The Saturday night polling thread
April 26th, 2008
Will there be more gloom for Gordon - but what about Ken?
There are a number of key polls expected in the tomorrow’s Sunday papers. One of them - MORI for the Observer - was spotted by an eagle-eyed PB contributor last night and we got news of the Tory 9% lead at least a day ahead of anybody else.
There’s also going to be a full ICM national voting intention survey in the Sunday Telegraph - and already there are hints that this will show a bigger Labour deficit than the 5% that was reported in the Guardian poll on Monday evening. A piece on the paper’s blog says it “puts the Tories, once again, clearly in the lead.” At this stage there are no numbers.
Meanwhile another ICM poll of marginal seats for the News of the World is being reported by Iain Dale. This says Tories “would sweep away 131 Labour MPs and win a healthy 64 seat majority.”
It was a similar ICM marginals poll last October that is said to have influenced Gordon Brown’s U-turn on a November general election. That suggested that 49 Labour seats would go.
These, it should be noted, are surveys of marginals and to try to extrapolate a national party share split is misleading.
…more follows when the news comes in….
Mike Smithson
MessageSpace Advertising
Election headlines from yesteryear…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/1983.png
[The Times was on strike in 1979, so sorry no headline]
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/1974O.png
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/1974F.png
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/1970.png
So what do we guess? Comparing polls like for like I would guess Labour -3%, Tory + 1 or 2%, LD + 1 or 2%.
LD polling now steady at 17-20%. Reassuring after two pretty dire years.
Reposted from last blog
Here is the NOTW piece with link to full data on the ICM marginal poll:
http://blogs.notw.co.uk/news_of_the_world/2008/04/latest-3.html
A quick calculation gives the following % from the weighted figures
Con 43 Lab 37 Libdem 19
Whilst this no doubt has all sorts of caveats with it. I compared with the 2005 vote for the same sample and it gave figures of
Con +8 Lab -11 LD +2
As posted on previous thread this is a marginal poll so the headline calculations I have made and posted above should be treated with caution. There will be all sorts of caveats that could be put on them. I think they do give a flavour but nothing else.
3 You did miss the others - think its closer to 38:33:17:13 (quick calculation of weighted voting figs)
3. That would suggest that the swing in marginals is bigger than the national average according to ICM surveys.
re 3. I do not think you can make that extrapolation. These seats are all Labour held and are not representative of the country as a whole.
Does this mean the Ashcroft money is making a big difference ?
My ARSE is gearing up for a busy evening …. it’ll be like the mobile loo at the world baked bean eating contest tonight !!
6 If the marginals come out as 38:33:17 would expect national lead to be higher than in last Guardian poll.
7 Think the money is overstated - it’s the professional campaigning that Ashcroft demands before the committee gives out cash (not all his own) that would make the most difference.
4. Where did you get the others from?
6. Mike I realise that this is not a national poll and applies solely to the marginals. However comparing with the 2005 voting pattern of the sample I think you can infer the type of swing that is happening in the marginals but only in the marginals.
Of course I could be wrong. In anycase if Ted’s found the ‘others’ figures then its a mute point because my figures will be wrong as he points out.
7. Looks that way. More to it than money of course.
7- do not think Ashcroft’s money is making the blind bit of difference.
You cannot buy the kind of impact Uncle Gordon is having on the Labour party. Priceless, absolutely priceless.
7.”Does this mean the Ashcroft money is making a big difference ?”
Adam, according to Fraser Nelson Lord Ashcroft is making a difference where it matters most.
New poll of battleground seats shows the Tories on course for a big majority
“Now and again, you hear grumbles about how Cameron should get rid of Ashcroft. Answering the odd embarrassing question about his tax status is a small price to pay for the kind of organisation that can bring a result in the marginals, creating a different weather system in the very places it is needed most. But as I say in my column tomorrow, at this rate it won’t be Ashcroft wot won it, it’ll be Brown wot lost it. And how.”
6. Mike - I see the ‘other’ figures that Ted has pointed out and they are not repeated for the 2005 figures consequently the whole things rubbish! Can you delete my post at 3 as its nonsense!
