Sean Fear’s Friday Slot
May 16th, 2008
Looking at the details of the Mayoral result?
London Elects has now released ward-level data for the Mayoral and Assembly elections. It will provide hours of fun for political anoraks such as myself, and I’ve barely scratched the surface of it. I have, however, come to several conclusions.
Firstly, Labour’s core vote strategy, which depended on portraying Johnson as a bigoted Hooray Henry, was successful across much of London. Overall, there was an average swing of 7.4% (on first preferences) across London, compared to 2004, from Livingstone to Johnson. Yet, in two boroughs, Tower Hamlets, and Newham, there were actually swings to Livingstone, of 8.9%, and 4.2% respectively, largely due to the fact that people who voted Respect in 2004, voted for Livingstone this time.
But in each borough, Johnson recorded some of the lowest increases in his overall vote share. In Brent, the swing to Johnson was kept down to 1.3%; in Hackney 1.4%; in Waltham Forest 2.6%, in Haringey 3.6%, and in Harrow, 4.6%. What all these boroughs have in common, of course, is a very high proportion of ethnic minority voters, and in particular, Muslim voters. Islamic organisations campaigned relentlessly for Livingstone. In the case of Haringey, and Hackney, a high proportion of left wing middle class voters also helped Livingstone. Had these boroughs been representative of all London, Livingstone would have won handsomely.
Secondly, it’s quite clear where Labour’s core vote strategy was completely unsuccessful. Some Conservative-inclined boroughs recorded gigantic swings to Johnson. In Havering, it was 15%; in Bexley 14.9%; in Bromley 14.2%, in Hillingdon 12.1%; in Kensington & Chelsea 10.7%, and in Wandsworth 10%. Conservative voters were highly motivated to vote for Johnson.
Thirdly, it’s quite clear among which groups Livingstone most heavily lost support, compared to 2004. White working class voters switched very heavily against him. Every ward but one on the Becontree estate, in Barking, was won by Johnson. These wards were held by Labour in 1968, and are often left uncontested by the Conservatives in local elections. New Addington and Fieldway, huge council estates in Croydon, were both won by Johnson. St. Helier, another historic Labour stronghold, in Merton, likewise fell. South Bermondsey, which has probably not elected a Conservative since before the First World War, was carried by Johnson. Indeed, Southwark as a whole recorded a swing of 10.1% to Johnson, heavily concentrated in the wards making up Simon Hughes’ Old Southwark and Bermondsey constituency, which contains both white working class voters, and many more affluent residents in riverside developments. London’s white working class voters shifted towards the Conservatives in the 1980s, but the wards I’ve just mentioned would never have been regarded as Conservative targets in that decade.
Additionally, more affluent, centrist voters, also shifted strongly against Livingstone. Richmond, and Kingston, both narrowly carried by Livingstone in 2004, showed swings to Johnson of 12% and 10.2% respectively. Wards like Winchmore Hill, Southgate Green, Brondesbury Park, and Hampstead Town, won by Livingstone, were all carried by Johnson this time. This shift, and not just high turnout among core Conservatives, also explains Johnson’s success in Wandsworth, where, again, Livingstone led in 2004.
Finally, and probably unsurprisingly, it’s clear that Jewish voters backed Johnson by an enormous margin. Garden Suburb, Golders Green, Hendon, and Edgware wards, in Barnet were all more than 30% Jewish, at the time of the 2001 census. They favoured Johnson over Livingstone by margins of 52.5%, 40.8%, 43.2%, and 50.3%, respectively, with swings ranging from 7.4% to 14.3% The one ward that Johnson carried in Hackney was Springfield, with its big Hasidic population, and it gave him a swing of 6.1%, the highest in that borough.
There was just one by-election last night, on Poole Unitary Council, Branksome East. The result was Conservative 923, Lib Dem 750, a Conservative hold, with a big swing to the Liberal Democrats.
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Thanks Sean.
So, what, if anything, does this tell us about the general election in London?
Also, whats your felling about Crewe and Nantiwhich? Will the Tories pull it off? Or will Labour hang on?
1. Very silly man. Nevertheless, HIPS are so unpopular that I doubt there will be too much outcry.
2 - I suspect it tells us little. Boris is a larger than life character, and his presence swung the assembly vote too. Most MPs are just a bit duller, and some are even duller than Paddick.
Now Crewe certainly isn’t London, but surely a strong showing by Boris amongst the white working class augurs
well for the Conservatives in C&N?
Well done Sean - another excellent article. I’ve had a look at the ward data & will aim to do another tidied-up version similar to the 2004 results. A cursory glance confirmed that Boris did indeed clean up as expected in the areas where Ken surprisingly won in 2004 such as Richmond, and also that Ken only just won Barking & Dagenham on first preferences. I think the BNP may have only won the second preference vote in two wards in B&D, Alibon and Goresbrook, but obviously full analysis will have to await a properly-formatted spreadsheet. Will also be interested to see how many wards Boris won the 2nd prefs on (none for Norris in 2004!).
Presumably he declared an interest every time he spoke in the Commons on the subject. If he didn’t he would be in very serious trouble.
On the matter of the LDs in Crewe, what they may now be focusing on is overtaking Labour into 2nd place as this may force Brown out.
Canvassing would by now give a very good insight into how far has the Labour vote crumbled since the 10p announcement.
Whilst they may now be drumming up support their blogs are bereft of feedback from their presence in Crewe and as we see on PHI their leaders see 1st place as unlikely.
Of course a sizable chunk of the votes have already been cast.
Has Boris been seen at C&N yet? Rather a lot on his plate at the moment, clearly, but would be interesting to see how he is received there.
2 - I think that if you take London along with Council wins such as Southampton and the surprising addition of Conservatives in Sunderland and parts of the North and elsewhere could we be seeing the start of a seismic shift in the demographics of the different parties support? If so the election could become predictable in terms of general outcome but unpredictable in terms of scale and individual results etc.
8. I wouldn’t be surprised if Labour fell behind the Lib-Dem’s in C&N. But what happens if they even fall behind the lovely Gemma?
8 - It will be interesting to watch the betting markets once rumours from Postal votes come out.
10. So what your saying is that we could see bigger swings in some of Labour’s safer seats as opposed to the national average, and at least a few of those swings may result in surprise losses?
8 - This would make sense, and would fit in with the Nick Clegg comments noted on the previous blog. If Gordon Brown finishes third in Crewe & Nantwich, surely that would not have been factored into the “exit Brown” market?
If the Lib Dems have not given up in C&N, is it conceivably possible they think they can push Labour into third. I can’t in all conscience see them winning it…. Apologies if this has been mentioned before?
13 - Yes
Why have labour fiddled the postal votes at C & N?
oops just seen 8 ignore 15
2. I think the GLA constituency results give a better picture of what we can expect at the next general election than the Mayoral results.
That should read “Why? Have Labour……”
8 Keep up the Conservative Central Office spinning line HF , do they pay you for this ?
Sean, good analysis, as ever. You mentioned the success, in part, of the Bigoted Hooray Henry strategy used by Labour against Johnson. I can see that the ‘Bigoted’ part must have had an effect as Livingstone polled well in areas with a high percentage of ethic minorities. However, the same can’t be said about the Hooray Henry aspect as, on your analysis, white working class areas moved very strongly over to the Tories. Perhaps this provides a good verdict on the likely effectiveness of their anti-toff strategy
By all means let Labour continue with their anti-toff strategy in C&N. It will weaken them not the Tories. Parties in decline try to shore up their core vote: the last 25% of the electorate. In the case of the Tories the issues were immigration and the EU. In the case of Labour it is chippiness and envy. The dangers for Labour from this strategy, however, are far greater than they were for the Tories.
Firstly, whereas at least the Eurosceptics had some idealism, some vision of what sort of country they wanted, even if it was one with which most of us disagreed, the Labour strategy is entirely negative What’s wrong with parents bringing up their children in a loving family and making sacrifices to give them the best start in life. What is different about vilifying someone for being born to rich parents, from victimising someone for being black? It’s obviously unfair. Consequently, it offends the idealism of activists: witness the recent complaints in the Guardian and accusations that Labour has become the nasty party.
Secondly, it leaves the Labour hierarchy open to accusations of hypocrisy. Harman, the Milliband freres and Hilary Benn all come from political dynasties. Kelly, Darling and Balls all went to elite private schools. Many in the hierarchy are rich with copper-bottomed pension schemes the rest of us can only dream about. I’m sure I’ve missed many off the list because the list is so long and the seam so rich.
So don’t get angry about the anti-toff strategy; just smile. It’s a sign of their weakness. For in the intellectual barrenness that is Labour, nowadays, only the chippiness and envy remain.
Pathetic stuff, HF (80). It is only you Tories who are spinning that the Lib Dem leadership has given up in C&N. And you say it all about twenty times. You do get very tedious, you know.
21 - how do you interpret the PoliticsHome poll then? Bearing in mind that Nick Clegg is one of the panellists?
11 If Labour comes 3rd then Brown will be gone by the end of the month.
22. I think that’s a very sound analysis. I *think* white working class voters were unmoved by the anti-toff part of Labour’s strategy, and reacted strongly against what they perceived as favouritism towards ethnic minorities. I think the anti-toff strategy was offensive to both core Conservatives and to affluent floating voters in London. So, I do think that toff-bashing certainly cost Labour voters overall.
Thanks Sean.
……………………….
New ARG primary Polls for Kentucky and Oregon :
Kentucky
Clinton 65% .. Obama 29%
Oregon
Clinton 45% .. Obama 50%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/
As was pointed out on a previous thread, Antifrank (24), at least once, there is no evidence that Nick Clegg even took part in that particular survey.
That is all the substance that you Tories have to spin from. How stupid can you get? And how stupid do you think everybody else is?
If Miss GB might pushes them into 4th. He’d be gone by the end of the week
28 - If everything is so spiffing why are your posts increasingly insulting and intemperate?
24 Simply that they don’t think that the LibDems will win Crewe and nor do I , that does not mean that you do not work hard for every single vote and the best possible result .
28 - I’m not a Tory.
10. Interesting. We could be seeing the rise of identity politics, with the Tories increasingly attracting white voters of all backgrounds while Labour is the party of ethnic minorities, a narrow stratum of white liberal lefties, and a diminishing rump of tribal working class voters. A pattern much more like that seen in the US. The Lib Dems are going to get very squeezed in this scenario, too.
26. I DON’T KNOW - I have just been rejected for a job because they thought i was a toff (Good News for Mark Senir there
)
I do think that the lower classes do hate people they percieve to be of a higher class.
22. The problem for London Labour at the next GE is not only that their anti-toff campaign failed against Boris and will certainly fail against the even less obviously toffy Cameron, but also that their racist bigot line will not hold.
Boris is not a racist and one or two years in City Hall will confirm it. As a result, those communities who fell for Labour’s ‘you can’t trust the Tories ‘cos they’re all closet racists’ line are unlikely to believe it of the national party or their local Conservative candidate in 2009/10.
This will be an immense help for the Tory campaign in places like Tooting, where Labour’s tactics of fear and division helped hold the line in many foreign-born communities in 2005.
The key is the mass exodus of white working class voters away from their traditional labour support. Should this happen in C & N (and I think it will) then it could be disastrous for Labour.
Labour painted Boris as an ogre and mobilised the muslim vote for Ken, yet they still lost. In 2012 Labour could see their vote radically reduced when the muslim voters look back on 4 years of Boris as a benign Mayor.
Just reposting my question from the previous thread.
I’m sure I’m missing something but I notice there are two bets there regarding Gordon’s ceasing to be PM:
a) Before the end of 2008 — 6/1
b) Before a 2010 election — 20/1
Surely if a) comes to pass then b) also comes to pass. So why not just bet on b) and get the better odds? Can anyone explain?
Thanks Sean - good analysis as always, and great to see the analysis validating yours and others’ predictions on this site during the campaign.
