Could the Tories be vulnerable in a by election in Henley?
February 22nd, 2008
Boris says he’ll quit as an MP if he beats Ken
The Tory candidate for London Mayor has said this afternoon that if elected he will resign as an MP thus creating a by election at his seat in Henley in Oxfordshire.
At the 2005 general election Boris held the seat with a 53.5% vote share. The Lib Dems were in second place on 26% with Labour at 15%.
On the face of it the seat looks like a safe hold for the Tories - but you can never underestimate the Lib Dems in parliamentary by elections and Henley is quite close to a number of seats held by the party where there are lots of activists. Oxford is only just up the road.
But Boris has to win in London first on MayDay. What polls there have been have had him in second place - but not far behind.
In the London mayoral betting Ken is on 0.68/1 with Boris at 1.54/1.
Could the Tories be vulnerable in a by election in Henley?
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Why can’t Cameron apologise for the Auschwitz misunderstanding - what’s he afraid of?
seems safe to me…
I imagine a large amount of the vote is personal.
2 Gabble - he has nothing to be ashamed of.
It sounds unikely. You can’t find much more of a Tory place than Henley.
1. Please keep on thread Gabble - certainly for the first dozen or so posts. That debate was well aired on the previous thread.
1 perhaps he doesnt feel he has to answer to the likes of you.
You account for your invasion immigration and subsequent terrorist attacks, defence cuts during wartime and the disgusting state of the NHS.
Then, perhaps…
2. Though not enough for the seat not to transfer to the next tory.
Meant 3.
5 - didn’t they say that of Bromley?
Wouldn’t it be bizzare if Boris Johnson DIDN’T resign his seat if he became London Mayor?
And the seat looks completely safe to me, even if you assume the Lib’s will increase their share.
Didn’t Boris’ dad try for a seat near-by? He would just love it.
Boris slightly older, but still with mad hair [...and still mad]. Great publicity. Bish, bash ,bosh. Job done.
3 - Very doubtful. Johnson replacing Heseltine in 2001 didnt seem to do much to dent Conservative prospects in the seat, so i dont think there’s much of a ‘personal vote’ factor distoring the characteristics of the seat… an affluent, rural seat in the south of England pretty much a bedrock Tory seat - of course that doesnt mean it would be secure in a by-election.
12
Hardly near by it was in South Devon.
If the Tories were in government, think the Libdems would be in with a chance, but only just.
12. In that situation, i would imagine he would walk it.
I used to read his column, he’s a lovely bloke, very smart and thoughtful.
13.If anything the Henley Tories seem to like picking larger than life mavericks which might blunt the Libdem machine in a by-election.
“The Tory candidate for London Mayor has said this afternoon that if elected he will resign as an MP…”
Surely if he was confident of winning the Mayoralty, he would resign now and give it his full attention. This would also allow Henley to elect a full-time MP.
I think there’d be quite a high turnout - the Tories have consistently got 20,000+ votes here and the boundary changes are mildly favourable to them. There is a decent-sized Labour vote to squeeze, but not big enough to overturn the majority. I think the Lib Dems would need (1) a good candidate, (2) a weak Tory candidate and (3) some sense of narrative to convince shire voters that there is a problem with the Conservative Party.
IMHO I think Lib Dem by-election tactics work less well as socio-economic status rises. That means that, unless the party has the advantage of a genuinely unpopular Tory government (1972-3, 1981-2, and the early 1990s) its chances are much better in Labour seats than Tory ones with equivalent majorities.
Romsey is the nearest equivalent to Henley, but the Tory majority was smaller and the Labour vote bigger. And the Tories were in a much bigger mess than they are now.
My old stomping ground where I worked for Hesseltine in the run up to the disastrous 1997 election.
I cannot see the Tories losing Henley, although Mike’s right to point to the LibDem potential. In days of yore this would have been vulnerable.
14.
Sorry. Below Watford Gap… a blur.
Well, Having staggered the Henley half marathon (worst race ever for me) I’m an expert.
How much safer is Henley than Bromley?
The Liberals have been in clear second place here continuously since Feb 1974…
The problem for the Tories is they are in a no-win situation. Either they lose, disastrously (unlikely imho), or the LibDems run them reasonably close in a two-horse race, which would be portrayed as a defeat of sorts…
It’s an academic question, however, since Boris isn’t going to win London, imho…
Auschwitz story on Channel 4 news looked pretty bad for the tories.
One of their big donors, Lord Kalms, criticising them for using the words ‘Auschwitz’ and ‘Gimmick’ in the same sentence.
16. I suspect the idea of a larger than life maverick being a by election candidate would give any agent for any party the heeby-jeebies.
21 Days of Yore 2006…
Clearly Henley could be vulnerable in the context of a Boris backlash. Labour and the Lib Dems will be up for it. But IMO they’ll probably some good will towards the new mayor, so I’d bet on Tory hold unless something happens.
But it ain’t gonna happen.
I am convinced that Boris will win the Mayoral Election (based on the last set of London wide elections in 2005 and 2006). A Henley by-election would be interesting certainly. Of the by-elections since the last election, the current change in support is:
Lib Dems: 29% (+7%)
Labour: 29% (-9%)
Conservatives: 21% (-2%)
The result in Henley at the last election was:
Con 53%, Lib Dem 26%, Lab 15%, Green 3%, UKIP 2%
My initial thoughts would be:
Con fall, Lib Dem rise, Lab collapse, Green rise, UKIP rise
I honestly can’t see the LibDems getting remotely close in Henley. If you think the LibDems can draw on shipping in supporters from Oxford, it is but nothing compared to the hordes the Tories can bring in from surrounding areas.
In 2005 there was a 4.22% swing from the Lib Dems to Boris
Also this will be fought on the old boundaries - not the new ones.
Never ever underestimate the Lib Dems in parliamentary by-elections. The Tories have only had one defence since the 2001 general election - Bromley and look how close that was.
I have little doubt that by election planning is already at an advanced stage. A summer contest, June or July, would attract hundreds and hundreds of LD activists every day. There would be a massive literature operation using tried and tested formulas that other parties have never managed to deal with.
You can see Lib Dem voters in London giving their supplemental vote to Boris because of the by election prospect.
LD candidate selection will be vital, do we know anything?
It could be an upset. Voters tend to dislike unnecessary elections - and it’s unnecessary for their MP to find a job he prefers elsewhere. UKIP and others will come in and take away votes - it’s not an election to elect a government so here’s a chance to make a statement. Lib dem by-election campaigning thrives in such conditions.
Against that it will test as well the polls showing Lib Dem support dropping off in South - will the Lib Dems be starting from the base they had in 2005 or have they lost support since?
Maybe Dave could persuade Tony Lit to stand. This isn’t far from Ealing?