More haste, less speed (or something like that)!
;0)
4. I agree.
The weighted base figures (now) are:
Con 229 Lab 197 LD 103 Oth 72
against 2005 figures of:
Con 186 Lab 255 LD 92 Oth (presumably)68.
So the swing in these seats is approimately
12 - and then add back the 10,000 pound communications allowence that each Labour MP in a marginal is spending. As they have to say on the literature that it comes from this allowence, some of the leaflets and mail shots have been more than a bit political.
11 The table 1 shows voting intentions as 229 C, 197 L, 103 LD, 72 Other Party. Vote in 2005 is 186, 255,92 (so assume others were 68).
17. Do’t need to tell me. Our Labour MP has a new website, reports ect (all done out in red) all funded by the taxpayer. We’ve had to spend thousands on ours just to keep up. Utter abuse of the allowance but we’ve let everyone know via the local paper.
19 - hope you check the links as No 10 site (funded by ourselves) last week had a link to the Labour Party Local Elections site shown as Gordon Brown other speeches.
On funding how come we taxpayers have to fund Gordon Brown;’s ever growing team of PR advisers?
19 - If it is being paid for by tax payers money, it should not be party political. It can say the government have done this, and the government have done that, what it cant do is say things like “but if the Conservatives or Lib Dem ran the country, this would happen”, etc. I understand that the Fept for finance and admin at the House of Commons are receiving complaints on a very regular basis - and MPs have “been given advice”!!
Any truth to the rumour that the Ashcroft money is now being targeted for the next tier of marginals - Bolsover and Barnsley?!?
15 The more haste was appreciated as you found the link to the data
19 - but surely Tory MPs put out glossy stuff at public expense to shore up the vote. Mine certainly does, in a three-way marginal.
18. So it would suggest about an 8.4% swing Lab to Con in these Lab marginals with the LD’s up nearly a couple of points
Wot no Mayoral polls?
I’m not gonna have any fingernails left by Thursday…
The time is now right to lump more on Boris to win, as I think the price will contract by Monday.
I have always maintained that “The Sun” newspaper has a huge influence on the way elections go and I cannot see them backing Ken!
When do you think Gord will be replaced Mike? as there again seems a good betting opportunity.
27 - The Sun has already announced it is back Boris. I have a theory that the Sun would back the devil if they thought he would win. They only back winners !
The Sun’s take on the marginal poll. It has a little more information.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/article1095282.ece
You can work out the figure for others in 2005 .
The full figures / changes are Con 38 plus 7 Lab 33 minus 9 1/2 LibDem 17 plus 1 1/2 Others 12 plus 1
On the other thread Nick Palmer said, “The 10p issue had vanished like a summer storm”.
Yeah, that’s right, everyone has swallowed the nonsense just as the Labour MPs have.
Nick, reality must intrude sometime, surely. Perhaps with this set of poll numbers?
19,20 It pushes the boundaries an probably just stays the right side by carefully wording the language. Last throw of the dice though.
24. Is that through the communications allowance. Might our position is to scrap it.
Jack W - glad to see you returned unscathed from your Garden Centre expedition - possibly the most boring way to spend a Saturday afternoon known to man and certainly very taxing on a 105 year old. BTW, when is your 106th birthday so that we may commemorate this in style?
32 - I dont think it should be scraped. But it should be used for what it was intended for. MEPs have a much bigger allowence for this and they do not abuse it. People have a right to know what their elected officals are doing. Not everyone has access to the web - my mother would not know how to turn the computer on, yet alone look at her MPs website - which is down at the moment, as it was invaded by someone placing Back Boris logos and a false press release about defecting.
34. Far too open to abuse though. Maybe a Parliamentry report every year but I’m sure 10k isn’t needed.
That’ll be a story when those expenses are printed. Esp if marginal MPs are using more than everyone else.
ICM’s managing director Nick Sparrow said: “Labour will have been heartened by ICM’s recent national poll, suggesting that they were recovering from some dire poll figures which had an 11 per cent deficit against the Conservatives,” he said.
