Could Gordon really go BEFORE the election?
November 26th, 2007
Is it worth betting that Labour will have another leader?
It’s Monday and that means it’s the day of the Guardian column of Jackie Ashley - who for a long time has been one of Brown’s most enthusiastic media cheer leaders. And this morning, as she tries to assess the political damage that Gordon has suffered in the past few weeks, she touches on what has not really been debated - could he go BEFORE the general election?
Ashley writes:“..For the past few days there has been an air of drift and desperation. The prime minister seems hurt and surprised rather than roused and up for it. Once utterly loyal Brownite backbenchers, senior ones, tell me they don’t expect him to fight the next election. Blairites who kept their mouths zipped through the first months are plotting again to replace him. I have almost lost count of the number of non-political friends who say: “Sorry, I just don’t like him….what is also clear is that the prime minister’s uncertain performances in the Commons are causing real problems inside the parliamentary Labour party. He should be in no doubt. There is real anxiety, not just from Blairites or those he has offended in the past, but among the MPs he depends on.”
I think that Ashley is right about his Commons performances. The Tory approach seems to be to goad him into losing his temper and when he does that he has lost.
But can we envisage reaching a point where he could be pushed or he stood aside voluntarily? Unlike the the Conservatives and the Lib Dems Labour appears less likely to move against a failing leader. Yes Tony was pushed and he went earlier than he had planned. But that was against the backdrop of last year’s Israeli conflict when his stance caused massive stirrings throughout his party.
A lot depends on the polls and as I’ve been arguing here Labour is not doing as badly as the drip drip of negative headlines might appear. For most of the time, even during the past month, Labour has been ahead of where it was in the final months of Tony Blair.
Very few surveys have shown that the Tories have a big enough lead that can be translated into a Commons majority. Still the most likely outcome of the general election is a hung parliament.
I cannot see Brown being ousted. But if he started to believe that he himself was impeding Labour’s election chances then you could envisage him standing aside. Unlike his predecessor the movement means everything to him.
In the betting the favourite time slot for Brown going is 2011 or beyond. On Betfair’s “Party leaders at the election” market you can get 4/1 on Cameron being the only one of Brown/Cameron/Campbell to still be there. Brown alone is 7/1.
Mike Smithson
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Brown needs to keep calm in the Commons and sack his inner circle. By and large he does the former, and is said to be planning the latter.
The danger is that Brown may find himself in the position of Iain Duncan Smith, whose Commons performances lost him the support of his parliamentary colleagues and press cheerleaders even though his results in the country at actual elections were perfectly respectable.
The circumstances of IDS’s fall from grace, and perhaps Brown’s too,
might be taken to show there are a lot of MPs who know sod all about politics but we start from where we are.
Brown has repeated Hague’s (and perhaps Cameron’s) error in surrounding himself with advisers simultaneously too clever by half and wet behind the ears. They need to go. Far and fast.
Mike is probably right that Brown might step aside if he felt it necessary. Unlike Blair, he is a party man. I made a small wager on that a few weeks back but cannot go in heavily because it is hard to see an election in these circumstances before 2012.
I can’t see GB going voluntarily… unfortunately he believes his own propaganda and would not be able to admit to himself, let alone to others, that he is not up to the job.
However, I think there is a very real possibility that he will be the first PM since Eden to crack up whilst in office and be forced to resign on “health grounds”.
4/1 seems a bit over-the-top to me, unless we take Ashley’s source is referring to solid, convincing rumours (in other words, potentially some actual substantive inside information) rather than speculation based on the fact that Gordon hasn’t seemed very cheerful lately.
As Mike says, the polling is really not all that dire for Labour; They’ve had some fairly gruesome bad news, but still don’t appear to be doing worse than Blair was. I think the only way you turn this into a really disastrous story for Labour is if you take the view that we’re still in Brown’s honeymoon, and once that’s over their support will plunge. I think that’s the view of a couple of the more excitable Tory posters here, but I suspect it’s wishful thinking on their part. Going forward, you could come up with a fairly disastrous economic scenario (world recession -> UK housing price crash -> more bank failures etc) where Labour would be doing substantially worse than now - but that’s not the kind of problem you’d solve by changing the leader, nobody else would particularly want the job either, and I’d have thought Brown would be more likely feel duty-bound to go down with the ship.
Also, if Brown really does think the outlook is dire, he has a few more options that haven’t really been explored; My favourite would be:
- Have his constitutional commitee or whatever he’s got come out in favour of PR.
- Form an electoral pact with the LibDems under FPTP to bring in the new constitution. The coalition would win the next election under any scenario except a massive Tory breakthrough.
- Bring in PR late in the parliament so the LibDems have to behave themselves until then.
- If he feels like it, try to negotiate a coalition to stay on as PM after the PR election around 2015. If not, don’t.
“Unlike his predecessor the movement means everything to him.”
Sorry Mike, but where’s the evidence for this? I very much doubt he’ll remain in position for another 12 months, owing to serious doubts that he possesses the required courage and moral fibre.
3 - Have his constitutional commitee or whatever he’s got come out in favour of PR.
…… thereby guaranteeing coalition government in the UK for ever more - I don’t think so somehow!
Yesterday morning John L was telling us…
“Every Wednesday we are inundated with Conservative activists and astroturfers telling us how Dave has humiliated Gordon at PMQs. Mostly they are wrong. Provided Brown answers calmly and appears, well, Prime Ministerial rather than angry or evasive, he wins.”
I never appreciated that Jackie Ashley and Mike Smithson were Conservative activists
One of the main problems for Brown is the little weasel Balls.
He thinks he is a heavyweight and isnt.He believes in destroying the Tories rather than governing the country and will go to any lengths to do so.
If GB gets rid of him then maybe we are seeing the start of a more concilliatory administration.
One of the main problems for Brown is the little weasel Balls.
He thinks he is a heavyweight and isnt.He believes in destroying the Tories rather than governing the country and will go to any lengths to do so.
If GB gets rid of him then maybe we are seeing the start of a more concilliatory administration.
Seems a bit difficult to reconcile wit Nick P’s assertions that all is sweetness and light within the Parliamentary party
9. I think poor Mr Palmer has joined Brown, Balls & Co in the Number 10 Bunker.
“We will win the war! The Russians cannot possibly advance any further!”
5. Unless, of course, a near majority of the electorate (c 48% ) choose to trust one party with its own working majority in the HofC. If a party is not able to secure a majority of public support why should they have the power as if they had?
5 - One thing people forget about the “Gordon should go for PR” arguments (aside from the fact that it would inevitably cost Labour MP’s seats), is that the LibDems wouldn’t just have the balance of power under PR, they would have a MAJOR influence. A Lab/Lib govt with say 35% Lab 20-25% Lib would not be a Labour govt with a few token Lib cabinet ministers. They would almost be equal partners (not even far off a Lib PM!).
Effectively the only purpose of PR would be to keep the Conservatives out. There is nothing else in it for Labour.
Why should Gordon give up - after 6 months - a job he has waited 10 years of second in command to Tony for,
He’s made of sterner stuff. He’ll destroy Labour imo before he resigns.
13. You made my week start with a smile; thanks
alex@12: “Effectively the only purpose of PR would be to keep the Conservatives out. There is nothing else in it for Labour.”
This is true. So why would a Labour politician do it? My thought in raising this is that what might motivate a politician might be:
1) Maximizing your own power until you retire.
2) Maximizing the power of people representing your political views after you retire.
3) Maximizing the power of the party you represent after you retire.
Now, look at this theoretical situation where Labour are doomed in the short term and know it, to the point where Gordon wants to give up. (I’m not saying I actually believe in this - personally I don’t think things are so bad for Labour.)
It looks like the PR move I’ve outlined would definitely be the way to get (1) - since an electoral pact could probably give Labour a majority on its own for the next five years where they’d otherwise have lost, _plus_ they’d have LibDem support, up until the moment where they deliver PR. It would probably also be good for (2), as it could well deliver long-term centre-left coalitions (although that’s not guaranteed). It’s a bit dubious whether it would be good for (3) - although if you factor in the Tories letting Scottish Independance happen if they get in and shaking up the consituency boundaries, it could well work out better for Labour long-term than going it alone.