O/T sorry. Not trying to restart the discussion - but perhaps Balls should pay for history trips for the Beeb staff so they don’t post things like this….
“It said the government has promised funding for two pupils from every sixth form and college in the country to visit the Nazi concentration camp where millions of Jews were murdered during the World War I”
28. Mike, It occurs to me that the local LDs could effectively start their by-election campaign now, if tha’ts the case. Can any LDs say if they’ve seleceted a candidate or done anything (even if it’s a “call a by-election now, Boris” campaign.
1 Gabble
Can we please have an apology from Balls for deliberately taking words out of context to make cheap political points about the holocaust,I guess we should never be surprised at how low New Labouir will go.
Well, if Boris won the Mayoral election and the Conservatives lost the Henley seat they’d be peeved, but I imagine they’d consider it a fair deal.
However, I’m not at all sure they would lose it. As suggested upthread, Stanley Johnson could go for it, and I imagine he’d get a strong showing.
11 No it would not. Ken stayed as MP until the Election after he became Mayor. I can only think they felt Ken could do it for a year but with the next election a possible 2 away they couldn’t do it. But I think they’re taking an amazing risk. Hold it and they get no credit, and on the flip side everyone knows Lord Rennard. They’re pushing their luck for little reward I think. BTW No Sean Fear?
31 Or maybe Greg Dyke?
“You can see Lib Dem voters in London giving their supplemental vote to Boris because of the by election prospect.” Do you really think that. Is that Boris’s Plan
17
Is that the same advice that you gave to Frank Dobson or Simon Hughes?
Reposted from previous thread:
“271. “Balls said. “Anyone who has seen the horrors of Auschwitz at first hand knows what a life-changing experience it is.””
Eh?
Was Ed Balls present at Auschwitz in 1944??
Prat.
I’ve been to Auschwitz. It’s shit. Totally disappointing.
It’s like Stonehedge visitor centre. A massive coach park, gift shop, theatre, ice-cream fan… it’s f**king offensive to the memory of those who perished if you ask me.
It’s not life-changing - it’s laughable. Reading a book about the horrors is more evocative than visiting the place.
Anyway, I think Cameron has a point (though on such a touchy subject as this, maybe he was unwise to make it)
History nowadays is a fashionable series of heinous headlines, with no attempt made to link together, or to teach a narrative, of human development to children.
Thus we have; “Slave Trade”, “Votes for Women”, “Holocaust”, “Poverty in the Middle-Ages”, “Roman Baths” and err…. that’s about it.
It’s an absolute disgrace. A politically correct hit-list and nothing else.
No kid will understand sh*t about Auschwitz, because they have no context to put it in. “
I think saying that teaching students about the “Slave Trade”, “Votes for Women” and the “Holocaust” as a politically correct hit list, is a bit… odd.
re 36. Yes - Sean Fear is otherwise engaged today - so you have to put up with me
I sped read the last thread…It looked like Hopi was getting a bit of aggro for posting a quote from Popbitch - Do these people realise that Popbitch tends to actually be quite accurate…?
There was a lot of chat among LibDems last year as to whom should be the party’s candidate were there to have been a GE in the autumn.
This was precisely because it would have given that candidate some profile locally for a serious run at the seat should they have then been re-selected to fight any by-election following a Boris win in London.
43. To be fair to the lynch mob, I think they thought I already knew who it was and was just making trouble.. which I didn’t, ironically enough.
(still don’t, so email to let me know, will someone!)
41. Diddums.
Teaching history in that way *is* a bit odd.
Do you know history syllabuses now don’t cover the Magna Carta, the Glorious Revolution, the Act of Union or the Napoleonic Wars?
That they don’t teach a sweeping narrative of history from the Dark Ages to the Present Day, nor teach children to interpret historical events for themselves?
They jump around from topic-to-topic on GSCE syllabuses dictated by the government. Syllabuses which compromise any “fashionable” event that politicans feel kids need to know “more” about - ie. make the government look proactive.
It’s a disgrace.
Kids have no idea about the development of society. National or Global.
They are totally unable to make sense of the story of human development.
45 - You’re being very fair - if you did know who it was it would very much have betting relevence…
42 Ouch. No offence mean’t
40.
Sky news blog is interesting.
Seem to think Cameron didn’tsay they were a waste of time…it was an admin cock-up that will cause unintended offence.
Best bit…
That it would have been best for Tory opponents to let them stew…But INSTEAD..
Ed Balls’ ‘incontinent response’ was ‘unpalletable’.
The sound of the Ball’s bandwagon backfiring?
Popbitch don’t have a 100% record.
Didn’t Clarkson threaten to sue?
46. I still think there is merit in teaching about the holocaust, the slave trade and votes for women.
The world is a big place, and history is a long time. It’s not possible to teach all of it in the three compulsory years of history at secondary school.
I remember, i did; the tudors, the middle ages, the romans, the slave trade, the first world war and the renaissance.
“Row over Auschwitz ‘gimmick’ note” now the number one read story on the BBC.
52 That is cos Tories are busily blogging their attacks on Balls.
Thanks for the tip off. See you later.
50 - You are correct, Popbich does not have a 100% record. What it does have is a very good record that is certainly very relevent to political betting.
40 Casino Royale. I, my wife and 16 year old daughter found a visit to Auschwitz about 4 years ago deeply moving - particularly the 16 year old who had no real appreciation of the Holocaust before the visit. In the same group as we went around was a Jew, originally from Hungary who at the age of 16 in 1944 had been sent there and seen all his extended familly sent to the gas chambers. He had survived until 1945 when the camp was liberated and this was the first time he had returned. Perhaps his presence helped make it a life affecting visit for us but I fail to see how anyone visiting could not be affected
With a story like Auschwitz/Gimmick on the news tonight I think we can kiss goodbye to any interesting debate on pb.com tonight. Not much good Telly on either…
But watch out for this on Monday
Portillo on Thatcher
Michael Portillo looks at the legacy of Margaret Thatcher and how her leadership affected the Conservative Party.
Monday 9pm BBC4
BTW Will the fact the ’80s are now cool again, help or hinder Cameron?
Jonathan
The 80’s are cool?
How so?
Not an attack, just a question.
[Have suspicion you are engaging in desperate attempt to change the subject...am being helpful].
While I think the possibility of Boris actually winning is remote, could it be the most disasterous outcome for Cameron?
Boris, now in a position not just to upset small regional cities but the whole world?
Meanwhile, the LD’s sweep up Henley, raising all the questions about Cameron and the future of the Tories, bringing back all the post-Southall doubts.
I think it’s a very uncomfortable few months for David.
51. How old are you?
History is taught in my Wifes school (for she is a history teacher) from the Age of 8 upwards. That’s almost 8 years of teaching till GSCE at 16.