“But today’s poll suggests that the situation in the marginals is worse than is indicated by the national polls.”
Clearly, we now have an explaination for the last out of kilter ICM poll. It didn’t pick up enough people in marginals! Tee Hee.
29 Do you think the polling companies have agreed among themselves to publish the occasional poll to raise the Bunker’s spirits - we had Mori going against trend earlier this year and Gordon’s team started briefing on possible spring 2009 election. Last Guardian poll brought back a spring in their step and they brushed aside YouGov with a “its YouGov” - now 131 MPs have the Black Spot.
35.the allowance is an incumbency cushion and the first government to introduce it will get a benefit though eventually they’ll get throw out as well. I dont object to good old fashioned stamps and paper as that can get real infomation to people and generates avlotvof case work. But my MP’s reports are decked out in Yellow ( quite properly ) and just have puff pieces.
37
It isnt going to make loyalty to Brown the first priority either. Its not the end of the beginning, its the beginning of the end.
I think the “summer storm”(Nick Palmer) has returned with a vengeance…
35 From three line whip on the £10,000 allowance (the equivalent to paying 50 ex 10% tax band losers their compensation)
“Home Secretary Jacqui Smith recently used some of the cash for a double-page spread in the Redditch Advertiser, managing to include no fewer than sixteen photos of herself .
But what a pity that the former teacher didn’t check her spelling. The feature was headlined: “Parlimentary Report”.
My MP had 24 photos of himself in a leaflet that I think was part of his communications allowance.
Double page spread of Jacqui Smith - phwoooar!
40
I blame the current edukation sistem for the spelin.
Iain Dale says that the situation for the liberal democrats is a “little unclear” and that while they will lose seats to the Tories in the south they will make up for it with gains from Labour.
I don’t see how this poll can provide any information about possible tory gains from the liberal democratss in the south, as they are obviously not in the sample. I guess the spinmeister is using this “unclear” form of words because among those 131 gains are several liberal democrat gains from labour.
33.
Jack W was 105 sometime between Jan 1 and March 31. He confirmed yesterday that he was born in 1903…..
Forget MORI, Gallup, Jack was the original pollster.
INDIANA WANTS ME?
Indiana 2nd congressional district Republican congressional candidate Ron Zirkel was chief speaker last week at banquest in celebration of Hitler’s birthday sponsored by the “American National Socialist Workers” Party.
Apparently the Vice President couldn’t fit this gala event into his busy schedule.
40/41
She may as well spend it now, as she is a certain gonna at the next election……I foresee a Portillo moment!
Apols to Julian and anyone who followed my advice today and backed Spurs to beat lowly Bolton. Unfortunately they could only manage a draw - you just can’t get the staff these days.
31
Yeah,but these same Labour MP’s were cheering Gordo 12 months ago when he announced the scrapping of the 10% rate,so their either very thick or just thought in their arrogance that the public wouldn’t notice.
LOL @41! I like ‘em buxom too…
33 PfP. My wallet doesn’t feel unscathed !!
January 15th for the 106.
re 37. Ted. No. The pollsters report what they find and to suggest they do otherwise is quite a serious allegation. we have transparency through the BPC and I feel comfortable with all of the main firms.
Mrs Dale also have a scottish voting intention by YouGO for the Sunday telegrah. SNP 35 Lab 28 Cons 22 LD 12 Green 3.
however no changes, details as to wehether its a whole poll or subset nd whethr this is GE or Hoyrood, constituiency or list.
The tory score looks very high.
Whats your laest Indiana prediction King Jack?
Latest Gallup Presidential and Primary trackers :
McCain 44% .. Clinton 47%
McCain 45% .. Obama 45%
Clinton 47% .. Obama 47%
http://www.gallup.com/poll/106825/Gallup-Daily-Clinton-Obama-Tied-47.aspx
45 - In fairness, should add that Indiana GOP officials have been strongly - and I belive sincerely - condemning Zirkel for this and previous outrages.