But as I say, I don’t believe in this theoretical situation where Labour is doomed and Brown knows it. If don’t think he’ll go, and if he does it’s more likely to be ill-health or some kind of scandal that implicates him personally.
9. “Seems a bit difficult to reconcile wit Nick P’s assertions that all is sweetness and light within the Parliamentary party”. Not too difficult, though. In a parliamentary party of over 350 MPs, a dozen seriously discontented could cause a lot of trouble and fifty so discontented could cause meyhem - yet those are small proportions of the whole. In any case, there are hardly any who are that discontented yet, as compared with the way the Maastrict rebels behaved during Major’s second term, for example.
That 1992-7 parliament is also a good basis for comparison against Mike’s main question, the answer to which is another question: to be replaced with whom? What would dumping Gordon achieve? Blair’s biggest present to Brown was surely leaving parliament in the Summer - if he were still on the back-benches the future of the leadership might be a more open matter. To Blair’s credit, I’m sure he recognised that potential problem and deliberately left early. Of course, there were other attractive reasons for doing so, but not ones that were necessarily incompatible with remaining as a backbench MP until the next election, especially with a very safe seat that won’t be undermined too much by international obligations.
In Major’s government, although he was probably less of a significant figure than Brown is now, his cabinet contained much more experience and ‘weight’ than this one does. Any one of Heseltine, Clarke, Hurd, Rifkind or Portillo could reasonably have lead the Tories into the 1997 election had Major been ousted or chose to throw in the towel (although of course it was the less electable Redwood who challenged him in 1995). In this current cabinet, there is no-one of similar standing, with the possible exception of Jack Straw - and really, would he be any better with his uncertain delivery and all-round boringness? His position as Foreign Secretary during Iraq wouldn’t help either his or Labour’s cause either.
No, short of health problems or a really big personal political scandal, Labour has got Brown as leader through to the next election.
A Lib Dem MEP is reported as defecting to the Conservatives here:
http://www.martincurtis.net/blog/2007/11/breaking-news-lib-dem-mep-defects-to.html
David Herdson I would bet a lot of Labour backbenchers are increasingly wondering whether Jack Straw may not be the life belt.
His performance on Sunday was solid even when talking nonsense and conflating history to prove Labour have not had a ‘Black November’.
I also wonder if the frequency of John Hutton appearing on radio and TV to defend the indefensible this weekend, was some sort of loyalty test. If not the poor man must be a masochist.
I just took the 4/1 on Betfair. I was already in small at 25/1 as well. Jack Straw’s positioning on the weekend where he said he had nothing to do with Northern Rock or HMRC “but I’m sure Alastair Darling and Gordon Brown are doing everything they can” plus what I thought was wishful thinking but now suspect could be for real…
Oh, this is a slow news day (well, so far). I don’t think there’s a cat’s chance of Brown not fighting the next election.
The IDS analogy is risible. A lot of weight here is given to PMQs, which is really the Leader of the Opposition’s to mess up, and which Brown clearly dislikes (unlike Blair, who was trained as a barrister to be good at such things). There’s no evidence of health problems, just a lot of ghoulish speculation - as there was with Thatcher, come to that.
Nor is Edmund’s scenario in the least plausible. Apart from anything else, it would require Labour to be the largest party after the next election, and at least a couple of dozen seats ahead of the Tories. Next, the Lib Dems would not let PR wait until “late in the Parliament” - they’d demand a Bill for a “fair votes” referendum PDQ as a price for coalition, and the Parliamentary Labour Party wouldn’t wear it, so the coalition would be stillborn. Brown would then resign, possibly after losing a vote on the Queen’s speech, and force Cameron to form a minority administration.
(BTW, should “coalition” be hyphenated - tried it both ways, both look wrong to me this early in the morning…)
17 He was interviewed on Radio 4 just before 7:00 AM, but it is not on the BBC website yet. Obviously, the big question is, will he join the EPP? Or will Cameron have to expel him if he does?
Could another Gordon Brown emerge next year, with a genuine understanding of entrepreneurship and data security?
He is certainly looking very shaky and the Blairite plotters will be having some quiet discussions about the matter. If they are going to push him out, this side of Xmas will be their last chance before the election.
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com
17 and 21 - this is a huge coup for the Conservative Party. It’s also a big boost for Andy Stephenson’s campaign in Pendle, where Karim is based.
“He’s made of sterner stuff. He’ll destroy Labour imo before he resigns.”
Sums it up perfectly. They’ll never shift Brown now he’s got the top job. It’ll be armageddon. And it’ll be amazing to watch - unless you support Labour, of course.
As for this week, it’s only 8.30am on Monday morning and we’ve got a new Labour donations scandal brewing nicely with a property tycoon channelling money into the party through a secretary and a builder, all very whiffy. No doubt there’ll be new disclosures on the Northern Rock situation as the Virgin deal perhaps goes through, possibly damaging to the Govt. And the data/discs story probably has a fair few revelations left in it.
Meantime, a LibDem MEP defects to the Tories.
All of which will overshadow Brown’s latest “relaunch” at the CBI, which will see him talk of “leaving behind the old policies of yesterday” - by pledging billions of pounds of new spending.
Brown is like that cruise ship in the Antarctic - in icy waters, holed, and sinking fast.
Bob S You have been looking at the Telegraph cartoon of listing sad ship Labour in the middle of an ice field, haven’t you?
25 John Molton from Alchemy was scathing about Branson’s bid on the ‘Today’ program. Whether this was purely jealousy at not having put in a cheeky bid himself I can’t say but presumably the shareholders in NRK will do the sums themselves and look for a better deal.
As shares are currently at 87p it looks as if the market thinks there’s a better deal to be had too.
On the defection - always nice to have someone see the light etc etc but I can’t see what defectors really bring to a party except a massive ego - that may of course not be true in this case!!
Defection news finally arrives on a (semi) credible source.
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91211-1294287,00.html
Re 17 Do you think he would have defected if he had won the re-selection ballot for the Lib Dems in the North-West? I understand he was well-beaten. Has he been promised a spot on the Tory list given a number of their MEPs in that region are standing down next time? And of course he will have to resign hi seat in the meantime won’t he? He can hardly claim to have any personal vote given the nature of the EP elections.
26 - not seen any papers today. But no, I don’t take the Telegraph. I’m a Times man, just wish Murdoch would give me and the other 40% of its readers who vote Tory our paper back - and get rid of Labour cheerleaders Riddell and Hames whilst he’s at it.
Bob S Well great minds and all that……. You can see it online at Telegraph.co.uk under the comments section.
So it looks as though the “defector” made his move after failing to make the top place in the Lib Dem list for the North West. This was almost a deselection.
Mike Smithson
Guido has a nice cartoon this morning which does sum up New Labour promises and operating.
http://www.order-order.com/2007/11/friday-caption-contest.html
[30] Ah, the Tory mindset in its full panoply. A newspaper “belongs” to the minority of its readers who vote Tory, and not to the majority who don’t… it’s the way you tell ‘em, Bob!
34 - lol
34 - Surely you know that 40% is the threshold figure for an overall majority?
Is there any resolution on the Lib dem vote in the Guardian ICM poll on Saturday,.Is the figure 23% or 21%?Is there alink to the raw data.
Rogerh
34 - er, I believe only 27% of Times readers voted Labour at the last GE. So why should the rest of us have New Labour spin rammed down our throats?
32 - Karim was #2 on the NW Liberal Democrat list at the last election and got elected. I don’t think defecting has altered his chances of re-election an awful lot - for one thing remember where Richard Balfe ended up on the preference list after he defected from Labour. If he wants to continue in Brussels and ends up as #4 on the Conservative list his chances are probably not too dissimilar to being #2 on the LD list.
That said, quite why the NW LibDems insist on reselecting Chris Davies, who is a walking “vote Conservative and Labour” advert, I’m not entirely sure.