Mark Senior’s bleak assessment of the Lib Dems’ prospects in C+N has sealed the deal for me and I plan to pile in for a bit more on the Tories. I am convinced they will double up in Henley no matter what the Lib Dems throw at them - I would expect Boris to make a high profile visit in support of the Tory candidate and allow the candidate to ride home on his tails in the most conspicuous way.
Brown is toast but that is not to say that it won’t be a slow, lingering political death. Watching how the country has turned on him will be a chastening lesson for all would-be leaders - a hero a year ago for not crying when abject quasi-terrorists failed to burn an automatic door, he could now single-handedly extinguish a fire in a childrens hospital and be accused of wasting water.
I still believe he will be in No.10 on the morning of the next general election, in 2010. Bags packed.
30. Indeed. The more swivel-eyed Lib Dem posters have been getting increasingly batey in recent weeks.
It’s understandable, as their entire world view, based on the extrapolation of the 1992-2001 period into the indefinite future, is collapsing.
31 - I respect that answer You still haven’t explained, however, why if you think that the Lib Dems would be pouring resources into Crewe & Nantwich (which, Tressage, for the avoidance of doubt, I am happy to accept they are) which could usefully be employed elsewhere. The theory put forward by HF seemed entirely reasonable in the circumstances.
I am glad that the LDs seem to have woken up and re-focused on C&N. If they did drive Labour into 3rd it could get Brown out. I also win a little at 14 to 1.
Alternatively are the LDs more worried about their vote share declining in C&N and what that does to their Northern Leader?
40 - “It’s understandable, as their entire world view, based on the extrapolation of the 1992-2001 period into the indefinite future, is collapsing.”
I must admit that made me smile…
42. Not so much Nick Clegg being Neil Kinnock but Michael foot!
30. Perhaps he just gets a bit annoyed when Conservatives presume tell us what they think’s going on in the Lib Dems as if it’s fact. It’s almost as annoying as when certain people from your party presume to tell us what a Liberal really is, as if they know. This is an arrogant side of certain Tories that seems hard to shift.
38 - assume it means in 2010, before an election. So quite unlikely to come in as if he hangs on 18 months until 2010 he won’t then go before an election.
Excellent article Sean. Thanks a lot.
So what messages can we take from the campaign and the election?
Class does not seem to be an issue to the electorate.
Race works as a core vote strategy for BME voters but can alienate the white working class.
Safe Labour seats are not necessarily safe.
Conservatives are winning the middle class and the centre in real elections.
35,37 Those are both good points. I expect that Labour won’t be able to match this year’s performance in wards with large ethnic minority populations, next time, once they see that Johnson isn’t a racist. But I expect the white working class voters will be hard for them to get back.
33 Hopefully not, once ethnic minority voters see he’s not an ogre.
29 The end of the day even……
45. No less so when Lib Dems or Labour go on about Nasty greedy Tories and Toffs etc.
42 We never stopped focussing on C&N except in your spinning posts .
40 We can never become as batty as the viscerable hatred of the LibDems in your every post shows you to be .
51. Cnut!
52. Sorry i take that back - just pissed off that i was rejected for another job on class basis. Don’t rib people about unemployment - not funny!
Paddy Power now 3/1 on Brown leaving this year, Will Hill only 5/2!
As Obama said, “Something’s going on…”
So is there any evidence of the LDs diverting resource to Henley as Mark Senior and Tressage vehemently deny that LD resources are being targeted elsewhere and call me a CCHQ troll or similar?
Well here is a letter to LDs from the LD Deputy Director of Campaigns (UK) begging for help NOW in Henley..
http://tinyurl.com/6ngedx
“we really need bodies on the ground now”
Says it all really.
The Director (Hilary) is up in C&N and the Deputy can be spared to focus on Henley where the Conservatives have not even started to select a candidate let alone actually call a by election….
38 What if there isn’t an election in 2010!
51 – Breath taking hypocrisy Mr Senior.
No one does ‘batty’ quite like you! ;:
51: Mark, I’ve had heated political discussions about many subjects with people of every political persuasion under the sun, but only the Lib Dems pouted and didn’t come down the pub afterwards.
55. It seems a strange set of priorities to ditch a “live” campaign for a latent one. They might not even call a by-election in Henley.
55 Lib Dems do multi-tasking, HF. Don’t worry. And as a national party we have activists north and south.
Is Shapps going to resign (like Whitelaw and Carrignton?)
51. What does ‘viscerable’ mean? Is it a spelling mistake caused by over-frenetic typing? Steady on, old chap.
54 There’s a large flock of vultures over Hyde Park heading the direction of Downing Street…….
My dear Antifrank, I really do apologise. I called you a Tory. I hope you will understand that I got carried away by an upsurge of irritation and I didn’t really mean to insult you.
On the other hand, the tone you adopt does sound a bit Tory at times. Pax.
58 I am frequently in the pub especially if there is a bar billiard table there .
Thanks Sean. Helps explain my surprise at just how many votes Boris AND Ken received. Cannot be that common to increase one’s vote by a quarter and get soundly beaten!
53 Martin Day. I understand that your job interview panel felt you looked too much like Kinnock. Allllllllllllrighttttttttttttt.
Better luck next time.
55: What an odd move less than a week before C&N votes.
If Brown does go, I wonder if there are any big jobs out there for him. Is the IMF looking for someone?
2014 A tired, failed Cameron goes cap in hand to Gordon Brown.
66.
BTW He’d been previously turned down by President(e) Blair.
66 lmao
33. I disagree. I think like everything else the country is becoming more & more fragmented politicall. What happens in one area doesn’t necessarily point correlate with what happens in another. See Stevenage for example. Local council monolithically Labour, even now. How is Stevenage that different from Harlow or Crawley or other New Towns that have swung decisively rightwards. Look at Sheffield compared to Leeds. Similar size, similar demographics, Leeds has 22 Tory councillors, Sheffield lost her last one this year. Makes no sense at all because in different place different parties have convinced different people to vote for them.
36. It already happens in some places. Here in Portsmouth the poorest ward by far in the city has been Lib Dem solidly for 6 years & they fell to third place for the first time this year. In Reading as well two of the more recent Lib Dem breakthroughs have happened in wards which would be regarded as natural Labour wards in terms of demographics. A lot of these people don’t vote anyway. If the ones who do if they don’t vote for Labour they’re in big trouble.
66. I thought i had the job in the bag - the challange changed from getting the job to not getting the job!
28 I pointed that out, Tressage, and I’m a Tory - we are quite nice people, you know.
What has Shapps done now, Footsoldier (60)? It is the inimitable Grant Shapps that you mean, I suppose.
OT: Did anyone see the article by Andrew Stephen in the New Statesman last week about the American primaries?
It’s quite frankly hilarious. The day after Obama seeming closed the deal in Indiana and North Carolina, he comes out with this:
“So we found ourselves back to square one on Tuesday night, with no definite winner emerging from the last two big Democratic primaries, in North Carolina and Indiana.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/200805070003
It follows on from the hatchet job; “the truth about Obama” he’s also written. I can’t see any kind of merit from this kind of biased delusional journalism other than a very subtle kind of satire.
73 Martin. Your CV with 30 Cleggovers wasn’t the clincher then ??
53 I have a penny of King Cnut for sale at the moment £ 180 to you 10% discount off list price .
72 A really well-organised local party can swim against the tide for some time. I expect that explains Labour’s success in Stevenage, when places like Hatfield, Borehamwood, Harlow have all fallen away from them. I expect though, that having lost seats in Stevenage, they’ll keep losing them now.
72. That is Labour fell to third place in Charles Dickens ward.
68. Brown will come into his own on retirement, I reckon. He will take a fair while off and then will come back as a major figure in the global fight against poverty. He will rehabilitate his reputation amongst the British people and will be regarded as a man who deservedly failed at the top job but still had much to offer public life. His memoirs, published in 2018, will come to be regarded as the most authoritative text on the rise and fall of New Labour.
Possibly.
Some Tories are nice, Test (74), but by no means all.
I like most of the ones I meet on the doorstep. Like me, they are not totally convinced by Cameron.
76 - He obviously wrote it before Indiana/North Carolina based on polls and couldn’t be arsed changing it. Less delusional, more incredibly lazy!
81.
76. The New Statesman is a pretty terrible magazine in terms of analysing the state of play - it’s far too occupied with wistful philosophising.
78 Mark. Now there’s a fine example of Cnut economic liberalism … 10% discount for proposed tidal power.
One of the best indicators of the potential future of a CEO or Executive is whether there is a good/better job for them to go to.
I know with a PM it is slightly different. But if there was a juicy well-paid job out there…
63 - I have the skin of a rhinoceros, don’t worry.
66 that’s bloody mean spirited from somebody so privileged. Shame on you. Your inamoratus Obama would not approve.
Keep going Martin. Have you tried monster.com?
83. How about this one then?
http://www.newstatesman.com/200801100000
Obama in; not remembering incident from childhood clearly scandal!
53 “I was rejected for another job on class basis.”
Maybe, next time you should go to the interview yourself, rather than just sending your butler….!
Anyway - good luck for the next one, mate.
81 There will be a wave of sympathy for him especially if he falls on his sword and doesn’t have to be put through a Thatcheresque defenestration. All the media contempt of the past few weeks will disappear overnight and he will be portrayed as a tragic figure. He could easily rehabilitate himself with “good works” like IDS or, further back, John Profumo.
79. True, but to do that they must have convinced different people to stick with them, or vote for them in the first place that have deserted the Labour party elsewhere. & anyway, they’re highly unlikely to plumment even if they do lose seats, maybe a gentle melting.
Well, Boris to seem to be adopting a very centrist approach - having promised to put an Air Marshal on a plinth in Trafalgar Square, he’s now decided to consult about it instead.
I think the Tories will indeed be the short-term beneficiaries of racial voting trends, but this will bring a longer-term dilemma. Do they continue to court - by inference - Romford Man, or do they turn round and disappoint him, hoping for a party to their right to emerge to eat into Labour’s bedrock vote?
The 40:20:20:20 scenario I have suggested before is surely what they should be aiming for. However, it has clear public order implications.
An excellent start for Boris.
Mayor Boris Johnson witnessed first-hand a knife-wielding thug being caught as he went out with police on a crackdown on blades.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23485258-details/Knife+thug+caught+on+Boris+walkabout/article.do
And of course he’s a racist.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23484299-details/Transport+job+for+Sikh+who+set+up+Oyster+card/article.do
Oh, and this, a nice picture of the Bliar’s Britain - I hear HMP Holloway is nice this time of year.
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard/article-23485246-details/Woman+bought+baby+for+%C2%A3370+to+get+council+home/article.do
68. Someone suggested he’d probably have a very senior position in something to do with Africa. I think he’ll make a much better ex-prime minister than a prime minister.
84. Agreed. Of course there’s a place for philosophy and navel gazing, but it should really be rooted in reality.
The Huff indicates that McCain may be in trouble over his Hamas position :
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/05/15/exclusive-video-mccain-wa_n_102031.html
FWIW, I live about 8 miles from Henley on Thames, but outside the constituency. I have just received a letter asking me to go to Crewe.
Agree that it is v. tedious reading the views of Tories on Lib Dem strategy as if they knew what was going on!
89 - I am surprised Obama is still standing following such a sustained attack from no less a journal than the New Statesman. If one didn’t know better, one would be tempted to believe that the British lefties’ jazz mag of choice isn’t required reading in Raleigh, North Carolina.
91. Now there’s a thought, throwing Thatch out a window…
IDS is rehabilitated? Shurely shome mishtake?
89. It’s so silly - as is the misreporting that Obama wants troops in Pakistan. I noticed the biography dutifully skips over the bits where he worked communiter organiser and then led a voter registration drive. Even more amusing was the argument that blacks wouldn’t support him!
I sometimes feel where those people that positively identify as left-wingers, rather than those who have simply arrived at “left-wing” views, actually don’t like winning. They want to go down nobly in defeat, to prove that might of the evil establishment. Some left-wingers oppose Obama for reasonable reasons, but for others it just seems so knee-jerk, almost as if they don’t want one of their own to be successful by being accepted by right-wingers. They’d must prefer a vicious fight to the death.