52. It’s a tiny sample, MOE ~ +/-7%. Ignore…
52 Those are just the Scotland subsample figures extracted from the last Yougov poll based on only 200 odd people .
test
53 - Don’t know what pb’s most distinguished (or at least obvious) centennarian thinks, but am personally willing to stick my head above the parapet . . . and predict that Ron Zirkel will NOT win the GOP nomination for Congress in CD2 . . .
“We cannot see how what we are doing is the same thing al-Qaeda is doing under a different color flag, calling on the name a different God to sanction and approve our murder and our mayhem!”
J. Wright
re 52. I think that Iain Dale is referring to the Scottish subset from the latest YouGov national survey. The numbers appear to be the same
60
Can this comment of his former Pastor for 20 years undermine critically Obama’s chance to win in Indiana — or even to get de nomination?
That NotW Marginals poll is sensational for the Tories. Over the last three election cycles the NotW Marginals poll has correctly predicted a Labour majority. Now its predicting a majority for the Tories Labour really are in terrible, terrible trouble.
Here’s the link to the ICM NOWT poll.
http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/images/homepage/notw_poll_result_260408.pdf
Look how poorly GB does on immigration compared to DC.
Spent the day canvassing in Haringey ward of Highgate - canvassed Conservatives, possibles and LD voters who have been canvassed as voting Cin the past. Strong Boris feel. People who voted LD in recent Highgate by-election straight to Con. They want to beat Labour. A few Ken posters in western Haringey - all in ‘known suspects’ houses. This place was solid for Ken last time…
53 PotB. Too close to call presently. Look out for the polls by Selzer and Co. They are Iowa based pollsters with an excellent record who sometimes carry out polls in bordering states such as Indiana. The latest below :
Obama 41% .. Clinton 38%
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080425/NEWS0502/804250437
If pushed I’d say Obama by upto 5%.
52, 57 FWIW according to Baxter, this would result in the SNP winning 25 seats, compared with Labour’s 21 seats.
1 Rod Thanks for putting up those old Newspaper election headlines
Some of them looking back are quite startling
Feb 74 Mr Wilson said “He was glad that Labour had held Toxteth” and that “The Liberals did not make the impact on the dockland areas they had hoped for” !
Also a quote from Ken Livingstone in 1983 saying “The struggle between the Government and the Labour movement will move outside Parliament”
In the non-politics part the Spanish police putting the Bishop of Bilbao under house arrest and the South African govt in 83 hanging ANC prisoners show how things have changed in out lifetimes. I had forgotten Robert Fisk used to write for the Times as well.
So which poll do we have in the Telegraph? Mike says its ICM, but Ian Dale says its a YouGov Scottish poll?
Do we know which seats they were polling in?
IF John Loony has his computer plugged in, or to anyone else out there who has any hard info:
Re: postal votes, in the UK is there typically a demographic skew to this vote?
In the great state of Washington, absentee voters (in counties that still have poll voting, now down to just 2 out of 39) tend to be somewhat older than poll voters, and also more inclinded to vote Democratic.
J. WRIGHT
“”Military might doesn’t make for peace. Occupying and killing those who fought to protect their own homes does not make for peace! Press conferences claiming victory do not make for peace! Regime change, substituting one tyrant for another tyrant, with the biggest tryant pulling the puppet strings of all the tyrants, does not make for peace! Colonization does not make for peace! If you don’t believe me look at Haiti, look at Puerto Rico, look at Angola, look at Zimbabwe, look at Kenya, look at [hard to make out what he's saying, something like "astra boys"?] in South Africa! Colonization does not make for peace, occupation does not make for peace, and subjugation only makes a temporary silence… it does not make for peace.”
The third cut: “A lot of people still confuse, 2000 years later, they still confuse God with their government… We can see clearly the confusion in the minds of a few Muslims - and please notice that I did not say all, I said a few Muslims - who see Allah as condoning killing those who do not believe what they believe. They call it jihad.”
