&N,
“Analysis undertaken by political betting websites suggests that since the war there has been a regular swing back to governments in general elections in comparison with byelections.”
No hat-tip to RodCrosby, though. But, clear evidence of the extending influence of pb.com.
85.
“The former is a serious politician,”
Oxymoron time? (as opposed to Prescott the oxtail moron).
As mentioned above, Eastbourne was certainly not the first (nor last) C loss in that Parliament.
For example:
4.5.89: Vale of Glamorgan: Lab gain from C, swing 12.3%
Thatcher does not go.
22.3.90: Mid Staffs: Lab gain from C, swing 21.3% (!)
Thatcher still does not go.
….
Thatcher does go
….
29.3.91: Monmouth: Lab gain from C, swing 12,6%.
Major does not go.
May 1992: C and Major win general election with an overall majority.
As I have said before, these mid term disastrous by-election results (and May local results) used to be the norm, and as often as not the government recovered to win the next general election.
If there really were to be a movement against GB on the basis of the current position it could be because Labour MPs are just not used to being behind. Of course (as I have also said before), they really are in trouble, but that’s because of the short and medium term economic outlook (Mervyn King’s speech should have been far more alarming than one byelection result) - and it doesn’t matter who their leader will be in that key regard.
127: Lib Dem MPs manage it but it does need you to be independent of party.
128: The BBC often wheel out ‘experts’ who just happen to write for the Guardian.
130. It’s the cosy old boys club effect I’m afraid. BBC, Guardian, all friends at the dinner party table etc…pretty much a closed intellectual (sic) loop.
Any more on the Milburn rumour, Mike?
Seems the norm these days, web etiquette means most bloggers hat tip their source. The dead tree press on the other hand, use vague references in an attempt to keep some sort of superiority. Most of them have their own political blogs which regularly round up the best of their own and other sites, why not put it in a column in the paper as well?
139. What do you think of this Guardian analysis on tactical voting at the locals?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/02/localelections.localgovernment2
re 142. Nothing either way Paul.
137 I thought the conclusion reached about this on here was that it was a *fallacy* that there was a swing back to the Government towards elections, except under Thatcher.
Maybe that was wishful thinking but can anyone remind me?
Regarding the comment upthread about Labour risk being in the same position as the Liberals shortly before their demise in the 20’s, they certainly are, but not for the reason stated.
It is not that Blair disconnected from the working classes. More that Labour’s basic block vote, the white working class is of a diminishing size. For the Liberals it was the decline of religeous non conformity which had underpinned their cross-class appeal.
The replacement class is the suburban lower middle class - Worcester Woman, or maybe Nantwich Barrett Man. Sadly they are a fickle bunch
Quiet day, so lets bash the BBC. Mike Smithson, Jeff Randall, Andrew Gilligan, Andrew Neil. All BBC alumni, not one could be considered a Guardianista.
McBean has “flaws”. Can’t get around that. It would be a mercy killing.
134 Thereis a flaw in your argument….the “magic 2026″ is on the basis of Florida and Michigan being excluded - seat Florida and the number rises to again be just out of reach!
Robert Peston also.
150 cheers
139- the difference is of course that Gordon Brown is seen as the reason why Labour are suffering in the polls- as opposed to in the late 80s/90s where there was a more general distaste to the Conservative Party as a whole.
By late 1990, this had changed slightly, in that the cabinet felt that it was indeed Thatcher that was generating unpopularity and in the same way, Major never went because love him or loathe him he was more popular than his party was. Brown is safe so long as the party does not blame him for the party’s unpopularity- and of course, at the moment he seems to be the biggest turn off for voters.
If the swing is anything like 20%, then Brown’s days will be numbered- I think such a by election defeat will go down worse now- in a more image and perception obsessed era than it did in 1990.
142.Paul, Sam Coates spotted that Milburn had relaunched his website which is fair enough, but is that just a coincidence considering the timing?
Oh look, Alan Milburn has…
I wonder what Milburn will be thinking right now. Has he got the guts? Do the Conservatives want him to mount a challenge and lose? Will the Blairites come back out of the closet?
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
137, 146 - clearly the Guardian didn’t get as far back in the pb archives as this:
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/12/23/guest-slot-do-governments-always-recover-in-the-polls/
148.
Randall - no longer there. Was reprimanded for wearing Union Jack cufflinks on air !
Gilligan - no longer there. Long story. Turned out to be correct.
Neil - only allowed on Beeb 2 and after 11.30 - while lesser men get the prime time.
Peston - his card is marked for the NRK fiasco. Don’t go walking alone Robert..
Interesting omission on BBC News online:
“A poll for the ComRes suggests turnout will be higher than the 60% achieved at the last election. Between 15 and 18 May the company interviewed 1,001 adults living in the constituency.”
Er, so what did the poll actually say re. voting intentions??????
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7413176.stm
157 zzzzzz Neil is on the telly every lunchtime BTW. Nick Robinson also was national chair of the Young Conservatives. Hardly a monoculture is it?
When will we have a first idea of turnout in C&W? Any PBers on site to fill us up on this?
Final C & N vote share predcition
Con 50%,Lab 29%,Lib 16%,Oth 5%.
rogerh
Phew, B&B up 3p this morning.
158. Oooh lunchtime - my god the pinnacle of tv. Bet Dimblebore wishes he had that gig.
157.Has there been some kind of swap at the BBC, I noticed that Peston pops up on Newsnight now, while the lassie that used to do it appears on the BBC main news now?
158.I remember years ago friends of mine laughing fondly when they remembered the political persuasion of another political journalist who still works for one of the news channels. He was described as a “raving Trot” as a student, don’t see any lingering resemblance of that these days though.
162 Do you mean David Dimbleby ex member of Cameron’s Bullingdon club? Another raging Guardianista I presume? I expect quite a lot of people would like to have 6 hours a week on the telly.
161
Barclays hovering around lows…
The funny thing is, many of the BBC people genuinely believe there is no bias in the corporation (a few of the old Gramsci-influenced types revel in their self-appointed role as subverters of capitalism but they are a small minority).
The problem is that they live in a metropolitan bubble in which the vast majority of the people they socialise with and work with come from a similar social background and have similar views - and they simply take it as read that a default centre-left position on every issue is normal. Over time, this tendency has become increasingly self-reinforcing.
