To me this is the number that clinches it
April 29th, 2008
Unlike 2000 and 2004 Tory supporters are sticking with their candidate
Every Tuesday for the last month or so YouGov have published the detailed data of their latest London mayoral poll. This fleshes out what’s already been made public and provides more information that can be helpful in forming a view of the race.
And what I have looked first for is the number highlighted above - what proportion of those who identifying themselves as Tories are supporting Boris Johnson. This could be critical because he is not going to win if he is not retaining the Tory vote.
At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.
Well the figure above confirms that Johnson is retaining 87% of the Tory vote - a proportion that has hardly moved since the campaign started. He is also picking up one fifth of those who have at sometime told YouGov that the party they identify with most is Labour.
The Tory vote is significant because traditionally it is more likely to turn out out. In my view Johnson is going to do it and current odds seem very attractive.
In the betting the money has continued to go on Johnson who is now at 1/2.
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Money by punters generally, or your money?
What would you value them with now with all the info we have?
Anything above 0.3/1 seems great value.
My comfort level on this race is to stake about £3000. I’m just about there.
My guess is that on Thursday Johnson could tighten to 1/10
It would be surprising if Browis did not win, when looking at your breakdown of the figures - good stuff!
The LD’s seem to be doing very poorly on the London election front. Just goes to show how they can be squeesed out by polarising personalities. Maybe the LD’s would have more to fear if the next GE had been Blair vs. Cameron rather than Brown vs. Cameron.
Nick Clegg seems to have been very passive in his support for Paddick. Maybe Clegg is being a bit more reserved as he has been very badly portrayed in the press as accident prone. Nick Clegg does seem to be apping Neil Kinnock!
Casino looks like he won’t have to eat his Trilby on Friday now!
Mike: How long does it take for London to declare a Mayoral result? What sort of time should we expect the 1st indications?
3) Martin Day. Are you going to do the Clegg = Kinnock thing EVERY day? I don’t think its gonna catch on FWIW.
O/T - Do we get PMQs tomorrow?
I think that this is a welcome divergence in partisanship:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7372823.stm
Surprised by paddick and livingstones jibes as i thought they were for London working together? Obviously Ken only believes in London working together if it is in his benefit!!!!
If Londoners choose Boris as Mayor this week, I would be glad to serve in that capacity.”
Mr Livingstone was said to be “furious” about the episode. It is against Labour rules to endorse opposition candidates, but Labour chiefs said they were “relaxed” about the visit and a party spokesman said Ms Hoey would face no disciplinary action.
Can’t discipline her cos you’re weak, weak, weak.
What convinced me Mike was that a majority, when asked, said it thought Johnson was serious enough to be mayor, that he now leads in every age group, and that the second preferences appear to cancel each other out. Most go to Paddick or Green/UKIP/BNP, while Johnson and Livingstone get about 15% apiece. My residual concern is that Livingstone - on the basis of the past two sub-40% turnouts - manages to mobilise his ethnic organised vote while Tories and non-organised ethnics stay at home.
3. The problem for Paddick is that he has no track record as a Liberal Democrat. Boris and Ken are clearly of their parties’ core - whatever the ups and downs of their careers - but Brian comes across as someone standing under a flag of convenience. Not something British voters are used to.
CR 4. It will be late afternoon/ early evening. We should get an indication from the GLA results which will come through first.
BTW CR - I tried to contact you by email and the message bounced. Could you provide me with a valid email address please?
I am taking part in a discussion on the polling with Simon Mayo on 5Live at 1.40pm
5. Every day? More like every ten minutes. I wonder whether he’s making any concessions to creative thought at all, or just wanders round mumbling “Nick Clegg… Neil Kinnock” to everyone who passes him in the street.
Livingstone is in no position to criticise Hoey for failing to act in accordance party rules. Remember how he became mayor in the first place.
Mike, do you think ICM do not want to take the risk of doing a final Mayoral poll and it coming out at odds with YouGov? Is this an admission they think YouGov is leading the way in this particular conest?
I still worry that “postal votes” see Ken home.
John Kellet: yes indeed. I dare say someone will bring up London.
Kate Hoey hasn’t endorsed Boris, so hasn’t broken any rules. As I said on the last thread, I’m relaxed about this sort of thing and think there ought to be more of it in both directions in British politics.
I see EDW reports that the voters are struggling to understand the ‘complicated’ Mayoral electoral system. Like it’s hard to count up to 2, right? Sigh, shows the struggle for us PR supporters.
@15:
Don’t worry. I’m sure CCHQ has a team of crack lawyers on standby to handle any postal vote ‘irregularities’.
10. Very interesting point. We haven’t any tradition of outsiders stepping straight into front-line politics a la Eisenhower or Berlusconi, except for the wartime businessmen-ministers and a few other business figures who’ve sat in the Lords.
14 - I would guess they have not been commissioned to do a poll. Why do one if you aren’t going to get paid for it?
5. To turn it on its head why do you not think that Nick Clegg is not like Neil Kinnock.
I think that Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock because both leaders seem to have shot themselves in the foot in the publics eyes as leaders on their first impression with the public. The LD split over the EU treaty, swiftly followed by 30 S***’s comment is as bad as Kinnocks misjudgement in falling into the sea
and the miners strike position. You lot just have not clicked it yet! If you don’t believe the Clegg/ Kinnock maybe you could see Clegg as being a lot less dynamic version of william hague. Baseball cap and section 28 or whatever it was - to be fair to hague though comparing Clegg with him is a diservice to Hague as Hague was very good but way, way too early in the job.
The split of London voters appears to be 41% Labour 28% Conservative and 10% Lib Dem (79% in total). Are you not worried that in the polling booth Labour voters will actually give their vote to Ken?
If someone votes 1, 2, 3 in the first column will that be counted - It does clearly show the voters intentions.
If so, this, and other people who haven’t understood the odd system of voting in columns, will slow the count somewhat.
11. Mike - Thanks.
Since I started posting here, over a year ago, I’ve always used a fake email address.
Is that a problem?
If so, I’m happy to stop posting if you don’t want me to - I don’t really want to reveal who I am!
Reference back to my discussion on the previous thread with Dan on poverty. Have a look at this blog from Anthony Painter of Tribune in the Indy. Something for both of us, but supports the view that ignoring Cameron’s words on poverty would be a mistake.
http://blogs.independent.co.uk/openhouse/2008/04/anthony-painter.html
19. For the glory of getting it right?
Several points Mike:
YOUGUV is the pollster consistently showing the biggest Tory lead. I know they claim to be the most accurate, but wouldn’t taking an average of the different polls be better? As for Boris retaining tory support, well that has a big effect on the headline figures as they are. And doing better than Norris doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll win. Ken is also well ahead on Lib Dem switchers.
Johnson could win, but the odds are too short.
Mike I know that the results are not being counted till the Friday but will there be any exit polls that you know of taking place on Thursday with the results being released that night?
21. Presumably those without a party ID aren’t included in the split above, but obviously comprise quite a big voting block.
OT. I couldn’t help but laugh when I just saw that Inside Track was going bust, thinking at last, no more of those annoying Buy To Let radio ads, but then I thought of all those poor sods they’d ripped off whose lives for the next few years are going to be very difficult. Tough times I’m afraid.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2008/apr/29/buyingtolet.mortgages
re 11. It is a rule of the site that to post here you need to provide a valid email address. This is not for publication and is used only if I need to get in touch with you as I did do last night.
10. I actually think Paddick is a good candidate, whilst not a natural LD i hope Paddick stays in politics as he is not scared to face down the established players! He has a seriousness that i think is good, authorative, no - nonsense. He has that other quality you get in the vast majority of ex-coppers - you can believe him.
I actually think the LD’s have not made the best of Paddick but it maybe that he has been crowded out by the two estblished players.
Casino Royale - You could always create a googlemail email address which didn’t include your name.
Are you very, very famous?
Just to add that this is from one poll showing a big Boris lead. No other poll has done so and so the probabbility of it being a rogue is high. And the good chance of a higher turnout makes predictions all the more difficult.
11 Get an anonymous email from MSN or yahoo, at least Mike can contact you and you can still remain unknown to him.
Staunch Conservatives are not voting to elect Boris, they are voting to get rid of Ken. That’s why the figures are so solid.
Latest on the elections…….
Patriot Canvassers from various parts of the country are reporting a real anger on the doorstep towards Labour. Some have even described the voters ‘erupting like a volcano’ when Labour are mentioned. They say they have seen nothing like it in the last 15 years. “Ten times worse than the reaction to the Iraq War”. These are not floating voters we are talking about - these are third or fourth generation Labour voters.
Some are suggesting that because Labour are starting from a low point it won’t be ‘that bad’ - IT WILL BE.
Good to see Gordon attacking us the Daily M*rror. Is there a better endorsement?
A couple of Patriot leaflets being used in Calderdale. Enjoy!
http://bp0.blogger.com/_03jj78rXncg/SBWbO2nCllI/AAAAAAAAAGk/ml8EnH5Ad_4/s1600-h/halifaxleaflet.jpg
http://bp2.blogger.com/_03jj78rXncg/SBbowGnClmI/AAAAAAAAAGs/UYtc7M6nBGE/s1600-h/halifax.jpg
22 - It’s easy enough to create a second email account under a non-specific name. Hotmail maybe.
10. Guido suggesting Paddick will be given a job as chairman of the police commission.
Some of you might be interested to know that in the Bexley and Bromley constituency, there have been many problems with postal votes tearing in the post, which means that envelope A (the one you put your ballot papers in) cannot be completely sealed with the sheet of paper on which the voter has to sign and put the DOB (wihch is itself attached to envelope A). The council advises that closing it with sellotape is acceptable, but it’ll be interesting to see how many are rejected as spoiled or tampered with.
re 26. I am almost certain that there will be at least one exit poll. Last time ITV had one by MORI which turned out to be fairly accurate.
The Christian Choice battle bus has just parked outside my window. It’s open top, with a scatty-looking old woman jiving on the top deck to some slightly dodgy music. Should I vote for them?
22. JUST GET A YAHOO, GOOGLE OR ANY OF THE OTHER ACCOUNTS AND MAKE UP A NAME!
20) Martin Day - whether he is or he isn’t like Kinnock its exceptionally dull you going on and on about your “theory” ad nauseaum. Sometimes as 12) says - multiple times in the same thread *sigh* I’m not going to mention it again - obviously just encourages you..
29. Understood Mike. Was this message giving me a bollocking for my language last night per chance?!
Apologies for that.. A bit OTT. I shall moderate myself in future
31. No, I’m not Icarus. Nothing excited like that! But I am well-known in the Tory party and I (regularly) heavily criticise my own side, pulling no punches. If discovered, this would put my position in the party in peril, so I’m not willing to post unless I can hide my identity.
How do I set-up a google account?