“We can see clearly the confusion in their minds but we cannot see clearly what it is that we do. We call it ‘Crusade.’ When we turn right around and say that our God condones the killing of innocent civilians as a necessary means to an end. We say that God understands collateral damn damage. We say that God knows how to forgive friendly fire. We say that God will bless the shock and awe as we take over unilaterally another country, calling it a coalition because we got three guys from Australia. Goin’ against the United Nations, goin’ against a majority of Christians, Muslims, and Jews, throughout the world, making a preemptive strike in the name of God. We cannot see how what we are doing is the same thing al-Qaeda is doing under a different color flag, calling on the name a different God to sanction and approve our murder and our mayhem!”
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/
—–
Can Obama survive this storm? Will it give Clinton enough ammunitions to secure Indiana?
re 69. Just check out the Scottish sub-set here from the national YouGov poll.
http://www.yougov.com/archives/pdf/DTresults080423.pdf
They are exactly as Iain reports them
73. So they have got an ICM poll as well as the Scottish sub-set?
37 Mike - wasn’t being serious, should have put a smiley at the end, intended no aspersion on the pollsters.
68 I can’t read anything but the headlines. Print too small
re 73. I think that Iain has got this wrong.
72 -
a) yes.
b) no relevance, demographics over-rule anything else.
The position of the LibDems is a little unclear. They may well keep roughly the same number of seats, but they will lose seats to the Tories in the South but gain some from Labour elsewhere. ICM’s Nick Sparrow comments…- What does Dale and Sparrow mean. Dropping say Romsey and picking up Norwich South? What
77 Mike S. Do you infer that Mrs Dale’s Dairy is trying to pull an udder one ??
RE: the Mayoral Election.
Does anybody think the “Abolish the Congestion Charge” party could pick up a reasonable showing on the Regional list? Especially if Conservative supporters are smart enough to realise that their regional vote is a wasted vote?
I thought using subsets of polling data was dodgy coz it’s not weighted properly?
A 186 Scottish subsample is worthless…Ignore!
It can be risky putting together different partial pieces of information about a poll, but … the News of the World report suggests the poll is comparable with the one conducted last October.
That had vote share (in the marginal seats) of Con 44, Lab 38, LD 12. The Sun’s report gives Con 40 (actually down 4 on last year), Lab 32 (down 6 on last year) and no Liberal Democrat figure. It is hard to see though with a -4 and a -6 how the full figures won’t show a sharp increase in Liberal Democrat support at the expense of both the other main parties.
81 - in a nutshell NO. I dont think most people realise the workings of the D’hondt System.
But isn’t this what caused the election that never was to be binned. Brown thought he was riding high, but his MPs in marginal seats started losing control of their bowels as they new that the national poll wasn’t telling the whole picture.
Re the 10p issue, I’ve just spent the afternoon sticking leaflets explaining how it will whack the poor through letter boxes in a Labour voting council estate (along with a pic of the Brown/Thatcher love in). Summer storm indeed!
84 This seems the logical conclusion, but I suppose this might also be based on a larger number of seats. Even so, I have the impression that there is a good news story for the lib dems that isn’t being spelt out. Does this imply a bunch of labour seats in Hull and Newcastle going Liberal Democrat, for example?
Besides it may not be a wasted vote. We may not gain or hold all the pedicted changes - or poll so well we get another seat! As LDs have banged on fr years it is % share of the vote that matters. A drop in this list vote and the selective LD bar chart is rolled out. Vote Conservative in all boxes is our message!
72
I would imagine this is going to run and run,how serious can someone that voluntarily listens to rants like this every week be taken?
Apart from some slick speeches what has this guy actually done,managed,achieved ?
88 - If you polled so well to get another seat, you would get another constituency seat.
If you were serious about keeping the BNP out, you would suggest to all Conservative voters to vote elsewhere. Unless you think they would otherwise vote BNP, of course.
Canvassing reports should always be taken with caution (mine and everyone else’s) and I post them here mainly for flavour than to prove anything - a poll is always a better guide. It’s others who do the interpreting - when it goes poorly alex says I’m sounding downhearted, when it goes well witan says I don’t live in the real world. I just tell you what I find. But yes, I do think the 10p issue is off the boil - people don’t think the Tories would do anything about it, and they conclude from all the U-turn headlines that we will (as I believe will prove to be the case).