It’s notable that the ‘exceptions’ largely have very different social backgrounds to the average BBC type.
160 rogerh. Have you had a sneek peek at my ARSE ? .. Has my ARSE got a mole ??
164, so, Cameron was Chief Secretary to the Treasury on Black Wednesday and now owns the Bullingdon Club. Anything else you’d like to declare on his behalf?:p
George Alagiah[sp, stupid name for a stupid man] said recently on the six o’clock news that he “suspect[ed] our viewers won’t be interested in internal bickering” or words to that effect. Did they ever say that when IDS was about to be knifed?
And when did Nick Robinson ever say a comparable thing about Labour when he all but accused the Tories of racism by wanting to reduce immigration? (http://biased-bbc.blogspot.com/2007/10/heres-gem-of-bbc-groupthink-from-last.html)
165. Roger called it!
127 - Agree with the figures, although not the spinning accusations (let he who is without sin…) Nick probably doesn’t have as good a personal vote as his Gedling colleague, although he’s by far the better parliamentarian IMV. He’ll benefit from a more organised Labour defence but nothing else. Any result which see the Conservatives gain more than 30-40 seats is likely to get him out.
169
I was too polite to say that…
154. Is that the 21st century equivalent of ‘installing the phone lines’? Almost.
168. Cameron formed Eton & the Bullingdon Club and invented stock market bubbles - do keep up..
159. The Beeb is saying turnout ‘expected to be above 60%’ but that appears to be based on the Comres poll ‘certainty to vote’ figure, so a big health warning on that one.
Well, Dave calls your party “David Cameron’s Conservatives” on ballot papers, I guess by your logic you think he invented the Tory party!
Why not leave arguing to the grown ups in future.
A point on yesterday’s thread - Bookies will certainly, at some time take a total hammering if they keep up this ludicrous (for them) behaviour of pay-outs before outcomes. Ending up paying many punters will either lead to their early demise, OR (more likely!), they will think up some scam to recoup their money from other punters. Can nothing be done to stop this nonsense?!
174 There are usual General turnouts in By Elections only in NI…
175, if he were the leader of Bullingdon you might have a point, but he isn’t, so you don’t.
Secondly, you seem to have developed blindsight, which mysteriously renders you unable to read or respond to two cases of blatant bias I highlighted in post 168, one of which all but accused the Conservatives of being racists.
172.Henry, I could not possible comment on that.
170. Unfortunately for Nick, I have a hunch that the Ashcroft-backed campaigning will have a bigger effect in seats like Broxtowe where there is a sizeable pool of Lib Dem voters to tap into than in other Lab-Con marginals where the Lib Dem vote is lower.
175. Oh dear, another sulky Labour person - I wonder why?
180. Intersting fact - Lord Sainsbury has given more to Labour than Ashcroft has to the Conservatives…
How the Daily Mash sees the Oil Crisis.
http://tinyurl.com/6bnjuv
175. My point is, why aren’t they reporting the percentages for each of the parties in that poll? Especially the big difference on Tory v. New Labour?
163 - I believe that Stephanie Flanders became BBC Economics Editor replacing Evan Davis who became a Today Programme Presenter. Flanders has now been replaced by Paul Mason in the role of Newsnight Economics Editor. I have no idea what role Robert Peston has, but I think it remains BBC Business Editor?
166 Economist - I also notice many people on here who seem to assume their views (fairly right-wing) are also shared by a large majority. I speak from many miles outside a “metropolitan bubble” - lived briefly in London 30 years ago. Do you live in a metropolis, Economist?
182: And oddly supermarkets like Tescos, Asda, and Morrisons have found it difficult to get planning permission in areas with only a Sainsburys, odd that.
For Martin Day, Xmas has come 6 months early
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/2008/05/21/clegggloomy.gif
184.Thanks.
175 - Rather poor form to laugh at your own jokes…even if you are a bit of a Dr. Toff yourself. But as you don’t have much to be jolly about these days, we must make allowances.
Bloody hell, they lifted my article word for word!
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/may/22/crewebyelection08.labour
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2006/06/30/guest-slot-rod-cosbys-by-election-trend-analysis/
177. It’s a private company, why should anything be done to stop it? It’s up to the shareholders and seeing as they’re posting record profits, i can’t see that happening.
Pink Tories…Blue Tories… Blue Tories…Pink Tories….
Girls! Girls! GIRLS!
192 “The remarkable feature…” has been changed to “Remarkably ….”
192. I’d have a word if I were you Rod.
189 – Now now, stop picking on Jonathon, can’t you see he’s suffering a cognitive dissident episode.
Cheer up matey, if you can’t have Crewe & Nantwich, have a screw and a sandwich instead.
192 It seems that a hefty donation to Rod Crosby and to pb.com is called for from the pinching, plagiarising Guardian.
192.
A weird coincidence: Ilford North (mentioned in the Guardian articl) is my home constituency!
192 Be interested in your view on 144.
Is it just me or are the betting odds getting more of a mention these days in political stories. Time for one of the nationals to snap up Mike by giving him his own regular column methinks, how many go straight to this site to see what the bell weather story of the day is?
187. No.
192, Ridicule is always most effective. Private Eye I’m sure would be most keen to hear of this.
164: Is that a joke? Dimbleby was like the Cheshire cat presenting the 97 election, couldn’t disguise his glee!
There’s also Naugthie’s “we” slip when talking to a government member.
187. It is part of the human condition that everyone thinks their views are a majority view. I think most so-called “BBC bias” is a function of all the reporters living in west London. I’m sure they genuinely think of themselves as neutral, but they simply don’t know what others think. For the record, I don’t think it is as biased to the left as people on here make out - if it was the same people would not still be using it as a primary source of quotes and news stories.
Same attitude between voters in northern cities and southern shires - each is naturally inclined to one party so strongly that they literally cannot believe that the other could vote in “the enemy”. In reality their day-to-day concerns are so different it is not surprising that they reach different conclusions politically.