42 I did some very successful phone canvassing for C&N last Saturday and last night.
I’m spending the day in Henley tomorrow.
I live in Bedfordhire so its a sensible use of my time.
We LDs are amazing at multi-tasking
95. Do you think Brown really cares one jot about Africa?
97. So? It has no effect on the race? Therefore shoddy journalism is ok? I like to read most of the magazine, and i like to be reading good quality journalism. Their coverage of the US has been lacking.
The Lib Dems can’t afford to ignore C&N even IF [I said IF] everyone else ignores them.
Clegg certainly can’t. He is in a spot leading a third party in this climate.
We all navel gaze and the LibDems will be examining their own fluff.
67 Why is it odd ? Seems a sensible use of activists north and south to me.
Thought Timpson was smamrmy and arrogant on Newsnight last night. Does not look like a nice guy
101 Absolutely.
101. Can’t see into the man’s head. But he has a good record.
03 Does LD Federal Executive on Monday moved to C&N, LD Shadow Cabinet moved to C&N on Tuesday and LD PP mtg on Wednesday moved to C&N on Wednesday sound like we’re ignoring it ?
100 and 104 How is it a sensible diversion of resources if Henley is probably months away?
102 - A piece of advice - if you like reading good quality journalism, don’t read the New Statesman. There is room in the free market for dreadful, lazy, self congratulatory journalism as shown by moderate success of the New Statesman, the Spectator and 95% of all blogs. Some people like reading this sh1t because they agree with it and don’t want to be bothered with subtler arguments based on properly sourced facts. I say let them enjoy it - it is neither “okay” nor not okay, it is just the market and I am unclear why you care.
Just worth pointing out that the Poole by election was a straight contest between Conservative and Lib Dem. At the previous election in 2007 an Independant stood as well and she polled 577 votes so to say there was a big swing to the Liberal Democrats is misleading as you are not comparing like with like!
Sean - very interesting commentary, many thanks. Is Boris empowered to make a start on eliminating the voting fraud that undoubtedly exists in London elections, e.g. by introducing much tighter controls as regards postal voting, or does this require legislation by Westminster?
108 - Firstly, it isn’t diversion of resources. These are volunteers and somebody in Slough who can spare half a day obviously won’t go to Crewe. Secondly, depending on how much the Tories are doing, putting some effort in Henley early on is likely to yield dividends in terms of getting in early on the big issues so the Tories come over as Jonny-come-latelys when they rock up and start on the same things - you can’t replicate first-mover advantage.
99. I think you could say the same about Heffer and his ilk. Most ideologues seem to hate the prospect of government. It must be difficult to descend from moral absolutes to the more complex world that we live in.
109. I don’t care majorly. I just found the article slightly ridiculous. I apologise if that upset you at all. Next time, why not skip my posts?
100 Tim
Excuse my ignorance but how does phone canvassing work ?
Do you call everyone in the Crewe phone book whose surname begins with “Q”, or are you calling people who are already known.
112 - It didn’t upset me at all, G. My response was merely flippant. And I do generally skip your posts, but had time on my hands
113 - You can purchase ‘phone number lists and automatically marry them up with registered voters on the electoral register (this is all on computer). This ensures you call the household rather than the “owner” of the ‘phone so you can try to establish the position for all residents. It also means you are calling a street so can find out about local issues and use the knowledge in your next call (”are you having trouble with the water board taking up the pavement too?” - that sort of thing). I hate telephone canvassing - find it really difficult when you can’t look ‘em in the eye.
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 47% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 44% .. Obama 48%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/107323/Gallup-Daily-Obamas-Edge-Narrows-48-44.aspx
106.
You cannot be serious. Just how difficult is it to throw money, not your own of course, at a problem? Had he resigned at the same time as TB, he would now be strutting the World stage. As it is,C&N will be the end.
113. Example -
Swivel-eyed Lib Dem ‘Good evening, I’m canvassing for the Lib Dems in the forthcoming byelection’
Householder [hangs up]
Lib Dem to colleague - ‘another definite there’
Talking of Lib Dem by election strategy. I agree with Sam Coates… just dreadful
.
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/05/why-is-british.html
For all the Toy bluster “LDs sqeezed, LDs with real problems if they come third etc etc” nobody has yet sold me so much as a pound of LibDem seats yet.
Johnson held Springfield (Hackney) with its huge Chassidic population, yes, but you also need to remember that this is a community that voted postally in huge numbers (more so because the election was near Passover). So you could easily add in New River to Johnson, a much better showing in Lordship (if not victory), and a rather better showing in Cazenove (where Jewish voters tend to back the LibDems but probably switched to Boris).
117 - I think LD canvassers are a little more perceptive than that. Even if they say they’ll vote for you, they may well not.
LDs may well come second in Crewe. If they do, ta-ra Gordon. A Henley win is also quite possible.
117 Alternative tale of Conservative telephone canvassing .
Name for this number Twissleton-Thwaite clearly a toff no need to ring him - ticks definite box .
re 116 that’s not good for Obama, is it? Whatever one thinks about the absolute figures, he’s notably in worse shape against McCain than Clinton. And Electoral-vot.com’s excellent updates on the Electoral College position has consistently shown for some weeks that Clinton beats McCain but Obama may not.
95 G Please do NOT wish Brown on Africa, they have enough problems with their home grown pompous, self delusional, dysfunctional politicians with the financial skills of the Steptoes.
121
Unfortunately (for you), thats not true. My MP lives close by to me and even he gets canvassed (usually by leaflet as he is out canvassing himelf). I never assume anything when canvassing. It might be a bit OTT, but I think my MP would be disappointed if he didn’t at least get a leaflet,if not just to show that the activists were out there working on his behalf.
111 The Deputy Campaign Director for LDs is solely focused on Henley.
That is one resource that could have been placed in C&N.
121 - reminds me of telling outside the Bear in Oxford once. One voter had no polling card, but gave her name as something like Felicity Fotherby-Nicholson, Christ Church.
Tory teller said “Double barrelled, must be one of ours”. I piped up that I was double barrelled, but not a Tory. Tory teller said “but your surname is Smith-Brown or something, so it doesn’t count.”
LDs won. Tories came fourth with 9%.
SBS - How many thousands of pounds of your own money are you going to put on either/or the LDs coming second in Crewe and Nantwich and winning Henley.
Do you really believe the Cowley Street spin?
I’ve been to Crewe and I can tell you its not going to happen….. save your cash!
Sean how suprised were you the labour gained Harrow and Brent?
Living in next door Ealing I was very suprised as I didn’t think anything different was happening.
What do you think about the Tories gaining Harrow West now?
I think once the ethnic minorities see that Boris is not a racist then they should have little problem in gaining Harrow west, Harrow East and maybe even Brent North.
127 - I have not listened to Cowley Street spin at all. They have not contacted me, and I am definitely an “inactivist” rather than an “activist”. What I say is my hunch! No more than that.
May put a few quid on, but perhaps not, given your advice. Is the Labour vote really holding up there?
re 125. …and the said person, a personal friend of mine and an avid follower of PB, is brilliant.
127 - for the record, my latest hunch is that that whoever is second, the Tories will exceed the Labour vote by about 5,000. A swing of 15% or so would get rid of Brown. The parallel I can think of is Eastbourne 1990 which got rid of Thatcher.
I personally wish the Tories had won Cheadle, so CK could have gone quickly and quietly before the booze stories.
Do the Tories really want rid of Brown so soon? He is their greatest asset.
Rasmussen polls from Maine:
Obama and Clinton both beat McCain 51-38.
In the Senate race Collins (R) still leads Allen (D), but the gap is down from 16 to 10 points in the last month.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/maine/election_2008_maine_senate2
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/maine/election_2008_maine_presidential_election2
The Maine Senate race is quite interesting. Collins now leads 52 (-2) - 42 (+4). It is a blue state but Collins is well-liked and seen as a moderate. Both the candidates have high favourables for Clollins 70% and for Allen 58%. Allen currently represents one of only 2 House seats so has name recognition and political experience. Media markets are fairly cheap so even though Collins is outraising Allen (mostly with PAC money) money shouldn’t have a massive impact. The Democrats will win if they tie Collins to Bush and Iraq. This is the difference between good gains of 4-6 seats and great gains of 7-10 seats. It could be similar to a 2006 race where Lincoln Chafee a moderate Republican lost in Rhode Island.
We really do need a dose of realism. Labour’s majority in Crewe is big - particularly gien that it’s over a party that doesn’t exactly have a great recent record in by-elections. If the Conservatives do win next week then it will be a fantastic result - even if it’s by 1 vote - but it is not a certainty at all.
I’ve only been to Crewe and Nantwich once during this campaign but it seems very very close. Labour’s vote is clearly down and the Conservative vote is clearly up but we won’t know if it’s up enough to win until next Thursday night / Friday morning. The idea that one party or the other is miles ahead doesn’t seem to match the experience of people on the ground.
One thing that is certain is that Labour will finish ahead of the Lib Dems. I saw absolutely no sign of Lib Dem activity when I was there - no posters, no leaflets, no activists. It is - as they say - a two horse race. Given the name of this site, if anyone seriously disagrees with that analysis then I am more than happy to put my money where my mouth is. You can e-mail me on mike@mike-wood.org.uk
Good analysis, Sean.
33. Spot on. The relentless pursuit, by the Labour party, of the ethnic minority, weeping-liberal vote (as evinced by the Guardian refusing to racially identify the assailants in the Oxford Street murder) has turned around and bitten the Left on the ass.
They’ve lost the average white man. And woman.
As you say Labour may now be reduced to a core of: tribally Labour whites, Alan Rusbridger and friends, and BME voters. I reckon that contitutes around 20% of the electorate. Not near enough.
re 68 God help all of use if GB goes to the IMF. Isn’t buggering up one economy enough for the man.
HF, since you - a Tory - know so much more about the workings of the Liberal Democrats than all us Lib Dem activists….. please let us into a secret.
You tell us (125) that “the Deputy Campaign Director for LDs is solely focused on Henley.”
Do you happen to know where the Lib Dem Campaign Director is focused?
Or is that information not given to you in your Tory Central Office prompt book?
Mike Wood Spot on.
131 - I am not saying Labour are doing well - far from it! Their loathsome core vote “toff” strategy is one of the meanest and most unpleasant campaigns in the last 30 years and is going down quite badly. One voter in a strong Labour ward called it - unprompted -”pathetic”.
That said, Crewe and Nantwich was not even a Tory gain in 1983 and is far from a shoo in. Labour will fight hard and dirty.
That said, their vote is staying at home or shifting in fairly large numbers to the Conservatives and Lib Dems in that order.
My guess is that the Lib Dems have failed to gain traction as the main anti-Labour challengers and David Cameron is seen as mainstream and reasonable choice for voters to use their votes to kick Labour in the most effective manner.
re 115 what about those households where are hundreds of voters registered?
134 - So you are saying that the Labour party controls the Guardian now?
If Labour is relentlessly pursuing the weeping liberal vote why are they locking more people up than ever before, introducing ID cards, trying to push through 42-day detention and creating ASBOs?
Why are Labour “locking more people up than ever before, introducing ID cards, trying to push through 42-day detention and creating ASBOs”, Kieran (140)?
Beacause they are still after the Tory vote, of course!
138 How is their campaign going down amongst Labour MPs. Quite happy for LabourHome to draw similarities with BNP tactis are they?
I’ve been ignoring the Betfair party leaders market as if was so illiquid but I’ve just had a look and there’s been a huge change in the odds and I’m now comfortably green on all possible outcomes.
140: ‘So you are saying that the Labour party controls the Guardian now?’
With the amount of government advertising Labour gives them, partially.
115 Thanks James, hadn’t realised it was so sophisticated.
o/t many people on here have argued that Obama has the nomination in the bag absent an “event”. Well it seems that Clinton supporters are spreading a rumour around the blogs today that there is a videotape of Mrs Obama at that Chicago church going off on one about “whitey” and the Republicans have it.