Marginal polls, like constituency polls, have technical difficulties: it’s harder to balance the demographics. I seem to recall a NOTW pol before the 2005 election showing Labour in serious trouble in the marginals?
Peter: these figures do suggest the real betting value may be in the Liberal Democrats seat market, though you might expect me to say that
91. From what I remember the NotW marginal polls have always shown a Labour majority before the last three elections? From memory they are usually very reliable.
The rise in Lib-Dem support in the marginals could be a sign that Labour is going to become victim to tactical voting in the marginals?
Really good piece on Appalachia running on Daily Kos
Nick: I think your memory may be at fault on this one as the April NOTW marginals poll predicted Lab 408, Con 174, LD 48, overall Lab majority of 157
89, 78
When this will hit Drudge and Hannity and Limbaugh and Joe S. — Hillary’s stock on intrade will jump to the 25-30 I was predicting — http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=177134
And Indiana polls will swith in her advantage : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/in/indiana_democratic_primary-639.html
UK– and then, UK.Paul — we will be laughing together… Hopefully!
Obama has run a fantastic campagin — that is his main achievement.
The reason why these Wright’s rant are so important is twofold:
– Since Americans do not know him, they wanna know is close circle of friends
–It allows McCain to take the High Road and to distance himself from the GOP and Bush — for the GOP will sponsor ads associating Obama with Wright and Terrorists like Ayers — and McCain will critize the GOP for running a negative campaign.
As an effect, the MSM will run and rerun for free the GOP’s attack ad — before interviewing McCain on why he is always bashing his own party.
The real answer: to attract independant and centrist-Dems!
There is a new betfair market on ‘Parliamentary voting’, the only one at the moment being the terrorism bill. I’ve just offered odds of 100 it will be passed. Any takers?
92 Except for the fact that GE LibDem seats on the spreadbetting markets are already way ahead of what Baxter is calculating on the basis of recent polls.
90 The gap between winning Enfield & Haringey and the next one is so huge it is not a forgone conclusion that we wou;d win any of the remaining constituencies. Besides the BNP do not benefit from a high Con share - they benefit from people voting for them. Campaigning for a high Con vote is as good a way as any to stop the BNP
99 - yep on reflection that’s true. I think.
26 MC
“I’m not gonna have any fingernails left by Thursday…”
Why not?
Malcolm
97 - Hmmm. What happens if the Govt tries to amend the bill to remove the 42 day provision?
Or the bill is otherwise amended by amendment, and then passed?
100 one thing clear De Hont is a s transparent as a brick wall lol
102. I don’t know. But for 100, I will take the chance!
98 Surely that is because people don’t believe Baxter?
98: true, but the track record of Baxter-type predictions for the numbers of seats won by the third party has been consistently pretty poor over the last half a dozen general elections. I wouldn’t want to risk my money on a prediction approach with such a weak record.
60 PM
What is wrong with that statement?
Malcolm
106 Don’t let me stop you PW, go ahead and buy GE LibDem seats - me, I’d rather buy SNP at or around 10 seats.
107 Did we vote policy on Baxter at the last party conference?
47. No need to apologise, Peter, I wouldn’t put a dime on them. Wonderfully I’m already up on sperz this season having taken advantage of everyone’s misguided belief at the beginning of the season that they’d finish fourth or fifth. I think I ’sold’ at around 5.15(th place).
It wasn’t so long ago that Baxter had the Lib Dems at zero.
http://politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2007/10/08/baxter-puts-the-lib-dems-on-zero-seats/
112 - he changed his methodology.
only caught the end of BBC news but I THINK the BBC said ICM were 40/32 Con/Lab.
89 Simple
Have you worked in communities in down town Chicago?
Don’t confuse what Washington-based politicians do with real work. The US needs politicians like London needs any of the candidates to be elected Mayor.