I think it’s unlikely thet Brown will go before the next GE but by no means impossible. I would rate it at about 7/1. The fact that serious political commentators are even considering he might not last to the GE says a lot.
Jack Straw would be the obvious choice if there was a vacancy. He is head and shoulders above his colleagues in terms of experience. David Herdson describes him as boring. He may be a bit boring but he has a sense of humour and wouldn’t get rattled under pressure in the way that Brown does. That is Brown’s Achilles heel.
32 - he said he’s been thinking this over for about 2 years now, since DC became leader.
Does a Lib Dem stop telling the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth the minute he defects somewhere else?
37 - 23% was good enough for Cable to refer to on the telly yesterday. And he is normally good with the numbers….although with the dyslexic type-setters for which the Guardian is legend, if it said 21% it was just as likely to be 12%!
41. hee. In June Sajjad Karim wrote on his blog:
“Whilst Cameron attempts to paint a glossy image of a gay-friendly party in the UK, he is also desperately trying to get into bed, at European level, with Poland’s openly homophobic ‘Law and Justice’ party. I just hope the British public see Chameleon Cameron for who he really is!!!”
http://sajjadkarimmep.blogspot.com/2007_06_01_archive.html
40 - It’s often rumoured, however, that Jack Straw has “other issues”, which make him unlikely to become leader.
When MEP Bill Newton Dunn defected to the Liberal Democrats from the Tories in 2000 the Tories demanded he step down. So will the Tories make the same demands of their new man?
Mike, where did you get that photo of the Glorious Leader?
“And at the Hippodrome for another great panto season, it’s the ugly sister you all love to boo and hiss - “Gorgeous” Gordon Brown.”
If the shoe fits….and when Labour’s in-house rag turns on him to join in the booing and hissing, then he really does need to listen to the children when they shout out “behind you!” (Perhaps that explains why he is never seen at events in the company of anybody who has left primary school?)
Brown has become the story in less than six months - and for the very reasons that Tories had been pointing out for many months before the coronation. Sometimes, guys, party political alligience can still let you see to the heart of the matter - especially when the issue is the figure at the head of our Government. It affects us all if the leader is not up to it. Can you imagine what Labour would have said if by some calamitous chain of events Ian Duncan-Smith had been parachuted into the job of Prime Minister?
44. I’ve seen that referred to alex but I’ve also seen it dismissed as an issue here.
Interesting that Lib Dem MEP Chris Davies was reselected as their top candidate by Lib Dem members. This is the same person who was sacked last year by Ming from his role as Leader of the LD MEPs.
http://commentisfree.guardian.co.uk/david_hirsh/2006/05/liberal_mep_resigns_after_invi.html
“Davies insulted his constituent who criticized him by denouncing her as a racist (because he assumed she was a “Zionist”) and writing “I hope you enjoying wallowing in your own filth.”"
Looking at the betting implications, the recent moves would seem to lose the LDs Jewish and Muslim votes particularly in the North West.
Brown doesn’t have to leave if he doesn’t want to. Labour party rules make it virtually impossible to oust him. Besides, he probably dislikes Tony Blair intensely. Do you think he’d give him the satisfaction? Labour MPs are going to look bloody stupid, since nearly all of them nominated him for the leadership.
No, I’m afraid it’s wishful thinking by Labour MPs, and indeed Jack Straw is rumoured to have issues. Gordon will just hope something turns up. If he stays til 09 he had two years at the top.
New-Labour has been remarkable for one thing its cohesion, despite the stresses and strains that are inevitable after two terms into a third, it has not shown any real desire for conflict. So I very much doubt whether there will be a coup, or an attempted coup to remove Brown.
Labour has no desire, (I should think) to return to the sort of internal wrangling that dogged it in the eighties, and the Tories in the ninties. If there is to be a revolution, it’ll be a quiet one.
Jack Straw, the Vicar of Bray of British politics, he always looks so surprised that he’s managed to survive: a man to watch!
[48] HF writes the recent moves would seem to lose the LDs Jewish and Muslim votes particularly in the North West - you underestimate the cunning of the Lib Dem high command, who are now well-placed to present their party as anti-Zionist to Muslims, and Islamophobic to Jews
It’s very difficult to dislodge the leader of either of the two main parties. Duncan-Smith was obviously not up to scratch and the case of Thatcher was so traumatic that any party is unlikely to want to replicate it.
Ignoring leaders who depart immediately after an electoral defeat, poor health seems to be the main reason for going. I mention Eden, Macmillan, Wilson (arguably with early signs of Altheimers), Gaitskill and Smith. Is Brown worth a punt on this score?
He is only in his mid fifties, not obviously overweight and seems robust. My only concern would be his ability to handle stress. The chewed finger nails, the trembling hand, the short temper, the reluctance to delegate and the sulky disposition are examples of this. Once events go wrong and issues pile up, stress can lead to more serious illness. Having said that, he has coped with this all life so far. However, if you are going to have a punt on his departure I would base it on medical rather than political grounds.
Jackie Ashley writes “But the other Gordon is still there. I have met him. To let him loose again will require courage, calmness and self-confidence. He has courage. Perhaps he needs to work on the other two.”
Where in his political career has Brown shown those characteristics in a contest? Everything points to his inability to take on a fight that he might lose, especially if Labour are facing defeat or even meltdown at the next GE. I just cannot see him taking the political knocks of a tough GE campaign where he is not able to control the agenda, or leaving by the front door of No10 after losing a GE.
Most commentators would be right to say that the weekly joust in the bear pit of PMQ’s does not matter or register with the voters in every day life, and they would be right. But if you cannot cope with that rough and tumble, how can you manage the much more rigorous spotlight of a 4/6 week GE campaign? We know that Brown was heavily involved in planning the previous GE campaigns, but who remembers him being a prominent player other than his cheap date with Blair and an ice cream cone?
Answer to the question - a good 20/1 shot but no better. The PM holds all the levers.
Thatcher was an extreme case and it took a serious and sustained assualt beginning with the Lawson resignation in 1988.
The last leaders forced out who were not at the same time seriously ill in some way, were both in wartime - Asquith in 1916 (and he was always a bit “squiffy”) and Chamberlain in 1940.
Eden, MacMillan, MacDonald, Churchill all had “health” issues of some sort. Baldwin and Wilson left of their own accord.
Pedants out there correct me if I’m wrong
in North West LD selection I recall a very close fought contest for position 3 and 4…at the time I thought it was irrelevant as number 3 on LD list would have not had a chance of getting elected. However now number 3 moves into number 2. So maybe there’s a chance for her
55 Who is she, Andrea, any idea?
Well, I’m happy to put my money where my mouth is on this. “Myrtle Proper” yesterday predicted GB would be out by Christmas, or if not then by early spring 2008. The Broxtowe cats offered her a charity bet of 10-1 against his resigning by April, up to £100 - £1000 to win! No reply. So much for Myrtle. Anyone else want the bet?
46
Brown’s got the sort of face you just want to slap.
Addendum. I don’t count Blair, despite the coup last year, because of the Granita deal.
Wilson also had health issues - he realised, even if few others did, that his brain was losing its faculties, particularly he had a prodigious memory
So that leaves Baldwin
The world may have changed - media scrutiny etc. But if Thatcher is a clue you need
1. An alternative leader for opposition to gather around
2. A series of resignations
3. A kamikaze candidate (Meyer)
4. Riots in the streets
5. An issue which the elite belives supercedes party loyalty
6. A leader who is seriously barking mad - (”Never, never, never”)
But Labour will have seen how it leaves a huge lingering sore.
56. Augustus Carp. Helen Foster-Grime was the one in third place, now I suppose she will move into second place
57: As you’re offering bets how about one on ID cards and your party shelving the idea?
46, 58 - is this Gordon’s “Graham Norton” pose?
The number of ballot papers issued by Lib Dems 64,727 a drop of 7,000 (10%) since Ming’s election. It stood at 101,000 in 1994 and 82,000 when Charles was elected in 1999.