188 Ralph. Are you suggesting that Conservative councils have a pro Sainsbury bias ?? … Odd that !!
200. I think the analysis is potentially flawed, in that they aren’t comparing like with like. They should be comparing the 2008 locals with the 2003/4 locals for signs of tactical voting. The LDs have had strong local results for years in some of the seats mentioned, but don’t deliver in a general election.
But I think local elections aren’t really good pointers to general elections anyhow, except in terms of broad movements. Turnouts are too low, and the few who bother to vote are often influenced by local issues.
201 And not just mike. RodCrosby or Morus or David Herdson have much more interesting things to say than the bloody Guardian’s political correspondents.
There’s even room for the less than stellar contributors.
Imagine Gabble’s “Column of the Day” — that would do a lot to cheer everyone up.
201. you could argue that focussing on a newspaper column would be a mistake for Mike as it is a matter of time before sites like this are more influential than national newspapers.
209 - Yes but this is a fairly niche site wheras a newspaper is more generalist.
Mike
I work in Parliament, and have just overheard two Labour MPs quietly discussing Labour’s private polling for the C&N by-election. Apparently, they believe it will be 1,500 majority for the Tories, which they said ‘wasn’t that bad considering’… I have the names of the two MPs if you want them.
209 - One of the things I most like about this site is that it has a wide span of highly articulate, well-informed opinion which almost always leaves me with something to think about. My impression is that it is read quite closely by quite a lot of journalists. Rod Crosby’s experience is merely an extreme example of the plagiarism of ideas from here.
201. I for one have long since stopped reading the political columns in the papers. All the news is reported more quickly on here, with far better analysis and great betting tips.
Plus the entertainment value of Roger, Gabble, Mark Senior etc.
210. at the moment, yes
208. “Mystic Roger predicts…”
PB is a fairly ‘niche’ site; but the debate on here is far from ‘niche.’ There are discussions on betting, but usually it’s a place to opine about politics. This, I feel, actually lends to the betting aspects, as it allows the punters on here to get a sample of the opinion as they see it.
it’s very true, we are sometimes 2 or 3 days ahead. i held out against blogs and getting my news online for ages but now when i read the newspapers it is purely for digest, not up to date “News”.
Interesting that the left leaning commentariat has decided that the Toff campaign in C&N was essentially sound, but poorly delivered; see Jonathan Freedland yesterday (Guardian, sorry don’t have the link to hand) and Steve Richards today.
http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/steve-richards/steve-richards-it-was-not-wrong-to-attack-tory-toffs-but-labour-was-so-clumsy-they-have-blown-it-832102.html
This is one of the reasons why the MSM is losing readers to sites like this one. Our left leaning posters are more aware of the reality on the ground than the Richards and Freedlands of this world.
216. Here’s the Freedland link;
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2008/may/21/conservatives.labour
214 - Indeed, I think that there are more people who come here simply to discuss than come here to get tips. I would bet but can’t shoulder the losses (or the rantings of a puritanical family).
192 They lifted a fair chunk of the article I did last Thursday in Sunday’s Observer.
216, it’s a stupid move. I concur Labour were clumsier than a surgeon with Parkinsons but it’s morally wrong to say “Your parents are too wealthy for you to be a good politician”.
Super-amusing to see that Dunwoody’s toffier than Timpsin though:p
218. the discussion often gives away the fundamental strength or weakness of an argument that is perceived to underlie a price action.
217, headline reads:
“Attacks on toffs will ring hollow until Labour proves its meritocratic mettle”
So, until Labour proves it believes in meritocracy its attacks based on background won’t work? Is it me or is that completely irrational?
You believe in meritocracy (ie best man for the job, all else is irrelevent) or you don’t.
You can’t possibly say “I believe in meritocracy, except for wealthy people who are evil toffs.”
220 - I love that metaphor!
216
Yes I saw that.
The problem with a “well delivered” toff campaign is that it would expose the authors as toffs as well..
217 Danny Finklestein hit the nail on the head when he said most people like genuine toffs, but they dislike estate agents in pin-striped suits. They certainly prefer toffs who are unashamed about their background to champagne socialists.
Apparantly Brown is to blame mid-term blues for the by-election loss, and state that there is ‘no great enthusiasm’ for Cameron. It reminds me of the whole ‘New Labour, New Danger’ phase of the last Conservative government desperately saying to themselves ‘Labour will be seen through, Labour WILL be seen through’ as the tidal wave subsumed them.
Where is Belotti now?
217. Freedland claims the Tory front bench team recently had 14 old Etonians, surely this is some exaggeration. Or is he taking a very wide view of front bench?
Any other views on 207 and Locals.
222. That is missing the point of the ‘toffs’ argument (understandable considering how clumsily it has been delivered recently).
The argument is that we do not live in a meritocracy, which is why is in a position of power thanks to X money, Y family name, Z contacts. The implication then being “we are the party who can sort it out and provide a true meritocracy”
In reality it always boils down to negative personal attacks on candidates based on their dissimilarity to the lowest common denominator of the electorate - but there is a more serious and worthy argument hiding underneath, somewhere!
226. Indeed. After the complete failure of that political strategy (and it was a complete failure), you’d have thought that it’d be the last thing Brown was trying to emulate.
226. I hope so - denail is the last thing NuLab needs at the moment.
228 - Nicholas Soames counts triple.
225. that is quite a generalisation - I think it is fair to say that most people are prepared to judge on character, giving a ‘toff’ a fair go if they are also a nice guy, despite possible initial suspicion.
Obvious hypocrites and estate agent types are more likely to come across as not nice people.
49.
Nick P you may well be in a minority come Friday about not expecting nor welcoming a leadership bid.
I would expect 165 anxious NuLabour MP’s to demand one!!!!!
Extract from Bloomberg.com
If Labour holds Crewe, Brown, 57, will be able to say the decision last week to give a 2.7 billion-pound ($5.3 billion) emergency tax cut to 22 million voters stopped his slide. A loss would have Labour lawmakers wondering whether Brown is putting their jobs in peril. In their last elections, 165 Labour members of Parliament won with margins smaller than the 16 percentage- point edge Dunwoody enjoyed in her 2005 victory.
“It could be extremely bad for Brown,” said Justin Fisher, professor of politics at Brunel University in London. “If it’s a thumping Conservative win, it’s likely to reignite questions about his leadership. Labour members of Parliament are worried about their seats.”