Malcolm
95. Yes, if anything the NotW marginals poll has tended to overstate Labour support. If you make that assumption for this poll, then chances are the Tories are actually on course for an 80+ landslide! :O
112. My own entirely scientific
fiddle factor produces forecasts for the Lib Dems just under the spreads…
Presumably ICM poll is implicitly Con 41 Lab 27?
Any chance please Mike/Paul of a London Mayoralty competition on say the final winner and his winning margin with % turnout as the tie-breaker?
Good to see that the Daily Mash take some of their stories from PB.com:
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/labour-u%11turn-on-punching-poor-people-in-the-face-20080424899/
If marginals poll swing is applied equally across all categories of marginals then Lib dem swould not lose any seats. list of marginals shows 12 gains from labour,12 losses to tories.
The latterfigure may aslo be an overesrimate becaus eof tactical voting freom labour votes in Lib Con marginals.
rogerh
121. *IF* the Lib-Dems can retain their 2005 high water mark, they could be quite well set to replace Labour should Labour implode in Opposition.
122 - in 2005 we had an advantage in Iraq; we had a disadvantage in being led by a man, previously a good leader, who had turned in to a bumbling drunk.
Given a base of 18% now, 23% once Clegg is well known is fair enough a target to aim at.
111 You really don’t like the Spurs do you Julian? It sounds like there might be a bit of “history” there somewhere.
I believe my 5 previous footy suggestions on here were successful and at the start of the season I sold Derby at 33 points and bought Villa (hat tip to stjohn) at 52.8 points, so overall a mega result on the footy.
re 119. There will be a PB London Mayor competition. We’ll be publishing it at about 5pm tomorrow.
So, no mayoral polls tonight then?
123. Yes, I always felt the Lib-Dems underperformed in 2005. Given the circumstances, I didn’t think 80 seats for the Lib’s was unrealistic in 2005.
New PSRA/Newsweek Presidential and Primary Poll :
McCain 45% .. Clinton 48%
McCain 44% .. Obama 47%
Clinton 38% .. Obama 46%
http://www.newsweek.com/id/134389
68. The thing that surprised me most was the deferential style of the Times in its coverage: - “Mr. Wilson” and “Mr. Heath”…
Looking back, the dropping of the “Mr.” when referring to people in headlines appears to have occurred in the early 1980s…
Watching CNN right now, McCain is talking in New Orleans at a rally. There’s about twenty people sitting behind him and they all look incredibly unenthused or outright bored. I know it’s not his part of the country, but it really must be worrying for the GOP they couldn’t some enthusiastic supporters to sit behind him! I think one telling fact about this campaign is that, even though a lot like him, there is not a single demographic or ideological group that is really passionate about McCain. That means a sparse volunteer base.
With no money and no volunteers, how is he going to compete among the unaligned?
122. Not really, the LDs would have to be getting over 33% for that to happen…
129 - Not his city but the state is one of the few very real prospects for a Republican gain at Senate level. It is bad news for him if Louisiana Republicans and others around the country don’t feel his coat-tails are worth clinging on to.
ConHome has ICM/ SunTel poll:
Con 39pc
Lab 29pc
LD 20pc
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2008/04/tories-10-ahead.html
126. The only mayoral poll that I was expecting was MRUK in the Sunday Times. It looks as though there might not be one.
128 I’ve found it startling how fast dress informality has moved into the workplace.
Working in the City of London, I would say that 10 years ago everyone but everyone wore a tie, 5 years ago this was probably around 85%, 2 years ago 60%, now approx 40%.
134. Is there anything Cameron can’t achieve?!
BTW if the NOTW has Conservatives winning 131 out of 145 seats, then the reality is that they would win more.
57% back the anti-Terror bill. Sad.
BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of a new ARSE poll of polls that comprises ICM, Populus, YouGov, CR and MORI that gives :
Con 40.2% .. Lab 29.8% .. LibDem 18.4% .. Others 11.6%.
The PISSED Wells/Baxter Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :
Con 335 seats .. Lab 235 .. LibDem 48 .. Others 32.
