Is anyone in with a chance besides Clegg & Huhne?
October 15th, 2007
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Hughes rules himself out of the race
Now that Campbell has joined IDS in the select band of party leaders never to fight an election, the race for his successor has well and truly begun. Voting will close on 15th December with the new leader being unveiled two days later, and Simon Hughes has been the first big name to announce that he won’t be standing.
The Betfair market is now open (although bizarrely the opening show featured Danny Alexander but not Kennedy!) and Ed Davey and Steve Webb have just been added to the list. Nick Clegg has got off to an early start as a red-hot favourite at 1.55 with Chris Huhne currently at 5 (4/1 in old money).
Who might be able to challenge the “big two”? What about the aforementioned Webb and Davey, and is Kennedy a realistic, rather than nostalgic, prospect? Might they pick a woman leader? Lynne Featherstone is often mentioned in this regard, but I have had a few pounds on Julia Goldsworthy at 50 on Betfair, on the basis that if she runs, even if only to put down a marker for the future, the price will contract significantly.
Paul Maggs “Double Carpet”
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It seems clear to me that Ming has done his old London to Scotland travelling companion a favour and taken the spotlight off Gordon the Unfortunate.
I so wonder if the old boy will turn up in the ‘government of the talentless’ as a reward and a sign that the Scottish MPs must stick together.
In answer to the question, no. What is more interesting at the moment is who will run. Kennedy would be extremely ill advised to run. He would poll very badly. If he won, I imagine quite a lot of people would resign from the party, and Rik W may get a defection or two.
There will be other candidates than Clegg and Huhne - probably two. But they won’t win - or come close.
Those could be the passport photos of the same guy, ten years apart.
I think we should be told - the time/space continuum is in jeapordy!
The only consideration should be ‘who will get the best poll results?’, from IDS to Ming we’ve seen what happens when that is ignored.
[from previous thread. But relevant. Ish]
371. Actually, it is obvious what the Sun is doing with that pro-Clegg editorial. It’s not confusing at all.
How many times do I have to say this? News International editors are rabidly eurosceptic. Imagine me, but with much more money.
They are signalling clearly to Clegg, who is the obvious frontrunner - back a referendum and the Sun will shine on you (within the limited aspirations of a 3rd party).
The Sun knows that Ming’s resignation has opened an unexpected 2nd front in the Great Referendum War. If the LDs back a vote it is quite possible Brown would be defeated in the Commons on a plebiscite, very possible he would be defeated in the Lords.
So they are dangling some tabloid support in front of Clegg, hoping he bites and backs a vote. Frankly, Clegg would be a fool not to. Calling for a referendum is win-win for the LDs. It embarrasses Labour and possibly splits the Tories. The question for LDs is - can they go along with this? Some of the grandees in the Lords will resent it.
Before anyone says it - yes I know I am neurotically obsessive about Europe. But here’s the crazy thing - Murdoch and his minions are possibly as euroloopy as me. Amazing but true.
2. Do you really think things would be that bad with Kennedy? I think the insider view surely masks the fact that he’s enormously popular with the electorate.
People like a good comeback, I think if he sold it well enough and didn’t run into any stumbling blocks he could build up a very decent amount of momentum.
Remember that last time a lot of people thought name recognition was a big factor in Ming winning.
If this is likely to be a key factor again, could this give Huhne an advantage over Clegg? Clegg is clear favourite on Betfair but Huhne will surely start off as much better known after his strong performance in the last leadership election against Ming.
2 - Be interesting to see the first polls of public and grassroots opinion.
6 - I think Kennedy is far and away the person most likely to prove popular in the country at large. I think it is difficult to retread if you have been seen to fail in some measure as that can be slung at you. Although I think Kennedy is capable of overcoming that, I just get the impression that is may be too soon for him. Also if Huhne/Clegg or whoever gets it this time and louses it up big time then Kennedy would probably be a complete shoo-in!
I hope Chris Huhne, a great supporter of the ERM in 1991 and fixed exchange rates, wins. That should fix the LibDems.
well, quite a few of the front pages seem to ignore the fact that anything has happend, focusing on drinking and lenient rape sentences. the ones which do seem to be presenting it in a negative way, alluding to an ousting.
If the lib dems cant even dominate the front pages with this sort of “drama” is there any hope for them?? And also why does Nick Clegg want to lead the Lib Dems?? If he is as talented as we are lead to believe, then surely he should use this episode as an excuse to jump ship where he can utilise his talents and maybe one day see them implemented.