The LDs “now has less than 100 members per Parliamentary constituency”
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/politics_show/7103621.stm
Polly Toynbee had stated it was 64,000 a couple of weeks ago, so was close in her estimate (or well informed).
Labour are reported to be down to 170,000 (source Cruddas) and the Conservatives are probably down to 240,000. In recent years, the Conservatives have however managed a more gentle decline than the other 2 and now have more members than Labour and LDs combined.
If we overlook the fact some LD members have 2 cllr positions, 1 in 15 LD Members is now a councillor. In 1999 it was 1 in 18 and in 1994 1 in 22. This drop in membership helps to explain why the LDs are struggling to find cllr candidates in some areas.
But on the bright side your best chance of becoming a councillor is to join the Lib Dems!
54. Thatcher was an extreme case and it took a serious and sustained assualt beginning with the Lawson resignation in 1988.
Lawson’s resignation was in 1989.
56. http://www.hfg4mep.com/pages/abouthelen.html
I applaud Nick P for offering the bet on Gordon.
Returning to the article at the top. Ill health or a personal scandal are the only factors that are going to force Brown out.
Just look at how the Labour MPs stuck with Blair.
It’s not so much concern for the party that would make Brown step down, as the fear of public defeat (and to a man he loathes, Cameron). As has been mentioned previously, he ‘bottled it’ in 1978 (not going for the Hamilton South nomination, for fear of losing to George Robertson) and in 1994 (for fear of losing to Tony Blair - maybe much of his subsequent behaviour towards Blair was a projected form of self-contempt, with Blair reminding him of his tendency to bottle it).
As for Brown being like a wounded bear in the Commons, it’s just like Heath and Wilson all over again. Cameron, like Wilson, gets under his skin. What’s more, Cameron (like Wilson) knows he gets under his opponent’s skin.
Half Brown’s problem is that he’s very passive-aggressive - he’s happy being rude to people who won’t answer back (like telling Blair to eff off, knowing he could get away with it when Blair, as Field says, was very forbearing) but can’t deal with someone like Cameron having a go at him. He doesn’t like being challenged at all. This is why he’s become notorious for clearing off at the first sign of trouble, whether as Chancellor or PM, usually sending an underling like Dawn Primarolo to face the music. And it explains why his desperation not to have a contest this year was almost as great as Blair’s desire (if only against Prescott and Beckett) to have one in 94.
I had a feeling that electing (unopposed) a grown man who bites his finger nails might not work out, but I didn’t envisage things going t*ts up quite so rapidly.
As for replacements, there’s Straw, Benn, or Denham.
53 - If people think that Brown’s image is bad now, imagine how much worse it would be for Labour, going into an election on the last possible day in 2010 under Gordon Brown, when he has consistently been 10-12-14% behind the Tories in the polls for a couple of years. And where he is the issue in the campaign. How often will Labour MP’s in quite safe seats hear on the doorstep “I’ve always been Labour, won’t vote for any other Party - but I can’t vote to give that man five more years…”
The election campaign will be consist of Gordon alternating between a photo shoot at a primary school to give away copies of his latest book, and another fawning Marr interview. The handlers will deem it too dangerous to take him out to meet the people, where the best response he will get is to be jeered and laughed at.
As a Conservative, I want Brown to stay as he will be a huge electoral asset for the Tories. As someone who wants the best for his country, however, I want this embarrassment - and his coterie of fawning acolytes - removed from high office forthwith. Gorgeous Gordon and his Golden Shower could do interminable damage to the fabric of this country over the next thirty months. Labour created this mess. Labour should sort it. Now.
Brown getting a hammering from some bloke from the haulage industry on sky about the price of derv. its hilarious.
62
I can’t quite put my finger on it but there’s definitely summat a bit queer about that buggar (as us old Mancunians would say ;-))
24. Iain Lindley (or others), can you remind me the Euro selection rules for the Tories? I saw discussions on it on CoHome various time but I’m not sure on what is the final procedure
68 I found it amazing that at the Scout’s Live 07 event on Saturday there was audible (though not overwhelming by any means) booing simply at the mention of ‘Prime Minister’ without even saying his name.
Morning all
Re: 63 - Once again, HF, you are comparing apples with oranges. The Liberal Democrats and its predecessor parties have never been the mass membership organisations that the Conservatives and Labour once were. Weren’t there at one time in the 1950s a million Tory members and half a million even in the 1980s ?
All the three main parties (and indeed many organisations, clubs and societies) have seen their membership numbers fall as subscriptions have had to rise to meet the cost of continuing activity.
It’s not of course surprising to see Tory numbers recovering as those of Labour did in the early 90s. The interesting thing will be to see how many of these new Tories stay with the ship when a Cameron Government runs into trouble.
As for the leadership election, I’m hoping to go to a Hustings tomorrow night and that may well inform my final decision.
The LDs had nearly 1
67 Richard
Spot on post! IMO
Re: 73 - Today’s competition - what was the rest of my sentence:
“The LDs had nearly 1″
First prize, a bundle of FOCUS leaflets, second prize, two bundles of FOCUS leaflets.
67 - Speaking of Lord Robertson:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7111979.stm
Always found it a bit strange that he disappeared off to Nato so quickly. Would have presumably been a prime candidate for the Labour leadership post Blair had he hung around.
71. Uhm, I see Conservative Euro Selection procedure here
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/torydiary/2007/04/party_boards_de.html
There’re 3 Tory MEPs in North West elected in 2004. One of them (David Sumberg) is retiring. That would leave Den Dover and Robert Atkins..but will Sajjad Karim be considered as Tory sitting MEP, right? If so, his chances to be in the top 3 are very high. And the Tories will get 3 seats in NW as they already have them and it’s unlikely they will perform worse than in 2004 (when they lost 11% in NW compared to 1999)
75 - 20,000 members at their peak.
76
Skeletons in the closet?
The guy at the CBI who was berating Brown says that there will be fuel protests from hauliers. he claimed that meetings were taking place this week to organise protests. he also called for Darlings resignation for total incompetence. he might just be a nut job but it didnt look great for the PM to be attacked in public at his ‘re-launch’ speech
“The LibDems had nearly 1 shot at power - but they blew that, and spent their terminal years in a slow, bitchy parade of inconsequential leadership changes…”
75- “The LDs had nearly 1 leaflet without a barchart. Alas, it waas lost in the post by TNT”
73 stodge, if a party is genuinely going to make progress it needs to be growing. At -6% pa, the LDs are declining at a more rapid rate than the Conservatives -2% pa. Labour’s decline is -7% pa.
Because the LDs have no union backers or large (jail free) backers, they are more dependent upon their ordinary members for cash than the other 2. So for LDs the implications of a decline in membership are more serious.
57.
Nick Palmer, what sort of odds would you offer on Gordon being replaced before the next GE? I note your bet is only until spring of next year.
Please reassure me that Labour will stick with Gordon!
73 It’s not just the cost of subscribtions, Stodge. In western culture today, people simply are not “joiners”; rather, they are adherents. People still vote, got to church, turn up at Village Green Preservation Society jumble sales etc etc, but they don’t join them. Trade Unions have seen a similar decline in active interested membership.
And don’t be misled by the “membership” of the RSPB or Greenpeace or whatever - those organisations cleverly turn charitable donations into a Membership Subscription in order to keep in touch with their adherents and to make them feel involved.
65 - Valerie, very good!
57, 84 I think that if Gordon can avoid a death spiral of bad news in the next few weeks, Labour can review his progress after the council elections in May 2008. If they are bad, then he will be in deep trouble. As I said above, the real fear for a lot of MP’s must be having a mortally wounded Brown lead Labour into the next election. If that is felt to be the difference between a hung Parliament and a Cameron majority, then action will required.
Has anyone made an issue of the fact that the TNT the company who may have lost the disks is a very close business partner of a certain Rupert Murdoch?
If I remember right Murdoch brought Aussie company TNT into the UK to help break the Wapping dispute. The is an interesting side dimension to the Discogate affair. Can’t see the Murdoch press looking too hard or laying any blame on the couriers here.