It includes around 1.5 hours per week, 9-10 weeks per term, 3 terms a year. Say.. 40 hours per year for 8 years. Plus at least 1 hour for homework each week.
I make that 640 hours of history per child. Plenty of time to at least touch on all the themes. PLUS private reading. Plus exams..
And STILL we have this?!!
A BBC 2004 poll of 16-34 yr olds for Battlefield Britain series found that a third (A THIRD!) of this age group could not identify the victor of the Battle of Hastings from this list:
Napoleon, Wellington, Alexander the Great, William the Conqueror.
HALF of the younger age group did not know the Battle of Britain (our “finest hour”) happened in WWII!!
There are even more shocking facts, such as 30% of 11-18 yr olds not knowing *WHICH CENTURY* World War One occured in. And 15% who think that Orangemen are Irish eccentrics who are actually celebrating the fictional victory of “Helms Deep” of Lord of the Rings in their parades each year.
The way we teach history is shocking.
How can kids understand the relevance of the most serious racial and religious clashes in human history, without a basic understanding of the context and historical narrative in which they arose?
Kids have no understanding, or respect for history. The way I’ve seen them behave at both Ypres cementry, and Auschwitz, sickened me.
They simply have no understanding, or respect, for the significance of what they’re being shown.
And it’s largely down to the political selection and manipulation of the curriculum.
57 Some evidence of ’80s revival
1) Ashes to Ashes.
2) Knight Rider TV Movie
3) Minder coming back (WTF BTW)
4) London Fasion Week had some pretty scary 80’s designs.
5) Possible recession on the way.
Very 1980’s
All we need is a Hollywood remake of Howard’s Way…
# Da Da Dah…
28 “You can see Lib Dem voters in London giving their supplemental vote to Boris because of the by election prospect.”
Mike - so you are suggesting your lot would freely concede the London Mayoralty to Boris in exchange for the prospect of winning Henley - I imagine Tory HQ would accept that with open arms, especially given the near certainty of winning back this constituency a year or so later.
By-elections caused by resignations can produce outcomes less favourable to incumbents than by-elections caused by deaths - but normally this affect a government now.
I know Henley very well and am working there at the moment. It is very nice but tiny. Can’t be more than 9000 electors in the town. And pretty though the town is, it does have council estates much like any other town.
The constituency is geographically large with no towns of any size. I would expect the surrounding villages to be fairly Tory normally - but Thame is more mixed.
Given the Bromley result, I can see this going either way. I would put it at about 50 / 50. But I think this is hypothetical as I feel Ken will win. (Of course, as Jacqui Smith said, it won’t hypothetical if it happens.)
59. I’m a student.
I dropped History before GCSE, because of an unpleasant teacher. Meaning i did history at primary and my first year at secondary through to my third. I didn’t find a prominent political bias during my period studying history. I may have been too young to realise it though.
The GCSE students at my school went to Ypres, they found it a very humbling experience, one said it was the most “real” moment of his life up until that point. Walking through mile after mile of identical gravestones with seemingly no end.
59 you make your case and are passionate about it.
I am an amateur history buff and devour ‘popular’ history books. My kids ask me questions only when they have to. They get a lecture, not a reply. But as a parent of a teenager I suspect this bit…
‘And 15% who think that Orangemen are Irish eccentrics who are actually celebrating the fictional victory of “Helms Deep” of Lord of the Rings in their parades each year.’
…is a mutiple choice and their idea of being funny.
55. No everyone [not even all Jewish people] are so uncritical, credulous and emotionally pliable…
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/619610.stm
http://globalfire.tv/nj/03en/holoindustry/questions.htm
55. I’m sorry. But I wasn’t affected.
It wasn’t just me either. My lifelong (socialist) friend and travelling companion, Chris, was also totally unmoved.
Is that a crime? Does that make me a Nazi? Does that make HIM a Nazi?
I don’t think so.
It might be because I’d already read (and watched) so much about it, the “shock” impact was less.
It might be because of the hordes of yapping children.
It might have been because of the camera-snapping tourists.
It might have been because they have ruined the sight because they’d turned it into a bl**dy theme park with a huge visitor centre and a picnic area next to the “Arbeit Macht Frei” sign.
But none of this moves away from the central point… In order to understand Auschwitz, you have to put it into a context.
Visiting the place is not enough. You have to understand what it represents.
You also have to understand that the same sort of stuff is still going on today (or did so very recently) and that we are not “rid” of it.
Auschwitz is now a feel-good centre for smug European politicans who think they can exorcise their consciences by mandating a visit for all schoolchildren in their countries. It allows them to feel good about themselves, whilst brushing off their own very serious deficiences in the field of foreign policy today.
It has become a religious shrine for the self-righteous, stripped of its original (understated) potency. It *is* almost a gimmick now - but one almost invulnerable to criticism - as it plays a role which is too taboo to criticise.
Were that the point Cameron was trying to make (which I doubt) it would have been a very good one.
As someone studying History at university I think the way it’s butchered for GCSEs, and to a lesser extent, A Level, is pretty unpalatable. Getting rid of the incessant exam board obsessions with Hitler and Stalin would be a good start.
60. Am now scared [about no.4]
Shoulder pads. Leg warmers. Perms!!!
64. I study, politics, philosophy and economics.
re 62. Peter, You have two votes in the Mayoral election and Lib Dems will support Paddick as first choice. The prospect of helping trigger a by election might just cause some to use their second vote for Boris. So there’s no question of them sacrificing their chances
68 - in my O level and A level history we did not look at anything after 1600. But I still have a good awareness of 20th century history.
History is like literature. It improves with your age.
73. Hated history at school.
But i would have died for literature.
65. Thank you Sally. So they should get a lecture from you!!
But, if you had a partner who was a History teacher, I think you might realise just how deeply serious this problem is.
Many, MANY, kids truly know absolutely nothing. And their ignorance is breathtaking.
And my wife teaches in one of the top state schools in the country.
Labour believes history began in year zero, 1997. So obviously there is no point in children learning about anything before that date.
I am concerned about the lack of awareness of history. It is rather less concerning than the large number of kids leaving unable to do basic maths.
I am biased as a trainee maths teacher, perhaps.
Could be a sign of the beginning of the anti-80’s though - last hurrah for the baby boomers resulting all those brands that became big in the 80’s rapidly declining (bye bye Nike, Ray Bans etc), sports wear as leisure wear becomes unsaleable even in TK Maxx, no-one is interested in more revivals of 80’s cartoons, Hip Hop, Rap and its derivatives are finally over (isn’t 30+ years enough! Grandmaster Flash is 50, LL Cool 40).
Finally move into the 21st Century leaving the late 20th century fads behind.
On the down side the Cold War revival seems well underway.