Con majority of 20.
……………………..
Sources :
WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
JNN …… Jacobite News Network.
ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores
128 IMHO, people you don’t know should always be referred to as Mr/Mrs/Miss. One of things that irritates me about estate agents is having some twit you’ve never spoken to before calling you up saying “Hi, Sean, it’s Kevin………”
137. alex: “57% back the anti-Terror bill. Sad.”
Yes, it’s that pesky self-preservation again.
6 Mike, are the seats all Labour held? The election that wasn’t poll included the fifty most marginal Labour and Tory held seats, iirc.
140 - Most people wouldn’t have the first idea of what the anti-terror bill is all about. Other than their prefered solution is to be “tough”.
On a lighter note, just spotted this on ConHome. Surely this chap holds some sort of record?
125. I suggest predicting the order of all 10 candidates as one of the questions.
143 - Does that include the English Democrat who’s unofficially dropped out?
144. I have to say, it will be amusing if anyone finishes below him…
140 Ok Gabble explain why exactly 42 days is needed?
There’s a fairly general assumption here that the Comms Allowance is only used to raise the profile of the MP. Just for interest I’ve set up an archive of some of the things I’ve used mine for:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxComms/message/1
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/BroxComms/message/2
In both cases it was sent to everyone in the area likely to be interested.
What do people who disapporove of the CA make of this sort of thing? There isn’t any propaganda in either, and both fulfilled a concrete need (to report constituents’ feelings on current issues). Insofar as the recipient feels they’re useful, they might think better of me for doing it, so it does have a possible incumbency effect - but so does doing my job in any other way. I explicitly surveyed people in the second example on whether they felt it was a reasonable use of their money (nearly everyone said yes).
New thread - Tories back to a double digit lead with ICM
132 Err. If Labour were down 5% and the Tories N/C with Lib Dems up 1 where’s the other four % gone. SNP or not the BNP surely
129
The GOP is full of money.
And it will attack ruthlessly the Democratic nominee.
To attract the center, McCain will bash the GOP.
Furthermore, McCain himself is beginning to raise serious money.
But he will rely more on free media.
A contrario to Obama, he does not fear geving exhaustive interview until the journalist are bored and have nothing else to ask.
The free media will also come for the journalist will replay the GOP attack ads, and they will interview McCain about his un-orhtodox strategy: GOP bashing — while the GOP is attacking the Democratic candidate.
McCain will look more and more as a maverick, and will thus attract so-called Reagan Democracts and Independants.
Does it make sense?
For anyone who didn’t see Harriet’s hacked blog. You probabaly did b seeing as noone noticed for hours. Some of the comments left were funny.
http://www1.sky.com/news/img052.pdf
Must must PROOF READ!
149 Others, anyway.
146 - I’d rather someone explain why ID cards are needed
Short of someone filling out their occupation as “terrorist” and their interests as “blowing up buildings and killing civilians” then I fail to see how they will “keep us safe” as Labour endlessly claim
150 - i thought there was a limit on the money he’s allowed to spend?
154 Could not agree more, both are totally pointless expensive counter-productive and dangerous posturing.
144. He might still beat Winston McKenzie.
155
I was refering to this:
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0408/McCain_to_raise_big_cash_in_Florida.html
Also: the GOP as a machine can spend money McCain as the nominee can’t.
129, Read the polls, he’s competing perfectly adequately at this time.
Or shall we ignore the facts as they are right now?
This is why the elections generally [local and mayoral matter]. Media perception is important, but this matters even more.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/britains-new-national-sport-taking-pot-shots-at-brown-816218.html
This is the key para:
Already a meeting has been organised for two weeks after Thursday’s local elections by Progress, an organisation on the party’s centre right, under the heading “How Can Labour Win the South?”. Speakers include Charles Clarke and John Denham, the Secretary of State for Universities. It reflects the real concerns among dozens of Labour MPs in the south that they will lose their seats at the next election because voters have no confidence in Mr Brown.
These people will be more intersted in their own back yard.