18. There have been one or two examples of MPs, but they have been mostly unhappy examples, John Davies on the Tory side, Frank Cousins for Labour…
Absolutely and totally off-topic, but I would like to wish all pb.com regulars and guests a very happy National Mango Day from
Bamako.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/08/africa_mali0s_mangos/html/1.stm
Interesting comment from Kate Hoey in her ‘clarification’ statement:
“This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson for Mayor. I will be voting for my party and Labour candidates on Thursday.
I am a Labour MP and I am standing for Labour at the next election. I support the Labour Government. I have and shall continue actively to campaign for Labour in these elections, not least for Val Shawcross, my local GLA member.”
There are 3 votes in this election. Party, GLA candidate and Mayor. The fact she fails to say she will be voting for Labour’s mayoral candidate makes her position very clear.
33/40 Marcus/Martin - thanks. I’ll get on it!
The House of Commons is very cliquey and outsiders find it difficult to adjust unless they start at the bottom: qv Cousins and John Davies from different parties. Also the political anoraks resent someone coming in who hasn’t delivered leaflets and canvassed on the doorstep before, qv the reaction to Tony Lit. Hopefully, the mayoralty will attract local worthies, already prominent and successful, to come forward. I think it will bring a breath of fresh air into British politics.
The Kate Hoey announcement is good news for Boris in terms of atmospherics but it’s unlikey to change things significantly. I get the impression that almost everyone who intends to vote has now decided. And, of course, lots of people have already voted by post.
Talking of postal votes, it would be interesting to hear from Peter Golds as to what the Tories in the East End intend to do to guard against electoral fraud. There must be significant concern about the activities of groups like Muslims4Ken and the Islamists who control the East London Mosque. I know there are plenty of Bangladeshi secularists and Sufis who won’t be backing Ken: is their help being sought in identifying dodgy practices?
5 Political capital- I can outdo Martin Day on Cleggover- I think he is the Uk political equivelant of Obama, much in a way the most impressive political leader out of the 3 we have got. A bit green, and a bit to learn, but he was a great choice by the LD faithful for a chnage.
Mike. BBC are doing a 6 hour programme on Thursday, starting 11.35. If there is nothing about the Mayoral and most counting is done on Friday, what on earth are they going to talk about?
49)
good stuff. Just hope you don’t feel the need to tell us that every. single. day!
re 49 Nick Clegg is no Barack Obama - not in a million years.
38. Surely there will be exit polls - or last minute polls - as these will allow the various pollsters to get their figures lined up with reality and thus claim the rubbish they produced during the campaign doesn’t reflect on their ‘reputations’.
52 You’re right Mike. Nick Clegg is twice the man Barack Obama is!!
Nick clegg, the political colossus of our age.
Tyson, are you joking? - a rare bit of ironic humour from one usually so serious.
Clegg is probably the biggest cul-de-sac the Lib dems have been down since, well since ever.
50. Someone in a pub somewhere. Sarah Teather on winning one council and losing 5. Harriet Harman on the Tories not winning in places they don’t need to win to win a GE. Dimblebore etc.
45 Kate Hoey didn’t stand against an official Labour Party candidate. Ken Livingstone did.
See Hills have odds up on turnout and first prefs.
Boris at 11/4 to be 35-39.9% seems value to me.
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO2110490
50 - we manage on here, don’t we?
49
I think he is the Uk political equivelant of Obama
Get help, fast.
49
Sorry, didn’t see the joke. My fault.
54, 55. Nick Clegg is no political giant BUT Brown and Cameron are not exactly great statesmen either. And if you remember where the Lib Dems have got under Kennedy and Campbell, then it’s clear that Clegg is a decent asset and (I think) will come good in an election campaign.
With a bit of effort, Clegg can become what Ashdown was: a solid third party leader who can enthuse his party, define a series of issues as its own, and make sure his party is heard. The potential is there; the respect will come over time.
Does Obama not say he cannot connect with the older voter?
Personally the only thing that impresses me about Obama are his speeches and Nick Clegg does not have outstanding Oratory skills. Clegg does not have the organisation (Internet) that Obama has or for that matter the public following.
You just reinforce the point that Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock and the fact a number of you wish me to be banned from comparing the similarities amuses me greatly!
When i have stated the reason why i think Clegg is like Kinnock on his political performance, nobody can say to the opposite. I would say that Clegg is a lot better looking than Kinnock plus he has his own hair and an English accent but one could say that Kinnock in falling into the sea was victim of circumstance. Clegg was a victim of his own vanity in admitting to s*x with 30 women!
43 - I remember a YouGov poll in 2004 that asked people who they wanted to be Mayor of London (un-prompted).
Both Greg Dyke and Richard Branson did very well indeed, as did Rudy Giuliani and Ken.
Makes you wonder if the public would actually be quite comfortable with a well-known businessman (Stuart Rose, Terry Leahy, Philip Green) as an independent - just less keen on a not-well-known individual suddenly joining a party to become Mayor.
62) Was not calling for a ban Martin - just a little self-regulation.
44 Mango - the fruit of the Gods. (Although the best I have ever eaten were in Bangladesh - very small and succulent, with a flesh that melted like sorbet!)
52- well that comment seemed to wind up an angry bear.
55- marcus- about 5% of my posts on pbCOM are serious
58- Aaron- very funny.
On the other note I prompted our friend Peter the Punter to provide me with your address. The cheque (rather £20 note) is not yet in the post. The eagle has not yet landed!
John O- if you are out there (HELLO) give me some odds on Gordon leaving and I may well bite.
66. About 1% of my comments are serious!
67. Nick Clegg is still like Neil Kinnock though!
Regarding Clegg - I just wonder why he got such backing. Ming obviously thought he was the future for the LDs, shadow Home. Sec within a year was it? Britton rated him very hghly as did most of the trendy media pundits. When I saw the leadership contest, i was surprised he seemed so, well, ordinary.
With Huhne or Kennedy as leader, just imagine how well they’d be doing?
@66:
You have to admit though, that whilst PBc is not a serious place, there are a few commenters who take themselves far too seriously for their own good.
Mr Senior? I’m pointing at you with my special pointing finger.
23 - thanks Baskerville - interesting stuff - sort of makes both our points!
61 Spot on, Jack. In 2012 when Cameron is in the mid-term of the Tory government Clegg with his group of 30 or so MPs will start winning by-elections, especially if the Labour Party is still trying to come to terms with defeat. But will this be more than Grimond, Thorpe, Steele, Ashdown and Kennedy achieved? I doubt it. He won’t be a disaster; nor will he set the world alight. An honest but respected plodder, and none the worse for it.
63 Boris, if elected, will be our first celebrity mayor. Without his telly work he would not be in the race.
70 Until someone can say The reason I got interested in politics was Nick Clegg even comparisons with Kinnock are overblown. Blair, Cameron, Thatcher and Kinnock all got people involved.
64. 70. If we are going to start banning people for being repetitive, or taking themselves too seriously, we won’t be left with many posters.
69. Or Cable for that matter - the good quality about Cable is he comes across as being different: Mature, Well established. He would be the leader the Tories really fear! Clegg is just a minnow - an amusing side show and i still notice that nobody has disproved my comparison of Nick Clegg and Neil Kinnock!
I would say this though, Brown is being slated at the moment but at least some people support him on the threads or try and pass some sort of qualification for his predicament but Clegg - nobody can say Clegg is doing well or made a serious impact!
@72:
Plodder? I reckon 30 counts at least as a brisk trot.
16 - “I see EDW reports that the voters are struggling to understand the ‘complicated’ Mayoral electoral system. Like it’s hard to count up to 2, right? Sigh, shows the struggle for us PR supporters.”
The problem isn’t with people being unable to count up to 2 - its there frustration that they are not trusted with being able to count up to 10. Almost everyone I’ve explained the system to has said ‘but why only a 2nd vote?’. Can you please explain why you imposed Supplementary Vote onto the London Mayoralty rather than true STV/AV?
66 - Majestic Tyson, Oh dear, I had rather hoped you’d forgotten about me. I’ve run out of matchsticks to do complicated arithmetical contortions such as ‘odds’. Hmmm. What might you suggest? Try and be generous in my favour as I only have one house. Actually, how about just sending the cheque now as a noble gesture c/o His Excellency Chief Muchlovemoney Memoryhazee, Peoples’s Exemplary Development Bank, Lagos, Nigeria.
Blair, Cameron, Thatcher and Kinnock all got people involved.
Kinnock certainly inspired millions of Tories to turn out and vote against Labour.
@77:
Labour were concerned about a Lib Dem/Tory runoff with true AV.
SV was designed to ensure that doesn’t happen.
69 - I entirely agree. Chris Huhne is an excellent campaigner, and an awkward enemy. Labour should be very grateful that they are only having to wage a war on one front against Cameron. If Huhne was leading the Lib Dems, and they were in the ascendency, I think we could be looking at some very serious poll numbers for Labour (like they’re not serious at the moment).
Of course, this could be countered that resurgent Lib Dems would just be denting the Tory lead, not diminishing Labour’s share any further, but I rather suspect that Huhne would have acted (politically) to the left of Clegg and Cameron, and tried to break into the Labour base that is still impervious to Cameron. From there, the strategy would have been to consolidate the centre left, try to overtake Labour nationally, and then wait 10 years to challenge the Tories outright through a moderately strong base in the north and midlands, but a decent if sporadic foundation for gains in the South.
Marquee Mark said earlier that he liked how huhne came across, except for the comment about being the only ‘national party’. There’s actually some truth in that. Labour are going to lose almost every non-London English seat south of Birmingham next time, whereas the Tories still won’t have much in Northern England, Wales or Scotland. The country is looking more and more geographically split - if a party was to have a massive cross-UK majority in the next 30 years, arguably only the Lib Dems have the broad spread of support to manage that. Good strategy, but they don’t have the right leader.
79 Kinnock motivated Labour to stay in the game, attracted lots of young politicians to the cause and indirectly was the father of the Tories’ greatest defeat.
If Clegg truly is Kinnock, soon he will be attracting lots of young talented left-wing politicians to the LD/anti-Tory cause. So far he’s done nothing.
Clegg is no Kinnock. shame.
81. You are right there - Nick Clegg was the awnser to the pre-cameron landscape. Nick Clegg in the Cameron landscape is now the problem.
Meanwhile over in Australia - senior conservative politician breaks down over sniffing scandal…
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/29/
wsniff129.xml
81 - And thus the creaking British postal system may have been responsible for changing the direction of British politics in the early 21st century.
unbroken link; http://tinyurl.com/66gy5e
Nick Clegg - The Lib Dems took their car to the garage with a broken sat-nav and collected it after a big bill with the sat-nav still not working but some nice new wheel trims.
He is the solution to a problem they didn’t have.