78 referred back to 69 & 60
75.
I confess I have been abit taken aback at some of the approaches.
Mine might be a narrow/confined experience, but I have found it had been made ’sexy’. Literally. The story of Marie Antoinette seemed to have morphed into an episode of Hollyoaks.
78 So sorry.
http://www.sohh.com/articles/article.php/13787
78.
‘On the down side the Cold War revival seems well underway.’
An under reported issue…we all look elsewhere while it [and our dependence on their gas] seems to mount.
Re: History.
My perspective is the scottish curriculam mid-nineties. I found the teacher uninspiring and therefore did not do it at Standard Level (GCSE equivelent). They never quite got accross just how serious and important History is as part of the curriculam - put a lot of the blame on my school/scottish curriculam that placed it at exactly the same level as Geography. Once I left school I realised how massive a chunk of my education I missed and have tried my best to catch up ever since. One of the first things that got me addicted to PBC was how the conversation once diverged into the English Civil War.
Also put me in the currently studying Politcs, Economics and Philosphy group (through the OU).
71 Mike - point taken and I agree this could become an important factor in the voting tactics of Lib Dems, which could actually be decisive should the result be within 1%-2% which is not an unlikely prospect. Perhaps you should pass this strategy to LibDem high command, just in case it hasn’t already occurred to them.
73. I suppose the same was true of me…in reverse.
RE:tactical voting for London mayor-
Please see below email exchange between me and a nuetral friend after Lib Dem HQ had instucted me to forward a pro-brian email-
___________________________
My friend: “Sorry Stevie, I’m voting Ken - it’s not a personal endorsement, just a tactical vote… I still think Ken’s the best bet to keep Boris out of the office (and if he gets in I’m gonna have to move out of London!).”
Me: “I am sorry - I don’t really like spamming friends………but you have
kind of given me an opening to argue our case (tactical voting)….
y’see the labour-concucted voting system means that your 2nd pref vote
(you only get a 1st and 2nd pref vote) only counts if the your second
vote goes to someone who makes it to the top two. So you could vote
Brian 1st pref and Ken 2nd. This is certainly the most anti-boris
ticket there is. Ken is going to make it to the top two so your vote
for him will count just as strongly in the event of a Ken V Boris
final and you might even manage to knock Boris out in the first round.
(In the unlikely scenario that Ken was knocked out in the first round
and it was a Brian V Boris final Brian would always win on second
prefs (lib dems get second pref votes by the the truck-load)).
Anyway - lets not get too party politcal between friends- I do find
tactical voting very interesting though.”
_____________________________
Comments? Is my analysis fair or have I just been cynically trying to engineer LD votes??
Evening all
I always thought the point of education was less to try and tell children everything but more to inculcate an enthausiasm to go on and find out and learn for themselves.
70/74.
Then you would have studied the “New History” curriculum. This is a process which started in earnest with a Government edict on the national curriculum in 1999 - though undoubtedly it had its roots earlier in the 1990s.
This “New History” aims to teach history through the themes of “predjudice, racism, gender and conflict”.
This is a bit of a crappy anecdote - but it is 100% true.
My (girlfriend) at the time, did her PCGE teacher training in an inner-city school in Bristol, in Bedminster. This was in 2001 (she is 4 years younger than me).
One of the questions her (erstwhile) mentor asked the class whilst he was conducting a history lesson on “Britain 1750-1900″ - and she was assisting - was; “What do we call English people in the 18th Century?”. The Class answered in unison: “…Racists!”
To which the teacher answered; “That’s right!” Before proceeding to give some examples of how truly dreadful everyone was back then. “White Gold and Black Misery” etc. etc…
I shit you not. I met the guy at a pub in Hotwells. He admitted it. He was proud of it.
I just wanted to sock him one..
There is simply no substance or basis of knowledge to history today. It’s sole object has become to teach kids “life-skills” and “modern citizenship” - it is almost Soviet in scope.
With this sort of ignorant, junk diet of political correctness and superficial moral indoctrination, no wonder Ofsted reported in February 2007 that seven out of ten pupils want to drop the subject at the earliest opportunity - aged fourteen.
G - alas, it would seem you were one of them.
14. It was Teignbridge. Maybe the Tories would relish a chance to test the waters before sweeping to power at the GE!
88. yep - another example of successful entryism by the far left. Gramsci would be very proud of his followers.
80. True.
I am hard-pressed to think of any historical series recently, by the BBC or others, which has been produced without some pretty hardc0re f**king scenes, or some uber-gore to try and attract an audience, at the expense of historical content?
Now, I don’t say I don’t LIKE those sort of things - I enjoy a bit of soft p0rn and gritty battle-scenes as much as the next man - but is it really conveying a historical narrative, or is it merely a vehicle to try and push up viewing figures??
Hmmm…
91. Andrew Marr’s history of modern britain was fantastic. It involved neither.
91 - “is it really conveying a historical narrative, or is it merely a vehicle to try and push up viewing figures??”
It can be both can’t it? A two-ser - everyones a winner…
87. Er..
History is an account of what happened in the past. Learning history, therefore, requires knowledge of events. It is impossible to make sense of events without absorbing sufficient factual information to place events in a clear chronological framework.
Without telling that historical “story” you are never going to enthuse any kids to go and out explore for themselves.
They will simply not be interested in looking.
93 - in addition to my comments - anything that might incidentally make the Chavs learn a bit of history can’t be that bad a thing…
92. G - I bow to you on that. Can’t argue with it!
Excellent example!!
I couldn’t help thinking of the programmes on the Tudors, Stuarts, Henry VIII, Charles I/II etc. etc.
BBC: You see that Andrew Marr bloke?
More of the same please…
95. “anything that might incidentally make the Chavs learn a bit of history can’t be that bad a thing… ”
How about proper schooling?
75.”Many, MANY, kids truly know absolutely nothing. And their ignorance is breathtaking.”
Not all kids, my oldest son was told by his modern studies teacher that he had a very up to date awareness of politics. Personally I blame the parents who visit sites like PB.com .
I like to think that with my children I do what Stodge suggests @87, both with modern politics and history which is another favourite subject of mine.
It has become all the more interesting as I have delved deep into family history and tried to get a grasp of the social conditions of the the time I am researching. I have discovered that the last Clan uprising involved a few of my ancestors marching on Elgin because of a dispute between supporters of opposing candidates in a hostile election in 1820.
98. They are very fortunate that they have a father so interested in the subject himself!
Like to think I’ll do the same with my kids.
Alas, we are in a minority.
Right, I’m off out. Haven’t eaten yet and I’ve already had four beers on an empty stomach..
Not good.
Have a good evening all!
Thank goodness for public schools.
