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Month: October 2004

Bringing it all together

Bringing it all together

http://www.econ.umn.edu/~amoro/Research/presprobs.html As we move into the final thirty-six hours can we recommend this site which brings polls, electoral vote predictions and Tradesports prices all together. Everything is moving so fast and Betfair alone has now seen more than £4m of matched bets on the race. Bush 55.5 Kerry 44.5Iowa Political Futures Market Bush 54 Kerry 46 Tradesports exchange Bush 1.71 Kerry 2.38 Betfair exchange Bush 3/5 Kerry 5/4 UK bookmaker best price Polling round-up showing variance of margin on last…

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Is Blair really thinking of a February General Election

Is Blair really thinking of a February General Election

Betfair General Election Date Market – Jan-March 2005 There’s been a lot of activity on the election date markets following reports in the Sunday Times that Tony Blair is thinking of going to the country in February – not the 05/05/05 that everybody has been predicting. The above Betfair price chart shows the price fluctuations but it’s now settled down. Full prices here. Certainly there has been a good run of opinion polls for Labour taking the party out of…

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Are Kerry supporters like UK Tories – too embarrassed to admit it?

Are Kerry supporters like UK Tories – too embarrassed to admit it?

Could the pollsters’ UK failings hold the secret of next Tuesday? For political gamblers this election could not be closer and it’s going to come down to how you read the opinion polls – both state and national. Of the five latest, three have moved to Bush and two have moved to Kerry. Polling round-up showing variance of margin on last poll Bush 50 Kerry 45 Fox Kerry +2 Bush 47 Kerry 48 DCorps Bush +1 Bush 46 Kerry 47…

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How will the Osama video affect the election?

How will the Osama video affect the election?

Another video drives the markets Gamblers on both sides of the Atlantic have reacted in a fairly cool manner to the video tape of Osama Bin Laden that was released last night. There were sharp moves to Bush as people took the view that this would remind electors of the ever-present terrorist threat. Then there has been a gradual easing back after some commentators observed that Osama’s “return” was another reminder of a failure of the Bush administration to capture…

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Five reasons why we think Kerry will win

Five reasons why we think Kerry will win

Get your money on while there’s still value George Bush and John Kerry go into the final weekend of the 2004 Campaign with the polls, the betting and the electoral vote prediction on a knife edge. It should be hard to call but we are sticking with our long-standing view that more Americans want to get rid of George Bush than want to keep him. The Democrats are more hyped up even than the religous right (above). They still feel…

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Could these boxes decide the election?

Could these boxes decide the election?

Sharp move to Kerry after Iraq explosives video Betting on the US election on both sides of the Atlantic has taken a sharp turn to John Kerry after ABC News screen a video (above) purporting to show US troops with the missing Iraqi explosives nine days after Baghdad fell. The pro-War former Bush supporter and Sunday Times columnist, Andrew Sullivan, describes it like this – What we’re seeing is the slow exposure of the reality of the Iraq war. No:…

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Punters shun Bush after Iraq explosives revelations

Punters shun Bush after Iraq explosives revelations

Betfair Bush UPDATED – 0200 BST Friday There’ve been big moves against George Bush on the Betfair betting exchange following revelations on ABC TV that one of its crews had filmed the missing explosives in Iraq nine days after the fall of the country. This starts. The strongest evidence to date indicates that conventional explosives missing from Iraq’s Al-Qaqaa installation disappeared after the United States had taken control of Iraq. Barrels inside the Al-Qaqaa facility appear on videotape shot by…

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Who’ll benefit from Robert Kilroy-Silk’s UKIP split?

Who’ll benefit from Robert Kilroy-Silk’s UKIP split?

Given the impact that the rise of UKIP has had on UK politics in the past six months any move or split within the party has to be taken seriously. With both Labour and the Tories polling in the 30s small shifts in support could have a huge impact on the General Election. Yesterday’s ICM poll recorded support for UKIP up 1% at 4%. With its most public figure calling his party “barmy” then any reduction in the national support…

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