Are you listening Gord?
230
Of course a “toffs” strategy works if you have reduced social mobility.
So of course it makes sense…
Any word on turnout so far? Has Nick Clegg’s hidden Zombie Army been seen rising from the grave to head to the polls? Has ANYONE admitted to voting Labour yet today? Is the Totty Party candidate back on her feet? Has anyone actually voted in top hat and tails (damn - if only I was registered in that constituency….!!!)
These are the things we want to know….
232. ‘denail’ is exactly what Labour are going to get later on…hands and feet
Technical Site point. Does anyone else find the expanding banner ad from “Standpoint” really annoying?
227 - unfortunately having helped ruin Brighton and Hove Albion he is still hanging around Lib Dem circles like a lost poodle.
239, yes.
On the toffs issue, I think Edward Timpson has played it very well. Just standing by and letting Dunwoody make a fool of herself. He’s looked very dignified and avoiding Paxman on Tues night was very wise.
238 That will be when they get “Crewe-cufied”, then?
From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Bellotti
“David Frank Bellotti (born August 13, 1943) is a Liberal Democrat politician in the United Kingdom who was Member of Parliament (MP) for the Eastbourne constituency from 1990 to 1992.
“Bellotti first contested the Eastbourne seat at the 1979 general election, subsequently fighting Lewes in the 1983 and 1987 general elections under the Liberal banner. He then won the parliamentary seat of Eastbourne for the Liberal Democrats in the Eastbourne by-election following the assassination of Conservative MP Ian Gow by the Provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA). Two years later Bellotti was defeated by Nigel Waterson in the 1992 general election in which John Major’s Conservative Party was re-elected.
“David Bellotti returned to local government, regaining a seat on the council. He then became CEO of Brighton & Hove Albion, a position which gained him much local notoriety due to the sale of the Goldstone Ground after the board could no longer deal with the amount of debt the club incurred in the previous decade. David Bellotti’s involvement continued with Brighton and Hove Albion with the club relocating to Gillingham, he finally left after Bill Archer was finally bought out by the Dick Knight Consortium. For a time he was also the chairman of the Sussex police authority.
“Following the controversy over Brighton and Hove Albion, members of the Liberal Democrats in Eastbourne deselected him as candidate for the Park ward of East Sussex County Council.
“After leaving the football club and losing his council seat Bellotti moved to Bath and became election agent for Don Foster MP. In May 2003 David Bellotti was elected councillor for Lyncombe ward on Bath and North East Somerset council and was re-elected in May 2007. On 8 May 2008 he was appointed as Chairman of the Council for 2008/9.”
One thing we haven’t discussed is the reaction of the press and broadcasters to the C&N result and its impact on Brown. Could this be the moment for a couple of ‘In the name of God, go!’ headlines?
I can see the Sun headlining ‘Crewe says change the Captain’, with a sub-head of ‘Who’s got the guts to put Brown out of his misery?’.
Once the wind is in the sails, Brown could be swept away.
My best guess:
1. C&N Tory victory with symbolic 50%+ of the vote.
2. Clarke and Byers write for the Mail and Mirror that - reluctantly they will challenge Brown if no-one else puts themselves forward.
3. Miliband disappears to New York ‘for a conference’.
4. Jack Straw slips into Downing Street by the back door.
5. Sarah Brown ‘lets slip’ to the Mail’s Amanda Platell that Gordon had ‘a scare’ recently.
6. Brown admitted to Manchester hospital (shortly after watching England collapse to 47-9 against New Zealand).
7. Straw appointed as caretaker leader, after Brown issues press release from his hospital bed… “In the long term interests of the country, and to ensure the hard decisions continue to be taken, I have decided to put the country first and stand down because of ill health.”
8. Miliband returns from New York to find that, surprise, surprise someone has installed 25 phone lines in his office in his absence.
9. Lord Sainsbury bankrolls Miliband’s leadership campaign.
10. A bitter fight between Harman, Miliband and Cruddas ends with Cruddas winning in the vote at Conference. “I was elected as Old Labour and I will govern as Old Labour.”
11. The Miliband brothers, Byers, Milburn and Clarke break with Old Labour and set up the New SDP, with Danny Finkelstein as senior strategist.
12. Cruddas calls an election in March 2009:
Result:
Con 45%
New SDP 20%
Old Lab 15%
LibDems 10%
SNP 4%
Others 6%
239. On a lot of sites as well. Must be spending some money.
On topic, I don’t think Eastbourne was the tipping point for Thatcher.
By postwar standards, the LibDem performance was unexceptional, although the Tories campaign was a disaster [not voting Tory is a vote for the IRA..]
I think Thatcher’s fate was sealed by Mid-Staffs, a 21.3% swing to Labour. Eastbourne and Bradford North were merely confirmatory…
I state my swing benchmarks again for C&N.
>20%: disastrous. The Tories are on course for a comfortable majority. Something must be done, and the obvious thing is to dump Brown.
>15%: very bad. The Tories are on course for largest party, but a majority is unlikely. Labour could possibly recover enough to remain the largest party, more likely with a new leader.
>10%: poor, but not unrecoverable. Labour will be secretly relieved. Labour on course to remain largest party in a Hung Parliament.
<10%: Labour will break-out the champagne. Cameron can’t deliver real votes in ballot boxes, even in the most favourable circumstances for him.
My guess is a swing of about 15%, but who knows? However, combined with a high turnout, it will be as bad as a 20% swing on a low turnout….
220: Dunwoody not toffier than Timpson, shock! Ken Dodd and John Prescott are in Burke’s!! As our various used car salesmen and one-horse firms. Don’t believe a word Guido says. Probably a silly campaign nonetheless.
239.Yes, but it gets it noticed. And if that increases the revenue to PB.com, then all the better.
the left are the only ones really obsessed with class. but even they claimed the country had, yer know, put all that sorta stuff behind it, in 1997.
Sadly now they are going back down the dumper (and one of the reasons why) is that they have played to their own prejudices - an imaginary view of what class is, they are the ones who are obsessed with grading people by class. Just like the other types of failed “identity politics” they engage in, in an attempt to divide and rule people, its time has passed, and it won’t work.