98. The kids that to have a knowledge of politics, history or geography are those that have learned it from their parents or off their own backs outside of school. I’ve met plenty of university educated peole in their 20s who didn’t know what continent Yugoslavia was in. Many others couldn’t find Iraq on a map. I’m a political centrist, but any party that promises to return some academic rigour to education will have my vote at the next election.
I loved Simon Scharmer’s History of Britain - went out to buy the books etc, but then I am boring.
BBC’s Nazis A Warning from History also great.
‘Band of Brothers’ excellent viewing.
100.
You may be joking but I heard some geezer* on Channel 4 News say our public school system is widely regarded as the best in the world.
* I didn’t go to Public school!
101. There are a few exceptions, where exceptional teachers have done a lot of work.
I ended up very pleased with my state education, though it was very much supported by my parents. The school scare stories don’t measure up with my actual experience.
Getting back to BORIS JOHNSON
Smart move by him (at the urging the Oz-man I reckon) to announce that if he’s elected Mayor of London he will give up his seat in Parliament.
Plus added intentive for Liberal Democrat voters to give their 2nd choices to Boris!
Only half joking. The philospher at 101. has got it about right in his first sentence. State secondary schools are ignorance factories now.
101.”I’m a political centrist, but any party that promises to return some academic rigour to education will have my vote at the next election.” I am with you on that point. I had a great state education back in the 70’s and early 80’s in Scotland.
106 & 107. But i had a great state education in the 90’s and 00’s.
104. Even if a child remembered everything they were tuahgt by the national curriculum, there would still be alarming gaps in their knowledge. Most people I know who have been educated in the last decade or so knew the process of long-shore drift by rote, but don’t know where major countries are. There is something seriously wrong with that. The same goes for teaching a history of Britain without mentioning the Glorious Revolution. It seems to me the sole aim of the national curriculum these days is to try to persuade kids that learning is fun. That is a fine goal for under ten year olds, but beyond that point we should be imparting a basic academic knowledge to every child in the country.
108. Did it include spelling and punctuation?
108 But what you consider a great state education the generation before would consider a mediocre one compared to theirs and the generation before that think you had hardly an education at all.
111. Indeed. In 2003 the Maths A Level had one sixth of the course removed from the syllabus, on the basis that it was now more difficult than A levels in other subjects. If I ever needed proof the system was getting dumbed down, that was it.
111. Or, the current generation might consider the previous generations education inferior.
OT - Washington State new poll
Washington Poll, by U of WA Political Science dept
300 sample, fieldwork Feb 7-18, margin of error 6%
US President:
Obama = 55%
McCain = 40%
Clinton = 45%
McCain = 49%
WA Governor:
Gregoire (incumbent d) = 54% (+7 since Oct 2007)
Rossi (challenger r) = 42% (-1%)
for more info:
http://www.washingtonpoll.org/
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/connelly/352314_joel22.html
111. The high point of state education was probably the late 1950s to mid 1960s. Before then, patchy. Afterwards, gradually eroded by the introduction of the comprehensive system and the dumbing down of the syllabus via the baleful influence of the educationalist establishment. The decline accelerated rapidly from the early 1990s.
Gareth Epps to win Henley for the Lib Dems!
113. Your education can’t have been that good G. You ended up a Labour supporter, after all.
This row over David Camron’s comments just seems coplete nonsense to me.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7259506.stm
Its quite clear that he was/is talking about the government’s pledge to send pupils to Auschwitz is the gimmick, not pupils going to Auschwitz.
Is there a general election coming soon? Because this is the kind of non event arguement that tends to happen when a GE is close?
117. There’s less of them around than in 1997. So the system must have done some good.
I would place myself in between Labour and the social democrat side of the Liberals, however.
118. Of course it’s a gimmick. Clearly $350 spent on a dozen private tuition lessons could have enhanced the students historical knowledge far more. It’s just not headline grabbing.
119. “I would place myself in between Labour and the social democrat side of the Liberals, however.”
Sounds like too much philosophy and not enough economics in that degree of yours. Better take some lessons on comparative economic growth rates!
Gimmicks are all this clapped out government knows.
Except for smears of course.
“Police concerned about order to stop weapons screening at Obama rally”
http://www.star-telegram.com/667/story/486413.html
Dallas, of all places, would be keen not to have their approach to politicians’ security compromised.
Notable for the graph being ” adjusted for grade inflation:”
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displaystory.cfm?subjectid=526356&story_id=10180816
Tom Brown: “State secondary schools are ignorance factories now.”
Peter Hitchens has likened them to factories turning out Labour voters. I think there’s some truth in this. Between comprehensives and the BBC, and the uber-political correctness which rules with a rod of (foreigner-made) iron, one needs to have an unusual thirst for knowledge and perception of bias to reach the golden uplands of respect for Britain’s great history and heritage and where voting Tory wasn’t accompanied by howling choruses of “oooh, nasty”. Many of our children must find it difficult to imagine a Britain uncrippled by ethnic-diversity-concerns and unsafe town and city centres, where good manners were the rule except for a small underclass. They should be told that it’s possible to have a thriving economy and society with taxation and public expenditure much smaller (at least 10% of GDP) than today.
123. Ukpaul, feel free not to answer this, but what subject is it you teach?
118 Had Whiskey.
Was I imagining it or it that balanced sensible reporting from the BBC?
Or is it because there are some guidelines about reporting ‘race rows’ carefully in the interests of political correctness?
Tough call for them.
125. Hitchens exaggerates, but only a little. The rubbish taught in schools has definitely contributed to the longevity of New Labour.
It hasn’t quite brought about the socialist revolution some of its originators might have hoped for, but it has inculcated a lot of younger people with a distorted set of basically pro-Labour attitudes that take a good deal of shaking to remove.
After winning a third term, another first for Labour.
Jails declared ‘absolutely full’ for first time in history!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=517655&in_page_id=1770&ct=5
Hooray Labour!
125. & 128. Based on the evidence of student voting patterns, it’s benefitted the Lib Dems a lot more.
129. Crime up, despite more prisoners. Classic public sector inefficiency, Labour’s speciality.
130. Given that they are indistinguishable from Labour - or even further left - the point still holds.
This whole “gimmick” story sounds to me like the Brit way of getting in on the Chelsea Clinton “pimping” uproar.
In both cases shows the pitfalls of not having a properly nuanced ear when it comes to political discourse.
Plus the thing is quicksand. The more you protest, the deeper you are sucked into it.
126 - I try not to identify myself too much because things can easily be googled but I’ve posted in the past that I teach drama/theatre. My main concern has been over the changes in marking over the past ten years, there is much less rigour and it’s often farmed out to either those who take on too much or don’t know enough. Students are as they have always been, keen but too focused on passing exams and not on learning - understandable given the focus on results but counterproductive.