As I have said previously, remember “Primary Colours”. The Clintons can be ruthless.
133 - I don’t get this argument about Crewe and Nantwich being far down the Tory target list and therefore it does not need to be won to indicate a Tory victory at the next GE.
Governments always do worse in by-elections. Look at Rod’s work on this there is always a swing back to the governing party from by-election results.
Also, the Conservatives haven’t been good at by-elections because of the national picture not for intrinsic reasons. From 1982-1997 they were in government and governing parties very rarely gain by-election seats. 1997-2003 they were no where. 2003-2008 there haven’t been many juicy Parliamentary targets and nationally they have never had an advantage anywhere near as big as now.
140. Who said they weren’t intent on losing a chunk of that constituency, as well?
Remember they have form in this area - in 1979 Peter Hall and loads of other luvvies voted Tory, so sick were they of Labour creating ‘a land without opportunity’
144 - The Guardian is a lefty paper but it can be critical of Labour. It just hated Boris.
133,137 Well the betting markets appear to be in no doubt. The Tory candidate is 1/5 on Betfair, whilst Ms Dunwoody is priced at 5/1.
138 - I quite agree that the toff strategy is pretty dire! The Tories were a clear second at the GE. I expect the Tories to win well.
But by-elections do thrown up oddities. The Tories came third in Littleborough and Saddleworth and in Eastleigh, both seats they were defending.
I am a little alarmed at largely agreeing with your post. I am also touched that you see me as somebody on the hotline to Cowley Street. I pay my subscription but that is about all I do for the party.
140. Because Labour are hopelessly incoherent. Their basic liberal-elite instinct is to be pathetic, slavering Guardianista wetwipes, who care more about asylum seeking Gambians than the white people of Dagenham.
However, under Blair, they decided to triangulate - because they felt they couldn’t win without the Mail and Murdoch onside - hence the bizarrely rightwing policies and phraseology in certain areas (and, to be fair, this authoritarianism did gel with a certain de haut en bas attitude in the leftie psyche).
The result has been ideologically disastrous. No one knows what Labour stands for any more. You get people like Nick Palmer trotting out lines like “if the Tories have good policies we’ll take them” - such as IHT abolition, surely a rightwing policy if ever there was one.
Consequently, Labour have hollowed themselves out. They’ve tried to appeal to everyone but ended up appealing to no one. Their relentlessly and ludicrously PC rhetoric and racism-shouting annoys ordinary white people; their authoritarian shtick annoys liberals and centrists.
If people want honest right wing policies, which they do, they will vote Tory. At least the Tories will do what they say: be patrotic, freedom loving, eurosceptic, capitalist, low taxing, and tough on nasty people whatever their race.
Labour, by contrast, is a nullity. Between them, Blair and Brown have destroyed the party, by depriving it of meaning.
Labour MPs have been cravenly silent about the xenophobia and class hatred, not to mention printing a photo of the Tory candidate’s family home (which is about as much of a “mansion” as my cottage). John Harris, left-wing journalist in the Guardian, however, picked up on it when all around him were silent and his article was commented on all over the blogs (coffee house etc).
The Tory odds were 1/7 now 1/5 Has much money been waged?
On the subject of the thread, its quite amazing that the Lib Dems failed to carry a single one of the 600+ wards in Greater London and must give them pause for thought in Richmond, Sutton and Kingston.
With regard to Tower Hamlets, given that George Galloway actively campaigned for Livingstone, the swings to Labour are less inexplicable than at first sight. As for Newham, did the 2012 Olympics funding promises associated with Livingstone bear fruit?
O/T - Oh good grief Quentin has been stumping for Labour….
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/may/quentin-davies-toff.htm
153
theses are the odds on Mikes ink
Bookmaker Betting Exchange
Conservatives 1/7
0.19/1
Labour 9/2
5
Liberal Democrats 25
37
155, hilarious! I’ve been trying not to get complacent but now…
149 PfP the betting markets knew nothing about Dunfermline, so that doesn’t mean all that much.
Interesting to see that Sporting has suspended its market on the C&N by-election - does this perhaps indicate that another poll is imminent?
122 Martin. Broadly you picks your polls and takes your chances. In any case Hillary isn’t relevant to McCain any longer in these match ups. Obama has a lock on the nomination and will IMO pommel McCain in the autumn.
151 - Is this the Tory party which pledged to spend more on the NHS than Labour? The one that now supports the minimum wage and flexible working hours? The one that wants to ‘understand’ criminals rather than lock them up and get them out of the way? The one that was for ID cards before they were against it, before they were for it, before they were against it again?
Labour moved to the centre ground because that is where the majority of voters are. They won two landslide victories because the Conservatives were seen as too right-wing. The Conservatives have become more centrist and so the two parties are squabling over very little ideological space.
That has hit Labour hard because they ahve been in government for 11 years and people have got fed up with things. Added to that Brown has made a few misteps over the last 6 months. The Labour party has been hollowed out to a degree. People on the left are always disappointed by their governments because they are usually idealistic.
So, sure Labour have lots of problems. The idea that is ludicrous is that the Conservatives have any more fixed ideology, or that they would be able to keep their current coalition of voters happy if they were in government.
161 - the Tories are as ever a broad church. SeanT sits at the far edge of the north aisle. His view of what goes on in the rest of the church is obscured. He can’t even see the altar at all.
AP reports that California SD Keith Umemota endorse Hillary.
153 MTF - Frankly the amount of money wagered on C&N is pretty pathetic, £45K matched on Betfair to date, which equates to around £3K-£5K per day. Doubtless things will liven up somewhat during the final 48 hours.
161. In many ways you touch on an interesting point, Keiran: historically the Tories have always been fairly pragmatic. They’ve adapted a lot in the past 100 years: there’s always been a basic *idea* behind them but their ideology was very flexible and considered much more flexible than Labour’s, for instance (Labour used to equal nationalisation and redistribution. The Tories tended to work with the nationalised industries Labour gave them).
It was only on the advent of Thatcher that the Tories got very ideological and it’s taken them many years to shake that off. Labour, of course, lost its ideology in the 1990s.
So historically it was the Tories who used to have more of a flexible ideology and Labour who didn’t. In the last 15 years it was the other way round. But the Tories have always been the party who attempt to speak for the ‘broad coalition,’ being the ‘natural party of government.’ Now they’ve finally moved on from Thatcher in some regards, it should be no surprise that they’re going back to being so flexible with their ideology.
162 SBS. Me thinks that seanT is sitting on the graveyard (off the)wall !!
162 Except that Sean is not a Tory.
More of Brown’s plans turn out not to be as good as they had seemed, with him being heavily criticised for insisting that his much heralded fund for climate adaptation for poor countries, will be in the form of loans from Britain, and not grants.
Understandably poor countries aren’t impressed about being asked to pay interest on loans to Britain in order to adapt to global warming, caused in large part by British GHG emissions since the Industrial Revolution.**
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2008/may/16/climatechange.internationalaidanddevelopment
** Although, I did see one estimate that had Brazil as a large source of historical CO2 emissions given the large scale deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.
99
“I sometimes feel where those people that positively identify as left-wingers, rather than those who have simply arrived at “left-wing” views, actually don’t like winning. They want to go down nobly in defeat, to prove that might of the evil establishment. Some left-wingers oppose Obama for reasonable reasons, but for others it just seems so knee-jerk, almost as if they don’t want one of their own to be successful by being accepted by right-wingers. They’d must prefer a vicious fight to the death.”
The same thinking/feeling occured to me since the last few days — when I try to share the excitement of a coming Obama Presidency with socialists, and soft impotent communists, and tired neo-hippies, and dusty academics.
167 - quite so PfP. How many churchgoers are Christians?
161
What nonsense. The idea that the voters that kept Labour in power for 10 yrs were all idealogically Labour is absolute tosh. Elections are all about getting your core voters out, and convincing enough of the floaters and disaffected to support you.
Blair kept the coalition going for 10 yrs. Gordo has destroyed it.
re 159. PfP SPIN suspended their C&N market immediately after I tried to place a big bet which they refused. They have a 5-10-25 spread market and I was trying to sell Labour at 11.5 - which is almost certain to produce a return and gave me the other possibility of making a nice extra profit if the party finished in third place or even worse.
One of the penalties of running this site is that bookies often refuse my bets. I really get sick of it and it hurts my pocket. My gambling winnings are a key part of my income.
172 - I’m sorry to hear that Mike. It seems a little unfair.
The silver lining is that you run the best political website in the UK and you are considered the country’s pre-eminent polling expert, so it’s not all bad!
162. I’m not even a Tory. But sometimes it takes an outside to say it like it is.
Basically, I agree with Blair’s diagnosis of the country: Britain, especially England, is an essentially conservative country (even when Labour won last time, more English people voted Tory than voted Labour).
Labour only won 1997-2005 by posing as Tories - quite successfully.
This enraged the core lefties in Labour, but they put up with it as long as Blair/Brown kept winning; meanwhile most people were deeply suspicious of Labour, especially coz of all the PC drivel they spouted, and the mass immigration they encouraged etc etc, but the voters tolerated the idiot side of Labour as long as the economy kept steaming.
Now both contracts have been broken. Blair/Brown don’t look like winners so the real Labour supporters are asking: why do we put up with this pseudo-Tory crap from our loser leaders? And the economy is stuttering, so the mass of ordinary voters are no longer prepared to tolerate Labour’s betrayals on Europe, immigration, crime etc.
Labour is in a double bind, because they have tried to be what they are not.
Meanwhile the Tories have stayed basicallyly the same, they have just updated the packaging (and the brand did need a refurbishment). They’ve added a few twiddly nice bits about windmills and hospitals so people don’t mind voting for the “nasty party”.
This should see Cammo into office in 2010 because, as I say, Blair was right. Britain, especially England, is essentially a centre-right country. The nation of shopkeepers. Individualist, pragmatic, mildly hedonistic, quietly patriotic, leave-me-alone-and-I’ll-leave-you-alone: that’s yer average Brit.
161 - Did you read my post? Where did I say all the voters who kept Labour in power were ‘ideologically Labour’. What I said was that Labour were able to construct a coalition of voters by moving to the centre ground. The Conservatives stuck to right-wing dogma and lost big, twice. They are now moving back to the centre.
Your Blair/Gordo dichotomy doesn’t stand up to scrutiny. In the last year with Blair Labour were behind in the polls, in the low 30s. They only picked up as it was apparent he was going. If he was still PM Labour would likely be in a similar position.
172
Can’t you place ‘em by proxie?
155.That one made me LOL, the irony of it all.
172.Mike, that seems a bit mean considering that this site must generate business for the online bookies, part of the success of the site is down to you putting your money where your mouth is.
176, 172. Yes indeed - can’t you get someone else to bet for you? Or it that illegal? If so, how can it be enforced?!
163. I’m not sure why they’re reporting it now; he endorsed Clinton last November.
75 Tressage, I presume because of this
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/david_hencke/2008/05/donors_and_dodges.html
174 - I don’t deny that Britain is generally a centre-right country (although most Lib Dems are left-of-centre which skews it a bit). And you’re right that Labour has been too quick to co-opt Tort ideas. New Labour is a product of the 1992 defeat. Labour could have been more progressive and redistributive than it has been.
However to pretend that this has just been a Tory government is ridiculuous. There has been big increases in public spending, the minimum wage, new rights for workers, hundreds of thousands lifted out of poverty, progressive social legislation like civil partnerships. These are all things that have pleased the Left.
95: Who knows? Reading this site I’m having trouble believing that the larger parties care one jot about Britain, let alone Africa.
It’s clear that many of the Tory and Labour partisans here detest the Lib Dems as much or more than they do, for instance, the BNP; but I suspect that their real hostility is directed at the ordinary non-political citizen.
Evidence? My annual tax form is still accompanied by a threat. The BBC demands its licence fee with a “we know where you live” advert. Local councils criminalise people for over-filling their rubbish containers (which they decline to empty with an adequate frequency).