I was at a totally non-political ‘do’ on Saturday night and it was someone’s birthday. They cut the cake and did a small speech. Totally out of the blue he goes off on one about getting rid of Gordon Brown…
Now when that happens, you know Labour are in the brown stuff. It just made me think about how potentially bad things might be for the Government.
People just do not seem to like him and are starting to snipe form all walks of life and industries…
However, I also know, that many people don’t like Cameron or aren’t sure about him but out weighing all of that, thier is a growing and serious dislike for Brown brewing.
88
There is no proof that TNT ever received the CDs. The normal signed documents as proof of posting were not signed…
_ Which implies even more lax practices at HMCR.
Can we stop with these silly stories about “apolitical” people acting as a weathervane for Gordon Brown’s future?
90 “There is no proof that TNT ever received the CDs.” - that’s good news, isn’t it?
Can anyone explain to me why the Footsie’s NR share value is more than double the value Sir Richard Branson’s offer value? Presumably Paddy Power’s market on the sale value of NR will be settled on the amount the company purchaser pays?
87: The locals will be ‘bad’ for Labour regardless of how well things are going for Brown.
It won’t be one event that kills the Brownies, it’ll be a death by a thousand leaks, mistakes, fiascos, and political games that go bad.
93 - there seems to be some clause in the deal allowing existing share holders to buy 45% of the shares when they are sold. Presumably if the Branson bid is viable then, considering the price of Northern Rock shares pretty recently, it will be well worth for the shareholders to take a loss of, say 60p now for potential gains later.
You wonder sometimes, whether the discs existed at all and they were euphemistically “in the post” and the junior official was caught in a terrible white lie he just can’t get out of.
How they decide which 45%, I don’t know.
96 - Hmm. The speed at which the bloke resigned, considering some of what seems to have come out since, is a bit suspicious.
From the last thread “So here’s my question. Let’s assume you’re right. How would you call the floor and the ceiling for Tory and Labour GE seats at the next GE? ”
My gut feeling is that the floor for the Conservatives is 250 or so, and the ceiling is 340 or so. For Labour, I’d say 260 to 330.
Andrea, regional Chairmen interview the sitting MEPs who want to restand. They can vote to automatically reselect them, or not. If they’re automatically reselected, then their guaranteed the top positions on the ballot, although members will have the ability to rank them in order of preference.
At the same time, applicants for the remaining places are interviewed. The members then get the chance to rank the successful applicants in order of preference (but below any reselected MEPs). The woman who gets the highest number of votes (regardless of how many the number is) authomatically gets the next place below the reselected MEPs.
However, if the MEPs aren’t automatically reselected, they are given no such preference. They are then ranked by party members along with the rest of the candidates, and women get no preference.
The best way of ensuring that selection is on merit, therefore, is to vote *against* the automatic reselectiion of sitting MEPs.
62 - is this Gordon’s “Graham Norton” pose?
I don’t often disagree with Bob Sykes, but must pick him up on this shocking lapse. It is quite cleary his Larry Grayson pose.
Goupillon. 1) NRK LN investors under the Virgin scheme get shares in the new roll-up company Virgin Money and the ability to buy additional shares at the same “low” valuation as Branson. 2) Other bids like the Flowers bid would have simply bought the shares from holders and that was that. 3) NRK now looks potentially like a going concern - eg unlikely to go to Zero.
The fact that Sajjad Karim has defected on the same weekend as he failed to secure the #1 spot on the North West list (and the only one likely to get re-elected) makes this much less of a coup for the Tories than it could otherwise have been.
It also means it might cause some strife in the North West Tory party, as the list hopefuls (and 3 MEPs) there are likely to be unhappy at being shunted down for an obvious carpet-bagger!
Having said that, it is still a big shame for the LDs, because Karim was their only BME politician elected above the level of Cllr…
91 - I, too, am largely unimpressed by the “I was talking to my milkman….” school of anecdotal evidence.
BUT
I can honestly say that in the 48 hours after discgate broke I overheard at least half a dozen casual conversations (in central London) where people were clearly talking about it; in the street, on the tube, in a restaurant. Normally that kind of shared experience cut-through only happens with major sporting occasions or disasters (bombs, etc) so the scandal has clearly registered.
Whether it will do lasting political damage is not something that one could deduce from anything I overheard.
I don’t want to digress into an IT Conspiracy rant, particularly as I don’t have the technical expertise to support my paranoia, but can someone tell me, is it physically possible to get 25 million sets of personal data onto two disks? I have enough trouble getting my holday photos onto one to send to my brother in law.
The Karim defection also confirms that the LD members selection Chris Davies back at the #1 slot was a wise move. Some LD members were unhappy at his position, given his controversial nature. But he was clearly the right choice.
104 - I think the short answer is “yes”
94 As I have tried to explain on here before , next May’s local elections will not necessarily be bad for Labour in terms of seat losses . The seats up will all have been last fought in 2004 which was a very bad year for Labour in any case and they may well have a bad year next May but make a small number of net gains because they perform marginally better than in 2004 .
106 Thanks. Presumably they were zipped or compressed or something. Pity he’s not available to help me with my photos.
107 - From memory were UKIP not a fairly significant factor in 2004?
99 Thank you very much for that, Sean Fear.
I will keep a note of that estimate, not to hold you as a hostage to fortune, but because it is a valuable guide to us punters on the Site.
It happens to coincide, roughly, with my own ‘gut feeling’ so I now have even more reason to back my judgement with cash.
The implied range does of course suggest that a Hung Parliament is odds on, about 4/6 on I guess, but I don’t suppose we will start to see those odds until much closer the election. Meanwhile, all those who still think a HP unlikely, please don’t keep trotting out the old cant about ‘hasn’t happened before so won’t happen this time’.
Just put your money down. Please.
[Trying to re-posting - either my last post got spam-filtered or I've been banned from PB.com for talking about Proportional Representation too much.]
OT: Apparently The Times are running a piece on the (exceedingly dodgy) story about Hillary Clinton having an affair with her assistant.
…thus giving Matt Drudge an excuse to talk about The Times talking about it and splash their picture across his top page.
http://www.drudgereport.com/flashhh.htm
Presumably this will give the rest of the US media the chance to talk about Drudge talking about The Times talking about it.
91. I kind of like reading them, especially Roger’s friends…
And then after Christmas everyone comes along with news of their lifelong Labour-supporting uncle who says Gordon Brown can xyz. However, family conversations at Christmas are indeed likely to be times at which memes take hold.
I wonder if the main lasting effect of the loss of the discs will be the reassertion of direct departmental and ministerial control over HMRC.
109 UKIP did poll well where they stood in 2004 but did not contest a high % the seats and won very few .
99. Thanks Sean Fear.
Since Karim is considered a sitting MEP, will he first have to undergo the “chairmen test”, right? Considering they would have probably guaranted him something, he should pass it and since one of the sitting Tory NW MEPs is retiring, he would be in the top 3 and so likely to be re-elected, right?
Re 101 Observer - thanks for the explanation.
Paddy Power’s market was based on the question “what will NR be sold for?”. I bet it would be sold for less than £425 million at 9/4.
Presumably the hope value of the option scheme element of Branson’s offer will not come into it when Paddp Power settles the bet?
115, Yes, I would have thought that that would be the case.
111 Who is this Drudge creature, Edmund?
From the looks of that picture, I can’t say as I would blame Hillary. If nothing else, it suggests she has a good eye for a nice filly.
Brown will NEVER resign. The author takes no account of his ambition to rule England. His fingerprints are all over the constitutional mess we find ourselves in since 1997. Gordon Brown deliberately set it up so that he would rule England once he got into number 10 (and before that, as a back seat passenger in number 11).
His ambition to destroy England as a nation overpowers his ambitions for the Labour Party. The Auld Enemy mentality is the bigger driving force within this Scottish nationalist who has pledged to always put Scottish interests first and foremost in everything he does, even as ruler of England (Scottish Claim of Right, signed by Gordon Brown).