It’s a good job but, in my subject area, very time consuming, with so much extra-curricular work on top of a very exam class heavy timetable. It’s also a subject area which needs a fair working knowledge of others such as politics, psychology, history, design and so on so it’s never dull.
134 - BTW there other teachers and trainees on here - Kingbongo, SBS and so on.
127. Yeah, its a good report. Its quite onvious from reading it what Cameron was saying, and that the whole “uproar” thing is just complete nonsense. When I first heard about this, this afternoonb, I thought he’d said something really terrible. Now I have time to actually find out what he said, I find the whole thing is just a total non-event.
Hasn’t Ed Balls got anything better to do than try to manufacture a fake arguement? Shouldn’t he be pugged away preparing to replace Alistair Darling any time now?
124 my post at 111 was a bit tongue in cheek - I mean I know O Levels and A levels were a lot harder in 1970 than today’s equivalents but all recent generations consider the next has an easier life (as well as getting more sex earlier, drinking more, causing more damage and being altogether louder than our generation was, though the music isn’t as good today as it used to be, just noise or remakes)
The reals story isn’t the fact that the Tories fell for the “gimmick” like a schmuck sliping on a banana peel.
The story is that this incident is essentially a minor echo of a much bigger story that demonstrates the existence of serious strategic/personnel difficulties in the top ranks of David Cameron’s Conservative Party.
Namely the Tory front bench’s response to Northern Rock. Where at least in the short term it looks like the Tories essentially have lost ground with an issue tailor-made for them.
How did THAT happen fer Jaysus sake?
137. I agree, A-Levels are easier now. But i took four, as well as dropping a fifth into A2. individually they’re easier, but the quantity is greater. I’m not sure the decline in difficulty altogether makes up for the increase in workload.
137. I agree, A-Levels are easier now. But i took four, as well as dropping a fifth into A2. individually they’re easier, but the quantity is greater. I’m not sure the decline in difficulty altogether makes up for the increase in workload.
138. Its early days on the NR thing. Lets wait and see how people view it in six or twelve months time, shall we?
There was a time, for a few weeks in April and May of 2003, when Tony Blair and Labour looked to be doing quite well over Iraq. But it was the briefest of moments, and by June 2003 everything started to look very differant…
In other words, Labour have, all along, been way too complacent about Northern Rock and the damage it could do to them. Just because they appear to have come out of the actual annoucement of nationalisation quite well (there is still a large majority that think its been handled badly) doesn’t lesson the potential for long term disaster from this.
140 - As of next year they change again, my particular one cuts the amount students need to cover (and the number of exams) but will need more depth. About time, now can we have the GCSEs changed please!
Obama on track to raise $50M in February!
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/02/obama_on_track_to_raise_50m_pl.php
102. Sally C. Completely agree with you about Simon Schama’s History of England series. He is a superb communicator.
116 Goupillon, the Lib Dem candidate in Henley is Susan Cooper, a local councillor from Wokingham. Gareth Epps is their candidate in Reading.
Just a factual response to 356 on the last thread (reposted): Actually my local comp (Kimberley) has been sending two children to Auschwitz each year, on a (long) day trip which I think is partly or wholly funded by the Holocaust Memorial Trust. They come back and report to the whole school on what they saw. It’s thought by everyone I’ve talked to, including some of the kids, to be a good idea.
145 Sorry, that should be Wallingford, not Wokingham.
145.Augustus - Gareth Epps has a higher local profile than Susan Cooper and I believe would be the best candidate to choose if it is truly considered the Lib Dems could win this seat.
146. “It’s thought by everyone I’ve talked to, including some of the kids, to be a good idea.”
…including tories, no doubt.
Why hasn’t Cameron just apologised for any misunderstanding and moved on?
149. Cameron didn’t make the mistake. The mistake wasn’t really offensive. Move on Gabble.
146 Nick, quite agree its a good idea, one of our closest friends lost all his family, friends, the whole of his home village in East Prussia either shot and thrown into trenches or in Auswitchz. We should never forget how easy it is for the most cultured and civilised society to fall nor should we forget the victims. Would prefer that we hadn’t stood by as Mao marched the intelligensia into re-education and death, Pol Pot murdered millions, Saddam gassed the Kurds and Iranians, as Bosnia burned and the boys and men of Srebrenica were marched into woods and shot, as men, women & children were shot, stabbed, burnt alive in Rwanda and, as we post, the people of Darfur huddle in fear.
Perhaps all those who visit and report back will embolden the next generation to say, with real intent, not as our generation merely mimes, “never again”.
The point is that Ed Balls announced something different from what he delivered. He made it a political PR release, used Auswitchz for political gain. He did again today.
I think it was a stupid thing for Cameron to raise and call a gimmick. Stupid, stupid, stupid. It was a cheap shot.
From a purely PR point of view our professionals should know enough to know reporters are interested in a story - so putting gimmick and Auswitchz in the same sentence gives them the headline, sets the scene for a bit of “controversy”.
In the hard world of politics Cameron made a mistake, Balls made a bigger one and Cameron needs to hit him hard on his further use of Auswitchz for petty political purposes. Cameron needs though to apologise to the charity concerned for denigrating its work.
Perhaps power has gone to Dave’s head !
Cameron topples Brown in power list
Feb 3, 2008
Gordon Brown is less powerful than David Cameron, according to a list of the most influential men in Britain.
The Prime Minister took the top spot in last year’s ranking of the 100 Most Powerful Men.
This year, he resides one place below the Conservative leader, who tops the list.
Mr Cameron, 41, has moved up from 17th position in 2007 because of his “ability to influence”.
Mr Brown, 56, is now one place above media magnate James Murdoch followed by Bank of England governor Mervyn King.
GQ magazine, which put together the list, writes that “Cameron has stayed on the front foot” since promising to slash inheritance tax and stamp duty.
It says: “It is Brown’s responses to the Tories’ initiatives that are the real driving force behind current Government policy-making.”
Tesco chief executive Sir Terry Leahy is fifth in the list, followed by BBC director general Mark Thompson.
Newcomers in the top 100 include graffiti artist Banksy (86), Scottish tennis player Andy Murray (87), Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond (89) and actor Sir Ian McKellen (98).
The list appears in the March issue of GQ, from February 7.
150. Sorry G. How inconsiderate of myself to interrupt your riveting educational experiences with a political post.
Re Henley - I seem to remember canvassing somewhere in darkest Oxfordshire for the Liberals (as we then were) and being given tea afterwards at a Lord Henley’s pad - all a bit hazy now must have been in the 60s but if I remember correctly impressive rugs!!!
Everything Labour does is a political gimmick.
Where is Mike in the power list? - If he is not in the top 50 then the list is wrong!!
