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Month: May 2005

IG Index to sponsor Politicalbetting party

IG Index to sponsor Politicalbetting party

The Politcalbetting party is going ahead in London on Saturday June 25th and Bookvalue – also known as Philip, is handling the organisation. We are being helped by a generous contribution from IG Index which should cover some of the core costs. The plan is to book a room in London, possibly Westminster. There will be some cost to participants. Please could those interested in going send an email to book_value@hotmail.co.uk as soon as possible. Thanks to Philip and thanks…

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Could the 8,226 on the postal vote list be the key to Cheadle?

Could the 8,226 on the postal vote list be the key to Cheadle?

Will party workers be less reluctant to “help” postal voters get their ballots in? In an article in the Times just three weeks before polling day Cheadle was singled out as the prime example of a marginal constituency where there had been a big increase in postal votes over 2001. It noted on April 15th that In Cheadle, Manchester, where the Liberal Democrats have a majority of 33, the number of applications stands at 8,226, nearly five times the 1,695…

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Would choosing Clarke be the Tories’ “clause 4” moment?

Would choosing Clarke be the Tories’ “clause 4” moment?

Can the Tories to expunge their Euro nightmares? Perhaps nothing demonstrated more that the Tories were not interested in returning to power was in 2001 when the party’s grass roots membership chose IDS in spite of the fact that his opponent, Ken Clarke, had the support of more Tory MPs. For those who worked closely with Clarke at Westminster knew that whatever his views on Europe he had the capability to deal with Blair in a way that the hapless…

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The Great Conjurer does it again

The Great Conjurer does it again

After the French NON will Blair now serve a full third term? In April last year Tony Blair came under huge criticism for agreeing to a UK referendum on the EU constitution. Many commentators saw the sort-term gain of taking the wind out of Conservatives’ sails ahead of the Euro election campaign but Tony Blair would still have to deliver on the commitment. A prevalent view was that he had made a huge mistake but now the whole treaty issue…

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UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%

UK Spread-betters put their money on NON by 9%

The Balance of Money prediction on the French Referendum: NON 54.5 % OUI 45.5% Because French law bans opinion polls on election day and the day before gamblers are having to rely on the surveys that were published on Friday. And even though two of these showed a weakening in the NON position the mood of UK gamblers is to put their money on the treaty being rejected by quite a big margin. IG Index has the current YES spread…

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Which French pollster do you believe?

Which French pollster do you believe?

Is there money to be made on the gap narrowing? Two of the three final polls on the French EU Constitution referendum have shown a slight move back to the YES camp although NO is still firmly ahead. These are the surveys: TNS-Sofres: Oui 49%, Non 51% CSA: Oui 48%, Non 52% Ifop: Oui 44%, Non 56% Although the overall message is that the treaty is going to be rejected there just might be value in a BUY YES bet…

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YouGov: UK opposition to EU Constitution growing

YouGov: UK opposition to EU Constitution growing

Will Blair stay longer if France votes NO? With the people of France voting tomorrow in their crucial referendum on the EU Constitution a YouGov poll UK opinion in today’s Daily Telegraph has NO 46%: YES 21%: when asked whether they “approve” the new Constitution. When the pollster last asked the question in January opinion was split by 45-25% so the margin has increased by five points since then. There is a sharp difference between supporters of the different parties….

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From next week..

From next week..

In March I took the opportunity of a job move from the University of Oxford to the University of York to take nearly three months off so I could work almost full time on Politicalbetting.com during the General Election. That period is now coming to an end as I start in my new role next week. This means that the site will revert to what it was before – something that I do in my spare time. I won’t normally…

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