Exaggerated? Non-partisan citizens, sorry subjects, cling to tribal loyalties, but I fear that more and more they come to the idea that the politicians have declared a state of hostility against the rest of us, and they articulate this with the inaccurate, but perhaps understandable, view that all politicians are corrupt.
I’ve wondered if Obama hysteria is an example of the left (or what passes for it in the US) wanting to lose. As far as I can see Clinton is the stronger candidate in the states that matter but I know many on this site go pop-eyed at the suggestion.
181 - Left - right - left - right… isn’t there also another axis of authoritarian / liberal or libertarian.
ID cards, or killing Iraqis, the 42 day rule are neither left nor right, but very Labour. And very authoritarian.
175 I apologise unreservedly, I misread what you were saying.
181
“However to pretend that this has just been a Tory government is ridiculuous”
Quite right . No Conservative Government would dare to widen the gap between rich and poor as Labour have done.
And the hundreds of thousands lifted out of poverty are going to go back there in the next two years as the economy slows and unemployment rises.
re 162 if it’s conventional church then SeanT’s place would be very unusual indeed. He might be sitting in the depths of the north transept perhaps.
176, 178
That’s a bit difficult when the market is suspended. Sporting has developed a rather nasty and frequent habit of suspending its markets. This makes something of a mockery of its oft repeated marketing claim that clients can trade 24/7. Unfortunately, it appears to be the only spread-betting firm offering this market.
Good spot by you Mike, but I’ll guarantee that when Sporting deigns to re-open, the price on Labour will be 10, +/- 0.5 points surprise, surprise.
Con home carrying a terrible story from Oborne about abuse in Zimbabwe.
BE CAREFUL.
There are TRUELY DREADFUL pictures.
CAN’T STRESS THIS TOO MUCH.
I have only put the link up to ConHome.
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/
The link is under the bit about Nadine Dorries.
Putting things in perspective.
185 - Sorry if I was a bit aggressive, just so used to the attacks
184 - Yes Labour have been authoritarian which is what I picked Sean up on earlier where he said that they were relentlessly pursuing the weeping liberal.
186 - The gap between rich and poor widened dramatically between 1979 and 1997, since then the increase has slowed. The tax policy has been mildly redistributive, but inequality has grown faster than the redistribution. They have been running up a down escalator.
181. Have “hundreds of thousands been lifted out of poverty”? Really? How many hundreds of thousands of Labour’s legal and illegal immigrants are living 10-to-a-room? How many are enslaved by gangmasters?
I think you have just driven poverty underground.
Ditto the minimum wage.
That leaves… ooh… “gay marriages”. Nice one. After ten years of “progressive government” your main boast is “gay marriages”. And the foxhunting ban.
Not exactly Atlee and Bevin is it?
Don’t get me wrong: I think this government has been commendably competent, if not brilliant, on the economic front (and Tories that deny this are deluded). But I think as whole New Labour must be a grave disappointment to many on the left; and it is now becoming an embarrassment to everyone else.
OK now I’m off to drink the rest of my Cappadoccian red. Gule gule.
78 LOL!
189 - Terrible indeed. Perhaps people will stop using terms like ZanuNU Labour. Whatever the sins of this government they pale into insignificance when compared to the Mugabe regime. It trivialises the gravity of the abuses that are happening in Zimbabwe.
re 188. I’ve had real problems betting on C&N. The Tuesday before last Ladbrokes opened the betting with the Tories on 4/5. I tried to put £1000 on and it ended up with me managing to place £100.
When I tried to bet again the following day it was 1/2 and the most they would accept was £250. Now it’s 1/7
193 - I intensely dislike the government but comparing Brownism to Stalinism or Labour to Zanu is daft.
I likewise resent the use of the words “third world” to prefix health service / transport system / roads / schools etc. Our health service ain’t great, but it’s better than India’s.
194 Time for Mrs Smithson [under her maiden name] to have a flutter.
Mr Fear, your usually excellent Friday column has been lacking in recent weeks. Omitting the Patriots from your analysis is poor form.
Luckily, some Patriotic number crunchers have been hard at work.
The winners of the 627 wards on the London list vote were:
Conservative: 330
Labour : 285
British National Party: 8
Liberal Democrats: 3
Green Party: 1
Others : 0
The Patriots won in Alibon, Goresbrook, Heath, Mayesbrook, Parsloes, Valence, Village, wards that are all in Barking and Dagenham and in Gooshays ward in Havering.
Despite the Red Ken vs Boris fight, and all other Parties being frozen out, in Barking & Dagenham the Patriots won seven wards, Labour won eight wards and the Tories won two wards.
What does all this mean? Fantastic news for the residents of B&D as they will have a Patriotic Council in 2010.
193. But Labour is culpable as it has consistently refused to do anything about the situation in Zimbabwe, and in private many Labour people think at least some of Mugabe’s victims have somehow deserved their fate.
193. Pictures of the aftermath of our clusterbombing in Iraq might have been equally disturbing. We just do our butchering at a distance. And in a “good cause”, natch.
I’m not comparing Brown to Mugabe; Brown isn’t that efficient a politician.
193
Terrible things happen in all Africa. By contrast, Zimbabwe is restrained. There are elections, and there is no longer full scale genocide.
See Sudan, etc for proper atrocities.
(BTW this is not an apology for Zim ).
The British fascination with an irrelevant and poor former colony is anal and stupid because of its irrelevance.
No-one but no-one is going to intervene, we have zero influence over it.. and most of Africa Sub Sahara is going to go the same way and worse..
197 - didn’t Barnbrook do well as a mayoral candidate. What was his vote share?
198 - “and in private many Labour people think at least some of Mugabe’s victims have somehow deserved their fate.” - have they mentioned this to you in private?
201. Yes.
201. Didn’t Paddick do well (snigger)
193
Labour cannot do anything about Zim. Nor the Conservatives. Nor the Americans. The logistics are impossible and the rewards?
There is no oil.
203 - no, Paddick did badly. Obviously.
I am not pretending my party’s results in London were good. “Emily”, however, is pretending her party had a triumph. Did the BNP vote for mayor go down?
202. Elucidate? How have these victims “deserved” their fate, according to Labourites? What have you heard?
That’s a pretty wild allegation.
BTW I do hope Mugabe has an aneurysm soon. Horrible bastard.
205. Winning fewer wards than the BNP is a tad embarassing though, isn’t it?
“Political Wire” reports in an interview to air later tonight on Bloomberg TV :
Congressman Davis (R-VA) says President Bush is “absolutely radioactive” and Republicans “will suffer widespread election losses in November unless they distance themselves from him.”
Said Davis: “They’ve got to get some separation from the president.”
Davis also said his party “would lose 20 to 25 House seats if the election were held today.” And if Sen. John McCain is seen by voters as “Bush III” he will lose by 20 percentage points.
That is terrible news for Cameron’s Conservatives, Peter (180). Not so much the problem of whether such donations should be declared or not - that seems now to have been resolved.
But surely there is a terrible conflict of interest, when a Conservative spokesman (though, in this case, several of them) is being funded by special interests, which he himself is supposed to be keeping an eye on on behalf of the general public.
Has Mr Cameron made any declaration about this conflict of interest, Peter? I have seen none so far. And yet the people involved are supposedly destined to be members of his government.
A clean and transparent one? Or the same sleazy lot as the last Tory Government?
207 - FPTP is a bizarre system at the best of times. But to quote a FPTP result when it is irrelevant to the election is rather pointless.
That said, a bad day for the LDs in London.
Mike everyone else has posted what I would have done. Get your wife and daughters in law to bet for you under their maiden names. The bookies are not being fair.
208. If the Republicans hold onto the Presidency (there is no way they will have anything other than a very bad night in Congress, IMHO), then John McCain will go down as one helluva politician.
That said, he’s also getting help from the Democrats who provide him with ammunition daily…
“The one ward that Johnson carried in Hackney was Springfield, with
its big Hasidic population,”
http://snipurl.com/296tr
That’s numbozwang.
197 “Pratriot Numbercrunchers”
http://www.dkimages.com/discover/previews/812/35083177.JPG
211. I thought you were against betting?
One interesting anomoly is that Boris took Labour Greenwich and Ken took Tory Ealing.
Wasnt Ealing Kinnock territory?..or at least i am fairly sure they lived there?
209. Sleazy tories never went away.
Their latest cash-for-policies campaign will only surprise those too young to remember the last time they were in power.
re 191 SeanT “gay marriages”?
No I’m afraid not. Gay marriages would have been the moral and just thing to do, but the wrath of the Daily Mail was much too much for wee timorous Tony to contemplate so we have to be treated like second class citizens with second class civil partnerships instead.
re 199 hang on isn’t the humanitarian-getting-rid-of-an-evil-tyrant reason the current reason why we illegally invaded Iraq?
I notice that C&N declared at 0231 in 1997 and 0220 in 2001. Anyone know if it’s likely to be sooner as I’ve got to be up early on Friday next week.
The people’s flag is deepest Brown
Long term decisions and a frown
But when a man must stand and fight
The PM is engaged that night
Then dodge a General Election day
Our focus groups tell us no way
Though cowards flinch and traitors sneer
We’ll keep the Brown flag flying here
That’s just for you, Gabble. Please send Snowflake our best
190
“…severe poverty has worsened under this government. How so, when the Government claims to have lifted ‘a million’ people out of poverty? Well - as you’d expect - it’s all to do with a Bronwie-style, statistical fiddle. ”
http://www.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/710476/browns-poverty-fiddle.thtml
218 Gabble are you politically speaking schizophrenic? the other night I almost thought you were talking reason….
I do sometimes wonder if most of the people here are trolls. What if:-
seanT was really a Marxist
Martin Day a Liberal Democrat
Gabble from the Monday Club
191. The gay marriage and fox hunting legislation is perhaps as symptomatic as anything New Labour has done. Despite the intentions, the publicity and the Acts, gay couples still can’t get married, as Chris A points out, and foxes can still be hunted (as long as they’re shot and not destroyed by dogs).
Chris is right - The Mail should be told precisely where to get off and it should be the same legislation for both gay and straight couples.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kansas/election_2008_kansas_senate
Rasmussen poll for the Kansas Senate race:
Roberts (R) 52 Slattery (D) 40
Slattery only entered the race a few weeks ago. Is a former COngressman so has political experience but also has been a lobyist that might go against him. Still the Democrats haven’t won a Senate election in Kansas since 1932 and this is much closer than would be expected. I wouldn’t expect a win for the Dems but it will be bad news for the GOP if they have to spend time and money on defence here.
191: ” I think this government has been commendably competent, if not brilliant, on the economic front ”
Cannot agree with this. We are mired in debt, government and private, and economic ‘growth’ has been based largely on debt, not productivity, not innovation and not hard work. The UK has spent way WAY beyond its means, that is not economic growth, that is borrowing from the future, and payback time (literally) is coming. If you can come back in 2 years and post again on similar lines with a straight face I will apologise to you. But I fear we will shortly see that the “miracle economy” of Brown has been anything but.
219 Homosexual marriages will probably be repealed some years down the line in a backlash against Labour’s Political Correct fascism.
222 Test,I’m a Labur voter,but I could not help but laugh out loud at your spoof of ‘The Red Flag’-thanks for sending me on my Friday night visit to the pub with a smile on my face
215 Ken, I am in general, I think it makes most people immeasurably poorer and I have seen the lives of close acquaintances ruined by gambling. However where there’s specialist knowledge in a tiny market like Mike’s with political betting it might be different. I myself have never gambled, not even when I had inside knowledge of a situation, because I do not want to get into a bad habit.
What’s good for the great Mike S is probably not at all good for 99% of the population. However I can see that he is that exceptional 1%.
23
200. There are numerous success stories in sub-Saharan Africa, but everyone concentrates on the places where it goes wrong, and then uses that as a justification to stop international aid. This is a very tempting, yet damaging, viewpoint.