Gordon won’t resign. The denial of cancer and sight drugs and higher taxes for the English is only the beginning. He has yet to introduce road tolls and concrete over the countryside.
He will finish what he started. I’d bet my house on it.
104 I’m not an expert in data, but thinking about it off the top of my head. On Raw Data alone, trying to be conservative.
9 bytes NI Number
4 bytes DOB
4 bytes Child DOB
4 bytes account number
3 bytes sort code
60 char/bytes address
30 char/bytes full name child
30 char/bytes full name account name
Minimum data of the order of 150 bytes / record
25 million entries * 150 bytes = approx 3.5Gb
= approximately 4-6CDs worth of data.
Zip compression on the texts fields may help a bit, but not on the numerical data. But there has to be a data structure that will cause an overhead to the figure maybe an underestiamte.
Clever compression could squeeze it in - maybe. It’s possible, but difficult that this would fit on just 2CDs. 2DVDs is much more likely.
Of course could have got my coffee break maths wrong. Why did he have a CD/DVD writer in his machine?
113
Direct Ministerial control of HMRC = ministerial responsibility.
I can see NO Minister of any political persuasion wanting that.
NO Politicians accepts accountability for anything (except when it is good news)..
See Michael Howard on jail escapes and Paxman…a defining moment imo on Conservative incompetence .
(Makes a change from Labour incompetence…)
91 why should we stop reporting things we experienced which genuinely surprise us?
Betting is about being ahead of the curve and punters sifting information to give it a value. You may think Scouts and their parents booing (at least enough of them for it to be audible in the O2 arena) is worth 0 - that’s fine.
I haven’t thought Gordon to be particularly unpopular, certainly no more so than other PMs so was genuinely surprised. Qualitative data is important as well as quantitative - punters use their skills to sift that information.
Roger’s stories are always an amusing aside though of less betting value to me, but I don’t begrudge others if they want to bet the farm on what Roger’s favourite restaurateurs tell him about Dave.
111 - The bloke who wrote “Primary Colors” was actually a women????
118, Hilary Clinton is such a self-disciplined politician that regardless of any private inclinations she may have, she would never do anything to jeapordise her chances of winning the Presidency. So, I think that story can be dismissed as rubbish.
Peter@118: “Who is this Drudge creature, Edmund?”
Veteran right-wing internet-based sleaze-monger. Broke the Monica Lewinski scandal.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matt_Drudge
122 - Just says that standards of behaviour in the Scouts have dropped to being no better than the rest of the population to me
88 - TNT were an Australian company, but were fully taken over by KPN, the Dutch Post Office in 1996, so are now wholly Dutch with no Aussie links.
“Judges’ details ‘posted on unencrypted discs’”
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/politics/article2943555.ece
I expect there are lenty more stories like this to emerge.
125 Nice.
You must give me his address so I can send him a present from the Khaiba Pass.
One item brought up in passing in The Guardian this morning is that the Labour Party were found guilty of racial discrimination in a case that was heard on appeal in the House of Lords last week.
http://www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKHL/2007/51.html
Now whilst this may have been hushed up by most of the mainstream press, I wonder how it will be reported in certain areas and amongst some of the Asian community’s media, especially in some of the midlands election battlegrounds?
57. Nick, I agree that GB is very very unlikely to go before the next GE. However, in the interests of charity I’m minded to take you up on your earlier offer. However your odds are appalling, as Hills will give 16/1 that he goes anytime during 2008!
http://www.willhill.com/iibs/EN/buildcoupon.asp?couponchoice=PO1726712
If you can match that, I’ll take the full £100 available. Interested?
126 I think it actually shows what perceptive and intelligent people Scouts are and demonstrates that they are able to distil complex opinions into easily understood responses
127 Thanks!
111 / 118 / 124
Guys - this is old news. The Huma Abedin affair (and whether or not it’s being supressed by the LA Times) got covered off even on here days ago. A lot of people I know think Ron Rosenbaum has been taken for a ride with this one, but even the possibility of it being true is hitting Hillary’s inflated price.
The Dead Tree Press are, as always, about three weeks behind what everybody online has already dismissed/decided-is-Gospel.
I think the Times of London is irresponsible to publish under the guise of “The campagn is getting so nasty, that certain unscrupulous people are reporting that …”. If they have evidence, then break the scoop - otherwise this is guttersniping, which belongs in diary columns or online fora.
Drudge is, surprisingly, actually a bit of a Hillary-fan nowadays, having previously been her biggest detractor. He would never ignore a MSM story this big, but he won’t be driving or fuelling the aftermath, I wouldn’t have thought.
If this is true, her campaign is as good as over. Even if it’s a lie, she needs to come at least second in Iowa, and must win the New Hampshire primary with a good margin.
99. Sean Fear. Thanks for that. It was my question that you were responding to. Very interesting.
120 - Given the structure of the NI number, (AB 12 34 56 C) with certain restrictions on what letters are valid (eg the final letter can only be A,B,C,D,F or M - see the wikipedia article), you can get the NI number into 4 bytes easily. So it might be possible to get some of those figures down (eg most addresses can be determined by a postcode and house name/number)
107: I agree that the number of seats the Tories and Lib Dems win in May will be nowhere near as many as this year which I’m sure Labour and their shills in the press will claim is a sign of ‘Tory failure’.
The real test is does the national mood turn against Brown which is why some of the ‘I was talking to…’ stories might have merit.
It appears my last 2 posts (including today’s press release from Ministry of Justice) were spam filtered. I referred to Jack Straw’s latest problem. To summarise MOJ is now investigating an allegation that personal details of 55,000 persons including names, bank account details and addresses of judges, magistrates, barristers and solicitors, as well as data relating to police authorities, the Lord Chancellor Lord Falconer, the former Lord Chief Justice Lord Woolf and the Government assessor of anti-terror laws. It is alleged the information is on CDs that were not encrypted and were not sent by recorded or registered post.
91
‘Can we stop with these silly stories about “apolitical” people acting as a weathervane’
Agree,Roger has exclusivity here.
3.
Abolishing FPTP would split the Labour party down the middle, ditto forming a coalition with the Lib Dems. Even in 1997, after 18 years in the wilderness the view from Labour party members was that any sort of Lib Lab pact was unacceptable. It’s therefore ludicrous to think that after 10 years in government and major disagreements with the Lib Dems on Iraq and law & order that Brown would suddenly institute PR.
DEFECTION ALERT***
A Labour member of Suffolk County Council has quit Labour and joined the Tories. Cllr French, who represents the town of Haverhill, defected because of the treatment of the armed forces and Labour’s position on Europe.
121: Well if ministers are going to be blamed and perhaps have to resign anyway, over events where they have no control, then they might as well be in a position to get their retaliation in first.
141 It’s one political earthquake after another today.
I don’t think that there’s any serious chance of Brown going before the election. From what I can see the party is quite philosophical over recent weeks and the moods is that it will pass. But assuming that things were as bad as the Ashley article (which I really don’t accept) there are plenty of reasons why MPs won’t want Gordon to go.
Fundamentally there is no clear alternative that a reasonable part of the PLP could unite around. Thinking back to the uncontested leadership election, there was the fear of less favourable alternatives or political dynamics emerging if Brown was challenged. You had the broad coalition of left-wing Unite leader Derek Simpson and Blairite David Miliband not wanting a challenge to Brown - Simpson feared a McDonnell challenge would push him to the right, Miliband saw that a Blairite challenge would push Brown to the left. Brown achieved a political equilibrium that most are still content with.
I think that there’d be a concerns about who would emerge in another contest. Those on the left definately do not want to see David Miliband succeed Brown. They could resign themselves to that fact that Brown has some traditional Labour instincts, whereas Miliband has none. Having failed to achieve the sufficient nominations for McDonnell the hard left know how weak they are at the moment to push for much their way.