5 - enjoying the new seanT - interesting, provocative, and un-nasty. And could be right on the Sun’s motivation, though I think they’re doing a bit of unpredictable movement (Brownian movement, I believe the scientists call it) to keep people guessing.
Still think Cable ought to be in the list as a possibility - being deputy for the next few weeks won’t do him any harm; he was generally seen as doing well over Northern Rock, intelligently concerned but not hysterical, and surely now better known to the general public than either Clegg or Huhne (I only just recognise Clegg and we work in the same place…).
Let’s hope this contest doesn’t get rocked by lots of scandels, like the last Lib leadership election. Although, it was good fun.
ukpaul
I wouldn’t mind betting that CK would be way ahead. He obviously has excellent name recognition and is very popular with the public. However, MPs will not forget his behaviour whilst Leader and the disorganisation that went with his leadership. Also if he hasn’t terminally kicked the bottle, the LDs would be taking a terrible risk.
It has to be Clegg.
You must take account of Steve Webb. He is a popular speaker at local party dinners and it’s the grassroots who count in this. The reason Huhne did so well last time was that everyone was telling them to vote for Ming and they don’t like being told! This will apply even more this time. My money will go on Webb; watch for a bandwagon!
13 is that scandals or sandels?
I’m not very impressed by any of them. It certainly appears difficult to look beyond the front two. But Clegg is Cameron-lite and Huhne can drone for England. Plus Huhne may face a backlash if his supporters are perceived to have forced out Campbell.
The unlikely duo I have backed are Charles Kennedy and Vince Cable at 32/1 and 25/1. I don’t expect either to win but I think there is some value at those odds.
As I argued on the previous thread, Cable is well positioned to steal himself a useful advantage over his rivals. As acting LD leader he will be asking the questions at PMQs over the next few weeks, before the deadline for nominations closes.
Personally I think he’s quite good and against this field I think they could choose worse. His age of course is not an advantage since Campbell has been squeezed out on this basis. But he looks much younger and his haircut has improved him no end.
16. Both.
Please let it be Julia - if only to brighten up our screens for a week or two…
Huhne, Huhne, Huhne, Huhne
Please…
Not least because it could get horribly confusing for voters in 2010 if the three main parties are led by Cameron, Miliband and Clegg. Who to all intents and purposes could be the same person…
20. You don’t think The Clunking One’s going to make it, then? :O :O :O :O :O
Hmm.. Interesting. My this place has been busy today!
No idea to the main question though!
20 - Huhne whilst clearly a clever chap comes across as a personality free zone. Whenever I see him on telly I switch off after about the second syllable. At least with most other Lib Dems I am awake enough to hear their point, to know whether it is good or not.
Blue Moon and Paul have got to be right. The only consideration should be who can win most seats and it’s got to be Clegg. He’s better looking than Cameron and not as irritating. What’s more he’ll get quite a fan club from the female feature writers who care little for politicians other than the superficial . Witness Mary Ann Sieghert
19. Julia Goldsworthy’s majority is a minuscule 1800, in a three-way Cornish constituency, where the Tories have high hopes of sweeping back. Maybe not for long for this world.
She is tasty though.
12: ‘…enjoying the new seanT - interesting, provocative, and un-nasty…’
Yes, the righties are cleaning up their act, but have a word with some of your boys, Nick - they’re being as silly, generalizing and as agro seeking as ever.
24. Are you not worried that Clegg would be more likey to side with Cameron tha Brown, in a Hung Parliament?
well, if we are going on the looks of party leaders as an indicator then surely labour really is in trouble
I think that the LibDems should choose Huhne. The name is related to the German word for chicken (Huhn). Then, both the Tories two main opponents will be led by chickens.
24 - Right idea, wrong person, Clegg is too like Cameron (and frankly, not as good), the space is on the slightly left of centre and that’s where the votes are going begging.
I appreciate you don’t want that to happen but lib dems shouldn’t fall for that labour spin.
People who dislike Cameron won’t like Clegg, Huhne would be slightly better on that score, Laws even more, Kennedy would be the best.
What’s the point of a well run party where MPs feel wanted (a la Ming) if nobody wants to vote for them? MPs have to bite the bullet and realise that they can’t have everything and still remain an MP at the next election.