82 - I was present (as an Observer, I hasten to add)with a ringside seat at the 1985 Bournemouth Conference when Kinnock turned on Militant. It was absolutely magnificent. And the following day (much less reported), he turned brutally on Scargill. That was the stuff of leadership, albeit rather too late for maximum credibility.
Clegg, thus far, is no Kinnock.
82. Kinnock was a political failure of the highest order, and no amount of revisionist rambling will change that. He not only failed to win in incredibly propitious economic circumstances in 1992, but inspired a record Tory vote in doing so - a testament to his titanic personal unpopularity and his complete failure to detoxify the Labour brand (sic).
You could make the same kind of arguments about IDS, and they would be equally unconvincing.
82 79
Kinnock was brave and faced down Militant and all the lfeft wing idiots who wanted a socialists state with stalinist tendencies.
Although I did not like him, he fought and won what he stood for. And he did lay the foundations for Blair to win and Brown to screw up.
But he was a Welsh windbag when speaking..
Martin Day’s problem is that noone wants to employ him not even the Conservative party , if he had something to occupy his brain he would not spend all his time saying the same thing on here time and time again .
The Comres detailed data is very good for the LibDems , the 108 people who say they voted LibDem in 2005 grows to 139 ( 141 after weighting ) now . There is still a small movement from LibDem to Con of 9 voters but a movement of 20 from Labour to LibDem . ICM weighting would have given a published headline figure of 23/24% with this raw data Populus around 22% . The Scottish subsample surprisingly has LibDems at a very high 22% with Conservatives at just 15% .
90. Although I did not like him -
89 If you think Kinnock was a failure of the highest order you know very little about UK politics. He may not have made it to no10, but very few politicians do, they’re not failures either.
It is arguable the only reason Labour survived the 1980s at all was Kinnock. Sure he failed in 1992, but he only needed 10 more seats to deprive Major of his majority.
But who cares, it’s 2008, Kinnock is ancient History and the exciting issue of the day is Nick Clegg.
From previous thread. The Metro is an Associated Newspapers (Daily Mail Group) rag but they try cut out the bias and the long articles in favour of a straight down the middle short report style.
I don’t think they have a party line but I guess they must by default veer marginally right by virtue of being in the same building as Daily Mail and ES.
I’m still confused by the Daily Mail being pro Gordon. It can’t make much sense to its readers.
John O. If Clegg is no Kinnock …. perhaps we should start a Cameron is Kinnock campaign - similiar alliteration !!
Cameron - All righttttttttt …. but not too far right !!
70 - he appears to be impervious to your special pointing finger, Mr Coxall (and btw, put that away. This is a family site).
89 - I utterly disagree. His defeat of the hard left is what enabled Labout to regain a position where they could take power in the 1990s. He ran a hideous election campaign in 1992 but that does not make him a failure of the highest order.
Will Self’s childish HIGNFY performance remains the only time I have wanted to punch a smug g1t on behalf of a Labour politician.
Morus, the point that grated about Huhne was the notion of a party currently comfotably third in the polls claiming to currently be the only true “national” party. Sorry, but it is just the grandiose puffery that makes them look out of touch - and puts people off. I do think that they have the potential to supplant Labour in the next 10-15 years. I think that Huhne comes across as a better presence than Clegg to achieve that. But when barely one in six of the voters are LibDms, claiming that mantle now of the only national party just looks daft - and degrades the other points which, as I said, I felt he expressed well and in a manner which will have some broad appeal.
Rumours on some US blogs that the Rev Wright may endorse Clinton!!!
Wow if that happened ………………………
Basing it on the organiser of yesterdays meeting alleged to be a prominent Clintonite.
But only rumours folks
95 - What we want from you, old Macscallywag, together with Great Doge of Milan, is a joint ringing endorsement of the Glorious Hershamites so that we may smite our adversaries and sing, dance and frolic on May 2nd.
99 dave(s). Delicious irony !!
91.
I am not sure which is funniest your obsession with me or the B*ll*cks you typed below! 
Nick Clegg is still like Neil Kinnock though
Mark Senior is like the bloke in Coronation street: Roy who runs the local Cafe! 
100 John O. May your frolics be never ending and your adversaries be smitten in the ashes of their bar charts !!
50: “BBC are doing a 6 hour programme on Thursday, starting 11.35. If there is nothing about the Mayoral and most counting is done on Friday, what on earth are they going to talk about?”
Prof Anthony King on how the results show that the Tories are nowhere near a position where they can win a majority…?
Even if there are no results to speak of at that time, “a very bad night for the Tories” will surely be his line?
93 I remember Kinnock being the host on HIGNIFY.
It was like seeing a mouse trapped in a cage with four ferocious wolverines.
It’s the only time I felt very sorry for him.
95 Cameron is Ted Heath mk2.
BTW Stumbled upon this clip from the 2011 Tory Conference on Immigration. Things to come?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PFlNyqeeifA
104. what on earth are they going to talk about?
They could say that Nick Clegg is like Neil Kinnock!
89 I suspect that in fvive years time you would be able to re-write this as “-Kinnock- Brown was a political failure of the highest order, and no amount of revisionist rambling will change that. He not only failed to win in incredibly propitious -economic- personal circumstances in -1992- 2007, but inspired a record Tory vote in doing so - a testament to his titanic personal unpopularity and his complete -failure to detoxify- toxifying of the Labour brand.
99 LOL, DaveS!
I cannot imagine anything more likely to damage her chances. The guy has been a complete disaster for Obama. There’s nothing he would like more than to get rid of him - and to Clinton?! His ratings wold go through the roof.
105
Neli Kinnock was not nearly as funny as Roy Hattersley or rather the Tub of Lard.
104 - also, the BBC pundits noting that the Tories still have no councillors in Manchester, despite the fact that there may not even be any elections in Manchester on Thursday, and the Tory who does actually sit on the Council was a Lib Dem defector who doesn’t count anyway, and there is one who was elected in Eccles last year which is less than 2 miles from Manchester City Centre, but in Salford Council’s area, etc etc…
Cable must be kicking himself even more now that he decided not to stand.
I know that he regretted not standing when he saw how the campaign was unfolding.
As 87 points out the car has been washed and polished, but the engine is still spluttering.
Mike Smithson:
At the 2000 and 2004 mayoral elections there was strong evidence that significant numbers of Tories switched to Ken in the mayoral ballot. If there was a hint that that was happening this time then Johnson could be in trouble.
I don’t know much about the 2000 election but I compared the assembly votes with the mayoral vote from 2004 (no doubt there are many caveats) to see how close each parties Mayoral vote came to their assembly vote.
Ken Livingstone received 154% of the votes that the Labour Assembly candidates. That was some 240,740 votes, way above his majority in the 1st preference vote. So other parties did not poll as well in the mayoral vote as in the assembly vote and they returned Ken Livingston. However, of the parties it seems the Conservative vote held up the best of the other parties.
Here’s a list of the % of net assembly vote achieved in the mayoral election for each of the other parties (net votes lost to Ken in brackets).
Con 97% (19,624)
Libdem 86% (47,590)
UKIP 64% (65,480)
Respect 75% (20,570)
Green 41% (80,910)
Did not vote in assembly election (68038)
Of course this maybe complicated by the fact that the BNP did not run in the assembly election and they received 58,407 votes in the Mayoral election.
However, the Conservative vote seems to have held up by far the best.
How that aligns with your assertion above I’m not sure but it suggests there were not that many people who actually voted Conservative in the Assembly elections and then switched to Ken in the Mayoral election.
99 - Well he appears to be gearing up to damn Obama as a politician who ‘used him’, allowing Obama to clearly and unequivocally show that the two are very different people, but it’s a stretch to say he’d support Clinton, I’d say he’s more likely to damn all politicians.
On the Zogby poll (who need to be more convincing quick) it’s good to see them finally include Nader and the libertarian candidate in the numbers, they may not get a large percentage but a few points here and there are important.
103 - A people give thanks. Victory is assured. And if you could do something about “Kelvin Ate My Ballot Box” in Weybridge South, that would be an added bonus.
102 Well Martin , Roy has his own business and is not living off job seekers allowance and the taxes we workers are paying . Perhaps you can demonstrate the skills you can offer an employer by refuting the facts I gave instread of just calling them bolloc*s
106. It’s George Osborne!
98 - Fair enough! Having said that, I think that mantra is aimed at current Labour voters wondering where to go while their party is toxic. At the moment they consider themselves on vacation in the LD party - if they had a higher opinion of it, they might stay. I reckon this will become a regular refrain for Hihne over the next year or so.
99 - The Reverend J Wright has long been a friend of the Clintons. When the Lewinski affair broke, he was apparently invited to the White House to offer spiritual guidance to help POTUS and FLOTUS repair their marriage.
PtP - I’m not sure his defection would help Obama. Him shutting up would be swell, but although he carries problems, to have him desert Obama looks both like those who know Obama are losing faith, and also could bring a new (and even more dangerous narrative) which is that Obama is selling out African Americans by not adopting the mantle of the ‘old generation’ struggle. Obama can keep going with Wright keeping quiet - if Wright goes, then Obama keeps the unpatriotic taint, but also loses some of him base.
There is a pretty difficult headwind for Labour right now, it could certainly knock Ken Livingstone out… However at the back of my mind I am just a bit nonplussed by these polls. As we have noted, someone is going to end up with egg on their face. If BoJo wins, perhaps YouGov will claim bragging rights, but if it was only by say 2%, then in fact it would be virtually within the margin of error of Mori and entirely possible that the result was changed by the YouGov poll- this worries me. Meanwhile the coverage in the Evening Standard has been so partisan as to be ridiculous. I hold no candle for Ken, but I won’t buy that rag again.
Menawhile Martin Day- Repeating drivel ten times a day persuades no one about Clegg- it is just absurd. In fact how old are you?
Betfair has markets up now for vote share %age for the three main mayoral candidates.
116.
Roy is also too inquisitive for his own good! He also shacked up with a transexual! 
Anything you want to tell us mark?
86. Just appalling. And Western Australia is supposedly one of the states that is more likely to turn Liberal blue sooner than others!
No chance right now…
The guy is the embodiment of what Lynton Crosby identified as the state Liberals’ main problems here:
http://tinyurl.com/6l6h6o
116, 121 pb.com needs a bedroom.
As the rest of us continue to party with some odd dance moves, two revellers clearly obsessed with each other head for the bedroom. Step forward Mark Senior and Martin Day.
After Kate Hoey’s announcement I expect the markets will shift strongly towards Ken
[86] I think that this get my vote for the funniest political story of the year (Australia). Since I obviously have a very sick mind I was wondering what the UK analogue might be… Oh wooooah I just had a mental image of Anne Widdicombe… nooooooooooooooooo
79. That would make a good title for Kinnock’s memoirs:
“Millions of Tories are Voting Against You.”