The soft left of Compass type MPs definately couldn’t support Jack Straw or David Miliband and will instead try and encourage the Brown to be more radical. Jon Cruddas ran a great campaign for deputy. But he took the bold decision to turn down Ministerial Office under Brown. True he may be untarnished from this Government, but he has no Ministerial experience to his name. He could possibly stand in a future contest, but running for Prime Minister is a big, big leap from seeking to be Deputy Leader of the Party.
The Blairites will want to push for Miliband but they are reasonably small in number. The only way I can see Miliband winning the Labour leadership is say we’ve lost a general election ‘this is the true path - we diverted from it and that’s why we lost’ etc. Blairites have one shot at putting Miliband into No. 10 and they’re not going to win a leadership election just yet.
If polling showed that David Miliband as leader would win the next election and Gordon Brown remaining would make us lose it, then yes there would be some head-scratching. But how likely is this? Brown placed him in the Foreign Office knowing that he would be well away from domestic politics and as a result he’s starved of political oxygen to generate the required support.
The Brownites are keen for Alexander or Balls to come through in time. An unprepared succession would really go against the grain for everyone around Brown. Brown may not be every party member’s favourite politician, but as worst he’s their second favourite. I just can’t see Brown standing down before the election and can’t think of a good reason why he should and who in the party would seriously call for that.
It was good to see the documentary on Blair to see what an idiot he was. If I hear “I believe” one more time coming from Blair’s mouth in respect of all things to do with war….. No wonder Brown grew to despise him.
Brown, for all his many faults is an improvement in these times. We were all well and truly sick of Blair.
99- sean fear- have you been smoking something a bit whacky to think that the Tories could gain over 140 seats at the next election? I think barring the entire Labour cabinet being caught running a paedophile ring, this outcome is not that likely.
Matthew Parris in the Times on Sat says he can now envisage Brown being gone before the election, althoug it’s clear he doesn;t think it very likely.
Let’s not forget 2 months ago Brown was 10 points ahead. It’s been a rubbish week for Brown, but ask us again in 6 months time! There isn;t anyone else anyway is there?
145 Tyson
Sean was talking top-end numbers. 140 may not be be likely, but it is feasible.
Btw, you think they would be capable of organising such a ring?
146 Hmm…Parris is a good columnist but as a political forecaster,I believe he would lose in a contest with our Roger.
147 LOL!
145 As Peter the Punter says, I’m talking about the absolute maximum. A 1992-size win would probably just about put the Tories on 340.
141 - blimey, you mean Suffolk actually has some Labour councillors? (or “had” perhaps)
That’s the biggest political earthquake here for me!
Either way, first an MEP, then a councillor, must be an MP next.
Calamity Cleggy after that nasty Mr Huhne beats him and confines him to the wilderness?
” DEFECTION ALERT***
A Labour member of Suffolk County Council has quit Labour and joined the Tories. Cllr French, who represents the town of Haverhill, defected because of the treatment of the armed forces and Labour’s position on Europe. ”
Worth mentioning a Labour member in Derby defected to the Conservatives during last weeks Council Meeting, just after an independant councillor had done the same. Oh the Drama! - It was a complete surprise to the other Labour members :0
It’s available on the Derby Council website as a webcast should anyone want to see it. It’s at the bear the begining of the session.
“If polling showed that David Miliband as leader would win the next election and Gordon Brown remaining would make us lose it”.
Hmmmm. IMO the next generation is increasingly a problem for Labour. Currently they all look like over promoted back room boys with the collective charisma of a dried walnut. Someone needs to break out of dull but worthy mode and make a claim to political leadership, before we all die of boredom.
140. But he may institute AV, because under certain assumptions AV..
1. converts a small Labour majority into a bigger one.
2. converts a HP into an overall Labour majority.
3. converts a HP with the Tories ahead to one with Labour ahead.
4. makes no difference to Labour MPs in safe seats.
5. could save some Labour seats with vote shares in the range 40-50%
6. helps the LibDems at the Tories’ expense.
153- 7. In certain circumstances turns a small Tory majority into a bigger one.
153 - AV has always been the obvious route for Labour to take if they’re really pushed to PR: but it’s difficult to see the LDs putting up with its disproportionality, under which they’d only gain a little. I suspect a lot of Labour MPs would push for AV as a wrecking tactic if PR seriously came onto the table.
‘94 As I have tried to explain on here before , next May’s local elections will not necessarily be bad for Labour in terms of seat losses’
Indeed, but given your recent record of predicting locals outcomes, the assembled readers might be forgiven for not taking your word as gospel on this subject.
Suffolk does have a quite big Labour group (though not as big as the Tory group!), mainly based around Lowestoft, Ipswich and some of the county towns. Its one smaller now, of course…
153, 155: can’t see how a weak, impotent PM who is no longer in control of events could even dream of forcing through this act of partisan gerrymandering.
Not this side of acquiring his own new mandate at the GE, with a manifesto commitment to bring this in.
And that’s just not going to happen, is it?
158 A referendum would clearly be required to get approval for such a constitutional change. Could be a close run thing IMO.
IMO, the next election could well be the worst possible time for Labour to introduce AV. The assumptions that such a move would benefit them, are all assumptions that must be dubious in the context of them being very unpopular and a centrist reasonably popular Conservative party.
156 True I don’t expect my word to be taken as gospel but a reasoned argument and contra prediction instead of a bitchy response would be more welcome .
Even in the best of circumstances, I don’t think Brown would introduce AV without either an election or a referendum.
103. Yes I agree I’ve heard plenty of conversations about it. I suppose that’s not surprising due to the nature of the incident but it really has entered the nation’s conversations.
I’ve not heard anyone say ‘and that is why I won’t be voting Labour’. Rather I’ve mainly heard a few jokes at the expense of postal service or even a little sympathy at the bad luck of Brown and Darling. I’m sure this could change if there was widespread fraudulent use of the data, but as for the now I don’t think it’s been devastating for the Government.
Nice place
144. I don’t normally bother with posts that long! But if the Brownites think Balls and Alexander are potential PM’s then they’re more mad than I thought. Not only will they be seen as damaged goods being Brown insiders, but they’re both no more appealing than Brown himself.
What about Benn or Straw? At least they seem affable and have experience.
o/t but more unencrypted data ….
http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/news/article-23422986-details/Judges+at+risk+in+new+security+breach+as+bosses+tell+Brown+to+scrap+capital+gains+tax+rise/article.do
144-HenryG-Totally agree. I don’t see any credible alternative, maybe Straw, but some say that he has “some issues”. And, as you said, I doubt the PLP could unite around other candidate…
157- Suffolk council election results in 2005
Conservative 45
Independent 1
Labour 22
Liberal Democrat 7
165-”I don’t normally bother with posts that long!”
Neither do I! =)
Straw in the short term. James Purnell in the longterm. Harperson will of course fancy the job and fight hard to get it - if Labour lose the next GE.
As a wildcard, if she survives the home office, keeps her seat and gains a bit of gravitas I reckon Jacqui Smith could be a surprise choice in the medium term. Looks much more a member of the human race than some of others. Doesn’t get much respect on pb.com though.
147,149. Don’t forget, the Tories start on about 214 seats, due to boundary changes (not 198).
Any reasonable outcome is possible, and the “possibilities” will no doubt change as time goes on.
My feeling at the moment is the ranges are:
Con 235-300
Lab 270-335
LD 45-65
Nats 10-15
with a point estimate of
Con 276
Lab 292
LD 52
Nats 12
but that could easily change
Link to the Matthew Parris article where he also suggests Mr Brown may be forced out before the next general election.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/columnists/matthew_parris/article2933390.ece
As usual with any ‘Labour Future leadership’ we get the Straw and ‘other issues’ line. Go back to all similar threads and you’ll see the same thing. All this is just speculation, but whatever the truth, don’t doubt Straw’s ability to brush it off. The man has more teflon in his suits than Tony Blair.
O/T. Looking at the picture of our Dear Leader that Mike has chosen today, is if fair to say the next election will be a straight choice between Flash David and Camp Gordon?
174. I do not believe it to be speculation. I would discuss it openly but the trouble is Mike is liable for whatever is printed on his site. I believe there to be several MPs who would come forward were Straw ever seriously to be mooted as PM.