No. I am certain the Lib Dems would split if ever they were to join the Tories in a coalition and for myself I’d like a vibrant Lib Dem Party who I could vote for if Brown continues on his present trajectory towards Paul Dacre’s rear end!
How about David Heath for leader, other wise known as “Prince Vultan of the Hawkmen” who is famous as “the only MP to have assisted Flash Gordon in defeating Ming the Merciless and thereby saving the world.”
according to this facebook group?
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=6570437819
I’m not sure the subtlety of Hulne V Clegg on a left-right axis will be very relevant to the voters. I don’t know which is which so who does? I like laws but those in the know say he doesn’t want the job
30.I agree with you there ukpaul, Clegg just does not have that special something. Anyway I like Laws, but Kennedy is the Libdems best chance of treading water at the next GE. I don’t know how he did it, but he seemed to attract disillusioned voters from both the left and right of centre.
I remember a few friends who don’t normally follow politics, but who tended towards the Libdems being shocked at how he was removed. I must admit that coming from the Highlands myself, the most common comment I heard in his defence was “but he is from Fort William”, a place where you tend to be either teetotal or a drinker.
At number 129. three threads ago (Brown’s long goodbye) it says
“68&70 Matthew - just to confirm that I’ve emailed Mike asking him formally to record this bet between us.
by Peter from Putney October 15th, 2007 at 11:27 am”
I have read through the thread several times, and I can’t make any sense of what bet is being agreed by whom about what. It doesn’t help that none of the numbered references to previous message make any sense, or fit in with what people are referring to. Apart from wading through hundreds of messages each time, is it any wonder that some of us frequently get substantially annoyed with this website? Is it beyond the realms of technical possibilities to enable people to refer to messages without the numbers being mucked up by a gremlin?
31 Roger. “…I am certain the Lib Dems would split if ever they were to join the Tories in a coalition…”
I think that you are right.
Mind you, they have to be careful about propping up a Labour Government in a hung Parliament. If they did this in certain situations, the voters would actually despise them for it, e,g, The Conservatives have the most actual seats AND a sizable plurality in the popular vote over Labour. (A while back, I think that Rod Crosby demonstrated how this was a very possible result at the next election)
re 35 I’ve been thinking the numbers are up the creek for the last few days.
re 36 not only is it possible, it’s probably likely
And, if I may say so, on the “Is Ming about to go?” thread (two threads ago), I do NOT WANT and I do NOT EXPECT to find a video of Lord *****y ***ing Archer being rammed down my throat on what is SUPPOSED to be a high-quality informative website! Good grief, is it supposed to be some sort of advert?!? Bah Humbug!
Clegg drifting a bit. Now available at 1.72 - the highest so far.
Re 39, John Loony, “is it supposed to be some sort of advert?!? ”
As it happens, yes.
Re 40, Mike L, Steve Webb’s price has tightened and someone seems to have laid £1000 at 1.01. (Can’t see anyone taking that, or quite possibly even seeing it most of the time).
I just cannot see how the left wing Europhile Lib Dems could ever join the Tories in government. The difference between the Lib Dems and Tories is far greater the difference between NuLabour and the Tories. A Tory-Labour coalition is more likely to succeed!!!
Danny Alexander? Why not?
He is a professional and competent operator and very popular in the party.
Not being known nationally would not be a handicap.
In fact like Chris Huhne’s candidature last time it would be a positive as people would seek to find out more about him rather than a slightly known entity who people would already have formed opinions about.
He should seriously consider it.
43 ctd
The Lib Dems working with the Tories is like the Respect Party working with the BNP!
I was the one who asked for Webb and Davey to be added as I think they have a chance. However, even I think Webb’s price is going a little low!
Re 45, Dave, nah I think his price ought to be 2’s. I note there are 3’s at good value (he says ramping his own book
)
I have already made money on Steve Webb gaining a free bet!
All punters will, of course, be wary of odds on the various candidates for the LibDem leadership, after what happened last time.
I refer you all to page 129 of “The Political Punter” for details. (Basically Huhne’s price was manipulated in an attempt to make out that his support was greater than it really was).
Webb now 17-1.
42. Benedict. No. Someone is offering to lay Webb at 1.01 to £1000. So they are risking £10 to win £1000 if someone was foolish enough to match the bet. The bet has not been matched. the matched bets are recorded in the right hand side column. I think it’s done in the hope that someone misundersatnds the odds and the layer then makes a bit fat profit from the gullible punter.