Ted
Cameron didn’t denigrate their work. The matter appears to have been raised with him by a Tory and senior HET member who was concerned at the disinformation/shortfall in funding.
Im sorry if you thought I was saying…..but I was not…etc is about it.
The BBC link above is informative.
Drafting Ball’s response is harder.
Interesting that some Tory commentators have benn critical of their own.
Have you seen ANY Labour critisism of Balls ?
It appears “religiosity” is commonly used in “Texas speak”:
http://religionblog.dallasnews.com/archives/2008/02/gallup-finds-a-religion-gap-am.html
157 Better for Cameron to have raised in HoC, presume Balls has a question session?
151: Ted, I agree with your first paragraph (and it’s more or less why I voted for the Iraq war, which perhaps shows the other side - intervention may *sometimes* turn out to have higher costs than non-intervention). I’d rather not get into the other aspects - it’s too serious a subject to be a good basis for the usual argy-bargy on the site.
O/T Reported in Time Swampland that one of Clinton’s major Texan Hispanic cheerleaders turned up at an Obama rally.
State Rep. Aaron Peña said ““First of all my son, Aaron Peña III, is working for the Obama campaign. ….“I think last night’s debate in Austin was a turning point in this campaign. I think it will become increasingly evident very soon who is going to win this primary. While Barack Obama may not win the popular vote in Texas, the passion of his organization has an advantage in winning the important caucus delegates.”
http://time-blog.com/swampland/
157. I’m critical of it.
Just tuned into the whole “gimmickgate” story - Reminds of the bungled joke by John Kerry early last year. Much political gain was made by the republican party and press at his expense when in reality, he just fluffed a gag - in no way was he denigrating the troops but his opponents spun it that way.
In no way was Cameron/The Conservatives saying Auschwitz visits were a gimmick but everything would appear up for target practice in today’s political climate.
They should’ve known this could be jumped on and I’m sure someone’s had a bollocking but Ball’s response looks too damn opportunistic for my liking - Anymore and he’ll start to morph into Osbourne.
160.Nick, I posted a link to an article in the Herald from last year which highlights the work of the The Holocaust Educational Trust (HET) regarding trips for children in Scotland @374 on the previous thread. Really worth reading.
I imagine that the press office in both CCHQ and Labour HQ went into warp speed this afternoon as this story unfolded. But anyone got the inside edge on what Ed Balls was up to that warranted the comment “Ed Ball’s incontinent response is also unpalatable” on the Boulton and Co blog?
Boris’s buddies, the Natwest 3 are banged up, and then the Tories opposition to the DNA database is shown to be ridiculous, quickly followed by Marly lights Cambo insulting Holocaust victims. Jesus has Caulson been on the sauce.
Fair play to Nick Clegg, he was on News-Night opposing a national DNA database – NOT a Tory in sight…PATHETIC.
What ever next: Cambo listing 26 Labour gimmicks. I’ve read the list, some are policies that are to a degree fulfilled, some are aspirational, and are some ideas that can in the future be successful.
Errrrrrr, I CANNOT EVEN THINK OF ONE TORY POLICY, GIMMICK, IDEA, PHILOSOPHY, OR ANY THING.
In fact read the doc on the Tory web site, the Labour party must be delighted it virtually free NuLab advertising.
Cameron gets quite a bad write up in the Daily Mail together with a ‘reminder’ of some of his own gimmicks:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/pages/live/articles/news/news.html?in_article_id=517632&in_page_id=1770
Boris supported the NatWet 3. If the 3 villains had been paedophiles, murderers, rapists, or even simple drug dealers, Boris would have been out campaigning with the same vigour …..errrrr nope I don’t think so.
The Natwest three are 3 white, upper class businessmen. If they had been 3 white, working class brickies form Henley, who tried to fiddle some cash from a US corporation, I can safely say Boris wouldn’t have been seen for dust.
His opposition to the treatment of the Natwest 3 is born solely from political expediency, ie The 3 men are classic Tory types, and it also gave you the opportunity to bash Blair about his relationship with the USA.
But as it turns out that Blair was right, and Boris is now left defending the rights of three men who lied lied and lied about their involvement in a major fraud, and have now been rightly convicted.
Timesonline On board with Barack Obama — as his campaign scents victory
167 Too much spin.
As British Citizens resident in the UK working for a UK company they were not charged with any crimes in the UK. Should they have been extradited to a foreign jurisdiction without the right to a proper defence and without the US having to produce a prima facie case to answer?
Boris Johnson was joined in his concerns by Nick Clegg who got an emergency debate on the extradition treaty.
167
‘paedophiles, murderers, rapists’,
are you on day release from the BNP compound?
162 Thank you [I think!]
164. I am not sure but see this link. It it is abit opaque but I wonder if this gets near the mark.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2008/feb/22/conservatives.secondworldwar
166 I think he comes out of it as he went it. Those who already think the worst will see one thing, those that don’t will see another.
Lest we forget - here are a couple of quotes from the ever ridiculous Shami Chakrabarti (Director of Liberty(?)) concerning the NatWest 3 case:
“The Extradition Act 2003 seems to allow people to be sent like sacks of carrots from where they live, where they have their support, their family, to the other side of the world without even the need for the barest minimum of a case to be shown here in the UK … This is all about politics, not about justice.”
“… a case of ‘first they came for the white-collar worker, then they came for me’.”
173 - Terribly annoying idea liberty isn’t it? Gets in the way.
Re Saddam “gassing” the Kurds….
Every country needs a “casus belli” to go to war. Halabja is a weak one at best, and is probably false.
This chap might just know what he is talking about…
http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9902E7DD1638F932A05752C0A9659C8B63
174. Don’t worry. Gordon’s doing away with it.
re 173 Gabble remember the famous line about the holocaust (can’t remember who by) about not having spoken out earlier and there not being anyone left to speak out when they come for you.
Ms Chakrabarti sticks to her principles not like your fellow bunker denizens some of whom were quite prominent in Liberty in their principled days.
The argument concerned extradition being a two-way street, that was, it period.
Try getting an IRA bomber sent over here from the US - impossible.
The answer to the question is that yes of course the Conservative Party would be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in a by-election in Henley. It could easily be anything from a very substantial Conservative majority to a substantial Lib Dem one. It has got little to do with the relative weakness of the Lib Dems in national opinion polls recently. Apart from Bromley & Chislehurst, I am thinking of Penrith & the Border.
177. “Gabble remember the famous line about the holocaust (can’t remember who by) about not having spoken out earlier and there not being anyone left to speak out when they come for you.”
Absolutely, my point is that Chakrabarti has misappropriated that sentiment in the defence of 3 self-confessed criminals.
173. Martin Niemoeller
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Martin_Niemoeller.jpg
How about this from John Redwood:
“Where you have alleged white-collar crime … and a situation where the person has committed no crime in Britain … is it right they should be plucked away from their family for a very long time on a charge we don’t think will go anywhere?”