245 a perfect analysis. and very likely to happen in my opinion
245- Baskerville- riveting. You must try your hand at crime writing
245 Cruddas isn’t “old Labour”.
By the way- it was utterly ridiculous for Labour to choose the dead MP’s daughter- a mixture of weirdness (of the skin creepy variety), nepotism, political aristocracy, gross opportunism all round into poor Tasmin’s buck front teeth.
And while I am on the rant, the toff campaign was more ludicrous. As sean fear rightly point out the British public love their toffs. Couldn’t sell a “Hello” without them.
And for the record I am not principally opposed to Toffs. My downstairs neighbour is a Lord and a very agreeable man. I just hate the idea of our education being so front loaded that one or two schools can populate the Tory shadow cabinet, and its cabal of advisers.
254. Blimey Tyson I agree with you
252. But we all know whodunnit in this case - McBankrupt
253. Poetic licence, Jonathan.
255
Whats the consensus on the “presumed” Conservative majority in the by election. I went for just short of 6k, but then I am an optimist…
206: The government handles appeals and can over rule council decisions.
239 Yes
254 Good post.
It’s also ridiculous to go in for toff-bashing, when you’re very privileged yourself. Take Jonathan Freedland, for example. He was in my sixth form at a good private school, UCS, and his father was a Director of the BBC. Not a toff, exactly, but certainly a much more privileged background than that which most people come from.
254. I think most Tories would agree with that Tyson.
Ahh, 1990. Those were the days when even The Corrective Party under the fine helmsmanship of Lady Whiplash could beat the National Front/BNP.
How times have changed.
245 I love the idea of Jack Straw climbing a step ladder and clambering over the wall to the back door of No 10, at midnight wearing a black roll neck top and carrying a packet of digestives to help console Gordon as he conveys the news that absolutely nobody wants a Brown premiership.
239 terrible advert - really annoying and guaranteed to ensure I won’t buy the magazine
More from the bloody Guardian — this time Andrew Sparrow’s blog.
“…. when I read Mike Smithson’s latest posting at politicalbetting.com. He asks: Will today be Gordon’s Eastbourne? The sensational Conservative byelection defeat in Eastbourne in the autumn of 1990 contributed to the toppling of Margaret Thatcher. Smithson has written an interesting post …..”
Question: Has any Guardian journalist ever had an original idea in their life?
256- an anecdote for my fellow pbER’s- I had a blazing argument with my very old friend a few weeks ago. She was adamant that Gordon was maligned and he was the man to lead Labour. She had even rejoined the Labour party after his succession. Of course I gave her the response that is well known here. Eventually her husband had to separate us.
Well the other day I received a postcard from her saying nothing more than “You were right about Gordon!”
I tell you one thing- if Gordon is starting to lose loyalists like my friend he will have real problems with the grassroots of the party, all of whom will be rounding on their local Labour MP’s, candidates, chairman saying that they cannot stand him any longer.
Without broad party support Gordon is a dead man walking.
176. Because we are quite happy to let byou have your say.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7414279.stm
Following yesterday’s data protection problem, another Tory scandal today!
264 - to use Mr Sparrow’s own words: “I think it was Andrew Marr who said that if you ever read a headline in a newspaper with a question mark at the end of it, it’s best to assume that the answer is no.”
222. Have to agree, pushing the toff angle has made labour look prejudice, more interested in the social class of people than what they have done or acheived. The tories in contrast haven’t attacked Tamsin Dunwoody’s background or social class, or even mentioned it.
264 - “Has any Guardian journalist ever had an original idea in their life?”
Yes, the cod fax that sank Aitken.
260. I don’t think it is necessarily ridiculous for those with a privileged background to bash “toffs” - but it must be a strong argument. In this specific case Timpson shows much more sign of having got where he is through talent and dedication than Dunwoody, so it looks a bit ridiculous.
One for Punter - more analysis of LE results in Wales - this time Swansea:
Swansea East: Lab 43, LDs 27, others all trailing - Labour hold
Swansea West: LD 42, Lab 26, others trailing - LD gain
Gower: Con 24, Lab 23, PC 9, LD 8, Independents 31!! - Difficult to predict which way the Independents will vote at a GE - definitely a seat to watch.
Ian Martin of the Telgraph thinks Brown should stay and has an action plan for him…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/05/22/do2201.xml
The chances of it being followed? Nil?
269 Indeed. The temptation to go anti Welsh in Cheshire must have been huge…..
268 - Applies double if it’s the Daily Mail
274. I meant mentioning her background of not being from the local area, having few ties apart from her mum, and coming from a posher background than Timpson.
260- sean- actually (hard knot in my stomach), Cameron plays the privilege line very well.
The “I went to fantastic school that gave me endless possibilities, and I want to share this experience with all children” is exactly the way to play it.
Personally he should embrace his background. Wasn’t his fault he was born into landed gentry.
My classmate was Graham Brady- a working class kid from Timperley. Always a bit odd, not cool, very quiet and unassuming, buck teeth reminscent of Tasmin’s, a bit of the perpetual virgin about him.
Now he has a great set of nashers and talks like someone rammed a plum down his throat, and he has that Peter Hain orange sun tan. Probably though still married the first shag of his life- those sort always do.
I think you once referred to working class Tories morphing into Sir Humphrey Bumbletums- well something like that. Made me laugh, and in alot of cases quite true I guess.
254 - Oh myth-busters time again. The Tory Shadow Cabinet, which by my reckoning comprises 25 members, contains two Etonians (Cameron and Letwin) and just under half its members were educated in the state/former direct grant schools.
Others will do the rigorous checking (if they’re that sad) but I’m fairly sure this is the lowest proportions of OEs than in any, yes any, actual or shadow Tory Cabinet.
I think the Labour campaign in Crewe has been appalling. The Tory one in Eastbourne was not so bad; it was just a weak candidate.
Gordon may therefore survive by blaming, and sacking those responsible for the failure.
However, leaders in decline do tend to scapegoat and sack people - I think of Yeltsin and Charles Kennedy.
Anyway, 7000 majority for the Tories; LD just behind Labour, I’d say.