Re 50, Stjohn, I got why it was there I just could not see the point, but then realised that all the positions have been covered in this way. Still, I should have an all green book shortly.
Did anyone notice that Lembit Öpik quit as leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats on the 13th.
Could he be a quiet one, waiting in the wings.
Re 52, IanP, Shockingly enough I think some here did
Could he be the quiet one? Well he could be the damn near silent one!
52&53.Be interesting to see if this clear out at the top extends to Nicol Stephen in Scotland, I for one am surprised that he has managed to keep his job despite the Libdems performance in May.
Re 54, Chris D Yes quite. Dismal, but there you go. I am off to bed!
Nice pictures. Nick Clegg is genuinely good-looking isn’t he? He could be a preppy character in an American movie. If the libdems pick him, I guess they’ll be going on looks. If you lot do go for him, make sure he doesn’t put on weight - it would ruin him. No sense picking someone young if he turns to fat.
51. People put up 1.01 for all selections so that they can be at the front of the queue if and when that selection starts to get matched at 1.01. This essentially gives them a “free” 100/1 bet - if something happens whilst the 1.01 is being matched then they end up with a winner, otherwise they may choose to bail out by backing back at 1.01 when there’s only the last bit left.
This is extremely profitable in e.g. football since you often see 1.01 matched for over a minute or more - if a winner (or equaliser) is scored in that time, the 1.01 layers clean up, otherwise no damage done.
Historical data shows that laying 1.01 “blind” on betfair (for e.g horses / soccer) is profitable, but only if you are at the front of the queue.
To be honest I’m not sure how well this translates into political betting since, unless there are results leaks or overwhelming poll numbers it is unlikely that any candidate will actually trade at 1.01 over a period of time. Still less Steve Webb.
The LibDems would be crackers to select either of these. Two years in Parliament and standing for leader - and putative future government coalition partner. What a joke. Speaking as someone who is favourably-disposed towards the LibDems, I would have to say Clegg or Huhne are not the solution now.
Huhne is just doing a “Jackie Ballard”, and is as credible a leader in the televisual era as she was. He looks like Stan Laurel, for chrissakes!! His candidature is more about holding Eastleigh than truly aspiring to lead the historic third party in British politics. Please Lib Dem members, let him stand, but DON’T vote for him….
The LibDems have got themselves into a terrific mess, and need to pull a rabbit out of the hat in this leadership election, or face a wipeout at the next general. They can’t afford to get it wrong again….
It can’t be someone first-elected in 2005 really. There is only ONE candidate who can turn this around. Charlie, do your duty…
If Kennedy comes back, the past two years will hopefully be forgotten as an aberration by a forgiving electorate. There really is no alternative.
Rod @ 3.03 am
Whilst accepting all you say on the positive side, Kennedy has one very major drawback - his history.
Just as Ming never got away from the age problem, Kennedy will always be under scrutiny for his taste for alcohol. Just imagine if he misses a meeting due to illness, or fluffs a question, or delivers a below par speech. The press will be full of “is he back on the sauce” questions.
Kennedy also suffered for the Chat Show Charlie persona. Sure, he is very likeable and a great campaigner, but was he taken seriously as a potential prime minister ? (As an aside Boris Johnson will have similar credibility problems in winning the London mayorality.)
And then there’s his ginger hair, his Scottishness, his reputation for lacking a grasp of detail, and his disinterest in the way the party is organised and operated.
On top of all these downsides, he would be the back to the future candidate.
All things considered, it just HAS to be someone else.
RodCrosby@58: Absolutely right.
The LibDems need someone who can:
1) Keep them in the news.
2) Be charming and charismatic and say something interesting without offending floating voters.
3) Keep them in the news.
That man is Charles Kennedy. Who cares if he goes on the occasional drunken binge and forgets what their policies are? It’s not like the voters were going to remember what their policies were anyway. And if there’s one newsworthy vice that the voters can identify with, it’s going on drunken binges.
So maybe the MPs don’t like him. But do they want to get re-elected or not?
59: If he were running for leader of Labour or the Conservatives, the things you mention would matter. But he doesn’t need to be a potential Prime Minister. He needs to be the bloke you vote for to express the fact that you don’t like Brown or Cameron.
When the LibDems get over 200 seats, then they can worry about being taken seriously, looking Prime Ministerial, people gossipping about whether their leader’s back on the drink, etc. Right now, those things are the least of their worries, and all publicity is good publicity. (As long as it doesn’t involve the leader plotting to kill his gay lover.)