Re Clegg, I saw him on Newsnight (last night was it?). I have to confess - he wasn’t quite as dreadful as I expected. He talked sense on immigration, albeit quite timidly. He was fairly vapid, but so is Cameron. He should get a haircut, but so should Brown.
No, he’s not quite the pointless cut-out-and-keep politician he’s painted to be - usually by the likes of me. But nor is he ever gonna inspire a generation like Obama (get a grip!).
Cable would have been the cleverer, riskier and more intriguing choice, especially in contrast to Brown and G. Lord Ponceyboots III.
But they are stuck with Clegg the Obscure and I guess there are worse fates. Like having IDS for a leader. Or Gordon Brown.
116 Fancy a bum?
What a great bit of radio that was.Simon Mayo stands head and shoulders above every other presenter in the UK and that Mike Smithso0n wasn’t too bad either.
121. the meaning of those particular smileys is now fixed in my mind - the only one laughing at one’s own joke
127. They are pretty popular in Australia…
http://tinyurl.com/6l6h6o
Telegraph reports on another bit of “unforeseen” consequences from Gordon’s las budget. After the 10% furore, the non-doms and the corporation tax u-turns we were left with Gordon claiming most people were better off.
Turns out that up to 7 million basic rate taxpayers will need to put more money into their pension pots as result of the 22% to 20% tax cut. Higher rate taxpayers continue to enjoy their (state an interest - my) 40% tax relief so are not affected.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml?xml=/news/2008/04/29/ntax129.xml
Gordon really did leave an unexploded bomb behind him didn’t he?
Mike was excellent on KMayo’s show. Now PB will have even more traffic.
131 - FFS - their tax relief is lower because the tax rate is lower. I dont see anyone clammering for an increase in the basic rate of tax in order to boost pension provision. Total non-story but 10 out of 10 for effort.
133 - have to agree. This story was put together by innumerates.
Brown will take no action against Hoey
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article3839083.ece
132. But this is a local site for local people. New people confuse things.:)
Martin day said
About 1% of my comments are serious!
Is that within the standard plus or minus 3% error rate?
Mr Smithson: is there a podcast linkage for your words of wisdom at Simon Mayo?
CQ Politics issues its delegate projection for Indiana. Based on a tight race it’s Clinton +1 !!!!! …. Oh dear !!!!
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000002712677
113 Andy Cooke worked out that in net terms, about 40,000 people who voted Conservative in the Assembly, voted for Livingstone as Mayor.
A news story in the Standard confirms what I had supposed, namely that voter registration in parts of London, and sections of London’s population, that would favour Ken Livingstone is far worse than voter registration among those sections that would vote for Boris Johnson.
140: Sean, how substantial is the difference?
140
Which is why I reckon YouGov are right more than the opposition pollsters: their respondents are more likely to be registered and turn out and vote.
OT but its now 5 whole days since Nick Robinson has written anything on his blog. With so much going on politically, one wonders… Has he got writers block?
78-John O- methinks you are playing your considerable talents down on the numbers front.
The 1985 Labour conference was one of the great political moments. I saw Kinnock speak shortly before at Trafford park, and he really was inspirational.
Anyway will give you 3-1 on Brown going- the number of properties in the UK I own against your 1 (or 4-1 if you want to include my place in Tuscany but that looks a little harsh on your account)
Shall we say 20 notes? I win- you give me 60 squidlies, or 80 big ones depending on which one you choose. You win, and you will find a glorious 20 pound note, the queen veritably smiling, coming through your letter box on May 2nd 2010 as you are consumed in the joy of seeing your party swept back into power.
133 Agreed they take home more after tax - Hurrah- but after increases in taxes on cars, on fuel, on cigs & booze that benefit is reduced; add in price increases across food and energy, credit squeeze and now a demand for higher contributions and the joy is rather constrained.
144 What do you do with all those homes, tyson? You can only be in one place at a time, right?
You and roger should get together and run a ghost town.
136 LOL!
@143:
No, he’s just utterly useless.
The way political news breaks is:
1) (Mike Smithson or Guido or Recess Monkey or Iain Dale, or ConHome) breaks the story
2) Nick Robinson denies it
3) Story turns out to be true
4) Nick Robinson back-pedals, says the story is true, but it will all blow over
5) Story doesn’t blow over
6) Nick Robinson back-pedals again, saying the story is not blowing over, just as he predicted
7) Andrew Marr laughs at Nick Robinson behind his back.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
116 Mark, is it really necessary for you to behave like a Focus writing Lib Dem?
Relax, there is a big opportunity opening up to the Lib Dems with the rapid decline in Labour support.
141 IIRC something like 8% of people entitled to vote aged over 65 were unregistered, compared to 20% aged 18-24, and 25% aged 25-34. The highest level of non-registration, 29% of the total, was in Hackney.
Slightly O/T but I gt my Mayoral Booklet last night, telling me all the names of all the people who might becomes The People’s Representatives.
Some thoughts:
1)
148 You missed the bit where Nick praises GB then 24hrs later has an exclusive soft touch interview.
144. If a Tory wrote that about number of houses…..
148. Very true. Perhaps he hasn’t been able to wrestle his head out of Brown’s arse for 5 days.
145. what’s your point? Is it that if you clutch enough tenuously related straws people will stop pointing out the factual inaccuracies and admit the sky really is on its way down?
151 - More perceptive than you probably intended!
151. I thought so too
149-When the very brilliant Roger posts it is get at Roger day. When the wonderful Mark Senior posts ditto.
The only reason I do not get the stick, is because I have turned against Gordilocks, which in turn makes me far more reprihensible, shallow, morally vacuous- ah yes just like Bullingdon Dave.
151 Morus. You are Boris and I claim a second thought !!
Noticed that in all the comments by Labour & sympathisers about Kate Hoey Wembley is mentioned. IIRC Kate Hoey’s gripe was that Sport England invested £120m in Wembley on basis the new stadium would be suitable as an Olympic stadium as well as a football ground. Her arguments with the FA & its friends were that they had taken the cash and come up with a design that was not suited to that role.
Norman Foster’s design was for a football stadium, proved massively expensive to complete and on a value for money basis what benefit did we taxpayers get? We have to fund another Olympic stadium, in Stratford, that will need to be converted afterwards into a football stadium for it to be of any use. Where is the “world class” athletics stadium Labour promised again and again.
Her crime was pointing out the failures of the FA & others involved and the failure for sport rather than football to gain any benefit.
158 …. on second thoughts I dont’t !!
157
well if Dave can’t end Pnch and Judy politics, what hope is there for the rest of us…
;) 
146/153- oh dear john O rather tempted me into that bear trap.
Badly done tyson.
by the way the place in Tuscany is rather small, no swimming pool, in a good lefty area, so I can sleep rest assured that I am a good socialist after all.
Comrade Tyson
Neil & Animal. Its not a non story.
Obviously, noone is going to argue for higher tax in order to offset against their pension contributions.
But many people will see themselve better off as a result of the tax changes. However some of that increase will have to go in pension contributions if they are going to stand still. It will come as a nasty surprise who many who are already feeling the pinch.
So the worst off are worse off. The next layer are a bit better off but some of it will be clawed back and most don’t realise. The top end are getting the best deal.
That was Gordon’s budget.
The changes in tax rates also affect alot of charities who are already struggling for money.
These are the facts of life.
” if a party was to have a massive cross-UK majority in the next 30 years, arguably only the Lib Dems have the broad spread of support to manage that. ”
This is because they have the luxury of being able to campaign on X while actually wanting / planning having done Y… and vice versa.
Locally, if the wind blows one way, they will quickly follow and change back just as fast. It doesn’t matter what the issue is.
They can do this regardless of the opponent so it’s effective against the left, center and right wing.
The Christian People’s Party and Christian Alliance is a little unweildy. They should have just called it The Christian Choice from the start, as the consituency candidates still sound like they are in the Life of Brian.
2) The irony of having a Unity for Peace and Socialism Party competing with Respect (George Galloway) and the Left List, when none of them have radically different stances than the GReen Party is delicious
3) Someone should tell Brian Paddick that Purple and Yellow is UKIP, and that the Lib Dems need to stop using four different shades of orange-yellow on one page.
4) Ken is avoiding any mention of Labour or the colour red.
5) A bloke called Andrew Constantineis running for the Free England PArty (their only candidate), even though there are English Democrats (and UKIP, and the National Front) running in the same race. How many nationalist parties does he think London can support?
6) The National Front are running in 5 constituencies and the BNP only in one. But then the BNP have a long list for the London-wide ballot, whilst the National Front have none. This is stupid.
7) There are a couple of idiots still - Veritas have one candidate, and someone for the ‘Animal Counts’ party (I’d like to see that - numeracy in non-primates is a key issue at London Zoo).
If all these small parties grew up, and combined into just three or four, they would do so much better. I would suggest
BNP-National Front
English Democrats-UKIP-Veritas-Free England Party
Green-Left List-Respect-Animal Counts
Christian Choice
These four groups could probably get a seat each on the London Assembly (maybee not Christian Choice). Instead they are wasting my time and their money, and proving why no-one should vote for them.
164- good post Matt, very true- it would be utter bedlam seeing the LD’s in power. Worse than Italy.
But Clegg is surprisingly good. Just watch my words.
151 - my finest ever comment!
re 22 I fail to see the logic in this. If you want to remain anonymous what’s the problem with using mickey.mouse@gmail.com as a valid email address?
167- 151- morus- can you explain?I am a bit slow at getting jokes. This one is far too brilliant for the likes of me.
165 - “These four groups could probably get a seat each on the London Assembly”
I’d say they are likely to get at least 4 seats between them as they currently stand anyway.
165 AFAIK, there was an informal deal between NF and BNP to give the latter a clear run for the list and Mayoralty, and the latter a clear run in 4 out of 5 constituencies.
Quite likely EDs and UKIP will manage 5% between them for the list, but not get over the threshold.
171 I mean to give the former a clear run in 4 out of 5.
re 50 and I thought Stuart D was being parochial! There are many other bits of England and Wales outside London, you know. And many of them are having elections on Thursday.
New poll (results will be weighted to a sample of all adults)
If there was a general election tomorrow would you consider Kate Hoey to be as mad as a jigsaw?
1. Yes
2. No
165 Morus. Animal Counts Party ??? …. I thought they were a Cameron breakaway appreciation group - thuggish aristos having a good time !!
163 - Sally C - agree on the charity point. This will hurt them at a time they’re already being squeezed (but this was not the point of the article). Agree also that the least well off are suffering most as a result of the tax changes, and the higher-than-officially-accepted rate of inflation. But it’s not because the change in tax rate has disadvantaged them from a pension point of view.
162. [ex Comrade]
Tuscany of all places? No that won’t do. Come the revolution you will in front of us [Tories!] when its comes to being put up against the wall and shot.