230 - yes, along with the BBC being bombed / privatised etc.
Yeah right. Is any party currently planning to privatise Channel Four?
219. Chris A: “Gay marriages would have been the moral and just thing to do, but the wrath of the Daily Mail was much too much for wee timorous Tony to contemplate so we have to be treated like second class citizens with second class civil partnerships instead.”
(genuine question). In what way are civil partnerships inferior to gay marriage?
200 “we have zero influence over it..”
we have zero irrelvence because Labour’s defence cuts and interference, political correctness, immigration policy, Human Rights and health & safety has turned Britain into a joke and unable to make British streets safe let alone Darfur streets.
In other news, a convicted hijacker from Afghanistan is working airside as a cleaner at Heathrow airport. No wonder Johnny Foreigner is laughing.
too soon!
231 thanks
I did have to google the words of the original… Private Eye wrote the first ‘deepest brown’ spoof but it doesn’t appear to be online
you know Patrick, I reckon you are a swing voter and I am going to work on you to join the new and compassionate Tories! Have a great drink and some pork scratchlings, better than a cigarette any day
O/T,but as Doncaster Rovers lead Carlisle 4-0 in the second leg with 30-odd mins remaining,an all-Yorkshire League 1 play-off final between Doncaster and Leeds Utd surely is now on
238 I chatted to a 50-something One Nation Tory a fortnight ago and he concluded I was a ’social democrat’ (as was he’,as opposed to socialist.
I have my thoguhts-but when I read recent posts dissing civil partnerships as ‘politically correct rubbish’,it stops me going all the way to the blue column.
‘Swing-ABLE’ voter (I did cheer for Mrs T in 1983 as a 12 year-old) would be an accurate description of me.
Have a good night,all
GAY MARRIAGE SHAN’T BE IMPOSED ON SOCIETY — EVEN IF WE LIVE IN A GAY SOCIETY
Gay marriage might lead to undesirable social outcomes; it might be part of a process of social breakdown
However, I think neither the State or anybody shall be telling other people how to live.
The Gays can live the way they wanna live.
The ban can be considered as an assault on liberty coming from the State bench. Sure.
But as Eric Cartman would say: we live in every Gay society.
Gay marriage is thus inevitable.
But then, one might ask, if it’s inevitable, why shall it be IMPOSED on a society — like it was in this case in California by judicial fiat, or by any other mean?
219, 236. Chris A
I know Wikipedia is not the most reliable of sources, however they have this:
“In the United Kingdom, civil partnerships have identical legal status to a marriage, and partners gain all the same benefits and associated legal rights; ranging from tax exemptions and joint property rights, to next-of-kin status and shared parenting responsibilities. Partnership ceremonies are performed by a marriage registrar in exactly the same manner as a secular civil marriage. “
239 - I was hoping Southend would win as a Yorkshire derby will be even more nervy.
And Donny are better than Southend (and were better than us last time we played them).
Marching On Together
200
Aid is wasted on most of Africa…At least Aid as we give it…
Did I say we should stop all aid? Nope..
But the idea that we could intervene in Zim and produce a stable solution is risible… After all we left the place before and look at the mess it’s in….Let alone.. Lesotho, South Africa , Kenya, the Sudan, etc…
And anyone who thinks the MDC is going to bring peace and stability to Zim has more optimism than I have…
After all, Look at the success we made of Nigeria.. All that oil wealth and the population see none of it..
I’ve got some key by-election news from tomorrow’s Sun coming in about 30 mins. Stand by minor party candidate fans.
190. If the average height of a population increases then the gap between tallest and shortest increases too - it’s the nature of a normal distribution. Even if you have extremely redistributive tax rates it will do little to counter this effect. Unless you have a full out communist system you will always get incomes that are many, many orders of magnitude bigger than others. Tax systems “progressive” enough to have any real effect on that would be way above what Labour had last time they were in power (98%) and would cause economic collapse. It’s far better policy to try to make sure the poorest tenth of society’s incomes were growing as fast as possible.
Besides the “gap” between the poor and the middle class is less about income but more about exposure to crime, drug abuse, antisocial behaviour, healthy living, family breakdown, opportunity etc. If those issues were remedied I’m sure nobody would care that someone else was earning twice as much.
Is there a link to the ward by ward breakdown of the results- (i.e. the data that Sean has used for this article)?
Thanks
Gabble, I believe there is some very minor difference in legal status, but I can’t put my finger on what it is.
209 These donations have always been declared in full in the list of party donors published each quarter by the Electoral Commission. The question now resolved is whether they have to be disclosed again by the Shadow Cabinet member for whose office they are earmarked.
So no donations have been concealed, and there has been no sleaze (in the sense of personal gain).
Now the rules have made it clear that earmarked donations sould be disclosed that will happen in future.
245 by minor party do you mean Beauties for Britain?
Jack W needs time to adjust his pacemaker
241 - why for that matter should marriage (and its tax breaks) be imposed on society?
235 Well, the BBC will be restructured. Parts will be privatised, others closed down because of institutional bias and waste. Other parts, of quality and no bias, for example, the Daily Politics, will be retained in a much smaller, professional BBC.
Channel 4 isnt state owned. Privitisation would be difficult.
Based on the work by Dispatches, Channel 4 would be in line for public funding… not willy-nilly. Just targeted to promote quality.
Got it in one. I’m getting to use all my most searing political analysis.
253 - Might be delayed as I just realised it might not go live for a while. Sorry
O/T Peter from Putney, PP have just repriced the ‘Yes’ to the Irish EU referendum from 2/9 to 1/7. I saw you mentioned it the other day.
I was actually thinking of betting on the ‘No’ on the basis of 20 minute’s research… but not anymore. For info, there’s a pollster called RedC who will be doing fortnightly polls - here’s their latest: http://www.redcresearch.ie/documents/SBP11thMay08PollReport.pdf
244. I work in this area so I can tell you that current aid is structured a lot better than it used to be. Lessons have been learned. The problem is that ultimately democracy takes a long time to sink in, even in Europe: the French first tried it 1789 and they didn’t get it secure until after WWII.
Good article in “Politico” on Obama, polling and the Bradley/Yeldarb effect :
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0508/10397.html
……………………….
250 Test. Jack W is 105 and lasting the pace(maker).
241. “Gay marriage might lead to undesirable social outcomes; it might be part of a process of social breakdown.”
There is absolutely no evidence for this. You may as well argue that we need it to stop overpopulation!
122. These figures mean very little until a proper campaign is underway.
251 I shall type slowly because you are not very bright.
Society is made of people. All people have a Mother & Father.
Even if lefties try to deny the fact by removing the term Father from all government documents, it remains true.
You may not see it, you may try to deny it but it still remains true.
What is important is that even if it isnt important to you, it is important to the next Government.
re 224 but poor are with us always - which is one of the more self evident sayings in the Bible unless Brown has found a way of reducing the standard deviations of incomes to zero.
259 - They don’t mean much but they mean something. Usually before a campaign starts the imcumbent will have a big advantage, especially in a red state like Kansas. In a campaign the challenger usually goes up and the incumbent down. Anybody under 50% is usually judged vulnerable. For a Democrat challenger to be this competitive this early should be a massive worry for the Republicans.
251. Because marriage is by far the best environment in which to bring up children.
258 Some gay speaker on the radio once said Greek Society peaked with acceptance of Homosexuality within Greek mainstream Society.
The speaker saw no irony in the peak was followed by decline.
Just for the record, I dont care what people do in the bedroom. Its private and best kept so
262. I was referring to the national numbers, which are much more volatile than in individual states, due to the greater media access and news coverage.
260. Are you sitting down?
I have some news for you…Mothers and Fathers are not always married.
261 Brown believes if the well off are made poor, everyone will be earning the average salary.
263. Socrates: “Because marriage is by far the best environment in which to bring up children.”
No.
I loving and stable family is the best environment to bring up children.
266 Yes, I think it has something to do with free will.
Lefties may wish to ask someone what that means
264. Classical society, both Greek and Roman, accepted homosexuality long before its peak. The defining social movement before the decline was the spread of Christianity.
Not that correlation equates to causation.
256
Lessons may have been learned but until recntly BAE bribed countries to take its products .. and they were tied to “Aid”.
And Food Aid… kills off local agriculture.
And giving mosquito nets is misguided. We should give them the machinery to make mosquito nets..
Democracy in Africa? It will take centuries… I agree.
It’s all irrelevant anyway. Most Aficans will starve due to food prices in the next 20-40 years and in reality we can do little about it. If we encouraged agriculture… but we don’t do that in the UK let alone abroad.
Apropos of nothing (triggered by a conversation whilst in the US last week), I wondered just how much UK influence would be if we joined the US (as four states for the seperate nations).
It was triggered by someone asking how pivotal would UK votes be for a Presidential race if the UK got to vote.
So, using the current Equal Proportion method to allocate Representatives, and assuming:
- Number of Reps increased proportionately to increase in population (from 435 to 521)
- Latest population estimates used for State allocation (rather than 2000 census figures)
We get an increase of Electoral College votes from 538 to 636. With 93 going to the UK as follows:
England (1st of 56 states): 73
Scotland (23rd of 56 states): 9
Wales (34th of 56 states): 6
NI (44th of 56 states): 5
The next 5 Rep seats (and next 5 ECVs if the number were increased) would go to England, California, Georgia, New York and California (again) respectively.
There would be minor changes in other state’s ECVs (partly due to population changes and partly due to the reallocation because of the “ex-UK” states). For example, California down 2 to 53, Texas up 2 to 36, NY down 2 to 29, Florida up 1 to 28, etc (Utah would be happy - they’d finally get their 6th ECV).
If we can assume that all four ex-UK states would trend Democrat (although England would probably be rather more “swingable” than the others), that would be a huge boost to the Democrats. And as a swing state (although of Blue tendency), England would be very high in presidential candidates’ calculations
Incidentally, if the US Representative allocation policy were used for the House of Commons, a 650-member HoC would split (by country) as England 548, Scotland 55, Wales 32, NI 18.
Anyway - we now return you to your scheduled thread …
145. If they have it, they can show it. Until then, you have to assume its cack.
270 Dont tell me.. Tell the homosexual radio speaker boasting that the peak of Greek Society coincided with Homosexuality going mainstream.
re 229 and there’s plenty more borrowing which Brown doesn’t even believe exists - he is as much denial about PFI debt as he was over the 10p. It might be off balance sheet but it still needs to be paid for by our descendants well past the middle of this century.
And to think the man had the cheek to castigate banks in one of the many relaunch interviews this week for having got into the credit creunch mess by having too much off balance sheet accounting.
258
I agree; my point was that that view was not the point…
268
So
What is the Government doing to encourage “a loving and stable family - the best environment to bring up children” ?
Tax benefits?
Housing benefits?
It would appear single parents get a better deal… but maybe I misunderstand…
271 perhaps the Africans could grow their own food. Rhodesia was a net exporter of food. Zimbabwe probably was too at some point.
245. i assume its about yon ulster glamour girl?
277. Are you saying that single parents cannot create a loving and stable environment?
278. Africa would have done a lot better over the last twenty years had the West opened their markets to them, rather than put up trade barriers and subsidies.
The Slate “Hillary Deathwatch” nibbles away …
http://www.slate.com/id/2191490/
280
No.
I said there was an apparent discrepancy between the treatment of single parents vs two parents.
Asnwering a question with another is avoidance.
re 236 there are differences relating to pensions and dissolution. But it matters not even if there was only the thinnest of differences - different it would be. Could you imagine southern US states in the 1960s saying that they were going to retain the ban on mixed-race marriages but such people could enter into a civil partnerships instead. I would hope that we’d all be outraged.
272 Scary to contemplate, Andy :).
Last year, I did the analysis in reverse - how would the 2005 UK parliament look if the MPs were awarded on a winner takes all basis by county. Labour would still have won, but the key battlegrounds would have been quite different. The Tories won all the English counties south of the Severn-Wash line, except for Cornwall(LD), and also won Cumbria and North Yorks, and the Scottish borders. Labour won pretty much everywhere else.