272 What do you think of 207’s arguments on Local.
Dear Guardian journos,
Got writers’ block? Editor giving you sh1t about another missed deadline? Fear not. Just let us know the topic, how many words you need and when you have to file copy - and you can be sure we will do the rest for you. We can even proof it for you!
Sometimes, if you can’t think of a topic, we can even provide that for you too…
Just send us the nod under the name of “Phillipa Space”. We’ll do the rest!
Your chums,
The public-spirited folk at PB.com*
(*well, most of them. A few sour-pusses have gone off to see their lawyers. Miserable scrotes, huh?)
277 - How many Etonians in Major’s last cabinet? I think it was just Hurd.
Anyone on the ground in C&N got an update? Anyone at all?!
277- John 0- have a look at the profile of Cameron’s close team, the people who yield all the power in your party. The likes of Liam Fox, Dickie Davis (and the rest of the shadow cabinet) who are peripherel to where the centre of the Tory party now lies (good thing too I can hear many people saying).
That said the people Cameron trusts are obviously going to be people who have shared his background, his outlook on life, his experiences. Hardly going to surround himself with a cohort of Glaswegian shipworkers is he now?
277 Including the House of Lords, you probably get 14 Old Etonians on the front bench, but there are probably at least 100 front benchers, in both Houses combined. Strictly speaking, I think Freedland is correct, although quite misleading at the same time.
284 Do you think 207 is right on Locals.
22. Interesting analysis, but Labour hasn’t had anything like the Poll Tax. Iraq, I suppose, but that was why Tony went.
The 2 big disasters since - the deferred election and the 10p tax debacle, are both down to Gordon, so it is a personality not a policy problem.
Labour needs to be ruthless because there is nothing to lose at this point. I hope that Clarke or Milburn will put down a challenge, that Gordon will offer to resign and then there could be a free-for-all for the leadership.
But will it happen? The successful deal on temporary and agency workers will encourage the unions to give Gordon yet another chance and he might stay on life support for while yet.
277 John O. Utterly disgraceful that the Conservative Party, let alone the Shadow Cabinet, is no longer stuffed full of bods from Slough Comp.
Standards are clearly slipping …. I heard the other day that some Conservative MP’s had to buy their own furniture !! …. at Land of Leather too !!
Marrquee Mark - “We can even proof it for you!” :):
Oh no we cant, most PDers are as bad as a Grauniad sub editor after a good lunch!
287 See 272 would you have SW as LD gain now.
…and I have forgotten how to do smileys
and to prove the point meant PBers!!!
Morning All,
The person who put £40,000 on the Conservatives at 1/16 has now put another £50,000 on at 1/25
http://www.williamhillmedia.com/index_template.asp?file=10102
291 Want a job at the Guardian?
287 “at Land of Leather too !!”
Jack, it wasn’t furniture….
Why on earth is the Crewe declaration at 3am? F&DW was midnight IIRC. What are they doing waiting for Postal votes from Florida.
192. - In the US that would be a resigning offence in most major newspapers - they treat ethics a lot more seriously than our press [and generally news is treated seriously as well].
Incidentally - when the Guardian refers to the “Analysis undertaken by political betting websites” - how many websites are they referring to? Even under our poor journalistic standards, the cliche used to be taking one source is plagarism, several is research.
If I was you, I would certainly contact the readers editor there.
295, perhaps the same berks who ‘handled’ the Mayoral count are involved?
294 “The person who put £40,000 on the Conservatives at 1/16 has now put another £50,000 on at 1/25″
“we don’t know who he was, but he had on a pair of very clean, newly repaired shoes.”
297. So the result is too late for the morning papers.
296 MM. Well quite …. any self respecting Conservative MP has a dungeon …. and as for the Tory whips office !!
………………………………
New IBD/TIP Presidential Poll :
McCain 39% .. Clinton 44%
McCain 37% .. Obama 48%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/pollpic052208.pdf
297. Apparently the local election results from C&N were very slow too.
302 Not looking good for McCain. Any rumours on the GOP-VP front?
New Quinnipiac Presidential Polls for Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida :
Pennsylvania -
McCain 37% .. Clinton 50%
McCain 40% .. Obama 46%
Ohio -
McCain 41% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 44% .. Obama 40%
Florida -
McCain 41% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 45% .. Obama 41%
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1180
Perhpa sC&N has a lot of rural villages to count?
Will the C&N count and result be on TV tonight?
304 Jonathan. More indifferent news for McCain :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10550.html
Tyson, not sure about that. The Tory chief whip who Cameron chose is an ex-miner and Hilton was the son of refugees wasn’t he, and he is the only one who Cameron listens to so intently as George.
307- No ARSE prediction for C&W?
192, 220. I had a similar experience in 2005 when the BBC website had copied and pasted some info on new Scottish seats that I had done for the alba website, and then claiming copyright on it. I contacted the BBC, alerting them to the fact. They acted on it immediately, adding my name to the website, and muttering something about their researcher (presumably ex-researcher after that incident). I’d have sued otherwise.
Ironically, all this happened within a fortnight of a Radio 4 programme called ‘Degrees for Sale’ about the culture of tailor-made essays and web-based plagiarism in higher education!
A local news interview of GG:
http://www.chesterchronicle.co.uk/videos-pics/chester-videos/2008/05/21/by-election-special-gemma-garrett-59067-20943480/
This girl has got potential! I think Nick Clegg should propose a merger for the LDs and the “Beauties for Britain Party”. Perhaps thhe merged party could be called the “Beautiful Liberal Democrat Party” or the “Liberal Beauties for British Democrats Party”?
311, I think she’d be ashamed to merge with someone so naive:p
311. See post 189 - Nick has some way to go
282 - re: Guardian journos.
We should have a quest to see what would be the most ridiculous piece of analysis they would steal.
305 - At the moment I have Ohio as leaning McCain and Florida probable McCain in my match ups, if Obama is now getting to within 4% in each that puts him in a better position. Pennsylvania, on my list, is down as probable Obama.
Have just got off the ‘phone knocking up Crewe for the Conservatives.
It’s a very small and wholly unrepresentative sample and I don’t know whether the ward I was calling was solid Labour etc. etc. but I can only presume the list I was given was of people who had indicated they would vote Conservative.