‘Oh but it doesn’t have a swimming pool Commissar… though it is in a very nice area’. No to the wall with you….
165- Morus- how dare you slag off the “Animal Counts” candidate. I wish I had one of those to vote for in Oxford.
By the way I was very tempted to put a Labour party placard in our front garden (out of sympathy, not because I would vote for them- too many of these silly “LD’s winning here” for my liking), but I think it would annoy my immediate neighbour
For a gmail (account) has to be set up as Googlemail in the UK but once set up answers to gmail (if you see what I mean!) just click on the word Mail at the top of the Google page and follow the links.
Latest Rasmussen Presidential and Primary Trackers :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 46%
McCain 44% .. Obama 46%
Clinton 41% .. Obama 49%
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll
173 But, tyson, the solution is simple.
Put the “Vote Labour” poster in one of your other 4 properties.
150: Thanks Sean.
Breaking News: Stupidity wins London election
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481101-details/%27We+don%27t+understand+how+to+vote+for+Mayor%27/article.do
“for someone like me it makes me less likely to because there’s so much more to think about than simply who you would want to be Mayor”
Words fail me.
124. I see our resident ‘I’m not an astroturfer, honest…’ poster has popped up again…
165 It looks all up for Labour in Newport. The local Tories are super confident that Labour’s majority will go. Expect a Tory-LD coalition on May 2.
Cardiff Touch and go for LD majority but they’re really close now.
177- it is quite small though. Breathtaking views of the Appenines mind.
175- a ha Jack W, oh yes those “Animal Counts- the kind you don’t want to me.” A joke I can get.
By the way are you not some geriatric Earl, or Baronet, or Duke of something or other with a 50,000 mile estate in the highlands, trying to reintroduce saber tooth tigers. My immediate neighbour is a Lord don’t you know. Why i feel I would be landed with an ASBO for fetching up a vote Labour sign in the front garden. Maybe you two are aquainted.
Evening Standard story re people not registered to vote:
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481168-details/Ken%27s+core+backers+are+less+likely+to+be+on+electoral+roll/article.do
These are absolutely massive numbers. I have posted on here many times before that there has been almost no increase at all in the electorate of England since 2000 despite a substantial population increase.
It is clear that this situation could have a massive distorting affect on all opinion polls, particularly those done by telephone.
Question for Mike S - Can you raise with all pollsters the question of whether they should ask about registration to vote in every opinion poll and adjust results accordingly so as to only include people who are registered?
186. One fantasist addressing another. We might as well start a therapy unit on here.
185 Punter. A Tory-LibDem coalition !!!
…. there’ll be a gnashing of teeth in Worthing and a wailing in Torbay !!!
Let peace and love prevail and Tory blue ‘winning here’ bar charts be forthcoming !!!
184. I still don’t fully grasp what an astroturfer is.
I had a carpet fitter come around the other day, and he told me that a woman in Chiswick had replaced her lawn with artificial grass. Is she an astroturfer?
Or is an astroturfer anyone who does not vote Tory?
(I’m not sure how the woman in Chiswick votes, I have never met her)
186: Brits buying houses in Italy pushing up the prices so the locals can afford them, even in lefty areas, for shame.
[185] Cheltenham I hear seems to be really close, but chances of Con overall control look poor. Tories may lose control of administration if the local PAB party loses 2-3.
186 tyson. I’ve been well acquanted with a sabre tooth tiger for some years now …. coming dear !!!
188- you can buy Lordships quite cheap I have heard.
Anyway- said too much today. I am but a humble socialist trying to make the best fist in life.
Ciao, Comrade Tyson
190. Astroturfing in American English is a neologism for formal public relations campaigns in politics and advertising which seek to create the impression of being spontaneous, grassroots behavior, hence the reference to the artificial grass AstroTurf.
The goal of such a campaign is to disguise the efforts of a political or commercial entity as an independent public reaction to some political entity—a politician, political group, product, service or event. Astroturfers attempt to orchestrate the actions of apparently diverse and geographically distributed individuals, by both overt (”outreach”, “awareness”, etc.) and covert (disinformation) means.
Astroturfing may be undertaken by anything from an individual pushing one’s own personal agenda through to highly organized professional groups with financial backing from large corporations, non-profits, or activist organizations
165. strongly agree about these little splinter group parties - as if it wasn’t hard enough to get enough votes already, they are competing with each other.
[190] Astroturfer: neologism for formal political (or other advertising) campaigns which seek to create the impression of being spontaneous, grassroots behaviour, hence the reference to the artificial grass AstroTurf.
The goal of such a campaign is to disguise the efforts of a political or commercial entity as an independent public reaction to some political entity—a politician, political group, product, service or event. Astroturfers attempt to orchestrate the actions of apparently diverse and geographically distributed individuals, by both overt (”outreach”, “awareness”, etc.) and covert (disinformation) means
tyson - it wasn’t a funny joke - I just pressed submit before I had typed the thoughts that I promised, and people were remarking that having absolutely no thoughts on the Mayoral election was a marked improvement on my usual submissions to pb.com. Not funny at all, though a little close to the bone!
On slagging off the Animal Counts candidate: ok, I hate animal rights more than Marmite, but that wasn’t my point. What I was trying to say is that if you care about an issue, you should run for office that has some say over it. Animal Welfare is scarcely a big issue in London, and when your complaints centre around inhumane farming, there could barely be a less appropriate place to stand.
They acknowledge that inflation is a problem only through the prism of ‘many struggle with the cost of vetinary care’ - when I read that, I dispair.
Setting up an animal NHS aside (no comment), their views on pollution, global warming, animal experimentation, healthy food in schools and urban greenfield preservation could be easily managed through the Green Party Agenda, and if they cost the Green PArty votes that could have got them an Assembly seat then they are exactly as stupid as I suspect them to be.
When will small parties put their agendae ahead of their petty vanities?
[195] Snap
189 It’s easy when they’re not competing with each other. While the yellow hordes hit Labour in Newport East the Tories are pummelling them in Newport West
196- but “Animal Counts” is surely a noble cause. It is unfair that such a party is not standing where I live. You Londoners- vote “Animal Counts”- for all the tyson’s and trotsky’s of the world.
And with that I am out of ere, for now!
Mike- you need to change the thread methinks
163. Sally C
pension contributions do not cost anything in tax. so it is indeed a complete non story.
199 Crackle
I find the response to my single posting yesterday depressing. I have registered in the home I grew up in and spend quite a lot of time in especially as my parents are getting old. I have regular meetings in London for work.
I don’t know who this other Observer who seems to have stirred the pot but I have been posting on and off here for at least two years. I doubt I shall continue frankly because it seems to be becoming impossible to have a civilised discussion.
I find the prospect of Boris winning incredibly bleak for the city I love, though I have little sympathy for Labour. Especially after he seemed so unconvincing at the hustings. As Humphreys said this morning, the Tory plan seems to be to impose members of a strange Oxford dining club in all the key offices of state.
And like another poster who was snapped at, I don’t know many who are voting for Boris among my outer London friends. But maybe the fact that Boris is holding onto the core Tory vote while a portion of Labour hates Ken will be enough … I remember Joan Ryan for instance barely containing her contempt for Ken when he was an independent, going far beyond the call of Blairite duty.
A shame there are not betfair markets on the control of local authorities.
198- sorry Morus am inclined to agree with you, sort of.
Love marmite though.
The problem is that people sitting in splinter groups tend to be plonkers. I got harrassed by a bunch of Greens at a town council meeting recently, asking me about my carbon footprint, and on those silly town council microphone things.
Really have to go now!
171 - Thanks Sean, that makes slightly more sense, although they must recognise that having two different party names will inevitably restrict the vote for both. If there platforms are similar enough to make way for each other, they should just merge.
I have slightly more sympathy for UKIP and the English Democrats - English Dems don’t see the Anglo focus in UKIP (as unionists) and UKIP have an infrastructure and brand that they don’t want to see subsumed. The Left List/Respect/Union for Peace & Socialism nonsense is classic though.
[203] Aardvark…no sorry… Pop (but not being personal…)
203-199- “pop”
had to be done! Ciao, finally
185 You mean that subtle and well produced Labour PPB hasn’t worked?
203 Pop
205 - See you later, Tyson
207-arghh- Cicero. You got there first you scoundrel.
204. All is not lost for Ken. He’s still very much in there. He could be the one bit of good news for Labour on Thursday.
And if he is, Brown should get on his knees and thank the man.
204. How was the response depressing? The London electorate has been defined as being the people currently living in London, not people who love the city, not people who have spent a lot of time there, not people who grew up there, but people who CURRENTLY live there. Lying to the authorities about the current living situation in order to get a vote is clearly wrong. For posters to point that out is not “uncivilised conversation”, it’s speaking a very fair argument.
There are plenty of barmy idiots on this site - particularly on the right, although some on the left - and their numbers do seem to be increasing, but some people paint fair and reasonable posters as creatures just because they express vigorous disagreement with their views.
204. BTW I think you should keep posting. There’s plenty of Tory pirahnas floating around these waters, but that makes it all the more fun.
It’s quite noticeable that Kate Hoey did not say that she will be backing Ken Livingstone whilst denying that she was supporting Boris. If you notice she only says that she will be supporting “Labour candidates” and only mentions the GLA candidate.
“This is not an endorsement of Boris Johnson for Mayor. I will be voting for my party and Labour candidates on Thursday.
I am a Labour MP and I am standing for Labour at the next election. I support the Labour Government. I have and shall continue actively to campaign for Labour in these elections, not least for Val Shawcross, my local GLA member.”
206. The NF regard the BNP as being far too liberal. When the two parties stand against each other, the BNP usually wins hands down, but there is unofficial cooperation on occasions.
216. Is that because the BNP pretend they don’t hate Jews these days?
O/T — LOVE IN THE LONDON TUBE
“More than half of Londoners have found love on the British capital’s underground railway system, an online poll said on Friday.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/lifestyleMolt/idUSL2575966820080425?rpc=92
187. It’s great news that people likely to support ridiculous parties like Labour, e.g. those from groups who are unlikely to be capable of sensibly casting a vote, are voluntarily opting out of elections.
This goes a long way toward getting the UK back to the middle-class, property owning franchise that provided such good standards of government in the 19th century.
16 - “Like it’s hard to count up to 2, right? Sigh, shows the struggle for us PR supporters.”
Some of us, of course, do not have PhDs in sums.
But we do expect MPs who do have PhDs in sums to be able to calculate quite quickly who will be poorer for the abolition of the 10p tax band.
Especially when other people actually do the maths for them. Remember “It’s therefore simply not correct that the changes penalise low earners” no?
The Wall Street Journal states that Obama holds the edge in super delegates :
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120942916625251325.html
213. Thank you for expressing my thoughts so succinctly.
204. You should continue to post, as more balance to the site is welcome, but you’ve got to see why your re-registering might have generated a fairly tetchy reaction from people on here (including me).