Key battleground counties would have been Cheshire, Lancashire, South London, Staffordshire and East Yorks and Notts, which would all fall to the Tories on a 5% swing..
284. My belief is we should follow the Netherlands in having both a marriage regime and a civil partnership regime open to both heterosexual and homosexual couples.
Then homosexuals can choose to marry if they wish; and heterosexuals have the opportunity of forming a civil partnership as opposed to marriage if they dislike the label.
Cohabitation has increased dramatically over the past 30 years or so and a civil partnership open to heterosexual couples may allow some of these couples to register and regulate their relationship without the perceived ‘label’ of marriage.
But neither should be exclusive.
283. madasafish: “I said there was an apparent discrepancy between the treatment of single parents vs two parents.”
This government has always targeted their policies towards helping the child.
Where’s the discrepancy?
To repeat the rather crucial question posed by Max U at 247…
HAS ANYONE GOT A LINK TO THE WARD-BY-WARD RESULTS?
(Sorry for shouting but everyone ignored poor Max - too busy with gay chat)
re 286 Matt I entirely agree
Peggy Noonan of the “Wall Street Journal” on why the GOP faces grave problems in the Autumn :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121088369408596389.html?mod=todays_columnists
245. David Roe, where are you? Promised some exciting news from a highly respected source (tomorrow’s Sun) by 21.48 - eagerly awaited.
HUCKABEE
… joked about shooting Obama at the NRA association, today* :
http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/politics/2008/05/16/sot.huckabee.jokes.obama.cnn
He’s not gonna be VP Canditate….
Via : HotAir.com
Why are the British so bad at politics on the internet?
http://timesonline.typepad.com/politics/2008/05/why-is-british.html
Yep thats pretty f***ing bad!!
247/293 Max Allan
The wards data is on the London Elects website
http://results.londonelects.org.uk/Results/DownloadResults.aspx
go to London elects site - click on results then download scrol down and ward data is at the bottom!
I’m waiting on Cameron to start the revolution online, when the election is called we should have some kind of organizational website… I hope.
298. Yep, pretty dire!
Paul M and Scampi - thank you very much.
Read this. It is about the man who controls our lives and who must be removed from office. He is deluded.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article3949977.ece
240 Perhaps the Conservatives wont need to ‘restructure’ the BBC.
At the rate they are killing themselves and each other, there wont be any of them left.
304 a truly devastating and scary piece of journailsm. and he is the man with the finger on our nuclear capability. God help us!
277 Thanks - I’ve often wondered what the figures would look like.
C&N — in the Guardian
Is this gal making sense? :
“The feeling on the doorstep in Crewe yesterday was very positive. Experience gives you a feel for these things - it’s not scientific but it’s a sense you get. Yesterday, people were making a point of coming over for chat or to offer support. There’s a real and genuine warmth for the Labour candidate, Gwyneth’s daughter Tamsin Dunwoody. Yes, it was a hot, sunny day so the mood is good, but even the ice-cream man thinks Tamsin will win.”
…
“The real test for the Tories in this byelection is not ‘Can they win in a prosperous market town like Nantwich?’ but ‘Have they done enough to also convince Labour voters in an industrial town like Crewe?’ Only by doing both can they expect to get the kinds of swings Labour achieved in the 90s. My reading out and about there this week is that the answer is no.”
http://blogs.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/05/theres_crewe_and_theres_nantwi.html
The man is totally weird. In one interview, he blamed the Tories for the sale of gold, on the grounds that they had handed over an unbalanced portfolio of reserves. The gold sale was to improve the balance. It seems he can convince himself of anything to prove he,personally, is incapable of making a mistake.His problems are pathological, and the Labour posters (and the party) seem to be in denial.
308. Key is this:
“Lucy Powell is the Labour party’s Parliamentary Candidate for Manchester Withington.”
Paul Maslin of “Salon” looks at Obama’s path to 270 Electoral Votes and the swing states that may lead to it :
http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2008/05/16/270/index.html
308. Philippe - the article is written by Lucy Powell and it says by the side of it:
Lucy Powell is the Labour party’s Parliamentary Candidate for Manchester Withington
Hardly a neutral observer……
312 True but she is likely to be correct The Conservatives can build a big enough lead in the 3 Nantwich wards to have a comfortable win overall even if they finish a close 3rd in the 4 Crewe wards
313. Excellent. I hope John Leech is taking the oppotunity to work the streets in Withington, while she is pottering round Crewe talking Labour’s chances up.
Manchester Withington 2005 GE
Conservative: 3919 (10.5%)
Labour: 15205 (40.6%)
Liberal Democrat: 15872 (42.4%)
Green: 1595 (4.3%)
UKIP: 424 (1.1%)
Other: 443 (1.2%)
Majority: 667 (1.8%)
296 - Sorry, I’m still awaiting the pictures.
Manchester Withington 2001 GE
Conservative: 5349 (15.3%)
Labour: 19239 (54.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7715 (22%)
Green: 1539 (4.4%)
Other: 1208 (3.4%)
Majority: 11524 (32.9%)
She ain’t gonna win is she!
Bolted Horse - Channel Four is certainly state owned. It gets a subsidy by not paying for its broadcasting bandwidth and has copious advertisements.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Channel_4
308:
Replace ‘Crewe’ with ‘Broxtowe’ in that article and it would be barely distinguishable from Mr Nick Palmer’s canvassing dispatches as posted on PB.com.
Also a bit silly slagging off Mr Timpson for owning a Bentley I’d have thought - considering that’s the town’s largest employer.
316 David- Give us a clue!
318 Excellent!
Perhaps the people that make Dispatches can be handed Channel 4 and Channel 4 can become the new BBC.
316 - If the pictures arrive with the pages stuck together questions will have to be asked……
321 - I am surprised you did not know that C4 was state owned, given that you speak so authoritatively on broadcasting!
313. Mark you know more about the constituency than I and I will take your word for it.
To be honest. I got to the ice-cream man reckoning that Dunwoody would win and gave up! However I have read it fully now.
As I have said previously I think the Conservatives will win but I doubt it will be on an 18% swing (if it was Brown would be in serious trouble).
Basically, I now consider the article as somewhat of a damage limitation exercise.
Can’t see the C and N market moving. Guess no poll.
Is by-election news Boris resigning? Had a look at Henley Standard today. Boris is coming to Henley next week, and doing a school prize-giving and a few other appearances. It looks like a farewell tour.
David Roe’s reference to minor parties’ fans probably means the LDs, who have more interest in Henley than in Crewe.
324 - 18% swing and Brown would swing too.
i think the story may about ms garrett….
Just back from C&N. Interesting day. I was based in Nantwich, which is, as most people know, the part of the Constituency less easy for Labour.
A few impressions:
Labour’s anti-toff campaign has seriously backfired. People, who by no means all said they were going to vote Conservative were disgusted by it. Ms. Dunwoody’s latest leaflet is STILL going on about it and the Liberals are too.
Good walkabout in the town centre with William Hague, who seems to be genuinely popular with all types of person. Very friendly, very affable!
NO Lib / Dem posters at all that I saw today. None. I appreciate that there may be lots elsewhere, but I didn’t see any. I also only saw one LD campaigner, who scurried away when I offered him a Conservative leaflet!
Laour doing better on posters, and have clearly been leafleting strongly, but little presence in Nantwitch. Probably working Crewe as hard as they can. Neglecting Nantwitch could be a problem for them in the event of differential turnout…
Conservatives on the ground in good heart. There is the impression of a big change in British politics. Real optimism here.
Final health warning. This is a report from Nantwitch and not Crewe. But Labour are in big trouble for me to write what I have already said and the LDs don’t seem to have the traction necessary for one of their by-election spectaculars.
Perhaps it’s our turn?
328 - very interesting to hear.
Your upbeat tone is not too dissimilar from reports we heard from Ealing. I did not believe those reports. But I believe yours.
Mr Dale has posted on his return from his sojourn in Crewe.
http://iaindale.blogspot.com/2008/05/eric-pickles-is-my-twin.html
328.Thanks for that report David.
Iain Dale has also posted a diary piece on his impressions of how the campaign is going. He was very cautious in his previous reports, but now seems more bullish, also got mistaken for Eric Pickles!
Eric Pickles is My Twin
330.Snap
326. Indeed but that was what the Labour PPC suggested the Conservatives should be aiming for in the Guardian blog - as if! That would give them just over 50% of the vote and a 20 point lead over Labour (10k majority?)based on similar turnout. It’s beyonfd wishful thinking. As I said the blog article seem to be damage limitation to some extent.
332. ;o)
333 - anything over 7K will do for Brown.
335. Quite likely. However, I can’t see the seat swinging that much it. On the same turnout that would still be a 15% swing or so. My guess is that if the Conservatives it will be by 2k or so. Anything more is a bonus.
If it is more then its probably a reasonable night for the LD’s as well as they would likely have eaten into the Labour vote or the Labour vote has just stayed at home.
I don’t see any way that C&N is won by more than 3000 (at absolute most! I see 2000 as more likely) either way. My source in Crewe tells me that Crewe residents, at least, “ain’t going to vote Tory” in any substantial numbers. He could be wrong, admittedly, but he lives and works there and I (and most of us!) don’t.
So, as most people seem to agree, it’ll come down to differential turnout between Crewe and Nantwich. I expect Timpson to shade it - but I have a tenner on Dunwoody at 5/1 to hedge my pleasure, you might say…
David Roe.. you are keeping me up late.. its way past my bedtime!
re 337 well perhaps not, but if they don’t vote Labour either then Dunwoody’s toast
304.Very interesting analysis from Matthew Parris on one of Brown’s more unattractive political characteristics.
Times reporting that Unison to ballot 900,000 government members for ’sustained strikes’
Further sign that the government is seen as weak as Brown’s authority drains away?
337 Well if that’s what he told you, fair enough.
But people are less and less inclined to stick to a dogmatic view about one party or another these day. We’re more mobile. We’re all used to refreshing ourselves with a quick easyjet somewhere else these days, so there’s bound to be a few Labour spreading their wings… and for each of those, you need to find two new stay-at-home Labours…
OK Sorry guys took a while. The pictures took a while to get finished.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1174397.ece
Obviously, it’s a key manifesto article, highlighting her fiscal policies etc.
342 Sparky - thanks for your update earlier on the Irish EU Treaty referendum odds.
343. Wouldn’t it be funny if the lovely Gemma pushed Labour into 4th place!
341. Its no surprise the Unions are chiming up again. With the cost of living going up and a weak Labour PM in office, its pretty much inevitable, I think, that the Unions will now start demanding pay increases.
343. This might sound crazy, but if she keeps at it, Gemma Garrett could have some kind of a future in politics.
OK, it’ll be very hard for her outside of the party system, but I’ve actually been pleasantly surprised with the statements she’s come out with - they’ve been very considered and articulate and, with a bit of work and a careful set of advisors, if she ever wanted to move into the political sphere (and worked at it hard) she could do well for herself.
Just my two penneth, of course!
343 David - I can see you are heading for the heights within the Murdoch empire, none of the boring old Times Classified stuff for you.
At a very early stage of the Sun’s development under Murdoch, probably at the time of the 1970 General Election campaign, there was, I recall, a candidate rejoicing under the title of “Re-Classify the Sun as a Comic.” If memory serves and it’s a long time ago, during the same election campaign, there was also a candidate standing for the “Let’s have a Party party”. Who says there’s no fun in politics.
344 Peter, that’s my pleasure, I’m interested in it. I spent about half an hour reading the Irish press not really knowing left from right as per their usual editorial line. I gather that Ireland does pretty well out of the EU and that the major parties are all for it. Sin Fein and some farmers are against it. There’s much uncertainty within the elecorate as to whether it’s a good/bad thing (30+ don’t know in that poll).
Hardly a market at all on Betfair, but I snapped up someone who was laying less than PP. Only 20 quid.