…er…yes.
175.Rod, after the first gulf war I think that we forget which two groups at both ends of Iraq Saddam sought to crush for fear of an uprising following his defeat.
Clinton caught Xeroxing…….. Bill!
http://www.truthdig.com/avbooth/item/20080222_clinton_caught_xeroxing/?ln
Clegg is reprimanded over payments
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/clegg-is-reprimanded-over-payments-786159.html
185.Yes. But surely the sweetness is the irony in the last bit [the two faced twit Mann].
184 Nice link
16.01.2008 from the LibDems own site:
Commenting on Gordon Brown’s statement that Peter Hain was guilty of ‘an incompetence’ over donations to his deputy leadership campaign, Liberal Democrat Leader, Nick Clegg said:
“When Gordon Brown said he wanted a Government of all the talents, no-one realised that incompetence was going to be one of them.
“Whatever the Electoral Commission now decides, Peter Hain’s political credibility lies in tatters.”
http://www.libdems.org.uk/news/hains-credibility-is-in-tatters-clegg.13714.html
163: thanks, ChrisD, will go and look
187.I am going to come to the Nick Clegg’s defence on this,I think the Electoral commission needs to get tougher, but being 6 days late just shouts a clerical error.
I hate this type of article, it seeks to rope in all errors in one category, which they are not. Notice the way that the article ropes in the delayed Hain declarations in the same narrative. Just remember when the Labour deputy Leadership contest was and how long it took Hain to declare.
yes, we all remember the P&B situation…. And its one of the safest seats in the country, despite the best efforts of its MP.
189. No fan of Libdemmery, but I agree.
Guido was on to Hain early on in his campaign trying to uncover donations he thought had been sourced from donors the unions wouldn’t like. It is a completely different position. Poor, lazy journalism. They report it badly and only when it is on a plate.
154: Lord and Lady Henley live in Carlisle and are solid Tories…
Gabble, it does not matter what crime these men have been charged with. The fact is that the alleged crime, if true, was perpetrated by UK subjects on a UK bank in the UK. Thus, if they have a case to answer for, they should be tried in the UK.
Porter at the Telegraph is sticking the boot in to DC.
194.I saw that article earlier and could almost imagine that it was written in Labour HQ’s press office.
European media elite fail to report EU corruption shock:
http://www.economist.com/blogs/certainideasofeurope/2008/02/outrage_in_britain_shrugs_else.cfm
The Lib Dems would run an incredibly active campaign and there are a load of activists in the two Oxford constituencies. However, I’d be surprised if it got as close as Bromley.
193. It’s not quite that clear cut, is it?
They conspired with ex-Enron employees to defraud NatWest by advising them to sell off an Enron owned company cheap so that they could buy the shares themselves and sell them on at a profit.
Enron was a US company.
119 - “There’s less of them around than in 1997. So the system must have done some good. ”
G, I think you meant “fewer” rather than “less”. Education has indeed been dumbed down.
On the Auschwitz (sp? I think the town is called Ocwiescim) matter, I think it brings out the cheapness in both major parties.
198. You’re contradicting yourself. If they were advising Natwest to sell off a stake in a company, it can’t have been Enron owned can it?
No crime was committed against Enron by the Natwest three. If the US authorities wish to charge the American Enron employees involved with the alleged fraud then they have every right to.
199. It’s Auschwitz in German. Your spelling was the Polish.
Der Spiegel: Iran may have nuclear bomb within a year.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,536914,00.html
201 - I thought I had the spelling pretty good. I have memories of my inter-rail trip in 1992 that there were some accents above or below the letters in Polish. Don’t know where and don’t know how to type them.
For those stupid enough to claim yesterday that Auschwitz did not affect them on visiting, they obviously did not take the trouble to walk the couple of miles from the touristy Auschwitz to the eery Birkenau.
So much for Iraqi territorial integrity, or the rights of the Kurds…
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/the-new-invasion-of-iraq-786142.html
200. Natwest held a stake in the Enron owned firm Swap Sub. It was this stake that they advised Natwest to sell off cheap.
Also, they committed wire fraud in obtaining the proceeds of the sale. This is what brought them under the US jurisdiction.
203. I think Oswiecim is with an acute accent on the s (which makes a palatalised s+y sound, a bit like sh) and a sort-of cedilla under the e (which nasalises it, and inserts an n sound before the next letter) so it sounds a bit like “Osh-vee-en-chim”.
Sue Cooper is the Lib Dem candidate. She’s been a councillor in Benson for a long time.
The reason Henley has had a constant Lib Dem (or Liberal) second place is that (a) they have pockets of decent organisation (they ran South Oxfordshire for a while) and (b) Labour is very weak indeed across the seat, except for parts of Thame.
Romsey is indeed the by-election comparison. (Not that I think it’ll happen)
Under Lib Dem rules the sitting PPC would have to stand down in the event of a by election and a fresh selection run. In addition they would need to pass a party “star chamber” to stand in a by election there pre existing approved candidate staus wouldn’t be enough. I know nothing about sue cooper but I do know Gareth Epps. he’d have the organisation, credibility and political capital to mount a very serious challenge if he thought it was worth the punt. That said
1. I think Ken is going to win ( but then I said that about Hillary)
2. voters don’t like unneccessery by elections
3. ebcause this won’t be a surprise i can only assume the tories will have been working the patch hard for a while
I honestly don’t know what would happen. Bromley suggest it could be close but then look at how well the tory vote helf up in southall?
I think the LD’s should be careful what we wish for. If the result was poor there are few more sacred cows in the party than the by election machine. If that begins to look tarnished then they’ll be trouble.
Johnson has told the world that he wants to leave Henley to be Mayor of London. he should be forced out, regardless of whether he loses big or small in London, by a ‘movement of the people’ of Henley who he effectively has described as ’second best’.
“I want to represent you as long as there is nothing better to do. You should all be very happy that I am gracious enough to stick with you for the time being. Who knows what sexy opportunity might come around the corner?” Not dissimilar to the published action and attitude of certain Tory MPs towards their wife.
I will in Henley and I can promise you there is no chance the Tories will lose it unless there is a massive unforeseen scandal. The town is blue through and through. If there is a market for this my life savings are going on it.
210. Henley’s not even the biggest town in the constituency (that’s Thame).
Lee Jasper Fights back
http://torytroll.blogspot.com
Jasper’s response to the Standard allegations.
Boris will not become London Mayor. Boris is far too English to appeal to the multicultural Londoners. Resident non-British EU citizens and ethnic minorities will vote for Ken to keep Boris out. Labour and Lib Dems require the foreigners’ votes to keep them in power. Boris will remain MP for Henly.