But LDs cannot afford to neglect the need for effective organisation. When there were only twenty or so MPs, than sheer force of personality was important - but you need someone who can avoid policy conflicts within the party; can keep the parliamentar party on board; and keep electoral strategy coherent and well-planned. That’s CK’s other major flaw. If he were elected, and found himself unable to cope, the LDs may well suffer in seat terms even if they maintain or increase their vote levels.
The Lib Dem national campaign in 2005 was a bit of a disaster. Don’t understand why so many are talking Kennedy up.
A huge fan of CK but he won’t run (sticks out neck).
Danny Alexander seems good to me… but has the same eurofanatical views as Huhne from what I can tell.
The Lib Dem national campaign in 2005 was a bit of a disaster. Don’t understand why so many are talking Kennedy up.
The Lib Dem national campaign in 2005 was a bit of a disaster. Don’t understand why so many are talking Kennedy up.
For the first time, I’ve checked out the agreeably bonkers LibDemVoice site. An earnest chap argues that the proposed leadership election timetable leading up to Christmas is much too short - “That strikes me as far too abbreviated a timetable.”
Or as Mong might have said in his trendy speak, “bring it on – not!”
http://tinyurl.com/yoj7o6
35 Paul, whilst on the topic of unrecorded bets……..
Roger and I have two unrecorded £ 100 charity wagers as well
1/ The outcome of next years Mayoral election (I have Boris, he has King Newt)
2/ I have Boris’ combined first and second preference votes being above Norris’ tally in 04, he has below.
If you could record them I would be grateful
If Lib Dems go eurosceptic and low tax, they wll revive. There might be a leadership contest within Labour before long, and there is nothing to say that Labour would not go eurosceptic too. The Conservatives could be the most pro-Europe party within months from now.
Thanks for reminding me of the detail of the second bet TB. I am right in thinking that if one bet goes one way and the other goes the other they don’t cancel each other out? In other words the charities make £200 either way?
No relation to Captain Clegg, (The Scarecrow) I suppose? Think they’ll probably go for Clegg, as the candidate most likely to appeal to those Libdems who are now saying they’ll vote for Cameron.
Have any bookies priced this up. Betfair liquidity is terrible.
Morning all, new thread now up.
Thanks
Double Carpet
CK will always have to live down that TV piccie of him at the conference?/Parliament mopping his brow, sweating profusely and unable to perform.
|Like Kinnock’s fall on the beach, it will always haunt him.
Personally I like CK but would never vote for him.
Nick Robinson says it will quickly become a two horse race and it’ll be “mighty close”. I’m surprised. If Hunhe couldn’t get close to Ming why are the party likely to choose him ahead of Clegg?
71
Hmmm could be his grandfather, quite a family tree if it is!
http://tinyurl.com/33y4×6
8 - The LibDems will be up in the next poll, as this episode will have reminded people that they actually exist
Based on the previous ICM poll, possibly C 41, L 34, LD 16
Kennedy against Blair worked OK. But two Scottish party leaders at this point would be asking for trouble. The English vote is already sensitive to the nationalist issue. It would help Cameron if the Lib Dems go backwards to Kennedy.
Their best bet is to go low tax and eurosceptic re the referendum on the Constitution. Otherwise they’ll be out of the game. Things have moved a long way since Kennedy was last around.
I think a female candidate might rustle a few feathers, especially if the party feels they need to broaden their appeal after Ming failed to capture the imagination of the voters. It is obviously Nick Cleggs to lose, but didn’t we all say that about David Davis?
http://lettersfromatory.wordpress.com/2007/10/16/youre-too-pessimistic/
70 I think so Roger.
Like you my alturism only runs so far.
£ 200 or nix is agreed. The bets are cross cancelling (or otherwise)
77. This story is already down to the second lead story on the Guardian (behind Mr Putin visiting Iran). How much interest do you think there actually is in who leads the Libs? I wonder if their vote might yet have further to fall.
My colleagues in the commentariat love Nick Clegg. They would marry him if they could. I exaggerate, but only slightly. He’s what they expect a modern media-friendly party leader to be. Expect pro-Cleggery to dominate the punditry.
82.I had noticed that with Fraser Nelson yesterday.
Surely the election of David Cameron shows that front runners do not necessarily win the race. Watch out for a female cadidate and possible victory.
The LibDems need to be different.