173 - perhaps GB’s advisers have told him he needs “to gay it up a bit” to stop his poll ratings bumming along, and make a decent fist of the next election?
173-Do you know what “other issues” he has?
176 I cannot answer that question. But here is an interesting link from Ben Brogan’s excellent blog.
http://broganblog.dailymail.co.uk/2007/02/labour_agonises.html
177-Test-Thanks!
155.
I have to agree that AV would probably be too disproportionate. I would support the idea of following the French/South American Presidential system and have run-offs a week later in those seats where no candidate got a majority of the votes.
However, in the real world any electoral reform would involve an aspect of PR, which would be unacceptable to the majority of Labour MPs and to party members (like myself) who disagree with the Lib Dems on foreign policy and social issues (as well as some economic issues).
179- “French/South American Presidential system” We also use the system for the election of MPs.
179 & 180. The problem with such a system is you get an event like the Le Pen vs Chirac battle because so many candidates split the vote on one side or another (in this case the left). STV would be far better as it kicks out the last place one at a time, rather all at once, thus encouraging competition on both the left and the right. The best part of the system is that it would mostly eliminate safe seats, as an “Independent Labour” or “Independent Conservative” could stand against a Labour or Conservative incumbent safely, giving the electorate move choice rather than three broad platforms.
180. And these have proved to be no more proportionate than FPTP, often less so. Any single-member constituency based system will produce disproportionality and adding preferences on top of that can make it worse. Whether that’s a good thing or not depends on how you weigh the importance of proportionality within a parliament against other factors (constituency link, ‘legitimacy’ of a government’s mandate, ability to ‘get things done’) which have been discussed on here many times.
179. I don’t believe the majority of the Labour party support Blair’s foreign policy, although a bigger number may subscribe to his authoritarian social model, as you suggest.
182. The “proportionality” you speak of is only party proportionality, which is misleading. STV would mean every MP had a majority of final votes in their constituency, thus more accurately representing that constituency’s views. An STV system would thus reflect proportionality of the geography of the country.
Way back @ 30 Bob Sykes -
“The Times… just wish Murdoch would give the.. 40% of its readership who vote Tory our paper back..”
When interviewed by a Parli. Committee Murdoch said he did influence the editorial stance of The Sun/News of the World but that The Times Board was supposed to ensure its independence from him. Mind you, he said, it doesn’t stop me sayng “WHAT are you doing that for?”…my guess is….he says it quite alot…
184 Socrates all that produces is an MP who is least unacceptable to most people. It does not in any way lead to the MP who positively represents the view of the majority on anything any more than our present system does.
184. Proportionality can mean many things: party share nationally, party share locally, the gender / racial / ethnic / social balance of the parliament, geographic representation; other things too which I haven’t thought of, of the top of my head.
[185] Or perhaps the Times Editor just buys a copy of the Sun so that he knows what he should think!
re 104 Augustus, a number or an address will be a few bytes worth of data and 25 million of them will not take up all that much room. Your photos may have 3 million pixels (or perhaps up to 10 million) in every one of your photos. Each pixel will need to be told what colour it is, and how bright it is, and where it is and that soon mounts up to many Mb for each picture.
I think you Conservatives are being too conservative in your projections.
Labour has seats which when they were in the wilderness were thought out of reach, but in 97 were won easily.If there is a “tipping point” then 375 is not out of reach
In ‘97, I was so conditioned by past track record I thought a majority of any sort would be great, and did not expect to capture Gloucester and Stirling for example. Blair though similar.
Brown has hung his hat on the “administratively efficient” peg, so when it ceases to look efficient, he looks doubly bad. Blair always led with values, that coverd up bungles of equal magnitude to Browns’s
re 155 how many times does it need saying - AV is not PR.
I’m geeky enough to be interested in voting systems, so I always find it slightly surprising that none of the types of Condorcet method get discussed in relation to the UK system.
Condorcet strikes me as a much more comfortable fit for UK politics - it produces a single clear winner in each constituency, and could work as a “drop-in” replacement for FPTP.
Any talk of PR or anything else is imo a waste of time.
Buggins Turn rules for the two main parties. It guarantees they will be in Government for 2 terms every 10-20 years. So perks and posts and pensions and memoirs and speaking tours for the fallen.
What incentive is there to change that?
None. The opposite.
It rewards incompetence.
192. Because
a) they are far too complex
b) the is not always a Condorcet winner anyhow
c) a “Condorcet loser” criterion is easier to enforce.
FPTP fails the Condorcet loser criterion, AV passes it…
A pointer to the next election?
Rough forecast outcomes since the last election based on opinion polls.
Red is Labour majority
Blue is Tory majority
White is Hung Parliament
Black line is Tory lead over Labour
The Tories have so far failed to push into the Tory Majority area.
The best they have done is to bounce around the HP area, and I suspect this will continue…
http://www.titanictown.plus.com/polls.jpg
RodCrosby, shows it very well but there have been several polls with Conservative leads of 10 e.g. ICM March 07 etc.
196. Indeed, but that is why you should never draw too much from ONE poll, as I keep saying. The Black line is a moving-average of the last 5 polls. The Tories have never consistently crossed into majority territory.
Added to the fact that governments usually recover, and things don’t and never have looked that rosy for the Tories.
I still believe the next election will fall into the range
Tories narrowly ahead in a very hung Parliament, to…
Narrow Labour majority..
Rory and Rod:
Condercet is a wonderful system. However:
1. Almost noone understands or cares about the “Condorcet loser criterion” - even though failing it is one of the most serious flaws of any electoral system, especially FPTP!
2. Failing to rank candidates (as most people would for the lower orders) can lead to really wierd results…
It will be interesting to see if some of the AV supporters (Hain, Straw) speak up again in the near future.
You know how most people hate PR for the simple reason that the Lib Dems want it? Well, I hate AV because Hain and Straw want it.
Boasting is probably frowned upon here, but I got Cameron alone at 70-1 about six weeks ago.
144. Jon Cruddas ran a great campaign for deputy. But he took the bold decision to turn down Ministerial Office under Brown. True he may be untarnished from this Government, but he has no Ministerial experience to his name. He could possibly stand in a future contest, but running for Prime Minister is a big, big leap from seeking to be Deputy Leader of the Party.
A side-issue, but how sure are you that Cruddas was actually offered “ministerial office?” My impression is that he was offered a party vice-chair post, but no more than that, and that he turned it down not out of principle but because he (rightly) thought he was worth more than that.
191. The fact that AV is not PR is the very point that 155 was making.
Re. 165, or John Denham. I agree entirely re. Balls and Alexander. Balls is even less appealing than Brown (comes over as a total bumbler and lightweight, looks massively overpromoted even as Schools Secretary) while I chuckled over the press stories about Alexander having to be sat down and told by civil servants that it might be a good idea if he made eye contact with people in his office. Alan Milburn would be great if he hadn’t made such a hash of running the last GE campaign, and all his walking in and out of the Cabinet. Plus a lot of Labour MPs didn’t like the way when, during his time out of government, he stood by the Speaker’s Chair instead of sitting on the backbenches.
Re. 190, I agree. There isn’t any wild enthusiasm for Cameron, but he seems to have taken a lesson from Blair, that governments only lose elections if the opposition don’t contrive to lose them (as in 92). So he’s done his best to dilute the fear factor, and has gone some way towards making sure a sufficient portion of the electorate wouldn’t mind a Tory victory. If you put that together with a government which has earnt contempt or derision (as it’s well on its way to doing), then the Tories could win a large majority, particularly if many Labour core voters stay at home (as many Tory voters stayed at home in 97) or vote for the BNP.
The one obstacle might be the lack of progress in the north (as seen in the last local elections). But Thatcher won in 79 despite a similar lack of progress (when Labour unexpectedly held on to Keighley in that election), and Northern Rock could change that anyway.
As for your wider point, I thought we might win Gloucester, but I didn’t expect us to win the likes of Shipley or Gedling, let alone Harrow West.