SEAN FEAR CALLED IT DAYS AGO
“The study found that every Labour-run, inner-city borough had poor registration figures. In Hackney, 29 per cent of those questioned were eligible to vote but unregistered, in Haringey 24 per cent, Newham and Tower Hamlets 23 per cent, and Lambeth 25 per cent.”
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/standard-mayor/article-23481168-details/Ken%27s+core+backers+are+less+likely+to+be+on+electoral+roll/article.do
204. Oh stop bleating and give over. You came on a political betting website and told everyone you were going to vote illegally, and immorally, in a city where you don’t live.
You then decided you had the right to lecture us Londoners, who actually do live here - and take the buses and walk the streets and drink in the pubs and hear that their neighbours were stabbed, robbed and beaten last weekend - on our choice of mayor.
F*** you and the high horse you rode in on.
And then you add this:
“I find the prospect of Boris winning incredibly bleak for the city I love, though I have little sympathy for Labour. Especially after he seemed so unconvincing at the hustings. As Humphreys said this morning, the Tory plan seems to be to impose members of a strange Oxford dining club in all the key offices of state.”
Do you ever wonder how the majority of Brits feel, when they see that they are governed by a strange clique of bizarre Islington lawyers who have decided, without asking or even warning them, to allow unprecedented and mass immigration - just because it fits their strange creed of “multiculturalism”.
Quite frankly, I’d rather be governed by a bunch of braying bluebloods than this obscure sect of self-righteous lefty gits.
That’s how bad Labour is.
224. That reference to the Bullingdon Club again suggests astroturfing.
221 YEAH, BUT…
North Carolina Gov. Mike Easley is endorsing Hillary Clinton — a state she will lose…–instead of remaining neutral…
Is it not a sign Obama’s road is going to be very very bumpy?
Astroturfer (n). One who does not vote Tory.
224
Generally, the fans and promoters of the multiculti ethos do not live in ‘ethnic’ neibourhood, but in mostly white, christian or post-christian, rich peaceful areas — unless they are naive youg students having read too much Negri or The Guardian and nothing else.
227. You aren’t convincing anyone, you know. Your ilk are simply too easy to spot.
226- You don’t want to read too much into one man’s endorsement decision, since alliances and frienships can go back a long way. But it is true that some Democrats, and particularly some southern Democrats, are starting to get a little nervous about what could be the “Reverend Wright Show” that we’ll be treated to in the summer and autumn, courtesy not of the Republicans but rather of Rev. Wright himself. This is a nightmare scenario that many Democrats would rather avoid.
226 PM. It’s a sign that Hillary has picked up less than a dozen Super Delegates since Super Tuesday !!
The Govenor is also in a small minority of declared SD’s in NC.
223. It’s rather sad that so many peple aren’t on the electoral register, but again I’m slightly confused as to why this should harm Ken. Surely people not on the electoral register are most likely those who don’t care and wouldn’t vote anyway. If anything, I would suggest a majority of them would prefer Livingstone to Johnson, but not much.
Unless there has been a big change in the number of unregistered voters since 2004, I doubt the polls are being mislead. the weightings should take these things into account.
225 - and those who are competing to replace him this time as the Dem nominee for Governor are falling over themselves trying to prove who is the most pro-Obama. It crystallises her problem, she is the past, he is the future.
Boris has just gone under 1.5 and Ken has hit 3.0.
217 That’s certainly one reason. Others include allowing the “half-w*g” Cllr Lawrence Rustem to be a member, allowing Jews to be members, dropping compulsory repatriation and the recriminalisation of homosexuality as party policies.
It came as a great surprise to me learn that former Councillor Derek Beackon is still a member of the BNP. He is, I believe, an Odinist, as well as being a Nazi, and I should have thought would also find the BNP too liberal these days.
Fine, I will delete my registry entry - not that there are elections out here - and ‘reside’ in London for a few months. I travel all the time, and have a family home in London, have employment meetings in London, spent most of my life there, does that mean I am unentitled to register? Surely votes should not be linked to property taxation.
What about all these expats who live abroad who still vote? That to me seems wrong, though the Conservatives seem very keen on it.
THE BETFAIR LONDON RACE MARKET
… has jumped from CAD 623,811$ (monday, before Don’s #26 post) to CAD 717,541 (now).
235 - An Odinist? What on earth is that? Someone who worships the Norse gods?
232 I’m not sure how well the weighting do take this into account. Almost certainly, some polling companies will have been surveying people who aren’t qualified to vote. I expect it will only make a difference at the margin, but that may be critical.
221- JW- just bumped into my neighbour’s wife, lovely, charming, lady; and it occurred to me that you must know my neighbour extremely well.
I guess you both worked for the same person in the 70’s. Ah the idealism of yester year. How time changes folk for the better- both of you in fact.
236. Case proved, methinks. Acres of the green stuff visible…
238 The same.
235
Foes do usually unite against a common, more urgent enemy…
233 - And keeping those numbers steady, here’s one for Obama. Less than 300 to declare now, frankly I blame all of this on the superdelegates, they are either cowardly or revelling in their position of power. I can’t see the system being retained in its present form, it smacks too much of patronage.
“Democrat Barack Obama’s campaign director in Kentucky says Congressman Ben Chandler will endorse Obama for their party’s presidential nomination.
Carolyn Tandy told The Associated Press on Tuesday that Chandler will announce his support for Obama at a midday news conference in downtown Louisville. Chandler represents a central Kentucky district and carries one of the most famous names in Kentucky politics.
The endorsement means Obama will have the backing of both of Kentucky’s Democratic congressmen leading into the state’s May 20 presidential primary. “
242 - thank you. The mind boggles.
234, 237
Boris now 1.45 with plenty to lay at 1.46.1.47,1.48 etc
£357k matched.
Oh look the forecast is rain! Another positive for Ken and at a unbelievable, bargain price.
I look forward to seeing you all on Friday for a slice of pie filled with the umbrils of venision.
Casino Royale, you will be given an extra large portion…
Am I the only one (other than one chap last night) to stick my neck out and say Ken will win?
247. What sort of weather do you need for people to travel back in time and register to vote ?
247. well pile some money on, his odds have never been higher
248 - peculiar.
“What about all these expats who live abroad who still vote? That to me seems wrong, though the Conservatives seem very keen on it.”
by Observer April 29th, 2008 at 3:59 pm
What a crass posting. If you don’t want me to vote, don’t tax me. I only get to vote in General Elections - and then only until 2010, when I am disenfranchised - and not in local elections.
249. 3.2 now
Serious movements going on on betfair ! 1.44 the blonde !
[228] Not so. The most anti mult-cultural folk in London tend to be the almost entirely white areas of Dagenham who elect BNP f**wits whereas the good burgers of Central london, which remain much more mixed, do not vote for the extremists. Westminister is very mixed, and solidly Conservative. Interestingly, my local ward is the whitest north of Hyde Park and the most prone to vote Liberal Democrat.
235. You mean the NF objected to the recriminalisation of homosexuality, or wanted it to happen?
Certainly there is a leitmotif of gayness running through rightwing politics.
One of the most curious things I have seen in my political life was a St George’s Day in a Covent Garden pub a few years ago. I was having a pleasant pint with some chums, then the pub was invaded by a troop of skinheads and bootboys, all members of some rightwing groupuscule: Combat 18, British Movement, whatever.
The lads were waving flags and chanting the usual songs. But they were kept in check by some old gay bloke: a prim, smug, oleaginous figure, sort of Peter Mandelson crossed with Himmler with a dash of weasel.
He was practically salivating over all the rough. Not a pleasant sight.
Strange bedfellows: gays and Nazis.
144 - As I fear that Trotsky, that two grand worth of Houndity, will be set on me were I to refuse, I have to comply. The pain of losing, though stark and enduring, will be partially offset by the knowledge that I have already effectively purloined one hundred smackeroonies from a generous, obliging and gentlemanly LibDem Parliamentary candidate who periodically communes with this illustrious site.
247. Bizarre attempt at ramping?
254 - How did you know he was gay?
257
Pillow talk?
(sorry Sean, couldn’t resist that one)
257. Just a wild stab in the dark. As they say.
258. But will he bite ?
229. You sir are wrong.
1. I am not nor ever have been a member of any political party.
2. I work in the private sector.
3. I am just your average, left-liberal white Londoner. There are many of us still here!
4. Astroturf is either a) something Luton Town used to play on. b) a horrible neologism.
Tory (n). One who believes all that doe not subscribe to his world view are ‘Astroturfers’.
259.
Did you really mean to say that Sean?
254 Martin Webster is gay. Apparently he was recently spotted outside “Heaven” nightclub wearing hot pants. The artist who calls himself “Tom of Finland” certainly fantasises about muscular young men in Nazi uniform.
251. so you vote in Britain’s best interests for the lowest possible taxes do you?
4:15pm New Thread: Ken announces that he is Jesus. What will that do to the numbers?
5:13pm New Thread: Shock MORI poll reveals that 87% of Londoners do not believe that Boris exists
9:44pm New Thread: Guardian columnist proves using science that voting Tory will actually cause Greater London to spontaneously combust. Spread betting markets react enthusiastically.
242. Sean Fear Re post 140 thanks for pointing that out.
I checked my figures and unless the sources are incorrect (BBC Election 2004 site for the assembly results, London Elect for the mayoral result) I make the totals Steve Norris 542,243. Conservative Assembly votes 562,047. The difference is 19,624.
I suppose the BBC figures could be wrong but by 20,000 or so votes for one party?
Happy for Andy to prove me wrong.
Either way by my calcs 40,000 would still represent a 94% retention rate which was way better than any of the other parties.
144 Tyson
‘Anyway will give you 3-1 on Brown going- the number of properties in the UK I own against your 1 (or 4-1 if you want to include my place in Tuscany but that looks a little harsh on your account)’
For a leftie you do like to show off your wealth,are we meant to be impressed? (most people that have wealth tend to keep quiet about it),you must be a new breed of ‘leftie chav’
75.In a recent opinion poll on who would make best PM Clegg score with 18-24 group was 15% as opposed to his average of 8%.
Rogerh
But will they be hoping for London to combust or not?
I think the jury might be out on that one.
265
Ha! I want more!
The Huff reports that former NC Senator John Edwards’s wife is trying to persaude hubby to endorse Hillary ahead of next weeks primary.
Why is John resisting ?? …. My guess, he wants to be Attorney General for President Obama and not a suicide foot note in wreckage of Hillary’s failed campaign !!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/04/28/john-edwards-endorsement_n_99074.html
266 A fair number of people who voted UKIP for the Assembly voted for Norris as Mayor on the first vote.
Well for Frank Booth, soon to be canned Tuna and that other Astroturfer who is protesting too much, look at the odds and pile in..I am following Mike S with head and heart luckily on this and see no way back for Leavingsoon..however until its actually announced there is much fear on this side and great dollops of wishful, almost idiotic, thinking from the delusional left.