I asked all of those I spoke to a. If they had voted and b. if it was a rude question to ask them whether they had / would vote for Timpson.
The vast majority said they preferred not to say. Anyone who’s done any work like this over the years knows exactly what that means.
As I say, this information comes with a huge caveat attached but I thought it was interesting nevertheless.
248 RodCrosby benchmarks for Conservative swing.
I think you have it about right.
>20%: disastrous for Labour.
>15%: very bad.
etc
That said the Conservative voter data loss may hurt the percentages and whereas 2 days ago I started to think that 20% swing might be possible, today I think the swing will probably be in the 10% range if this information gets into the hands of all the voters.
314 ukpaul. My provisional map has Ohio and Florida as Toss-Up (0%-5%) and Pennsylvania as Likely Dem (5%-10%).
309 ChrisD. You Frenchman always keen for a bit of my ARSE. !!
Later this afternoon Chris.
re 248, too. Yes, agreed. Shame it’s neither close nor do Betfair offer a market on the majority…upon what to bet?
Could back Tories most seats at 1.4 and hunger Parl @ 3.4. Both could well happen and one is pretty much a certainty.
317 Sorry Likely Dem/Rep is 6%-10%.
317 Ooppppsss Chris from Paris NOT ChrisD !!
A friend of mine is up in Cheshire today and says everywhere he goes all he can see is red flags and banners.
215 - “The vast majority said they preferred not to say. Anyone who’s done any work like this over the years knows exactly what that means”
Looking good for Labour.
323 - red flags? That’s a load of bull!
325 - I think there might have a been a football match on last night…
[248] - I agree on your point about turnout. That was one of the things that made the Mayoral result so bad for Labour.
I’m also going to keep an eye on the actual voter numbers. With a large swing the Tories would increase their number of voters even on a reduced turnout. That sort of thing would be a very good sign for the Tories (more’s the pity).
Cons now 1.01 for C&N
Labour 65..
317- Excellent. Jack’s ARSE is going to make an appearance tonight. And i thought that dodgey Italian bloke hanging around Crewe train station was up to no good!
Is your partner in crime helping you out
Well, a high turnout was meant to be bad for Boris, instead more people voted for him.
315. 324. Aha out come the astroturfers, right on cue. How tedious.
Just got up this morning ater 5 hours on the phone between 2am and 7am!
I thought i would just phone up ouss and make sure the labour vote is turning ot today. I got a local telephone directory on my visit to crewe the other day!
My telephone bill will be huge!
Labour are not very popula in C & N:
Good morning i said, I am Martin Day calling from the Labour party! At this point i got F*ck off i am not voting Labour today!
322. See 189.
332. Should say: Just got up after this morning 5 hours on the phone between 2am and 7am!
I thought i would just phone up voters and make sure the labour vote is turning ot today. I got a local telephone directory on my visit to crewe the other day!
320- Your ARSE is always appreciated by Parisian connoisseurs…
315. In my experience, if you preceed your question with..
“I know it’s terribly rude of me to ask.. but..”
“Or, do forgive me my good man, but..”
“Would it be improper of me to ask you…”
“I’m terribly sorry to intrude, but…”
Or ANYTHING awfully English like that, people realise you feel awkward asking and will feel comfortable in politely declining your request.
You need to be blunt: “Have you voted?”; “Who did you vote for?”
The short, abrupt question illicits a response.
If that fails, you can try; “If I’d been looking over your shoulder in the voting booth, would I have been pleased, or displeased?”
That often works.
For the record, Casino doesn’t think this is going to be the Labour wipeout everyone thinks it is.
Modest Tory victory of 2,000-3,000 votes.
#332: I am assuming this is a poor joke. If not you are a contemptible little sh1t.
334 Genius! (for once)
A Tory majority of 2000 is a Labour wipeout considering the starting point.
Conhome leaking an early “exit poll”
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/goldlist/2008/05/first-cn-exit-p.html
329/335 Tyson/Chris. You’re both such excellent judges !!
Andrea and Jack W - The Best Political Team Not On Television
…………………………
And as a treat a little preview of the provisional ARSE (BUTT) numbers for the US General Election, 270 to win :
McCain 146 .. Obama 228 .. Toss-Up 164.
337 Or both?
340. Haven’t those gingerbread polls have proved surprisingly accurate in the past? Perhaps Rod could give us an analysis.
317) Knew I’d gone wrong somewhere, I thought I had married a bonny Scots lassie.
@337:
Contemptible shit? Nonsense. Surely it’s perfecly fair game viewed in light of Labour’s ‘robust’ campaign?
Though, I SECRETLY SUSPECT that Mr. Day may have been joking. You may have read of humour elsewhere. I understand it’s very popular with de yoot these days.
343 I think the Gingerbread Man Poll is a result of SOAMES. Jack W could probably confirm, but he was certainly seen in the Constituency.
343 - I’m now haunted by the prospect of the BBC using gingerbread props on their next election night coverage
347. They had Charles Kennedy last time.
@347:
Well, let’s be honest. If the BBC’s entire political team were replaced with spiced confections and sundry inanimate bread products, we’d see a huge jump in the quality of their output.
That said, of course, Dimblebore already demonstrates most of the qualities I associate with inanimate bread products.
344 fitaloon.
346 Augustus. Absolutely. SOAMES rampaging through various eateries like a locust on speed has left the poor folk of Crewe and Nantwich feeling like extras from a war on want ad !!
i see tonights question time has that ginger idiot blears on the panel. why bother? has there ever been a more insignificant vacuous twit than her in politics?
349, what they need to do is pool top quality resources for electoral coverage. Namely: Jenny Scott, Laura Kuennsberg[sp] and Sophie Raworth.
351, you clearly haven’t looked at who’s in the Cabinet:p
348 TGoHF.
…. or Gingerbreadwinemen.
If voters in a previously solid Labour area had told the Conservative earlier in the campaign that they would vote for them. Does their reluctance to say now mean they have been swayed by Milord Rennard’s electoral skills?
Once you have decided not to vote Labour (the hard part if your parents and grandparents always voted Labour) then the Lib Dem candidate (and literature) was much more attractive than the Conservatives.
Perhaps the Con Gingerbread men were Soames size and the Labour were Blears size ?