There’s a big bit of me that hopes they vote No though. They’ve got form. But it would be biting the hand that feeds… in an uncertain world - unlikely.
I think that the Irish know they have done well out of the EU. Having said that, I wonder how many people think voting no will keep them as a recipient of aid as in the past rather than being a contributor as they are now? I’m sure either side could dpread some nice disinformation to swing things either way.
347 - Apologies for the Minister of Phwaor comment on the slideshow. I resisted mentioning men losing deposits, I thought that might be a bit Sunday Sport.
349 But it would be catastrophic were they to vote “No”, in that it would throw the whole treaty into chaos - I just don’t see the Irish having the spheres to do that.
It was a good value bet at 0.22/1, but obviously much less so at the reduced odds.
Labour has three core votes:
1. ethnic minorities
2. middle class lefties
3. white working class
Labour turned into Zanu Labour i.e Pilger Socialist, whereby the “west” is the capitalists and the third world is the proletariat. This makes the white working class into an anomaly. Kulaks. Just a matter of time before the white working class twigged this and that twigging has been slowly gathering pace for years mostly evidenced up till now by non-voting.
The communal identity politics pioneered by Ken coming home to roost.
Who gets those votes long-term remains to be seen. Tories should get the bulk of them short-term cos the lib-dems played it wrong the last 11 years. Lib-dems should be able to knock Zanu Labour into 3rd place a lot despite that.
~~~
Prejudice is proportional to contact. White working class don’t meet many toffs in urban areas. They hate middle class guardian readers more than Toffs. The anti-Toff strategy motivates Zanu Labour’s middle class leftie core vote not the working class ex-core vote.
Also there is more than one “Toff” caricature. Osborne looks a bit chinless. Boris is more of a hefty rugby type who likes a drink. Some caricatures aren’t a negative at all with ex-labour people. Some are a bit but not in the current context of blind hatred for Zanu Labour.
347 Unless I’m very much mistaken, David, you did make a lewd reference of this nature earlier, didn’t you?
Well, I yielded to test’s urging (:-) ) and did some phone canvassing for C&N - no, didn’t pretend intimate knowledgwe of Crewe, just said I was an MP who’d known Gwynneth. I’ll report neutrally and people can make of it what they will. This was a second canvass of people who’d said the first time that they weren’t sure, but who were thought to have been Labour before.
About 25% had now decided to vote Labour. About 10% had decided not to vote. Virtually everyone else claimed to be still undecided between Labour and not voting, some more convincingly than others (some were in my opinion clearly going to abstain). A fair number of people had pleasant things to say about Gwynneth, and a few had met Tamsin and were favourably impressed.
I’d cautiously suggest two things: (a) the rot has not been getting any worse - virtually none of them said they were thinking of voting for another party (unlike e.g. London where I talked to quite a few ‘Labour’ Boris voters) (b) the 50% ’spiral of silence’ adjustment in that poll described may be about right (about half will vote Labour in the end, half will stay at home).
Since I don’t know what proportion of the voters this group was, or whether the people I was talking to was typical, it’s all quite speculative, but Mike asked for anecdotal input. A second-hand item is that the LibDems think they’re doing much better than is generally expected - a LD friend asked whether he should help in Crewe or Henley, and was told with emphasis to go to Crewe.
I may go over Sunday and get a first-hand impression. Reports of the campaign suggest an Inner/Outer London-style strategy by the main parties - Tories focusing on getting the vote out in Nantwich plus some inroads in Crewe, Labour focusing on Crewe. Personally I’ll be surprised if we hold it, but think 5-1 odds are value.
239 Socrates it is equally dangerous to use one or two successes to justify massive unqualified aid to all of Africa.
I have dealt with a large number of Labour people on aid issues and they are often reluctant to see anything wrong in an African regime or programme until it is catastrophic. They visit African countries all aglow with righteousness. This is especially marked in South Africa where they mistakenly assume too often that the anti-apartheid ‘movement’ gives them special rights and privileges.
This comes from a cultural bias which assumes black is good and must be proved bad ten times over to be an appropriate judgement. Anything else is racism.
Most Africans see it much more realistically as they don’t carry that long time burden of the British left which placed so much emphasis on anti-racism which, with CND, had a profound long term effect on the left wing psyche.
This leads to too much tolerance of nonsense such as the SADAC paralysis on Zimbabwe and the inability of the African Union to deal with dictatorships. And, not least, acceptance of, and creation of, inappropriate and costly aid programmes.
I will just say ‘mosquito nets’. Paraffin on open stagnant water is cheaper and more effective and can be a purely local initiative. But as its aid to Africa it is lauded. Gordon Brown often seems to think that if he says ‘aid’ then everyone will agree with him. Not me, I am afraid, I have seen so much waste of money and opportunity for real development which has to be political and social if money spent is not to be ineffective.
Loadsamoney on its own is a sign of failure.
353 - Yes, but here in my personal capacity as an overgrown schoolboy rather than in my professional capacity as a sub-editor on the website of a well-known newspaper’s website.
350 David, do you know who the influential media outlets in Ireland are? I saw the Irish Times - cursory glance - they seem to be pro Yes. But is there something to balance that out? There must be I suppose. I saw the Sin Fein newspaper, but being English I still have problem with that, and haven’t clue what politics they got today.
354. Thanks, Nick. Interesting analysis.
354 - Thanks, Nick. I would agree that things have not got worse for Labour in the past few days. But they might get worse if the Tories are able to get their vote out better due to a more enthusiastic campaign.
It sounds like your canvassing is aimed at damage limitation rather than actually winning the by-election.
I can’t see you holding Crewe based on polls and your post above, but you might be able to avoid a big defeat. That’s not really all that good for Labour though as you still suffer the possibility of death by many cuts. It’s neither a win to suggest the rot has stopped or a huge defeat to push the party into big changes.
At least politics is interesting again. 2000-2004 was just so dull.
354 That’s a curious post Nick - you go on at some length explaining how the Labour vote is holding up, certainly compared with London. You then mention that the LibDems think they are “doing much better than is generally expected”, but studiously avoid any mention of how the Tories are faring.
Then, in the very last line, we get the killer quote: “I’ll be surprised if we hold it, but think 5-1 odds are value.”
BTW, I agree with your conclusion.
It seems that by election supremos for Libdems and Tories are both well padded gentlemen.
And Labour?
Another article favourable to Labour’s chances in the C&N by-election.
Labour haven’t given up hope in Crewe
“Steve McCabe MP, who is masterminding the party’s campaign believes Labour’s support is gathering pace.
“There is still a mountain to climb but even the Tories admit their share of the vote here is on the slide,” he said.
“David Cameron has been up here three times and every time he does, the Tory vote goes down - I’m hoping to get him up here every day next week.”
While insisting the Labour campaign is doing “quite well”, McCabe says the outcome could be too close to call.”
Right David, call his bluff and spend the last few days of the campaign up there…
362 Surely McCabe is saying exactly what you’d expect him to say - no more, no less.
360: Well, I don’t really know how the Tories are faring. I wasn’t talking to anyone who admitted to an interest in voting Tory (but that’s because of the sample - former Labour voters who were undecided), and I’ve no idea whether LD optimism is based on taking votes from us or them or both or if it’s just blind optimism.
And I wouldn’t really say I’ve proof that the Labour vote is holding up compared with London, just that those who hadn’t defected to the Tories at the time of the first canvass seem not to have done so since - there might have been a bandwagon effect but seems not to be. Also hard to conclude anything from my particular bit of the battlefield. It’s just a bit of the jigsaw.
The ‘killer quote’ is not based on more than the observation that the Tories have a big mountain to climb and seem not to be advancing much over the initial leap: I’d think they’ll win but 1-5 seems overstated.
357 - I’m not up on Irish papers I’m afraid, though I will be touring there next month in a car with my (Norn Iron) missus. I’m sure I will take the opportunity to listen to radio and read all the papers to get a decent idea for future ref. I am seriously considering moving there if I can get a decent enough job.
The Irish desk here have recently moved to Dublin so I can’t even ask them. Sorry.
I’d be very surprised if dave feels it necessary to spend any more time in C&N. It could send out the wrong signals, like “We’re struggling here folks”.
I predict
Con 26,737
Lab 3,220
LD 3,179
Grn 1,267
G.G. 474
OMRLP 418
UKIP 155
CToDaP 99
M.W. 50
ED 27
I predict a Conservative majority of between 3,000 and 8,000. If it’s less than 3,000 then it’s because Lib Dem is in second place.
366.I was being tongue in cheek when I suggested that, the now famous Smithson rule about Cameron’s media profile being linked to Conservative polling figures would indicate that he is an asset rather than a liability.
357 Thanks David, only bit of the British Isles I’ve never been to. Quite fancy visiting the west coast - I imagine it must be a bit like north Cornwall with nice cliffs and beaches.
I am surprised that the betting odds are Con 87% Lab 17% LD 4% instead of more like Con 87% Lab 2% LD 20%.
370 Yep, aka “The Ring of Kerry”, it’s truly magical!
Sporting’s C&N Index remains suspended - poor, very poor. When one enters into a spread bet, it’s important, nay crucial, that one feels confident of being in a position to trade out of it at will, or at least that any suspensions last for minutes, certainly not hours, whilst they adjust their prices as necessary after, say, publication of a poll.
Very good GOP ads AGAINST OBAMA: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ifEg1aq6Emo
374 - I wasn’t expecting to see many GOP ads FOR Obama…
355. Firstly, I’m not a Labour person - I’ve never voted or supported them. Secondly nobody has argued for unqualified aid - I have been as critical of despotic African regimes as anyone else. Thirdly, it is very possible to have effective aid even when dealing with bad governments by bottom-up approaches. Obviously you have to take precautions to stop aid propping up governments, but it is unwise and immoral to punish civilians because they live under an abusive goverment.
Fourthly, the use of paraffin not only fails to work if there are large sources of stagnant water nearby, but it is also an environmental and health hazard.
Finally, I will just say two million people on antiretroviral drugs that would have otherwise died had it not been for recent aid plans. That’s the population of Greater Manchester.
374. Makes me more likely to vote for him!
377. Can you vote in US elections if you are resident there??
378. No! Poor phrasing!
379. Not in national elections anyway.
This kind of cr*p from the BBC really annoys me, its not as if there isn’t plenty of amazing *factual* material that would make for a gripping drama. Another sad example of just how dumbed down and pathetic the BBC’s coverage of factual and fantasy politics has become!
The astonishing story of how Maggie Thatcher tried to seduce Edward Heath
355-Bravo! Totally true! Though I don’t doubt Brown’s commitment, there is a lot of white guilt going around.
Very very O/T I have made a qucik spreadsheet of London results per constituency assmebly member by new boundaries.
Several things stand out:
-Tories are not winning seats they won in 1992 (Harrow W, Brent N, etc). BUT demographic change works both ways (new Tory seats in counties…)
-They win the odd never Tory seat (Hammersmith)
-BNP gets surprisingly high totals in the B&D seats, outside chance of winning them at the GE?
-LDs win none, but I expect they will hold on to some (Simon Hughes, etc)
All in all, I think a good pointer to the GE with the usual caveats. I was lazy and only did direct Assembly seat totals. Am a bit pished after a double digit session, but am happy to send the spreadsheet to anyone who cares, try me at pethro at hotmail com, please put political betting on title so I know it’s not spam.
Should have wins/losses by the mornng when the sprogs wake me up!!
377 No, resident non citizens can’t vote in US elections. They are liable to US income tax on their global income though. Taxation without representation
383-Even green card holders are!!!
PETER OBORNE: How Labour became the ‘Nasty Party’
Peter Oborne is critical of Labour and Tamsin Dunwoody and Gordon Brwon in that order in the article.
385.Apologies for the typos and lack of punctuation too!
381 The BBC and History frightens me a bit. I know they binned a lot of stuff at one point. Who was in charge of destroying the national aide-memoire? Where’s the catelogue and what’s missing? They should make a programme about it.
(OT) Hooray! The most gorgeous person ever to have existed is getting married today