263. And of course Hitler’s leader of the brownshirts, Ernst Rohm, was a known homosexual.
272. I intend to vote Boris first preference, English Democrats second. Probably.
267. “most people that have wealth tend to keep quiet about it”
nonsense!!
239 I wonder how many other firms are like YouGov and survey people who live outside of London for their mayoral vote?
238. I believe you get a fair few on the far right who enjoy German paganism on the basis that Christianity is a Jewish sect and Jesus was a bit of a pacificst wimp.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_democratic_primary
New Rasmussen poll for North Carolina:
Obama 51 Clinton 37
Obama lead down from 23 to 14 points since early April. This mirrors the change in the PPP poll which had the lead going from mid-20s to low double digits. It is also before her endorsement by the NC Governor.
17. Don’t worry. I’m sure CCHQ has a team of crack lawyers on standby…
I’m sure they do. Sniff.
274. Reminds me of a line from a hard case criminal in Layer Cake:
“F##king women is for poofs!”
255- will email Peter the Punter to confirm- he who now brokers such things.
I guess 3-1 is OK- Gordon walks before the next election then I am a glistening 60 golden coins to the better. He stays- and a 20 is flown to you at great speed.
267-simon- was baited a bit, and regretted of course. I am though trying to re-define myself as a mockney, though my better half doesn’t like to be called “muppet”. Chav, yes, well sort of in a chavvish kinda way.
278 - The racial element seems about right. 33% of the sample were Black voters and Obama won them 80-11.
274 I remember reading about how Goebbels threw a huge party at the time of the Berlin Olympics, at which hundreds of Hitler Youths, dressed as 18th century page boys, were present to serve up food and drinks. Many of the Old Fighters present were so overcome with lust that they attempted to ravish them on the spot, and they had to be rescued.
273 Sean fair enough. So it was churn to a greater extent? Anyway with a bit of luck UKIP won’t be the force they were in 2004. Its hardly been a good time for them recently.
274. SeanT surely that’s a bit pointless? Why not vote with your preferences the otherway round since it’s totally implausible that the English Democrats will poll higher than Boris and be able to benefit from your transfer.
282. Obama has been edging into the 90s with blacks recently, and it’ll probably be even higher in the South.
251 - ed - No, I tend to vote for the party I think will best look after the interests of my children and grandchildren (and, Dv, the great-grandchildren yet to come).
283. lol. You are a wonderful goldmine of curious anecdotes about the far right. I still remember the saluting cat story.
Is it a hobby? Or are you writing a book?
If not, maybe you should.
282 Kieran. Seem a wee bit low. My estimate is 35%-40% differential turnout and O-90/C-10.
271 She’d be a catch as an endorsement in her own right.
282
Looks like the GOP attack ad + this new Wright crazyness are having strong effects… He will win NC, though. It just will look very bad for him if it’s in the low single digit.
I have not seen anything published of the Yougov poll whixh asked me how I would vote in the Mayoral election . In addition to that there were some strange questions with a number of lists with brief descriptions of putative candidates for a local election asking which one you would vote for , for example
a) 65 year pld retired business man
b) 40 year old male postman
c) 48 year old female social worker
d) 36 year old housewife
286 - I can certainly see the undeciding Black voters going to him, giving him a 90-10 win. In this poll that would probably increase his lead from 14 to 17 points.
285. See you’ve lost me already there. What’s this about benefiting from transfers? All too complicated. And I have the IQ of a less intelligent Nobel prize winner. No wonder “ordinary folk” find alternative voting systems a challenge.
I will vote for Boris first cause I want him to win the most. I will vote for the Eng Dems second, cause I can’t think of anyone else who deserves my vote - simple as that.
273. There does seem to be momentum for Boris in the last 2 days. but based on what? One opinion poll that reported a very different vote share to all the others.
Boris is probably favourite now, but I think the margin for error in the polls is big.
As for being an astroturfer, I think that if you can be bothered to look back at previous threads I’ve been very critical of Livingstone. But what is the point of Boris? Just keep him on the tv.
288
Nazism is the far-left… They were socialist before they took power…
It was a planned economy, with a Volkwagon for everyfamily, and public healthcare, and compulsory public education for children.
Far, extreme Left.
274. SeanT - eventhough Matt O’Connor has pulled out so the EDP haven’t got a mayoral candidate?
283- an interesting programme on the Spartans last night. They commonly married in their late 20’s, or early 30’s after spending their early years affectionately with their male comrades.
It was a tradition for their brides to shave their heads to look a little less feminine. It was common once the marriage deed was done to return later to their males chums, and many spent years being weaned off their friends.
I think we are all bisexual to an extent.
And on that note I do have to disappear
293 Kieran. Indeed. I also saw a report the other day that early voting in NC was huge !!
289 - None of the polls have shown that. Is this just your gut instinct? PPP, Rasmussen and SUSA all have Black turnout at etween 30 and 35%. I think I read somewhere that the average Black turnout has been about 160% of their population. NC is 21% Black, that rule of thumb gives a 34% of the Democratic voters.
Also, this is open. Is there the chance of more GOP mischief?
292: Mark, it was an internal poll - you won’t see any it published.
299 - Remember the huge voting in Texas? People like Kos thought it would benefit Obama greatly and was predicting up to a 10 point win. In the end the polls got it about right IIRC.
297. Hah. Is that true? I just read an interview with him - he seemed quite fun.
Oh well. Who shall it be then? I’m bored of UKIP. The greens - who I have nearly voted for before, in a spirit of contrariness - totally lost my interest in their absurdly presumptuous endorsement of Ken. The BNP are too gay. Ken is out for obvious reasons. Paddick is embarrassing.
Maybe there will be some weird religious party who will enjoy the honour of my 2nd pref.
273. For the record I have always said Boris will win by piling up votes in the Tory suburbs outside postal London and become a Doughnut Mayor.
As for the Astroturfer allegations and protesting to much. I am just an average Jo. Just someone who likes Ken and doesn’t want to vote for a clown.
But I’m bored now. Bye.
253 - Precisely. The BNP is very weak in those areas where, for instance, there is still a majority white population, but a high non white or migtrant presence .
300
Yeah baby! Operation Chaos is in full spin…
296. If you define the left-right spectrum along economic lines they would have been centrist or centre-left at most. And that right-left should only consider economic views isn’t widely accepted anyway.
288 Thanks. I do actually find fascism and nazism very interesting, not least because of the antics of the people who join such movements.
Did you know, for example, that Colin Jordan had to resign as leader of the British Movement after being caught stealing a pair of red ladies’ panties from Marks & Spencer?
303. You never struck me as the type that followed organised religion Sean.
287. so why should you get your own vote?
296. i wondered how long it would be before 288. triggered this tiresome and irrelevant argument
202. Ed .If you want to pay £100 into your pension fund and the tax rate is 25% you pay £75 and the rest is made up by reclaimed.
If the tax rate falls to 10% you pay £90 and the reimbursed tax is £10. Therefore if the tax rate goes down and you want to keep paying the same amount into your fund you have to pay more.
308. I am religious. I don’t think anyone would ever accuse me of being organised.
310 - So when does your campaign to increase the basic rate of tax start?
312. Quite. This particular line of attack on the 10p tax con does seem rather disingenuous.
311. As in a mystical deism sort of way, or a “Jesus is my Lord and saviour” sort of way?
Feel free to ask me to butt out - everyone’s entitled to keep their religious beliefs to themselves.
310. OK, so you may have to adjust the admin side of things.
You pay £100 gross either way, so it does not cost any more or any less.
310 - Aaaargh! You pay less tax on the gross pay before you receive it! 100 - 25 - 75 = 100 - 10 - 90 !
What Sean you believe that there is actually a higher being than you?
295. Frank, “astroturfer” was certainly not aimed at you but at the others who seem to have appeared in recent days so apologies if you took it the wrong way. You have been very clear for a number of weeks that you think Ken will win) I think you are wrong and you seem to be implying that the 11% yougov is a rogue when in fact its pretty much in line with all the other yougov’s i.e a clear Boris lead between 6-13% but I understand your points.
Regarding Astroturfing, last night there was even some moron who I would have bet a tenner was actually from Muslims4Ken pretending to be a Conservative voter and bad mouthing Boris. Its quite odd and I am not too sure what they are hoping to achieve..surely not ramping as its so transparent as to be useless.
296. key features of fascist political philosophy include:
Anti-unions/Anti communist/Anti socialist, maintaining a monoculture, strong leader, Very culturally conservative, Zero tolerance crime policy, Social policy centred around the family, Strong military and Focus on the nation state.
Those are hallmarks of right wing politics. However, i think it is too simplistic to simply pigeonhole the nazi’s and fascists into one band of politics. I think both the left and right claim the fascists are simply the opposing brand of politics in order to abdicate responsibility. That is simply lazy, they were right wing in some ways and left wing in others.
300/302. Updated 2007 AA is 23% of population and estimated 25% of registered Dems. Conservative differential turnout of 140/160% gives me 35/40%.
My early voting comment was related to interest in the primary not directly pro Obama.
318. Indeed. What’s the betting the number of mystery new posters drops dramatically by this time next week?
303. I think Matt O’Connor has endorsed Alan Craig.
317. Do you remeber Winston Churchill’s phrase?
‘I’m ready to meet my maker, but whether he’s ready to meet me is a different matter.’ I wonder if Mr T has the same idea?
323. At least that’s better than Disraeli’s confession of faith:
“I am a self-made man, and worship my creator.”
314. The former - “Einsteinian Deism”, as Dawkins calls it.
Though I have a strange soft spot for holy-rollin’ American evangelism. Many of my Cornish ancestors were born again Methodists, some were full-on founding fathers of the Mormons. So it’s probably a genetic flaw.
Anyway enough of this - I see Labour has passed its kinky p0rno law:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/7364475.stm
perhaps the most idiotic law to cone out of this idiotic government. Not only does this law criminalise the passive viewing of violent but consensual sexual images - ridiculous enough in itself - it criminalises the viewing of fake images of sexual violence, staged by actors. So you can now be prosecuted for looking at photos of a staged event that is not criminal in itself.
Just…. so…. stupid… brain… hurting…. help…
315 The argument is about perception - the Treasury figures say average taxpayer better off, Gordon expected a feel good bounce for the May 2008 election (cancelled due to adverse weather conditions). But in the real world you get a bit more take home pay followed by a letter saying can you pay more into your pension pot please. Result no appreciable increase in voter affection.
That little increase in take home pay in a broadly revenue neutral budget (slightly tax raising in fact) was funded by hitting the low paid with loss of 10% tax rate, who also don’t feel happy.