Just looked at who else is on QT. Christ, they’ve got the worst people imaginable (Ed Balls excepted).
Blears for Labour, Francis “I’m so depressing the Verve makes me happier” Maude and Simon “Slimy” Hughes.
I wonder: does QT ask for specific politicians or just ask the parties to put someone up?
353 fair point but all we are going to hear is that “we have listened and learned and will reconnect with voters and were’nt the Tories rubbish”. utterly pointless
twit is polite!
@355:
More attractive? Really? Did you see her *teeth*? NO.
Mind you, ever since we learned of Casino Royale’s thing for Ruth Kelly, I have realised that the denizens of PBC have rather unconventional tastes.
Chacun a son gout.
I thought this was quite good from ConHome - even the road signs are with us!
Owen Paterson MP is also hopeful for a good turnout from the area of Crewe that he was leafletting from 3.45am to 8.15am this morning. His patch included Cameron Avenue, Osbourne Grove and Ashcroft Avenue.
I’m with Casino - I think we’ll win but not by anything like the margin some people in the media are talking about.
355. Have you put your money on then? The odds are very enticing.
What Mr Day really meant to post was that he had been also phoning voters between 19.45 and 22.20 last night.
355. See 189 !
McCain’s Pastor Problem MkII :
http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/story?id=4905624&page=1
Pushing things through letterboxes in the middle of the night seems a sure fire way to alienate dog owners, as the dog then goes nuts barking and wakes the rest of the house up.
I remember working on the Knowsley North byelection years ago when the Liberal candidate (Rosie Cooper, now Labour MP for Skelmersdale) thought it would be a good idea to drive round Kirkby at first light with a loud hailer. Motivated more than a few Labour voters to turn out..
357: From what I hear the give the producers a list and they pick the one for the specific programme.
361: ‘I think we’ll win but not by anything like the margin some people in the media are talking about’
We’re in the ‘ramp up the size of the Tory win so we can say how bad the result is for them when they do worse’ stage. One thing is a certainty some Labour idiot will say it isn’t as bad as they thought it would be in the next 24 hours.
168 Not an Arse poll
Just off the top of the head
rogerh
365 - So, Parsley wants to destroy muslims and Hagee hates Jews and Catholics. Is there anyone else that McCain has been courting to complete the set? Surely they can find a Hindu hater or a Buddhist basher somewhere?
357. I think QT invite who they want - they would rather have a known ‘name’ than some-one who the parties might want to promote.
The patronising Hazel Blears will say “well actually if yer look at it, the Tawries had a much worse record than us , 15 % interest rates , millions out of work, your labour government is much better actually and we are helping the poor, whereas we all know Tory cuts would be the order of the day if they got into power”. Cue clapping, innit. Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Could the whole of the constituency have been party to a giant betting scam? They just wanted to make enough from a Labour win to pay off their mortgages….
” Prime Minister Gordon Brown has vowed to ensure the London 2012 Olympic Games are delivered on time and on budget after visiting the Olympic Park for the first time.” AFP
And was the Mayor invited to this wonderful event? And do we believe the Anti-Micawber will keep in to budget? Ha.
Gordon’s been to the Olympic site? Phone Sydney, get them on standby for 2012….
Perhaps the Dial a Llama could exorcise the site whilst he’s in town.
@366:
I agree with you. I think Dawn Raids are an idiotic Lib Dem ‘innovation’, and one which we can well do without. Certainly my local party abandoned them for precisely the reason you gave.
Interested to see the bit about David Bellotti. I stood against hin when he was LibDem candidate for E Sussex in the 1995 Euros. I thought he was pretty good and was surprised when his career went downhill. Ironically it probably did me more good tham him, even though I came 3rd, as it gave me some relevant recent experience to quote in the 1996 selection round.
” Prime Minister Gordon Brown has vowed to ensure the London 2012 Olympic Games are delivered on time and on budget after visiting the Olympic Park for the first time.” AFP
Or
“Depressed looking man seen in park, public asked to steer clear”.
I stand to win £700 if Lib Dems win (on an investment of £3)!
Still spending on the wrong things after all these years.
“Home Secretary Jacqui Smith has promised 5 million pounds to combat violent crime following the success of a project to tackle gangs which led to a 51 percent drop in gun-related injuries.
The extra money will be earmarked for police, local authorities and communities in 10 “hotspots” in England and Wales, to provide for such measures as more stop and search programmes.”
Pay the people as you promised first, and you might get more effectiveness.
357. Do they bus the audience in for QT, in the same way that Songs of Praise rounded up all the local church choirs for that programme? QT does seem a bit too ‘orchestrated’ or organised to be wholly plausible. I was very unimpressed with C4 the other night, Snow loved the sound of his own voice, and one was left wondering what was the point of asking people to turn up, when they are just expected to sit in silence watching Snow playing interrupt the Tory.
As for a sea of Red flags, it is more likely to be due to support for Man U rather than anything else.
Something I can agree with Brown about from the Guardian:
“Gordon Brown could be on a collision course with the information commissioner after a decision to order the prime minister to release details of every person who comes to Downing Street to discuss official business, including his closest advisers and fellow cabinet ministers.”
This is not freedom of information but nosiness and encouragement to sclerotic or duplicitous government.
380. Nothing like really putting your money where your mouth is, eh?
345. It was a joke! Roll on the next by-election: the new dawn raid brings a whole new dynamic!
re 340 bl**dy hell, six Lab in Nantwich bakery. perhaps not going to be a bad as I expect!
380 Icarus. Three lottery tickets would have been a better investment than a Lib Dem win in C&N.
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NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD **** NEW THREAD ****
“Will Hillary Become A Muscle Mary?”
382 I think the BBC gets QT audiences through the political parties in the area where the programme is filmed - I’ve been offered a ticket before although I’ve never been. Any other system would presumably be open to being hijacked by one party or single-issue pressure group.
Suspect Cons majority, 11,462 at Crewe on a 56% turnout. Enough to see a challenger for PM?
Anyone else
Oh yes in the old days of requiring 12.5% to save your deposit the Lib Dems would have been lined up to lose theirs.
I do not know how they will react to the new situation.
373: I’m sure the 2013 Olympics will be bang on time.