So after all these changes those on £50k plus get a little bit more cash each month - I’m sure they will notice and appreciate it.
228 Thanks Philippe, I never realised that Tottenham is a “white, christian or post christian, rich peaceful area”. Should do wonders for local house prices!
320 - According to Wikipedia it is 22.3%! Doesn’t make a massive amount of odds. 160% only gives 36% though, would need nearly 180% to get up to 40%. I just wondered why you think the pollsters have all got it wrong? Especially PPP given that NC is their home state (although they did admit they suck).
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2008/04/29/to-me-this-is-the-number-that-clinches-it/#comment-647738
320 - According to Wikipedia it is 22.3%! Doesn’t make a massive amount of odds. 160% only gives 36% though, would need nearly 180% to get up to 40%. I just wondered why you think the pollsters have all got it wrong? Especially PPP given that NC is their home state (although they did admit they suck).
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_carolina#Racial_Makeup_and_Population_Trends
Apologies for the duplicate!
310. But you’re paying less tax, so you afford the extra 15 quid.
326…and of course one’s tax relief on pension contributions is 40%.lovely jubbly!
255 - Ta.
309 - Why shouldn’t I?
326. Well my perception is that it is an argument brought up either in complete ignorance of mathematics, or desperation to add a political spin to something which is politically neutral. Or both.
There are many valid arguments to be made both for and against the 10p tax changes, and that isn’t one of them.
[319] I think placing Fascists or Communists on the same spectrum as democratic parties is pretty misleading. In fact I think Commies Fascisti or Nazis (or Zanu-PF) are all authoritarian, tyrannical organisations. If you do put them in the same spectrum as the Democratic Socialist-Social Democrat-Liberal-Conservative, then you need not just a left-right axis, but a libertarian, authoritarian axis too.
326 - Utter nonsense unless you pay every penny of that slice of your income which is liable to the basic rate of tax into pension which just about nobody does. Yes, of course an income tax cut doesn’t affect that bit of your income on which you effectively don’t pay tax. Go figure.
312 has it right of course. The story is deeply disingenuous BS to anyone numerate.
Sorry - should be to 281
Hermann Göring on the 300 hundred Spartans…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gRCEgtrQmL4
328 Kieran. Is the Wiki figure 2008 ? …. Sorry but I’ve mislaid the original source.
Can you imagine YouGov or ICM saying “We Suck” after Thursday !!
My main rationale is that the pollsters have tended to underestimate Obama wins in states where he holds strong pre vote leads and that this has been mainly caused by their underestimation of black diffential turnout.
332 - Well, you paid 40% tax on the income so get 40% relief. And if you’d paid 20% tax on it, you’d get 20% relief. You can argue against it as a practical (perhaps saying it provides the greatest encouragement to save for retirement to those who are least likely to be a drain on the state and is thus somewhat inefficient). But it is not “unfair” in any obvious sense - if the idea is that you effectively don’t pay tax on pension contributions then it clearly achieves that aim.
326. No appreciation for me..I see it as a return of a very small part of the literally hundreds of thousands of pounds he has grabbed in the previous 11 years and then apparently flushed down the water closet.
It reallly is the worst of all worlds for Brown..he makes efforts to appease the middle classes who dont like him anyway and are wholly unappreciative and in doing so he pisses off his Broon sponsered client state..
Can all thoese who hailed Brown as a great political startegist please come to the front of the class and explain yourself..yes that inlcudes you Toynbee and White…
Brown is nothing but a bully…
Frank Field dropped his 10p tax amendment last week and went round proclaiming that Brown would compensate every one of the 5.3 million losers and backdate it. It’s clear now that that was very far from the truth.
So, was Frank naively suckered into believing Brown’s lies or is he back onside with the government and doing their dirty work?
I hope it’s the former. Whatever the truth of the matter is, I doubt that disenchanted former Labour voters will fall for it as eagerly as Frank appeared to do.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/politics/threelinewhip/april08/frankfieldmayregretconcession.htm
“Does Frank Field now worry that he and his 10p tax rebels might have bought a pig in a poke when they agreed to drop their amendment on which the Government faced defeat?
In the Commons on Monday night, MPs still found it impossible to extract any firm promises from ministers about the scale of the compensation package promised to the five million made worse off by the removal of the 10p tax band, or whether it would be backdated.
This so-called deal began to unravel within minutes of its announcement last week and looks no clearer now……..”
332. yes I thought that - although if any party will stick their neck out for a return of the 83% tax band they will have my vote, just for the sake of my pension
326 - the flip side of that is that the government is taking 40% off the income you don’t pay into a pension scheme. You don’t thank a burglar for only taking *some* of your possessions.
Sorry, that last post referred to 332.
325: ‘…it criminalises the viewing of fake images of sexual violence, staged by actors.’
Out of interest, what if the viewer is also the person taking part? Could you then be prosecuted for looking at yourself partaking in a consensual act?
Question - is the Boris move from 1.55 to 1.45 a reaction to Mike’s “fair value” estimate of 1.3 or is there anything else new today? - could just be “pile on” I guess…
If Brown didn’t intend there to be ‘losers’ from the 10p scrapping, why did he introduce it? Presumably any compensation will not match what people would have made under the previous system - otherwise they might as well go the whole way and re-introduce it.
Brown knew exactly what he was doing and who would lose out.
341 - I would argue that the pension tax relief system is unfair, wasteful and untargetted actually. But it has nothing to do with the Budget 2007 changes and that Telegraph article was ridiculous.
New thread
349. if he didn’t know what he was doing - he and his advisors were incompetent. It isn’t rocket science.
350. surely not paying tax on pension contributions is the ultimate example of fairness?
347. As I understand it, if you distributed these images, yes you could be prosecuted.
How stupid is that? The same lunacy pervades the child p0rno laws. If you are 17 years old you are, of course, allowed to have sex with your 17 year old girlfriend.
But take a photo of this and you are manufacturing child p0rn, and you can be prosecuted. DERRRR.
352 - There was clearly a push to simplify the tax system. Presumably the calculation was that the basic rate change and the tax credits would be enough to satisfy most people (I imagine most of the money raised came from higher earners which they were not too worried about). And indeed last year it looked like that would be the case. 12 months later…
Darling pledged that “for pensioners aged 60-64, whose incomes tend to be more stable, we have put in hand work to see if those households who have lost out from the removal of the 10p starting rate of income tax can be helped through the mechanism that already exists to pay the Winter Fuel Allowance”
Bit of old pony in there, actually, since the overwhelming majority of the 64 year-olds are already taken care of.
The tax-free allowance for taxpayers over 65 in 2007/8 was £7,550.
Increased for inflation for 2008/9, it should have been £7,840.
It was actually increased in the budget by £1,190 to £9,030.
Therefore, pensioners in receipt of the age allowance are virtually unaffected by the abolition of the 10p tax band.
But everyone reaching the age of 65 on or before 5th April 2009 is entitled to the Age Allowance for the WHOLE of the tax year, irrespective of the date of their birthday.
So everyone who was aged 64 on or before 6th April 2008 is entitled to receive the allowance from the START of this current financial year.
Presumably Darling’s knowledge of the tax system is as suspect as some other MPs known to us.
Or are we simply storing up a little spin for the pre-budget statement in November?
By the way, Winter Fuel Allowance has to be applied for, is not available to everyone and the rules are not clear cut.
See: http://www.thepensionservice.gov.uk/winterfuel/faqs.asp#q6
Cnn reporting Obama picking up another super delegate, Kentucky Representative Ben Chandler. Is this a daily drip drip effect?
They were claiming 241 at the end of last week, if they were right they now have 243, Yes
353…absolutely right!
303. Here’s the link
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_O‘Connor
He’s still on the ballot though.
OT - INDIANA & NORTH CAROLINA
The Auld Jacobite posted somewhere in the thicket above a link to Congressional Quarterly projection of Indiana Democratic convention deletates that gave Clinton +1 net from the Hoosier State.
CQ’s assumption was that Obama would carry two congressional districts (northwestern IN & Indianapolis) and lose the other seven. Note that a key consideration was fact that 8 out of 9 CDs are electing a even number of delegates to the national convention, meaning that the most likely outcome from these districts are split results, for example 2 for Obama, 2 for Clinton.
With respect to North Carolina, the Governor’s endorsement of Clinton is helpful to Hillary, while the reingited Wright controversy is harmful to Obama. Clinton will clearly do very well in a lot of rural counties from Kitty Hawk to the Smokey Mountains. But the following factors are helpful to Obama:
–Extremly strong support from African Americans; and the Wright flap will help to soldify this support and further boost Black turnout
–Significant network of universities and colleges, including major state schools such as University of North Carlina, located in Chapel Hill, Orange County (can here Yokel cheering!) and also large private ones such as Duke, Davidson and Wake Forest.
–Sizeable, affluent suburban population in Charlotte, Winston-Salem, Raleigh/Durham area.
Note that North Carolina is divided into three major geographic regions, stretching from the Atlantic to the Appalachians:
1. Tidewater: old plantation region, with sizeable Black population, plus lots of conservative rural Whites, retirees (overwhelmingly White, many originally from north of the Mason-Dixon line), active duty and retired military (Fort Bragg, Camp Lejune) Also includes three urban/suburan areas: Raleigh/Durham, Wilmington and Fayettville
2. Piedmont: the heart of NC’s population and economy, traditionaly wielding the balance of power in state politics. Lots of rural turf, including large rural & semi-rural stretches devoted to the automobile (ranging from NASCAR to chop shops). Dominated by Charlotte (the state’s largest city) and its environs, the Research Triangle centered on Winston-Salem (which has diversified beyond cigs), and a number of medium-sized cities.
3. Mountains: the NC highlands includes natural wonders such as the Great Smokey Mountains, and lots of slightly lower but still spectacular (or at least very rugged) terrain running from the Virginia line in southward to the Georgia line. Largest city is Asheville. Which by the way is the county seat of Buncombe County; it was a congressman from Asheville noted for his florid oratory who gave the words “buncombe” and “bunk to the English language.
I wonder if there is a systematic flaw in YouGov’s London polling. Looking at the detail of pre-2005 election polls, YouGov consistently showed the Conservatives leading by margins of up to 11 points, and an average margin of 7 points, with the worst poll showing them level. Yet the popular vote in London gave Labour a 7 point margin over the Tories. In no other region was the direction of the vote so wrong.
While I accept that this may be reading too much into the detail of polls, which may not be statistically adjusted at that level of detail, it perhaps points to a risk that there is a systematic problem with YouGov’s sampling in London.
Apologies to all if this is already well-known, but I thought it was an interesting point in the debate about YouGov vs all the other pollsters in London.
34.
BNP= patriots? So the BNP now have the sole monopoly on patriotism? Pity it doesn’t extend to your mayoral candidate’s affairs.